Supreme Novices’ Hurdle Prediction: 1-2-3

Despite the incessant reading, listening, tweeting and thinking about Cheltenham, it is somewhat hard to believe that the Festival has all but arrived. Throughout the season I have tried to set out my views on the key trials for the Supreme, detailing how the possible contenders have shaped and hopefully pointing out reasons for and against supporting each horse in advance of the big race next week. It should have become clear who I am keenest on but just in case, now seems the right time to definitively predict the result. Here are the three I fancy to finish first, second and third:

3^rd – Champagne Fever

With the strongest Irish form available it might seem foolish to leave Jezki out of the top three, especially when he has already beaten the third place selection in the Royal Bond Novice Hurdle. Despite doing all that has been asked of him this season, there are reasons to think Jezki will not achieve at Cheltenham what many people are expecting. His emphatic victory at Leopardstown last time forced many to sit up and take notice of this son of Milan but the form has since been let down by Waaheb who during that race at Leopardstown made a horrendous blunder thereby exaggerating the winning distance. There are still concerns about Jezki’s jumping, despite showing significant improvement travelling left-handed, and the good ground he apparently needs to be seen at his best is not materialising. He may, on the face of it, standout as a solid each-way play, but despite preferring to see Jezki’s last run at Cheltenham as largely irrelevant, the way he faded up the hill behind Champagne Fever continues to niggle. The received wisdom is that Willie Mullins’ gangly grey lacks the speed for two miles and the late wavering over his target, between this and the three mile Albert Bartlett, can only be a negative. However, he managed to hold off much ‘faster’ rivals in the Champion Bumper when there were similar concerns and the recent rain will help, he could prove just as hard to pass at Cheltenham over hurdles. I suspect he will lack the speed to win this race but he still looks capable of finishing in the frame. There will likely come a point in the race where he looks sure to be swamped, yet his jumping is good and bold enough to keep him in front for a long way, while his class should help him see off a number of overrated rivals. More than three horses could easily pass Champagne Fever, but such is his abundant stamina, I can see the speedier contenders trying to compete with My Tent Or Yours’ turn of foot and failing, finishing tired, while the stoutly bred son of Stowaway flies up the hill, snatching a place.

2^nd – My Tent Or Yours

Recent defeats for heavily backed, short priced favourites in the Supreme should not be a reason to oppose My Tent Or Yours. He was sensationally impressive in the Betfair Hurdle at Newbury, with three progressive young handicappers making the frame. Nothing in behind can be used to hold the form down, so in a misguided attempt to crab the performance, a slow pace and a beneficially prominent ride have been given as reasons to knock My Tent Or Yours. If anything, I expect a faster pace would have seen Nicky Henderson’s charge appear even more imperious, given his tendency to pull hard. Some have even questioned what My Tent Or Yours finds off the bridle since his Newbury rout. Well from what I could see about ten lengths, but that is debatable, what isn’t debatable is the amount he found to beat subsequent Grade 1 winning hurdler Taquin Du Seuil on hurdling debut, having jumped atrociously. That is no longer an issue with the Desert Prince gelding; his hurdling was electric in the twenty one runner Betfair Hurdle. He is developing rapidly and it would have been no surprise to see My Tent Or Yours run in the Champion Hurdle. In my opinion, this speedster is nearly bombproof as favourite and he has never struck me as being a particularly short price. I will be shocked if, barring injury, incident or illness, My Tent Or Yours does not finish in the first two on Tuesday. Consequently, it might be more sensible to select him as my winner given that I can easily envisage him taking the Festival curtain raiser in a similar fashion to the Betfair Hurdle, but there is a chance another is better and that is a chance I am willing to take.

