To lose
their chance at Festival glory in the most exciting race of them all (arguably)
on the day before the race must have been agonising for the connections of
Melodic Rendezvous. His season had been carefully orchestrated by Jeremy Scott
and he was among the leading contenders for the Supreme until fate intervened.
Last season, despite not getting the opportunity to prove me right or wrong, I
suspect I was guilty of underrating Melodic Rendezvous. The horses he beat
often appeared to have valid excuses and I struggled to get too excited about
him but in reality he was a rapidly progressing novice set to peak for
Cheltenham. His performance at Wincanton on Saturday certainly gave an
indication of what he might have achieved had he made it to the start.
Defeating a fully fit Far West in that manner was hugely impressive and I will
try not to underestimate him in future. This season, Minella Foru might fit
into the same mould as Melodic Rendezvous in that he is easy to underrate and excuses
for his main rival on Sunday were evident for all to see.
Minella Foru began his hurdling career
in good style at Listowel, having previously
taken the eye of point-to-point followers at Lemonfield, yet despite Eddie
Harty not hiding the regard in which he is held the four-year-old was still
trumped in the Navan market on Sunday by Gigginstown’s exciting prospect, Very
Wood. The pace set by the market leader was ponderous at best, but Minella Foru
dealt with it well. He was keen but not in a way that would prove detrimental
to his chances, while his jumping was little short of ideal for a two mile
novice hurdler. There was barely a semblance of a mistake, so swift over the obstacles;
he hurdled with a fluency that was all the more striking given the leader’s
antics. As the pace quickened from the third last, Minella Foru responded
willingly to his rider AP McCoy’s urgings, picking up well to reach and pass
Very Wood. This performance showed off plenty of Minella Foru’s assets,
particularly his speed which will serve him well as he steps up in class but as
a contest the race was somewhat unsatisfactory and his superiority over the
second, at the line, could be misleading.
Very Wood was among a batch of point-to-pointers
who were trained by Gordon Elliott before being sent elsewhere for their novice
hurdle careers. Following a narrow defeat in his first point-to-point, Very
Wood took his second in style defeating Champagne Tara, a bumper winner for
Jonjo O’Neill since, by four lengths. Before losing him for this season,
Elliott ran him in a lucrative Punchestown Festival bumper in which he again
ran out an easy winner. One could not help but look forward to his future over
obstacles after that and, having moved to Noel Meade, he delivered what many
expected on his hurdling debut at Galway. Davy Russell gradually wound the race
up from the front pulling nicely clear of the second and a long way clear of
the third. He shaped like a relentless galloper on this occasion with a step up
in trip looking inevitable. Noel Meade clearly didn’t share that view, deciding
instead to stick to two miles on Sunday. There was enough to take from his
previous run to suggest he could remain successful over the minimum trip,
assuming he could gallop his rivals into submission. Very Wood’s jumping around
the right-handed Galway was adequate, with no causes for concern, and
connections were confident of a smart performance.
If Minella
Foru is a serious candidate for the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle then going down a
length-and-a-half was a smart performance for a horse like Very Wood who is a
classic Gigginstown prospect, unlikely to reach his full potential until he
sees three miles and fences. Very Wood and Minella Foru are different types of
horses and the sprint for home would have suited the former far less than the
latter. Davy Russell, making the running on Very Wood, had the opportunity to
set a real test but his mount did very little to help their cause. He lugged
right from the start, jumped out to the right at each hurdle, with varying
degrees of severity, and even struggled to navigate some of the left-handed
bends. He must have given away a significant amount of ground to his rivals and
it is tempting to think that without the wayward tendencies or on a right-handed
track, he would have come out on top. However, it also the case that Very Wood
was better placed for the sprint finish, than the resulting winner, having had
his own way out in front. While AP McCoy, renowned for his strength in a finish
when necessary, was hardly all out to settle matters aboard Minella Foru.
Such was the
farcical nature of the race it is difficult to draw too many conclusions about
the respective merits of the front two. In terms of the Supreme, Very Wood was
always more likely to excel over further and, now there appears to be a problem
with left-handed tracks, connections may already be looking past Cheltenham to
Punchestown for their long term targets. I am trying to keep an open mind with
regards to Minella Foru. There is the slight possibility that Very Wood is
exceptional and Minella Foru did well to beat him but
if he wants to become a top two mile novice he would have to beat a stayer like
Very Wood in this manner especially considering the circumstances. Eddie Harty
has suggested that his next run will be in the Royal Bond Novice Hurdle on
December 1 or the Future Champions Novice Hurdle at Leopardstown's Christmas
meeting. Either way we will learn more about his Supreme credentials then as he
takes on the best available in Ireland. Despite his precise jumping and rare
natural speed the likelihood of meeting rivals from higher profile yards means
he may well be underestimated again.
