A Supreme Novice

Stats and trends are an indication of what has happened, not necessarily what will happen. I try not to let them dominate my thinking when it comes to Cheltenham but naturally, some will seep into the consciousness and have an unintended, though not unhelpful, influence on one’s opinions. Writing off a horse’s chances because it has run in a race which has failed to produce the winner of a certain Festival contest, for example, is too arbitrary yet I generally like a Supreme Novices’ Hurdle candidate to fit a certain profile. Knowing what it takes to win the race, the test it can provide and therefore what sort of horse is likely to flourish under those conditions is invaluable to success.

Ideally a Supreme candidate would have looked impressive in bumpers and or shown strong form in that sphere. Horses to have had a hurdling background in France also make significant appeal. That may appear vague and does not narrow down the field particularly but the key point is I would almost invariably be negative towards those coming off the flat. Not every Supreme is the same however, not every field is as strong, and while flat recruits usually struggle to win me over some do and in Saturday’s Dovecote Hurdle, Irving did.

It was a far from stellar line-up and First Mohican, seen as the leading danger to Irving largely based on his flat form, was weak in the market beforehand. During the race he made mistakes at his obstacles and was beaten relatively early, looking awkward and reluctant with his ungainly head carriage once again in evidence, as it was on hurdling debut at Doncaster. The rest of the field were unlikely to pose a serious threat to Paul Nicholls’ charge based on what had gone before this season, but Irving still despatched his rivals with a contemptuous ease that has quite rightly set him atop the betting for the Festival’s opening contest.

Ridden more prominently than at Ascot in December, Nick Schofield (aboard Irving for the fourth time) was content to track the leader, Amore Alto and the free-going Germany Calling. With a smooth passage he travelled sweetly throughout, seemingly giving his rider a simple job as he jumped soundly in the main and moved from in contention to in control without the need for coercion. As this six-year-old has gained his experience it is noticeable how quickly he gets away from his hurdles (this is especially evident on Channel 4’s coverage, with the fourth last flight providing the best example, Racing UK only has a head-on view here). This element of his armoury could set him apart as even the mistakes he has made have yet to halt his momentum; he is nimble and clever while he can pull out prodigious jump if he meets a hurdle wrong as he did over the last at Kempton. That was the only semblance of a scare, he did kick the top out of the second last having tanked into it but Schofield was reluctant to let him fly it in case he hit the front too soon. Whereas there would be concerns about some in the Supreme jumping at high speed Irving isn’t one of them.

A strong pace on faster ground at Cheltenham could really suit Irving, a picture of him travelling in the slipstream of the leader on the run to the last (perhaps Vautour) is easy to imagine, and his turn of foot combined with the acceleration away from the final flight may then prove the difference.

As hinted at above the form of Saturday’s Dovecote hurdle can be questioned given the lack of strength in depth but this comprehensive thrashing of Amore Alato on ground that, according to connections, inconvenienced Irving should not be underestimated. Nick Williams’ gelding is by no means a Supreme contender, he is not, nor is he ever likely to be a multiple Grade 1 winner à la The Tullow Tank who was so confidently seen off by Vautour. He is a solid, consistent novice hurdler with a high level of ability. Both his wins this season, at Wincanton and particularly Kempton, have worked out well. The ultra-impressive Doncaster winner, Vaniteux was among the vanquished on Boxing Day. His run prior to Saturday was in a heavy ground handicap at Cheltenham where he was far from disgraced, finishing third behind the obscenely well handicapped Lac Fontana and Totalize who is very useful in the conditions. Crucially, he was taken on for the lead at Cheltenham, unlike at Wincanton or Kempton, including on Saturday where the son of Winged Love was allowed to dictate the pace with no competition up front, he was even handed five lengths at the start. Coupled with a well-executed ride, Amore Alato was a difficult rival to master, as the rest of the seven strong field showed, yet Irving swept by him unflustered.

It is also worth mentioning the boost given to his Kennell Gate Novices’ Hurdle form at Ascot by the third that day, Splash Of Ginge in the Betfair Hurdle. Success there came off a lowly mark and he was ridden (and ridden smartly) by a seven pound claimer but even then it is hard to believe he ran to the same level behind Irving. He jumped poorly and out to his left during the first half of the Ascot Grade 2 therefore this franking is not quite as spectacular as it may appear, nevertheless it provides some much needed support to a shaky looking piece of form following the comprehensive blowout of the likely second (before coming to grief) in the rearranged Tolworth. Prince Siegfried’s fall may have left its mark, however, and as a consequence that run is easy to ignore, I certainly wouldn’t use him as a stick to beat Irving with.

