Supreme Novices Update 2013/14 so far

The long road to Cheltenham has begun in earnest once again. While a drier summer than usual has led to many of jump racing’s big guns being behind schedule, we could well have seen a number of this season’s Festival winners already. Whether the winner of the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle is among them is questionable.

There have been notable performances from horses with realistic Supreme aspirations, although mainly in Ireland where the season gets going earlier. Minella Foru, a winner of a particularly competitive point-to-point at Lemonfield, made his hurdling debut in September. He jumped well and posted a cosy victory over a strongly fancied, Willie Mullins trained French import. Mullins will know where he stands with Minella Foru given his enviable abundance of novice hurdle talent but Eddie Harty’s four-year-old has considerable capacity for improvement, for all that he has a long way to go to be the next Captain Cee Bee.

Carriganog was Aidan O’Brien’s first runner over hurdles for some time. Subsequent to an underwhelming career in bumpers, he was sent to Robbie Power over the summer in order to teach him how to jump and this son of Shantou delivered two fluent successes hinting at bigger things. The form of those in behind Carriganog amounts to very little and he is already being spoken of as a chaser but his quick hurdling technique and extraordinary trainer make it difficult to surmise just what level he can reach this season.  

Working out which of Willie Mullins’ bumper horses to concentrate on in terms of the Supreme is hard enough before factoring in the inevitable imports from the continent and the flat. One such import is Arctic Fire who received quotes for the Festival opener following his striking Irish debut at Tipperary. Slick jumping and a decisive turn-of-foot between the last two flights separated him from his inferior rivals, attributes which bode well for the future. His trainer has so many options in this division that it would almost be imprudent to earmark any for a particular Festival target but Arctic Fire is one candidate for Willie Mullins who should not be required to step up in trip.

The most interesting novice hurdle over two miles this season and the race most likely to have a bearing on the Cheltenham Festival curtain raiser in March did come this side of the Irish Sea at Aintree on Saturday. Despite Champion Bumper winner, Briar Hill heading numerous ante-post lists for the Supreme, the way he shaped in bumpers and his pedigree point towards a hurdling campaign over longer distances. As such, for many the obvious next port of call for this season’s Supreme Novices’ Hurdle winner was Champion Bumper runner-up, Regal Encore. Having reportedly schooled well, Saturday’s return to action was eagerly anticipated and there was enough confidence behind him to be sent off the 8/15 favourite.

Settled in rear by McCoy, who may have expected or at least hoped for a stronger pace, Regal Encore travelled strongly to three out, having moved wide on the final turn in for home. Then, probably with education in mind, McCoy was keen to find cover for much of the straight and only asked for a serious effort as they approached the last. Regal Encore had already made up significant ground to get into contention at the last but the winner of the race, Garde La Victoire, had been given too much rope. McCoy quickly accepted that they were unable to reach the leader and was far from hard on the son of Kings Theatre who stayed on encouragingly, gradually closing the gap to the winner on the run in.

For one among the best in the bumper sphere last season this might be seen as a disappointing defeat for Anthony Honeyball’s charge, but there is no reason to write off Regal Encore as a Supreme candidate yet. At Aintree he appeared to be outpaced by the winner, merely staying on too late as if in need of further. A step up to two-and-a-half miles would be unlikely to cause him a problem yet I get the sense a fast run two miles will prove his optimum for the time being and the Supreme is often a race for strong stayers. His jumping on Saturday was accurate and with further experience, as well as a more aggressive ride, it is not difficult to foresee the form being reversed.

There was enough to take from this race to be excited about his future and the performance was reminiscent of My Tent Or Yours’ defeat at the hands of Chatterbox last season. Concerned about the soft ground at Newbury, on a horse who was particularly difficult to settle at the time, McCoy was at pains to hold My Tent Or Yours up for as long as he could in order to avoid a hard race with future targets in mind. One of those future targets was the Betfair Hurdle back at Newbury in February, which he won in handsome fashion. It is a race that could well suit Regal Encore in time, especially given the likely progress he will make between now and then after this pleasing introduction to hurdles.

