Supreme Novices Update: Christmas (Jezki, Puffin Billy and My Tent Or Yours)

The densely packed festive period offered up its usual share of brilliant racing. Kempton played its part but Leopardstown stood out with quality on show day after day with the highlight, undoubtedly, being the Lexus Chase where Tidal Bay pulled the rug from under the feet of the crème de la crème of Ireland’s staying chasers. The best Irish novice hurdlers were left to their own devices in the Grade 1 Future Champions Novice Hurdle and Jezki, who already had the strongest novice form available, came out on top in decisive fashion.

Jezki’s defeat of last season’s premier bumper horse, Champagne Fever, in the Royal Bond marked him out as the best two mile novice hurdler around. Despite jumping left handed on occasion he displayed his considerable ability and, as I mentioned in the Royal Bond piece, bookmakers were generous with their antepost prices following the race. He is now around the price he should have been after beating Champagne Fever and Zuzka, who boosted the form with a runaway victory at Leopardstown on Saturday. She clearly appreciated the step up in trip, an appreciation likely to be shared by her aforementioned stablemate.

Jezki came up against a deep field last week, with the well regarded trio of Waaheb, Sizing Rio and Bright New Dawn his main dangers. Usual partner Barry Geraghty was over at Kempton riding the great Simonsig so Robbie Power took over and with Henderson likely to offer Geraghty a choice of rides, I expect Power will take the mount in March. Jezki settled nicely off the strong pace, set by perennial front runner Sizing Rio, but once again his jumping lacked fluency through the race. In fairness, he only really lost ground at the fifth last, which he ploughed through, and it could just be his quick style is more effective than it is pleasing to the eye. Better ground may see an improvement in that department and connections have been adamant that a sounder surface is what he needs but it is worth bearing in mind. Through Thursday’s race he was always in the best position, able to track the leaders, and it was evident how well he was travelling. Power even took a pull on the home turn as he cantered all over the field, before pulling away easily on approach to the last, eventually scoring by six lengths from an unlucky Waaheb. Jessica Harrington must be thrilled with her charge and he is a worthy Supreme favourite at this stage, only something special could depose him between now and March.

As mentioned above, Waaheb was to a certain extent unlucky. It is hard to argue that he would have won the race, seeing as Jezki had any amount to spare, but there is no doubt he would have been closer without the glaring error two out. He was moving up nicely alongside the winner, while perhaps not travelling as strongly, and McCoy was keen to find a gain momentum over the hurdle but Waaheb stuttered losing the pair at least three lengths, costing them any chance of fighting out the finish with the winner. McCoy wasn’t hard on Waaheb from then on, with his innate ability allowing him to take second place comfortably from Bright New Dawn. His trainer Dermot Weld had been concerned that inexperience would find him out in this grade and, despite running well in second, it did. There must be significant improvement to come, particularly on better ground and perhaps not on such a stiff track. While it is hard to see him reversing form with Jezki this season, even with a three pound pull in the weights, pushing him out to 20/1 for the Supreme is an overreaction.

The rest of the important Supreme Novices related action came from England with a number of noteworthy performances. The first of which came from Puffin Billy at Ascot (21/12/2012), in the Grade 2 Kennel Gate Novices hurdle. Puffin Billy was immense in his two bumpers, especially under a penalty at Ascot where he cruised to victory at Ascot by nine lengths. His trainer had understandably been talking him up for a while and much was expected on his hurdling debut at Newbury. With the prevailing conditions at the moment it is a plus that Puffin Billy is able to handle, even thrive in, testing ground and this is what he did at Newbury, and even more so at Ascot. Leighton Aspell tried to settle Puffin Billy in rear of the large field at Newbury, but the pace was slow to non-existent hence he was far too keen, pulling violently for his head, eventually taking his rider to the front at the first. Aspell managed to settle him down in around third place after that, often having to be reined back at the hurdles as his jumping continuously carried him forward. On the home turn Puffin Billy inevitably tanked his way to the front, from which point he was never headed, drawing away stylishly from an unconsidered outsider and the very promising Sound Investment. Oliver Sherwood’s son of Heron Island made one slight error in the back straight and he got in close to the last once his rider let him down but otherwise his hurdling was fluent. The same could not be said once upped in class at Ascot but the end result was just as impressive, if not more so.

