Supreme Novices Update: Douvan

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Horses To Follow

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Supreme Novices Update: Irving (Dovecote Hurdle)

Stats and trends are an indication of what has happened, not necessarily what will happen. I try not to let them dominate my thinking when it comes to Cheltenham but naturally, some will seep into the consciousness and have an unintended, though not unhelpful, influence on one’s opinions. Writing off a horse’s chances because it has run in a race which has failed to produce the winner of a certain Festival contest, for example, is too arbitrary yet I generally like a Supreme Novices’ Hurdle candidate to fit a certain profile. Knowing what it takes to win the race, the test it can provide and therefore what sort of horse is likely to flourish under those conditions is invaluable to success.

Ideally a Supreme candidate would have looked impressive in bumpers and or shown strong form in that sphere. Horses to have had a hurdling background in France also make significant appeal. That may appear vague and does not narrow down the field particularly but the key point is I would almost invariably be negative towards those coming off the flat. Not every Supreme is the same however, not every field is as strong, and while flat recruits usually struggle to win me over some do and in Saturday’s Dovecote Hurdle, Irving did.

It was a far from stellar line-up and First Mohican, seen as the leading danger to Irving largely based on his flat form, was weak in the market beforehand. During the race he made mistakes at his obstacles and was beaten relatively early, looking awkward and reluctant with his ungainly head carriage once again in evidence, as it was on hurdling debut at Doncaster. The rest of the field were unlikely to pose a serious threat to Paul Nicholls’ charge based on what had gone before this season, but Irving still despatched his rivals with a contemptuous ease that has quite rightly set him atop the betting for the Festival’s opening contest.

Ridden more prominently than at Ascot in December, Nick Schofield (aboard Irving for the fourth time) was content to track the leader, Amore Alto and the free-going Germany Calling. With a smooth passage he travelled sweetly throughout, seemingly giving his rider a simple job as he jumped soundly in the main and moved from in contention to in control without the need for coercion. As this six-year-old has gained his experience it is noticeable how quickly he gets away from his hurdles (this is especially evident on Channel 4’s coverage, with the fourth last flight providing the best example, Racing UK only has a head-on view here). This element of his armoury could set him apart as even the mistakes he has made have yet to halt his momentum; he is nimble and clever while he can pull out prodigious jump if he meets a hurdle wrong as he did over the last at Kempton. That was the only semblance of a scare, he did kick the top out of the second last having tanked into it but Schofield was reluctant to let him fly it in case he hit the front too soon. Whereas there would be concerns about some in the Supreme jumping at high speed Irving isn’t one of them.  

A strong pace on faster ground at Cheltenham could really suit Irving, a picture of him travelling in the slipstream of the leader on the run to the last (perhaps Vautour) is easy to imagine, and his turn of foot combined with the acceleration away from the final flight may then prove the difference.

As hinted at above the form of Saturday’s Dovecote hurdle can be questioned given the lack of strength in depth but this comprehensive thrashing of Amore Alato on ground that, according to connections, inconvenienced Irving should not be underestimated. Nick Williams’ gelding is by no means a Supreme contender, he is not, nor is he ever likely to be a multiple Grade 1 winner à la The Tullow Tank who was so confidently seen off by Vautour. He is a solid, consistent novice hurdler with a high level of ability. Both his wins this season, at Wincanton and particularly Kempton, have worked out well. The ultra-impressive Doncaster winner, Vaniteux was among the vanquished on Boxing Day. His run prior to Saturday was in a heavy ground handicap at Cheltenham where he was far from disgraced, finishing third behind the obscenely well handicapped Lac Fontana and Totalize who is very useful in the conditions. Crucially, he was taken on for the lead at Cheltenham, unlike at Wincanton or Kempton, including on Saturday where the son of Winged Love was allowed to dictate the pace with no competition up front, he was even handed five lengths at the start. Coupled with a well-executed ride, Amore Alato was a difficult rival to master, as the rest of the seven strong field showed, yet Irving swept by him unflustered.

It is also worth mentioning the boost given to his Kennell Gate Novices’ Hurdle form at Ascot by the third that day, Splash Of Ginge in the Betfair Hurdle. Success there came off a lowly mark and he was ridden (and ridden smartly) by a seven pound claimer but even then it is hard to believe he ran to the same level behind Irving. He jumped poorly and out to his left during the first half of the Ascot Grade 2 therefore this franking is not quite as spectacular as it may appear, nevertheless it provides some much needed support to a shaky looking piece of form following the comprehensive blowout of the likely second (before coming to grief) in the rearranged Tolworth. Prince Siegfried’s fall may have left its mark, however, and as a consequence that run is easy to ignore, I certainly wouldn’t use him as a stick to beat Irving with.

Many will have been more excited by Irving previously than I was and consequently availed themselves of some attractive antepost prices. The prospect of taking the 3/1 currently available is therefore soured somewhat but I am now as excited as anybody, outside of the connections, by this rapid bay gelding and would rather be with him than Vautour at the same price.

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The notion that Un Ace could be horse for the Cheltenham Festival was put forward right at the start of the season by his trainer Kim Bailey. He was for sale at the time and that is essentially how he was advertised. In an attempt to avoid ground soft or worse Un Ace was not sighted until last week at Doncaster, thus making the prospect of a visit to Prestbury Park rather remote. Fortunately for those who kept the faith with this son of Voix Du Nord their patience was rewarded with an emphatic display at the Town Moor course. Without the peck on landing at the third last, which briefly appeared to end his chances, he may not even have come off the bridle in his defeat of Tom George’s well-regarded prospect, Stellar Notion.

According to connections he had earned his place at National Hunt racing’s top table and who can blame them. The Supreme has been muted as the most likely option and the experience gained there should bring him on considerably. To compete in such a race on just your second start is an extremely tall order and quotes of around 66/1 say it all. He is not without considerable potential though and, hopefully, with the travails of the Festival safely under his belt he may be one to consider seriously during the concluding weeks of the season.

Supreme Novices Update: Wilde Blue Yonder

Wilde Blue Yonder began his career in unexpectedly good style when narrowly failing to topple the hotly fancied Purple Bay (who would later finish fifth in the Champion Bumper) at Doncaster. A tilt at the Aintree Bumper was far from unreasonable, yet ultimately unsuccessful. He was keen early and moved through the race comfortably before being outpaced when the leading protagonists set sail for home. He stuck on well for a period until his enthusiastic nature caught up with him, finishing eleventh of nineteen. At this early stage in his career it was an eminently forgivable run.

Such a stern test did him no harm as he returned this season to outclass his opposition in a Uttoxeter bumper in early November. He then made a winning start over hurdles at Newbury in a race that, to a degree, has worked out well. Seedling stayed on into second and he has underperformed since in desperate conditions but Tiqris, whom Wilde Blue Yonder saw off nicely after a protracted battle, has won impressively since and finished second in a Listed race. Seven lengths behind the winner in fourth was the heavily punted favourite, Sign Of A Victory who bolted up in a jumpers bumper at Kempton on his next start while back in fifth, Fascino Rustico was a likely winner at Wincanton on Saturday until coming to grief, having narrowly missed out in a traditionally strong novice hurdle at Kempton on Boxing Day.

Paul Nicholls’ charge was far too keen behind Wild Blue Yonder hence his superiority over him was exaggerated and despite dossing in front he failed to beat Tiqris with the same level of ease as Josses Hill, who went onto to shape best of all when narrowly outstayed in the Tolworth. Josses Hill is a raw chaser in the making and despite both meeting Tiqris on hurdling debut it was the Winged Love gelding who was most inconvenienced by the lack of experience. Wilde Blue Yonder was generally quicker over his hurdles despite the prescient error at the final obstacle, where he almost failed to take off entirely. Josses Hill showed in the Tolworth how quickly novices can improve and Wilde Blue Yonder will need develop rapidly if he is to best Nicky Henderson's imposing prospect at Cheltenham.

A return to Newbury a month later saw him face a field of five including another Seven Barrows inmate, Stand To Reason. Largely overrated on the back of a comfortable success in lowly company at Wincanton, Stand To Reason (Wilde Blue Yonder’s only meaningful rival) was ridden with restraint by Tony McCoy, as he attempted to settle alongside. The gallop was steady until Wilde Blue Yonder quickened off the final bend applying pressure to the former flat performer. That seemed to tell as he met the third last all wrong with McCoy fortunate to maintain his partnership. Nicky Henderson’s six-year-old looked beaten.

Robert Thornton’s mount generally hurdled with fluency through the first three-quarters of the race, barring one lazy error at the fourth, yet once more as the race moved towards its climax and each jump gained greater significance his technique unravelled. At the second last this cavalier son of Oscar threw himself at the flight, giving little thought to self-preservation, and an opportunity was suddenly presented to his pursuer as Robert Thornton manfully held on.

