Before the familiar festive feast of fixtures it is worth
touching on the Grade 2 Kennel Gate Novices hurdle run at Ascot last Friday,
where the winner produced an even clearer indication that he will be a leading
player in the 2014 Supreme. There were reasons to be dissatisfied with the race
as a whole but Irving was a
comprehensive winner and appears to have a future bright enough to match his
burgeoning reputation.
IRVING
Since his electric display at Taunton, trainer Paul Nicholls
and rider Nick Schofield have barely contained their excitement about this son
of Singspiel. He is demonstrably an exuberant work-horse and fortunately he
translates that to the track. I am generally wary of former flat performers
making the grade in a Supreme and the style of his victory at Ascot on his previous start combined with his history on the
level suggested to me that this was a horse all about speed. He had so far, on
admittedly limited evidence, produced bursts of speed in sprint finishes that
his inferior rivals understandably could not match. Already, Aintree stood out
as a long term goal for Irving, the flat track ideally suited to the flat
recruit. The stamina sapping two mile test of Cheltenham, where thorough
stayers have been able come to the fore, didn’t fit what I saw as being Irving’s
ideal but after his most recent display in demanding conditions off a far from
farcical pace it would be remiss of anyone to use a lack of stamina as an excuse
to oppose him.
Among Irving’s opposition on Friday was Splash Of Ginge, for
Nigel Twiston-Davies, who had set a strong pace when emphatically seeing off a field
of 7 at Aintree last time out and he attempted to make all once again. His
presence meant the race was relatively truly run for a small field novices’
hurdle and it allowed Nick Schofield to settle his potentially keen
five-year-old in rear. Despite flattening the second flight, which in fairness
cost him no momentum, he was fluid over his obstacles and he shapes like a
natural jumper, a point exemplified by the last where his greater aptitude for
the task saw him pick his legs up higher and faster than Prince Siegfried who fell
when upsides, having taken off from the same point. Prince Siegfried showed
significant improvement from his narrow defeat of My Wigwam Or Yours to be in
with a shout before this calamity. He was coming off second best and it is
difficult to be sure how much he would have found after the last, however, assuming
such a heavy fall has not left a mark this was a hugely encouraging effort from
another smart flat recruit to the superlative Bloomfields operation.
Having travelled comfortably throughout, Nick Schofield was
only pressed into action aboard Irving after jumping the penultimate flight as
the aforementioned Prince Siegfried closed the inviting gap Irving was trying
to move into. This posed no real problem as Schofield switched his mount
around Denis O’Regan’s and with a shake of the reins Irving was immediately alongside.
As the pair quickened clear of the eventual second and third Irving seemed to
be in charge of the contest and pulled further clear as he was left in front at
the final obstacle. His notable acceleration had been seen over hurdles before
and again it settled matters in style on Friday yet on this occasion, in a race
that was more than a sprint, he saw the race out strongly beating two rivals
who weren’t stopping. The impression left by Paul Nicholls’ charge must be
mitigated the fall of Prince Siegfried as he surely would have finished within
the final six lengths margin of victory while the same could be said for Volnay
De Thaix who was staying on nicely before being hampered. Of course Irving was
hardly all out himself and without being pressed after the last he could not be tested to his limit.
As an individual, Irving is hard to find fault with. He has
matured with each start and his nickname ‘Concorde’ speaks for itself. Nonetheless,
he is not obliterating his fields and despite Volnay De Thaix having the potential
beforehand, he has yet to face another high class rival or one who could be
considered a Supreme contender. He has done more than enough though and he is
bound to face such a foe(s) if he heads to the Tolworth next. We will learn
even more about him there, or wherever he goes, the listed race at Exeter in
early February may be another viable option (Puffin Billy attempted the double
before taking his chance in the Supreme) and in an open year the 14/1 still
available for the Festival curtain raiser is on the generous side.
