Supreme Novices Update: Tolworth Hurdle review

Underestimation is something I am far less guilty of than overestimation. I can easily get too excited about a horse that impresses, go overboard with a taking performance, but it is more unusual for me to be overly negative about a horse with major Cheltenham Festival pretensions. Last season, while he was a solid horse with strong bumper form and a sequence of relatively impressive wins over hurdles, I couldn’t believe Cinders And Ashes would be good enough to win the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle. There was no reason to think he was incapable of making the frame, I just assumed, from what I had seen, that there would be a couple of classier candidates able to see him off up the Cheltenham hill. This season I appear to be in a similar situation with Melodic Rendezvous as, so far, he has done little to put one off expecting a big show in March, but I can’t see him having the pace or the class to take the main prize, whether that be the Supreme or the Neptune.

On Saturday, Melodic Rendezvous took the step up to grade 1 company over hurdles in his stride, running out a convincing winner of the Tolworth Hurdle. His grade 1 bumper form augured well but his starting price and position in the market (only third favourite) suggested that many, including myself, were expecting a different outcome. When discussing Melodic Rendezvous’ last race I had been very positive about runner up, Royal Boy. With the extra experience from that first run over hurdles behind him I had expected the form to be reversed with Jeremy Scott’s charge, and that seemed to be the general consensus seeing as Royal Boy started the 5/2 favourite. However, Melodic Rendezvous never looked in much danger of defeat on Saturday, with Royal Boy a well beaten third. Receiving a nice lead from Nicky Henderson’s six-year-old, Melodic Rendezvous settled comfortably in about fourth for most of the journey. His jumping was slick and economical, there was no semblance of an error and this is clearly a strength especially when one compares his jumping to those around him in the Supreme market. As Royal Boy weakened rapidly, he picked up well between the final two obstacles and from the half furlong pole Nick Schofield asked him to pull away from Pendra and the Where Or When gelding responded in good style. There is much to like about Melodic Rendezvous, he is tough, has a willing attitude, he clearly stays well and it is hard to argue that he wasn’t comfortably the best horse at Sandown. The question is whether that is hugely significant in terms of the Supreme Novices hurdle.

In the run up to Saturday’s race, the Tolworth looked a reasonably strong renewal and if Court Minstrel and Royal Boy had, in my view, ran anywhere near their previous levels of form then it would be hard to knock such a performance but I am quite convinced they did not. Melodic Rendezvous’ previous runs were not strong enough in form terms to suggest he was a Cheltenham Festival winner in waiting, particularly his debut run over hurdles where he finished behind Mr Mole. He is definitely improving, some would say rapidly, but even having won this grade 1 he is still yet to show me enough to suggest he is the Cheltenham candidate that his lofty antepost market positions suggest.

In second at Sandown was Pendra, admittedly four-and-a-half-lengths away, who has not shown enough to mark him out as a serious grade 1 contender. Since he ran away with his bumper Charlie Longsdon’s five-year-old has advertised his novice hurdle credentials with two wins from two starts, both at Plumpton, but his run prior to the Tolworth Hurdle was a three-and-three-quarter-lengths defeat of Workbench, trained by Paul Nicholls. Pendra took his time in putting that race to bed and I am sure Nicholls would have Workbench way down his novice hurdle pecking order.

Pendra already looks the sort who will improve for further, having attempted to make the running on Saturday in order to make use of his apparent stamina, and his ideal trip will surely prove to be nearer three miles than two. He was not simply brushed aside by Melodic Rendezvous either as, aided by Noel Fehily’s urgings, Pendra battled for much of the run in, whereas one would expect a serious candidate for Cheltenham to dismiss this future chaser with more authority than the winner did. It is fair to say the ground was extremely testing at Sandown and that would have contributed to Pendra’s performance while hampering the efforts of a classier Melodic Rendezvous. The emphasis became far more on stamina and that points to a step up in trip for Melodic Rendezvous but his impressive trainer, Jeremy Scott, is aiming more towards the Supreme having proved effective not only over two miles, but also at Cheltenham.

If Melodic Rendezvous does improve for the better ground one assumes he will face in March, as his trainer and jockey have stated on numerous occasions, then it is possible that we are a distance away from seeing his true ability. His record suggests that he handles testing ground, in fact he may well thrive on it having run so well behind Champagne Fever at Punchestown on, near enough, waterlogged ground. In two grade ones on heavy ground he has finished second and first while his only defeat over hurdles to date was on good-to-soft ground. He might just be the horse to look to in a heavy ground Supreme, these are the only conditions in which I could entertain backing him, but this would also encourage some of those contemplating the Neptune to drop down in trip, providing Melodic Rendezvous with an even tougher test. As nice as it is to see a different trainer competing with the National Hunt juggernauts, I am yet to see the zip and class necessary to get me excited about his Cheltenham prospects but then I felt exactly the same way about Cinders And Ashes last season.