Many will have been more excited by Irving previously than I was and consequently availed themselves of some attractive antepost prices. The prospect of taking the 3/1 currently available is therefore soured somewhat but I am now as excited as anybody, outside of the connections, by this rapid bay gelding and would rather be with him than Vautour at the same price.

---------------------------------------------------

The notion that Un Ace could be horse for the Cheltenham Festival was put forward right at the start of the season by his trainer Kim Bailey. He was for sale at the time and that is essentially how he was advertised. In an attempt to avoid ground soft or worse Un Ace was not sighted until last week at Doncaster, thus making the prospect of a visit to Prestbury Park rather remote. Fortunately for those who kept the faith with this son of Voix Du Nord their patience was rewarded with an emphatic display at the Town Moor course. Without the peck on landing at the third last, which briefly appeared to end his chances, he may not even have come off the bridle in his defeat of Tom George’s well-regarded prospect, Stellar Notion.

According to connections he had earned his place at National Hunt racing’s top table and who can blame them. The Supreme has been muted as the most likely option and the experience gained there should bring him on considerably. To compete in such a race on just your second start is an extremely tall order and quotes of around 66/1 say it all. He is not without considerable potential though and, hopefully, with the travails of the Festival safely under his belt he may be one to consider seriously during the concluding weeks of the season.

Tuesday, February 18, 2014

Supreme Novices Update: Wilde Blue Yonder

Wilde Blue Yonder began his career in unexpectedly good style when narrowly failing to topple the hotly fancied Purple Bay (who would later finish fifth in the Champion Bumper) at Doncaster. A tilt at the Aintree Bumper was far from unreasonable, yet ultimately unsuccessful. He was keen early and moved through the race comfortably before being outpaced when the leading protagonists set sail for home. He stuck on well for a period until his enthusiastic nature caught up with him, finishing eleventh of nineteen. At this early stage in his career it was an eminently forgivable run.

Such a stern test did him no harm as he returned this season to outclass his opposition in a Uttoxeter bumper in early November. He then made a winning start over hurdles at Newbury in a race that, to a degree, has worked out well. Seedling stayed on into second and he has underperformed since in desperate conditions but Tiqris, whom Wilde Blue Yonder saw off nicely after a protracted battle, has won impressively since and finished second in a Listed race. Seven lengths behind the winner in fourth was the heavily punted favourite, Sign Of A Victory who bolted up in a jumpers bumper at Kempton on his next start while back in fifth, Fascino Rustico was a likely winner at Wincanton on Saturday until coming to grief, having narrowly missed out in a traditionally strong novice hurdle at Kempton on Boxing Day.

Paul Nicholls’ charge was far too keen behind Wild Blue Yonder hence his superiority over him was exaggerated and despite dossing in front he failed to beat Tiqris with the same level of ease as Josses Hill, who went onto to shape best of all when narrowly outstayed in the Tolworth. Josses Hill is a raw chaser in the making and despite both meeting Tiqris on hurdling debut it was the Winged Love gelding who was most inconvenienced by the lack of experience. Wilde Blue Yonder was generally quicker over his hurdles despite the prescient error at the final obstacle, where he almost failed to take off entirely. Josses Hill showed in the Tolworth how quickly novices can improve and Wilde Blue Yonder will need develop rapidly if he is to best Nicky Henderson's imposing prospect at Cheltenham.

A return to Newbury a month later saw him face a field of five including another Seven Barrows inmate, Stand To Reason. Largely overrated on the back of a comfortable success in lowly company at Wincanton, Stand To Reason (Wilde Blue Yonder’s only meaningful rival) was ridden with restraint by Tony McCoy, as he attempted to settle alongside. The gallop was steady until Wilde Blue Yonder quickened off the final bend applying pressure to the former flat performer. That seemed to tell as he met the third last all wrong with McCoy fortunate to maintain his partnership. Nicky Henderson’s six-year-old looked beaten.

Robert Thornton’s mount generally hurdled with fluency through the first three-quarters of the race, barring one lazy error at the fourth, yet once more as the race moved towards its climax and each jump gained greater significance his technique unravelled. At the second last this cavalier son of Oscar threw himself at the flight, giving little thought to self-preservation, and an opportunity was suddenly presented to his pursuer as Robert Thornton manfully held on.

McCoy was motionless atop Stand To Reason as they headed away from the penultimate flight but, in spite of his blunder, Wild Blue Yonder was far from beaten and regained the lead under strong pressure from his rider. Having seemingly travelled well up the straight, Stand To Reason was urged to match his gutsy rival but despite the Champion Jockey not throwing everything at his mount there appeared to be little left to give as he failed to assert at the last.