With Leighton Aspell serving his ban Geraghty took over the ride on Puffin Billy, he had ridden him previously on his last visit to Ascot in the bumper. There were only four runners in this grade 2 and Puffin Billy was the odds on favourite. He was expected to win easily, and with market rival Meganisi disappointing it would have been surprising had he not. Despite this, one could not fail to be taken with the way he never came off the bridle, Geraghty hardly flinched. This time on heavy ground (Newbury was only soft), Puffin Billy again moved sweetly, he was nothing like as keen as at Newbury, allowing Geraghty time to track the other runners and make his move when necessary. In last of four for most of the trip, Puffin Billy appeared as if he wasn’t concentrating at most of his hurdles. Apart from the second flight, he got in close to each of the first six with his worst leap coming at the sixth. This may have focussed his mind as he jumped the last three well, displaying an aptitude for jumping. It is also possible that by pulling him out from last place, Geraghty allowed him a better sight of his hurdles. I would not be overly concerned with his hurdling, as the technique seems to be there and he is another powerful sort who should improve with a faster pace. In a soft or heavy ground Supreme he would be formidable but those are the only scenarios in which we could see Puffin Billy in the festival’s opening race as Oliver Sherwood has already pointed to a possible step up in trip for his next start in a race on Cheltenham Trials day. He may prefer to stick to two miles at Haydock but I see no reason why he won’t stay the extra distance, in which case I expect him to win at the end of January forcing connections down the Neptune path. Ground will apparently dictate his festival target, yet on trials day it will still be soft, at least, therefore, if he takes up his Cheltenham engagement, only a mishap of some sort looks likely to prevent his target being over 2m5f.

Boxing Day saw Long Run nearly fluff his lines and last season’s Supreme runner-up Darlan rout his opposition, sending himself to the head of the Champion Hurdle market. These rightly took the headlines but the day opened with dominant display from River Maigue. His previous race clearly did not suit him and for a hurdling debut it was extremely encouraging. In discussing it here at the time I felt that he was likely to prove superior to his conqueror, Dodging Bullets, despite receiving seven pounds and I still stand by that, with this run going some way to proving that. Dodging Bullets ran respectably in third behind Darlan in the Grade 1 Christmas Hurdle on the same day but that was a race ostensibly of last season’s two mile novices, a crop that I felt were below average. He does not look like a Supreme Novices winner to me and, despite River Maigue boosting his form so comprehensively, the race at Cheltenham was won by his jockey and once the festival arrives I suspect he will lack the class to compete.

River Maigue, on the other hand, showed tremendous class in bumpers and proved he was high class at Kempton by defeating last season’s Champion Bumper second, New Year’s Eve by seven lengths, despite getting hampered exiting the final bend. Jumping exuberantly throughout, he was nimble when he got in close and jumped boldly at other times. River Maigue showed what scope he has, a likely Arkle/Jewson contender next season, and he should improve again on his next start. I have been a fan of this horse since I saw him in the paddock at Ascot before his bumper debut and the Supreme Novices looks on his agenda. I am sure he will show up well, particularly with his crisp jumping, but there is just something about the way he travels and finishes his races that suggests to me he will be even better over further. While we are unlikely to see that theory tested at Cheltenham I imagine he will follow in the footsteps of Spirit Son, also owned by Michael Buckley, who ran a brilliant race to finish second in the Supreme before bolting up over four furlongs further at Aintree. River Maigue handled the heavy ground at Kempton with aplomb so a very soft festival would benefit him with the race shaping up to be full of speed balls hoping for better ground. A normal festival picture would leave him just lacking in the pace department I fear, but I would expect him to be flying home at the death, quite possibly into a place. Either way the 14/1 available looks about right, with the win on Boxing Day looking solid form.

As usual this season, Nicky Henderson is awash with novice hurdle talent and the best of those, according to him, at the start of the season was My Tent Or Yours. On his first start over hurdles he impressively dealt with the promising, Jonjo O’Neill trained, French recruit Taquin Du Seuil despite jumping sloppily. On Taquin Du Seuil’s next start he picked up a grade 2 at Sandown on the bridle. This eye-catching form boost caused My Tent Or Yours’ price for the Supreme to contract significantly, halving to 10/1 in many places. This seemed a bit hasty until Taquin Du Seuil followed up the grade 2 with a convincing grade 1 victory in The Challow novices’ hurdle on Saturday at Newbury. On the same card My Tent Or Yours was ready to make his second appearance over hurdles despite the heavy ground being a huge concern for connections. Sent off at 4/11 most people expected another convincing success for McCoy (he rode Taquin Du Seuil as well earlier in the day). Most people probably didn’t include the trainer, unfortunately for his supporters, as his other runner in the race revelled in the mud and collected the prize in decisive fashion. Chatterbox had won his only bumper narrowly, but being a son of Poliglote he was expected to take to conditions and he did so in the manner of a smart horse. Henderson does not see him as a Cheltenham horse therefore a Supreme bid is obviously out of the question but a change of heart, to which Mr Henderson is occasionally susceptible, and soft ground could bring him right into the equation if this form is taken literally.