Betfair’s Super Saturday at Newbury lost some of its lustre
with the decisions not to run Long Run or Simonsig in their respective prep
races for the Festival. This left the card without a serious Arkle/Champion
Chase contender and Silviniaco Conti with a seemingly straightforward task in
the Denman Chase. Racing is rarely as simple as that though and it delivered
more than enough excitement to make up for Nicky Henderson’s cautiousness. Ironically
it was Henderson’s own My Tent Or Yours who really lit up Saturday’s card and
the whole weekend. Prior to the Betfair Hurdle My Tent Or Yours was a rare
beast in that his Cheltenham target was inevitable, evident from a very early
stage, well it was until he did that!
After his scintillating display on Saturday My Tent Or Yours
is quite rightly being talked up as a Champion Hurdle horse and he would not be
out of place in that field, rather a deserved leading contender. The one
issue left with Nicky Henderson’s charge, having sorted out his
jumping at Huntingdon, was his free-going nature. He had been over-exuberant
and keen in each run so far, the concern being whether he could find enough off
the bridle after using up so much energy in a race against higher quality
opposition. This frailty was harshly exposed by The New One in last season’s
exceptional renewal of the Aintree Bumper. My Tent Or Yours is a better,
stronger individual now but this was still a minor worry in a ‘competitive’
race like the Betfair Hurdle. As such I expected him to be settled in rear and
pick off the other runners one by one, much like he had tried and failed to do on
his last visit to Newbury. Maybe in the knowledge that there were few, if any,
horses involved willing to set the pace or maybe just with supreme confidence
AP McCoy crossed the tape, near enough, in front. From then on it was McCoy’s
mission to settle him, My Tent Or Yours still pulled against his rider but
McCoy was able drop him back as they left the home straight for the
first time. In a seemingly ideal position on the inside rail,
McCoy was in search of cover all the way up the back straight, just making sure
he could keep a lid on all the enthusiasm and speed underneath him. As the
field entered the home straight My Tent Or Yours had moved up into fifth and as
commentator Richard Hoiles pointed out it was plain to see that McCoy was
intent on slipstreaming the mare, Swing Bowler, for as long as he could. As
the leaders drew away from the third last My Tent Or Yours was still pulling as
he latched right onto the tail of Swing Bowler, before moving out to jump the
second last. At that moment there was only one horse catching the eye and it
became a matter of how far. Finally let go by McCoy at the last, the Desert
Prince gelding rapped the hurdle as his acceleration got the better of him
before powering clear under hands and heels, eventually easing down to a five
length victory.
There is little more that he could have done here, his
jumping was neat and fast, particularly at the second where he was unsighted thereby
forcing him in close to the hurdle but he was extraordinarily nimble over it,
thanks in no small part, I am sure, to AP McCoy’s intensive schooling. My Tent
Or Yours found plenty off the bridle, putting an eight or nine length gap on
the field as he was let down, before being eased. Despite the steady pace set
the form could not look much stronger, with nothing in there holding it down
and three thoroughly progressive handicappers filling the places. Cotton Mill
had been well fancied for this, primarily on the back of his run in the Neptune
where he was travelling nearly as well as Simonsig at the second last before
running out in spectacular fashion. His impressive performance here does make
the decision to run Cotton Mill over three miles straight after his Cheltenham
calamity seem somewhat perplexing and with connections' desire to avoid heavy
ground at all costs, the rain, sleet and snow which greeted us at Newbury on
Saturday can’t have benefitted him. Neither was the race run especially to suit
as he would have preferred a stronger pace, he lacked the speed of the winner,
but then most jumpers do, and arguably Swing Bowler before his stamina kicked
in, finishing strongly into second. There is clearly more to come, even before
taking into account that this was his first run for 302 days, and he is an
exciting prospect wherever he goes. A trip to the Champion Hurdle would not be unthinkable
and were My Tent Or Yours to revert to novice company he would be a fascinating
barometer of the Betfair Hurdle form. This could well be one of the strongest handicap
hurdles of the whole season and it must be wise to consider strongly the likes
of Swing Bowler and Dark Lover for the County Hurdle, Village Vic for the Coral
Cup and even Caid Du Berlais for the Fred Winter, having shown up well for a
long way despite running wide and being out of the weights.
