Supreme Novices Update: Douvan

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Supreme Novices’ Hurdle Prediction: 1-2-3

Despite the incessant reading, listening, tweeting and thinking about Cheltenham, it is somewhat hard to believe that the Festival has all but arrived. Throughout the season I have tried to set out my views on the key trials for the Supreme, detailing how the possible contenders have shaped and hopefully pointing out reasons for and against supporting each horse in advance of the big race next week. It should have become clear who I am keenest on but just in case, now seems the right time to definitively predict the result. Here are the three I fancy to finish first, second and third:

3^rd – Champagne Fever

With the strongest Irish form available it might seem foolish to leave Jezki out of the top three, especially when he has already beaten the third place selection in the Royal Bond Novice Hurdle. Despite doing all that has been asked of him this season, there are reasons to think Jezki will not achieve at Cheltenham what many people are expecting. His emphatic victory at Leopardstown last time forced many to sit up and take notice of this son of Milan but the form has since been let down by Waaheb who during that race at Leopardstown made a horrendous blunder thereby exaggerating the winning distance. There are still concerns about Jezki’s jumping, despite showing significant improvement travelling left-handed, and the good ground he apparently needs to be seen at his best is not materialising. He may, on the face of it, standout as a solid each-way play, but despite preferring to see Jezki’s last run at Cheltenham as largely irrelevant, the way he faded up the hill behind Champagne Fever continues to niggle. The received wisdom is that Willie Mullins’ gangly grey lacks the speed for two miles and the late wavering over his target, between this and the three mile Albert Bartlett, can only be a negative. However, he managed to hold off much ‘faster’ rivals in the Champion Bumper when there were similar concerns and the recent rain will help, he could prove just as hard to pass at Cheltenham over hurdles. I suspect he will lack the speed to win this race but he still looks capable of finishing in the frame. There will likely come a point in the race where he looks sure to be swamped, yet his jumping is good and bold enough to keep him in front for a long way, while his class should help him see off a number of overrated rivals. More than three horses could easily pass Champagne Fever, but such is his abundant stamina, I can see the speedier contenders trying to compete with My Tent Or Yours’ turn of foot and failing, finishing tired, while the stoutly bred son of Stowaway flies up the hill, snatching a place.

2^nd – My Tent Or Yours

Recent defeats for heavily backed, short priced favourites in the Supreme should not be a reason to oppose My Tent Or Yours. He was sensationally impressive in the Betfair Hurdle at Newbury, with three progressive young handicappers making the frame. Nothing in behind can be used to hold the form down, so in a misguided attempt to crab the performance, a slow pace and a beneficially prominent ride have been given as reasons to knock My Tent Or Yours. If anything, I expect a faster pace would have seen Nicky Henderson’s charge appear even more imperious, given his tendency to pull hard. Some have even questioned what My Tent Or Yours finds off the bridle since his Newbury rout. Well from what I could see about ten lengths, but that is debatable, what isn’t debatable is the amount he found to beat subsequent Grade 1 winning hurdler Taquin Du Seuil on hurdling debut, having jumped atrociously. That is no longer an issue with the Desert Prince gelding; his hurdling was electric in the twenty one runner Betfair Hurdle. He is developing rapidly and it would have been no surprise to see My Tent Or Yours run in the Champion Hurdle. In my opinion, this speedster is nearly bombproof as favourite and he has never struck me as being a particularly short price. I will be shocked if, barring injury, incident or illness, My Tent Or Yours does not finish in the first two on Tuesday. Consequently, it might be more sensible to select him as my winner given that I can easily envisage him taking the Festival curtain raiser in a similar fashion to the Betfair Hurdle, but there is a chance another is better and that is a chance I am willing to take.