McCoy was motionless atop Stand To Reason as they headed away from the penultimate flight but, in spite of his blunder, Wild Blue Yonder was far from beaten and regained the lead under strong pressure from his rider. Having seemingly travelled well up the straight, Stand To Reason was urged to match his gutsy rival but despite the Champion Jockey not throwing everything at his mount there appeared to be little left to give as he failed to assert at the last.

I felt Alan King’s gelding was about to go clear, his pursuer unable to cope with the testing conditions and a superior novice. That is debatable, though Wilde Blue Yonder’s clumsiness is not. Having guessed at the previous hurdle he just managed to pick his legs up high enough to avoid catastrophe, albeit narrowly. At the last he was not so lucky as he found himself in too close after a final unnecessary stride, a mistake not dissimilar to that made a month earlier from which he survived. It was a heavy, potentially confidence knocking fall.

Without the mental lapses Wilde Blue Yonder probably would have come out on top in December, though only after a hard fought tussle with his well-regarded opponent and a stretch of the imagination was needed to place him into the Supreme reckoning, even for place purposes. Considering the problems in the King camp, however, that run could be looked upon more favourably than the performance suggests. It was still hard not to be concerned by the calamitous nature of his displays though and, with his yard now through the worst of its problems, the threat of a late tumble had to be in the back of one’s mind on Saturday even if Wilde Blue Yonder had a form edge at Ascot.

Another small field awaited at the east Berkshire venue, this time he was faced with three meaningful rivals, most notably the well backed favourite and eventual winner, Mountain King. Charlie Longsdon’s Wadswick Court made the running and he set a slow pace early on, forcing much of the field to pull. Wilde Blue Yonder actually settled relatively well in rear and with minimal pressure on his jumping, he was fluent.

The race begun in earnest as Mountain King faltered at the fourth from home, in the process losing considerable ground. In order to recover, Richard Johnson woke him up, moving from last to first in striking fashion on the run to the home turn. This injection of pace caught Wilde Blue Yonder marginally flat footed as he had to be shaken up to maintain position and then join those quickening clear. The response was swift and telling, eye-catchingly making his way up the inside into the lead at the second last. Under pressure, but by no means all out, he then drew three lengths clear as earlier exertions appeared to tell for the rest apart from the pace-setter who plugged on admirably. The race looked in safe keeping, only the last flight was between Wilde Blue Yonder and an impressive victory, finally a performance worthy of a Supreme place.

Predictably, the last proved too big an obstacle for this exasperating five-year-old as once again he guessed at the flight, sprawled on landing and gave Robert Thornton another moment to forget. This mistake was reminiscent of that made at Newbury’s penultimate hurdle in December, the horse took off more in hope than expectation. He needs to have his mind made up for him, with the race at your mercy Wilde Blue Yonder is not one who can be left to sort himself out and ‘pop’ an obstacle. Given past indiscretions the jockey must shoulder some blame. By now there should have been some inkling that such an event was possible, sitting still once more was insufficient. With the emergence of First Mohican, Wayne Hutchinson may be in the saddle at Cheltenham, as Robert Thornton switches to the classy flat performer, and that can only be a plus.

Even with the services of Hutchinson, and hopefully a new plan of action, it is difficult to justify backing Wilde Blue Yonder for the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle. The risk is too great, if he is unable to cope with the pressure of small field contests several notches below the level of the Supreme how can he be trusted to keep his race intact at the last in March. Eventually this weakness is bound to be remedied and was it to vanish at Cheltenham he could prove dangerous to those solid propositions ahead of him in the market though a leap of faith is still needed.

Saturday was going to be a clear career best for Wilde Blue Yonder but I am not convinced the form will turn out to be strong and a four or five length defeat of Wadswick Court would still leave significant room for improvement if he is to become a Festival player.  

Supreme Novices Update: Zamdy Man

Zamdy Man was always a horse his connections had high hopes for. Venetia Williams’ substantial gelding was thrown straight into Grade 1 company to make his hurdling debut at Chepstow, in the Finale Hurdle, following a short spell on the flat. He was not disgraced, trailing home in fifth, though he failed to excite thereafter as a juvenile. Two encouraging second place finishes led to attempts at both the Cheltenham and Aintree Festivals where he was largely an irrelevance.

At the start of this season Zamdy Man put that experience to good use, making all in emphatic fashion at Ascot, collecting the same prize won by My Tent Or Yours when he defeated Taquin Du Seuil during the previous campaign. This renewal unsurprisingly lacked the quality of its predecessor and nothing those in behind have done since suggests it was anything other than a moderate novice hurdle but the winner was a long way clear of the second, in a different league altogether. A step up in class followed and on his first trip of the season to Haydock he took in a Listed novice event. Further success there inevitably pointed to loftier ambitions and Saturday saw him return to the Lancashire venue for the Skybet Supreme Trial Novices’ Hurdle.

This weekend Zamdy Man set a reasonable pace in front, far from a dawdle, yet unlike his other runs this season he was hassled for much of the way by the impossibly keen Meadowcroft Boy. Chief market rival and race favourite Un Temps Pour Tout made up ground to join Zamdy Man and his free-going partner at the fourth hurdle, Tom Scudamore on the favourite was possibly wary of how difficult it had been for others to pick up and pass Zamdy Man this season and or concerned about his mounts’ suitability for sharp tests over two miles. The heavy ground would have helped in that regard and he threw down a stern challenge to the winner but that perceived lack of speed, which had been noted from his Gallic days, ultimately cost him here. He certainly has a bright future and there is every reason to expect improvement upon his first start in this country, especially over a longer trip.

The winner of a “Supreme Trial” naturally deserves to come into the reckoning for the main event and there is plenty to enthuse about regarding Zamdy Man. He has matched or exceeded expectations each time he has raced this season, even as those expectations have risen. He is only five and there is plenty more time to progress particularly when one considers his size, Aidan Coleman suggested in Saturday’s aftermath that it had been this holding him back during his juvenile campaign as he was too weak. Jumping played a large part in Zamdy Man’s most recent triumph, appearing fluent throughout and when under most pressure from the runner-up he put in his most effective leaps. He has a willing and determined attitude, certainly not lacking guts, and will surely stay further given his admirable ability to keep finding off the bridle when in front. This does not mean he is ripe for an increase in distance though and it is absolutely an asset when it comes to the demanding nature of the Supreme.

Factoring all this in and his apparently generous price of 33/1, it may seem churlish to essentially dismiss Zamdy Man as a Supreme Novices contender but unless this year’s renewal is even worse than feared I struggle to see him getting involved. He relishes testing underfoot conditions, however even if Cheltenham was to break the habit of a lifetime and come up heavy I would still prefer a number of others, principally those on the brink of heading to the Neptune.

The distance back to the third at Haydock, Meadowcroft Boy, might give the illusion of a very strong race but he could never be a serious factor after his hard pulling antics, while Stand To Reason, who was further back in fourth, failed to handle the going and he has been widely overrated on the back of positive noises coming out of Seven Barrows. His debut success over hurdles was a weak event whilst he was gifted the race at Newbury as his rival appeared to have him covered before exiting at the final flight.

Zamdy Man likes to dominate his opposition and he is going to find that a near impossible task at Cheltenham, particularly at the pace he will be forced to travel. This son of Authorized has yet to prove he has the class to see off a field of that nature and an indication of his limitations could be his second win of the season where he was perhaps fortunate to beat Nicky Henderson’s Oscar Hoof. Zamdy Man stole six lengths at the start that day and was afforded a soft lead. In that scenario a more convincing display from Venetia Williams’ charge could be expected yet he was all out to beat his inexperienced foe by less than two lengths. That inexperience, it was his hurdling debut and he lacked Zamdy Man’s flat background, cost Oscar Hoof dearly in the latter stages and it was not necessarily his preferred trip either given the appreciation he showed for a more demanding stamina test next time out.  Oscar Hoof is well regarded and in time it may, on the face of it, look impressive form, but he is also seen by his trainer as a chaser. 

That was all the way back in November and Zamdy Man has evidently developed in the interim but he is highly unlikely, in my opinion, to have developed enough to pose a potent threat in March. 

Supreme Novices Update: Irving and Volnay De Thaix

Before the familiar festive feast of fixtures it is worth touching on the Grade 2 Kennel Gate Novices hurdle run at Ascot last Friday, where the winner produced an even clearer indication that he will be a leading player in the 2014 Supreme. There were reasons to be dissatisfied with the race as a whole but Irving was a comprehensive winner and appears to have a future bright enough to match his burgeoning reputation.