Prince Siegfried is probably behind the likes of Mijhaar and
Dubai Prince (entered in the Grade 1 Future Champions Novice Hurdle at
Leopardstown on Friday) in the Bloomfields novice hurdling pecking order and
the same would be said about Volnay De Thaix
who sits behind the likes of West Wizard and Josses Hill, another classy winner
this week. Like Josses Hill, Volnay De Thaix is very much a raw chaser on looks
and was probably doing well to produce such a promising performance against the
sharp, flat types he faced on Friday. There will have been a tinge of
disappointment given he was backed into odds-on favouritism, the second Judy
Wilson owned novice hurdler defeated last week following Tistory on Wednesday,
but in his two previous efforts over hurdles, while totally dominant, he faced
a set of opponents severely lacking in ability. This was evidently not the case
at Ascot and as the pace picked up in the straight he found it tough going
under Barry Geraghty, coming off the bridle earlier than his rivals, patently lacking
the speed of Irving and Prince Siegfried. His jumping did, however, stand up
under pressure which bodes well for the future. He would have finished considerably
more than a short head in front of Splash Of Ginge (to whom he was giving three
pounds) were it not for being hampered and the Secret Singer gelding ran very
much as if further would suit him in this better company. That does not make
him a Neptune contender but he should still hold his own over intermediate
trips, particularly if they try to exploit his handicap mark, before being sent
over fences, perhaps next season, when he will have hopefully grown up (described
as a “big baby” by connections after his first two runs in this country) and in that sphere Volnay
De Thaix will prove an even more exciting prospect.
Despite the incessant reading, listening, tweeting and
thinking about Cheltenham, it is somewhat hard to believe that the Festival has
all but arrived. Throughout the season I have tried to set out my views on the
key trials for the Supreme, detailing how the possible contenders have shaped
and hopefully pointing out reasons for and against supporting each horse in
advance of the big race next week. It should have become clear who I am keenest
on but just in case, now seems the right time to definitively predict the
result. Here are the three I fancy to finish first, second and third:
3rd – Champagne Fever
With the
strongest Irish form available it might seem foolish to leave Jezki out of the
top three, especially when he has already beaten the third place selection in
the Royal Bond Novice Hurdle. Despite doing all that has been asked of him this
season, there are reasons to think Jezki will not achieve at Cheltenham what
many people are expecting. His emphatic victory at Leopardstown last time
forced many to sit up and take notice of this son of Milan but the form has
since been let down by Waaheb who during that race at Leopardstown made a
horrendous blunder thereby exaggerating the winning distance. There are still
concerns about Jezki’s jumping, despite showing significant improvement
travelling left-handed, and the good ground he apparently needs to be seen at
his best is not materialising. He may, on the face of it, standout as a solid
each-way play, but despite preferring to see Jezki’s last run at Cheltenham as
largely irrelevant, the way he faded up the hill behind Champagne Fever continues to niggle. The received wisdom is that
Willie Mullins’ gangly grey lacks the speed for two miles and the late wavering
over his target, between this and the three mile Albert Bartlett, can only be a
negative. However, he managed to hold off much ‘faster’ rivals in the Champion
Bumper when there were similar concerns and the recent rain will help, he could
prove just as hard to pass at Cheltenham over hurdles. I suspect he will lack
the speed to win this race but he still looks capable of finishing in the
frame. There will likely come a point in the race where he looks sure to be
swamped, yet his jumping is good and bold enough to keep him in front for a
long way, while his class should help him see off a number of overrated rivals.
More than three horses could easily pass Champagne Fever, but such is his
abundant stamina, I can see the speedier contenders trying to compete with My
Tent Or Yours’ turn of foot and failing, finishing tired, while the stoutly
bred son of Stowaway flies up the hill, snatching a place.
2nd – My Tent Or Yours
Recent defeats for heavily backed, short priced favourites
in the Supreme should not be a reason to oppose My Tent Or Yours. He was sensationally impressive in the Betfair
Hurdle at Newbury, with three progressive young handicappers making the frame.