1^st – Un Atout

The only horse in the field that I can imagine matching or bettering My Tent Or Yours is Un Atout. There was barely a more impressive, jaw-dropping bumper performance during the 2011/2012 season and his hurdling debut this time around was eagerly anticipated. Yet again he mastered his rivals with little effort, dominating the race from the front. The level of opposition he faced at Navan is questionable and the two horses that could have given a level to the form have been deprived the chance of boosting it since; with the fourth, Some Article, being carried out next time, and the second, Fickle Fortune, subsequently suffering a season ending injury. Fickle Fortune herself was an extremely pacey horse in bumpers, thus giving encouragement to those who felt Un Atout would have the speed for grade 1 races over two miles. This was despite the immediate post race comments from his trainer suggesting he is a prospective staying chaser. His jumping on debut was occasionally big, possibly giving rise to those comments, but he was accurate and fast on his next start and Davy Russell has been effusive with praise for his jumping since. Un Atout destroyed his field here, at Naas, on the bridle and he became the serious Supreme contender he is now with Willie Mullins making it clear afterwards that he was content to keep this imposing son of Robin Des Champs at two miles. This was another piece of form potentially lacking strength, with the unreliable Rory O’Moore finishing nineteen lengths away in second. The third though, Art Of Logistics, has won since at Fairyhouse, defeating the aforementioned, and still highly regarded, Waaheb, in the process. The ground at Naas was very deep and Art Of Logistics may not have handled it but the form boost he delivered at least gives substance to Un Atout’s unparalleled style.

He did miss his next intended engagement in the Deloitte due to a sub standard piece of work and even his most ardent fans have to acknowledge his lack of experience; the pace of the race, the ground, the atmosphere and the crowd at Prestbury Park will all be new to him. But he has shown no sign of temperament in his three runs so far, he is a relaxed individual and I would be confident that he will take everything in his powerful stride. The faster pace and the potential emphasis on stamina created by the likes of his stablemate Champagne Fever should suit, while there is still scope for him to improve on the quicker surface at Cheltenham. The Festival will almost certainly start on soft but it will be far removed from the deep, heavy ground Un Atout has faced runs over hurdles up to now.

This will be a truly hot renewal of the Supreme but at Willie Mullins' Closutton base Un Atout is housed in an elite group of three along with Sir Des Champs and Hurricane Fly, and I fancy he can match his illustrious neighbours' success at the Cheltenham Festival in this, the most anticipated race of the year.

1. Un Atout
2. My Tent Or Yours
3. Champagne Fever

Supreme Novices Update: River Maigue (Ascot)

Cheltenian has a number of entries this week and his return to action after a huge absence is imminent. If he can come through whichever test he takes in the coming days he could have a tilt at the Supreme and his current odds of 40/1 may appear generous. He was an extremely impressive winner of a memorable, at least it was for me, Champion Bumper but sadly injury has intervened since. It must be beyond frustrating for connections, with their patience surely tested, hopefully they can be rewarded with a return to form and a full season with him from next autumn.

Another memorable bumper personally, came this weekend last year on the Betfair Ascot Chase card. That day Royal Guardsman flew home, winning emphatically under Brendan Powell Jnr, his position as leading British hope in Cheltenham’s Champion Bumper cemented. It has been downhill for him since then however and, having switched from Colin Tizzard to his owner’s yard, this season has been largely disappointing with three relatively tame efforts over hurdles. Finishing third in Royal Guardsman’s Ascot bumper was the former point-to-point winner River Maigue who just failed to see the race out having been keen and possibly lacking experience. Unlike Royal Guardsman his career has been on the up since that race, this season shaping into a serious contender for the Supreme Novices' Hurdle.

Following his debut over hurdles in November, when he needed the run and the experience, River Miague went to Kempton on Boxing Day where he sauntered to victory, thrashing Champion Bumper runner up and fellow Supreme contender New Year’s Eve. There have been doubts over the form but the ease in which he won and the bullish reports from connections subsequently sent him near to the head of the Supreme Novices' ante-post market. He was recently tipped by Pricewise of the Racing Post, thereby solidifying his market position, and then on Saturday he was set the difficult task of giving exciting juvenile hurdler Far West 9lb, thanks to the weight-for-age allowance.

