Supreme Novices Update: Wilde Blue Yonder

Wilde Blue Yonder began his career in unexpectedly good style when narrowly failing to topple the hotly fancied Purple Bay (who would later finish fifth in the Champion Bumper) at Doncaster. A tilt at the Aintree Bumper was far from unreasonable, yet ultimately unsuccessful. He was keen early and moved through the race comfortably before being outpaced when the leading protagonists set sail for home. He stuck on well for a period until his enthusiastic nature caught up with him, finishing eleventh of nineteen. At this early stage in his career it was an eminently forgivable run.

Such a stern test did him no harm as he returned this season to outclass his opposition in a Uttoxeter bumper in early November. He then made a winning start over hurdles at Newbury in a race that, to a degree, has worked out well. Seedling stayed on into second and he has underperformed since in desperate conditions but Tiqris, whom Wilde Blue Yonder saw off nicely after a protracted battle, has won impressively since and finished second in a Listed race. Seven lengths behind the winner in fourth was the heavily punted favourite, Sign Of A Victory who bolted up in a jumpers bumper at Kempton on his next start while back in fifth, Fascino Rustico was a likely winner at Wincanton on Saturday until coming to grief, having narrowly missed out in a traditionally strong novice hurdle at Kempton on Boxing Day.

Paul Nicholls’ charge was far too keen behind Wild Blue Yonder hence his superiority over him was exaggerated and despite dossing in front he failed to beat Tiqris with the same level of ease as Josses Hill, who went onto to shape best of all when narrowly outstayed in the Tolworth. Josses Hill is a raw chaser in the making and despite both meeting Tiqris on hurdling debut it was the Winged Love gelding who was most inconvenienced by the lack of experience. Wilde Blue Yonder was generally quicker over his hurdles despite the prescient error at the final obstacle, where he almost failed to take off entirely. Josses Hill showed in the Tolworth how quickly novices can improve and Wilde Blue Yonder will need develop rapidly if he is to best Nicky Henderson's imposing prospect at Cheltenham.

A return to Newbury a month later saw him face a field of five including another Seven Barrows inmate, Stand To Reason. Largely overrated on the back of a comfortable success in lowly company at Wincanton, Stand To Reason (Wilde Blue Yonder’s only meaningful rival) was ridden with restraint by Tony McCoy, as he attempted to settle alongside. The gallop was steady until Wilde Blue Yonder quickened off the final bend applying pressure to the former flat performer. That seemed to tell as he met the third last all wrong with McCoy fortunate to maintain his partnership. Nicky Henderson’s six-year-old looked beaten.

Robert Thornton’s mount generally hurdled with fluency through the first three-quarters of the race, barring one lazy error at the fourth, yet once more as the race moved towards its climax and each jump gained greater significance his technique unravelled. At the second last this cavalier son of Oscar threw himself at the flight, giving little thought to self-preservation, and an opportunity was suddenly presented to his pursuer as Robert Thornton manfully held on.

McCoy was motionless atop Stand To Reason as they headed away from the penultimate flight but, in spite of his blunder, Wild Blue Yonder was far from beaten and regained the lead under strong pressure from his rider. Having seemingly travelled well up the straight, Stand To Reason was urged to match his gutsy rival but despite the Champion Jockey not throwing everything at his mount there appeared to be little left to give as he failed to assert at the last.

I felt Alan King’s gelding was about to go clear, his pursuer unable to cope with the testing conditions and a superior novice. That is debatable, though Wilde Blue Yonder’s clumsiness is not. Having guessed at the previous hurdle he just managed to pick his legs up high enough to avoid catastrophe, albeit narrowly. At the last he was not so lucky as he found himself in too close after a final unnecessary stride, a mistake not dissimilar to that made a month earlier from which he survived. It was a heavy, potentially confidence knocking fall.

Without the mental lapses Wilde Blue Yonder probably would have come out on top in December, though only after a hard fought tussle with his well-regarded opponent and a stretch of the imagination was needed to place him into the Supreme reckoning, even for place purposes. Considering the problems in the King camp, however, that run could be looked upon more favourably than the performance suggests. It was still hard not to be concerned by the calamitous nature of his displays though and, with his yard now through the worst of its problems, the threat of a late tumble had to be in the back of one’s mind on Saturday even if Wilde Blue Yonder had a form edge at Ascot.

