Supreme Novices Update: Christmas (Jezki, Puffin Billy and My Tent Or Yours)

The densely packed festive period offered up its usual share of brilliant racing. Kempton played its part but Leopardstown stood out with quality on show day after day with the highlight, undoubtedly, being the Lexus Chase where Tidal Bay pulled the rug from under the feet of the crème de la crème of Ireland’s staying chasers. The best Irish novice hurdlers were left to their own devices in the Grade 1 Future Champions Novice Hurdle and Jezki, who already had the strongest novice form available, came out on top in decisive fashion.

Jezki’s defeat of last season’s premier bumper horse, Champagne Fever, in the Royal Bond marked him out as the best two mile novice hurdler around. Despite jumping left handed on occasion he displayed his considerable ability and, as I mentioned in the Royal Bond piece, bookmakers were generous with their antepost prices following the race. He is now around the price he should have been after beating Champagne Fever and Zuzka, who boosted the form with a runaway victory at Leopardstown on Saturday. She clearly appreciated the step up in trip, an appreciation likely to be shared by her aforementioned stablemate.

Jezki came up against a deep field last week, with the well regarded trio of Waaheb, Sizing Rio and Bright New Dawn his main dangers. Usual partner Barry Geraghty was over at Kempton riding the great Simonsig so Robbie Power took over and with Henderson likely to offer Geraghty a choice of rides, I expect Power will take the mount in March. Jezki settled nicely off the strong pace, set by perennial front runner Sizing Rio, but once again his jumping lacked fluency through the race. In fairness, he only really lost ground at the fifth last, which he ploughed through, and it could just be his quick style is more effective than it is pleasing to the eye. Better ground may see an improvement in that department and connections have been adamant that a sounder surface is what he needs but it is worth bearing in mind. Through Thursday’s race he was always in the best position, able to track the leaders, and it was evident how well he was travelling. Power even took a pull on the home turn as he cantered all over the field, before pulling away easily on approach to the last, eventually scoring by six lengths from an unlucky Waaheb. Jessica Harrington must be thrilled with her charge and he is a worthy Supreme favourite at this stage, only something special could depose him between now and March.

As mentioned above, Waaheb was to a certain extent unlucky. It is hard to argue that he would have won the race, seeing as Jezki had any amount to spare, but there is no doubt he would have been closer without the glaring error two out. He was moving up nicely alongside the winner, while perhaps not travelling as strongly, and McCoy was keen to find a gain momentum over the hurdle but Waaheb stuttered losing the pair at least three lengths, costing them any chance of fighting out the finish with the winner. McCoy wasn’t hard on Waaheb from then on, with his innate ability allowing him to take second place comfortably from Bright New Dawn. His trainer Dermot Weld had been concerned that inexperience would find him out in this grade and, despite running well in second, it did. There must be significant improvement to come, particularly on better ground and perhaps not on such a stiff track. While it is hard to see him reversing form with Jezki this season, even with a three pound pull in the weights, pushing him out to 20/1 for the Supreme is an overreaction.

The rest of the important Supreme Novices related action came from England with a number of noteworthy performances. The first of which came from Puffin Billy at Ascot (21/12/2012), in the Grade 2 Kennel Gate Novices hurdle. Puffin Billy was immense in his two bumpers, especially under a penalty at Ascot where he cruised to victory at Ascot by nine lengths. His trainer had understandably been talking him up for a while and much was expected on his hurdling debut at Newbury. With the prevailing conditions at the moment it is a plus that Puffin Billy is able to handle, even thrive in, testing ground and this is what he did at Newbury, and even more so at Ascot. Leighton Aspell tried to settle Puffin Billy in rear of the large field at Newbury, but the pace was slow to non-existent hence he was far too keen, pulling violently for his head, eventually taking his rider to the front at the first. Aspell managed to settle him down in around third place after that, often having to be reined back at the hurdles as his jumping continuously carried him forward. On the home turn Puffin Billy inevitably tanked his way to the front, from which point he was never headed, drawing away stylishly from an unconsidered outsider and the very promising Sound Investment. Oliver Sherwood’s son of Heron Island made one slight error in the back straight and he got in close to the last once his rider let him down but otherwise his hurdling was fluent. The same could not be said once upped in class at Ascot but the end result was just as impressive, if not more so.