IRVING 

Since his electric display at Taunton, trainer Paul Nicholls and rider Nick Schofield have barely contained their excitement about this son of Singspiel. He is demonstrably an exuberant work-horse and fortunately he translates that to the track. I am generally wary of former flat performers making the grade in a Supreme and the style of his victory at Ascot on his previous start combined with his history on the level suggested to me that this was a horse all about speed. He had so far, on admittedly limited evidence, produced bursts of speed in sprint finishes that his inferior rivals understandably could not match. Already, Aintree stood out as a long term goal for Irving, the flat track ideally suited to the flat recruit. The stamina sapping two mile test of Cheltenham, where thorough stayers have been able come to the fore, didn’t fit what I saw as being Irving’s ideal but after his most recent display in demanding conditions off a far from farcical pace it would be remiss of anyone to use a lack of stamina as an excuse to oppose him.

Among Irving’s opposition on Friday was Splash Of Ginge, for Nigel Twiston-Davies, who had set a strong pace when emphatically seeing off a field of 7 at Aintree last time out and he attempted to make all once again. His presence meant the race was relatively truly run for a small field novices’ hurdle and it allowed Nick Schofield to settle his potentially keen five-year-old in rear. Despite flattening the second flight, which in fairness cost him no momentum, he was fluid over his obstacles and he shapes like a natural jumper, a point exemplified by the last where his greater aptitude for the task saw him pick his legs up higher and faster than Prince Siegfried who fell when upsides, having taken off from the same point. Prince Siegfried showed significant improvement from his narrow defeat of My Wigwam Or Yours to be in with a shout before this calamity. He was coming off second best and it is difficult to be sure how much he would have found after the last, however, assuming such a heavy fall has not left a mark this was a hugely encouraging effort from another smart flat recruit to the superlative Bloomfields operation.

Having travelled comfortably throughout, Nick Schofield was only pressed into action aboard Irving after jumping the penultimate flight as the aforementioned Prince Siegfried closed the inviting gap Irving was trying to move into. This posed no real problem as Schofield switched his mount around Denis O’Regan’s and with a shake of the reins Irving was immediately alongside. As the pair quickened clear of the eventual second and third Irving seemed to be in charge of the contest and pulled further clear as he was left in front at the final obstacle. His notable acceleration had been seen over hurdles before and again it settled matters in style on Friday yet on this occasion, in a race that was more than a sprint, he saw the race out strongly beating two rivals who weren’t stopping. The impression left by Paul Nicholls’ charge must be mitigated the fall of Prince Siegfried as he surely would have finished within the final six lengths margin of victory while the same could be said for Volnay De Thaix who was staying on nicely before being hampered. Of course Irving was hardly all out himself and without being pressed after the last he could not be tested to his limit.

As an individual, Irving is hard to find fault with. He has matured with each start and his nickname ‘Concorde’ speaks for itself. Nonetheless, he is not obliterating his fields and despite Volnay De Thaix having the potential beforehand, he has yet to face another high class rival or one who could be considered a Supreme contender. He has done more than enough though and he is bound to face such a foe(s) if he heads to the Tolworth next. We will learn even more about him there, or wherever he goes, the listed race at Exeter in early February may be another viable option (Puffin Billy attempted the double before taking his chance in the Supreme) and in an open year the 14/1 still available for the Festival curtain raiser is on the generous side.

Prince Siegfried is probably behind the likes of Mijhaar and Dubai Prince (entered in the Grade 1 Future Champions Novice Hurdle at Leopardstown on Friday) in the Bloomfields novice hurdling pecking order and the same would be said about Volnay De Thaix who sits behind the likes of West Wizard and Josses Hill, another classy winner this week. Like Josses Hill, Volnay De Thaix is very much a raw chaser on looks and was probably doing well to produce such a promising performance against the sharp, flat types he faced on Friday. There will have been a tinge of disappointment given he was backed into odds-on favouritism, the second Judy Wilson owned novice hurdler defeated last week following Tistory on Wednesday, but in his two previous efforts over hurdles, while totally dominant, he faced a set of opponents severely lacking in ability. This was evidently not the case at Ascot and as the pace picked up in the straight he found it tough going under Barry Geraghty, coming off the bridle earlier than his rivals, patently lacking the speed of Irving and Prince Siegfried. His jumping did, however, stand up under pressure which bodes well for the future. He would have finished considerably more than a short head in front of Splash Of Ginge (to whom he was giving three pounds) were it not for being hampered and the Secret Singer gelding ran very much as if further would suit him in this better company. That does not make him a Neptune contender but he should still hold his own over intermediate trips, particularly if they try to exploit his handicap mark, before being sent over fences, perhaps next season, when he will have hopefully grown up (described as a “big baby” by connections after his first two runs in this country) and in that sphere Volnay De Thaix will prove an even more exciting prospect. 

VOLNAY DE THAIX

Supreme Novices Update: Ballyalton & Garde La Victoire

There were calls, from a select few, last season for The New One to be given a chance in the Supreme. Stamina was evidently not an issue for the Neptune but those with foresight could see The New One’s burst of enviable acceleration being used effectively over two miles. The Supreme is often a race won by a strong stayer and therefore a late switch of target would not have been completely illogical. There were minor concerns about his hurdling technique over the sharper trip but as this son of Kings Theatre showed at Kempton in October and Cheltenham on Saturday, two miles is ideal and had he taken the shorter option last March, the Festival’s opening battle would have been even more thrilling. This time around Ballyalton is a not dissimilar case. He is a proven stayer with abundant class and the necessary speed for two miles. Unlike The New One, whose only test near two miles as a novice was at Newton Abbot over eighteen furlongs, Ballyalton has already tested his credentials over a trip around two miles against a high level of opposition.

This came on Friday at Prestbury Park in what was a much anticipated renewal of the contest previously thrown away by Al Ferof when coming down two out in his Supreme Novice season. In taking on the unbeaten (over hurdles) pair, Garde Le Victoire and Doctor Harper, Ballyalton appeared to have a stiff task, particularly dropping back from the two-miles-six furlongs he faced at Newcastle. Despite the field of nine, this looked to be between the three horses mentioned with the unexposed Cocktails At Dawn on the fringes. In the event the race became a duel as Doctor Harper checked out tamely after racing with the choke out for most of the contest. David Pipe’s five-year-old didn’t appreciate the lack of pace as he pulled his way to the front and his keenness hindered his previously admirable jumping as he dived at the second, flattened the third last and was generally unconvincing. Grade 1 success at the Festival was always a far-fetched notion and this display did little to prove otherwise, yet I would happily forgive this run and would not be quick to write him off in the better novice hurdles away from the spring festivals or even in handicaps.

Prior to Friday’s heat I had, of the three, only entertained Garde La Victoire as a potential candidate for the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle. Convincing victories over Regal Encore and Gone Too Far marked him out as a conceivable successor to Menorah (same connections). Defeat on Friday did little to detract from that notion and he still deserves to be thought of as a leading player. In fact, I fail to see any reason why his reputation should not be enhanced given this was the first loss of his life, to a very talented animal, in race that is unlikely to have suited him. Pulling hard had been a characteristic of his runs so far over hurdles and the absence of pace in Friday’s race showed that off again early on. However, with racing this four-year-old is maturing and such tendencies were less pronounced at Cheltenham as he settled relatively well once the field headed away from the stands. Richard Johnson, on board, always looked confident in behind the leaders and it was only when the pace of the race picked up in the short run downhill to the second last that he was required to do anything other than hold his position.

 

As Garde La Victoire drifted into the lead he seemed to have the favoured outside berth in the run to the final flight where he took off upsides Ballyalton. Sadly, for the Hobbs team, his rival was just marginally quicker away from the flight and Richard Johnson was unable to get his mount back on terms up the hill, only closing in once shifted to the rail in the last 50 yards, a manoeuvre that could have been played earlier.

Ballyalton is two years Garde La Victoire’s senior, hence with natural development and further experience it is not difficult to envisage a reversal of the form in future but considering their apparent targets and long term plans any such rematch may have to wait until they are chasing. With the emphasis firmly placed on speed, one may have expected the Kapgarde gelding excel and prove too much for stouter opponent. His failure to maintain his unbeaten record could worry his supporters as could his jumping which, whilst not slow and certainly not enough to make one look elsewhere for the Festival, is not his strength and a lack of exuberance over his obstacles might hold Garde La Victoire back at the highest level. I would not be so concerned as he has ample time for improvement, although in fairness his jumping has hardly held him back up to now, and he is unlikely to face many more rivals of the same calibre as Ballyalton, even in the Supreme.

Ian Williams’ charge arrived at Cheltenham off the back of a rather overlooked performance at Newcastle. The race was not under-analysed but, and I was as guilty as anyone, he was not afforded the credit he deserved for beating one of the brightest prospects in training. The spotlight was focused on Oscar Rock, the lack of a decisive move made by his rider and the irrefutable nous of the eighteen times Champion Jockey on board Ballyalton. Why Oscar Rock lost was more important than why Ballyalton won. Following Friday’s effort, that can now be looked upon as just a high class effort from an extremely high class horse and defeat for Oscar Rock has become far easier to accept.