I felt Alan King’s gelding was about to go clear, his pursuer unable to cope with the testing conditions and a superior novice. That is debatable, though Wilde Blue Yonder’s clumsiness is not. Having guessed at the previous hurdle he just managed to pick his legs up high enough to avoid catastrophe, albeit narrowly. At the last he was not so lucky as he found himself in too close after a final unnecessary stride, a mistake not dissimilar to that made a month earlier from which he survived. It was a heavy, potentially confidence knocking fall.

Without the mental lapses Wilde Blue Yonder probably would have come out on top in December, though only after a hard fought tussle with his well-regarded opponent and a stretch of the imagination was needed to place him into the Supreme reckoning, even for place purposes. Considering the problems in the King camp, however, that run could be looked upon more favourably than the performance suggests. It was still hard not to be concerned by the calamitous nature of his displays though and, with his yard now through the worst of its problems, the threat of a late tumble had to be in the back of one’s mind on Saturday even if Wilde Blue Yonder had a form edge at Ascot.

Another small field awaited at the east Berkshire venue, this time he was faced with three meaningful rivals, most notably the well backed favourite and eventual winner, Mountain King. Charlie Longsdon’s Wadswick Court made the running and he set a slow pace early on, forcing much of the field to pull. Wilde Blue Yonder actually settled relatively well in rear and with minimal pressure on his jumping, he was fluent.

The race begun in earnest as Mountain King faltered at the fourth from home, in the process losing considerable ground. In order to recover, Richard Johnson woke him up, moving from last to first in striking fashion on the run to the home turn. This injection of pace caught Wilde Blue Yonder marginally flat footed as he had to be shaken up to maintain position and then join those quickening clear. The response was swift and telling, eye-catchingly making his way up the inside into the lead at the second last. Under pressure, but by no means all out, he then drew three lengths clear as earlier exertions appeared to tell for the rest apart from the pace-setter who plugged on admirably. The race looked in safe keeping, only the last flight was between Wilde Blue Yonder and an impressive victory, finally a performance worthy of a Supreme place.

Predictably, the last proved too big an obstacle for this exasperating five-year-old as once again he guessed at the flight, sprawled on landing and gave Robert Thornton another moment to forget. This mistake was reminiscent of that made at Newbury’s penultimate hurdle in December, the horse took off more in hope than expectation. He needs to have his mind made up for him, with the race at your mercy Wilde Blue Yonder is not one who can be left to sort himself out and ‘pop’ an obstacle. Given past indiscretions the jockey must shoulder some blame. By now there should have been some inkling that such an event was possible, sitting still once more was insufficient. With the emergence of First Mohican, Wayne Hutchinson may be in the saddle at Cheltenham, as Robert Thornton switches to the classy flat performer, and that can only be a plus.

Even with the services of Hutchinson, and hopefully a new plan of action, it is difficult to justify backing Wilde Blue Yonder for the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle. The risk is too great, if he is unable to cope with the pressure of small field contests several notches below the level of the Supreme how can he be trusted to keep his race intact at the last in March. Eventually this weakness is bound to be remedied and was it to vanish at Cheltenham he could prove dangerous to those solid propositions ahead of him in the market though a leap of faith is still needed.

Saturday was going to be a clear career best for Wilde Blue Yonder but I am not convinced the form will turn out to be strong and a four or five length defeat of Wadswick Court would still leave significant room for improvement if he is to become a Festival player.

Monday, February 10, 2014

Supreme Novices Update: Deloitte Novice Hurdle – Vautour and The Tullow Tank

At the awkward distance of two-and-a-quarter miles, the Deloitte Novice Hurdle is the natural intermediary between Cheltenham’s Supreme and Neptune novice contests. Participants in a quandary about the ideal destination for their runners can have their minds made up by how the horse shapes, does speed or stamina take precedence?

This year’s renewal appears to have split two of the Supreme’s main protagonists as defeat for antepost favourite (before the race) has swayed The Tullow Tank’s connections in favour of a tilt at the longer race and success for Willie Mullins’ Vautour has secured his place in the Festival curtain raiser.

Ruby Walsh, back on board Vautour having been elsewhere for his narrow victory at Punchestown, surmised that nothing in the Deloitte was willing to set the pace. A void was present and he filled it, in exemplary style. Connections had already come to the conclusion that Vautour was a strong galloper, thus given this opportunity Walsh was more than willing to take it.