Nothing in behind can be used to hold the form down, so in a misguided attempt
to crab the performance, a slow pace and a beneficially prominent ride have
been given as reasons to knock My Tent Or Yours. If anything, I expect a faster
pace would have seen Nicky Henderson’s charge appear even more imperious, given
his tendency to pull hard. Some have even questioned what My Tent Or Yours
finds off the bridle since his Newbury rout. Well from what I could see about
ten lengths, but that is debatable, what isn’t debatable is the amount he found
to beat subsequent Grade 1 winning hurdler Taquin Du Seuil on hurdling debut,
having jumped atrociously. That is no longer an issue with the Desert Prince gelding;
his hurdling was electric in the twenty one runner Betfair Hurdle. He is
developing rapidly and it would have been no surprise to see My Tent Or Yours
run in the Champion Hurdle. In my opinion, this speedster is nearly bombproof
as favourite and he has never struck me as being a particularly short price. I
will be shocked if, barring injury, incident or illness, My Tent Or Yours does
not finish in the first two on Tuesday. Consequently, it might be more sensible
to select him as my winner given that I can easily envisage him taking the
Festival curtain raiser in a similar fashion to the Betfair Hurdle, but there
is a chance another is better and that is a chance I am willing to take.
1st – Un Atout
The only horse in the field that I can imagine matching or
bettering My Tent Or Yours is Un Atout.
There was barely a more impressive, jaw-dropping bumper performance during the
2011/2012 season and his hurdling debut this time around was eagerly
anticipated. Yet again he mastered his rivals with little effort, dominating
the race from the front. The level of opposition he faced at Navan is
questionable and the two horses that could have given a level to the form have
been deprived the chance of boosting it since; with the fourth, Some Article, being
carried out next time, and the second, Fickle Fortune, subsequently suffering a
season ending injury. Fickle Fortune herself was an extremely pacey horse in
bumpers, thus giving encouragement to those who felt Un Atout would have the
speed for grade 1 races over two miles. This was despite the immediate post
race comments from his trainer suggesting he is a prospective staying chaser. His
jumping on debut was occasionally big, possibly giving rise to those comments,
but he was accurate and fast on his next start and Davy Russell has been
effusive with praise for his jumping since. Un Atout destroyed his field here,
at Naas, on the bridle and he became the serious Supreme contender he is now
with Willie Mullins making it clear afterwards that he was content to keep this
imposing son of Robin Des Champs at two miles. This was another piece of form
potentially lacking strength, with the unreliable Rory O’Moore finishing
nineteen lengths away in second. The third though, Art Of Logistics, has won
since at Fairyhouse, defeating the aforementioned, and still highly regarded,
Waaheb, in the process. The ground at Naas was very deep and Art Of Logistics
may not have handled it but the form boost he delivered at least gives
substance to Un Atout’s unparalleled style.
He did miss his next intended engagement in the Deloitte due
to a sub standard piece of work and even his most ardent fans have to
acknowledge his lack of experience; the pace of the race, the ground, the
atmosphere and the crowd at Prestbury Park will all be new to him. But he has
shown no sign of temperament in his three runs so far, he is a relaxed
individual and I would be confident that he will take everything in his
powerful stride. The faster pace and the potential emphasis on stamina created
by the likes of his stablemate Champagne Fever should suit, while there is
still scope for him to improve on the quicker surface at Cheltenham. The
Festival will almost certainly start on soft but it will be far removed from
the deep, heavy ground Un Atout has faced runs over hurdles up to now.
This will be a truly hot renewal of the Supreme but at
Willie Mullins' Closutton base Un Atout is housed in an elite group of three
along with Sir Des Champs and Hurricane Fly, and I fancy he can match his
illustrious neighbours' success at the Cheltenham Festival in this, the most
anticipated race of the year.
Cheltenian has a number of entries this week and his return
to action after a huge absence is imminent. If he can come through whichever
test he takes in the coming days he could have a tilt at the Supreme and his
current odds of 40/1 may appear generous. He was an extremely impressive winner
of a memorable, at least it was for me, Champion Bumper but sadly injury has intervened
since. It must be beyond frustrating for connections, with their patience
surely tested, hopefully they can be rewarded with a return to form and a full
season with him from next autumn.