1^st – Un Atout

The only horse in the field that I can imagine matching or bettering My Tent Or Yours is Un Atout. There was barely a more impressive, jaw-dropping bumper performance during the 2011/2012 season and his hurdling debut this time around was eagerly anticipated. Yet again he mastered his rivals with little effort, dominating the race from the front. The level of opposition he faced at Navan is questionable and the two horses that could have given a level to the form have been deprived the chance of boosting it since; with the fourth, Some Article, being carried out next time, and the second, Fickle Fortune, subsequently suffering a season ending injury. Fickle Fortune herself was an extremely pacey horse in bumpers, thus giving encouragement to those who felt Un Atout would have the speed for grade 1 races over two miles. This was despite the immediate post race comments from his trainer suggesting he is a prospective staying chaser. His jumping on debut was occasionally big, possibly giving rise to those comments, but he was accurate and fast on his next start and Davy Russell has been effusive with praise for his jumping since. Un Atout destroyed his field here, at Naas, on the bridle and he became the serious Supreme contender he is now with Willie Mullins making it clear afterwards that he was content to keep this imposing son of Robin Des Champs at two miles. This was another piece of form potentially lacking strength, with the unreliable Rory O’Moore finishing nineteen lengths away in second. The third though, Art Of Logistics, has won since at Fairyhouse, defeating the aforementioned, and still highly regarded, Waaheb, in the process. The ground at Naas was very deep and Art Of Logistics may not have handled it but the form boost he delivered at least gives substance to Un Atout’s unparalleled style.

He did miss his next intended engagement in the Deloitte due to a sub standard piece of work and even his most ardent fans have to acknowledge his lack of experience; the pace of the race, the ground, the atmosphere and the crowd at Prestbury Park will all be new to him. But he has shown no sign of temperament in his three runs so far, he is a relaxed individual and I would be confident that he will take everything in his powerful stride. The faster pace and the potential emphasis on stamina created by the likes of his stablemate Champagne Fever should suit, while there is still scope for him to improve on the quicker surface at Cheltenham. The Festival will almost certainly start on soft but it will be far removed from the deep, heavy ground Un Atout has faced runs over hurdles up to now.

This will be a truly hot renewal of the Supreme but at Willie Mullins' Closutton base Un Atout is housed in an elite group of three along with Sir Des Champs and Hurricane Fly, and I fancy he can match his illustrious neighbours' success at the Cheltenham Festival in this, the most anticipated race of the year.

1. Un Atout
2. My Tent Or Yours
3. Champagne Fever

Supreme Novices Update: My Tent Or Yours, Champagne Fever and Melodic Rendezvous

Betfair’s Super Saturday at Newbury lost some of its lustre with the decisions not to run Long Run or Simonsig in their respective prep races for the Festival. This left the card without a serious Arkle/Champion Chase contender and Silviniaco Conti with a seemingly straightforward task in the Denman Chase. Racing is rarely as simple as that though and it delivered more than enough excitement to make up for Nicky Henderson’s cautiousness. Ironically it was Henderson’s own My Tent Or Yours who really lit up Saturday’s card and the whole weekend. Prior to the Betfair Hurdle My Tent Or Yours was a rare beast in that his Cheltenham target was inevitable, evident from a very early stage, well it was until he did that!

After his scintillating display on Saturday My Tent Or Yours is quite rightly being talked up as a Champion Hurdle horse and he would not be out of place in that field, rather a deserved leading contender. The one issue left with Nicky Henderson’s charge, having sorted out his jumping at Huntingdon, was his free-going nature. He had been over-exuberant and keen in each run so far, the concern being whether he could find enough off the bridle after using up so much energy in a race against higher quality opposition. This frailty was harshly exposed by The New One in last season’s exceptional renewal of the Aintree Bumper. My Tent Or Yours is a better, stronger individual now but this was still a minor worry in a ‘competitive’ race like the Betfair Hurdle. As such I expected him to be settled in rear and pick off the other runners one by one, much like he had tried and failed to do on his last visit to Newbury. Maybe in the knowledge that there were few, if any, horses involved willing to set the pace or maybe just with supreme confidence AP McCoy crossed the tape, near enough, in front. From then on it was McCoy’s mission to settle him, My Tent Or Yours still pulled against his rider but McCoy was able drop him back as they left the home straight for the first time. In a seemingly ideal position on the inside rail, McCoy was in search of cover all the way up the back straight, just making sure he could keep a lid on all the enthusiasm and speed underneath him. As the field entered the home straight My Tent Or Yours had moved up into fifth and as commentator Richard Hoiles pointed out it was plain to see that McCoy was intent on slipstreaming the mare, Swing Bowler, for as long as he could. As the leaders drew away from the third last My Tent Or Yours was still pulling as he latched right onto the tail of Swing Bowler, before moving out to jump the second last. At that moment there was only one horse catching the eye and it became a matter of how far. Finally let go by McCoy at the last, the Desert Prince gelding rapped the hurdle as his acceleration got the better of him before powering clear under hands and heels, eventually easing down to a five length victory.