The natural assumption that Ballyalton would lack the speed of Garde La Victoire and even Doctor Harper stemmed from his last run coming over two-miles-and-six furlongs. He was still well fancied for the race at Cheltenham given the expected pace and the stiff nature of the track but when any sort of gallop failed to materialise it looked as if the race would go against him. Such an assumption, however, ignored the slowly run nature of the race at Newcastle as the extended trip became something of a speed test and a smart use of Ballyalton’s turn of foot before the last allowed him to finish on top. This intelligent use of the imposing gelding’s attributes was again present on Friday as he saw off another highly thought of adversary in a sprint up the famous hill.

In spite of Ballyalton’s greater experience he too found the opening dawdle against him and he was just lit up after jumping the second which could have been detrimental but fortunately the presence of his stablemate allowed him to settle quickly as he dropped in behind. As it had been in his three previous goes over hurdles, his jumping was fluent and economical apart from at the fifth where a combination of his blundering, often wayward, stablemate Ghost Of A Smile and the resulting swinging hurdle saw him guess at the flight, briefly halting his momentum. It was an easily forgivable mistake that would have been costly in a truly run affair, but on this occasion he avoided any significant loss of ground and the error had little bearing on the race. It did cause Ballyalton to give the next hurdle plenty of daylight which just slowed him down a little but McCoy quickly picked the horse up again. As the main protagonists came to the fore McCoy allowed his mount a clear sight at the second last at which a quick, straight leap saw him take a share of the four way lead until he and Garde La Victoire quickened clear off the final bend. Ballyalton was held together to maintain parity with his Hobbs trained rival before McCoy threw everything at him from the last after another fast and fluent jump. He managed to put a length between himself and his pursuer until the resilient four-year-old rallied along the rail. The runner-up got to within a neck at the line but McCoy seemed happy he had the race won.

Having failed to win his first and only start over hurdles last season Ballyalton has become arguably the surprise package of this season. He has lowered the colours of two of Britain’s best hopes for Festival glory in the novice hurdling division and following Friday’s stylish victory he has rightly made his way to the top of Cheltenham’s antepost lists. The fact the race was falsely run makes it tough to be too dogmatic about the race and its consequences but combine that with the defeat of Oscar Rock, albeit in a similarly slowly run affair, and the son of Pierre is easy to get excited about. He will be seven in March which is quite advanced in age for a novice hurdler and chances are he will not have the use of the Champion jockey at the Festival. These may be held against him but it would be folly to rule out further progress especially when faced with a searching gallop. The Tolworth and the Challow have been mentioned as possible next ports of call in a campaign geared around the Neptune. That will reduce the chances of him appearing in these pages any time soon, though if he does take in the Tolworth and if his trainer has a change of heart he will be a worthy addition to the Supreme reckoning.

Supreme Novices Update: Vaniteux, Vautour and Rathvinden

It is possible this week had little bearing on the Supreme Novices’ in March. Unlike with last week’s Grade 1 Royal Bond there were no ‘trials’ to speak of for the two milers while the Neptune was well catered for. Faugheen looks to be heading that way after his saunter round Navan, but were he to drop back to two miles the Supreme would be a realistic target given the impression he has made despite his inexperience.

In England, Vaniteux’s display at Sandown was perhaps the most meaningful in Supreme terms. He readily saw off second season novice Vibrato Valtat, who had shaped well in a fiercely competitive novice handicap at Cheltenham on his seasonal reappearance, and the pair came clear of the third Champagne At Tara, Jonjo O’Neill’s well-regarded prospect who had finished fourth in a hot Cheltenham bumper on his previous start. Vaniteux, now in the care of Nicky Henderson having acquitted himself adequately in two point-to-points, hurdled fluently throughout the contest until the second last where a not insignificant error knocked him back on his heels as he was about to join the lead. He had to be vigorously ridden to assert late on but once he did the victory appeared almost emphatic, as Vibrato Valtat had no response to his rival’s superior stamina and ability. Without the mishap at the penultimate flight Vaniteux would have run out an even more taking winner. His jumping, on the evidence of one run of course, is accomplished, albeit clearly not infallible, and he is blessed with more speed than one might expect from a gelding with his background. This son of eminent, but sadly departed, stallion Voix Du Nord possesses the right mix of attributes to make a talented two mile novice hurdler though probably not at the level required for a Supreme contender. Even accounting for the late blunder, Vaniteux should have dispatched the formerly disappointing juvenile Vibrato Valtat if he has graded Festival aspirations. The distance back to Champagne At Tara may be cause for encouragement, he has shown the potential to make it at a higher grade, but he was never really put into the race on Saturday with future targets over further almost certainly in mind.  At this stage Nicky Henderson also has other, more viable candidates for the Supreme, a factor which could see this four-year-old targeted elsewhere.

Another trainer with no shortage of viable candidates, some would say a plethora, is Willie Mullins. He gets stronger in the novice hurdling department by the week and the depth of his squad is such that arguably his best novice hurdlers, like the aforementioned Faugheen and Champion Bumper winner Briar Hill, could avoid the Supreme. This weekend Mullins unleashed two more exciting types over hurdles and it is difficult to decide who was more impressive, Vautour or Rathvinden. Of the two, Vautour is the only one quoted for the Supreme and his smooth success in the four-year-olds only contest at Navan on Saturday marks him out as one to take seriously. His hurdling experience in France stood him in good stead here as his jumping was quick and accurate and he settled immediately. His experience gave him an advantage over many but even so he still had far too much for this field as, with the most minimal of urgings, he cruised clear from the last. Often maiden hurdles of this type are big on numbers but low on quality outside of one standout, however on this occasion Vautour may have beaten some reasonable novices. The second and fourth had both won Punchestown bumpers while the third had won his only other race in France. The first four in this field have potential in this realm; it is unlikely to be a case of Willie Mullins’ charge beating ‘nothing’.

Willie Mullins has done particularly well with the progeny of Robin Des Champs and Vautour is another. He has always been held in high esteem and plenty was expected of him despite being beaten on his two starts in France. Both those defeats came on heavy and it is likely he improved for better ground faced at Navan, as offspring of this sire often do. We will inevitably learn more about his ability as he rises in class but it is hard to imagine he won’t be able to cope against the more established Irish novices and it will be interesting to see what his conqueror on his final French start, Black River, achieves once given another opportunity by Paul Nicholls, having fallen at Newbury. There are very few things to hold against Vautour, his hurdling is sound and effective, he settles nicely, has the speed for two miles and handles any ground with preference for a quicker surface, akin to one he would probably face at Cheltenham. Like nearly everything at the Mullins base in Closutton he is one to be positive about, as for a Supreme bid? We will just have to wait for Willie’s plans.  

It would be nice to think Rathvinden will be among those plans as he races in the colours of Ronnie Bartlett, colours that would have already been carried to victory in the Supreme had connections made the right decision with Simonsig (although saying the Neptune was the wrong decision would be ridiculous). The five-year-old son of Heron Island came from the same source as Simonsig, Northern Irish trainer Ian Ferguson. Bartlett bought the horse following a resounding success at Downpatrick in June. The race was only a lady riders’ bumper but one can imagine Ferguson recommending the gelding to his new owner and Rathvinden was soon in the care of Willie Mullins. The plan had been to go straight over hurdles yet his work had been so good they went for a bumper under a penalty at Cork. Settled in second for most of the way he travelled strongly until two out where he was shaken up and a sharp turn-of-foot saw he burst clear. That was a striking twelve length win for his new trainer and he was sent back over course and distance on Sunday to do the same again, this time over obstacles. His jumping was more than sufficient if not, understandably, as confident as Vautour’s and, having hugged the inside in behind the leaders for the rest of the contest, he was switched out as he approached the third last at which a brave jump saw him hit the front. The race was as good as over at that point as his rider Paul Townend, the only one not hard at work, looked round for non-existent dangers. His notable acceleration reappeared as he put distance between him and those toiling in behind.

Rathvinden was barely shaken up here over two miles and produced no shortage of speed. Whether this will prove his optimal trip this season is debatable. I feel he looks at home over two miles but then the opposition he has taken on has been rather lacking. His acceleration might be too easy to overplay given the limitations of those in behind and he is seeing out his races well enough not to have any concerns about an increase in distance. In fact, the Downpatrick Ladies race was over two-and-a-quarter miles, whilst he fell at the last when with every chance over three miles in his only point. Rathvinden is just quoted for the Neptune at the Festival and a step up in trip might be inescapable but, much like Simonsig, I would be keen to see him tested against better rivals over the minimum trip.