Another memorable bumper personally, came this weekend last
year on the Betfair Ascot Chase card. That day Royal Guardsman flew home, winning emphatically
under Brendan Powell Jnr, his position as leading British hope in Cheltenham’s Champion
Bumper cemented. It has been downhill for him since then however and, having switched
from Colin Tizzard to his owner’s yard, this season has been largely
disappointing with three relatively tame efforts over hurdles. Finishing third in
Royal Guardsman’s Ascot bumper was the former point-to-point winner River
Maigue who just failed to see the race out having been keen and possibly
lacking experience. Unlike Royal Guardsman his career has been on the up since
that race, this season shaping into a serious contender for the Supreme
Novices' Hurdle.
Following his debut over hurdles in November,
when he needed the run and the experience, River Miague went to Kempton on Boxing Day where he sauntered to victory,
thrashing Champion Bumper runner up and fellow Supreme contender New Year’s
Eve. There have been doubts over the form but the ease in which he won and the
bullish reports from connections subsequently sent him near to the head of the
Supreme Novices' ante-post market. He was recently tipped by Pricewise of the Racing Post, thereby
solidifying his market position, and then on Saturday he was set the difficult
task of giving exciting juvenile hurdler Far West 9lb, thanks to the weight-for-age
allowance.
The race itself quickly turned into a farce as the leader,
Boss In Boots, all but ran out leaving Far West in front and a dawdle of a
gallop, to put it mildly. Jumping from both major protagonists was sound, Far
West was particularly athletic when he needed to be four out and two out, but it
wasn’t fluid with neither relishing the hurdles off such a slow pace. The race
culminated in a three furlong sprint which Far West managed to win having been ideally
placed in front by Ruby Walsh. Far West has been no stranger to making the running
since coming over from France but he has been doing it in very testing
conditions, whereas the ground had dried up somewhat on Saturday leaving the
ground quicker he had ever faced, albeit still officially soft. Paul Nicholls’ charge had
looked a strong stayer, often what you need in a Triumph Hurdle, but there were
concerns expressed by many including myself over whether others at Cheltenham
would have too much speed for him. Here, however, he seemingly dispelled those
suggestions, quickening away nicely from a well regarded rival off a leisurely gallop.
There are still slight doubts over his ability to handle much quicker ground,
which he could face at the Festival, but he does appear to possess a
significant blend of speed and stamina, along with a sound hurdling technique,
and is not one to dismiss lightly for the juvenile hurdlers’ showpiece at the Festival.
Having praised Far West for producing a surprising level of
speed there is the possibility he was flattered in that department. I have suggested
after each of his runs over hurdles that River Maigue is likely to improve
again once he tackles longer trips, especially given his pointing background
where he won over three miles as a four-year-old. As a result, Far West’s
ability to beat River Maigue for speed may not be the achievement it appeared on
first viewing. Ruby Walsh failed to force Far West comfortably clear on the run-in,
with the gap between first and second largely remaining the same. This might just
have been a case of two future stayers sprinting.
Such was the ridiculous nature of the race on
Saturday that it is almost impossible to learn anything about River Maigue’s
chances in the Supreme. It could indicate that he is not a potential star,
particularly over two miles, like a number of others heading for the Supreme,
but that is still rather harsh as the race was so far removed from what he will
face at Cheltenham it is hardly worth thinking about. Everything River Maigue
has shown gives me the idea that he will be seen to best effect off a strong
pace on ground quicker than soft. He is yet to face these conditions, hence it
would be remiss to judge him too harshly on what he has done so far, despite
failing to give out the wow factor of his stablemate My Tent Or Yours. Unlike so
many of his rivals, who will have had an overly long break before Cheltenham, River
Maigue will have had a recent run which is often a positive when it comes to
the Festival. There is the possibility of leaving a horse’s race behind with a
prep race too close to the Festival, but this quasi sprint was far from a
gruelling test.
