Supreme Novices Update: Melodic Rendezvous, Pont Alexandre and Don Cossack

Last week felt somewhat light on potential Supreme Novice hurdlers, with, probably, the most informative race in that sphere coming at Cheltenham on Friday. Village Vic was made favourite primarily on the back of his useful looking second behind The New One at Cheltenham’s Showcase meeting in October and on the assumption that a drop back in trip in bad ground would see improvement from him. Unfortunately for connections, just like when behind Coneygree at Cheltenham’s Open meeting in November, Village Vic was a no show leaving those behind him in the market to fight it out.

On bumper form alone Melodic Rendezvous deserved to be favourite, following a saunter to victory round Chepstow he finished a good, but distant, second to Champagne Fever in Punchestown’s Champion Bumper, crucially, on heavy ground. It was also heavy ground at Cheltenham and there were doubts about most of his opponents in such testing conditions, yet it was still significantly less testing than Melodic Rendezvous had faced at Punchestown. It was strange then that his trainer, Jeremy Scott, made public his concerns over the ground and, although it could be put down to most trainers’ natural cautiousness, that must have contributed to him starting as big as 4/1, that, along with his previous start over hurdles at Exeter. There, he was seemingly beaten by a highly useful prospect in Mr Mole, but he was well beaten next time leaving some doubt over the form, despite the third winning on his next start. At Exeter it was over the same trip as at Cheltenham (2m1f) and he appeared to lack the pace of the winner there, suggesting a step up in trip may benefit him. After his win on Friday connections were of a similar mind, and while he did show pace at the weekend the gruelling conditions will have aided him as it brought out his stamina which, once the ground dries up, will more likely than not be used over trips in excess of two miles, with the expected Festival target at this stage being the Neptune. Were it to be soft in March Jeremy Scott and connections may change their minds but, while it is presumptive to judge the race at this stage, Friday’s contest does not look strong enough to suggest that Melodic Rendezvous deserves to be strongly considered as a major player for the Cheltenham Festival curtain raiser.

It may be harsh to take dim view of the race at this stage but the pace was muddling, with most of the field in relatively close proximity crossing the line. Melodic Rendezvous was quite impressive in the way he moved around and upsides those who had briefly denied him a clear run on approach to the last thus he certainly isn’t without considerable speed, but having been beaten for pace at Exeter it is hard to believe that the Cheltenham race was especially strong. Nick Schofield rode Melodic Rendezvous well on Friday, knowing he had a horse with enough class and experience the jockey brought his horse into the desired position when it necessitated, unlike the eye-catcher of the race, who chased him home in second, ROYAL BOY.

Nicky Henderson’s five-year-old was an easy winner of his point-to-point and joined the star trainer some time ago but a setback forced him out for the whole of last season. Friday was his hurdling debut after a significant layoff, and while he has everything in the looks department it was difficult to know what to expect from this son of Lavirco. After a couple of stuttering leaps he really took to hurdling, attacking the flights with precision, he was quick through the air and he demonstrated just what scope he has, pointing to his real future over the larger obstacles. He travelled strongly through the race but as Barry Geraghty took Royal Boy wide round the home turn, in order to find his favoured stands rail, he was slightly outpaced with a wall of horses in front of him and the Nigel Twiston-Davies runner, Imperial Leader, slowing down on the rail blocking his path through. Once the gap appeared after the last Geraghty went after Royal Boy and he picked up quickly, storming home but never looking like reaching the winner who was already clear, Melodic Rendezvous’ extra experience told.

Royal Boy is an exciting prospect on that evidence and for a winning pointer, much like River Maigue at Cheltenham’s November meeting, the slow pace and sprint up the hill would not have played to his strengths. It is possible that he will be seen to better effect over further but I felt he showed that he had enough toe through the race to suggest that a truly run two miles could suit him, once he gains more experience it could be dangerous to write him off in stronger races over that trip. Despite the winner being well thought of, for whom a fruitful hurdling campaign was expected, the horse to take from the race must be Nicky Henderson’s charge.

