Cheltenian has a number of entries this week and his return
to action after a huge absence is imminent. If he can come through whichever
test he takes in the coming days he could have a tilt at the Supreme and his
current odds of 40/1 may appear generous. He was an extremely impressive winner
of a memorable, at least it was for me, Champion Bumper but sadly injury has intervened
since. It must be beyond frustrating for connections, with their patience
surely tested, hopefully they can be rewarded with a return to form and a full
season with him from next autumn.
Another memorable bumper personally, came this weekend last
year on the Betfair Ascot Chase card. That day Royal Guardsman flew home, winning emphatically
under Brendan Powell Jnr, his position as leading British hope in Cheltenham’s Champion
Bumper cemented. It has been downhill for him since then however and, having switched
from Colin Tizzard to his owner’s yard, this season has been largely
disappointing with three relatively tame efforts over hurdles. Finishing third in
Royal Guardsman’s Ascot bumper was the former point-to-point winner River
Maigue who just failed to see the race out having been keen and possibly
lacking experience. Unlike Royal Guardsman his career has been on the up since
that race, this season shaping into a serious contender for the Supreme
Novices' Hurdle.
Following his debut over hurdles in November,
when he needed the run and the experience, River Miague went to Kempton on Boxing Day where he sauntered to victory,
thrashing Champion Bumper runner up and fellow Supreme contender New Year’s
Eve. There have been doubts over the form but the ease in which he won and the
bullish reports from connections subsequently sent him near to the head of the
Supreme Novices' ante-post market. He was recently tipped by Pricewise of the Racing Post, thereby
solidifying his market position, and then on Saturday he was set the difficult
task of giving exciting juvenile hurdler Far West 9lb, thanks to the weight-for-age
allowance.
The race itself quickly turned into a farce as the leader,
Boss In Boots, all but ran out leaving Far West in front and a dawdle of a
gallop, to put it mildly. Jumping from both major protagonists was sound, Far
West was particularly athletic when he needed to be four out and two out, but it
wasn’t fluid with neither relishing the hurdles off such a slow pace. The race
culminated in a three furlong sprint which Far West managed to win having been ideally
placed in front by Ruby Walsh. Far West has been no stranger to making the running
since coming over from France but he has been doing it in very testing
conditions, whereas the ground had dried up somewhat on Saturday leaving the
ground quicker he had ever faced, albeit still officially soft. Paul Nicholls’ charge had
looked a strong stayer, often what you need in a Triumph Hurdle, but there were
concerns expressed by many including myself over whether others at Cheltenham
would have too much speed for him. Here, however, he seemingly dispelled those
suggestions, quickening away nicely from a well regarded rival off a leisurely gallop.
There are still slight doubts over his ability to handle much quicker ground,
which he could face at the Festival, but he does appear to possess a
significant blend of speed and stamina, along with a sound hurdling technique,
and is not one to dismiss lightly for the juvenile hurdlers’ showpiece at the Festival.
Having praised Far West for producing a surprising level of
speed there is the possibility he was flattered in that department. I have suggested
after each of his runs over hurdles that River Maigue is likely to improve
again once he tackles longer trips, especially given his pointing background
where he won over three miles as a four-year-old. As a result, Far West’s
ability to beat River Maigue for speed may not be the achievement it appeared on
first viewing. Ruby Walsh failed to force Far West comfortably clear on the run-in,
with the gap between first and second largely remaining the same. This might just
have been a case of two future stayers sprinting.
Such was the ridiculous nature of the race on
Saturday that it is almost impossible to learn anything about River Maigue’s
chances in the Supreme. It could indicate that he is not a potential star,
particularly over two miles, like a number of others heading for the Supreme,
but that is still rather harsh as the race was so far removed from what he will
face at Cheltenham it is hardly worth thinking about. Everything River Maigue
has shown gives me the idea that he will be seen to best effect off a strong
pace on ground quicker than soft. He is yet to face these conditions, hence it
would be remiss to judge him too harshly on what he has done so far, despite
failing to give out the wow factor of his stablemate My Tent Or Yours. Unlike so
many of his rivals, who will have had an overly long break before Cheltenham, River
Maigue will have had a recent run which is often a positive when it comes to
the Festival. There is the possibility of leaving a horse’s race behind with a
prep race too close to the Festival, but this quasi sprint was far from a
gruelling test.