Based largely on last season’s achievements, the runner-up on Saturday still seems the more appealing prospect for the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle but that might be doing a disservice to the aforementioned winner, Garde La Victoire. Following a convincing victory in a junior bumper at Exeter last October, numerous factors contributed to his absence from the racecourse until this weekend. The son of Kapgarde was understandably underestimated having come into the race off just one run in moderate company. Having been so difficult to assess before the race, it is evident afterwards that he is a talented novice hurdler. This powerful looking individual pulled hard from the outset but Richard Johnson was able to retain his position just in behind the leaders before an impressive leap at the fourth last took him to the front. He had jumped well up until that point, displaying a reassuring aptitude for hurdles. However, once left alone in the home straight he lost concentration, becoming clumsy at the last three flights, offering a glimmer of hope to the favourite in pursuit. Nevertheless, Garde La Victoire’s laudable attitude allowed him to maintain his advantage as he put his head down and galloped all the way to the line.

This four-year-old has scope in abundance and given his hard-pulling tendencies, two miles will surely be his ideal trip. Hence, were he to make a top novice hurdler this season, his Festival target would be the Supreme, something that can be said for very few exciting prospects this season. His trainer Philip Hobbs knows what it takes to win the race, taking the prize with Menorah in 2010, and if they can curtail his free-going nature he may well pose a threat on the day. From what little evidence we have of him, Garde La Victoire looks ready made for fences and I suggest that is where his future lies. Therefore, were he to make it to Cheltenham in March as a leading contender it would be a surprise, but certainly not an unwelcome one.

Supreme Novices’ Hurdle Prediction: 1-2-3

Despite the incessant reading, listening, tweeting and thinking about Cheltenham, it is somewhat hard to believe that the Festival has all but arrived. Throughout the season I have tried to set out my views on the key trials for the Supreme, detailing how the possible contenders have shaped and hopefully pointing out reasons for and against supporting each horse in advance of the big race next week. It should have become clear who I am keenest on but just in case, now seems the right time to definitively predict the result. Here are the three I fancy to finish first, second and third:

3^rd – Champagne Fever

With the strongest Irish form available it might seem foolish to leave Jezki out of the top three, especially when he has already beaten the third place selection in the Royal Bond Novice Hurdle. Despite doing all that has been asked of him this season, there are reasons to think Jezki will not achieve at Cheltenham what many people are expecting. His emphatic victory at Leopardstown last time forced many to sit up and take notice of this son of Milan but the form has since been let down by Waaheb who during that race at Leopardstown made a horrendous blunder thereby exaggerating the winning distance. There are still concerns about Jezki’s jumping, despite showing significant improvement travelling left-handed, and the good ground he apparently needs to be seen at his best is not materialising. He may, on the face of it, standout as a solid each-way play, but despite preferring to see Jezki’s last run at Cheltenham as largely irrelevant, the way he faded up the hill behind Champagne Fever continues to niggle. The received wisdom is that Willie Mullins’ gangly grey lacks the speed for two miles and the late wavering over his target, between this and the three mile Albert Bartlett, can only be a negative. However, he managed to hold off much ‘faster’ rivals in the Champion Bumper when there were similar concerns and the recent rain will help, he could prove just as hard to pass at Cheltenham over hurdles. I suspect he will lack the speed to win this race but he still looks capable of finishing in the frame. There will likely come a point in the race where he looks sure to be swamped, yet his jumping is good and bold enough to keep him in front for a long way, while his class should help him see off a number of overrated rivals. More than three horses could easily pass Champagne Fever, but such is his abundant stamina, I can see the speedier contenders trying to compete with My Tent Or Yours’ turn of foot and failing, finishing tired, while the stoutly bred son of Stowaway flies up the hill, snatching a place.

2^nd – My Tent Or Yours

Recent defeats for heavily backed, short priced favourites in the Supreme should not be a reason to oppose My Tent Or Yours. He was sensationally impressive in the Betfair Hurdle at Newbury, with three progressive young handicappers making the frame. Nothing in behind can be used to hold the form down, so in a misguided attempt to crab the performance, a slow pace and a beneficially prominent ride have been given as reasons to knock My Tent Or Yours. If anything, I expect a faster pace would have seen Nicky Henderson’s charge appear even more imperious, given his tendency to pull hard. Some have even questioned what My Tent Or Yours finds off the bridle since his Newbury rout. Well from what I could see about ten lengths, but that is debatable, what isn’t debatable is the amount he found to beat subsequent Grade 1 winning hurdler Taquin Du Seuil on hurdling debut, having jumped atrociously. That is no longer an issue with the Desert Prince gelding; his hurdling was electric in the twenty one runner Betfair Hurdle. He is developing rapidly and it would have been no surprise to see My Tent Or Yours run in the Champion Hurdle. In my opinion, this speedster is nearly bombproof as favourite and he has never struck me as being a particularly short price. I will be shocked if, barring injury, incident or illness, My Tent Or Yours does not finish in the first two on Tuesday. Consequently, it might be more sensible to select him as my winner given that I can easily envisage him taking the Festival curtain raiser in a similar fashion to the Betfair Hurdle, but there is a chance another is better and that is a chance I am willing to take.