Back in third on Friday was Eduard, who having given six pounds to the front two ran a solid race however I am not convinced he ran to his best and there is more to come, possibly up in trip and on better ground. The other main protagonist, who was expected to run well, was Alan King’s flashy chestnut, Valdez, but sadly he was disappointing like Village Vic. Valdez seemed to travel well for a long way but was clearly running too free on that ground and he almost certainly failed to handle the testing conditions. While he may not have been up to this class in any case, Valdez has valuable races in him and Alan King should get back on track without too much difficulty.  

NAVAN

This blog has become almost exclusively about those horses and races that could have an impact on the Supreme Novices Hurdle but I feel it would be remiss of me not to mention the Navan Novice Hurdle (G1) on Sunday, a race likely to have far more impact on novice hurdles over three miles than two.

The race beforehand was all about Gordon Elliott’s star horse, Don Cossack. Very exciting in bumpers, this giant son of Sholokhov won nicely on hurdling debut, with the odd jumping blemish, and was expected to prove unbeatable over the longer trip with that experience behind him. However, he was comprehensively beaten by Pont Alexandre, an expensive French recruit for Rich Ricci and Willie Mullins, even before he, literally, fell in a hole after the last.

With Ruby Walsh, evidently full of confidence, on board Pont Alexandre set off in front and was never headed. He was brisk over his hurdles nearly throughout, with only a tendency to jump slightly right worth noting, though that is only a very minor concern. This was an impressive performance from a four-year-old in a Grade 1 on only his second hurdling start and first in Ireland. The most striking part of this display was the manner in which he drew away from the hyped-up Gigginstown gelding between two out and the last. Victory was sealed when he cleared the final flight and as Mullins said afterwards ‘he could still be anything.’ There is a chance he needs very soft ground, with him apparently only impressing at home once the ground became heavy but I wouldn’t get too caught up in that and while he should be fully effective in a race like the Neptune, at this moment in time, that looks like the novice event of the Festival. Pont Alexandre ran like a real stayer on Sunday and, despite Coneygree winning with something to spare again at Cheltenham on Saturday, the Albert Bartlett might be his for the taking. 

Don Cossack, known as “The Don” at home, disappointed. He is a big unit who has his own jumping technique, sadly for his supporters that technique is less than desirable and it wouldn’t be harsh to describe his as clumsy. It is too early to write him off, the esteem in which he’s held by his trainer is enough to justify giving him a few more chances, as was the imperious nature of his last three bumper runs. He still has untapped potential over hurdles but unless his jumping improves dramatically, Cheltenham aspirations will have to be put on hold for at least this season. Connections of Don Cossack have been keen to emphasise that they want to tread carefully with him as chasing will be his forte. That will be something to look forward to, but as the jumps season revolves around Cheltenham he could have a major problem when it comes to March, either over hurdles or fences, and that is a need for soft ground. I would be surprised if he acts on anything quicker, and even more surprised if his connections risked him on it. 

Supreme Novices Update: Un Atout

Arguably, the horse to take from this weekend with the Supreme in mind didn’t even run. The form of My Tent Or Yours’ commanding win at Ascot was comprehensively boosted by Taquin Du Seuil on Friday when he took the Grade 2 novices’ hurdle at Sandown with consummate ease. The price of My Tent Or Yours for the Supreme collapsed after the event and considering how poorly he jumped against Taquin Du Seuil, one could be forgiven for holding sky high expectations for Nicky Henderson’s charge once he gets his act together. Taquin Du Seuil won on Friday over two-and-a-half miles, he appreciated the soft ground and must be thought of more as a Neptune Investment Management Novices' Hurdle horse. His trainer, Jonjo O’Neil, was not ruling the Supreme out, however, and he may have a difficult decision to make come March.

Another trainer likely to have some tough decisions to make in March is Willie Mullins. He has a host of novice hurdlers capable of running over trips between two and three miles and this weekend we saw another one join the ranks at Navan in the shape of Un Atout.

Un Atout arrived at Willie Mullins’ yard with a tall reputation and he was sent off at 2/7 on his racecourse debut in a bumper at Naas. With Patrick Mullins in the saddle he settled comfortably in front with just the outsider of seven, Foxland, for company. Unsurprisingly, Foxland dropped away relatively early and it was then left to main market rival, Directors Forum, to challenge, but while Mullins sat motionless, content with his mount cruising along, the rider on Directors Forum was hard at work on the final bend and eventually dropped away too, leaving Emily O to give chase. She may have got within four lengths but then at the two furlong pole Mullins nudged him forward and Un Atout stretched clear in a dominant, destructive manner, finishing 24 lengths ahead of the runner-up. This performance in early January was, to my eyes, the most impressive bumper display of last season. Willie Mullins had hoped to run him in one more bumper but he suffered muscle problems and was sensibly put away with a campaign over obstacles in mind.