The race itself quickly turned into a farce as the leader, Boss In Boots, all but ran out leaving Far West in front and a dawdle of a gallop, to put it mildly. Jumping from both major protagonists was sound, Far West was particularly athletic when he needed to be four out and two out, but it wasn’t fluid with neither relishing the hurdles off such a slow pace. The race culminated in a three furlong sprint which Far West managed to win having been ideally placed in front by Ruby Walsh. Far West has been no stranger to making the running since coming over from France but he has been doing it in very testing conditions, whereas the ground had dried up somewhat on Saturday leaving the ground quicker he had ever faced, albeit still officially soft. Paul Nicholls’ charge had looked a strong stayer, often what you need in a Triumph Hurdle, but there were concerns expressed by many including myself over whether others at Cheltenham would have too much speed for him. Here, however, he seemingly dispelled those suggestions, quickening away nicely from a well regarded rival off a leisurely gallop. There are still slight doubts over his ability to handle much quicker ground, which he could face at the Festival, but he does appear to possess a significant blend of speed and stamina, along with a sound hurdling technique, and is not one to dismiss lightly for the juvenile hurdlers’ showpiece at the Festival.

Having praised Far West for producing a surprising level of speed there is the possibility he was flattered in that department. I have suggested after each of his runs over hurdles that River Maigue is likely to improve again once he tackles longer trips, especially given his pointing background where he won over three miles as a four-year-old. As a result, Far West’s ability to beat River Maigue for speed may not be the achievement it appeared on first viewing. Ruby Walsh failed to force Far West comfortably clear on the run-in, with the gap between first and second largely remaining the same. This might just have been a case of two future stayers sprinting.

Such was the ridiculous nature of the race on Saturday that it is almost impossible to learn anything about River Maigue’s chances in the Supreme. It could indicate that he is not a potential star, particularly over two miles, like a number of others heading for the Supreme, but that is still rather harsh as the race was so far removed from what he will face at Cheltenham it is hardly worth thinking about. Everything River Maigue has shown gives me the idea that he will be seen to best effect off a strong pace on ground quicker than soft. He is yet to face these conditions, hence it would be remiss to judge him too harshly on what he has done so far, despite failing to give out the wow factor of his stablemate My Tent Or Yours. Unlike so many of his rivals, who will have had an overly long break before Cheltenham, River Maigue will have had a recent run which is often a positive when it comes to the Festival. There is the possibility of leaving a horse’s race behind with a prep race too close to the Festival, but this quasi sprint was far from a gruelling test.

He is held in high esteem by Barry Geraghty and Nicky Henderson, while I have had a soft spot for him since his debut in this country behind Royal Guardsman in the aforementioned bumper, yet despite desperately trying to avoid dismissing River Maigue as a serious player and demean his achievements, this upcoming Supreme looks likely to fall to a horse that is exceptional over two miles. River Maigue is unlikely to prove that in my eyes and I expect he will struggle to finish in the places next month despite being a prospect I still want to follow closely. I am confident River Maigue has a bright future, primarily over fences, he is just a shade unfortunate to be among a particularly strong crop of novice hurdlers as in a normal year he would be a major threat to all.

Supreme Novices Update: Moscow Flyer Novice Hurdle review

We find ourselves with only five weeks until the big day. Before you know it the Festival will have been and gone, leaving us with thoughts of the upcoming flat season. While Aintree will be an entertaining interlude, the prospect of the Cheltenham Festival ending is grim, to say the least. In reality that is still some way off, for all that it won’t feel that way once it arrives, and there are still trial races to digest and consider. One such trial was the Moscow Flyer Novice Hurdle at Punchestown on Sunday won last year by Trifolium, an unlucky third in the Supreme, and previously by Mikael D’Haguenet for Willie Mullins. Mullins won the race once again this season but it would be bold to predict a similarly authoritative display at Cheltenham from this year’s winner, Mozoltov.