I am struggling to find any negatives around My Tent Or
Yours' chances for the Supreme Novices Hurdle and he is a worthy favourite,
having usurped fellow JP McManus purchase Jezki. Ominously for his rivals, My
Tent Or Yours has shown that he handles testing conditions while he is likely
to improve for a quicker surface. He just has so much pace and as I suggested
after his last run there was nothing in the Betfair
Hurdle that could live with him. The only question left for me about My Tent Or
Yours is whether something like the completely unexposed Un Atout is better,
although the question that might prove more pertinent in the lead up to the
Cheltenham Festival is whether it is Un Atout’s fellow Closutton
inmate Hurricane Fly who is better?
Also in the care of Willie Mullins in
Closutton, County Carlow is last season’s Champion Bumper winner Champagne
Fever. Every indication was that he was going to prove to be substantially
better over further than two miles, especially his defeat to Jezki at the start
of the season where it looked only a matter of time before he was stepped up in
trip on his way to Cheltenham for either the Neptune or Albert Bartlett novice
hurdles. Yet on his first run over two-and-a-half miles he ran deplorably
although that was down to a respiratory tract infection discovered subsequently.
Understandably Willie Mullins gave him a reasonable break to recover from his illness and it was only after apparently impressing in a piece of work that the
trainer decided to run him in the Deloitte Novice Hurdle (Leopardstown) on
Saturday instead of the aforementioned Un Atout. This was over two miles and
two furlongs and was assumed to be Champagne Fever’s prep for the Neptune,
especially with the presence of Pique Sous and Mozoltov, alongside Un Atout, as
Supreme Novice contenders. Such is the owner’s strength in the novice hurdle
divisions, however, he already has leading fancies in the Neptune and Albert
Bartlett. With the desire to have a runner in each Festival race, Champagne
Fever’s winning form over two miles at Cheltenham and his proximity to long time Supreme
Favourite Jezki on just his second start over hurdles, it is hard to argue Rich
Ricci’s decision isn’t justified.
During Saturday’s race the fall, at the
second, of main rival Waaheb handed Champagne Fever a relatively
straightforward task, assuming he was none the worse for his previous
infection. Under an aggressive ride from new pilot Paul Townend, this willing
son of Stowaway set a tempo likely to expose any weakness in his opposition and
bring his strength, stamina, to the fore. Aside from a not insignificant
mistake at the first his jumping was accomplished and if he is to try similar
tactics in the Supreme his jumping will need to be absolutely foot perfect.
Here it nearly was as he took lengths out of his challengers at most obstacles,
there is a special chaser in there waiting to get out and it is a shame we
didn’t see him over fences this season. All bar Bright New Dawn were left
toiling in behind Champagne Fever, whose prodigious galloping was too much for
the rest to handle. Bright New Dawn did look a serious danger in on the run
up to the last, having travelled sweetly with the guidance of Davy Russell, but
the victory was sealed by the gangly grey with another fluent leap at the final flight,
as he was always going to outstay his Dessie Hughes trained opponent.
Ruby Walsh has a very tough decision to make
as he has the option of riding Dodging Bullets, for Paul Nicholls, and Pique
Sous, Mozoltov and now Champagne Fever, for Willie Mullins, in the Supreme. I
would suggest he rides Champagne Fever as there is no doubt in my mind that he
is the best horse in that foursome, the worry would be whether he will be
effective enough over the minimum trip. The Neptune looks made for him but with
the presence of the inimitable Pont Alexandre, the Supreme it will have to be. Whether
he can reverse early season form with Jezki is highly doubtful and Bright New
Dawn gave that horse another boost having been eight lengths behind in the Future
Champions Novice Hurdle. There is also the matter of whether Champagne Fever
can hold off a number of far speedier types as he is sent for home, but such is
his class I suspect there is every chance that he can hold off enough to be right
there at the last and whatever happens it will be a tantalising spectacle.
On Sunday, we saw a highly anticipated clash
between two more horses that, earlier in the season, I had expected to go down
the Neptune novices hurdle route. Melodic Rendezvous and Puffin Billy were both
comfortable winners on their last start, winning a grade 1 and a grade 2
respectively. Both are extremely well regarded by connections and both sets were
convinced they were going to win at Exeter. Despite Melodic Rendezvous being
the grade 1 winner it was Puffin Billy who was sent off the odds on favourite.