However, taking this form literally would be dangerous as My Tent Or Yours failed to show his true ability. He was keen at Ascot and had been keen in all his previous races, consequently McCoy tried to get him settled by holding him up off the pace, some distance behind the leaders. Bar one slight blemish at the third, My Tent Or Yours jumped accurately, showing important progress had been made in that department, and, as he moved easily through the race, his rider seemed happy turning into the straight as it looked only a matter of time before he picked off those ahead. McCoy sat still all the way up the straight until the last, while Geraghty had been pushing his mount along for a while. On approach to the last My Tent Or Yours steadied whereas Chatterbox flew it and came away running. The race was as good as over then, with an insurmountable gap for My Tent Or Yours to make up. The idea had clearly been to win as snugly as possible if at all on My Tent Or Yours in order to avoid a hard race in the conditions. He could not quite come out on top with such a talented rival enjoying the ground but I haven’t lost any faith in this son of Desert Prince as the major concern with his last performance was his jumping, which was solid here, and he was less keen showing he is maturing and learning with experience. If he can find better ground, even soft should be fine for him, then he should show his true colours. I expect he will be ridden with slightly less restraint from now on as in both his starts this season he has not shown the instant acceleration which seemed likely. My Tent Or Yours might not be the most straightforward ride but he is certainly talented and I fancy next time we will see another performance to justify his position near the head of the Supreme Market, a position he lost this weekend.

Happy New Year!

Supreme Novices 2013 update: Waaheb, Sizing Rio & Pique Sous

The last week has seen a number of prospective Cheltenham bound novice hurdlers deliver credible performances. While in this country we’ve been light on potential Supreme Novice Hurdlers, Ireland has thrown up a few.

The highly anticipated hurdling debut of the top class bumper horse Waaheb came last Tuesday and he displayed all the attributes which made him such a potent force in National Hunt flat races. In January 2011 he won his first bumper, in February his second and in April his third. On each occasion he won easily marking him out as Ireland’s best prospect in that sphere and it was almost inevitable that, having previously been owned by trainer Dermot Weld’s son, he would be purchased by JP McManus. In his colours he stepped up in class, skipping the likely stamina test of the Cheltenham’s Champion Bumper, and took in in the Punchestown Festival’s Champion I.N.H Flat Race. Waaheb was sent off the 15/8 favourite and up until that point he had been vastly superior to those he had faced, but this time he met his match in Lovethehigherlaw, who was Willie Mullins’s best bumper horse that season. At the end of an epic battle up Punchestown’s home straight Willie Mullins son of Presenting ultimately outstayed Dermot Weld’s charge. The untimely demise of Lovethehigherlaw robbed him of a bright future over obstacles and it was left to Waaheb give us a sense of what might have been.

Almost immediately after the race Waaheb was made favourite, in most antepost lists, for the 2012 Supreme Novices’ Hurdle, remaining in that position until it was sadly confirmed that injury had ruled him out for the season. Seemingly unconcerned by his injury bookmakers once again put him in as antepost favourite, before he jumped a hurdle in public, for the 2013 version. Waaheb’s latent talent was there for all to see in bumpers, the question was whether he could carry over this talent to the hurdling game. The signs from his seasonal reappearance at Fairyhouse are generally good.

Having settled well in last place for Mark Walsh he took on the first flight and, almost certainly due to his inexperience, he dived at it. This was, in reality, of little concern and somewhat in response to that he ballooned the second. After these early sighters he jumped efficiently, only jumping left when forced to by Coldstonesober, never losing ground on the leaders. Unsurprisingly for a horse that showed so much class in bumpers, Waaheb travelled strongly throughout and as he picked off his opponents one by one there was never a question who the winner would be. As he approached the last, upsides a couple of others, it seemed a comfortable victory was on the cards. Following a decent final jump, he was shaken up and put in a burst of acceleration taking him away from the field posting an even more impressive performance than looked likely, winning by six-and-a-half lengths. This performance showed that his injury and time off has not dented his pace, pace that many of his subsequent rivals will lack. He jumped well enough for a debut and there is little doubt that he will improve significantly from this race. Whether he will show his true ability when stepped up in grade later in the season on heavy ground is up for debate. What is not up for debate is that he is a novice hurdler with abundant promise, and with the anticipated progress from his debut he is one to be feared by all.

Just one race before Waaheb’s hurdling debut was a maiden hurdle restricted to four-year-olds and it is possible we saw another Supreme contender in that contest. This was a performance that has gone under the radar due to its proximity to Waaheb’s comeback, but it was no less impressive.