Mozoltov was among the best Irish bumper horses last season despite being soundly beaten three times. His defeat at the hands of Clonbanan Lad may give an indication to what level he is capable of reaching in novice hurdles but that would be unfair. Mozoltov has always been highly regarded but he did not quite have the form to back up his reputation until he ran his best race during the Punchestown Festival, where he finished close to Melodic Rendezvous but a significant distance behind Champagne Fever. That looks a level below what is required for a Supreme, despite how strongly or otherwise Melodic Rendezvous is fancied. This weekend’s run also has the appearance of being a level or two below what will be required. On his first outing this season Mozoltov demolished an atrocious field divulging little about himself in the process, other than he could jump. Again on Sunday his hurdling was fluent and brisk and he consistently came away from the hurdles faster than his better fancied rival Don Cossack, even when Davy Russell found the right stride. Willie Mullins said afterwards that the Supreme would be his next race, perhaps surprising given that he had been slightly under the radar in terms of novice hurdlers. There has not been the same hype and talk about him that has befallen some of his stablemates and maybe it was naive not to enter him into one’s calculations for the Festival opener. Yet Mullins did say at the start of the season that Mozoltov was a chaser in the making and even after this weekend I would struggle to make a case for him winning at Cheltenham based on what he’s done, only on what he might do.

The beaten favourite on Sunday was Don Cossack. He is surely destined to be better over further and his jumping can only hold him back over smaller obstacles, particularly at this trip where speed is paramount and slick jumping is necessitated. However, he already proved that he was inferior to the current standard bearer over two-and-a-half miles, Pont Alexandre, last time at Navan and it is difficult to envisage him recreating that awesome impression he left in bumpers, while hurdling over the minimum trip. In bumpers Don Cossack took people’s imagination, he left an indelible, powerful mark leading many to assume his ascent to the top over obstacles would be swift. On debut this season, there was little to dissuade this notion other than a certain sloppiness in his hurdling technique, but the ground was lamentable and it could be quickly brushed aside by connections and onlookers. Unfortunately, next time out against the imperious Neptune bound Pont Alexandre the problem appeared more chronic. There was certainly improvement in that area on Sunday but not enough to suggest that he will reach the heights over hurdles that once seemed inevitable.

The faith shown in him by his talented trainer is tough, possibly foolish, to ignore. This season might appear disappointing when one considers what was expected but Gordon Elliott always maintained he was a future chaser from the top drawer and this is hard to refute especially when taking his physique and running style into account. He is a powerful galloper who gives too much air to his hurdles in the manner of a chaser, with fences between him and his goal there may be a different animal waiting to be unleashed. Don Cossack is not the novice hurdler that many had hoped for but the seemingly limitless potential that he possessed in bumpers could be fulfilled over fences once he begins the job he was bred for. When put into the perspective that Don Cossack is effectively a three mile chaser, his hurdling career to date has been far from underwhelming.

Ned Buntline is another well regarded novice but of the well-fancied triumvirate at Punchestown he was the most disappointing. McCoy was at pains to hold him up right off the pace, his keen going tendencies were plain to see, but from last he moved stylishly into third following a big leap two out before fading relatively quickly as the front two quickened clear. Ned Buntline has not looked devoid of pace in his career, hence it could be that he struggled with the ground, failing to pick up as well as his rider might have expected. There will be improvement to come on a sounder surface but this display arguably rules out enough improvement to get competitive in what looks a competitive Supreme and it is possible to say that he, to some extent, holds the form down for the first and second.  A convincing win over Urano (subsequently beaten by the lesser known Legal Exit) on his last run prior to this weekend, Ned Buntline was back on track having shocked connections previously when beaten by Bright New Dawn at Fairyhouse. But, while an extremely useful and still somewhat unexposed novice hurdler, Bright New Dawn was comfortably dispatched by Jezki, current favourite for the Supreme, on his next start. Jessica Harrington’s five-year-old was unextended and Ned Buntline’s conqueror was all of eight lengths behind. Once his chance was gone Ned Buntline was caringly handled by McCoy here and he was only beaten six-and-a-half-lengths. If Mozoltov or even Don Cossack had pretensions on the Supreme crown they needed to pull further clear. The way Jezki has finished off his races over hurdles indicates that we are someway off seeing his limit whereas Mozoltov was all out to see off Don Cossack.