With Leighton Aspell serving his ban Geraghty took over the ride on Puffin Billy, he had ridden him previously on his last visit to Ascot in the bumper. There were only four runners in this grade 2 and Puffin Billy was the odds on favourite. He was expected to win easily, and with market rival Meganisi disappointing it would have been surprising had he not. Despite this, one could not fail to be taken with the way he never came off the bridle, Geraghty hardly flinched. This time on heavy ground (Newbury was only soft), Puffin Billy again moved sweetly, he was nothing like as keen as at Newbury, allowing Geraghty time to track the other runners and make his move when necessary. In last of four for most of the trip, Puffin Billy appeared as if he wasn’t concentrating at most of his hurdles. Apart from the second flight, he got in close to each of the first six with his worst leap coming at the sixth. This may have focussed his mind as he jumped the last three well, displaying an aptitude for jumping. It is also possible that by pulling him out from last place, Geraghty allowed him a better sight of his hurdles. I would not be overly concerned with his hurdling, as the technique seems to be there and he is another powerful sort who should improve with a faster pace. In a soft or heavy ground Supreme he would be formidable but those are the only scenarios in which we could see Puffin Billy in the festival’s opening race as Oliver Sherwood has already pointed to a possible step up in trip for his next start in a race on Cheltenham Trials day. He may prefer to stick to two miles at Haydock but I see no reason why he won’t stay the extra distance, in which case I expect him to win at the end of January forcing connections down the Neptune path. Ground will apparently dictate his festival target, yet on trials day it will still be soft, at least, therefore, if he takes up his Cheltenham engagement, only a mishap of some sort looks likely to prevent his target being over 2m5f.

Boxing Day saw Long Run nearly fluff his lines and last season’s Supreme runner-up Darlan rout his opposition, sending himself to the head of the Champion Hurdle market. These rightly took the headlines but the day opened with dominant display from River Maigue. His previous race clearly did not suit him and for a hurdling debut it was extremely encouraging. In discussing it here at the time I felt that he was likely to prove superior to his conqueror, Dodging Bullets, despite receiving seven pounds and I still stand by that, with this run going some way to proving that. Dodging Bullets ran respectably in third behind Darlan in the Grade 1 Christmas Hurdle on the same day but that was a race ostensibly of last season’s two mile novices, a crop that I felt were below average. He does not look like a Supreme Novices winner to me and, despite River Maigue boosting his form so comprehensively, the race at Cheltenham was won by his jockey and once the festival arrives I suspect he will lack the class to compete.

River Maigue, on the other hand, showed tremendous class in bumpers and proved he was high class at Kempton by defeating last season’s Champion Bumper second, New Year’s Eve by seven lengths, despite getting hampered exiting the final bend. Jumping exuberantly throughout, he was nimble when he got in close and jumped boldly at other times. River Maigue showed what scope he has, a likely Arkle/Jewson contender next season, and he should improve again on his next start. I have been a fan of this horse since I saw him in the paddock at Ascot before his bumper debut and the Supreme Novices looks on his agenda. I am sure he will show up well, particularly with his crisp jumping, but there is just something about the way he travels and finishes his races that suggests to me he will be even better over further. While we are unlikely to see that theory tested at Cheltenham I imagine he will follow in the footsteps of Spirit Son, also owned by Michael Buckley, who ran a brilliant race to finish second in the Supreme before bolting up over four furlongs further at Aintree. River Maigue handled the heavy ground at Kempton with aplomb so a very soft festival would benefit him with the race shaping up to be full of speed balls hoping for better ground. A normal festival picture would leave him just lacking in the pace department I fear, but I would expect him to be flying home at the death, quite possibly into a place. Either way the 14/1 available looks about right, with the win on Boxing Day looking solid form.