Supreme Novices Update: Moyle Park, Garde La Victoire, Irving, Regal Encore and Dubai Prince

This season’s build up to the Cheltenham Festival will be the same as always. It will feel long and drawn out until that Tuesday in March arrives when there will be a sense of disbelief, with so many wondering where the time has gone. During the long drawn out periods there is plenty of time to reassess and alter your thoughts on a race like the Supreme, especially this year with the lack of a standout and the now ever present danger of backing a horse destined for the Neptune. My first thoughts for the 2014 renewal were that Moyle Park was the horse to be with given his bumper exploits and the probability of his trainer, Willie Mullins, keeping him to two miles. On Sunday, Moyle Park did little on his hurdling debut to put me off him, for all was it far from a faultless effort.

The Flemensfirth gelding began his career in the care of Rathvin trainer Harry Kelly, for whom he sauntered away with a well contested Leopardstown bumper, Blackmail, who went on to boost the form, was back in second. Next seen in January at the Cheltenham sales, he was purchased by the 2013 Supreme winning connections for £250,000. His target was soon confirmed to be the Land Rover Bumper at the Punchestown Festival and the result tells you it was mission accomplished. However, it was far from straightforward as he took a ferocious hold in the hands of Patrick Mullins, forcing him to hit the front earlier than ideal. He also had to give over a stone to the second and third. It may have seemed inevitable therefore that he would been passed in the final furlong but he found more, showing his class to see off Wrath Of Titans and Classic Move. Both have won a bumper since and each delivered significant promise for the future on their hurdling debuts last week, with Wrath Of Titans filling third spot behind Moyle Park at Navan.

Clearly work has been done to help him settle as, while he was still keen, he was less trouble for his rider on Sunday, this time Ruby Walsh. There was no attempt to find cover, as Patrick Mullins had been at pains to do at Punchestown, and connections are convinced he will become more tractable with racing. For the time being the increased likelihood of a stronger pace will see him stick to trips around two miles and the quicker he learns to settle the more effective Moyle Park will be in top races. Having looked potentially top class last season, the manner in which he breezed clear of two more than fair rivals here suggests he is well on his way to that status even if there is a concern about his jumping. For much of the race he lacked fluency, guessing at the first two and getting in too close at three more, but as the contest developed in the straight his jumping improved, with accurate leaps at three and two out carrying him to the front. A fast pace should prove integral to Moyle Park settling in future and on the basis of this first run over hurdles it could prove integral to his jumping. If he can he can avoid taking such a strong grip in his races, his stride will not be stifled and he will be able to take a cut at his hurdles, akin to the last three on Sunday. This five-year-old is a real prospect and, with experience, could prove a threat to all in the Supreme once his jumping improves and he learns to settle.

Similar comments should apply to a horse who again advertised his Supreme credentials with a convincing defeat of a well-touted JP McManus owned novice hurdler. Garde La Victoire took the notable scalp of Champion Bumper runner-up Regal Encore at Aintree on his first try over hurdles, but with excuses for Anthony Honeyball’s charge he may not have received the credit he deserved. At Warwick on Wednesday he came up against the Alan King trained, Gone Too Far. Another with stronger bumper form than Garde La Victoire, he had made a promising start to his hurdling career at Wetherby with a relatively facile success and was made an odds on favourite to beat the Philip Hobbs contender.

It may have been a sign of intent from his trainer that he ran him in the same race Menorah won on his way to Supreme success. They could have found a simpler assignment for this four-year-old but they clearly have faith in him and that faith was justified with this commanding eleven length victory. Garde La Victoire is a huge, solid unit, built for chasing and he is yet to pay enough respect to his hurdles. He appears somewhat clumsy, though he is such a powerful sort that when he makes mistakes it rarely halts his momentum and his spectacular leap at the third hints at the scope he has. He was keen from the outset once more at Warwick but there is no necessity for him to find cover with Richard Johnson content with a handy position despite looking from the outside like he could get run away with. The Kapgarde gelding shapes as if there is significant improvement to come in all facets of his performance and his aggressive, arguably relentless, style is pleasing to watch.

Despite the prior promise from Gone Too Far I would be reluctant to use the margin back to him as a reason to laud Garde La Victoire. He did not appear comfortable from an early stage and while he saw the race out well enough to finish second I doubt that this was a true reflection of his ability even accounting for the form of his Wetherby win taking a knock with the tame performance of Varom at Haydock. I suspect Garde La Victoire will relish the prospect of fences and we should see what he is really capable of in a year’s time. He is not one to underestimate over hurdles however, as he has been so far, and I hope he gets the chance to test how serious his Supreme Novice aspirations are in a race like the Grade 1 Tolworth Hurdle at Sandown where he would likely face the Paul Nicholls trained, Irving.   

Irving was a smart purchase off the level from Germany. Fourth place in a Listed contest was arguably his best effort and he was seen as an ideal type for hurdles. Nicholls started Irving off at Taunton, a racecourse he often uses to unleash some of his recruits from the continent. A very steady gallop was set by the leader and Irving was pulling throughout the contest but bar one early mistake and a rap of the last his jumping was nicely measured. Despite travelling freely his burst of speed to see off the Nicky Henderson trained Cup Final, another well regarded novice for JP McManus, was deadly. Nick Schofield was still taking a grip over the last but once asked to lengthen his rivals were left standing. Taunton is usually a test of speed and for this ex-flat performer it was a test that was supposed to suit. On the other hand plenty went wrong and an impression was left that the better the race the better he would be.

It was assumed he would face a much sterner test at Ascot on Friday where he came up against one more Nicky Henderson inmate, Tradewinds. He had looked a talented individual when routing a decent field in a Kempton bumper in February before narrowly losing out at Ayr but failed to show any sparkle at Ascot thereby leaving the race to Irving from an early stage. Again he came up against a painfully sedate pace, which in fairness did not suit Tradewinds, and Irving was a little free but settled better than he had done at Taunton. He had evidently improved from his initial experience, jumping especially well this time and he quickened clear from his ‘rivals’ in the sprint up the straight. It is still difficult to know what to make of this son of Singspiel, he has only contested two weak races over hurdles and both were almost farcical slowly run affairs. The Tolworth will prove very informative and it may test his jumping out of bad ground. At this stage Irving strikes me as a hurdler all about speed who may appreciate flatter tracks, I can imagine Paul Nicholls is already thinking about Aintree at the end of the season. Despite possessing an intimidating turn-of-foot, he may lack the requisite stamina for Cheltenham.

Regal Encore, who after his defeat to the aforementioned Garde La Victoire, was found an embarrassingly easy assignment at Plumpton where, encouragingly, his hurdling was far slicker. We will learn more about him over hurdles when he takes on stronger opposition but with the widely held belief that he is being primed for a tilt at February’s Betfair Hurdle at Newbury, à la My Tent Or Yours, it is unlikely to happen before then.

Dubai Prince is another who was found an inviting opening but this time at Leicester. He is probably the classiest recruit from the flat that the Bloomfields operation have had to deal with having only started 8/1 for the 2011 Champion Stakes and he was last seen winning a Group 3 at York. The primary concern with these talented flat performers is whether they will take to hurdling. Fortunately for connections, Dubai Prince impressed with an assured display and any questions over having the necessary stamina were quashed as he cruised to a six lengths win. The form amounts to very little but his trainer, John Ferguson, knows what he is doing with this sort of animal and hopefully he will progress. I am not a fan of classy flat horses like him in the Supreme and I will look to oppose him as he steps up in class. Nevertheless, he was particularly good on the level and, even though I should not admit it, I did take that 8/1 for the Champion Stakes and I am prepared to be surprised. 

Supreme Novices Update: Sky Bet Supreme Trial Novices' Hurdle

The more I watch racing the more I think trainer form is important. There are any number of yards whose horses are different beasts when they turn up to the racecourse with the yard “in form”. Spotting when a trainer is about to hit form or acknowledging how well their horses are running at an early stage is an invaluable tool, as is sensing when a team of horses are starting to struggle. The problem is, as with almost everything in racing, it’s not an exact science. Deciding at the right time that a yard is out of form is difficult because short-term results can be misleading. It is so often the case during the Cheltenham Festival that a major trainer has a number of fancied runners on one day which all seem to under-perform, resulting in murmurings of concern about the yard’s horses. Then the next day they will have winners of the highest profile. Some take the view that the very best horses can rise above the form of the yard and it would have been possible to argue that on Sunday had David Pipe not had a one-two in the opening conditional jockeys’ handicap hurdle. In reality, too much weight was put on the performances of his runners over the first two days of Cheltenham’s Open Meeting and evidently questioning the yard’s form was a far too short-termist approach.