There is little more that he could have done here, his jumping was neat and fast, particularly at the second where he was unsighted thereby forcing him in close to the hurdle but he was extraordinarily nimble over it, thanks in no small part, I am sure, to AP McCoy’s intensive schooling. My Tent Or Yours found plenty off the bridle, putting an eight or nine length gap on the field as he was let down, before being eased. Despite the steady pace set the form could not look much stronger, with nothing in there holding it down and three thoroughly progressive handicappers filling the places. Cotton Mill had been well fancied for this, primarily on the back of his run in the Neptune where he was travelling nearly as well as Simonsig at the second last before running out in spectacular fashion. His impressive performance here does make the decision to run Cotton Mill over three miles straight after his Cheltenham calamity seem somewhat perplexing and with connections' desire to avoid heavy ground at all costs, the rain, sleet and snow which greeted us at Newbury on Saturday can’t have benefitted him. Neither was the race run especially to suit as he would have preferred a stronger pace, he lacked the speed of the winner, but then most jumpers do, and arguably Swing Bowler before his stamina kicked in, finishing strongly into second. There is clearly more to come, even before taking into account that this was his first run for 302 days, and he is an exciting prospect wherever he goes. A trip to the Champion Hurdle would not be unthinkable and were My Tent Or Yours to revert to novice company he would be a fascinating barometer of the Betfair Hurdle form. This could well be one of the strongest handicap hurdles of the whole season and it must be wise to consider strongly the likes of Swing Bowler and Dark Lover for the County Hurdle, Village Vic for the Coral Cup and even Caid Du Berlais for the Fred Winter, having shown up well for a long way despite running wide and being out of the weights.

I am struggling to find any negatives around My Tent Or Yours' chances for the Supreme Novices Hurdle and he is a worthy favourite, having usurped fellow JP McManus purchase Jezki. Ominously for his rivals, My Tent Or Yours has shown that he handles testing conditions while he is likely to improve for a quicker surface. He just has so much pace and as I suggested after his last run there was nothing in the Betfair Hurdle that could live with him. The only question left for me about My Tent Or Yours is whether something like the completely unexposed Un Atout is better, although the question that might prove more pertinent in the lead up to the Cheltenham Festival is whether it is Un Atout’s fellow Closutton inmate Hurricane Fly who is better?

Also in the care of Willie Mullins in Closutton, County Carlow is last season’s Champion Bumper winner Champagne Fever. Every indication was that he was going to prove to be substantially better over further than two miles, especially his defeat to Jezki at the start of the season where it looked only a matter of time before he was stepped up in trip on his way to Cheltenham for either the Neptune or Albert Bartlett novice hurdles. Yet on his first run over two-and-a-half miles he ran deplorably although that was down to a respiratory tract infection discovered subsequently. Understandably Willie Mullins gave him a reasonable break to recover from his illness and it was only after apparently impressing in a piece of work that the trainer decided to run him in the Deloitte Novice Hurdle (Leopardstown) on Saturday instead of the aforementioned Un Atout. This was over two miles and two furlongs and was assumed to be Champagne Fever’s prep for the Neptune, especially with the presence of Pique Sous and Mozoltov, alongside Un Atout, as Supreme Novice contenders. Such is the owner’s strength in the novice hurdle divisions, however, he already has leading fancies in the Neptune and Albert Bartlett. With the desire to have a runner in each Festival race, Champagne Fever’s winning form over two miles at Cheltenham and his proximity to long time Supreme Favourite Jezki on just his second start over hurdles, it is hard to argue Rich Ricci’s decision isn’t justified.