He is held in high esteem by Barry Geraghty and
Nicky Henderson, while I have had a soft spot for him since his debut in this country
behind Royal Guardsman in the aforementioned bumper, yet despite desperately
trying to avoid dismissing River Maigue as a serious player and demean his
achievements, this upcoming Supreme looks likely to fall to a horse that is
exceptional over two miles. River Maigue is unlikely to prove that in my eyes
and I expect he will struggle to finish in the places next month despite being
a prospect I still want to follow closely. I am confident River Maigue has a
bright future, primarily over fences, he is just a shade unfortunate to be
among a particularly strong crop of novice hurdlers as in a normal year he
would be a major threat to all.
Betfair’s Super Saturday at Newbury lost some of its lustre
with the decisions not to run Long Run or Simonsig in their respective prep
races for the Festival. This left the card without a serious Arkle/Champion
Chase contender and Silviniaco Conti with a seemingly straightforward task in
the Denman Chase. Racing is rarely as simple as that though and it delivered
more than enough excitement to make up for Nicky Henderson’s cautiousness. Ironically
it was Henderson’s own My Tent Or Yours who really lit up Saturday’s card and
the whole weekend. Prior to the Betfair Hurdle My Tent Or Yours was a rare
beast in that his Cheltenham target was inevitable, evident from a very early
stage, well it was until he did that!
After his scintillating display on Saturday My Tent Or Yours
is quite rightly being talked up as a Champion Hurdle horse and he would not be
out of place in that field, rather a deserved leading contender. The one
issue left with Nicky Henderson’s charge, having sorted out his
jumping at Huntingdon, was his free-going nature. He had been over-exuberant
and keen in each run so far, the concern being whether he could find enough off
the bridle after using up so much energy in a race against higher quality
opposition. This frailty was harshly exposed by The New One in last season’s
exceptional renewal of the Aintree Bumper. My Tent Or Yours is a better,
stronger individual now but this was still a minor worry in a ‘competitive’
race like the Betfair Hurdle. As such I expected him to be settled in rear and
pick off the other runners one by one, much like he had tried and failed to do on
his last visit to Newbury. Maybe in the knowledge that there were few, if any,
horses involved willing to set the pace or maybe just with supreme confidence
AP McCoy crossed the tape, near enough, in front. From then on it was McCoy’s
mission to settle him, My Tent Or Yours still pulled against his rider but
McCoy was able drop him back as they left the home straight for the
first time. In a seemingly ideal position on the inside rail,
McCoy was in search of cover all the way up the back straight, just making sure
he could keep a lid on all the enthusiasm and speed underneath him. As the
field entered the home straight My Tent Or Yours had moved up into fifth and as
commentator Richard Hoiles pointed out it was plain to see that McCoy was
intent on slipstreaming the mare, Swing Bowler, for as long as he could. As
the leaders drew away from the third last My Tent Or Yours was still pulling as
he latched right onto the tail of Swing Bowler, before moving out to jump the
second last. At that moment there was only one horse catching the eye and it
became a matter of how far. Finally let go by McCoy at the last, the Desert
Prince gelding rapped the hurdle as his acceleration got the better of him
before powering clear under hands and heels, eventually easing down to a five
length victory.
There is little more that he could have done here, his
jumping was neat and fast, particularly at the second where he was unsighted thereby
forcing him in close to the hurdle but he was extraordinarily nimble over it,
thanks in no small part, I am sure, to AP McCoy’s intensive schooling. My Tent
Or Yours found plenty off the bridle, putting an eight or nine length gap on
the field as he was let down, before being eased. Despite the steady pace set
the form could not look much stronger, with nothing in there holding it down
and three thoroughly progressive handicappers filling the places. Cotton Mill
had been well fancied for this, primarily on the back of his run in the Neptune
where he was travelling nearly as well as Simonsig at the second last before
running out in spectacular fashion. His impressive performance here does make
the decision to run Cotton Mill over three miles straight after his Cheltenham
calamity seem somewhat perplexing and with connections' desire to avoid heavy
ground at all costs, the rain, sleet and snow which greeted us at Newbury on
Saturday can’t have benefitted him. Neither was the race run especially to suit
as he would have preferred a stronger pace, he lacked the speed of the winner,
but then most jumpers do, and arguably Swing Bowler before his stamina kicked
in, finishing strongly into second. There is clearly more to come, even before
taking into account that this was his first run for 302 days, and he is an
exciting prospect wherever he goes. A trip to the Champion Hurdle would not be unthinkable
and were My Tent Or Yours to revert to novice company he would be a fascinating
barometer of the Betfair Hurdle form. This could well be one of the strongest handicap
hurdles of the whole season and it must be wise to consider strongly the likes
of Swing Bowler and Dark Lover for the County Hurdle, Village Vic for the Coral
Cup and even Caid Du Berlais for the Fred Winter, having shown up well for a
long way despite running wide and being out of the weights.
