Supreme Novices Update: Irving and Volnay De Thaix

Before the familiar festive feast of fixtures it is worth touching on the Grade 2 Kennel Gate Novices hurdle run at Ascot last Friday, where the winner produced an even clearer indication that he will be a leading player in the 2014 Supreme. There were reasons to be dissatisfied with the race as a whole but Irving was a comprehensive winner and appears to have a future bright enough to match his burgeoning reputation.

IRVING 

Since his electric display at Taunton, trainer Paul Nicholls and rider Nick Schofield have barely contained their excitement about this son of Singspiel. He is demonstrably an exuberant work-horse and fortunately he translates that to the track. I am generally wary of former flat performers making the grade in a Supreme and the style of his victory at Ascot on his previous start combined with his history on the level suggested to me that this was a horse all about speed. He had so far, on admittedly limited evidence, produced bursts of speed in sprint finishes that his inferior rivals understandably could not match. Already, Aintree stood out as a long term goal for Irving, the flat track ideally suited to the flat recruit. The stamina sapping two mile test of Cheltenham, where thorough stayers have been able come to the fore, didn’t fit what I saw as being Irving’s ideal but after his most recent display in demanding conditions off a far from farcical pace it would be remiss of anyone to use a lack of stamina as an excuse to oppose him.

Among Irving’s opposition on Friday was Splash Of Ginge, for Nigel Twiston-Davies, who had set a strong pace when emphatically seeing off a field of 7 at Aintree last time out and he attempted to make all once again. His presence meant the race was relatively truly run for a small field novices’ hurdle and it allowed Nick Schofield to settle his potentially keen five-year-old in rear. Despite flattening the second flight, which in fairness cost him no momentum, he was fluid over his obstacles and he shapes like a natural jumper, a point exemplified by the last where his greater aptitude for the task saw him pick his legs up higher and faster than Prince Siegfried who fell when upsides, having taken off from the same point. Prince Siegfried showed significant improvement from his narrow defeat of My Wigwam Or Yours to be in with a shout before this calamity. He was coming off second best and it is difficult to be sure how much he would have found after the last, however, assuming such a heavy fall has not left a mark this was a hugely encouraging effort from another smart flat recruit to the superlative Bloomfields operation.

Having travelled comfortably throughout, Nick Schofield was only pressed into action aboard Irving after jumping the penultimate flight as the aforementioned Prince Siegfried closed the inviting gap Irving was trying to move into. This posed no real problem as Schofield switched his mount around Denis O’Regan’s and with a shake of the reins Irving was immediately alongside. As the pair quickened clear of the eventual second and third Irving seemed to be in charge of the contest and pulled further clear as he was left in front at the final obstacle. His notable acceleration had been seen over hurdles before and again it settled matters in style on Friday yet on this occasion, in a race that was more than a sprint, he saw the race out strongly beating two rivals who weren’t stopping. The impression left by Paul Nicholls’ charge must be mitigated the fall of Prince Siegfried as he surely would have finished within the final six lengths margin of victory while the same could be said for Volnay De Thaix who was staying on nicely before being hampered. Of course Irving was hardly all out himself and without being pressed after the last he could not be tested to his limit.

As an individual, Irving is hard to find fault with. He has matured with each start and his nickname ‘Concorde’ speaks for itself. Nonetheless, he is not obliterating his fields and despite Volnay De Thaix having the potential beforehand, he has yet to face another high class rival or one who could be considered a Supreme contender. He has done more than enough though and he is bound to face such a foe(s) if he heads to the Tolworth next. We will learn even more about him there, or wherever he goes, the listed race at Exeter in early February may be another viable option (Puffin Billy attempted the double before taking his chance in the Supreme) and in an open year the 14/1 still available for the Festival curtain raiser is on the generous side.

