Supreme Novices Update: Vaniteux, Vautour and Rathvinden

It is possible this week had little bearing on the Supreme Novices’ in March. Unlike with last week’s Grade 1 Royal Bond there were no ‘trials’ to speak of for the two milers while the Neptune was well catered for. Faugheen looks to be heading that way after his saunter round Navan, but were he to drop back to two miles the Supreme would be a realistic target given the impression he has made despite his inexperience.

In England, Vaniteux’s display at Sandown was perhaps the most meaningful in Supreme terms. He readily saw off second season novice Vibrato Valtat, who had shaped well in a fiercely competitive novice handicap at Cheltenham on his seasonal reappearance, and the pair came clear of the third Champagne At Tara, Jonjo O’Neill’s well-regarded prospect who had finished fourth in a hot Cheltenham bumper on his previous start. Vaniteux, now in the care of Nicky Henderson having acquitted himself adequately in two point-to-points, hurdled fluently throughout the contest until the second last where a not insignificant error knocked him back on his heels as he was about to join the lead. He had to be vigorously ridden to assert late on but once he did the victory appeared almost emphatic, as Vibrato Valtat had no response to his rival’s superior stamina and ability. Without the mishap at the penultimate flight Vaniteux would have run out an even more taking winner. His jumping, on the evidence of one run of course, is accomplished, albeit clearly not infallible, and he is blessed with more speed than one might expect from a gelding with his background. This son of eminent, but sadly departed, stallion Voix Du Nord possesses the right mix of attributes to make a talented two mile novice hurdler though probably not at the level required for a Supreme contender. Even accounting for the late blunder, Vaniteux should have dispatched the formerly disappointing juvenile Vibrato Valtat if he has graded Festival aspirations. The distance back to Champagne At Tara may be cause for encouragement, he has shown the potential to make it at a higher grade, but he was never really put into the race on Saturday with future targets over further almost certainly in mind.  At this stage Nicky Henderson also has other, more viable candidates for the Supreme, a factor which could see this four-year-old targeted elsewhere.

Another trainer with no shortage of viable candidates, some would say a plethora, is Willie Mullins. He gets stronger in the novice hurdling department by the week and the depth of his squad is such that arguably his best novice hurdlers, like the aforementioned Faugheen and Champion Bumper winner Briar Hill, could avoid the Supreme. This weekend Mullins unleashed two more exciting types over hurdles and it is difficult to decide who was more impressive, Vautour or Rathvinden. Of the two, Vautour is the only one quoted for the Supreme and his smooth success in the four-year-olds only contest at Navan on Saturday marks him out as one to take seriously. His hurdling experience in France stood him in good stead here as his jumping was quick and accurate and he settled immediately. His experience gave him an advantage over many but even so he still had far too much for this field as, with the most minimal of urgings, he cruised clear from the last. Often maiden hurdles of this type are big on numbers but low on quality outside of one standout, however on this occasion Vautour may have beaten some reasonable novices. The second and fourth had both won Punchestown bumpers while the third had won his only other race in France. The first four in this field have potential in this realm; it is unlikely to be a case of Willie Mullins’ charge beating ‘nothing’.

Willie Mullins has done particularly well with the progeny of Robin Des Champs and Vautour is another. He has always been held in high esteem and plenty was expected of him despite being beaten on his two starts in France. Both those defeats came on heavy and it is likely he improved for better ground faced at Navan, as offspring of this sire often do. We will inevitably learn more about his ability as he rises in class but it is hard to imagine he won’t be able to cope against the more established Irish novices and it will be interesting to see what his conqueror on his final French start, Black River, achieves once given another opportunity by Paul Nicholls, having fallen at Newbury. There are very few things to hold against Vautour, his hurdling is sound and effective, he settles nicely, has the speed for two miles and handles any ground with preference for a quicker surface, akin to one he would probably face at Cheltenham. Like nearly everything at the Mullins base in Closutton he is one to be positive about, as for a Supreme bid? We will just have to wait for Willie’s plans.  