Another small field awaited at the east Berkshire venue, this time he was faced with three meaningful rivals, most notably the well backed favourite and eventual winner, Mountain King. Charlie Longsdon’s Wadswick Court made the running and he set a slow pace early on, forcing much of the field to pull. Wilde Blue Yonder actually settled relatively well in rear and with minimal pressure on his jumping, he was fluent.

The race begun in earnest as Mountain King faltered at the fourth from home, in the process losing considerable ground. In order to recover, Richard Johnson woke him up, moving from last to first in striking fashion on the run to the home turn. This injection of pace caught Wilde Blue Yonder marginally flat footed as he had to be shaken up to maintain position and then join those quickening clear. The response was swift and telling, eye-catchingly making his way up the inside into the lead at the second last. Under pressure, but by no means all out, he then drew three lengths clear as earlier exertions appeared to tell for the rest apart from the pace-setter who plugged on admirably. The race looked in safe keeping, only the last flight was between Wilde Blue Yonder and an impressive victory, finally a performance worthy of a Supreme place.

Predictably, the last proved too big an obstacle for this exasperating five-year-old as once again he guessed at the flight, sprawled on landing and gave Robert Thornton another moment to forget. This mistake was reminiscent of that made at Newbury’s penultimate hurdle in December, the horse took off more in hope than expectation. He needs to have his mind made up for him, with the race at your mercy Wilde Blue Yonder is not one who can be left to sort himself out and ‘pop’ an obstacle. Given past indiscretions the jockey must shoulder some blame. By now there should have been some inkling that such an event was possible, sitting still once more was insufficient. With the emergence of First Mohican, Wayne Hutchinson may be in the saddle at Cheltenham, as Robert Thornton switches to the classy flat performer, and that can only be a plus.

Even with the services of Hutchinson, and hopefully a new plan of action, it is difficult to justify backing Wilde Blue Yonder for the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle. The risk is too great, if he is unable to cope with the pressure of small field contests several notches below the level of the Supreme how can he be trusted to keep his race intact at the last in March. Eventually this weakness is bound to be remedied and was it to vanish at Cheltenham he could prove dangerous to those solid propositions ahead of him in the market though a leap of faith is still needed.

Saturday was going to be a clear career best for Wilde Blue Yonder but I am not convinced the form will turn out to be strong and a four or five length defeat of Wadswick Court would still leave significant room for improvement if he is to become a Festival player.  

Triumph Hurdle Update: Baby Mix, Sadler’s Risk, Grumeti and Minsk

Kempton

Racing Plus chase day is traditionally informative for the Triumph Hurdle, offering the last recognised trial for the race. The Adonis Hurdle has a quite astonishing role of honour and in the last two years it has produced the last two Triumph winners, incidentally both making the debuts in this country. It is often the race where trainers target their top Triumph prospects and this was again in evidence on Saturday.

My immediate reaction to the race was to take a dim view of the form but having watched it a few more times I realise that was rash and I was probably influenced by my ill-thought-out backing of Dildar, who’s jumping will have to improve dramatically if he is to be any sort of force over hurdles. I haven’t yet warmed to Baby Mix and following his abject performance at Cheltenham, on Trials Day, I felt I had taken the right stance on him. He was undeniably impressive in the Adonis though, and with the previous antepost favourite for the Triumph (with a few bookmakers at least) in second, well clear of the third, there is more substance to the form than I had originally given credit for.

Baby Mix travelled strongly in second, during Saturday’s race, off the punishing pace set by the admirable Dark And Dangerous and, barring one shuddering error at the fourth flight, jumped noticeably well. A trait I had not associated with Tom George’s charge, he jumped particularly poorly on his last start. Paddy Brennan took it up as they turned into the straight, which was a bold move as he left himself vulnerable to not only a strong stayer but also his own questionable temperament, and his superiority told as he pulled away nicely from Sadler’s Risk. He may have given backers of the second hope as he seemingly idled towards the finish, but this was nothing less than a comfortable victory for the son of Al Namix.