He is held in high esteem by Barry Geraghty and
Nicky Henderson, while I have had a soft spot for him since his debut in this country
behind Royal Guardsman in the aforementioned bumper, yet despite desperately
trying to avoid dismissing River Maigue as a serious player and demean his
achievements, this upcoming Supreme looks likely to fall to a horse that is
exceptional over two miles. River Maigue is unlikely to prove that in my eyes
and I expect he will struggle to finish in the places next month despite being
a prospect I still want to follow closely. I am confident River Maigue has a
bright future, primarily over fences, he is just a shade unfortunate to be
among a particularly strong crop of novice hurdlers as in a normal year he
would be a major threat to all.
Betfair’s Super Saturday at Newbury lost some of its lustre
with the decisions not to run Long Run or Simonsig in their respective prep
races for the Festival. This left the card without a serious Arkle/Champion
Chase contender and Silviniaco Conti with a seemingly straightforward task in
the Denman Chase. Racing is rarely as simple as that though and it delivered
more than enough excitement to make up for Nicky Henderson’s cautiousness. Ironically
it was Henderson’s own My Tent Or Yours who really lit up Saturday’s card and
the whole weekend. Prior to the Betfair Hurdle My Tent Or Yours was a rare
beast in that his Cheltenham target was inevitable, evident from a very early
stage, well it was until he did that!
After his scintillating display on Saturday My Tent Or Yours
is quite rightly being talked up as a Champion Hurdle horse and he would not be
out of place in that field, rather a deserved leading contender. The one
issue left with Nicky Henderson’s charge, having sorted out his
jumping at Huntingdon, was his free-going nature. He had been over-exuberant
and keen in each run so far, the concern being whether he could find enough off
the bridle after using up so much energy in a race against higher quality
opposition. This frailty was harshly exposed by The New One in last season’s
exceptional renewal of the Aintree Bumper. My Tent Or Yours is a better,
stronger individual now but this was still a minor worry in a ‘competitive’
race like the Betfair Hurdle. As such I expected him to be settled in rear and
pick off the other runners one by one, much like he had tried and failed to do on
his last visit to Newbury. Maybe in the knowledge that there were few, if any,
horses involved willing to set the pace or maybe just with supreme confidence
AP McCoy crossed the tape, near enough, in front. From then on it was McCoy’s
mission to settle him, My Tent Or Yours still pulled against his rider but
McCoy was able drop him back as they left the home straight for the
first time. In a seemingly ideal position on the inside rail,
McCoy was in search of cover all the way up the back straight, just making sure
he could keep a lid on all the enthusiasm and speed underneath him. As the
field entered the home straight My Tent Or Yours had moved up into fifth and as
commentator Richard Hoiles pointed out it was plain to see that McCoy was
intent on slipstreaming the mare, Swing Bowler, for as long as he could. As
the leaders drew away from the third last My Tent Or Yours was still pulling as
he latched right onto the tail of Swing Bowler, before moving out to jump the
second last. At that moment there was only one horse catching the eye and it
became a matter of how far. Finally let go by McCoy at the last, the Desert
Prince gelding rapped the hurdle as his acceleration got the better of him
before powering clear under hands and heels, eventually easing down to a five
length victory.
There is little more that he could have done here, his
jumping was neat and fast, particularly at the second where he was unsighted thereby
forcing him in close to the hurdle but he was extraordinarily nimble over it,
thanks in no small part, I am sure, to AP McCoy’s intensive schooling. My Tent
Or Yours found plenty off the bridle, putting an eight or nine length gap on
the field as he was let down, before being eased. Despite the steady pace set
the form could not look much stronger, with nothing in there holding it down
and three thoroughly progressive handicappers filling the places. Cotton Mill
had been well fancied for this, primarily on the back of his run in the Neptune
where he was travelling nearly as well as Simonsig at the second last before
running out in spectacular fashion. His impressive performance here does make
the decision to run Cotton Mill over three miles straight after his Cheltenham
calamity seem somewhat perplexing and with connections' desire to avoid heavy
ground at all costs, the rain, sleet and snow which greeted us at Newbury on
Saturday can’t have benefitted him. Neither was the race run especially to suit
as he would have preferred a stronger pace, he lacked the speed of the winner,
but then most jumpers do, and arguably Swing Bowler before his stamina kicked
in, finishing strongly into second. There is clearly more to come, even before
taking into account that this was his first run for 302 days, and he is an
exciting prospect wherever he goes. A trip to the Champion Hurdle would not be unthinkable
and were My Tent Or Yours to revert to novice company he would be a fascinating
barometer of the Betfair Hurdle form. This could well be one of the strongest handicap
hurdles of the whole season and it must be wise to consider strongly the likes
of Swing Bowler and Dark Lover for the County Hurdle, Village Vic for the Coral
Cup and even Caid Du Berlais for the Fred Winter, having shown up well for a
long way despite running wide and being out of the weights.