It would be nice to think Rathvinden will be among those plans as he races in the colours of Ronnie Bartlett, colours that would have already been carried to victory in the Supreme had connections made the right decision with Simonsig (although saying the Neptune was the wrong decision would be ridiculous). The five-year-old son of Heron Island came from the same source as Simonsig, Northern Irish trainer Ian Ferguson. Bartlett bought the horse following a resounding success at Downpatrick in June. The race was only a lady riders’ bumper but one can imagine Ferguson recommending the gelding to his new owner and Rathvinden was soon in the care of Willie Mullins. The plan had been to go straight over hurdles yet his work had been so good they went for a bumper under a penalty at Cork. Settled in second for most of the way he travelled strongly until two out where he was shaken up and a sharp turn-of-foot saw he burst clear. That was a striking twelve length win for his new trainer and he was sent back over course and distance on Sunday to do the same again, this time over obstacles. His jumping was more than sufficient if not, understandably, as confident as Vautour’s and, having hugged the inside in behind the leaders for the rest of the contest, he was switched out as he approached the third last at which a brave jump saw him hit the front. The race was as good as over at that point as his rider Paul Townend, the only one not hard at work, looked round for non-existent dangers. His notable acceleration reappeared as he put distance between him and those toiling in behind.

Rathvinden was barely shaken up here over two miles and produced no shortage of speed. Whether this will prove his optimal trip this season is debatable. I feel he looks at home over two miles but then the opposition he has taken on has been rather lacking. His acceleration might be too easy to overplay given the limitations of those in behind and he is seeing out his races well enough not to have any concerns about an increase in distance. In fact, the Downpatrick Ladies race was over two-and-a-quarter miles, whilst he fell at the last when with every chance over three miles in his only point. Rathvinden is just quoted for the Neptune at the Festival and a step up in trip might be inescapable but, much like Simonsig, I would be keen to see him tested against better rivals over the minimum trip.

Supreme Novices Update: Newbury, Ascot, Fairyhouse and Kelso

It was an important week for Supreme Novices candidates and it was probably the last time we were likely to see those with real chances running before the festival. There is still the chance that one or two of the very good four year olds could target the race following the Adonis on Saturday but the Triumph hurdle is naturally the more obvious target.

Newbury

On free-day Friday at Newbury we saw Darlan in the Betfair Hurdle and Montbazon, Vulcanite and Colour Squadron in a particularly competitive Novices event. Darlan had been around 9/1 second favourite behind Zarkandar for a while going into the Betfair Hurdle but he was weak on the day and drifted to 12/1. There were doubts over the strength of his form, for all that he was unbeaten, as he had not yet been properly tested. Following his last victory on the bridle at Taunton, where he beat Jump City by half a length, Barry Geraghty was keen to play down the amount he was likely to find once asked a question. As a result it was quite surprising to see the handicapper bump him up 9lbs afterwards; this was reduced by 3lbs later on after Jump City ran so poorly next time out, but it was too late for Friday’s (rearranged) race as the weights were already published.  

Darlan

We didn’t know how good Darlan actually was in the run up to last week’s run and after the race we are still none the wiser. Held up in the last third of the field for most of the way, McCoy kept Darlan wide presumably to give him a good view of his hurdles and ironically he jumped well. Often gaining ground at his obstacles, he travelled strongly and was not inconvenienced as the pace quickened. He moved sweetly through the field on the approach to the home turn and despite his inexperience he squeezed through a gap on the bend, putting him in third as they straightened up for the run-in. Travelling best of all, he reached two out just sharing the lead looking the most likely winner, before he failed to pick his legs up at the hurdle and took a crunching fall.

There is no way of knowing, until he runs again, what he would have found off the bridle. He may have found a great deal and still lost considering the race was won by a top Champion Hurdle prospect. Whatever happens, this performance will have enhanced Darlan’s reputation and at least his price for the Supreme no longer looks ridiculously short. This son of Milan is evidently a live contender for the traditional opener to the festival and if one knew that he had suffered no ill-effects from his fall then it would be folly to rule him out. It is quite a large ‘if’, however, as it was quite a major incident for a horse with so few miles on the clock and he may well remember such an unpleasant experience next time. It is also notable that he has made a mistake late on in every hurdle race he has run in. The least severe of these was at Cheltenham but he did lose momentum and he came slowly away from the flight, only managing to beat the vastly inferior High Storm by a nose. Whether he makes these mistakes because his jumping suffers as the pace quickens, or whether everything comes so easily to him that he loses concentration, is difficult to decide but it will be a nagging doubt in my mind particularly as he will face a number of fluent hurdlers at the festival. Had Darlan jumped the last two at Newbury fluently and won the Betfair Hurdle he would no doubt be favourite for the Supreme and the 12/1 available now would look massive. Sadly for connections he didn’t and still, for me, Darlan is too much of an unknown quantity to get involved with. Yet, at the same time, it would come as no shock were he to win handsomely in March.  