I am struggling to find any negatives around My Tent Or
Yours' chances for the Supreme Novices Hurdle and he is a worthy favourite,
having usurped fellow JP McManus purchase Jezki. Ominously for his rivals, My
Tent Or Yours has shown that he handles testing conditions while he is likely
to improve for a quicker surface. He just has so much pace and as I suggested
after his last run there was nothing in the Betfair
Hurdle that could live with him. The only question left for me about My Tent Or
Yours is whether something like the completely unexposed Un Atout is better,
although the question that might prove more pertinent in the lead up to the
Cheltenham Festival is whether it is Un Atout’s fellow Closutton
inmate Hurricane Fly who is better?
Also in the care of Willie Mullins in
Closutton, County Carlow is last season’s Champion Bumper winner Champagne
Fever. Every indication was that he was going to prove to be substantially
better over further than two miles, especially his defeat to Jezki at the start
of the season where it looked only a matter of time before he was stepped up in
trip on his way to Cheltenham for either the Neptune or Albert Bartlett novice
hurdles. Yet on his first run over two-and-a-half miles he ran deplorably
although that was down to a respiratory tract infection discovered subsequently.
Understandably Willie Mullins gave him a reasonable break to recover from his illness and it was only after apparently impressing in a piece of work that the
trainer decided to run him in the Deloitte Novice Hurdle (Leopardstown) on
Saturday instead of the aforementioned Un Atout. This was over two miles and
two furlongs and was assumed to be Champagne Fever’s prep for the Neptune,
especially with the presence of Pique Sous and Mozoltov, alongside Un Atout, as
Supreme Novice contenders. Such is the owner’s strength in the novice hurdle
divisions, however, he already has leading fancies in the Neptune and Albert
Bartlett. With the desire to have a runner in each Festival race, Champagne
Fever’s winning form over two miles at Cheltenham and his proximity to long time Supreme
Favourite Jezki on just his second start over hurdles, it is hard to argue Rich
Ricci’s decision isn’t justified.
During Saturday’s race the fall, at the
second, of main rival Waaheb handed Champagne Fever a relatively
straightforward task, assuming he was none the worse for his previous
infection. Under an aggressive ride from new pilot Paul Townend, this willing
son of Stowaway set a tempo likely to expose any weakness in his opposition and
bring his strength, stamina, to the fore. Aside from a not insignificant
mistake at the first his jumping was accomplished and if he is to try similar
tactics in the Supreme his jumping will need to be absolutely foot perfect.
Here it nearly was as he took lengths out of his challengers at most obstacles,
there is a special chaser in there waiting to get out and it is a shame we
didn’t see him over fences this season. All bar Bright New Dawn were left
toiling in behind Champagne Fever, whose prodigious galloping was too much for
the rest to handle. Bright New Dawn did look a serious danger in on the run
up to the last, having travelled sweetly with the guidance of Davy Russell, but
the victory was sealed by the gangly grey with another fluent leap at the final flight,
as he was always going to outstay his Dessie Hughes trained opponent.
