Cheltenian has a number of entries this week and his return
to action after a huge absence is imminent. If he can come through whichever
test he takes in the coming days he could have a tilt at the Supreme and his
current odds of 40/1 may appear generous. He was an extremely impressive winner
of a memorable, at least it was for me, Champion Bumper but sadly injury has intervened
since. It must be beyond frustrating for connections, with their patience
surely tested, hopefully they can be rewarded with a return to form and a full
season with him from next autumn.
Another memorable bumper personally, came this weekend last
year on the Betfair Ascot Chase card. That day Royal Guardsman flew home, winning emphatically
under Brendan Powell Jnr, his position as leading British hope in Cheltenham’s Champion
Bumper cemented. It has been downhill for him since then however and, having switched
from Colin Tizzard to his owner’s yard, this season has been largely
disappointing with three relatively tame efforts over hurdles. Finishing third in
Royal Guardsman’s Ascot bumper was the former point-to-point winner River
Maigue who just failed to see the race out having been keen and possibly
lacking experience. Unlike Royal Guardsman his career has been on the up since
that race, this season shaping into a serious contender for the Supreme
Novices' Hurdle.
Following his debut over hurdles in November,
when he needed the run and the experience, River Miague went to Kempton on Boxing Day where he sauntered to victory,
thrashing Champion Bumper runner up and fellow Supreme contender New Year’s
Eve. There have been doubts over the form but the ease in which he won and the
bullish reports from connections subsequently sent him near to the head of the
Supreme Novices' ante-post market. He was recently tipped by Pricewise of the Racing Post, thereby
solidifying his market position, and then on Saturday he was set the difficult
task of giving exciting juvenile hurdler Far West 9lb, thanks to the weight-for-age
allowance.
The race itself quickly turned into a farce as the leader,
Boss In Boots, all but ran out leaving Far West in front and a dawdle of a
gallop, to put it mildly. Jumping from both major protagonists was sound, Far
West was particularly athletic when he needed to be four out and two out, but it
wasn’t fluid with neither relishing the hurdles off such a slow pace. The race
culminated in a three furlong sprint which Far West managed to win having been ideally
placed in front by Ruby Walsh. Far West has been no stranger to making the running
since coming over from France but he has been doing it in very testing
conditions, whereas the ground had dried up somewhat on Saturday leaving the
ground quicker he had ever faced, albeit still officially soft. Paul Nicholls’ charge had
looked a strong stayer, often what you need in a Triumph Hurdle, but there were
concerns expressed by many including myself over whether others at Cheltenham
would have too much speed for him. Here, however, he seemingly dispelled those
suggestions, quickening away nicely from a well regarded rival off a leisurely gallop.
There are still slight doubts over his ability to handle much quicker ground,
which he could face at the Festival, but he does appear to possess a
significant blend of speed and stamina, along with a sound hurdling technique,
and is not one to dismiss lightly for the juvenile hurdlers’ showpiece at the Festival.
Having praised Far West for producing a surprising level of
speed there is the possibility he was flattered in that department. I have suggested
after each of his runs over hurdles that River Maigue is likely to improve
again once he tackles longer trips, especially given his pointing background
where he won over three miles as a four-year-old. As a result, Far West’s
ability to beat River Maigue for speed may not be the achievement it appeared on
first viewing. Ruby Walsh failed to force Far West comfortably clear on the run-in,
with the gap between first and second largely remaining the same. This might just
have been a case of two future stayers sprinting.
Such was the ridiculous nature of the race on
Saturday that it is almost impossible to learn anything about River Maigue’s
chances in the Supreme. It could indicate that he is not a potential star,
particularly over two miles, like a number of others heading for the Supreme,
but that is still rather harsh as the race was so far removed from what he will
face at Cheltenham it is hardly worth thinking about. Everything River Maigue
has shown gives me the idea that he will be seen to best effect off a strong
pace on ground quicker than soft. He is yet to face these conditions, hence it
would be remiss to judge him too harshly on what he has done so far, despite
failing to give out the wow factor of his stablemate My Tent Or Yours. Unlike so
many of his rivals, who will have had an overly long break before Cheltenham, River
Maigue will have had a recent run which is often a positive when it comes to
the Festival. There is the possibility of leaving a horse’s race behind with a
prep race too close to the Festival, but this quasi sprint was far from a
gruelling test.
He is held in high esteem by Barry Geraghty and
Nicky Henderson, while I have had a soft spot for him since his debut in this country
behind Royal Guardsman in the aforementioned bumper, yet despite desperately
trying to avoid dismissing River Maigue as a serious player and demean his
achievements, this upcoming Supreme looks likely to fall to a horse that is
exceptional over two miles. River Maigue is unlikely to prove that in my eyes
and I expect he will struggle to finish in the places next month despite being
a prospect I still want to follow closely. I am confident River Maigue has a
bright future, primarily over fences, he is just a shade unfortunate to be
among a particularly strong crop of novice hurdlers as in a normal year he
would be a major threat to all.
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