For many the disappointment of Saturday’s race was Poet. There was a widely held belief that Poet was ultra impressive on his hurdling debut and that his flat class would inevitably result in him becoming a high class hurdler. I thought he was all out at Newbury to defeat, the subsequently beaten, Veloce and there was this myth about his ‘brilliant’ jumping, which looked no more than adequate to me. Poet ran as well as I expected he would on Saturday and, while this was an admirably ambitious target, if he is to make a mark over hurdles it will have to be at a much lower level.

The disappointment of the race for me in the Tolworth was the aforementioned favourite, Royal Boy. Last time, at Cheltenham, he was just trapped in behind the rest of the field just as the pace quickened. Once he found his passage up the rail Royal Boy was running down Melodic Rendezvous all the way to the line. It looked as if inexperience and a slight lack of pace cost him. A grade 1 on his second start under rules was always going to be a tall order but he had looked so promising at Cheltenham it was hoped, and in my case expected, that he would reverse the placings with Melodic Rendezvous. Unfortunately for his supporters, the exuberant jumping display was nowhere to be found. Conscious that he had been found wanting for pace at the death last time, Geraghty (on board Royal Boy) set out to be handy, if not make the running, in order to ensure that he was in the ideal position were it to turn into a sprint, having been left behind on debut. For a horse in need of the experience this tactic plainly backfired as he was still rather green while his jumping was abominable, losing ground at nearly every hurdle before he capitulated after second last. He still finished third, gaining invaluable experience, and in future with different tactics employed, preferably over further, he could still be a potent force in novice hurdles.

The final word goes to Court Minstrel who had the best form coming into Saturday’s race, having been impressive on his first start at Cheltenham and unlucky on his second behind Dodging Bullets and River Maigue. There were concerns expressed by his trainer, Evan Williams, that he may not handle the heavy ground and these concerns were borne out. He again travelled strongly through the race and came with a menacing run, along with the winner, on the approach to the second last but after being hemmed in for a few strides, his effort petered out tamely. A tired leap at the last nearly saw him come down, giving away third spot in the process. He is still a very useful novice hurdler, if not significantly better, and it would be folly to write him off just yet. His ideal conditions are relatively quick ground and a big field, until we see him face those he will be difficult to judge. Evan Williams seems to be favouring a go at a festival handicap in March and who could blame him? These defeats in unsuitable conditions can only land him on a very favourable mark.

Supreme Novices Update: Newbury, Ascot, Fairyhouse and Kelso

It was an important week for Supreme Novices candidates and it was probably the last time we were likely to see those with real chances running before the festival. There is still the chance that one or two of the very good four year olds could target the race following the Adonis on Saturday but the Triumph hurdle is naturally the more obvious target.

Newbury

On free-day Friday at Newbury we saw Darlan in the Betfair Hurdle and Montbazon, Vulcanite and Colour Squadron in a particularly competitive Novices event. Darlan had been around 9/1 second favourite behind Zarkandar for a while going into the Betfair Hurdle but he was weak on the day and drifted to 12/1. There were doubts over the strength of his form, for all that he was unbeaten, as he had not yet been properly tested. Following his last victory on the bridle at Taunton, where he beat Jump City by half a length, Barry Geraghty was keen to play down the amount he was likely to find once asked a question. As a result it was quite surprising to see the handicapper bump him up 9lbs afterwards; this was reduced by 3lbs later on after Jump City ran so poorly next time out, but it was too late for Friday’s (rearranged) race as the weights were already published.  

Darlan

We didn’t know how good Darlan actually was in the run up to last week’s run and after the race we are still none the wiser. Held up in the last third of the field for most of the way, McCoy kept Darlan wide presumably to give him a good view of his hurdles and ironically he jumped well. Often gaining ground at his obstacles, he travelled strongly and was not inconvenienced as the pace quickened. He moved sweetly through the field on the approach to the home turn and despite his inexperience he squeezed through a gap on the bend, putting him in third as they straightened up for the run-in. Travelling best of all, he reached two out just sharing the lead looking the most likely winner, before he failed to pick his legs up at the hurdle and took a crunching fall.