The very next race on Newbury’s card was a 2m Novices’ Hurdle involving three well regarded sorts all with great expectations. Montbazon came out comfortably on top but the race had a rather unsatisfactory feel to it. They went a slow pace early and when the three market principals drew alongside each other at the second last flight, the horse going best, Colour Squadron, fell.

Montbazon

I was huge fan of Montbazon as a bumper horse last season and I fully expected win the bumper at Cheltenham on his first start back but he was in need of the race and failed to impress in the paddock. Alan King’s charge clearly benefitted from the experience and his first run over hurdles came at Newbury where he was beaten into second on ground that didn’t suit by, the aforementioned, Colour Squadron. His next run came at Plumpton where he was sent off at 1/10 and won as expected but his jumping throughout was sloppy. This was concerning and, wrongly, I was worried that these frailties might find him out against a far better class of opposition but he looked an extremely competent hurdler on Friday. He travelled well through the race and when sent on to reach the leaders before two out he responded, before moving decisively clear of Vulcanite from the last.

Montbazon was rightly shortened significantly in the market for the Supreme and he looks to hold a sound each way chance. Beforehand on Friday he was the clear paddock pick, he was fit and imposing and looked a different horse to when I had last seen him at Cheltenham. If he stands out like this in March then he is worthy of consideration at least, especially as he appears to have the requisite stamina to win a Supreme Novices, but I am not convinced he is quite as classy as a number of other runners. The way he pulled away at Newbury was pleasing but he doesn’t have the burst acceleration that a few at the head of the Supreme market seem to. He looks more of a strong galloper and may be better suited to further in the long term. Finishing 7l clear of the well regarded Vulcanite is strong form on paper but Montbazon hasn’t excited me this year like he did last and I feel Vulcanite probably didn’t run best race either.

Vulcanite

Vulcanite was a little keen at Newbury and making his own pace is unlikely to have suited him. He was tiring from the last and without the departure of Colour Squadron he would have finished third. With a lead and a fast pace at Cheltenham I am sure he will be seen in a better light. I couldn’t be sure that he would reverse the form with Montbazon but I doubt there would be 7l in it. What he did show at Newbury, which bodes well for Cheltenham, was his exceptional jumping. He never broke stride, so quick and nimble, I would be surprised if anything could match him in this department in the Supreme having seen this display. The marked improvement from his first start where he ploughed through the first two hurdles is astonishing. Also worth noting is that since I last wrote about Vulcanite’s Supreme prospects his form has taken a notable boost. It was clear that his run behind Tetlami was strong form but when he thrashed a field at Southwell it was widely reported that he beat very little. In fact, 7l down in second was Spiekeroog who won his next start defeating Bourne in the process. Bourne then came out at Ascot on Saturday and was impressive in winning a competitive handicap hurdle. If Vulcanite’s run at Newbury can be forgiven then he looks a solid outsider for Cheltenham.

Colour Squadron

The second last had an impact on all the hurdle races at Newbury. Colour Squadron’s fall there was a major disappointment as he looked to be tanking along in between Montbazon and Vulcanite. Richard Johnson reined him back in an attempt to stop him hitting the front too soon on account of his antics at Sandown but before he could let him go the Old Vic gelding slithered on landing ejecting his rider. Much like Darlan you cannot be sure if Colour Squadron would have won but you have a much better idea as he had defeated Montbazon on the course previously so he would surely have been thereabouts. Of course, that is to forget the quirks he seems to have developed and with his violent hanging in the Grade 1 Tolworth he is surely one to avoid in any race of note, particularly the Supreme Novices Hurdle.

Ascot

At Ascot on Saturday a horse leapt into the reckoning for the Supreme with an emphatic display. Following two impressive wins, in a minor novice hurdle at Plumpton and a three runner juvenile hurdle at Ascot, Balder Succes was thought of as a possible Fred Winter or Aintree juvenile hurdle horse. He was running on Saturday against his elders, in a better race than he had previously faced, with the aim of discovering if he could be worthy of a place in the Triumph hurdle. He was so impressive on Saturday in beating the useful Captain Sunshine that he is now under consideration for the Supreme Novices against older horses. He jumped with real enthusiasm on Saturday and he again displayed an easy way of going which suggests a fast pace should suit. He showed how much class he’s got by quickening clear from the second last and at his age he should keep improving. I would have him ahead of Montbazon in terms of his chance in the Supreme and the four year old allowance can only be a benefit.