Sizing Rio began his career winning a point-to-point at Bennettsbridge by three lengths. It is difficult to know what he achieved there but, interestingly, in third that day was Clondaw Kaempfer who went on to win a valuable and competitive Fairyhouse bumper before moving to Donald McCain, for whom he won a novices’ hurdle impressively on Sunday.

On his first run under rules for Henry De Bromhead and the Potts Family, Sizing Rio disappointed. He was fancied to run well in a good four-year-old bumper at the Punchestown festival but he weakened tamely. It was assumed that back over obstacles he would be a different proposition and this was the case. He started second favourite behind Noel Meade’s Cops And Robbers. Cops And Robbers had been useful on the flat for Sir Michael Stoute (sold for £125,000) and had shaped well on his hurdling debut in Grade 3 so this was no easy task.

Positioned in second for most of the race, Sizing Rio jumped quickly and accurately, his technique improving as the race progressed. He was tracked throughout by major market rival Cops And Robbers and once tearaway leader Strategic Bid fell by the wayside it looked as if this son of Heron Island might have severe competition from Noel Meade’s charge. However, it soon became apparent that Sizing Rio was maintaining his advantage over Cops And Robbers and the race was put beyond doubt as he quickened around the home turn while the runner-up was struggling to keep him in sight. The final winning distance was eighteen lengths and there was a further eighteen back to the third. It may be argued that the form is weak but before the race Cops And Robbers was thought of as good hurdling prospect and I have no reason to doubt that, especially when one considers the fact that he has already won since, at Wexford on Sunday. There are few better in Ireland at producing Cheltenham horses than Henry De Bromhead and in Sizing Rio, who barely came off the bridle to achieve this demolition, jumping with alacrity and showing no lack of pace, he could have another one.

At the end of the last National Hunt season Pique Sous would have been at the forefront of many people’s minds when considering candidates for next (now this) season’s Supreme Novices. After a promising run on debut, in the valuable sales bumper at Fairyhouse, in April 2011 he was not seen out again until February of this year at Leopardstown. At Leopardstown he won impressively, displaying a turn of foot rarely seen in Irish bumpers. He then went to the Champion Bumper at Cheltenham, supposedly, as Mullins’ best chance in the race. While he cantered all over his stablemate and resulting winner Champagne Fever, he was just outstayed and could manage only third. Mullins was keen to get more experience into him and therefore ran him three more times in National Hunt flat races during the summer, winning twice, before commencing his hurdling campaign at Cork in late August.

There was little doubt beforehand that Pique Sous would win on his hurdling debut and he was sent off at 1/3 but racing is, of course, never that simple and he failed to hold off Ted Dolly losing out by 2¾ lengths. He was far too free on that day pulling hard, giving himself little chance to finish strongly. Some suggested it was his jumping that let him down on this occasion and to a small extent I agree. It was deliberate at times, early on, but it was not causing him to lose ground. The crucial error came at the fourth last, where he severely pecked on landing, but this was mainly due to a horse in front jumping across him leaving unsighted. This clearly worried the son of Martaline as he ploughed through the next hurdle before his jockey, Emmet Mullins, finally let him stride on and he jumped the last beautifully. Unfortunately for connections, he just had nothing left to fend off the fast finishing winner.

On Wednesday, Pique Sous came out again at Thurles and connections were hoping he could redeem himself. The major concern from his hurdling debut was his keenness and to counter this, a change of tactics was employed by Ruby Walsh. Willie Mullins’ five-year-old was always likely to benefit from his hurdling bow, but setting off in front definitely made a difference. Pique Sous largely had an uncontested lead at Thurles and until a mistake at the fourth last he held a 3 or length cushion allowing him to settle in front. He was still keen enough through the race, although not to the extent of his previous racecourse experience, but despite the one aforementioned blunder he jumped noticeably well, thereby forcing his opposition to put in the extra effort which ultimately told. Rounding the final bend the field were closer than at any point during the race yet this time Pique Sous was able to pull away from his pursuers, posting a five length victory in the process.

Willie Mullins pointed out after the race that his is a horse that needs decent ground and he may be aimed at the Open Meeting at Cheltenham in November. This will be a real test for him as he will find it tougher to make all, if these are the tactics they employ again, and if he runs too free again the higher class of opposition, along with the stiff Cheltenham finish, could find him out. If Pique Sous does learn to settle though, and allows himself to be dropped in and ridden for the speed he showed in bumpers, he will be a force to be reckoned with. I do not share the concerns of many about his jumping, as it looks to me like the faster they go the better he jumps, and there aren’t too many slow Supremes.