Oliver Sherwood’s son of Heron Island had looked awesome in two bumpers and two
novice hurdles to date, showing a combination of pace and power that marked him
out as a danger to all with Cheltenham on the horizon, yet it was the locally trained
(to Exeter) Melodic Rendezvous who came out comprehensively on top.
Nick Schofield was under the impression that
Puffin Billy was more of a stayer than his mount Melodic Rendezvous. Believing
he could beat him for speed Schofield tracked Puffin Billy nearly throughout
the contest, only making his challenge at the last. The torrential rain in the
morning had left the ground bordering on bottomless but both of the main
protagonists in this five runner affair had experience on this sort of surface,
as a result it was not expected to inconvenience either and it is hard to say
it did. Melodic Rendezvous again jumped well throughout, he is a natural
hurdler, and Puffin Billy seemingly improved his hurdling technique but one
serious blunder two out probably sealed his fate. At the last the two were side
by side but Leighton Aspell had been hard at Puffin Billy for most of the
straight whilst Nick Schofield had been motionless on Melodic Rendezvous. Once
asked he quickened away instantly, leaving the struggling Puffin Billy for
dead. On the face of it this was an exciting performance from a progressive
novice and he has definitely improved physically through the season (compared
to when I saw him at Cheltenham anyway) but the manner in which Puffin Billy made such hard
work of it from so far out suggested that there was something amiss with him
and he was later discovered to be lame, thus explaining the lack of correlation
between how he had run up until then and how he ran on Sunday.
It is far from ideal for Puffin Billy and his
connections’ Cheltenham aspirations to run such a lacklustre race so near to
the Festival but it would be wrong to judge him on this performance and he is
still a hugely promising horse. It would also, therefore, be wrong to draw too
many hard and fast conclusions about the winner Melodic Rendezvous. What I can
reiterate is that he jumps well and he clearly has a dangerous turn of foot but
he is yet to show me that he has the star potential that will be necessary to
win this season’s Supreme. I was concerned after his grade 1 win that I could be underestimating him, and that is still the case
but it is just too easy to knock the Tolworth form, while he was lucky in my
opinion to win at Cheltenham and on hurdling debut he was defeated by Mr Mole
who has just won a minor handicap off a mark of 126. Now, that fails to tell the
whole story as Mr Mole is another promising sort who won emphatically but that
has to be a concern for Melodic Rendezvous supporters, especially as it was on
the quickest ground he has faced over hurdles. Were Cheltenham to be heavy I
think he would suddenly become an interesting player but I expect he will
struggle on a sounder surface against the calibre of opposition expected at the Festival.
Following
Sunday’s win bookmakers shortened up Melodic Rendezvous into 8/1 generally for
the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle. This was an overreaction especially as his only
rival in the listed race was pronounced lame soon after. With a foot problem
diagnosed and confirmed later this race at Exeter was an uninformative contest.
It should not have affected his price to such an extent, I see him as a 12/1
shot at best especially when there are murmurings that he could switch to the
Neptune on quicker ground.
Freezing temperatures and snow are two forecasts which bring
dread to those within racing. Sadly, that is what we face and informative cards
at Newbury, Wincanton and Taunton are all under threat this week whilst the
highest profile meetings on Saturday, at Ascot and Haydock, are also in danger
with the loss of the Supreme Novices’ Trial hurdle a real possibility. The
Grade 1 Victor Chandler Chase may be a more pressing issue but that will, no
doubt, be rearranged, probably on Cheltenham Trials day, whereas the Supreme
trial will just be lost and it is events such as these which interest me most
in the build up to the Festival. I hope I am being unnecessarily pessimistic
and the frost covers will do their job but I find it hard to believe that racing
will be unaffected. Fortunately, we did nearly manage a full, if slightly
uninspiring, programme this weekend (only Fakenham failed to beat the weather)
and the highlight, in terms of the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle build up, came on Friday at Huntingdon.