Prince Siegfried is probably behind the likes of Mijhaar and Dubai Prince (entered in the Grade 1 Future Champions Novice Hurdle at Leopardstown on Friday) in the Bloomfields novice hurdling pecking order and the same would be said about Volnay De Thaix who sits behind the likes of West Wizard and Josses Hill, another classy winner this week. Like Josses Hill, Volnay De Thaix is very much a raw chaser on looks and was probably doing well to produce such a promising performance against the sharp, flat types he faced on Friday. There will have been a tinge of disappointment given he was backed into odds-on favouritism, the second Judy Wilson owned novice hurdler defeated last week following Tistory on Wednesday, but in his two previous efforts over hurdles, while totally dominant, he faced a set of opponents severely lacking in ability. This was evidently not the case at Ascot and as the pace picked up in the straight he found it tough going under Barry Geraghty, coming off the bridle earlier than his rivals, patently lacking the speed of Irving and Prince Siegfried. His jumping did, however, stand up under pressure which bodes well for the future. He would have finished considerably more than a short head in front of Splash Of Ginge (to whom he was giving three pounds) were it not for being hampered and the Secret Singer gelding ran very much as if further would suit him in this better company. That does not make him a Neptune contender but he should still hold his own over intermediate trips, particularly if they try to exploit his handicap mark, before being sent over fences, perhaps next season, when he will have hopefully grown up (described as a “big baby” by connections after his first two runs in this country) and in that sphere Volnay De Thaix will prove an even more exciting prospect. 

VOLNAY DE THAIX

Supreme Novices Update: Sky Bet Supreme Trial Novices' Hurdle

The more I watch racing the more I think trainer form is important. There are any number of yards whose horses are different beasts when they turn up to the racecourse with the yard “in form”. Spotting when a trainer is about to hit form or acknowledging how well their horses are running at an early stage is an invaluable tool, as is sensing when a team of horses are starting to struggle. The problem is, as with almost everything in racing, it’s not an exact science. Deciding at the right time that a yard is out of form is difficult because short-term results can be misleading. It is so often the case during the Cheltenham Festival that a major trainer has a number of fancied runners on one day which all seem to under-perform, resulting in murmurings of concern about the yard’s horses. Then the next day they will have winners of the highest profile. Some take the view that the very best horses can rise above the form of the yard and it would have been possible to argue that on Sunday had David Pipe not had a one-two in the opening conditional jockeys’ handicap hurdle. In reality, too much weight was put on the performances of his runners over the first two days of Cheltenham’s Open Meeting and evidently questioning the yard’s form was a far too short-termist approach.

The Liquidator

Among David Pipe’s battalion on Sunday were three of his smartest prospects. All three were successful but none were more exciting than The Liquidator who confirmed the abundant promise he had shown on hurdling debut at Carlisle. Much of the talk in the build up to Sunday’s race was concerning the reappearance of Supreme ante-post favourite, West Wizard. Few horses have been built up more this season than the son of Westerner but connections sensibly decided to skip the race in order to give him a simpler assignment for his first start over hurdles. His presence would naturally have frightened off a few rivals, hence it was disappointing in his absence for the race to cut up so badly to only four runners. All four were at least coming into the race on the back of a win over hurdles, while Sea Lord was looking to make it seven wins in a row for the Bloomfields operation and was made favourite to do so.

A small field increases the likelihood of a tactical, falsely run race and as the runners trundled to the start nothing looked enamoured with the idea of setting the pace. Tom Scudamore, keen to avoid the fate which befell Oscar Whisky over fences on Friday, took the initiative knowing The Liquidator had made all in a similarly small field at Exeter last season and his bumper performances suggested he would not excel in a sprint. It did seem odd that Daryl Jacob decided to track the pace on Lac Fontana having posted a bloodless victory from the front over the course in October and given the doubts over two miles being enough of a test for him in decent company. He cut out very tamely from the third last, however, indicating perhaps that whatever his rider did he would not have been a factor in the result. Lac Fontana had never given the impression he was capable of having an impact in a race as competitive as the Supreme and this display ruled out that possibility. Whether a problem is found or not one imagines he will be given a break and return over a longer trip.

Ploughing a lone furrow out in front was far from ideal for The Liquidator but he has an enviable attitude and gave no hint that he was anything other than willing. Enthusiastic, accurate jumping characterised his victory at Carlisle and it was the same at Cheltenham. He has such tremendous spring in his legs it is hard to envisage him making a mistake. The only minor issue came at the third last where he jumped impressively, as ever, but landed in a chewed up piece of turf, nodding slightly as his hooves dug in. This is particularly pernickety though as one would be hard pushed to find a novice who jumps better.