The Liquidator

Among David Pipe’s battalion on Sunday were three of his smartest prospects. All three were successful but none were more exciting than The Liquidator who confirmed the abundant promise he had shown on hurdling debut at Carlisle. Much of the talk in the build up to Sunday’s race was concerning the reappearance of Supreme ante-post favourite, West Wizard. Few horses have been built up more this season than the son of Westerner but connections sensibly decided to skip the race in order to give him a simpler assignment for his first start over hurdles. His presence would naturally have frightened off a few rivals, hence it was disappointing in his absence for the race to cut up so badly to only four runners. All four were at least coming into the race on the back of a win over hurdles, while Sea Lord was looking to make it seven wins in a row for the Bloomfields operation and was made favourite to do so.

A small field increases the likelihood of a tactical, falsely run race and as the runners trundled to the start nothing looked enamoured with the idea of setting the pace. Tom Scudamore, keen to avoid the fate which befell Oscar Whisky over fences on Friday, took the initiative knowing The Liquidator had made all in a similarly small field at Exeter last season and his bumper performances suggested he would not excel in a sprint. It did seem odd that Daryl Jacob decided to track the pace on Lac Fontana having posted a bloodless victory from the front over the course in October and given the doubts over two miles being enough of a test for him in decent company. He cut out very tamely from the third last, however, indicating perhaps that whatever his rider did he would not have been a factor in the result. Lac Fontana had never given the impression he was capable of having an impact in a race as competitive as the Supreme and this display ruled out that possibility. Whether a problem is found or not one imagines he will be given a break and return over a longer trip.

Ploughing a lone furrow out in front was far from ideal for The Liquidator but he has an enviable attitude and gave no hint that he was anything other than willing. Enthusiastic, accurate jumping characterised his victory at Carlisle and it was the same at Cheltenham. He has such tremendous spring in his legs it is hard to envisage him making a mistake. The only minor issue came at the third last where he jumped impressively, as ever, but landed in a chewed up piece of turf, nodding slightly as his hooves dug in. This is particularly pernickety though as one would be hard pushed to find a novice who jumps better.

For the first part of the race Scudamore only set steady fractions on The Liquidator, allowing each runner to take the first three flights in their stride as they travelled within themselves. He then quickened the pace on the approach to the fourth hurdle, an injection which his rivals, particularly Sea Lord, struggled to cope with. Sea Lord’s inability to handle, national hunt bred, The Liquidator’s speed is ironic given his flat pedigree/past and many felt two miles round Cheltenham would prove an insufficient test for The Liquidator, not vice versa. Essentially, the race was settled from that moment on as Sea Lord, Lac Fontana and Minellaforleisure found the test more and more exacting.

This was a destructive performance from David Pipe’s charge, he pulled a long way clear of a group of smart rivals with the winning distance of fifteen lengths underestimating his superiority. He already looks to have what is required to win a Supreme Novices’ Hurdle, exemplary jumping, Grade 1 bumper winning form, he is tactically versatile, handles any ground and has winning form around Cheltenham over hurdles as well as a prominent showing in the Champion Bumper like the last three Supreme winners. There was a general feeling before the season started that The Liquidator was more of a staying type with the Neptune standing out as his preferred long term target but he proved he had the speed on Sunday, having won the “Supreme Trial”, and all roads must lead to the Festival’s opener. The Liquidator is available at 14/1 for the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle at the moment and that appears generous even at this early stage, he is ready made for the test a Supreme would present and in my opinion deserves to be favourite.  

If there is a danger of getting carried away with The Liquidator’s stellar performance it is because the favourite on Sunday, Sea Lord may not have given his running. He was in trouble from such an early stage, having been caught out by The Liquidator’s acceleration, that his ability to handle the track and or wellbeing can come into question but I prefer to see it as the first time he met a high class rival, in form. The son of Cape Cross just lacks the substantial ability of the winner and the jockey reported Sea Lord needs further in this higher company, consequently the Neptune is now being considered. Improvement can be expected over a longer trip, in view of his late surge up the demanding Cheltenham hill, but I would be reluctant to suggest he could make up into a Grade 1 performer and his jumping would surely come under scrutiny again having made a blunder at the third last here. He did finish second in the end yet he only just collared the outsider of the field, Minellaforleisure on the line. Minellaforleisure easily won an uncompetitive novice event at Wincanton last time out but he was thought to be some way below this level. An enterprising ride saw him move through the race like the second best horse and this performance suggests he was underrated having only recently got over the physical problems that plagued him last season. The assumption that Sea Lord was a significantly better animal than Minellaforleisure over this trip seems inaccurate and the King’s Theatre gelding deserves to be taken seriously this campaign for all his handicap mark will suffer after this.

The Liquidator was not the only potential Supreme Novices’ candidate to deliver at Cheltenham for David Pipe as Red Sherlock took the traditionally strong bumper in style. The prospect of seeing him over hurdles is thrilling and if The Liquidator is going to come up short in the novice hurdle division it will probably be due to the likes of him; the imposing, flashy performers, replete with talent.  

Supreme Novices Update: Minella Foru & Very Wood

To lose their chance at Festival glory in the most exciting race of them all (arguably) on the day before the race must have been agonising for the connections of Melodic Rendezvous. His season had been carefully orchestrated by Jeremy Scott and he was among the leading contenders for the Supreme until fate intervened. Last season, despite not getting the opportunity to prove me right or wrong, I suspect I was guilty of underrating Melodic Rendezvous. The horses he beat often appeared to have valid excuses and I struggled to get too excited about him but in reality he was a rapidly progressing novice set to peak for Cheltenham. His performance at Wincanton on Saturday certainly gave an indication of what he might have achieved had he made it to the start. Defeating a fully fit Far West in that manner was hugely impressive and I will try not to underestimate him in future. This season, Minella Foru might fit into the same mould as Melodic Rendezvous in that he is easy to underrate and excuses for his main rival on Sunday were evident for all to see.   

Minella Foru began his hurdling career in good style at Listowel, having previously taken the eye of point-to-point followers at Lemonfield, yet despite Eddie Harty not hiding the regard in which he is held the four-year-old was still trumped in the Navan market on Sunday by Gigginstown’s exciting prospect, Very Wood. The pace set by the market leader was ponderous at best, but Minella Foru dealt with it well. He was keen but not in a way that would prove detrimental to his chances, while his jumping was little short of ideal for a two mile novice hurdler. There was barely a semblance of a mistake, so swift over the obstacles; he hurdled with a fluency that was all the more striking given the leader’s antics. As the pace quickened from the third last, Minella Foru responded willingly to his rider AP McCoy’s urgings, picking up well to reach and pass Very Wood. This performance showed off plenty of Minella Foru’s assets, particularly his speed which will serve him well as he steps up in class but as a contest the race was somewhat unsatisfactory and his superiority over the second, at the line, could be misleading.

Very Wood was among a batch of point-to-pointers who were trained by Gordon Elliott before being sent elsewhere for their novice hurdle careers. Following a narrow defeat in his first point-to-point, Very Wood took his second in style defeating Champagne Tara, a bumper winner for Jonjo O’Neill since, by four lengths. Before losing him for this season, Elliott ran him in a lucrative Punchestown Festival bumper in which he again ran out an easy winner. One could not help but look forward to his future over obstacles after that and, having moved to Noel Meade, he delivered what many expected on his hurdling debut at Galway. Davy Russell gradually wound the race up from the front pulling nicely clear of the second and a long way clear of the third. He shaped like a relentless galloper on this occasion with a step up in trip looking inevitable. Noel Meade clearly didn’t share that view, deciding instead to stick to two miles on Sunday. There was enough to take from his previous run to suggest he could remain successful over the minimum trip, assuming he could gallop his rivals into submission. Very Wood’s jumping around the right-handed Galway was adequate, with no causes for concern, and connections were confident of a smart performance.

If Minella Foru is a serious candidate for the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle then going down a length-and-a-half was a smart performance for a horse like Very Wood who is a classic Gigginstown prospect, unlikely to reach his full potential until he sees three miles and fences. Very Wood and Minella Foru are different types of horses and the sprint for home would have suited the former far less than the latter. Davy Russell, making the running on Very Wood, had the opportunity to set a real test but his mount did very little to help their cause. He lugged right from the start, jumped out to the right at each hurdle, with varying degrees of severity, and even struggled to navigate some of the left-handed bends. He must have given away a significant amount of ground to his rivals and it is tempting to think that without the wayward tendencies or on a right-handed track, he would have come out on top. However, it also the case that Very Wood was better placed for the sprint finish, than the resulting winner, having had his own way out in front. While AP McCoy, renowned for his strength in a finish when necessary, was hardly all out to settle matters aboard Minella Foru.

