Supreme Novices Hurdle: Preview and Selection

The disappointment of Simonsig taking up his entry in the Neptune Investment Management Novices’ hurdle instead of the Supreme has taken a while to get over but I am just about there now and I feel it is appropriate to put up another selection for the race.

Looking at the Supreme field it appears to be a weaker group than has often been the case, particularly compared to last season’s vintage renewal, and with the outstanding candidate Simonsig going elsewhere it has been left to another Henderson inmate, Darlan, to take up the mantle as favourite. Darlan has been highly vaunted all his life and after his 27 length victory in his bumper great things were expected. He has generally been impressive but worryingly for favourite backers his worst performance was over the course in December and he is coming into the race off the back of a heavy fall at Newbury. That run looked likely to be his best yet and had he won or been in the first three then his current price may be justified. However, it is plausible that he would have found little coming off the bridle and finished 5th. We are still unsure of what he will find when asked, and despite his tall reputation at home this question mark stands, therefore 9/2 is simply too short to consider taking.  

I also have doubts over the next few in the market, all at single figures. Steps To Freedom looked one of the top bumper horses last season having won the Aintree bumper in good style and has been at or near the top of the betting for the Supreme Novices ever since. Following a productive flat season Jessie Harrington’s charge won his first two hurdle races comfortably and he was sent to Cheltenham in November in order to gain experience of the track. At the time managing to beat Prospect Wells looked high class form, especially with the promising Ericht back in third. Subsequent events have shown this form to be far weaker than first impressions indicated with Prospect Wells being exposed next time in a handicap at Ascot and Ericht showing little to nothing in three subsequent starts. Steps To Freedom was probably better than he showed that day on the back of a hard flat season and two quick hurdle runs but I still doubt whether he will be quite good enough here.

Galileos Choice is next in the betting but I see his price as being mainly based around his flat form, which is admittedly high class, as his hurdle runs haven’t been at a standard where he deserves to be 7/1 for the Supreme. He should have won the Royal Bond were he a genuine contender, instead he lost to a stayer in Sous Les Cieux and then he beat a four mile chaser next time in the manner one would expect. Galileos Choice may improve for faster ground and he is still lightly raced so there should be more to come but his trainer is gearing him up for a full flat season. Dermot Weld has also said he doubts his horse has enough experience for a race of this nature and as a result I am content in avoiding him.

Cinders And Ashes since his horror mistake at Ascot, costing him the race, has jumped well and shown a great deal of class in a couple of comfortable heavy ground victories in the north. This added to his useful bumper form from last season marks him out as a major contender for the race. Saying that, he finished tamely in the Cheltenham Champion Bumper having travelled smoothly and has beaten little of note since defeating Keys, who has let the form down subsequently anyway. Donald McCain’s novice, by Beat Hollow, has solid credentials but it would surprise me were there not a horse with bit more class in there capable of swooping past him up the famous Cheltenham Hill.

The final Horse generally available in single figures at the moment is the Willie Mullins trained Midnight Game. He is a horse with an eye-catching progressive profile and last time out he pulled away nicely from a talented yardstick in Dylan Ross. With further likely improvement likely to come due to the sounder surface, he will likely face at Cheltenham, he looks a leading contender and the 10/1 available in the odd place is reasonable. This son of Montjeu is also a reportedly good home worker which is why it is so unnerving to hear Willie Mullins be so disappointed with his recent efforts, as such he is no longer a definite runner and, even if he was, these negative reports so close to the race would be enough to put anyone off getting involved now or on the day.

Midnight Game is owned by the Gigginstown juggernaut and their retained jockey, Davy Russell, is going to have a tough decision to make as he will also have the option of riding my selection TRIFOLIUM. He is 14/1 generally and if Davy Russell does decide to ride him then he will be significantly shorter. I had my concerns about the Charles Byrnes runner after his last run and at the time it seemed like he may not even run at Cheltenham, but now that seems very much the plan. One of my concerns is that all his best form is on soft/heavy ground and he has seemed to enjoy the test of ploughing through mud over 2 miles. It is to be taken on trust that he will handle the quicker ground at Cheltenham and for him to win he will need to improve for it as well but his trainer is confident he will do. I am willing to believe him now seeing as the Supreme is his target and the way he quickened so impressively last time suggests he should have the necessary speed to compete over the minimum trip on the projected ground.