During Saturday’s race the fall, at the second, of main rival Waaheb handed Champagne Fever a relatively straightforward task, assuming he was none the worse for his previous infection. Under an aggressive ride from new pilot Paul Townend, this willing son of Stowaway set a tempo likely to expose any weakness in his opposition and bring his strength, stamina, to the fore. Aside from a not insignificant mistake at the first his jumping was accomplished and if he is to try similar tactics in the Supreme his jumping will need to be absolutely foot perfect. Here it nearly was as he took lengths out of his challengers at most obstacles, there is a special chaser in there waiting to get out and it is a shame we didn’t see him over fences this season. All bar Bright New Dawn were left toiling in behind Champagne Fever, whose prodigious galloping was too much for the rest to handle. Bright New Dawn did look a serious danger in on the run up to the last, having travelled sweetly with the guidance of Davy Russell, but the victory was sealed by the gangly grey with another fluent leap at the final flight, as he was always going to outstay his Dessie Hughes trained opponent.

Ruby Walsh has a very tough decision to make as he has the option of riding Dodging Bullets, for Paul Nicholls, and Pique Sous, Mozoltov and now Champagne Fever, for Willie Mullins, in the Supreme. I would suggest he rides Champagne Fever as there is no doubt in my mind that he is the best horse in that foursome, the worry would be whether he will be effective enough over the minimum trip. The Neptune looks made for him but with the presence of the inimitable Pont Alexandre, the Supreme it will have to be. Whether he can reverse early season form with Jezki is highly doubtful and Bright New Dawn gave that horse another boost having been eight lengths behind in the Future Champions Novice Hurdle. There is also the matter of whether Champagne Fever can hold off a number of far speedier types as he is sent for home, but such is his class I suspect there is every chance that he can hold off enough to be right there at the last and whatever happens it will be a tantalising spectacle.

On Sunday, we saw a highly anticipated clash between two more horses that, earlier in the season, I had expected to go down the Neptune novices hurdle route. Melodic Rendezvous and Puffin Billy were both comfortable winners on their last start, winning a grade 1 and a grade 2 respectively. Both are extremely well regarded by connections and both sets were convinced they were going to win at Exeter. Despite Melodic Rendezvous being the grade 1 winner it was Puffin Billy who was sent off the odds on favourite. Oliver Sherwood’s son of Heron Island had looked awesome in two bumpers and two novice hurdles to date, showing a combination of pace and power that marked him out as a danger to all with Cheltenham on the horizon, yet it was the locally trained (to Exeter) Melodic Rendezvous who came out comprehensively on top.

Nick Schofield was under the impression that Puffin Billy was more of a stayer than his mount Melodic Rendezvous. Believing he could beat him for speed Schofield tracked Puffin Billy nearly throughout the contest, only making his challenge at the last. The torrential rain in the morning had left the ground bordering on bottomless but both of the main protagonists in this five runner affair had experience on this sort of surface, as a result it was not expected to inconvenience either and it is hard to say it did. Melodic Rendezvous again jumped well throughout, he is a natural hurdler, and Puffin Billy seemingly improved his hurdling technique but one serious blunder two out probably sealed his fate. At the last the two were side by side but Leighton Aspell had been hard at Puffin Billy for most of the straight whilst Nick Schofield had been motionless on Melodic Rendezvous. Once asked he quickened away instantly, leaving the struggling Puffin Billy for dead. On the face of it this was an exciting performance from a progressive novice and he has definitely improved physically through the season (compared to when I saw him at Cheltenham anyway) but the manner in which Puffin Billy made such hard work of it from so far out suggested that there was something amiss with him and he was later discovered to be lame, thus explaining the lack of correlation between how he had run up until then and how he ran on Sunday.