As usual this season, Nicky Henderson is awash with novice hurdle talent and the best of those, according to him, at the start of the season was My Tent Or Yours. On his first start over hurdles he impressively dealt with the promising, Jonjo O’Neill trained, French recruit Taquin Du Seuil despite jumping sloppily. On Taquin Du Seuil’s next start he picked up a grade 2 at Sandown on the bridle. This eye-catching form boost caused My Tent Or Yours’ price for the Supreme to contract significantly, halving to 10/1 in many places. This seemed a bit hasty until Taquin Du Seuil followed up the grade 2 with a convincing grade 1 victory in The Challow novices’ hurdle on Saturday at Newbury. On the same card My Tent Or Yours was ready to make his second appearance over hurdles despite the heavy ground being a huge concern for connections. Sent off at 4/11 most people expected another convincing success for McCoy (he rode Taquin Du Seuil as well earlier in the day). Most people probably didn’t include the trainer, unfortunately for his supporters, as his other runner in the race revelled in the mud and collected the prize in decisive fashion. Chatterbox had won his only bumper narrowly, but being a son of Poliglote he was expected to take to conditions and he did so in the manner of a smart horse. Henderson does not see him as a Cheltenham horse therefore a Supreme bid is obviously out of the question but a change of heart, to which Mr Henderson is occasionally susceptible, and soft ground could bring him right into the equation if this form is taken literally.

However, taking this form literally would be dangerous as My Tent Or Yours failed to show his true ability. He was keen at Ascot and had been keen in all his previous races, consequently McCoy tried to get him settled by holding him up off the pace, some distance behind the leaders. Bar one slight blemish at the third, My Tent Or Yours jumped accurately, showing important progress had been made in that department, and, as he moved easily through the race, his rider seemed happy turning into the straight as it looked only a matter of time before he picked off those ahead. McCoy sat still all the way up the straight until the last, while Geraghty had been pushing his mount along for a while. On approach to the last My Tent Or Yours steadied whereas Chatterbox flew it and came away running. The race was as good as over then, with an insurmountable gap for My Tent Or Yours to make up. The idea had clearly been to win as snugly as possible if at all on My Tent Or Yours in order to avoid a hard race in the conditions. He could not quite come out on top with such a talented rival enjoying the ground but I haven’t lost any faith in this son of Desert Prince as the major concern with his last performance was his jumping, which was solid here, and he was less keen showing he is maturing and learning with experience. If he can find better ground, even soft should be fine for him, then he should show his true colours. I expect he will be ridden with slightly less restraint from now on as in both his starts this season he has not shown the instant acceleration which seemed likely. My Tent Or Yours might not be the most straightforward ride but he is certainly talented and I fancy next time we will see another performance to justify his position near the head of the Supreme Market, a position he lost this weekend.

Happy New Year!

Supreme Novices Update: Opus Energy Novices' Hurdle (Grade 2) review

The third race of Cheltenham’s Open Meeting 2012 had, since the entry stage, looked like a key pointer to the upcoming novice hurdle events over two miles with most of the entries promising much either, last season, the start of this season, or both. Once the declarations had been made it appeared we were in prospect for a highly informative clash that was bound to have a significant bearing on the, all important, Supreme Novices’ Hurdle 2013.

There is no doubt we saw a group of high class novice hurdlers that, in all likelihood, will make up into horses capable of challenging in March, but whether we learned the respective merits of the runners in this race is another matter. The main problem, that had been alluded to beforehand, was a lack of pace. The race was full of horses in need of the experience or with concerns over their ability to settle; therefore nearly every runner’s ideal conditions were a fast run race in which they could settle in behind, receiving cover. As a result, nothing wanted to make the running leaving the bizarre situation where the tapes went up and it was nearly 15 seconds before the race actually began.

With Dodging Bullets having already had one season over hurdles and bearing in mind his convincing victory at the track last time, Ruby Walsh was reluctantly willing to set the pace on him. Walsh took the field along at a very sedate pace leaving a number in behind pulling for their heads, most notably Duke Of Navan who nearly pulled his way to the front rounding the first bend out of the home straight. Dodging Bullets settled well enough in front, largely jumped well, and, after Walsh bunched the field up one final time coming down the hill, he quickened smartly using all the advantage he had gained through the race to best effect, consequently running out a 1½ length winner. If there was going to be any danger to him it would have been following his mistake at the last but it lost him little, if any, ground and he was in fact quicker over the obstacle than the second.

