Supreme Novices Update: Tolworth Hurdle review

Underestimation is something I am far less guilty of than overestimation. I can easily get too excited about a horse that impresses, go overboard with a taking performance, but it is more unusual for me to be overly negative about a horse with major Cheltenham Festival pretensions. Last season, while he was a solid horse with strong bumper form and a sequence of relatively impressive wins over hurdles, I couldn’t believe Cinders And Ashes would be good enough to win the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle. There was no reason to think he was incapable of making the frame, I just assumed, from what I had seen, that there would be a couple of classier candidates able to see him off up the Cheltenham hill. This season I appear to be in a similar situation with Melodic Rendezvous as, so far, he has done little to put one off expecting a big show in March, but I can’t see him having the pace or the class to take the main prize, whether that be the Supreme or the Neptune.

On Saturday, Melodic Rendezvous took the step up to grade 1 company over hurdles in his stride, running out a convincing winner of the Tolworth Hurdle. His grade 1 bumper form augured well but his starting price and position in the market (only third favourite) suggested that many, including myself, were expecting a different outcome. When discussing Melodic Rendezvous’ last race I had been very positive about runner up, Royal Boy. With the extra experience from that first run over hurdles behind him I had expected the form to be reversed with Jeremy Scott’s charge, and that seemed to be the general consensus seeing as Royal Boy started the 5/2 favourite. However, Melodic Rendezvous never looked in much danger of defeat on Saturday, with Royal Boy a well beaten third. Receiving a nice lead from Nicky Henderson’s six-year-old, Melodic Rendezvous settled comfortably in about fourth for most of the journey. His jumping was slick and economical, there was no semblance of an error and this is clearly a strength especially when one compares his jumping to those around him in the Supreme market. As Royal Boy weakened rapidly, he picked up well between the final two obstacles and from the half furlong pole Nick Schofield asked him to pull away from Pendra and the Where Or When gelding responded in good style. There is much to like about Melodic Rendezvous, he is tough, has a willing attitude, he clearly stays well and it is hard to argue that he wasn’t comfortably the best horse at Sandown. The question is whether that is hugely significant in terms of the Supreme Novices hurdle.

In the run up to Saturday’s race, the Tolworth looked a reasonably strong renewal and if Court Minstrel and Royal Boy had, in my view, ran anywhere near their previous levels of form then it would be hard to knock such a performance but I am quite convinced they did not. Melodic Rendezvous’ previous runs were not strong enough in form terms to suggest he was a Cheltenham Festival winner in waiting, particularly his debut run over hurdles where he finished behind Mr Mole. He is definitely improving, some would say rapidly, but even having won this grade 1 he is still yet to show me enough to suggest he is the Cheltenham candidate that his lofty antepost market positions suggest.

In second at Sandown was Pendra, admittedly four-and-a-half-lengths away, who has not shown enough to mark him out as a serious grade 1 contender. Since he ran away with his bumper Charlie Longsdon’s five-year-old has advertised his novice hurdle credentials with two wins from two starts, both at Plumpton, but his run prior to the Tolworth Hurdle was a three-and-three-quarter-lengths defeat of Workbench, trained by Paul Nicholls. Pendra took his time in putting that race to bed and I am sure Nicholls would have Workbench way down his novice hurdle pecking order.

Pendra already looks the sort who will improve for further, having attempted to make the running on Saturday in order to make use of his apparent stamina, and his ideal trip will surely prove to be nearer three miles than two. He was not simply brushed aside by Melodic Rendezvous either as, aided by Noel Fehily’s urgings, Pendra battled for much of the run in, whereas one would expect a serious candidate for Cheltenham to dismiss this future chaser with more authority than the winner did. It is fair to say the ground was extremely testing at Sandown and that would have contributed to Pendra’s performance while hampering the efforts of a classier Melodic Rendezvous. The emphasis became far more on stamina and that points to a step up in trip for Melodic Rendezvous but his impressive trainer, Jeremy Scott, is aiming more towards the Supreme having proved effective not only over two miles, but also at Cheltenham.

If Melodic Rendezvous does improve for the better ground one assumes he will face in March, as his trainer and jockey have stated on numerous occasions, then it is possible that we are a distance away from seeing his true ability. His record suggests that he handles testing ground, in fact he may well thrive on it having run so well behind Champagne Fever at Punchestown on, near enough, waterlogged ground. In two grade ones on heavy ground he has finished second and first while his only defeat over hurdles to date was on good-to-soft ground. He might just be the horse to look to in a heavy ground Supreme, these are the only conditions in which I could entertain backing him, but this would also encourage some of those contemplating the Neptune to drop down in trip, providing Melodic Rendezvous with an even tougher test. As nice as it is to see a different trainer competing with the National Hunt juggernauts, I am yet to see the zip and class necessary to get me excited about his Cheltenham prospects but then I felt exactly the same way about Cinders And Ashes last season.