Such was the farcical nature of the race it is difficult to draw too many conclusions about the respective merits of the front two. In terms of the Supreme, Very Wood was always more likely to excel over further and, now there appears to be a problem with left-handed tracks, connections may already be looking past Cheltenham to Punchestown for their long term targets. I am trying to keep an open mind with regards to Minella Foru. There is the slight possibility that Very Wood is exceptional and Minella Foru did well to beat him but if he wants to become a top two mile novice he would have to beat a stayer like Very Wood in this manner especially considering the circumstances. Eddie Harty has suggested that his next run will be in the Royal Bond Novice Hurdle on December 1 or the Future Champions Novice Hurdle at Leopardstown's Christmas meeting. Either way we will learn more about his Supreme credentials then as he takes on the best available in Ireland. Despite his precise jumping and rare natural speed the likelihood of meeting rivals from higher profile yards means he may well be underestimated again.

Supreme Novices Update: The Liquidator

Over a period of about 15 minutes on Friday afternoon, two exceptional looking novices made their hurdling debuts. Oscar Rock (Wetherby) and Carraig Mor (Uttoxeter) took their respective fields apart, winning hard held in both cases by nineteen and twenty-five lengths respectively. Each came into their races with great expectations, Oscar Rock having lit up the bumper scene and Carraig Mor having impressed onlookers in his sole point to point as well as his trainer in that sphere, Adrian Maguire. Carraig Mor’s jumping was the more accomplished but neither set of connections could be blamed for already having at least one eye on the Cheltenham Festival. The Neptune and Albert Bartlett novices’ hurdles will inevitably come under consideration having begun their hurdling careers over two-and-a-half miles, and they are a pair every National Hunt fan can look forward to.

The Liquidator, having begun his hurdling career last week over two miles and one furlong, does have Supreme prospects despite being thought of as a stayer in some quarters. Bought out of Shark Hanlon’s yard, following a placed effort in a hot Fairyhouse bumper, The Liquidator started his career for David Pipe in the Listed National Hunt flat race at Cheltenham’s Open Meeting. On this occasion, on an afternoon where it appeared particularly difficult to make up ground, he travelled sweetly in midfield, only moving into a share of the lead as they turned for home. The effort to make up this ground in the holding conditions took its toll, as he was outstayed by the long-time leader, Anonis. He followed up this promising effort with, essentially, a trot around Exeter against three vastly inferior rivals. Little was learnt from that exercise and he returned to Cheltenham for the Champion Bumper still, somewhat, as an unknown quantity. For whatever reason The Liquidator didn’t seem comfortable for much of the contest, possibly struggling with the pace, despite its lack of ferocity, but he never completely lost his position and he stayed on encouragingly after being left behind by the first three, almost snatching third on the line. Finishing so well in a race notoriously tough on horses could have spelt the end of a successful season for David Pipe’s recruit but given his admirable consistency and progression from run to run he was handed the opportunity to finish on a high.

In Punchestown’s equivalent bumper to Cheltenham’s Champion version, won the previous season by Supreme Novices’ Hurdle winner Champagne Fever, rising star Jane Mangan was offered the ride. Ridden handily on the outside of runners, the pace was no issue this time as he travelled like the Grade 1 animal he would soon prove to be. Produced to lead entering the straight, the son of Overbury quickened clear at the furlong pole and saw the race out gamely as challengers plugged on at the one pace. It was a textbook ride and a textbook performance from this five-year-old, one that must not be underestimated as the next three all won on their hurdling debuts, with the second, Gilt Shadow, looking particularly impressive in doing so on Saturday.

Purely in form terms such success could have been predicted, but having seen him in the flesh on each English start last season it did surprise me. The Liquidator was a scrawny, lightly framed, essentially unimposing individual last season and as a result I convinced myself he could not achieve what one might have hoped, particularly over hurdles. If I was going to be against one exciting bumper performer from last season over hurdles it was going to be him yet reports were that he had filled his inconsiderable frame over the summer and developed well. From what I could see of him on television before his introduction to hurdles at Carlisle it was hard to get away from the sense that he had grown and, in relation to his rivals, become a more imposing specimen. He then put in a display that forced me to reconsider and, even at this early stage, I have to see him as a realistic contender for the Supreme, if that is the route they choose to go down.

David Pipe enjoys starting his talented novices in weak events in order to build confidence. For The Liquidator he certainly found a field that lacked any serious dangers. Consequently, it is easy to write this off as a race that The Liquidator should be winning easily and think little more of it however I am keen to be very positive. Unsurprisingly, he cruised through the race and quickened clear in effortless fashion, outclassing his floundering rivals, confirming the impression he left last season. Here it was his jumping that grabbed my attention. While he may lack the scope for a chaser he does not lack the athleticism and it is understandable if that is the ultimate aim. The Liquidator showed a natural aptitude for jumping at Carlisle, making the right shape over each hurdle, treating them with the right mix of respect and attack. His technique is such that it should stand up to the pressure of a stronger pace, in a higher quality field. Very few hurdling debutants will jump with such authority, therefore, while it might feel natural to step him up in distance the greatest advantage to be gained, from this asset, will be over the minimum trip.

I hope The Liquidator will have a campaign geared around the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle. He may lack the raw speed and quality of some but the ability to see out the trip strongly is crucial. There could be a niggling doubt about his suitability for Cheltenham given his two defeats last season came at the venue however one was on ground that played against him while the other was the toughest race of its kind hence it would be remiss of anyone to be too critical of that run and he has improved since.

If you already fancy The Liquidator for the Festival’s traditional curtain raiser the real concern is the prospect of him running instead in the Neptune over two miles and five furlongs. Soft ground round Carlisle would have been a stamina test in and of itself and The Liquidator powered clear up the run-in, with the margin of victory increasing the further he went. This run gave every indication that he would be just as effective, if not more so over further and when one looks back again at the Champion Bumper, he stormed up the Cheltenham hill in a race that traditionally suits stayers. Finally, David Pipe’s strength in the last season’s bumper division may prove significant as he could have an even more exciting prospect for the Supreme, potentially more exciting than any British trained hopeful, in the shape of Red Sherlock. He has a huge amount more to prove than The Liquidator, not least in the jumping department, but he showed an element of brilliance last season that his stablemate just lacks. With such a long way to go I am perhaps getting ahead of myself and I am arguably doing The Liquidator a disservice since even as the season progresses it will be difficult to find a more solid proposition for the top novice hurdle prizes.   

Supreme Novices Update 2013/14 so far

The long road to Cheltenham has begun in earnest once again. While a drier summer than usual has led to many of jump racing’s big guns being behind schedule, we could well have seen a number of this season’s Festival winners already. Whether the winner of the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle is among them is questionable.

There have been notable performances from horses with realistic Supreme aspirations, although mainly in Ireland where the season gets going earlier. Minella Foru, a winner of a particularly competitive point-to-point at Lemonfield, made his hurdling debut in September. He jumped well and posted a cosy victory over a strongly fancied, Willie Mullins trained French import. Mullins will know where he stands with Minella Foru given his enviable abundance of novice hurdle talent but Eddie Harty’s four-year-old has considerable capacity for improvement, for all that he has a long way to go to be the next Captain Cee Bee.

Carriganog was Aidan O’Brien’s first runner over hurdles for some time. Subsequent to an underwhelming career in bumpers, he was sent to Robbie Power over the summer in order to teach him how to jump and this son of Shantou delivered two fluent successes hinting at bigger things. The form of those in behind Carriganog amounts to very little and he is already being spoken of as a chaser but his quick hurdling technique and extraordinary trainer make it difficult to surmise just what level he can reach this season.  

Working out which of Willie Mullins’ bumper horses to concentrate on in terms of the Supreme is hard enough before factoring in the inevitable imports from the continent and the flat. One such import is Arctic Fire who received quotes for the Festival opener following his striking Irish debut at Tipperary. Slick jumping and a decisive turn-of-foot between the last two flights separated him from his inferior rivals, attributes which bode well for the future. His trainer has so many options in this division that it would almost be imprudent to earmark any for a particular Festival target but Arctic Fire is one candidate for Willie Mullins who should not be required to step up in trip.

The most interesting novice hurdle over two miles this season and the race most likely to have a bearing on the Cheltenham Festival curtain raiser in March did come this side of the Irish Sea at Aintree on Saturday. Despite Champion Bumper winner, Briar Hill heading numerous ante-post lists for the Supreme, the way he shaped in bumpers and his pedigree point towards a hurdling campaign over longer distances. As such, for many the obvious next port of call for this season’s Supreme Novices’ Hurdle winner was Champion Bumper runner-up, Regal Encore. Having reportedly schooled well, Saturday’s return to action was eagerly anticipated and there was enough confidence behind him to be sent off the 8/15 favourite.

Settled in rear by McCoy, who may have expected or at least hoped for a stronger pace, Regal Encore travelled strongly to three out, having moved wide on the final turn in for home. Then, probably with education in mind, McCoy was keen to find cover for much of the straight and only asked for a serious effort as they approached the last. Regal Encore had already made up significant ground to get into contention at the last but the winner of the race, Garde La Victoire, had been given too much rope. McCoy quickly accepted that they were unable to reach the leader and was far from hard on the son of Kings Theatre who stayed on encouragingly, gradually closing the gap to the winner on the run in.