Trifolium was not fully extended on his most recent start and yet he beat Simenon, well regarded by Willie Mullins, by nine lengths. The rate of improvement he has shown suggests he is one of the few in the Supreme who could still be anything and since the application of cheek pieces he has jumped accurately, a trait that is necessary for this race, which, in all likelihood, will be run at a furious pace. Davy Russell has mentioned a worry that Trifolium has so far pulled quite hard which will have a detrimental effect on his Cheltenham challenge and this was the excuse given for his convincing defeat by So Young. He was far better at Punchestown though and So Young is an extremely high class animal who should be challenging Big Buck’s, hence there was no disgrace in that performance. This was probably Trifolium’s only run against top class opposition and he seemed to fail which must niggle but he was not at his best that day and even so, without Simonsig in the field, there does not appear to be a truly top class horse in opposition. At 14/1 this son of Goldneyev (also the sire of Balder Succes) is value and there is scope to shorten, with the possibility of him becoming the only Gigginstown House Stud representative, even if he isn’t, money will surely come for him given the doubts around many of the others. With so much potential and all the necessary attributes to be competitive in a Supreme Novices’ Hurdle, Trifolium has every chance of kicking off the meeting with an Irish victory.

The Rest

Colour Squadron and Montbazon are closely matched having beaten each other at Newbury this season. Colour Squadron was travelling strongly when falling last time and could have beaten Montbazon again, in which case he is overpriced at the moment. His tendency to hang is a huge concern, though, as he showed when giving away the Tolworth and he possibly prefers softer ground. This would be enough to put me off him and I don’t rate Montbazon any higher. He looks to me the sort who will appreciate further and is yet to excite me over hurdles in the way he did in bumpers. Tetlami, a winner of a Cheltenham bumper, is a solid candidate for Nicky Henderson but the vibes from the yard are that Darlan is their number one. He is probably underestimated, as he is not a flashy sort, but his form at Kempton has taken a knock with Vulcanite’s recent run at Newbury. It was Vulcanite’s first run over obstacles when second to Tetlami at Kempton and he has surely improved since then. Having gained experience he is possibly capable of reversing that form, especially with the progress in his jumping which is now superior to anything else in the field. This is so important at Cheltenham hence at a big price it would be no surprise to see him finish in the frame. Last time at Newbury he was not ridden to best effect and he must be better than he showed there.

Prospect Wells has come in for support recently with him being seen as a value bet considering his proximity to Steps To Freedom at the Paddy Power meeting in November. I take the view that Jessica Harington’s star novice was below his best that day and Prospect Wells was flattered. Since then Paul Nicholls’ charge has been exposed as below top class and his last run, behind Colour Squadron at Sandown, was lamentable. He reportedly had a breathing problem there, which has been fixed, but it is very rare for a horse to run so poorly on his final start before Cheltenham and still win the Supreme.

Triumph Hurdle Update: Baby Mix, Sadler’s Risk, Grumeti and Minsk

Kempton

Racing Plus chase day is traditionally informative for the Triumph Hurdle, offering the last recognised trial for the race. The Adonis Hurdle has a quite astonishing role of honour and in the last two years it has produced the last two Triumph winners, incidentally both making the debuts in this country. It is often the race where trainers target their top Triumph prospects and this was again in evidence on Saturday.

My immediate reaction to the race was to take a dim view of the form but having watched it a few more times I realise that was rash and I was probably influenced by my ill-thought-out backing of Dildar, who’s jumping will have to improve dramatically if he is to be any sort of force over hurdles. I haven’t yet warmed to Baby Mix and following his abject performance at Cheltenham, on Trials Day, I felt I had taken the right stance on him. He was undeniably impressive in the Adonis though, and with the previous antepost favourite for the Triumph (with a few bookmakers at least) in second, well clear of the third, there is more substance to the form than I had originally given credit for.

Baby Mix travelled strongly in second, during Saturday’s race, off the punishing pace set by the admirable Dark And Dangerous and, barring one shuddering error at the fourth flight, jumped noticeably well. A trait I had not associated with Tom George’s charge, he jumped particularly poorly on his last start. Paddy Brennan took it up as they turned into the straight, which was a bold move as he left himself vulnerable to not only a strong stayer but also his own questionable temperament, and his superiority told as he pulled away nicely from Sadler’s Risk. He may have given backers of the second hope as he seemingly idled towards the finish, but this was nothing less than a comfortable victory for the son of Al Namix.