It is far from ideal for Puffin Billy and his connections’ Cheltenham aspirations to run such a lacklustre race so near to the Festival but it would be wrong to judge him on this performance and he is still a hugely promising horse. It would also, therefore, be wrong to draw too many hard and fast conclusions about the winner Melodic Rendezvous. What I can reiterate is that he jumps well and he clearly has a dangerous turn of foot but he is yet to show me that he has the star potential that will be necessary to win this season’s Supreme. I was concerned after his grade 1 win that I could be underestimating him, and that is still the case but it is just too easy to knock the Tolworth form, while he was lucky in my opinion to win at Cheltenham and on hurdling debut he was defeated by Mr Mole who has just won a minor handicap off a mark of 126. Now, that fails to tell the whole story as Mr Mole is another promising sort who won emphatically but that has to be a concern for Melodic Rendezvous supporters, especially as it was on the quickest ground he has faced over hurdles. Were Cheltenham to be heavy I think he would suddenly become an interesting player but I expect he will struggle on a sounder surface against the calibre of opposition expected at the Festival.

Following Sunday’s win bookmakers shortened up Melodic Rendezvous into 8/1 generally for the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle. This was an overreaction especially as his only rival in the listed race was pronounced lame soon after. With a foot problem diagnosed and confirmed later this race at Exeter was an uninformative contest. It should not have affected his price to such an extent, I see him as a 12/1 shot at best especially when there are murmurings that he could switch to the Neptune on quicker ground.

Supreme Novices Update: Un Atout (Naas)

Much of what makes recognising the best novice hurdlers difficult is the necessity to differentiate between horses winning impressively against inferior opposition and horses being pushed hard to win higher quality races. This season we have Dodging Bullets and Jezki who have won strong races but with little in hand. Admittedly, Jezki did run away with a grade 1 last time but that was not the race it first appeared and I am referring here to his defeat of Champagne Fever and Zuzka etc. It is difficult to knock what they have achieved, both appearing to be at the level required to compete in a Supreme Novices. Yet, with their ventures into graded company we are able to gauge, far more easily, what they might be capable of. At this stage I find myself drawn to those who are still to hint at what level they could achieve, the likes of Puffin Billy, albeit he is still more likely to head for the Neptune, and, to a certain extent, My Tent Or Yours, now the jumping has come together it is hard to put a limit on his ability. On Saturday we arguably witnessed the best and most exciting example of this in Ireland. Despite the desperate weather claiming all the racing worth watching in Britain, Naas managed to survive and a novice many people had been yearning to see again, Un Atout, dismantled his field.

Willie Mullins' five-year-old son of Robin Des Champs was imperious, just as he had been on his previous two starts under rules. On his hurdling debut at Navan, Un Atout controlled the race from the front and came home untested from what I hope will turn out to be a reasonable field. The second (Fickle Fortune) and fourth (Some Article) are potentially very useful but neither has been given the opportunity to show it thus far. Davy Russell was unlikely to have the same opportunity to dictate the pace at Naas, however, as Un Atout came up against perennial front runner Rory O’Moore. There was a moment on Saturday when it seemed as if Rory O’Moore was unwilling to start, in which case Un Atout would have had to make his own running, but after some cajoling from, jockey, Andrew McNamara the race took shape as expected. Often Rory O’Moore can go very hard from the front and this may well have benefitted Davy Russell on Un Atout but in the energy sapping conditions this was not feasible.

Settled in behind the leader, Un Atout took a hold to begin with, as the pace was no more than a dawdle, but once they had jumped the second he relaxed, travelling well within himself. He moved up alongside Rory O’Moore at the third last and the race looked in safe keeping from then on, barring any mishaps. Mishaps were unlikely though as his jumping was nearly spot on, he was quick and nimble when in close to the hurdles, while he was able to stretch out when necessary as well, with the highlight of the whole round coming at the second last as he drew away from his ‘competition’.  It could not have been more comfortable for Un Atout and his rider, Un Atout just cantered all over this field and sauntered away, expending as little effort as is possible in a race over two miles on heavy ground. He was evidently in a different league, despite the second and third both winning novice hurdles previously, and he is yet to show any sign of inexperience despite only having raced three times. Everything he has done in his career suggests that he is a high class novice hurdler and despite lacking the form and substance of Jezki I would mark him down as Ireland’s best chance of winning the 2013 Supreme Novices' Hurdle.