On this occasion, able to avoid the inconvenience caused by a pacesetter akin to that at Punchestown, Vautour set out at a relatively steady pace, before gradually increasing it from ten furlongs out. All bar the favourite (The Tullow Tank) were then seen off as Ruby Walsh asked his mount to quicken decisively from the second last. Both Vautour’s French starts were over this extended trip and he saw it out strongly. The Tullow Tank threw down his challenge which, given his history of finding off the bridle, looked threatening as he closed the gap to three lengths in the home straight but that was as close as he could manage with Vautour showing no signs of tiring.

Such an immaculate ride from Ruby Walsh may lead some to question whether Vautour is as superior to The Tullow Tank as this result suggests. The Robin Des Champs gelding certainly made the most of his unchallenged lead yet he could not have executed these tactics and won so impressively without exhibiting the attributes of a top class novice hurdler. Vautour proved he stayed further than two miles, often necessary to win a hard fought, soundly run Supreme. He displayed tremendous speed to quicken away from this field and that asset found the second, a dual Grade 1 winner over two miles, wanting.

Willie Mullins believes in order to have success over two miles at Cheltenham slick jumping is of paramount importance. This was in evidence on Sunday and based on this performance his jumping should be of huge benefit at Cheltenham. Vautour was exceptional over his hurdles on Sunday, meeting each flight, bar one (the fourth last), on a perfect stride. Gaining ground throughout, he put pressure on his rivals and gave himself an easy time as he used the minimum effort to maximum effect. Just a five-year-old, Vautour has scope to progress between now and March while his reputation suggests he could be even better than he looked on Sunday. He has all the necessary qualities to win a Supreme and deserves to head the betting. Vautour does make the most convincing case of any novice targeting the race but I would not suggest it was convincing enough to take the 4/1 generally available at this stage.

No one could deny he was given an easy lead and the tempo of the race did not suit his chief danger The Tullow Tank who was dropped in. Despite winning those two Grade 1s his speed was not his forte, when the emphasis was placed on stamina he ground it out. Such a relentless style is made for a Cheltenham contest but in order to stay within striking distance of the speedier types the jumping must be quick and accurate. Losing ground and momentum is terminal against the best performers over two miles and this looks to have cost Philip Fenton’s ‘Tank’ at Leopardstown.

Jumping had never been the reason for The Tullow Tank’s success, it had never been electric, but it hadn’t held him back this season either until the Deloitte. He is seen in the long term as an exciting prospect over fences (not unlike Vautour in fairness) and early on his jumping was very much in the mould of an embryonic chaser. He somewhat skied the first, got in tight at the third, and then was unable to match the leader at the next two as Vautour extended his lead. The fourth last was his biggest mistake of the race as he hit the flight and landed on all fours. In response to that he jumped too high at the third last and was particularly slow away from it.

Danny Mullins was left further back than ideal on this strapping son of Oscar but he didn’t panic. The situation was graver at the penultimate obstacle where The Tullow Tank left his hind legs in the hurdle just as Ruby Walsh asked his mount for the telling injection of pace. He was at his best over the last once asked for everything by his rider. The damage had been done though, finally a Willie Mullins trained novice was not for catching.

Philip Fenton suggested afterwards that his charge may not have been at his absolute best. That is possible though it was not a run to be dejected over and were his jumping to sharpen up off the likely stronger pace in the Supreme there would be reason to hope for a reversal of form. I would still aim him at the two mile event as I suspect Faugheen will be even harder to overturn than Vautour and the shorter race often suits stayers, especially those with multiple Grade 1 wins over the trip. Understandably, connections seem to be leaning towards the other option over two-miles-and-five-furlongs. They will be hoping for further improvement for another step up in trip (he had only raced over two miles prior to Sunday) and given the hurdling issues exposed at Leopardstown, rather than school him intensely and hope for greater fluency, the Neptune could prove more suitable as he will be allowed more time in the air over his obstacles. Whichever route connections choose The Tullow Tank will be a leading place contender, whether he quite has that extra spark to win is doubtful.

__________

Exeter’s listed novices’ hurdle on Sunday often has a bearing on the Supreme. It is ideally placed for certain horses to have their final prep run before the main event. Incessant rain naturally gave the ground an exhausting quality, contributing to the relatively poor field, but the going is usually testing on this day and the race was a disappointingly drab affair. The winner Vibrato Valtat was an almost effortless winner from Tiqris, who already had solid novice hurdle form, and they both have enviable futures. However, neither of them or any of the five that took part are entered in the Supreme and one can only hope that next year the Plymouth Novices’ Hurdle can regain its place as a key Supreme trial.