Baby Mix came to everyone’s attention when he stormed clear of the well regarded Hinterland at Cheltenham’s December meeting. However, I’m yet to be convinced that was a good as it looked as Hinterland took a keen hold through the race and would clearly have benefitted from a lead. Baby Mix also showed he was not the most straightforward on the run in with the awkward way he carried himself, especially his tail. These signs were a precursor to his temperamental run at the same course in January. He fought for his head with Paddy Brennan for most of the race and found nothing of the bridle as a result. Of most concern, however, was his attempt to run out as they straightened up for home. Tom George has said he has ironed out these problems and they did not seem to affect him on Saturday but they will always be in the back of one’s mind when considering Baby Mix for the Triumph. While his defeat of Sadler’s Risk looks strong and on that basis is rightly sitting at the top of the antepost market, with the likely crowds and atmosphere at the Festival on Gold Cup day these issues may resurface and that would be enough to put me off him.

The Triumph is over one furlong further than the Adonis and if Baby Mix displays his least redeeming features in that then Sadler’s Risk looks capable of reversing the form and threatening the other major contenders in March. This son of Sadler’s Wells was useful on the flat and beat the high class Sea Moon in his maiden. He showed his toughness on the level which is important when making the transition to hurdles and on his first start for Hobbs, also at Kempton, he went off at even money and won with considerable ease. Sadler’s Risk won as impressively as one could have hoped for and he was made antepost favourite for the Triumph after the race. Many expressed concerns that he had beaten little but the Philip Hobbs stable rate him highly and were expecting him to win hence he was still sent off another well backed favourite for the Adonis. He was keen early in the race but as the pace quickened he was always going best behind Baby Mix. Unfortunately for connections he just couldn’t match the jumping or pace of the winner for all that he stayed on promisingly at the finish. He may have been flattered by the proximity to the winner but Sadler’s Risk does look a solid proposition for the Triumph with the necessary stamina and it would be remiss of me to put anyone off having a go each way but I fear he may just lack the class of some including Saturday’s winners Baby Mix and Grumeti.

It was thought that Grumeti would take in the Adonis as his last prep race for the festival but connections were eager for him not to have a hard race so close to the Triumph so they switched to the Dovecote Hurdle which, in comparison, looked easy pickings. The late withdrawal of principal rival Keys meant his only significant dangers were two horses yet to run over hurdles Terre Du Vent and Dodging Bullets. Both ran highly promising races and, assuming Terre Du Vent recovers from her nasty fall, they should both go on to better things. Grumeti won just as intended without coming off the Bridle and he should be set up nicely for Cheltenham. As has been the case through his hurdling career he jumped quickly and accurately here and, but for an unlucky slither on landing at Newbury, he would be carrying an unbeaten record forward to the Triumph. He is at present a worthy favourite for that and should have every chance of giving Alan King his next Triumph Hurdle winner, interestingly so should stablemate Balder Succes, extremely impressive at Ascot, who looks to be going that route as well now and Robert Thornton has a tough decision to make. It is possible that Balder Succes’ preference for give in the ground may point him towards Grumeti, although he has not confirmed anything yet.

Fairyhouse

The value in the Triumph Hurdle market may now lie in Ireland with the likes of Darroun and Shadow Catcher but value is not something you could have accused Minsk of being before his run at Fairyhouse on Saturday. Ever since his ultra impressive win in the Irish Cesarewitch Minsk has been talked up as a Triumph Hurdle horse and as such was always around the head of the antepost market for it. As word came out from the Dessie Hughes stable that he had taken to hurdling well more and more people were seemingly backing him in anticipation of a scintillating display on debut, resulting in him being around 6/1 favourite for the Triumph before his run on Saturday. For a horse who had never run over hurdles before this looked a short price and so it proved, for all that he had excuses.

With so much expected one could feel only disappointment after he finished second but for any normal debut run over hurdles this was more than you could hope for, especially in a Grade 2. He jumped fine on the whole, with one early mistake and a slightly slow leap at the last but he clearly just needs experience. It was a decent performance, splitting two talented if not brilliant juveniles, and it was also impressive how, having been held up in rear for most of the race, he made his way to the front just before the last where that slow leap cost him ground and potentially victory. The subsequent discovery of an infection makes the performance all the more meritorious, and it would be difficult to argue that he will not turn out to be the best hurdler in the race. Sadly with this ailment he misses the Triumph Hurdle and we will have to wait a little longer to discover if he can justify the tremendous hype surrounding him.