1^st – Un Atout

The only horse in the field that I can imagine matching or bettering My Tent Or Yours is Un Atout. There was barely a more impressive, jaw-dropping bumper performance during the 2011/2012 season and his hurdling debut this time around was eagerly anticipated. Yet again he mastered his rivals with little effort, dominating the race from the front. The level of opposition he faced at Navan is questionable and the two horses that could have given a level to the form have been deprived the chance of boosting it since; with the fourth, Some Article, being carried out next time, and the second, Fickle Fortune, subsequently suffering a season ending injury. Fickle Fortune herself was an extremely pacey horse in bumpers, thus giving encouragement to those who felt Un Atout would have the speed for grade 1 races over two miles. This was despite the immediate post race comments from his trainer suggesting he is a prospective staying chaser. His jumping on debut was occasionally big, possibly giving rise to those comments, but he was accurate and fast on his next start and Davy Russell has been effusive with praise for his jumping since. Un Atout destroyed his field here, at Naas, on the bridle and he became the serious Supreme contender he is now with Willie Mullins making it clear afterwards that he was content to keep this imposing son of Robin Des Champs at two miles. This was another piece of form potentially lacking strength, with the unreliable Rory O’Moore finishing nineteen lengths away in second. The third though, Art Of Logistics, has won since at Fairyhouse, defeating the aforementioned, and still highly regarded, Waaheb, in the process. The ground at Naas was very deep and Art Of Logistics may not have handled it but the form boost he delivered at least gives substance to Un Atout’s unparalleled style.

He did miss his next intended engagement in the Deloitte due to a sub standard piece of work and even his most ardent fans have to acknowledge his lack of experience; the pace of the race, the ground, the atmosphere and the crowd at Prestbury Park will all be new to him. But he has shown no sign of temperament in his three runs so far, he is a relaxed individual and I would be confident that he will take everything in his powerful stride. The faster pace and the potential emphasis on stamina created by the likes of his stablemate Champagne Fever should suit, while there is still scope for him to improve on the quicker surface at Cheltenham. The Festival will almost certainly start on soft but it will be far removed from the deep, heavy ground Un Atout has faced runs over hurdles up to now.

This will be a truly hot renewal of the Supreme but at Willie Mullins' Closutton base Un Atout is housed in an elite group of three along with Sir Des Champs and Hurricane Fly, and I fancy he can match his illustrious neighbours' success at the Cheltenham Festival in this, the most anticipated race of the year.

1. Un Atout
2. My Tent Or Yours
3. Champagne Fever

Supreme Novices Update: River Maigue (Ascot)

Cheltenian has a number of entries this week and his return to action after a huge absence is imminent. If he can come through whichever test he takes in the coming days he could have a tilt at the Supreme and his current odds of 40/1 may appear generous. He was an extremely impressive winner of a memorable, at least it was for me, Champion Bumper but sadly injury has intervened since. It must be beyond frustrating for connections, with their patience surely tested, hopefully they can be rewarded with a return to form and a full season with him from next autumn.

Another memorable bumper personally, came this weekend last year on the Betfair Ascot Chase card. That day Royal Guardsman flew home, winning emphatically under Brendan Powell Jnr, his position as leading British hope in Cheltenham’s Champion Bumper cemented. It has been downhill for him since then however and, having switched from Colin Tizzard to his owner’s yard, this season has been largely disappointing with three relatively tame efforts over hurdles. Finishing third in Royal Guardsman’s Ascot bumper was the former point-to-point winner River Maigue who just failed to see the race out having been keen and possibly lacking experience. Unlike Royal Guardsman his career has been on the up since that race, this season shaping into a serious contender for the Supreme Novices' Hurdle.

Following his debut over hurdles in November, when he needed the run and the experience, River Miague went to Kempton on Boxing Day where he sauntered to victory, thrashing Champion Bumper runner up and fellow Supreme contender New Year’s Eve. There have been doubts over the form but the ease in which he won and the bullish reports from connections subsequently sent him near to the head of the Supreme Novices' ante-post market. He was recently tipped by Pricewise of the Racing Post, thereby solidifying his market position, and then on Saturday he was set the difficult task of giving exciting juvenile hurdler Far West 9lb, thanks to the weight-for-age allowance.