I must temper my enthusiasm by saying that the race somewhat fell apart at Ascot. His main rival Hazy Tom, whose form had worked out so well earlier in the season, was far too keen and in the end ran a horrible race. Similarly the second, Captain Sunshine was outpaced at an alarmingly early stage before staying on. It was a race that didn’t take much winning but he could do no more than win in the manner he did. Very few novice hurdlers have created such a good impression this season and at this stage the Supreme Novices looks the right race but as a juvenile hurdler there is the always chance he could run in the Triumph. This may well be an easier race and he now looks right among the best of his age group. I just believe Alan King would rather run him in the Supreme as Grumeti looks to have a better chance in the Triumph than Montbazon does in the Supreme and he has already proved himself against older horses. As a consequence, the 20/1 widely available (25/1 in a place) looks generous.  

Fairyhouse

On Wednesday two horses at the head of the Supreme Novices market ran and won impressively without coming off the bridle. The first was Galileo’s Choice at Fairyhouse, the second was Simonsig at Kelso. Galileo’s Choice won as he was entitled to, never coming off the bridle in defeating Becauseicouldntsee by 4 ½ lengths. As novice hurdle form that is nothing special seeing as the second is more a 4 mile chaser than a 2 mile hurdler but this son of Galileo travelled and quickened like the smart horse he had already shown to be. He is a Group 3 winner on the flat, looks to have plenty of speed and he clearly stays well as he showed when chasing home Sous Les Cieux in the Grade 1 Royal Bond. He should really have won that race however and he lacks the scope for improvement that a number of others in the Supreme have, including Midnight Game who finished well behind him that day. There probably won’t be many in the festival curtain raiser with as much class as him but he still hasn’t done or shown enough for me over hurdles to consider him as a likely winner and with his trainer’s record at the festival he is one at a short price that I am willing to strike a line through.

Kelso

In the Morebattle Hurdle we saw Simonsig win hard held from another staying chaser Knockara Beau. Run over 2m 2f this race told us very little about Simonsig that we didn’t already know. As my antepost selection for the Supreme I had been hoping for Nicky Henderson to drop him back in trip to 2m to really test his speed. Instead he ran over a trip in between that of the Neptune and the Supreme. Nicky Henderson still insists he has not decided which race to go for with this imposing grey but Barry Geraghty has already voiced a preference for the longer race as it will give a bit more time at his hurdles. Simonsig made mistakes at the final two hurdles at Kelso but there was an excuse for those as the sun was very low and he probably had trouble seeing the flights. Aside from those I have seen no issues with his jumping and in fact I see it as an asset. Geraghty clearly has his own interests in that he already has a strong ride in the Supreme, Tetlami, where as in the Neptune he has nothing outside of Simonsig that could challenge those at the head of the market. I can therefore forgive him this oversight but from all the evidence I have seen he must go for the Supreme. The major point is that in the Neptune he has to take on Fingal Bay again who comprehensively beat him at Sandown. While Simonsig may not have been at his very best that day I still don’t see him reversing the form over the longer trip. Furthermore, in the Neptune he will face Boston Bob and Monksland, two other outstanding candidates where as the Supreme has a far more open feel to it, for which he is favourite (as short as 6/1). In the Neptune, Simonsig will be one of the best, in the Supreme he will be THE best. This is a point trainer Nicky Henderson has already alluded to and for that reason I would still be inclined to think he will run in the shorter race. Hopefully this is not just wishful thinking.....

Supreme Novices Ante-post selection:

With Christmas on us and the firework filled festive period of racing about to begin, I thought it would be a good time to look back at a, mostly, stellar first half of the jumps season. But with this being a blog entitled 'A Supreme Novice', and with the time constraints of making minced pies and iced biscuits, I thought it would be appropriate to just review the novice hurdlers who are likely to be heading for the festival curtain raiser in March, at least for the time being. I will also be giving my views on the antepost potential of some of the main candidates as well as my current selection.