For anyone who had seen his bumper, Un Atout’s hurdling debut at Navan on Saturday was highly anticipated. Over two miles, like his bumper, he was again happy to settle in front. This time, with Davy Russell on board to dictate the pace, nothing in the race was willing to challenge him for the lead, and he managed to grab a four length advantage. The pace was steady and a number in behind fought for their heads, while Un Atout was left alone able to have a clear sight of his hurdles. He jumped the first quickly but then skied the second and at the fifth he just clipped the top yet he was still sharp over it. He cleared the fourth last in style, making the ideal shape while once again being swift through the air. Russell let the field close up on the approach to the straight with the horse in second moving onto his tail. Then at the third last Un Atout got in too close and as Davy Russell shook him up to just get away from the flight after the sticky jump, Un Atout accelerated, quickly re-extending the lead. Russell sat straight back up and barely moved again as he was able to maintain the four length advantage right to the line with Fickle Fortune finishing well for second.

The most striking thing about this run was the ease with which Un Atout did it. There appeared to be so little effort involved for the horse, seemingly cantering from start to finish. While he does have room for improvement in his jumping Davy Russell’s mount was actually quite nimble over his hurdles, picking his legs up quickly when in close. He may not have put in the exuberant leaps stablemate Champagne Fever is capable of but he didn’t cede ground to his pursuers and was in fact deceptively fast from one side of the hurdle to another. I am sure as he gains experience his jumping will become an asset, or as they say in French; ‘un atout’.

Often when a heavily odds-on shot readily wins a maiden hurdle there is little of note in behind, only once upped in class can we really see how good he or she is. At Navan, Un Atout did what was expected of him, cruising to victory from an inferior field with a rise in class, no doubt, imminent. On this occasion, though, there were at least two very useful bumper performers with potential to be high class novice hurdlers in against him and they were dismissed with contempt. Noel Meade's Fickle Fortune, in receipt of 7lbs from Un Atout, had looked so exciting when winning her bumper and has been unlucky not to win since. Her problem has always been her inability to settle, but she is a pacey individual who will make her mark over hurdles and she finished a very decent second here. Some Article, purchased by J.P. McManus after convincingly winning the Goffs Land Rover Bumper at the Punchestown Festival, is also expected to make a very useful novice hurdler. While he was keen through the race, Some Article was essentially outclassed by Willie Mullins’ charge, unable to pick up as the leader sauntered away on the bridle. Un Atout was a level above this opposition on Saturday, he is already an exceptional prospect.

Whether he will win the Supreme is another matter as immediately after Saturday’s race Mullins described Un Atout as a stayer. This suggests a preference for stepping up in trip meaning that the Neptune could be the long term target. Nothing he has shown so far indicates a lack of speed for two miles, he has barely come off the bridle in two starts over the trip, conversely he will clearly have no issue over further having finished full of running each time and he is closely related to Sir Des Champs, who is out of Un Atout’s half-sister (both are by Robin Des Champs). He is very likely to be just as effective at both trips, the more important factor might be the other potential runners for the owners and the trainer. Willie Mullins’ main hope for the Neptune at this stage is Champagne Fever, he surely had his final run at two miles over hurdles last time, so unless he goes all the way up to three miles Mullins will have to aim Un Atout at the Supreme to avoid a clash. He did run both Sous Les Cieux and Make Your Mark in the Neptune last year so maybe he won’t mind having more than one runner, the real complication is the owners. They did have two runners in the Supreme last season thus it could be irrelevant but with Don Cossack they have another serious Neptune candidate and I would be very surprised if Gigginstown Stud were not keen to keep him and Un Atout apart. There has been talk of Don Cossack missing Cheltenham altogether with connections’ eyes firmly on chasing next season, leaving the path open for a Un Atout to have a tilt at the Neptune, but I find it hard to believe that Gordon Elliot would skip the meeting with his very best unless the ground was fast.