There was strong support for Paul Nicholls’ charge before Friday’s race but I had question marks over him. He had won an extremely weak race at the previous Cheltenham meeting and he was up against high class horses here, from the flat and bumpers, for example, Court Minstrel who had won more decisively in a stronger race on the same day at Cheltenham’s October meeting. Although, on the back of Dodging Bullet’s first season over hurdles he had every right to be favourite, particularly when one reflected on his run in the Triumph Hurdle. With this win under his belt over seemingly decent opposition he should look a very appealing prospect for the Supreme, especially with his trainer showing so much faith in him that he is being considered for the Christmas Hurdle. The way the race panned out is just as likely to have inconvenienced Dodging Bullets as any other horse in the race and this is the point his connections and supporters will focus on going forward as he won in spite of the race being unsuitable. I take the view that in the end this was a farce of a race which was far less informative than it promised to be. I failed to see enough from the winner to dispel the doubts I previously held and would be willing to look past him at this stage for the 2013 Supreme Novices.

I was far more taken with the performances of the second and third, both of whom I would rather have on my side going forward. Second behind Dodging Bullets was River Maigue, who was making his hurdling debut in this Grade 2. This is hugely significant primarily because it shows the high esteem in which he is held by trainer Nicky Henderson, who has any number of high class novice hurdlers in his care, including My Tent Or Yours who was entered in this race at the five day stage. River Maigue, an impressive point-to-point winner, started his career for Nicky Henderson in one of last season’s best bumpers at Ascot where he was beaten into third by Royal Guardsman and Atlantic Roller, having pulled hard for most of the race. He then went on to the bumper at Ayr on Scottish Grand National day which Nicky Henderson had won for the previous two years, once with Sprinter Sacre, and River Maigue was impressive having again been keen early on, this time picking up well when asked. I was taken by this performance and he was one of the novice hurdle prospects I was most excited by this season and all my enthusiasm for him is intact after Friday, despite getting beaten.

As the horse had had issues settling early on in the past Barry Geraghty was keen to find him cover at Cheltenham once the race finally started. He settled River Maigue as well as he could in behind Magic Star up the straight before pulling himself alongside Magic Star on the exit of the first bend. The Zagreb gelding kept taking himself forward until he was nearly alongside Dodging Bullets before a slow jump at the fourth intervened. Geraghty was happy enough to give the front runner a three length lead and it was only a prodigious leap at the third last which took him alongside Ruby Walsh’s mount. Another sound jump two out put him there with a winning chance but on approach to the final turn he couldn’t match the instant acceleration from the flat bred, race fit, experienced rival, thereby losing the ground he had made up at the third last. He was quickly shoved along to regain the ground but could only stay on up the hill with the easy lead handed to the winner proving crucial.

Also crucial was River Maigue’s lack of fitness. This was his first run of the season and he is entitled to come on for it but in the paddock he certainly looked as if he was carrying some excess weight, Henderson suggested afterwards that his bay gelding had done a little too well over the summer. With this run under his, hopefully looser, belt he should improve considerably and I would not be in the least surprised were he to reverse the form with the winner even without the 7lb weight concession he received here. River Maigue is a horse with class and should prove himself very smart in a strongly run two miles. He jumps and travels so well that he could make up into a serious contender for the Supreme but as a convincing winner of his point-to-point over three miles he could also be even better over further. As an individual, he is well made with enough scope to make a high class chaser and the way he jumps his hurdles suggests this could be where we eventually see him at his very best, he does remind me very much of Finian’s Rainbow.