Willie Mullins’ charge may prove to be better than this, with Ruby Walsh suggesting afterwards that he wasn’t entirely enjoying the ground but he has only run so far on soft or heavy ground and his best performance, up until this weekend, had been on essentially unraceable ground at the Punchestown Festival. I wouldn’t be desperate to suggest that he will improve for the quicker ground normally prevalent at Cheltenham. Mozoltov may improve for the faster pace and bigger field in the Supreme, he was ridden quite aggressively at Punchestown and could be more impressive were he to be held up off a stronger gallop, but it is all about how much and while his price may appear tempting on the face of it now, once we have seen next weekend’s events it may well look on the mean side.

Triumph Hurdle Update: Rolling Star

Supreme Novice clues were thin on the ground last week with multiple abandonments and the lack of a trial on Cheltenham Trials Day. Alan King did mention the race as the spring target for his stylish jumpers’ bumper winner Fair Trade. He cruised through the race at Kempton and saw off the potentially high class hurdler Pearl Swan with considerable ease. Raymond Tooth’s six-year-old was more than useful on the flat having been placed in a Group 3, he was even seen as good enough to compete in the 2000 Guineas won by, the still underrated, Makfi. Despite this, designs on the Supreme appear far-fetched to me, Alan King contests that he will improve markedly for better ground, but so will a host of others going for the race who have shown significantly superior hurdling form so far. Fair Trade is not the most straightforward of horses either which would be a concern for Cheltenham. One more run is planned for him before the Festival and unless he blossoms into a different horse on the back of his all-weather confidence booster I cannot envisage him being anything other than a long shot in March, and a long shot he will deserve to be.
   
Fortunately, there were a host of Festival markers laid down over the weekend with the standout performance probably produced by Pont Alexandre at Leopardstown (Sunday). Yet it is back at the home of jump racing where I want to concentrate. In the first race at Cheltenham on Saturday I fully expected a genuine, strong Triumph Hurdle contender to emerge and emerge he did, but it was not the contender I or many others expected.

Irish Saint arrived in the care of Paul Nicholls on the back of an impressive victory in a Listed Hurdle in France. That was his only run before moving to England and Nicholls saw him almost immediately as a chasing prospect. His bullishness before Irish Saint’s debut in this country at Kempton contributed to his charge’s odds-on SP but the confidence was well placed as he ran out an exceptionally impressive winner. He jumped and travelled smoothly before quickening away like a classy hurdler should, leaving the decent yardstick, McVicar toiling in his wake. I was really taken with this display and when it came to Saturday I felt he would extend his winning streak, setting himself up for a tilt at the Triumph in the process.

I was not alone in that view either as he was backed in to odds-on favouritism once more. Sadly for his supporters Irish Saint met with defeat for the first time. There were no excuses, he was already proven on the ground, Irish Saint had just come up against a better horse and, in my view, the genuine Triumph Hurdle contender we had expected to see. Rolling Star was only a maiden on the flat after seven starts but he did manage to win his first start over hurdles in France and with Nicky Henderson he was evidently improving all the time as positive reports about his work surfaced in the run up to Saturday’s race. There was also sustained support for the Triumph, he was around 12/1 shortly before the race. A bold showing was anticipated but Irish Saint looked a particularly tough nut to crack on the back of his Kempton demolition job. Intriguingly, however, Timeform rated Rolling Star’s French form one pound superior to Irish Saint’s, this was an indication of what was to follow.