Weekend Review - Triumph Hurdle Trials

This weekend saw a number of different Triumph Hurdle hopefuls testing their credentials. While there were some notable disappointments, Paul Nicholls, Alan King and Willie Mullins will be extremely satisfied with their horses and will look to March full of confidence.

On Cheltenham’s ‘Trials Day’, Grumeti and Pearl Swan laid down their festival markers in the JCB Triumph Hurdle Trial. In a desperate finish Pearl Swan came out on top by a short head but after a lengthy stewards’ enquiry the result was amended, the placings were reversed and Grumeti was given the race.  This was the right decision as there had been discernible interference on the run-in and Ruby Walsh was given a controversial three day ban for careless riding. Before the race he was largely unconsidered for the Triumph Hurdle, available at 33/1 with Skybet for example, yet afterwards many felt that Pearl Swan was the horse who ran the best trial and with him being at a best price of 10/1 (as short as 5/1 with one firm) the layers are not taking any chances with him.

Pearl Swan at Taunton

Pearl Swan had first come to the attention of jump racing followers after an authoritative display on his debut for Paul Nicholls at Taunton, just 9 days before his run at Cheltenham on Saturday. He had been a fair flat performer for John Hammond in France and, with his new connections, was sent off a relatively well backed 3/1 second favourite. At Taunton he jumped well, on the whole, and moved through the race like a good horse before quickening powerfully to beat the consistent Ifyouletmefinish four lengths. He evidently had plenty in hand that day and Nicholls wanted to see whether he had a Triumph or Fred Winter horse on his hands by running him on Saturday. Sitting well off the pace throughout, Ruby Walsh, on Pearl Swan, made his move after two out and then at the last he was upsides the leaders before battling with Grumeti all the way up the Cheltenham hill. This run proved to his trainer that he is a Triumph Hurdle horse and he will now head straight for that race without another run. Paul Nicholls is convinced he can improve this son of Gentlewave with his jumping the priority, which looked deliberate at times. He may well find significant improvement in Pearl Swan, in which case he would be a formidable opponent come March but I am still keener on the horse who was awarded the Triumph Hurdle trial, Grumeti.

Grumeti was a useful on the flat for Michael Bell and was seen as a good jumping prospect by his current connections. At the Newmarket sales current connections went to £100,000 to buy this son of Sakhee and on the face of it, this looks good business.

Much like Pearl Swan, Grumeti won his hurdling debut at Taunton. He was even more impressive, pulling fourteen lengths clear of, another formerly talented flat horse and subsequent clear-cut handicap hurdle winner, Ted Spread. In third, a further length back, was Ifyouletmefinish who Pearl Swan had only beaten by six lengths. Grumeti jumped smoothly at Taunton and did much the same at Newbury on his next start where he was all set to demolish his field on the bridle. Unfortunately, at the second last he stumbled on landing and came down. This scuppered, his trainer, Alan King's plan to win comfortably at Newbury before a tilt at the Adonis Hurdle at Kempton. With a worry over the weather turning and a cold snap forcing Grumeti to head straight to festival, after a fall, it was decided a quick run back at Cheltenham was the best course of action. For me, his performance in the trial enhanced his claims for the Triumph Hurdle itself. This run was almost certainly too soon after his fall at Newbury and he started the race like he had fallen recently, jumping slowly at the first few flights. He failed to show the burst of acceleration he displayed at Taunton as a result of him probably not having enough time to recover from his last run. Grumeti was also hindered by the slightly sticky, tacky ground and by the fact that he chased the pace from an early stage unlike his adversary Pearl Swan who had been dropped out. This combined with the interference suffered all the way up the run-in makes his victory all the more meritorious and I am convinced there is significantly more to come.

Alan King has stated that his Triumph hopeful will likely go to the Adonis next for one last bit of crucial experience before the big one. Unless another Zarkandar appears I fully expect him to win that as well as the juvenile hurdlers likely to turn up there have not impressed me to the same extent as Grumeti, and that includes current antepost favourite for the Triumph Saddlers Risk. At this stage Grumeti is right at the top of my Triumph Hurdle list with six weeks still to go and is certainly one to consider antepost.