For many the disappointment of Saturday’s race was Poet. There was a widely held belief that Poet was ultra impressive on his hurdling debut and that his flat class would inevitably result in him becoming a high class hurdler. I thought he was all out at Newbury to defeat, the subsequently beaten, Veloce and there was this myth about his ‘brilliant’ jumping, which looked no more than adequate to me. Poet ran as well as I expected he would on Saturday and, while this was an admirably ambitious target, if he is to make a mark over hurdles it will have to be at a much lower level.

The disappointment of the race for me in the Tolworth was the aforementioned favourite, Royal Boy. Last time, at Cheltenham, he was just trapped in behind the rest of the field just as the pace quickened. Once he found his passage up the rail Royal Boy was running down Melodic Rendezvous all the way to the line. It looked as if inexperience and a slight lack of pace cost him. A grade 1 on his second start under rules was always going to be a tall order but he had looked so promising at Cheltenham it was hoped, and in my case expected, that he would reverse the placings with Melodic Rendezvous. Unfortunately for his supporters, the exuberant jumping display was nowhere to be found. Conscious that he had been found wanting for pace at the death last time, Geraghty (on board Royal Boy) set out to be handy, if not make the running, in order to ensure that he was in the ideal position were it to turn into a sprint, having been left behind on debut. For a horse in need of the experience this tactic plainly backfired as he was still rather green while his jumping was abominable, losing ground at nearly every hurdle before he capitulated after second last. He still finished third, gaining invaluable experience, and in future with different tactics employed, preferably over further, he could still be a potent force in novice hurdles.

The final word goes to Court Minstrel who had the best form coming into Saturday’s race, having been impressive on his first start at Cheltenham and unlucky on his second behind Dodging Bullets and River Maigue. There were concerns expressed by his trainer, Evan Williams, that he may not handle the heavy ground and these concerns were borne out. He again travelled strongly through the race and came with a menacing run, along with the winner, on the approach to the second last but after being hemmed in for a few strides, his effort petered out tamely. A tired leap at the last nearly saw him come down, giving away third spot in the process. He is still a very useful novice hurdler, if not significantly better, and it would be folly to write him off just yet. His ideal conditions are relatively quick ground and a big field, until we see him face those he will be difficult to judge. Evan Williams seems to be favouring a go at a festival handicap in March and who could blame him? These defeats in unsuitable conditions can only land him on a very favourable mark.

Supreme Novices Update: Melodic Rendezvous, Pont Alexandre and Don Cossack

Last week felt somewhat light on potential Supreme Novice hurdlers, with, probably, the most informative race in that sphere coming at Cheltenham on Friday. Village Vic was made favourite primarily on the back of his useful looking second behind The New One at Cheltenham’s Showcase meeting in October and on the assumption that a drop back in trip in bad ground would see improvement from him. Unfortunately for connections, just like when behind Coneygree at Cheltenham’s Open meeting in November, Village Vic was a no show leaving those behind him in the market to fight it out.

On bumper form alone Melodic Rendezvous deserved to be favourite, following a saunter to victory round Chepstow he finished a good, but distant, second to Champagne Fever in Punchestown’s Champion Bumper, crucially, on heavy ground. It was also heavy ground at Cheltenham and there were doubts about most of his opponents in such testing conditions, yet it was still significantly less testing than Melodic Rendezvous had faced at Punchestown. It was strange then that his trainer, Jeremy Scott, made public his concerns over the ground and, although it could be put down to most trainers’ natural cautiousness, that must have contributed to him starting as big as 4/1, that, along with his previous start over hurdles at Exeter. There, he was seemingly beaten by a highly useful prospect in Mr Mole, but he was well beaten next time leaving some doubt over the form, despite the third winning on his next start. At Exeter it was over the same trip as at Cheltenham (2m1f) and he appeared to lack the pace of the winner there, suggesting a step up in trip may benefit him. After his win on Friday connections were of a similar mind, and while he did show pace at the weekend the gruelling conditions will have aided him as it brought out his stamina which, once the ground dries up, will more likely than not be used over trips in excess of two miles, with the expected Festival target at this stage being the Neptune. Were it to be soft in March Jeremy Scott and connections may change their minds but, while it is presumptive to judge the race at this stage, Friday’s contest does not look strong enough to suggest that Melodic Rendezvous deserves to be strongly considered as a major player for the Cheltenham Festival curtain raiser.