The race itself quickly turned into a farce as the leader, Boss In Boots, all but ran out leaving Far West in front and a dawdle of a gallop, to put it mildly. Jumping from both major protagonists was sound, Far West was particularly athletic when he needed to be four out and two out, but it wasn’t fluid with neither relishing the hurdles off such a slow pace. The race culminated in a three furlong sprint which Far West managed to win having been ideally placed in front by Ruby Walsh. Far West has been no stranger to making the running since coming over from France but he has been doing it in very testing conditions, whereas the ground had dried up somewhat on Saturday leaving the ground quicker he had ever faced, albeit still officially soft. Paul Nicholls’ charge had looked a strong stayer, often what you need in a Triumph Hurdle, but there were concerns expressed by many including myself over whether others at Cheltenham would have too much speed for him. Here, however, he seemingly dispelled those suggestions, quickening away nicely from a well regarded rival off a leisurely gallop. There are still slight doubts over his ability to handle much quicker ground, which he could face at the Festival, but he does appear to possess a significant blend of speed and stamina, along with a sound hurdling technique, and is not one to dismiss lightly for the juvenile hurdlers’ showpiece at the Festival.

Having praised Far West for producing a surprising level of speed there is the possibility he was flattered in that department. I have suggested after each of his runs over hurdles that River Maigue is likely to improve again once he tackles longer trips, especially given his pointing background where he won over three miles as a four-year-old. As a result, Far West’s ability to beat River Maigue for speed may not be the achievement it appeared on first viewing. Ruby Walsh failed to force Far West comfortably clear on the run-in, with the gap between first and second largely remaining the same. This might just have been a case of two future stayers sprinting.

Such was the ridiculous nature of the race on Saturday that it is almost impossible to learn anything about River Maigue’s chances in the Supreme. It could indicate that he is not a potential star, particularly over two miles, like a number of others heading for the Supreme, but that is still rather harsh as the race was so far removed from what he will face at Cheltenham it is hardly worth thinking about. Everything River Maigue has shown gives me the idea that he will be seen to best effect off a strong pace on ground quicker than soft. He is yet to face these conditions, hence it would be remiss to judge him too harshly on what he has done so far, despite failing to give out the wow factor of his stablemate My Tent Or Yours. Unlike so many of his rivals, who will have had an overly long break before Cheltenham, River Maigue will have had a recent run which is often a positive when it comes to the Festival. There is the possibility of leaving a horse’s race behind with a prep race too close to the Festival, but this quasi sprint was far from a gruelling test.

He is held in high esteem by Barry Geraghty and Nicky Henderson, while I have had a soft spot for him since his debut in this country behind Royal Guardsman in the aforementioned bumper, yet despite desperately trying to avoid dismissing River Maigue as a serious player and demean his achievements, this upcoming Supreme looks likely to fall to a horse that is exceptional over two miles. River Maigue is unlikely to prove that in my eyes and I expect he will struggle to finish in the places next month despite being a prospect I still want to follow closely. I am confident River Maigue has a bright future, primarily over fences, he is just a shade unfortunate to be among a particularly strong crop of novice hurdlers as in a normal year he would be a major threat to all.

Supreme Novices Update: Moscow Flyer Novice Hurdle review

We find ourselves with only five weeks until the big day. Before you know it the Festival will have been and gone, leaving us with thoughts of the upcoming flat season. While Aintree will be an entertaining interlude, the prospect of the Cheltenham Festival ending is grim, to say the least. In reality that is still some way off, for all that it won’t feel that way once it arrives, and there are still trial races to digest and consider. One such trial was the Moscow Flyer Novice Hurdle at Punchestown on Sunday won last year by Trifolium, an unlucky third in the Supreme, and previously by Mikael D’Haguenet for Willie Mullins. Mullins won the race once again this season but it would be bold to predict a similarly authoritative display at Cheltenham from this year’s winner, Mozoltov.