There is no way of knowing, until he runs again, what he would have found off the bridle. He may have found a great deal and still lost considering the race was won by a top Champion Hurdle prospect. Whatever happens, this performance will have enhanced Darlan’s reputation and at least his price for the Supreme no longer looks ridiculously short. This son of Milan is evidently a live contender for the traditional opener to the festival and if one knew that he had suffered no ill-effects from his fall then it would be folly to rule him out. It is quite a large ‘if’, however, as it was quite a major incident for a horse with so few miles on the clock and he may well remember such an unpleasant experience next time. It is also notable that he has made a mistake late on in every hurdle race he has run in. The least severe of these was at Cheltenham but he did lose momentum and he came slowly away from the flight, only managing to beat the vastly inferior High Storm by a nose. Whether he makes these mistakes because his jumping suffers as the pace quickens, or whether everything comes so easily to him that he loses concentration, is difficult to decide but it will be a nagging doubt in my mind particularly as he will face a number of fluent hurdlers at the festival. Had Darlan jumped the last two at Newbury fluently and won the Betfair Hurdle he would no doubt be favourite for the Supreme and the 12/1 available now would look massive. Sadly for connections he didn’t and still, for me, Darlan is too much of an unknown quantity to get involved with. Yet, at the same time, it would come as no shock were he to win handsomely in March.  

The very next race on Newbury’s card was a 2m Novices’ Hurdle involving three well regarded sorts all with great expectations. Montbazon came out comfortably on top but the race had a rather unsatisfactory feel to it. They went a slow pace early and when the three market principals drew alongside each other at the second last flight, the horse going best, Colour Squadron, fell.

Montbazon

I was huge fan of Montbazon as a bumper horse last season and I fully expected win the bumper at Cheltenham on his first start back but he was in need of the race and failed to impress in the paddock. Alan King’s charge clearly benefitted from the experience and his first run over hurdles came at Newbury where he was beaten into second on ground that didn’t suit by, the aforementioned, Colour Squadron. His next run came at Plumpton where he was sent off at 1/10 and won as expected but his jumping throughout was sloppy. This was concerning and, wrongly, I was worried that these frailties might find him out against a far better class of opposition but he looked an extremely competent hurdler on Friday. He travelled well through the race and when sent on to reach the leaders before two out he responded, before moving decisively clear of Vulcanite from the last.

Montbazon was rightly shortened significantly in the market for the Supreme and he looks to hold a sound each way chance. Beforehand on Friday he was the clear paddock pick, he was fit and imposing and looked a different horse to when I had last seen him at Cheltenham. If he stands out like this in March then he is worthy of consideration at least, especially as he appears to have the requisite stamina to win a Supreme Novices, but I am not convinced he is quite as classy as a number of other runners. The way he pulled away at Newbury was pleasing but he doesn’t have the burst acceleration that a few at the head of the Supreme market seem to. He looks more of a strong galloper and may be better suited to further in the long term. Finishing 7l clear of the well regarded Vulcanite is strong form on paper but Montbazon hasn’t excited me this year like he did last and I feel Vulcanite probably didn’t run best race either.

Vulcanite

Vulcanite was a little keen at Newbury and making his own pace is unlikely to have suited him. He was tiring from the last and without the departure of Colour Squadron he would have finished third. With a lead and a fast pace at Cheltenham I am sure he will be seen in a better light. I couldn’t be sure that he would reverse the form with Montbazon but I doubt there would be 7l in it. What he did show at Newbury, which bodes well for Cheltenham, was his exceptional jumping. He never broke stride, so quick and nimble, I would be surprised if anything could match him in this department in the Supreme having seen this display. The marked improvement from his first start where he ploughed through the first two hurdles is astonishing. Also worth noting is that since I last wrote about Vulcanite’s Supreme prospects his form has taken a notable boost. It was clear that his run behind Tetlami was strong form but when he thrashed a field at Southwell it was widely reported that he beat very little. In fact, 7l down in second was Spiekeroog who won his next start defeating Bourne in the process. Bourne then came out at Ascot on Saturday and was impressive in winning a competitive handicap hurdle. If Vulcanite’s run at Newbury can be forgiven then he looks a solid outsider for Cheltenham.

Colour Squadron

The second last had an impact on all the hurdle races at Newbury. Colour Squadron’s fall there was a major disappointment as he looked to be tanking along in between Montbazon and Vulcanite. Richard Johnson reined him back in an attempt to stop him hitting the front too soon on account of his antics at Sandown but before he could let him go the Old Vic gelding slithered on landing ejecting his rider. Much like Darlan you cannot be sure if Colour Squadron would have won but you have a much better idea as he had defeated Montbazon on the course previously so he would surely have been thereabouts. Of course, that is to forget the quirks he seems to have developed and with his violent hanging in the Grade 1 Tolworth he is surely one to avoid in any race of note, particularly the Supreme Novices Hurdle.