In third behind Dodging Bullets was the hard luck story of the race, Court Minstrel. If the race had panned out slightly differently, even off this ultra slow pace, I suspect he would have won and he comes out with a huge amount of credit. Evan Williams’ excitable son of Court Cave came into the race off the back of a striking victory over course and distance in October and the form of that race has worked out reasonably well with the second and sixth winning since, while fourth, fifth and seventh have been placed. Court Minstrel has been an excessively free-going sort throughout his time with Evan Williams and it would appear that he must be dropped out in rear in order to settle. These tactics resulted in him being most inconvenienced by the farcical nature of the contest, yet it was not just the ground he had to make up and the lack of a decent gallop which cost him here. Having managed to settle well in behind, Court Minstrel jumped fluently through the race and his rider, Paul Maloney, guided him into contention approaching the last. Unfortunately for him Magic Spear just jumped across in front, leaving him unsighted at the final hurdle, causing a mistake and a collision which cost Paul Maloney’s mount ground, momentum (just as he was quickening) and, crucially, race position. Court Minstrel then had to recover and it took him a few strides to organise himself, but once he did he flew up the hill passing Magic Spear and Duke Of Navan in the process. Without such interference I am confident that he would have been at worst second. With all his attributes and a new found maturity, in that he has finally learnt to settle, Court Minstrel looks tailor-made for the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle and if forced to have an antepost bet on something from Friday’s race it would be on him.

Tominator

Of the rest of the field behind Dodging Bullets, Duke Of Navan shaped the best, finishing just half-a-length behind Court Minstrel. He had strong bumper form, including behind River Maigue where, just like on Friday, he pulled himself to the front rounding the first bend. If he learns to settle he can put in more high class displays akin to his hurdling debut. Joint second favourite for this Supreme trial was Tominator. A talented stayer on the flat, he started his hurdling career at Bangor where he won decisively but his hurdling was far from fluent as was the case here. He also had a fast pace to run at that day ,set up by a stablemate, and he looks one for handicaps over further as his jumping inadequacies will find him out at this level.

Supreme Novices Update 2012/13: Court Minstrel and Dodging Bullets

With the first Cheltenham meeting already done with, I felt it appropriate to begin this season’s quest to identify the premier two-mile novice hurdler of the season. Sadly, for many like-minded individuals including myself, last season’s version, Simonsig, ended up running over 2m5f in The Neptune Investment Management Novices’ Hurdle. Again, this season I would prefer to see Simonsig displaying his undoubted prowess at two miles over hurdles but once again it seems I will be, to some extent, disappointed as Nicky Henderson is apparently leaning towards a chasing campaign. While I fully expect the former point-to-pointer to be ultra-successful over fences it is a shame that he is unlikely to be aimed at the Champion Hurdle, a race that looks his for the taking.

Unsurprisingly, Nicky Henderson has yet another strong team of prospective novice hurdlers this term but it was Evan Williams and Paul Nicholls who supplied this weekend’s early (very early) Supreme Novices contenders.

Lemington Maiden Hurdle

At Cheltenham on Friday twelve horses went to post in what appeared to be a competitive novices’ hurdle. The favourite was Population who had twice won bumpers impressively at Ascot before finishing sixth in the Aintree Champion bumper. However, it was a horse that finished two places in front of Population at Aintree that took the race and he won it impressively.

Court Minstrel had shown progressive form in bumpers prior to his Aintree fourth. Following a convincing victory at Ludlow, he finished a close second (also at Ludlow) to Tistory. Tistory will surely be one of Nicky Henderson’s most exciting novice hurdlers this season and Court Minstrel was arguably an unlucky loser in a contest where the front pair pulled well clear of the third. This was the first indication of the significant ability he possessed. Another return to Ludlow saw him pull off an eleven length demolition of his rivals and connections of this attractive son of Court Cave were understandably tempted by Aintree.

At Aintree Evan Williams’ charge was held up early in nineteenth of nineteen before gradually making his way through the pack to look threatening before not quite seeing out the 2m1f trip. In the end it turned into a stamina test with The New One, a potentially exceptional staying hurdler, coming out on top.

On that form Court Minstrel had every right to win Friday’s race and he did so in a manner which suggested he could be in contention for the big prize come March. As is his style, Court Minstrel was again dropped out in last place by Paul Moloney. Jumping neatly throughout, Court Minstrel travelled noticeably strongly, even on occasion pulling for his head, and soon after jumping the fourth last his rider let out an inch of rein to move through a swiftly closing gap. This was potentially the most impressive part of the race as he had passed four horses in just a couple of strides. From then on Paul Moloney kept having to pull him back in order to contain his effort for the finish and he remained firmly on the bridle until shaken up just after the last at which point he stormed up the Cheltenham hill pulling nearly 4 lengths clear of The Romford Pele.