With such an inexperienced horse, like Un Atout, there will of course be doubts and there are certainly question marks over his suitability for the Cheltenham Festival. For instance, a minor concern is that we don’t know how he’ll cope being in and around horses during a race yet or whether he needs to be in front. I suspect connections have a huge amount of confidence in the horse and they have merely kept things simple in races they expect to win, such is his ability tactics should be immaterial. Another concern is that Un Atout has so far only run in testing conditions apparently relishing them each time, but as a close relative of Sir Des Champs one would expect him to handle the prevailing ground in March and he isn’t a heavy topped horse in the mould of Bog Warrior or Don Cossack. He will probably improve for the quicker ground and if his season turns out how I anticipate then he will head to Cheltenham as Ireland’s best novice hurdler.

Supreme Novices Update: Royal Bond Novice Hurdle (grade 1) review

On Sunday we witnessed the strongest race meeting of the season so far at Fairyhouse. Three grade 1s, a grade 3 juvenile hurdle, two intriguing handicaps and a highly competitive bumper; this was a day where the emphasis was firmly on quality over quantity. Unfortunately, due to the injudicious carving up of Newbury’s, once great, showpiece card, the same could not be said for Hennessy Gold Cup day.

To no one’s surprise, Willie Mullins dominated the racing at Fairyhouse winning two of the grade 1s and the bumper with an exciting recruit, Outlander. The only grade 1 that eluded him was the first, the Royal Bond Novice Hurdle, a race he took last year with the ill-fated Sous Les Cieux. After Ruby Walsh had ridden his second grade 1 winner, on Zaidpour, he was interviewed about his successful day and, notably, he suggested that prior to the racing he felt his best chance of a winner was Champagne Fever. This was understandable as he was the shortest price of Walsh’s three rides (the only favourite amongst them) and he had been last season’s best bumper horse in Britain and Ireland. When he won the Champion Bumper at Cheltenham, under Patrick Mullins, he had also comfortably accounted for Sunday’s main rival, Jezki. The only real concern for Ruby Walsh and the connections of Champagne Fever was the trip. This gangly grey son of Stowaway was never going to be a Supreme Novices Hurdle horse, he won his Champion bumper through stamina and guts, and nothing about him suggested he would be at his best at two miles over hurdles. What he had shown was class and a high cruising speed, so it was hoped that on the soft ground he could get away with it. Champagne Fever is a relentless galloper but he lacks a turn of foot and that proved crucial in Sunday’s outcome.

Ruby Walsh set off in front on Champagne Fever, the same tactics had been employed on each of his four previous (winning) starts including his hurdling debut over two miles at Cork, and he took the small field along at a reasonable pace, clearly intent on avoiding a sprint to the line. Champagne travelled comfortably in front for much of the way, jumping with exuberance, looking every inch the chaser he promises to be. As Ruby Walsh tried to increase the pace, however, his jumping started to falter, Mullins had suggested he might be ‘a bit novicey’ having only had one run over obstacles, and while he was trying to stretch the field he was hampered by slow leaps at the last three hurdles. Walsh kept asking his mount for more and more effort and Champagne Fever kept finding as he always had done in the past, but at the second last Jezki was still, seemingly, cruising on the bridle with Geraghty just biding his time. As the pair crossed the last in front, Geraghty played his hand, drawing clear of Champagne Fever who had no answer to the change of pace. To his credit he kept battling to the line and was giving the winner three pounds but on this evidence it is difficult to envisage a scenario where Champagne Fever could reverse the form with Jezki at two miles over hurdles, barring heavy ground bordering on unraceable.

There were excuses for Champagne Fever’s defeat put up by Willie Mullins, including the track at Fairyhouse being difficult for front-runners and this was relatively close to his hurdling debut, yet it is hard to watch the race and draw any conclusion other than he needs further to be seen at his best (preferably over fences but that will have to wait, sadly). As someone who holds Champagne Fever in the highest regard, I was disappointed to see him beaten at Fairyhouse. Immediately after the race I struggled to believe that was as good as he is, I felt it was possibly a flat performance and the presence of Zuzka just a length behind confirmed this for me. On reflection this theory was short-sighted and underestimates Jezki who had looked so impressive over hurdles up to this point. Champagne Fever had his own way in front and he wasn’t pressed for the lead, but as the pace quickened his jumping suffered suggesting at a two mile pace his hurdling is not quite quick enough. He did manage to see off almost the entire field before the last but as he maintained his impressive, if not spectacular pace, Jezki, who had looked a speed horse his entire career, accelerated in the fashion of a real Supreme Novice.