I am struggling to find any negatives around My Tent Or
Yours' chances for the Supreme Novices Hurdle and he is a worthy favourite,
having usurped fellow JP McManus purchase Jezki. Ominously for his rivals, My
Tent Or Yours has shown that he handles testing conditions while he is likely
to improve for a quicker surface. He just has so much pace and as I suggested
after his last run there was nothing in the Betfair
Hurdle that could live with him. The only question left for me about My Tent Or
Yours is whether something like the completely unexposed Un Atout is better,
although the question that might prove more pertinent in the lead up to the
Cheltenham Festival is whether it is Un Atout’s fellow Closutton
inmate Hurricane Fly who is better?
Also in the care of Willie Mullins in
Closutton, County Carlow is last season’s Champion Bumper winner Champagne
Fever. Every indication was that he was going to prove to be substantially
better over further than two miles, especially his defeat to Jezki at the start
of the season where it looked only a matter of time before he was stepped up in
trip on his way to Cheltenham for either the Neptune or Albert Bartlett novice
hurdles. Yet on his first run over two-and-a-half miles he ran deplorably
although that was down to a respiratory tract infection discovered subsequently.
Understandably Willie Mullins gave him a reasonable break to recover from his illness and it was only after apparently impressing in a piece of work that the
trainer decided to run him in the Deloitte Novice Hurdle (Leopardstown) on
Saturday instead of the aforementioned Un Atout. This was over two miles and
two furlongs and was assumed to be Champagne Fever’s prep for the Neptune,
especially with the presence of Pique Sous and Mozoltov, alongside Un Atout, as
Supreme Novice contenders. Such is the owner’s strength in the novice hurdle
divisions, however, he already has leading fancies in the Neptune and Albert
Bartlett. With the desire to have a runner in each Festival race, Champagne
Fever’s winning form over two miles at Cheltenham and his proximity to long time Supreme
Favourite Jezki on just his second start over hurdles, it is hard to argue Rich
Ricci’s decision isn’t justified.
During Saturday’s race the fall, at the
second, of main rival Waaheb handed Champagne Fever a relatively
straightforward task, assuming he was none the worse for his previous
infection. Under an aggressive ride from new pilot Paul Townend, this willing
son of Stowaway set a tempo likely to expose any weakness in his opposition and
bring his strength, stamina, to the fore. Aside from a not insignificant
mistake at the first his jumping was accomplished and if he is to try similar
tactics in the Supreme his jumping will need to be absolutely foot perfect.
Here it nearly was as he took lengths out of his challengers at most obstacles,
there is a special chaser in there waiting to get out and it is a shame we
didn’t see him over fences this season. All bar Bright New Dawn were left
toiling in behind Champagne Fever, whose prodigious galloping was too much for
the rest to handle. Bright New Dawn did look a serious danger in on the run
up to the last, having travelled sweetly with the guidance of Davy Russell, but
the victory was sealed by the gangly grey with another fluent leap at the final flight,
as he was always going to outstay his Dessie Hughes trained opponent.
Ruby Walsh has a very tough decision to make
as he has the option of riding Dodging Bullets, for Paul Nicholls, and Pique
Sous, Mozoltov and now Champagne Fever, for Willie Mullins, in the Supreme. I
would suggest he rides Champagne Fever as there is no doubt in my mind that he
is the best horse in that foursome, the worry would be whether he will be
effective enough over the minimum trip. The Neptune looks made for him but with
the presence of the inimitable Pont Alexandre, the Supreme it will have to be. Whether
he can reverse early season form with Jezki is highly doubtful and Bright New
Dawn gave that horse another boost having been eight lengths behind in the Future
Champions Novice Hurdle. There is also the matter of whether Champagne Fever
can hold off a number of far speedier types as he is sent for home, but such is
his class I suspect there is every chance that he can hold off enough to be right
there at the last and whatever happens it will be a tantalising spectacle.
On Sunday, we saw a highly anticipated clash
between two more horses that, earlier in the season, I had expected to go down
the Neptune novices hurdle route. Melodic Rendezvous and Puffin Billy were both
comfortable winners on their last start, winning a grade 1 and a grade 2
respectively. Both are extremely well regarded by connections and both sets were
convinced they were going to win at Exeter. Despite Melodic Rendezvous being
the grade 1 winner it was Puffin Billy who was sent off the odds on favourite.