Ascot

At Ascot on Saturday a horse leapt into the reckoning for the Supreme with an emphatic display. Following two impressive wins, in a minor novice hurdle at Plumpton and a three runner juvenile hurdle at Ascot, Balder Succes was thought of as a possible Fred Winter or Aintree juvenile hurdle horse. He was running on Saturday against his elders, in a better race than he had previously faced, with the aim of discovering if he could be worthy of a place in the Triumph hurdle. He was so impressive on Saturday in beating the useful Captain Sunshine that he is now under consideration for the Supreme Novices against older horses. He jumped with real enthusiasm on Saturday and he again displayed an easy way of going which suggests a fast pace should suit. He showed how much class he’s got by quickening clear from the second last and at his age he should keep improving. I would have him ahead of Montbazon in terms of his chance in the Supreme and the four year old allowance can only be a benefit.

I must temper my enthusiasm by saying that the race somewhat fell apart at Ascot. His main rival Hazy Tom, whose form had worked out so well earlier in the season, was far too keen and in the end ran a horrible race. Similarly the second, Captain Sunshine was outpaced at an alarmingly early stage before staying on. It was a race that didn’t take much winning but he could do no more than win in the manner he did. Very few novice hurdlers have created such a good impression this season and at this stage the Supreme Novices looks the right race but as a juvenile hurdler there is the always chance he could run in the Triumph. This may well be an easier race and he now looks right among the best of his age group. I just believe Alan King would rather run him in the Supreme as Grumeti looks to have a better chance in the Triumph than Montbazon does in the Supreme and he has already proved himself against older horses. As a consequence, the 20/1 widely available (25/1 in a place) looks generous.  

Fairyhouse

On Wednesday two horses at the head of the Supreme Novices market ran and won impressively without coming off the bridle. The first was Galileo’s Choice at Fairyhouse, the second was Simonsig at Kelso. Galileo’s Choice won as he was entitled to, never coming off the bridle in defeating Becauseicouldntsee by 4 ½ lengths. As novice hurdle form that is nothing special seeing as the second is more a 4 mile chaser than a 2 mile hurdler but this son of Galileo travelled and quickened like the smart horse he had already shown to be. He is a Group 3 winner on the flat, looks to have plenty of speed and he clearly stays well as he showed when chasing home Sous Les Cieux in the Grade 1 Royal Bond. He should really have won that race however and he lacks the scope for improvement that a number of others in the Supreme have, including Midnight Game who finished well behind him that day. There probably won’t be many in the festival curtain raiser with as much class as him but he still hasn’t done or shown enough for me over hurdles to consider him as a likely winner and with his trainer’s record at the festival he is one at a short price that I am willing to strike a line through.

Kelso

In the Morebattle Hurdle we saw Simonsig win hard held from another staying chaser Knockara Beau. Run over 2m 2f this race told us very little about Simonsig that we didn’t already know. As my antepost selection for the Supreme I had been hoping for Nicky Henderson to drop him back in trip to 2m to really test his speed. Instead he ran over a trip in between that of the Neptune and the Supreme. Nicky Henderson still insists he has not decided which race to go for with this imposing grey but Barry Geraghty has already voiced a preference for the longer race as it will give a bit more time at his hurdles. Simonsig made mistakes at the final two hurdles at Kelso but there was an excuse for those as the sun was very low and he probably had trouble seeing the flights. Aside from those I have seen no issues with his jumping and in fact I see it as an asset. Geraghty clearly has his own interests in that he already has a strong ride in the Supreme, Tetlami, where as in the Neptune he has nothing outside of Simonsig that could challenge those at the head of the market. I can therefore forgive him this oversight but from all the evidence I have seen he must go for the Supreme. The major point is that in the Neptune he has to take on Fingal Bay again who comprehensively beat him at Sandown. While Simonsig may not have been at his very best that day I still don’t see him reversing the form over the longer trip. Furthermore, in the Neptune he will face Boston Bob and Monksland, two other outstanding candidates where as the Supreme has a far more open feel to it, for which he is favourite (as short as 6/1). In the Neptune, Simonsig will be one of the best, in the Supreme he will be THE best. This is a point trainer Nicky Henderson has already alluded to and for that reason I would still be inclined to think he will run in the shorter race. Hopefully this is not just wishful thinking.....

Supreme Novices Update

In the last week we have seen three horses stake their claim for the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle; Vulcanite, Cinders And Ashes and Midnight Game.

Vulcanite is the first and, so far, only horse to go jumping in the Pearl Bloodstock colours. By the versatile superstar sire Dubawi, he was a classy performer on the level for Ralph Beckett, winning 5 times and finishing just 9 ½ lengths behind the hugely exciting Beaten Up on his final flat start. It was hoped by his Owner, Sheikh Fahad, that if he could transfer his flat ability to hurdles he could set his sights on Cheltenham.