Mozoltov was among the best Irish bumper horses last season despite being soundly beaten three times. His defeat at the hands of Clonbanan Lad may give an indication to what level he is capable of reaching in novice hurdles but that would be unfair. Mozoltov has always been highly regarded but he did not quite have the form to back up his reputation until he ran his best race during the Punchestown Festival, where he finished close to Melodic Rendezvous but a significant distance behind Champagne Fever. That looks a level below what is required for a Supreme, despite how strongly or otherwise Melodic Rendezvous is fancied. This weekend’s run also has the appearance of being a level or two below what will be required. On his first outing this season Mozoltov demolished an atrocious field divulging little about himself in the process, other than he could jump. Again on Sunday his hurdling was fluent and brisk and he consistently came away from the hurdles faster than his better fancied rival Don Cossack, even when Davy Russell found the right stride. Willie Mullins said afterwards that the Supreme would be his next race, perhaps surprising given that he had been slightly under the radar in terms of novice hurdlers. There has not been the same hype and talk about him that has befallen some of his stablemates and maybe it was naive not to enter him into one’s calculations for the Festival opener. Yet Mullins did say at the start of the season that Mozoltov was a chaser in the making and even after this weekend I would struggle to make a case for him winning at Cheltenham based on what he’s done, only on what he might do.

The beaten favourite on Sunday was Don Cossack. He is surely destined to be better over further and his jumping can only hold him back over smaller obstacles, particularly at this trip where speed is paramount and slick jumping is necessitated. However, he already proved that he was inferior to the current standard bearer over two-and-a-half miles, Pont Alexandre, last time at Navan and it is difficult to envisage him recreating that awesome impression he left in bumpers, while hurdling over the minimum trip. In bumpers Don Cossack took people’s imagination, he left an indelible, powerful mark leading many to assume his ascent to the top over obstacles would be swift. On debut this season, there was little to dissuade this notion other than a certain sloppiness in his hurdling technique, but the ground was lamentable and it could be quickly brushed aside by connections and onlookers. Unfortunately, next time out against the imperious Neptune bound Pont Alexandre the problem appeared more chronic. There was certainly improvement in that area on Sunday but not enough to suggest that he will reach the heights over hurdles that once seemed inevitable.

The faith shown in him by his talented trainer is tough, possibly foolish, to ignore. This season might appear disappointing when one considers what was expected but Gordon Elliott always maintained he was a future chaser from the top drawer and this is hard to refute especially when taking his physique and running style into account. He is a powerful galloper who gives too much air to his hurdles in the manner of a chaser, with fences between him and his goal there may be a different animal waiting to be unleashed. Don Cossack is not the novice hurdler that many had hoped for but the seemingly limitless potential that he possessed in bumpers could be fulfilled over fences once he begins the job he was bred for. When put into the perspective that Don Cossack is effectively a three mile chaser, his hurdling career to date has been far from underwhelming.

Ned Buntline is another well regarded novice but of the well-fancied triumvirate at Punchestown he was the most disappointing. McCoy was at pains to hold him up right off the pace, his keen going tendencies were plain to see, but from last he moved stylishly into third following a big leap two out before fading relatively quickly as the front two quickened clear. Ned Buntline has not looked devoid of pace in his career, hence it could be that he struggled with the ground, failing to pick up as well as his rider might have expected. There will be improvement to come on a sounder surface but this display arguably rules out enough improvement to get competitive in what looks a competitive Supreme and it is possible to say that he, to some extent, holds the form down for the first and second.  A convincing win over Urano (subsequently beaten by the lesser known Legal Exit) on his last run prior to this weekend, Ned Buntline was back on track having shocked connections previously when beaten by Bright New Dawn at Fairyhouse. But, while an extremely useful and still somewhat unexposed novice hurdler, Bright New Dawn was comfortably dispatched by Jezki, current favourite for the Supreme, on his next start. Jessica Harrington’s five-year-old was unextended and Ned Buntline’s conqueror was all of eight lengths behind. Once his chance was gone Ned Buntline was caringly handled by McCoy here and he was only beaten six-and-a-half-lengths. If Mozoltov or even Don Cossack had pretensions on the Supreme crown they needed to pull further clear. The way Jezki has finished off his races over hurdles indicates that we are someway off seeing his limit whereas Mozoltov was all out to see off Don Cossack.

Willie Mullins’ charge may prove to be better than this, with Ruby Walsh suggesting afterwards that he wasn’t entirely enjoying the ground but he has only run so far on soft or heavy ground and his best performance, up until this weekend, had been on essentially unraceable ground at the Punchestown Festival. I wouldn’t be desperate to suggest that he will improve for the quicker ground normally prevalent at Cheltenham. Mozoltov may improve for the faster pace and bigger field in the Supreme, he was ridden quite aggressively at Punchestown and could be more impressive were he to be held up off a stronger gallop, but it is all about how much and while his price may appear tempting on the face of it now, once we have seen next weekend’s events it may well look on the mean side.