It may be harsh to take dim view of the race at this stage but the pace was muddling, with most of the field in relatively close proximity crossing the line. Melodic Rendezvous was quite impressive in the way he moved around and upsides those who had briefly denied him a clear run on approach to the last thus he certainly isn’t without considerable speed, but having been beaten for pace at Exeter it is hard to believe that the Cheltenham race was especially strong. Nick Schofield rode Melodic Rendezvous well on Friday, knowing he had a horse with enough class and experience the jockey brought his horse into the desired position when it necessitated, unlike the eye-catcher of the race, who chased him home in second, ROYAL BOY.

Nicky Henderson’s five-year-old was an easy winner of his point-to-point and joined the star trainer some time ago but a setback forced him out for the whole of last season. Friday was his hurdling debut after a significant layoff, and while he has everything in the looks department it was difficult to know what to expect from this son of Lavirco. After a couple of stuttering leaps he really took to hurdling, attacking the flights with precision, he was quick through the air and he demonstrated just what scope he has, pointing to his real future over the larger obstacles. He travelled strongly through the race but as Barry Geraghty took Royal Boy wide round the home turn, in order to find his favoured stands rail, he was slightly outpaced with a wall of horses in front of him and the Nigel Twiston-Davies runner, Imperial Leader, slowing down on the rail blocking his path through. Once the gap appeared after the last Geraghty went after Royal Boy and he picked up quickly, storming home but never looking like reaching the winner who was already clear, Melodic Rendezvous’ extra experience told.

Royal Boy is an exciting prospect on that evidence and for a winning pointer, much like River Maigue at Cheltenham’s November meeting, the slow pace and sprint up the hill would not have played to his strengths. It is possible that he will be seen to better effect over further but I felt he showed that he had enough toe through the race to suggest that a truly run two miles could suit him, once he gains more experience it could be dangerous to write him off in stronger races over that trip. Despite the winner being well thought of, for whom a fruitful hurdling campaign was expected, the horse to take from the race must be Nicky Henderson’s charge.

Back in third on Friday was Eduard, who having given six pounds to the front two ran a solid race however I am not convinced he ran to his best and there is more to come, possibly up in trip and on better ground. The other main protagonist, who was expected to run well, was Alan King’s flashy chestnut, Valdez, but sadly he was disappointing like Village Vic. Valdez seemed to travel well for a long way but was clearly running too free on that ground and he almost certainly failed to handle the testing conditions. While he may not have been up to this class in any case, Valdez has valuable races in him and Alan King should get back on track without too much difficulty.  

NAVAN

This blog has become almost exclusively about those horses and races that could have an impact on the Supreme Novices Hurdle but I feel it would be remiss of me not to mention the Navan Novice Hurdle (G1) on Sunday, a race likely to have far more impact on novice hurdles over three miles than two.

The race beforehand was all about Gordon Elliott’s star horse, Don Cossack. Very exciting in bumpers, this giant son of Sholokhov won nicely on hurdling debut, with the odd jumping blemish, and was expected to prove unbeatable over the longer trip with that experience behind him. However, he was comprehensively beaten by Pont Alexandre, an expensive French recruit for Rich Ricci and Willie Mullins, even before he, literally, fell in a hole after the last.

With Ruby Walsh, evidently full of confidence, on board Pont Alexandre set off in front and was never headed. He was brisk over his hurdles nearly throughout, with only a tendency to jump slightly right worth noting, though that is only a very minor concern. This was an impressive performance from a four-year-old in a Grade 1 on only his second hurdling start and first in Ireland. The most striking part of this display was the manner in which he drew away from the hyped-up Gigginstown gelding between two out and the last. Victory was sealed when he cleared the final flight and as Mullins said afterwards ‘he could still be anything.’ There is a chance he needs very soft ground, with him apparently only impressing at home once the ground became heavy but I wouldn’t get too caught up in that and while he should be fully effective in a race like the Neptune, at this moment in time, that looks like the novice event of the Festival. Pont Alexandre ran like a real stayer on Sunday and, despite Coneygree winning with something to spare again at Cheltenham on Saturday, the Albert Bartlett might be his for the taking. 

Don Cossack, known as “The Don” at home, disappointed. He is a big unit who has his own jumping technique, sadly for his supporters that technique is less than desirable and it wouldn’t be harsh to describe his as clumsy. It is too early to write him off, the esteem in which he’s held by his trainer is enough to justify giving him a few more chances, as was the imperious nature of his last three bumper runs. He still has untapped potential over hurdles but unless his jumping improves dramatically, Cheltenham aspirations will have to be put on hold for at least this season. Connections of Don Cossack have been keen to emphasise that they want to tread carefully with him as chasing will be his forte. That will be something to look forward to, but as the jumps season revolves around Cheltenham he could have a major problem when it comes to March, either over hurdles or fences, and that is a need for soft ground. I would be surprised if he acts on anything quicker, and even more surprised if his connections risked him on it.