Oliver Sherwood’s son of Heron Island had looked awesome in two bumpers and two
novice hurdles to date, showing a combination of pace and power that marked him
out as a danger to all with Cheltenham on the horizon, yet it was the locally trained
(to Exeter) Melodic Rendezvous who came out comprehensively on top.
Nick Schofield was under the impression that
Puffin Billy was more of a stayer than his mount Melodic Rendezvous. Believing
he could beat him for speed Schofield tracked Puffin Billy nearly throughout
the contest, only making his challenge at the last. The torrential rain in the
morning had left the ground bordering on bottomless but both of the main
protagonists in this five runner affair had experience on this sort of surface,
as a result it was not expected to inconvenience either and it is hard to say
it did. Melodic Rendezvous again jumped well throughout, he is a natural
hurdler, and Puffin Billy seemingly improved his hurdling technique but one
serious blunder two out probably sealed his fate. At the last the two were side
by side but Leighton Aspell had been hard at Puffin Billy for most of the
straight whilst Nick Schofield had been motionless on Melodic Rendezvous. Once
asked he quickened away instantly, leaving the struggling Puffin Billy for
dead. On the face of it this was an exciting performance from a progressive
novice and he has definitely improved physically through the season (compared
to when I saw him at Cheltenham anyway) but the manner in which Puffin Billy made such hard
work of it from so far out suggested that there was something amiss with him
and he was later discovered to be lame, thus explaining the lack of correlation
between how he had run up until then and how he ran on Sunday.
It is far from ideal for Puffin Billy and his
connections’ Cheltenham aspirations to run such a lacklustre race so near to
the Festival but it would be wrong to judge him on this performance and he is
still a hugely promising horse. It would also, therefore, be wrong to draw too
many hard and fast conclusions about the winner Melodic Rendezvous. What I can
reiterate is that he jumps well and he clearly has a dangerous turn of foot but
he is yet to show me that he has the star potential that will be necessary to
win this season’s Supreme. I was concerned after his grade 1 win that I could be underestimating him, and that is still the case
but it is just too easy to knock the Tolworth form, while he was lucky in my
opinion to win at Cheltenham and on hurdling debut he was defeated by Mr Mole
who has just won a minor handicap off a mark of 126. Now, that fails to tell the
whole story as Mr Mole is another promising sort who won emphatically but that
has to be a concern for Melodic Rendezvous supporters, especially as it was on
the quickest ground he has faced over hurdles. Were Cheltenham to be heavy I
think he would suddenly become an interesting player but I expect he will
struggle on a sounder surface against the calibre of opposition expected at the Festival.
Following
Sunday’s win bookmakers shortened up Melodic Rendezvous into 8/1 generally for
the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle. This was an overreaction especially as his only
rival in the listed race was pronounced lame soon after. With a foot problem
diagnosed and confirmed later this race at Exeter was an uninformative contest.
It should not have affected his price to such an extent, I see him as a 12/1
shot at best especially when there are murmurings that he could switch to the
Neptune on quicker ground.
We find ourselves with only five
weeks until the big day. Before you know it the Festival will have been and
gone, leaving us with thoughts of the upcoming flat season. While Aintree will
be an entertaining interlude, the prospect of the Cheltenham Festival ending is
grim, to say the least. In reality that is still some way off, for all that it
won’t feel that way once it arrives, and there are still trial races to digest and
consider. One such trial was the Moscow Flyer Novice Hurdle at Punchestown on
Sunday won last year by Trifolium, an unlucky third in the Supreme, and
previously by Mikael D’Haguenet for Willie Mullins. Mullins won the race once
again this season but it would be bold to predict a similarly authoritative display
at Cheltenham from this year’s winner, Mozoltov.
Mozoltov was among the best Irish
bumper horses last season despite being soundly beaten three times. His defeat
at the hands of Clonbanan Lad may give an indication to what level he is capable
of reaching in novice hurdles but that would be unfair. Mozoltov has always
been highly regarded but he did not quite have the form to back up his
reputation until he ran his best race during the Punchestown Festival, where he
finished close to Melodic Rendezvous but a significant distance behind
Champagne Fever. That looks a level below what is required for a Supreme,
despite how strongly or otherwise Melodic Rendezvous is fancied. This weekend’s
run also has the appearance of being a level or two below what will be required.