For his first start in the care of Charlie Longsdon Vulcanite was set a stiff task at Kempton on Boxing Day. He faced the Nicky Henderson trained Tetlami who had won his bumper and debut over hurdles impressively. Since then the form of Tetlami’s first run over hurdles has been franked with the second and third winning good races next time out, showing just how tough a test this was for Vulcanite. He ran a race full of promise in finishing a good second with Tetlami all out to beat him by 3 ½ lengths. After the race Charlie Longsdon said it was just inexperience that cost him the race and that the next time he met Tetlami, Vulcanite would reverse the form. On Wednesday, Vulcanite had his second run over hurdles at Southwell. It was a weak race and his trainer admitted that he had to win impressively to be considered for the Supreme. Going off at 1/4 Charlie Longsdon’s charge did not disappoint. Travelling strongly at the head of affairs he quickened away from the field hard on the bridle to win by 7 lengths in the style that was expected.  

On both starts Vulcanite has raced keenly but he was less keen at Southwell, suggesting he is improving with experience. He is likely to have one more run before Cheltenham in which he will have to learn to settle better otherwise he is going to struggle come March. Although it can be argued that he has been keen because, so far, his races have been slowly run. Hence the pace of the Supreme should be in his favour. Another positive for Vulcanite’s Cheltenham aspirations has been his jumping. Following two blunders at his first two hurdles jumped in public at Kempton, Vulcanite has jumped well and enthusiastically. He clearly enjoys his new job and we haven’t seen the best of him yet. The 25/1 available for the Supreme Novices seems a fair price.

However, I am not desperate to take that price at this stage as I see his comfortable victory at Southwell as yet another boost to the extremely solid Tetlami form. I would be far more interested in the 20/1 about him. Connections suggest that Vulcanite should reverse the form with Tetlami next time but I’m not convinced. Even if he were to, it seems that Henderson has at least two with better chances than Tetlami, particularly Simonsig, therefore Vulcanite will have to take a giant leap forward on his next start for me to see him as a contender.  

Cinders And Ashes is a very likeable 5yo who travels strongly, jumps well and quickens like a high class horse. Donald McCain loves him and is confident he can win this year’s Supreme. He was a talented bumper horse, winning twice at smaller tracks before acquitting himself well twice at Cheltenham. On his first run at Cheltenham he was beaten a short head by the talented flat performer Keys. This was some of the best bumper form around and his connections went into the Champion Bumper full of confidence. The son of Beat Hollow travelled like the best horse in the race but weakened, eventually finishing fifth. With an extra year on his back his trainer asserts that he has grown and is a stronger animal.

This season, Cinders And Ashes has run four times over hurdles and should be unbeaten. His only defeat came on his first start at Ascot to Broadbackbob. Having made what looked a race ending error at the fifth flight he lost significant ground on the leaders but eventually picked up again, and to his credit was leading at the last. Unfortunately for his connections his efforts in recovering his position took their toll and he was just outstayed by the Nicky Henderson gelding. Broadbackbob is a smart individual and should have a great chance in the Neptune Investments Novices’ Hurdle, so, on the face of it this was a pleasing debut over hurdles for Donald McCain’s horse. Next time, at Aintree, he came up against his old adversary Keys. Whilst Keys was evidently not suited by the conditions, Cinders And Ashes reversed the form in no uncertain terms, proving just how much he had improved since last season and his liking for soft ground. This was a striking performance, he won by 9 lengths in the end, and is probably still his best over hurdles. His last two runs have been in small fields at Haydock on heavy going and both have been similar performances. On each occasion he has travelled smoothly through the race and picked up the leader late on, before showing his superior class and quickening away. The form of each run is hard to evaluate but his latest performance was more significant as he beat two well regarded horses from top stables and the runner up, Double Ross, has form that ties in with the best novice hurdler around, Fingal Bay. This was also the race Donald McCain ran Peddlers Cross in before his Cheltenham Festival victory.

The trainer’s plan now is to head straight to the Supreme and Cinders And Ashes looks a strong candidate. He has strong bumper form, he handles Cheltenham, jumps hurdles well and travels like the high class horse he appears to be. As a consequence, he is fancied by many and now the longest price available for him is 14/1. This, again, is not an unreasonable price and he has achieved far more than Darlan so far, who is shorter in the betting. It is very hard to knock him but his best form has come on soft or heavy ground. He may well improve for the quicker ground in the spring but it is worth pointing out. As is the fact that he made a shocking jumping error on debut and another mistake at the last on Saturday. In the Supreme he will not have the time to get back into the race like he did at Ascot and he will not be so superior to his rivals that a final flight blunder will not matter, as he was at Haydock. In short, Cinders And Ashes will be thereabouts coming to the last in the festival opener but I would be surprised if there wasn’t at least one horse in front of him come the line.