Irish Saint set off in front under Ruby Walsh, keen to dictate a reasonable pace believing he was on the best horse, with Rolling Star and Barry Geraghty sitting in third eager to track the favourite. They both travelled easily through the race and as Feb Thirtyfirst cracked Rolling Star took up second from the third last, with the rest struggling the race boiled down to a match between two bright juveniles. Despite both jockeys looking comfortable all the way to the last, there was just an air of confidence exuding from Barry Geraghty and concern from Ruby Walsh as they approached the final obstacle. Irish Saint is a brilliant jumper of hurdles and he cleared the last exuberantly, in contrast Rolling Star, who, not the natural his opponent is, was slow costing himself valuable momentum. Geraghty was not perturbed, gradually winding is mount back up to move alongside the flailing Ruby Walsh, only then did he ask for maximum effort. Rolling Star responded willingly, pulling away from Irish Saint in a manner suggesting there was more to give. ‘Winning cosily’ is an overused term when it comes to finishes but here it seemed appropriate for Rolling Star and Barry Geraghty. The most encouraging aspect for me, in terms of his Festival aspirations, is that without the clumsy fumble of the last I expect Nicky Henderson’s four-year-old would have breezed past Irish Saint. For that reason he may still be underestimated by many, if no longer the bookmakers who have him around 5/1 which neither generous nor mean, as he beat this exciting juvenile with solid form, a tall reputation, and a physique to match even more easily than the comfortable two-and-a-quarter lengths suggests. Adding ballast to the form is Roc D’Apsis, back in third, who finished an almost identical distance behind current joint favourite with Rolling Star, Far West, on his previous run also at Cheltenham. Unlike Far West I anticipate Rolling Star will take to better ground just as easily as the heavy he encountered on Saturday. Were conditions to remain similar in March there would be fierce competition between the pair but as a son of Poliglote, Far West thrives on the heavy going. He has not raced on quicker ground yet, therefore, it may harsh to draw such a conclusion but if the ground does dry up for the Triumph I suspect he will struggle more than most.

The only factor that has stopped me backing him thus far is the nature of the Triumph Hurdle build up. So often we see major protagonists not appearing before February, with the Adonis usually being the most interesting trial in that regard. It is arguably foolhardy to back something for the Triumph before the Adonis with the likes of Zarkandar and Soldatino (two of the last three Triumph winners) popping up there on their British debuts. However, despite Nicky Henderson suggesting he had a couple more juveniles to unleash, he did admit that Rolling Star was probably the best. He has not yet decided whether to run Rolling Star again before Cheltenham but whatever happens we should see progression from his first start in this country for his new trainer to the next. It is tough to be negative about Rolling Star’s chances in the Triumph, at least for me, but it is one of the races at the Festival with many unknowns and horses can suddenly improve dramatically, like Countrywide Flame. If we do get the usual Cheltenham ground in March then there will be some horses who have been unable to show their true colours through this ‘monsoon’ season and from an antepost perspective the best juvenile could still be lurking somewhere with a name most have not even heard of yet.

The Irish have generally struggled to win the Triumph Hurdle but this year they may have their best chance for a while in Diakali for Willie Mullins. He has treated his rivals on both starts so far with utter contempt, turning both races into processions. We should learn more about him as he steps up in grade and hopefully takes on the other top Irish Juveniles, including the likes of Our Conor. Given another dominant display from him I may have to dampen my enthusiasm for Rolling Star. Whether or not Diakali does give Far West and Rolling Star fans something to think about, this year’s renewal of the Triumph Hurdle is heading towards yet another Nicky Henderson versus Willie Mullins versus Paul Nicholls contest at the 2013 Cheltenham Festival.