Ruby Walsh has a very tough decision to make
as he has the option of riding Dodging Bullets, for Paul Nicholls, and Pique
Sous, Mozoltov and now Champagne Fever, for Willie Mullins, in the Supreme. I
would suggest he rides Champagne Fever as there is no doubt in my mind that he
is the best horse in that foursome, the worry would be whether he will be
effective enough over the minimum trip. The Neptune looks made for him but with
the presence of the inimitable Pont Alexandre, the Supreme it will have to be. Whether
he can reverse early season form with Jezki is highly doubtful and Bright New
Dawn gave that horse another boost having been eight lengths behind in the Future
Champions Novice Hurdle. There is also the matter of whether Champagne Fever
can hold off a number of far speedier types as he is sent for home, but such is
his class I suspect there is every chance that he can hold off enough to be right
there at the last and whatever happens it will be a tantalising spectacle.
On Sunday, we saw a highly anticipated clash
between two more horses that, earlier in the season, I had expected to go down
the Neptune novices hurdle route. Melodic Rendezvous and Puffin Billy were both
comfortable winners on their last start, winning a grade 1 and a grade 2
respectively. Both are extremely well regarded by connections and both sets were
convinced they were going to win at Exeter. Despite Melodic Rendezvous being
the grade 1 winner it was Puffin Billy who was sent off the odds on favourite.
Oliver Sherwood’s son of Heron Island had looked awesome in two bumpers and two
novice hurdles to date, showing a combination of pace and power that marked him
out as a danger to all with Cheltenham on the horizon, yet it was the locally trained
(to Exeter) Melodic Rendezvous who came out comprehensively on top.
Nick Schofield was under the impression that
Puffin Billy was more of a stayer than his mount Melodic Rendezvous. Believing
he could beat him for speed Schofield tracked Puffin Billy nearly throughout
the contest, only making his challenge at the last. The torrential rain in the
morning had left the ground bordering on bottomless but both of the main
protagonists in this five runner affair had experience on this sort of surface,
as a result it was not expected to inconvenience either and it is hard to say
it did. Melodic Rendezvous again jumped well throughout, he is a natural
hurdler, and Puffin Billy seemingly improved his hurdling technique but one
serious blunder two out probably sealed his fate. At the last the two were side
by side but Leighton Aspell had been hard at Puffin Billy for most of the
straight whilst Nick Schofield had been motionless on Melodic Rendezvous. Once
asked he quickened away instantly, leaving the struggling Puffin Billy for
dead. On the face of it this was an exciting performance from a progressive
novice and he has definitely improved physically through the season (compared
to when I saw him at Cheltenham anyway) but the manner in which Puffin Billy made such hard
work of it from so far out suggested that there was something amiss with him
and he was later discovered to be lame, thus explaining the lack of correlation
between how he had run up until then and how he ran on Sunday.
It is far from ideal for Puffin Billy and his
connections’ Cheltenham aspirations to run such a lacklustre race so near to
the Festival but it would be wrong to judge him on this performance and he is
still a hugely promising horse. It would also, therefore, be wrong to draw too
many hard and fast conclusions about the winner Melodic Rendezvous. What I can
reiterate is that he jumps well and he clearly has a dangerous turn of foot but
he is yet to show me that he has the star potential that will be necessary to
win this season’s Supreme. I was concerned after his grade 1 win that I could be underestimating him, and that is still the case
but it is just too easy to knock the Tolworth form, while he was lucky in my
opinion to win at Cheltenham and on hurdling debut he was defeated by Mr Mole
who has just won a minor handicap off a mark of 126. Now, that fails to tell the
whole story as Mr Mole is another promising sort who won emphatically but that
has to be a concern for Melodic Rendezvous supporters, especially as it was on
the quickest ground he has faced over hurdles. Were Cheltenham to be heavy I
think he would suddenly become an interesting player but I expect he will
struggle on a sounder surface against the calibre of opposition expected at the Festival.
Following
Sunday’s win bookmakers shortened up Melodic Rendezvous into 8/1 generally for
the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle. This was an overreaction especially as his only
rival in the listed race was pronounced lame soon after. With a foot problem
diagnosed and confirmed later this race at Exeter was an uninformative contest.
It should not have affected his price to such an extent, I see him as a 12/1
shot at best especially when there are murmurings that he could switch to the
Neptune on quicker ground.