Baby Mix came to everyone’s attention when he stormed clear of the well regarded Hinterland at Cheltenham’s December meeting. However, I’m yet to be convinced that was a good as it looked as Hinterland took a keen hold through the race and would clearly have benefitted from a lead. Baby Mix also showed he was not the most straightforward on the run in with the awkward way he carried himself, especially his tail. These signs were a precursor to his temperamental run at the same course in January. He fought for his head with Paddy Brennan for most of the race and found nothing of the bridle as a result. Of most concern, however, was his attempt to run out as they straightened up for home. Tom George has said he has ironed out these problems and they did not seem to affect him on Saturday but they will always be in the back of one’s mind when considering Baby Mix for the Triumph. While his defeat of Sadler’s Risk looks strong and on that basis is rightly sitting at the top of the antepost market, with the likely crowds and atmosphere at the Festival on Gold Cup day these issues may resurface and that would be enough to put me off him.

The Triumph is over one furlong further than the Adonis and if Baby Mix displays his least redeeming features in that then Sadler’s Risk looks capable of reversing the form and threatening the other major contenders in March. This son of Sadler’s Wells was useful on the flat and beat the high class Sea Moon in his maiden. He showed his toughness on the level which is important when making the transition to hurdles and on his first start for Hobbs, also at Kempton, he went off at even money and won with considerable ease. Sadler’s Risk won as impressively as one could have hoped for and he was made antepost favourite for the Triumph after the race. Many expressed concerns that he had beaten little but the Philip Hobbs stable rate him highly and were expecting him to win hence he was still sent off another well backed favourite for the Adonis. He was keen early in the race but as the pace quickened he was always going best behind Baby Mix. Unfortunately for connections he just couldn’t match the jumping or pace of the winner for all that he stayed on promisingly at the finish. He may have been flattered by the proximity to the winner but Sadler’s Risk does look a solid proposition for the Triumph with the necessary stamina and it would be remiss of me to put anyone off having a go each way but I fear he may just lack the class of some including Saturday’s winners Baby Mix and Grumeti.

It was thought that Grumeti would take in the Adonis as his last prep race for the festival but connections were eager for him not to have a hard race so close to the Triumph so they switched to the Dovecote Hurdle which, in comparison, looked easy pickings. The late withdrawal of principal rival Keys meant his only significant dangers were two horses yet to run over hurdles Terre Du Vent and Dodging Bullets. Both ran highly promising races and, assuming Terre Du Vent recovers from her nasty fall, they should both go on to better things. Grumeti won just as intended without coming off the Bridle and he should be set up nicely for Cheltenham. As has been the case through his hurdling career he jumped quickly and accurately here and, but for an unlucky slither on landing at Newbury, he would be carrying an unbeaten record forward to the Triumph. He is at present a worthy favourite for that and should have every chance of giving Alan King his next Triumph Hurdle winner, interestingly so should stablemate Balder Succes, extremely impressive at Ascot, who looks to be going that route as well now and Robert Thornton has a tough decision to make. It is possible that Balder Succes’ preference for give in the ground may point him towards Grumeti, although he has not confirmed anything yet.

Fairyhouse

The value in the Triumph Hurdle market may now lie in Ireland with the likes of Darroun and Shadow Catcher but value is not something you could have accused Minsk of being before his run at Fairyhouse on Saturday. Ever since his ultra impressive win in the Irish Cesarewitch Minsk has been talked up as a Triumph Hurdle horse and as such was always around the head of the antepost market for it. As word came out from the Dessie Hughes stable that he had taken to hurdling well more and more people were seemingly backing him in anticipation of a scintillating display on debut, resulting in him being around 6/1 favourite for the Triumph before his run on Saturday. For a horse who had never run over hurdles before this looked a short price and so it proved, for all that he had excuses.

With so much expected one could feel only disappointment after he finished second but for any normal debut run over hurdles this was more than you could hope for, especially in a Grade 2. He jumped fine on the whole, with one early mistake and a slightly slow leap at the last but he clearly just needs experience. It was a decent performance, splitting two talented if not brilliant juveniles, and it was also impressive how, having been held up in rear for most of the race, he made his way to the front just before the last where that slow leap cost him ground and potentially victory. The subsequent discovery of an infection makes the performance all the more meritorious, and it would be difficult to argue that he will not turn out to be the best hurdler in the race. Sadly with this ailment he misses the Triumph Hurdle and we will have to wait a little longer to discover if he can justify the tremendous hype surrounding him.