Jezki, for trainer Jessica Harrington, had looked a high class novice hurdler already this season. There was a doubt about the worth of the form of his last run, where powered to victory on the bridle, until the second, Un Beau Matin, beat a decent field, including dual Royal Ascot winner Simenon, comfortably on his next start. That in isolation, then, was quite a performance from this four-year-old son of Milan, but he received a further boost when Ally Cascade, second to Jezki on their hurdling debuts, came out and beat a well touted Mullins runner in a maiden hurdle on Friday. Ally Cascade succumbed to Jezki’s turn of foot, much in the way Champagne Fever did.

Barry Geraghty settled Jezki on the inside from the off on Sunday. There was no sign of him being keen with Geraghty happy to be left in fourth upon jumping the first, no more than four lengths off the primary target Champagne Fever. There was, though, cause for concern at the second flight as Geraghty pulled his mount out to get a better view of the hurdle and Jezki jumped left over it losing ground on those ahead. He did the same at the third, this time looking even more awkward before a mistake at the fourth. His natural pace was enough to maintain the desired position but once again he jumped left at the fifth and he even jumped the last two flights slightly left. His jumping, therefore, was far from accomplished. Had Champagne Fever taken the last three flights fluently Jezki may have been in trouble, but while this display leaves a doubt in the back of one’s mind, I would not be overly concerned as this was his first run right-handed. Back on a left-handed course we will surely see significant improvement and this must make his performance more meritorious as he was able to win a grade 1, defeating a strong field in the process, despite jumping left nearly throughout.

Connections of Jezki have made clear their expectation that he would be even more impressive on better ground despite three convincing victories in testing conditions. Thus, his ideal race would be on a left-handed course on good or good to soft ground, the circumstances he would likely face in the Supreme. His form was already solid enough to be considered a top novice prospect, but in defeating Champagne Fever he has shown form that will be hard to match in the two mile novice hurdling division, especially as Willie Mullins’ charge will no doubt run over further from now on. After the race most bookmakers cut Jezki into 10/1 favourite for the Supreme Novices Hurdle, Ladbrokes were on their own in offering 14/1 which was a crazy price on the back of that performance. I would have him no bigger than 8/1 favourite for the Festival curtain raiser and any bookmaker offering double figures, most of them still are, is being generous. There will have to be some special performances in the next few months, from the likes of Waaheb and My Tent Or Yours, to shift him from his position at the head of the market.

For those against Jezki there is one run to cling to from his career so far, his only run at Cheltenham. He finished eighth in the Champion Bumper, nearly twelve lengths behind Champagne Fever, but he shaped well there, just lacking for stamina. He is also improving with experience and as a four-year-old he must be strengthening up all the time. That run would be of little concern to me, particularly as he did seem to handle the track and it was a very similar run in the race to that of last season’s Supreme winner Cinders And Ashes. Winners of that Champion Bumper have a poor record in the Supreme as it generally requires a different type of horse to win each race, the bumper is often a test of stamina where as the Supreme is more a test of speed, a test Jezki will excel at.

Of those in behind Jezki and Champagne Fever on Sunday, Zuzka evidently shaped the best finishing just a length behind her stablemate in third. She stayed on well at the finish, having travelled up to the leaders two out, just lacking the class of the front two. She can only find weaker races than this and will take some beating next time out, and there is no reason to think that she won’t handle a step up in trip. A horse who needs a step up in trip is Minsk who finished a respectable fourth. Very useful on the flat, he was a talking horse last year, but on his hurdling debut failed to deliver and then missed the rest of the season. He came back over hurdles last month with a dominant display over two-and-a-half-miles and it was assumed a drop back in trip would not bother him. In fact, he simply lacked the speed to stay in the race from two out and his trainer, Dessie Hughes, has already stated that his next target will be back over further. Some distance adrift of the first four was Clonbanan Lad. He does not appear up to this level and it may be the case that he needs the heavy ground.