My Tent Or Yours
has been highly touted ever since his bumper debut and he looked a potential
Supreme Novice even before his hurdling exploits. The pace and class he exhibited
in bumpers, along with his grade 1 form marked him out as strong candidate,
then after his hurdling debut, where he defeated subsequent grade 1 winning hurdler Taquin Du
Seuil he was rightly among the favourites for Cheltenham’s curtain raiser. His next run at Newbury could
be described, harshly in my view, as a blip but there were positives to be
garnered from it, especially the improvement in his jumping, and ensuing events
have demonstrated that this run was merely a means to an end. In order to
qualify for the valuable Betfair Handicap Hurdle, at Newbury in February, My
Tent Or Yours had to have run three times over hurdles prior to January 13th.
It was clear before the race at Newbury that Henderson would have preferred not to
run him, and he would probably have pulled him out on that ground had there not
been this ‘plan’ but in order to get a third run in, he had to run that day. As
a result, McCoy was hardly aggressive once he knew the winner was not for
catching, he had future targets in mind, the most imminent being his third run
which was to come at Huntingdon just thirteen days later. This was no ‘gimme’, with
a pair of high class bumper performers, namely Population and Royal Guardsman, up
against him, as well as God’s Own, an impressive winning debutant over hurdles.
Population and Royal Guardsman had been disappointing on their hurdling debuts
for different reasons but more was expected on Friday, however neither of them,
nor any of his other rivals, were capable of giving meaningful opposition to AP
McCoy’s mount.
My Tent Or Yours, as was the case on his two previous starts
this season, was consciously held up in rear by McCoy. Under
restraint, he was keen again and he pulled his way into midfield almost
immediately. Nicky Henderson said after the race that he is concerned about his
charge not using his energy in the right way and again here he travelled
noticeably strongly but unlike Newbury, McCoy let My Tent Or Yours take him
forward. He was eventually taken to the front on the approach to three out and
from then on the race looked in safe keeping.
Royal Guardsman was again bitterly disappointing here, with
the change of trainer seemingly doing him no favours. It could be that they are
struggling to get him fit and he needed his first two runs of the season, in
which case it is possible to give him one more chance. I hope he can get back
to his bumper form as he treated two high class rivals, Atlantic Roller and
Supreme second favourite River Maigue, with contempt at Ascot last season. He
should really be a novice hurdler worth following. As should Population, who
has recovered from whatever ailed him at Cheltenham and he put in a much more
encouraging performance this weekend. We should see improvement from him on better ground
as, like My Tent Or Yours, he showed plenty of pace in bumpers.
This was a more than reasonable novices' hurdle and connections
of My Tent Or Yours can only take positives from it. In comparison to his
hurdling debut, where his jumping was sloppy, he hurdled quickly and barely
touched a flight. The only jump one could possibly question was at the final
hurdle but he was being eased up almost as soon as he crossed the second last,
therefore running down that one obstacle was completely excusable. This
performance put him back on track for the Supreme, a track I doubt he was ever
off, and nothing this side of the Irish Sea likely to head for the Supreme has left
such a striking impression. I would be surprised if there were many faster
national hunt horses in training and assuming the ground isn’t heavy, as it was
on his last unsuccessful trip to Newbury, I can’t see anything in the entries
for the Betfair Hurdle being able to live with him. He is deservedly favourite
for that, as I type, and his price for the Supreme can only contract with a
strong showing there. My Tent Or Yours still appears to be underestimated by a
number of firms with double figure prices widely available.
The one concern around him, which has recently
arisen, is the high profile acquisition of Supreme Novices’ favourite, Jezki,
by JP McManus. Some have suggested this is a sign that he does not fancy what
he already has for the Supreme and or that it increases the likelihood of My
Tent Or Yours missing the race, in favour of a tilt at the Neptune or Aintree. I
take the view that McManus enjoys having a clutch of top class horses, he doesn’t
seem to mind running more than one in the best races, and he already has
experience of Jezki’s family with the likes of Jered and Jenari proving successful
purchases. It could be described as a no-brainer for a man in his position. I also struggle to believe that My Tent Or Yours will stay the Neptune
trip, or at least be anywhere near as good over it. Hence, that option is defunct,
while McManus has used the Betfair Hurdle as a stepping stone to the Supreme
before, with both Get Me Out Of Here and Darlan going on to fill the runners-up
berth at Cheltenham, as such there should be no issue with repeating such a
feat, just the hope of going one better in March. Nicky Henderson has been convinced
since the start of the season that this son of Desert Prince is his best novice
hurdle prospect, thus it will take some serious persuasion for him not to run
this Supreme Novices’ Hurdle aspirant at Cheltenham.