Midnight Game was bought by Willie Mullins at the Arqana Sale in Saint-Cloud for €185,000 having been runner up twice in listed company on the flat for Jean-Claude Rouget. This was the same sale that in 2009 he bought Zaidpour and it was hoped this son of Montjeu would be a similarly good novice hurdler.

Unlucky not to win first time over hurdles having been hampered at the last, Midnight Game has progressed from there. On his next start he was fourth behind stablemate Sous Les Cieux in the Grade 1 Royal Bond and he would have been closer had he not nearly fallen two from home. Next he went to Leopardstown on Boxing Day an 11/10 favourite and won, beating a subsequent winner, Joxer, by half a length in the process. He stepped up again on that run next time at Naas this weekend in beating the highly touted Dylan Ross comfortably by 2 ½ lengths. With this rate of improvement he has quickly made up into a smart novice hurdler and there is even more to come. What excites me about him is that Mullins believes he is certain to improve for the quicker ground he will face at Cheltenham. This on top of his already progressive profile bodes extremely well for his festival challenge.

As is often the case with Mullins there are a number of different horses he could run in the Supreme Novices and also the Neptune Investments over half a mile further. This makes antepost betting on his horses tricky but luckily for Midnight Game supporters he has stated that the Supreme is the aim. Whether he will be the Mullins first string is another question. The trainer has mentioned recently that the likely target for his, aforementioned, Grade 1 winning novice hurdler Sous Les Cieux is also the Supreme. I am a huge fan of this French bred and Mullins feels he has the requisite speed to challenge over 2m on quick ground but I see him as a better prospect over further. Were Mullins to agree and step him up in trip for the Neptune then I would have to look extremely closely at Midnight Game. If Mullins did make it clear, soon, that he was the best of his 2m novice hurdlers then the 20/1 currently available would look big and quite tempting.

Cheltenham Preview: Ryanair Chase Antepost

The trouble with antepost betting on the Cheltenham festival, at the moment, is that so many horses have a number of different options. This is particularly the case with the novice hurdlers and chasers. As a result, unless you have the word of the trainer or feel like it is worth taking the slightly bigger price when there is a risk of the horse going elsewhere, many of the races at this stage look decidedly unappealing as betting propositions. With the championship races it appears easier to ascertain the likely runners but then when one looks at the Champion Hurdle market there are doubts among a number of horses due to setbacks through the season or a desire to go up in trip and face the mighty Big Buck’s. Even the Gold Cup has problems; in that one of the most interesting runners (and my selection at this stage) is a novice, who theoretically has 3 or 4 options in March. Outside of Grands Crus there appears little value at this stage. The World Hurdle market does have value in it if you are willing to oppose Big Buck’s but again those with potential have various doubts about their participation. This leaves the Champion Case and the Ryanair. It is far easier to predict the fields in these races but in the Champion Chase there are very few contenders and again there appears to be little value outside of choosing a novice who is just as likely to go for the Arkle. Hence, the festival race it is best to concentrate on at this stage from an antepost perspective is the Ryanair Chase over 2 miles and 5 furlongs.

Outside of Captain Chris and Finian’s Rainbow, who will probably in run in the Gold Cup and Queen Mother Champion Chase respectively, the only doubts revolve around fitness. Riverside Theatre, Realt Dubh and, the two times Ryanair Chase winner, Albertas Run would be serious contenders for the race were they to run but due to injuries there are question marks over the participation of each horse. Of the more definite runners at this stage; Rubi Light, Medermit, Gauvain, Somersby and Great Endeavour all seem to have chances on what they have done this season. However, the two I am most keen on now are Noble Prince and Kauto Stone. 

Noble Prince won the Jewson novices chase over 2 miles and a half at Cheltenham on Ryanair Chase day last year. This was an impressive performance and he beat the highest rated novice of last season, Wishfull Thinking, by 4 lengths. It also showed that he handled the course well and the stiff finish seemed to suit him. Then he fell when looking like disposing of the, aforementioned Arkle third, Realt Dubh in the Powers Gold Cup (Grade 1) at Fairyhouse. This season, following a win in a non event at Naas, the Montjeu gelding has run second to Big Zeb twice at 2 miles and in chasing down the former Champion Chaser, who has looked as good as ever this season, Noble Prince has done his Ryanair claims no harm at all and has probably enhanced them. On both occasions he ran extremely well over a trip that is essentially too short for him to be seen at his best.