On his first outing this season Mozoltov demolished an atrocious field divulging
little about himself in the process, other than he could jump. Again on Sunday
his hurdling was fluent and brisk and he consistently came away from the
hurdles faster than his better fancied rival Don Cossack, even when Davy
Russell found the right stride. Willie Mullins said afterwards that the Supreme
would be his next race, perhaps surprising given that he had been slightly under
the radar in terms of novice hurdlers. There has not been the same hype and
talk about him that has befallen some of his stablemates and maybe it was naive
not to enter him into one’s calculations for the Festival opener. Yet Mullins
did say at the start of the season that Mozoltov was a chaser in the making and
even after this weekend I would struggle to make a case for him winning at
Cheltenham based on what he’s done, only on what he might do.
The beaten favourite on Sunday
was Don Cossack. He is surely destined to be better over further and his
jumping can only hold him back over smaller obstacles, particularly at this
trip where speed is paramount and slick jumping is necessitated. However, he
already proved that he was inferior to the current standard bearer over
two-and-a-half miles, Pont Alexandre, last time at Navan and it is difficult to
envisage him recreating that awesome impression he left in bumpers, while
hurdling over the minimum trip. In bumpers Don Cossack took people’s
imagination, he left an indelible, powerful mark leading many to assume his
ascent to the top over obstacles would be swift. On debut this season, there
was little to dissuade this notion other than a certain sloppiness in his
hurdling technique, but the ground was lamentable and it could be quickly
brushed aside by connections and onlookers. Unfortunately, next time out
against the imperious Neptune bound Pont Alexandre the problem appeared more
chronic. There was certainly improvement in that area on Sunday but not enough
to suggest that he will reach the heights over hurdles that once seemed
inevitable.
The faith shown in him by his talented
trainer is tough, possibly foolish, to ignore. This season might appear
disappointing when one considers what was expected but Gordon Elliott always
maintained he was a future chaser from the top drawer and this is hard to
refute especially when taking his physique and running style into account. He
is a powerful galloper who gives too much air to his hurdles in the manner of a
chaser, with fences between him and his goal there may be a different animal
waiting to be unleashed. Don Cossack is not the novice hurdler that many had
hoped for but the seemingly limitless potential that he possessed in bumpers
could be fulfilled over fences once he begins the job he was bred for. When put
into the perspective that Don Cossack is effectively a three mile chaser, his
hurdling career to date has been far from underwhelming.
Ned Buntline is another well
regarded novice but of the well-fancied triumvirate at Punchestown he was the most
disappointing. McCoy was at pains to hold him up right off the pace, his keen
going tendencies were plain to see, but from last he moved stylishly into third
following a big leap two out before fading relatively quickly as the front two
quickened clear. Ned Buntline has not looked devoid of pace in his career,
hence it could be that he struggled with the ground, failing to pick up as well
as his rider might have expected. There will be improvement to come on a
sounder surface but this display arguably rules out enough improvement to get
competitive in what looks a competitive Supreme and it is possible to say that
he, to some extent, holds the form down for the first and second. A convincing win over Urano (subsequently beaten
by the lesser known Legal Exit) on his last run prior to this weekend, Ned
Buntline was back on track having shocked connections previously when beaten by
Bright New Dawn at Fairyhouse. But, while an extremely useful and still
somewhat unexposed novice hurdler, Bright New Dawn was comfortably dispatched
by Jezki, current favourite for the Supreme, on his next start. Jessica
Harrington’s five-year-old was unextended and Ned Buntline’s conqueror was all
of eight lengths behind. Once his chance was gone Ned Buntline was caringly
handled by McCoy here and he was only beaten six-and-a-half-lengths. If
Mozoltov or even Don Cossack had pretensions on the Supreme crown they needed
to pull further clear. The way Jezki has finished off his races over hurdles
indicates that we are someway off seeing his limit whereas Mozoltov was all out
to see off Don Cossack.
Willie Mullins’ charge may prove
to be better than this, with Ruby Walsh suggesting afterwards that he wasn’t
entirely enjoying the ground but he has only run so far on soft or heavy ground
and his best performance, up until this weekend, had been on essentially
unraceable ground at the Punchestown Festival. I wouldn’t be desperate to
suggest that he will improve for the quicker ground normally prevalent at
Cheltenham. Mozoltov may improve for the faster pace and bigger field in the
Supreme, he was ridden quite aggressively at Punchestown and could be more
impressive were he to be held up off a stronger gallop, but it is all about how
much and while his price may appear tempting on the face of it now, once we
have seen next weekend’s events it may well look on the mean side.