In third behind Pearl Swan and Grumeti was Hollow Tree who ran his usual good race. He seems to lack the necessary ability for the Triumph Hurdle even though he won the Grade 1 Finale at Chepstow. That is a race that tends to have little bearing on the Triumph itself and it seems clear that Hollow Tree is at his best on soft ground. He may have chance off a big weight in the Fred Winter but I would be quite happy to leave him out of any Triumph Hurdle calculations. Further down the field at Cheltenham was the major disappointment of the race, Baby Mix. The Tom George trained grey finished last of six but he was sent off a 7/4 joint-favourite and was clearly expected to do far better. On his first start for Tom George, also at Cheltenham, Baby Mix ran out an impressive seven length winner and defeated the highly regarded, heavily odds on, Hinterland in the process. On that occasion he travelled strongly and jumped noticeably well before pulling away from Nicholls’ charge. More of the same was expected this weekend but while he travelled strongly for much of the way Baby Mix’s jumping failed to stand up to the test and he made a number of errors. In terms of his Triumph prospects I’m not willing to forgive Baby Mix this run. I’m not convinced his defeat of Hinterland was all that it looked at the time. Hinterland had to force the pace from the front, was keen throughout and, most importantly, was giving the Al Namix Gelding 7lbs. Also, Baby Mix appeared to have a strange head carriage and looked like he was thinking about it on the run-in. He does not look the most straightforward and I cannot envisage circumstances where I would back him for the Triumph.

One further negative for Baby Mix was the run of Hinterland in the handicap hurdle on the same card as the Triumph trial. Hinterland was still in the mix for the Triumph Hurdle going into his run on Saturday and as a result was a well backed favourite. He could only manage third under an interesting ride from Ruby Walsh. While it was not bad run by any means, it looked more of a trial for the Fred Winter than for the Triumph especially as Paul Nicholls has at least two other strong candidates for the race.

Over in Ireland there was hugely eye-catching Triumph Hurdle trial run by the Willie Mullins trained Darroun. He was an expensive purchase for connections at the July Arqana sales in France, costing the princely sum of €140,000. Trained by Alain de Royer-Dupre on the level he managed to win once from three starts and was seen as the perfect type for juvenile hurdling.

It was inexperience that cost him first time up over hurdles at Punchestown where he finished a close second to Shadow Catcher. At Leopardstown on Saturday better was expected and he was sent out in front by Paul Townend, often a sign of confidence behind a Mullins novice hurdler. This grey son of Dalakhani jumped impeccably and he held off the favourite, Hisaabaat, by one and a quarter lengths. Hisaabaat had previously finished second to two Irish hopes for the Triumph, Sportsmaster and, Darroun’s stablemate, Ut De Sivola. Dermot Weld’s juvenile is a good yardstick in these Irish events and he looked the winner approaching the last as he was still on the bridle, but Willie Mullin’s charge outbattled him and in the end the margin of victory failed to do his superiority justice. It is worth noting that rounding the home turn Darroun appeared to lose his action and his jockey had to stop riding for a few strides giving significant ground to the second and third in the process. He is a strapping gelding and still showed signs of greenness at Leopardstown but in overcoming this and his loss of action, Darroun showed that is a talented horse with tremendous scope for improvement.

As a Triumph Hurdle prospect, Darroun could not have come from a better source with the Aga Khan Studs producing recent winners Zaynar and Zarkandar. He looks to be improving fast and with further progression expected on the quicker festival ground he is surely value at 20/1. There is always the problem with Willie Mullins trained horses that he has another prospect for the same race and this is the case here as he trains Ut De Sivola who is appreciably shorter in the market. He beat Hisaabaat further than Darroun last time but Hisaabaat made a dreadful mistake at the last when travelling strongly and there is every chance he was flattered. I was not overly impressed by this son of Robins Des Champs and I would be confident that in six weeks time Darroun will be Mullins’ first string for the Triumph. This being the case he will be much shorter than the 20/1 available at this stage and I suggest taking that price for the Triumph now. Of course, the last two years have shown there is always the possibility that the best juvenile has yet to be unleashed over hurdles; hence backing Darroun each way is advisable.