My concern over Noble Prince is that the form of the Jewson Novices’ Chase has not worked out this season. Wishfull Thinking (2^nd) and Loosen My Load (3^rd) have been hugely disappointing on the whole, and Radium (4^th) has been sent back to France. The form of all last season’s 2m4f+ novice chasers has looked suspect and I would be wary of backing anything from that category for the 2012 festival.

Paul Nolan has said today that the next race for Noble Prince will be in the Normans Grove Chase at Fairyhouse over 2m1f. He will not face the likes of Big Zeb and Sizing Europe so it should be a race for the taking. If he wins it like he should then his price will shorten slightly but at the moment he is 6/1, half the price of Kauto Stone who I believe at 12/1 looks the value call in the race.

During his time in France Kauto Stone amassed over £500,000 in prize money and he managed to win three chases, as a 4 year old, including the Grade 1 Prix Maurice Millois (won by Long Run in 2009). This performance made him officially the best 4yo chaser in France and he was subsequently bought by Robin Geffen who sent him to Paul Nicholls. As Kauto Star’s half brother he was always going to be an exciting prospect and with his facile success in the grade 2 Ladbrokes.com Chase at Down Royal he did nothing to dampen the enthusiasm for him. After the 2m4f race Nicholls said ‘the Ryanair is an obvious target in the spring’ and this is still the case. Last time out Kauto Stone ran in a soft ground Tingle Creek over 2miles. With his best trip being further than 2m it was thought the soft ground would help make the Sandown race more of a stamina test thereby giving him a good chance of defeating a field which lacked depth. Paul Nicholls successfully did the same thing with Kauto Star on two occasions but with Kauto Stone he was not quite so lucky. Kauto Stone ran extremely well in coming second to the current Champion Chaser Sizing Europe, he was upsides for a long way and it was just between two out and the last that the extra pace and turn of foot that Henry De Bromhead’s horse told. At Down Royal on his first start he made a couple of jumping errors and at Sandown he did much the same with a particularly bad one at the notoriously difficult third and final railway fence. In spite of this, he jumped well in the main and it is probably true that travelling at grade 1 pace over 2m, against an exceptional jumper in Sizing Europe, probably tested his fencing to the limit.

Whilst he was no match for the winner he ran very much as if a step up in trip would benefit and in fairness he did beat Cornas, who had his ideal conditions (a fast run 2m on softish ground), by 5 lengths. In the Haldon Gold Cup, over 2 furlongs further, Medermit only beat Cornas by 1¾ lengths. This then was a very useful performance over 2m and in a race on slow ground without Big Zeb or Sizing Europe he would probably be hard to beat. His next run is likely to be in the Betfair Ascot Chase over the same distance as the Ryanair, where he could face Captain Chris. I’m sure, much like his half-brother, he will improve for the extra distance and he may well win, especially if he sharpens up his jumping. Were this to happen his price would be slashed for the Ryanair and he could challenge for favouritism.

The concerns for those thinking of backing Kauto Stone for the Ryanair Chase are twofold. With him running so well behind the reigning champion chaser over 2m and with the sudden dearth of 2m chasing talent at Ditcheat, now Master Minded and Tataniano are out, Nicholls may decide to go for the shorter championship race. Al Ferof is being considered for the Queen Mother Champion Chase as well but even if he was to run in the Arkle instead, I still find it unlikely that they would run Kauto Stone against Sizing Europe again, as on the Sandown form has no hope of beating him. The second concern would be Kauto Stone’s apparent preference for softer ground than he will almost certainly encounter at Cheltenham. He won his grade 1 in France over 2m6f on heavy going and his impressive win at Down Royal was also in testing conditions but he is not a big, heavy horse so 2m 5f on decent ground should be fine and Kauto Star actually prefers a sounder surface. In summation, the Ryanair Chase looks the perfect race for him and with no standout in what looks an open renewal, Kauto Stone is the selection.

Supreme Novices Ante-post selection:

With Christmas on us and the firework filled festive period of racing about to begin, I thought it would be a good time to look back at a, mostly, stellar first half of the jumps season. But with this being a blog entitled 'A Supreme Novice', and with the time constraints of making minced pies and iced biscuits, I thought it would be appropriate to just review the novice hurdlers who are likely to be heading for the festival curtain raiser in March, at least for the time being. I will also be giving my views on the antepost potential of some of the main candidates as well as my current selection.