For one among the best in the bumper sphere last season this might be seen as a disappointing defeat for Anthony Honeyball’s charge, but there is no reason to write off Regal Encore as a Supreme candidate yet. At Aintree he appeared to be outpaced by the winner, merely staying on too late as if in need of further. A step up to two-and-a-half miles would be unlikely to cause him a problem yet I get the sense a fast run two miles will prove his optimum for the time being and the Supreme is often a race for strong stayers. His jumping on Saturday was accurate and with further experience, as well as a more aggressive ride, it is not difficult to foresee the form being reversed.

There was enough to take from this race to be excited about his future and the performance was reminiscent of My Tent Or Yours’ defeat at the hands of Chatterbox last season. Concerned about the soft ground at Newbury, on a horse who was particularly difficult to settle at the time, McCoy was at pains to hold My Tent Or Yours up for as long as he could in order to avoid a hard race with future targets in mind. One of those future targets was the Betfair Hurdle back at Newbury in February, which he won in handsome fashion. It is a race that could well suit Regal Encore in time, especially given the likely progress he will make between now and then after this pleasing introduction to hurdles.

Based largely on last season’s achievements, the runner-up on Saturday still seems the more appealing prospect for the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle but that might be doing a disservice to the aforementioned winner, Garde La Victoire. Following a convincing victory in a junior bumper at Exeter last October, numerous factors contributed to his absence from the racecourse until this weekend. The son of Kapgarde was understandably underestimated having come into the race off just one run in moderate company. Having been so difficult to assess before the race, it is evident afterwards that he is a talented novice hurdler. This powerful looking individual pulled hard from the outset but Richard Johnson was able to retain his position just in behind the leaders before an impressive leap at the fourth last took him to the front. He had jumped well up until that point, displaying a reassuring aptitude for hurdles. However, once left alone in the home straight he lost concentration, becoming clumsy at the last three flights, offering a glimmer of hope to the favourite in pursuit. Nevertheless, Garde La Victoire’s laudable attitude allowed him to maintain his advantage as he put his head down and galloped all the way to the line.

This four-year-old has scope in abundance and given his hard-pulling tendencies, two miles will surely be his ideal trip. Hence, were he to make a top novice hurdler this season, his Festival target would be the Supreme, something that can be said for very few exciting prospects this season. His trainer Philip Hobbs knows what it takes to win the race, taking the prize with Menorah in 2010, and if they can curtail his free-going nature he may well pose a threat on the day. From what little evidence we have of him, Garde La Victoire looks ready made for fences and I suggest that is where his future lies. Therefore, were he to make it to Cheltenham in March as a leading contender it would be a surprise, but certainly not an unwelcome one.

Supreme Novices’ Hurdle Prediction: 1-2-3

Despite the incessant reading, listening, tweeting and thinking about Cheltenham, it is somewhat hard to believe that the Festival has all but arrived. Throughout the season I have tried to set out my views on the key trials for the Supreme, detailing how the possible contenders have shaped and hopefully pointing out reasons for and against supporting each horse in advance of the big race next week. It should have become clear who I am keenest on but just in case, now seems the right time to definitively predict the result. Here are the three I fancy to finish first, second and third:

3^rd – Champagne Fever

With the strongest Irish form available it might seem foolish to leave Jezki out of the top three, especially when he has already beaten the third place selection in the Royal Bond Novice Hurdle. Despite doing all that has been asked of him this season, there are reasons to think Jezki will not achieve at Cheltenham what many people are expecting. His emphatic victory at Leopardstown last time forced many to sit up and take notice of this son of Milan but the form has since been let down by Waaheb who during that race at Leopardstown made a horrendous blunder thereby exaggerating the winning distance. There are still concerns about Jezki’s jumping, despite showing significant improvement travelling left-handed, and the good ground he apparently needs to be seen at his best is not materialising. He may, on the face of it, standout as a solid each-way play, but despite preferring to see Jezki’s last run at Cheltenham as largely irrelevant, the way he faded up the hill behind Champagne Fever continues to niggle. The received wisdom is that Willie Mullins’ gangly grey lacks the speed for two miles and the late wavering over his target, between this and the three mile Albert Bartlett, can only be a negative. However, he managed to hold off much ‘faster’ rivals in the Champion Bumper when there were similar concerns and the recent rain will help, he could prove just as hard to pass at Cheltenham over hurdles. I suspect he will lack the speed to win this race but he still looks capable of finishing in the frame. There will likely come a point in the race where he looks sure to be swamped, yet his jumping is good and bold enough to keep him in front for a long way, while his class should help him see off a number of overrated rivals. More than three horses could easily pass Champagne Fever, but such is his abundant stamina, I can see the speedier contenders trying to compete with My Tent Or Yours’ turn of foot and failing, finishing tired, while the stoutly bred son of Stowaway flies up the hill, snatching a place.

2^nd – My Tent Or Yours

Recent defeats for heavily backed, short priced favourites in the Supreme should not be a reason to oppose My Tent Or Yours. He was sensationally impressive in the Betfair Hurdle at Newbury, with three progressive young handicappers making the frame. Nothing in behind can be used to hold the form down, so in a misguided attempt to crab the performance, a slow pace and a beneficially prominent ride have been given as reasons to knock My Tent Or Yours. If anything, I expect a faster pace would have seen Nicky Henderson’s charge appear even more imperious, given his tendency to pull hard. Some have even questioned what My Tent Or Yours finds off the bridle since his Newbury rout. Well from what I could see about ten lengths, but that is debatable, what isn’t debatable is the amount he found to beat subsequent Grade 1 winning hurdler Taquin Du Seuil on hurdling debut, having jumped atrociously. That is no longer an issue with the Desert Prince gelding; his hurdling was electric in the twenty one runner Betfair Hurdle. He is developing rapidly and it would have been no surprise to see My Tent Or Yours run in the Champion Hurdle. In my opinion, this speedster is nearly bombproof as favourite and he has never struck me as being a particularly short price. I will be shocked if, barring injury, incident or illness, My Tent Or Yours does not finish in the first two on Tuesday. Consequently, it might be more sensible to select him as my winner given that I can easily envisage him taking the Festival curtain raiser in a similar fashion to the Betfair Hurdle, but there is a chance another is better and that is a chance I am willing to take.

1^st – Un Atout

The only horse in the field that I can imagine matching or bettering My Tent Or Yours is Un Atout. There was barely a more impressive, jaw-dropping bumper performance during the 2011/2012 season and his hurdling debut this time around was eagerly anticipated. Yet again he mastered his rivals with little effort, dominating the race from the front. The level of opposition he faced at Navan is questionable and the two horses that could have given a level to the form have been deprived the chance of boosting it since; with the fourth, Some Article, being carried out next time, and the second, Fickle Fortune, subsequently suffering a season ending injury. Fickle Fortune herself was an extremely pacey horse in bumpers, thus giving encouragement to those who felt Un Atout would have the speed for grade 1 races over two miles. This was despite the immediate post race comments from his trainer suggesting he is a prospective staying chaser. His jumping on debut was occasionally big, possibly giving rise to those comments, but he was accurate and fast on his next start and Davy Russell has been effusive with praise for his jumping since. Un Atout destroyed his field here, at Naas, on the bridle and he became the serious Supreme contender he is now with Willie Mullins making it clear afterwards that he was content to keep this imposing son of Robin Des Champs at two miles. This was another piece of form potentially lacking strength, with the unreliable Rory O’Moore finishing nineteen lengths away in second. The third though, Art Of Logistics, has won since at Fairyhouse, defeating the aforementioned, and still highly regarded, Waaheb, in the process. The ground at Naas was very deep and Art Of Logistics may not have handled it but the form boost he delivered at least gives substance to Un Atout’s unparalleled style.

He did miss his next intended engagement in the Deloitte due to a sub standard piece of work and even his most ardent fans have to acknowledge his lack of experience; the pace of the race, the ground, the atmosphere and the crowd at Prestbury Park will all be new to him. But he has shown no sign of temperament in his three runs so far, he is a relaxed individual and I would be confident that he will take everything in his powerful stride. The faster pace and the potential emphasis on stamina created by the likes of his stablemate Champagne Fever should suit, while there is still scope for him to improve on the quicker surface at Cheltenham. The Festival will almost certainly start on soft but it will be far removed from the deep, heavy ground Un Atout has faced runs over hurdles up to now.

This will be a truly hot renewal of the Supreme but at Willie Mullins' Closutton base Un Atout is housed in an elite group of three along with Sir Des Champs and Hurricane Fly, and I fancy he can match his illustrious neighbours' success at the Cheltenham Festival in this, the most anticipated race of the year.

1. Un Atout
2. My Tent Or Yours
3. Champagne Fever