This was as encouraging a hurdling debut as one could expect. He looks to have plenty of scope and there must be significant improvement in him as he is still struggling to completely settle. A large field and fast pace are likely to be his optimum conditions but as he gains experience he should become more amenable. There is the danger of overrating this performance as on face value it looks to be more about style than substance. His main rival in the race was supposed to be Population but his rider, Denis O’Regan, was unhappy some way out and he had to be pulled up with something clearly amiss. The Romford Pele had marked himself out as a good prospect with a seventh place finish in the Cheltenham Champion Bumper, just one place behind the winner of Aintree’s equivalent The New One, but he had been beaten at odds-on at Market Rasen on hurdling debut and at Cheltenham he handed any advantage he had over to Court Minstrel with a sloppy jump at the last. In third was Titan De Sarti, who has largely been disappointing in his career to date and merely stayed on here suggesting a step up in trip is the next logical step.

Despite the lack of substance, the style of Court Minstrel’s win was particularly exciting and the strength of his bumper form suggests he is certainly a novice hurdler worth bearing in mind for the Supreme as the season progresses.

Masterson Holdings Hurdle

In contrast to the jumps bred Court Minstrel, who had learnt his trade in bumpers, Dodging Bullets was bred by Frankie Dettori for the flat. By Dubawi, he was in training with Andrew Oliver where he managed to win twice on the level before being bought to go juvenile hurdling. Placed in the care of champion trainer Paul Nicholls he had three runs last season, showing distinct promise in two of them, and his trainer had described him as the best maiden hurdler in training.

On his hurdling debut in the Grade 2 Dovecote at Kempton Dodging Bullets came up against Grumeti, a leading Triumph Hurdle fancy at the time he had already won twice and fallen once when victory was certain. Dodging Bullets finished only 1½ lengths behind Grumeti in the end having shown signs of his evident inexperience. His second start was at the Cheltenham Festival in the Triumph Hurdle where he showed the benefit of his first race over hurdles by finishing fourth, only a head behind Grumeti this time. He travelled well before only failing for lack of stamina in the gruelling test that last season’s Triumph became. It is sensible to ignore his final start of last season at Aintree as he was badly hampered and was possibly feeling the effects of a long flat season in 2011 followed by three relatively quick hard races over hurdles.

He has been leading fancy for the 2013 Supreme Novices ever since and his seasonal debut was highly anticipated. He was heavily backed on his first start over hurdles out of graded company, and in a sense he delivered what he promised with an emphatic 8 length win but there are niggling doubts left over him.

During the first part of the race Dodging Bullets pulled hard but that is understandable as he is still lightly raced over hurdles and this was a small field which was taken along at a slow pace. As the race developed and the pace quickened he eventually settled ok in behind the leading pair of Hi Note and second favourite Baby Mix. On the whole he jumped fluently but at the fourth last he was slow and suddenly there appeared to be a significant gap between him and the leaders. For a brief moment he looked in trouble but Ruby Walsh asked for extra effort and Dodging Bullets responded well. From then on each time Ruby asked Dodging Bullets to make ground he did so quickly. He reached the last upsides Hi Note, took it well, and powered clear up the hill. Paul Nicholls was keen to point out after the race that this four-year-old Dubawi gelding had had a breathing operation over the summer and would improve for the run.

The principle danger to Dodging Bullets beforehand looked to be Baby Mix but he again finished tamely into third having travelled well. He was giving Dodging Bullets 8lbs and may have needed the run but there must be serious concerns over his temperament and or soundness now. The second placed Hi Note is a tough, improving filly over hurdles and the form of her recent Stratford romp was boosted at Kempton on Sunday but one would hope that in future Dodging Bullets would be capable of brushing her aside more easily if he is to take high rank amongst the novice hurdlers. He had to be pushed by Ruby Walsh to make ground a number of times during the race and for him to be thought of as a really strong Supreme contender I would prefer to see him make these moves on the bridle. He may have hit a flat spot on Saturday, such a characteristic could be terminal in higher quality contests, but this may also just be a fitness issue, as Nicholls pointed out he should “be better for the experience”, in which case it is important not to judge him too harshly on the somewhat laboured style of this victory. Dodging Bullets may look a completely different proposition on his next start.