The novice hurdlers this season have been an exciting bunch. Over the minimum trip the most impressive novice has arguably been Prospect Wells. He won well on debut at Chepstow, even after being badly hampered, and was possibly an unlucky second at Cheltenham behind the previous season’s Aintree bumper winner Steps To Freedom. Then he marked himself down as a proper Supreme Novices candidate with his 4L defeat of All The Aces, a highly regarded Henderson novice. The victory was worth more than the bare form as he idled on the run-in. He was then sent off favourite for last week’s Ladbroke hurdle. It was an interesting route to take with a novice but the race was so valuable that it was too good an opportunity to miss. In the end, he ran a very respectable race in 4th. It was not run to suit as he needed a faster gallop and the ground was probably more testing than ideal. This then was by no means a knock to his Supreme Novices prospects; in fact, it may have been a boost seeing as he handled a large competitive field well and he is bound to improve for the faster pace that he will face in the Cheltenham Festival opener. However, this latest performance seems to put a ceiling on his ability, in that he is not the superstar he looked at Newbury but merely a very high class novice. He may well, therefore, be capable of winning at Cheltenham but there are others who are unexposed, potential superstars, and we haven’t got a clear idea of how good they could be.

The first of these has already been mentioned, Steps To Freedom. He is a horse with a good deal of speed and there is no question of him stepping up in trip, he is a 2m hurdler. As the best bumper horse from last season he was always going to be a Good prospect for hurdles. After winning a graded race in Ireland he came over to Cheltenham and just defeated the aforementioned Prospect Wells. He may have been fortunate but he showed a lot of class in the way he travelled and quickened. Jessie Harrington's charge also displayed battling qualities which had been thought lacking. Steps To Freedom is likely to keep improving over hurdles but due to a successful flat season over the summer he will now have a break and we will be able to gauge his improvement in March.

Others who have made an impression and are likely to be thought of as  contenders for the 2m novice crown include; Colour Squadron (may want softer ground than likely to get at Cheltenham), Montbazon (will keep on improving with time, contender), Tetlami (talented, still unexposed, runs Boxing Day) Hazy Tom (ground too soft and pulled too hard last time, capable of very smart form) Sous Les Cieux (likely to want further, still unexposed though) and Cinders And Ashes (unlikely to be quite good enough). There is also the untapped potential of the antepost favourite for the Supreme, Waaheb and another well regarded bumper horse, Samain. Neither has run over hurdles yet but both could be exciting.

The horse I am most keen on from an antepost perspective is Simonsig. He has yet to run over the minimum trip over hurdles but he has shown more than enough speed in his two runs over 2 miles 4f. On the basis of these efforts it appears that he travels as well as any horse in training. He won first time out at Ascot with supreme ease & didn't appear to have a race. Travelling smoothly and jumping fluently throughout, Simonsig resembled so many of his trainers top class novice hurdlers from recent seasons. Spirit Son was probably the best novice hurdler from last season and he characterised his performances with impeccable jumping, a trait which Simonsig seems to possess as well. It was not a great novice hurdle at Ascot but he won it in the style you would expect from such an impressive bumper winner. Next he went to Sandown over the same trip in the hottest novice hurdle of the season so far. Here he finished second to the horse by which all middle distance novice hurdling form will likely be measured, Fingal Bay. Through the race he travelled so well it was almost menacing. He again jumped fluently and approaching 2 out he and the winner were clear. Barry Geraghty's mount was travelling by far the best, I was wondering at this point how far he was going to win by, yet all the confidence of the grey gelding’s jockey evaporated after clearing 2 out as the small advantage Fingal Bay held wasn't closing. Geraghty's poise turned to panic and Fingal Bay, who had been off the bridle for a while, kept finding more. Simonsig was possibly out-battled but, definitely, outstayed. The connections felt Simonsig would benefit from more experience, which is certainly the case. It has also been suggested that he would benefit from a drop in trip. Of course Henderson must go down the shorter route in order for Simonsig to be a Supreme Novices player. I'm convinced he will do this for 3 reasons: 1) Henderson is keen to avoid Fingal Bay again. 2) Henderson has the likes of Broadbackbob, Hadrian's Approach and Molotof who are all likely to go down the Neptune Investments Novices’ hurdle route. 3) Simonsig's style of running, with his strong travelling, slick jumping and potent turn of foot, all suggests he it's likely to be at his best in a strongly run 2 miles. As a result, when this plan is confirmed I can see him being significantly shorter than the 14/1 available now.

Inevitably there will be problems hitting some of the main protagonists and some will boost their claims while the claims of others will be diminished. With so many weeks, and so many trial races yet to be run, between now and March one can never be confident, but at this stage I am comfortable in advising Simonsig as the most likely winner of the William Hill Supreme Novices' Hurdle 2012.