This does not mean he deserves to be favourite for the race. On what he has actually achieved so far he probably shouldn’t be any shorter than 10/1. I can understand why he is so short as he is such an exciting prospect, who at the moment has limitless potential, and the confidence behind him from his top stable is more than encouraging. Unfortunately, there must be question marks over him, the first of which is what has he actually beaten? When one considers Jezki, for instance, he has beaten last season’s Champion Bumper winner in Champagne Fever, an ultra-impressive winner of a subsequent grade 3 hurdle in Zuzka, and numerous highly regarded novices including, Waaheb, Bright New Dawn, Ally Cascade, Minsk and Sizing Rio, all relatively easily. His jumping still leaves something to be desired but his form is almost unquestionable and it will be difficult to match in the in the next 50 days. Even My Tent Or Yours, who is still more style over substance, has beaten a subsequent grade 1 winner. Un Atout beat nothing of note in his bumper and on his first start over obstacles nothing in behind capable of showing decent form has done so yet. 

On Saturday Un Atout managed to put 19 lengths between him and Rory O’Moore, while on the bridle. Last time out, Jezki did something similar but put 58 lengths between himself and this front running son of Stowaway. It is very easy to read too much into this, however, as heavy ground form in Ireland can be unreliable while at the same time I am sure Rory O’Moore ran massively below form behind Jezki as he was harried for the lead and, in fact, had to concede it to Sizing Rio which was entirely unsuitable. It is sensible to judge Rory O’Moore on his run behind Un Atout, it is also sensible not to judge the respective merits of Un Atout and Jezki on the performances of this one horse. Like many of the current antepost favourites for the Cheltenham Festival (including Sprinter Sacre, Simonsig, Dynaste and Bobs Worth) it is difficult to be negative about Jezki but he does not leave me with the same impression that Un Atout does despite having achieved more, there is just the sense that Un Atout could be something special, hopefully on his next start, possibly in the Deloitte, we will find out whether or not this assertion is misguided.

If Un Atout does run next in the Deloitte Novice Hurdle he will run over further than two miles for the first time. It is only two furlongs further and should make little difference to him but it does point to another question over Un Atout, does he need further than two miles? Breeding suggests this is likely and after his seasonal debut at Navan, Willie Mullins and Davy Russell both indicated he was a stayer in the making. However, the prevalence of staying novice hurdlers trained by Willie Mullins and owned by, Un Atout’s owners, Gigginstown House Stud has led to Un Atout being their Supreme Novices horse. It is possible that without any other novices to place he would be Neptune bound but from what I have seen Un Atout will be ideally suited to two miles round Cheltenham anyway. He shows so much class in his races that a faster pace could improve him, while the frenetic gallop which he will face in March can bring his apparent stamina into play. Willie Mullins is now confident that he has the necessary gears to stick to two miles and the way Un Atout has pulled away from his rivals so far makes it difficult to argue otherwise.

Finally, this relation of Sir Des Champs has been advertising his Supreme credentials in very soft ground in Ireland and there has to be a question mark over whether these are the conditions he needs to perform at his best. Un Atout clearly handles testing going well but that would not put me off for Cheltenham. He doesn’t possess the action of horse that needs it deep and I would be far happier to suggest that he will, if anything, improve for the better ground as I have mentioned before.

With Jezki heading straight to Cheltenham his position at the head of the betting for the Festival’s curtain raiser may be safe for the time being but I suspect, if My Tent Or Yours hasn’t got there first by winning the Betfair Hurdle, after Un Atout’s next foray onto the track it will be under serious threat.