Boxing Day 2011 selections

Kempton:
12.50 Tetlami
13.25 Milgen Bay
14.00 Grands Crus (Feltham Novices Chase)
14.35 Rock On Ruby (Christmas Hurdle)
15.10 Long Run (King George)
15.40 Knight Pass

Leopardstown:
13.20 His Excellency
14.20 Bog Warrior

Limerick:
14.10 Sir Des Champs

Huntingdon:
12.15 Godsmejudge
15.00 Call Me A Star

Market Rasen:
13.35 Wide Receiver

Towcester:
12.50 Baile Anrai

Wincanton:
13.40 Deireadh Re
14.15 Swincombe Flame

Wetherby:
13.45 Knockara Beau

Supreme Novices Ante-post selection:

With Christmas on us and the firework filled festive period of racing about to begin, I thought it would be a good time to look back at a, mostly, stellar first half of the jumps season. But with this being a blog entitled 'A Supreme Novice', and with the time constraints of making minced pies and iced biscuits, I thought it would be appropriate to just review the novice hurdlers who are likely to be heading for the festival curtain raiser in March, at least for the time being. I will also be giving my views on the antepost potential of some of the main candidates as well as my current selection.

The novice hurdlers this season have been an exciting bunch. Over the minimum trip the most impressive novice has arguably been Prospect Wells. He won well on debut at Chepstow, even after being badly hampered, and was possibly an unlucky second at Cheltenham behind the previous season’s Aintree bumper winner Steps To Freedom. Then he marked himself down as a proper Supreme Novices candidate with his 4L defeat of All The Aces, a highly regarded Henderson novice. The victory was worth more than the bare form as he idled on the run-in. He was then sent off favourite for last week’s Ladbroke hurdle. It was an interesting route to take with a novice but the race was so valuable that it was too good an opportunity to miss. In the end, he ran a very respectable race in 4th. It was not run to suit as he needed a faster gallop and the ground was probably more testing than ideal. This then was by no means a knock to his Supreme Novices prospects; in fact, it may have been a boost seeing as he handled a large competitive field well and he is bound to improve for the faster pace that he will face in the Cheltenham Festival opener. However, this latest performance seems to put a ceiling on his ability, in that he is not the superstar he looked at Newbury but merely a very high class novice. He may well, therefore, be capable of winning at Cheltenham but there are others who are unexposed, potential superstars, and we haven’t got a clear idea of how good they could be.

The first of these has already been mentioned, Steps To Freedom. He is a horse with a good deal of speed and there is no question of him stepping up in trip, he is a 2m hurdler. As the best bumper horse from last season he was always going to be a Good prospect for hurdles. After winning a graded race in Ireland he came over to Cheltenham and just defeated the aforementioned Prospect Wells. He may have been fortunate but he showed a lot of class in the way he travelled and quickened. Jessie Harrington's charge also displayed battling qualities which had been thought lacking. Steps To Freedom is likely to keep improving over hurdles but due to a successful flat season over the summer he will now have a break and we will be able to gauge his improvement in March.

Others who have made an impression and are likely to be thought of as  contenders for the 2m novice crown include; Colour Squadron (may want softer ground than likely to get at Cheltenham), Montbazon (will keep on improving with time, contender), Tetlami (talented, still unexposed, runs Boxing Day) Hazy Tom (ground too soft and pulled too hard last time, capable of very smart form) Sous Les Cieux (likely to want further, still unexposed though) and Cinders And Ashes (unlikely to be quite good enough). There is also the untapped potential of the antepost favourite for the Supreme, Waaheb and another well regarded bumper horse, Samain. Neither has run over hurdles yet but both could be exciting.

The horse I am most keen on from an antepost perspective is Simonsig. He has yet to run over the minimum trip over hurdles but he has shown more than enough speed in his two runs over 2 miles 4f. On the basis of these efforts it appears that he travels as well as any horse in training. He won first time out at Ascot with supreme ease & didn't appear to have a race. Travelling smoothly and jumping fluently throughout, Simonsig resembled so many of his trainers top class novice hurdlers from recent seasons. Spirit Son was probably the best novice hurdler from last season and he characterised his performances with impeccable jumping, a trait which Simonsig seems to possess as well. It was not a great novice hurdle at Ascot but he won it in the style you would expect from such an impressive bumper winner. Next he went to Sandown over the same trip in the hottest novice hurdle of the season so far. Here he finished second to the horse by which all middle distance novice hurdling form will likely be measured, Fingal Bay. Through the race he travelled so well it was almost menacing. He again jumped fluently and approaching 2 out he and the winner were clear. Barry Geraghty's mount was travelling by far the best, I was wondering at this point how far he was going to win by, yet all the confidence of the grey gelding’s jockey evaporated after clearing 2 out as the small advantage Fingal Bay held wasn't closing. Geraghty's poise turned to panic and Fingal Bay, who had been off the bridle for a while, kept finding more. Simonsig was possibly out-battled but, definitely, outstayed. The connections felt Simonsig would benefit from more experience, which is certainly the case. It has also been suggested that he would benefit from a drop in trip. Of course Henderson must go down the shorter route in order for Simonsig to be a Supreme Novices player. I'm convinced he will do this for 3 reasons: 1) Henderson is keen to avoid Fingal Bay again. 2) Henderson has the likes of Broadbackbob, Hadrian's Approach and Molotof who are all likely to go down the Neptune Investments Novices’ hurdle route. 3) Simonsig's style of running, with his strong travelling, slick jumping and potent turn of foot, all suggests he it's likely to be at his best in a strongly run 2 miles. As a result, when this plan is confirmed I can see him being significantly shorter than the 14/1 available now.

Inevitably there will be problems hitting some of the main protagonists and some will boost their claims while the claims of others will be diminished. With so many weeks, and so many trial races yet to be run, between now and March one can never be confident, but at this stage I am comfortable in advising Simonsig as the most likely winner of the William Hill Supreme Novices' Hurdle 2012.