The novice hurdlers this season have been an exciting bunch. Over the minimum trip the most impressive novice has arguably been Prospect Wells. He won well on debut at Chepstow, even after being badly hampered, and was possibly an unlucky second at Cheltenham behind the previous season’s Aintree bumper winner Steps To Freedom. Then he marked himself down as a proper Supreme Novices candidate with his 4L defeat of All The Aces, a highly regarded Henderson novice. The victory was worth more than the bare form as he idled on the run-in. He was then sent off favourite for last week’s Ladbroke hurdle. It was an interesting route to take with a novice but the race was so valuable that it was too good an opportunity to miss. In the end, he ran a very respectable race in 4th. It was not run to suit as he needed a faster gallop and the ground was probably more testing than ideal. This then was by no means a knock to his Supreme Novices prospects; in fact, it may have been a boost seeing as he handled a large competitive field well and he is bound to improve for the faster pace that he will face in the Cheltenham Festival opener. However, this latest performance seems to put a ceiling on his ability, in that he is not the superstar he looked at Newbury but merely a very high class novice. He may well, therefore, be capable of winning at Cheltenham but there are others who are unexposed, potential superstars, and we haven’t got a clear idea of how good they could be.

The first of these has already been mentioned, Steps To Freedom. He is a horse with a good deal of speed and there is no question of him stepping up in trip, he is a 2m hurdler. As the best bumper horse from last season he was always going to be a Good prospect for hurdles. After winning a graded race in Ireland he came over to Cheltenham and just defeated the aforementioned Prospect Wells. He may have been fortunate but he showed a lot of class in the way he travelled and quickened. Jessie Harrington's charge also displayed battling qualities which had been thought lacking. Steps To Freedom is likely to keep improving over hurdles but due to a successful flat season over the summer he will now have a break and we will be able to gauge his improvement in March.

Others who have made an impression and are likely to be thought of as  contenders for the 2m novice crown include; Colour Squadron (may want softer ground than likely to get at Cheltenham), Montbazon (will keep on improving with time, contender), Tetlami (talented, still unexposed, runs Boxing Day) Hazy Tom (ground too soft and pulled too hard last time, capable of very smart form) Sous Les Cieux (likely to want further, still unexposed though) and Cinders And Ashes (unlikely to be quite good enough). There is also the untapped potential of the antepost favourite for the Supreme, Waaheb and another well regarded bumper horse, Samain. Neither has run over hurdles yet but both could be exciting.

The horse I am most keen on from an antepost perspective is Simonsig. He has yet to run over the minimum trip over hurdles but he has shown more than enough speed in his two runs over 2 miles 4f. On the basis of these efforts it appears that he travels as well as any horse in training. He won first time out at Ascot with supreme ease & didn't appear to have a race. Travelling smoothly and jumping fluently throughout, Simonsig resembled so many of his trainers top class novice hurdlers from recent seasons. Spirit Son was probably the best novice hurdler from last season and he characterised his performances with impeccable jumping, a trait which Simonsig seems to possess as well. It was not a great novice hurdle at Ascot but he won it in the style you would expect from such an impressive bumper winner. Next he went to Sandown over the same trip in the hottest novice hurdle of the season so far. Here he finished second to the horse by which all middle distance novice hurdling form will likely be measured, Fingal Bay. Through the race he travelled so well it was almost menacing. He again jumped fluently and approaching 2 out he and the winner were clear. Barry Geraghty's mount was travelling by far the best, I was wondering at this point how far he was going to win by, yet all the confidence of the grey gelding’s jockey evaporated after clearing 2 out as the small advantage Fingal Bay held wasn't closing. Geraghty's poise turned to panic and Fingal Bay, who had been off the bridle for a while, kept finding more. Simonsig was possibly out-battled but, definitely, outstayed. The connections felt Simonsig would benefit from more experience, which is certainly the case. It has also been suggested that he would benefit from a drop in trip. Of course Henderson must go down the shorter route in order for Simonsig to be a Supreme Novices player. I'm convinced he will do this for 3 reasons: 1) Henderson is keen to avoid Fingal Bay again. 2) Henderson has the likes of Broadbackbob, Hadrian's Approach and Molotof who are all likely to go down the Neptune Investments Novices’ hurdle route. 3) Simonsig's style of running, with his strong travelling, slick jumping and potent turn of foot, all suggests he it's likely to be at his best in a strongly run 2 miles. As a result, when this plan is confirmed I can see him being significantly shorter than the 14/1 available now.

Inevitably there will be problems hitting some of the main protagonists and some will boost their claims while the claims of others will be diminished. With so many weeks, and so many trial races yet to be run, between now and March one can never be confident, but at this stage I am comfortable in advising Simonsig as the most likely winner of the William Hill Supreme Novices' Hurdle 2012.