For the first part of the race Scudamore only set steady fractions on The Liquidator, allowing each runner to take the first three flights in their stride as they travelled within themselves. He then quickened the pace on the approach to the fourth hurdle, an injection which his rivals, particularly Sea Lord, struggled to cope with. Sea Lord’s inability to handle, national hunt bred, The Liquidator’s speed is ironic given his flat pedigree/past and many felt two miles round Cheltenham would prove an insufficient test for The Liquidator, not vice versa. Essentially, the race was settled from that moment on as Sea Lord, Lac Fontana and Minellaforleisure found the test more and more exacting.

This was a destructive performance from David Pipe’s charge, he pulled a long way clear of a group of smart rivals with the winning distance of fifteen lengths underestimating his superiority. He already looks to have what is required to win a Supreme Novices’ Hurdle, exemplary jumping, Grade 1 bumper winning form, he is tactically versatile, handles any ground and has winning form around Cheltenham over hurdles as well as a prominent showing in the Champion Bumper like the last three Supreme winners. There was a general feeling before the season started that The Liquidator was more of a staying type with the Neptune standing out as his preferred long term target but he proved he had the speed on Sunday, having won the “Supreme Trial”, and all roads must lead to the Festival’s opener. The Liquidator is available at 14/1 for the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle at the moment and that appears generous even at this early stage, he is ready made for the test a Supreme would present and in my opinion deserves to be favourite.  

If there is a danger of getting carried away with The Liquidator’s stellar performance it is because the favourite on Sunday, Sea Lord may not have given his running. He was in trouble from such an early stage, having been caught out by The Liquidator’s acceleration, that his ability to handle the track and or wellbeing can come into question but I prefer to see it as the first time he met a high class rival, in form. The son of Cape Cross just lacks the substantial ability of the winner and the jockey reported Sea Lord needs further in this higher company, consequently the Neptune is now being considered. Improvement can be expected over a longer trip, in view of his late surge up the demanding Cheltenham hill, but I would be reluctant to suggest he could make up into a Grade 1 performer and his jumping would surely come under scrutiny again having made a blunder at the third last here. He did finish second in the end yet he only just collared the outsider of the field, Minellaforleisure on the line. Minellaforleisure easily won an uncompetitive novice event at Wincanton last time out but he was thought to be some way below this level. An enterprising ride saw him move through the race like the second best horse and this performance suggests he was underrated having only recently got over the physical problems that plagued him last season. The assumption that Sea Lord was a significantly better animal than Minellaforleisure over this trip seems inaccurate and the King’s Theatre gelding deserves to be taken seriously this campaign for all his handicap mark will suffer after this.

The Liquidator was not the only potential Supreme Novices’ candidate to deliver at Cheltenham for David Pipe as Red Sherlock took the traditionally strong bumper in style. The prospect of seeing him over hurdles is thrilling and if The Liquidator is going to come up short in the novice hurdle division it will probably be due to the likes of him; the imposing, flashy performers, replete with talent.  

Supreme Novices Update: Minella Foru & Very Wood

To lose their chance at Festival glory in the most exciting race of them all (arguably) on the day before the race must have been agonising for the connections of Melodic Rendezvous. His season had been carefully orchestrated by Jeremy Scott and he was among the leading contenders for the Supreme until fate intervened. Last season, despite not getting the opportunity to prove me right or wrong, I suspect I was guilty of underrating Melodic Rendezvous. The horses he beat often appeared to have valid excuses and I struggled to get too excited about him but in reality he was a rapidly progressing novice set to peak for Cheltenham. His performance at Wincanton on Saturday certainly gave an indication of what he might have achieved had he made it to the start. Defeating a fully fit Far West in that manner was hugely impressive and I will try not to underestimate him in future. This season, Minella Foru might fit into the same mould as Melodic Rendezvous in that he is easy to underrate and excuses for his main rival on Sunday were evident for all to see.   

Minella Foru began his hurdling career in good style at Listowel, having previously taken the eye of point-to-point followers at Lemonfield, yet despite Eddie Harty not hiding the regard in which he is held the four-year-old was still trumped in the Navan market on Sunday by Gigginstown’s exciting prospect, Very Wood. The pace set by the market leader was ponderous at best, but Minella Foru dealt with it well. He was keen but not in a way that would prove detrimental to his chances, while his jumping was little short of ideal for a two mile novice hurdler. There was barely a semblance of a mistake, so swift over the obstacles; he hurdled with a fluency that was all the more striking given the leader’s antics. As the pace quickened from the third last, Minella Foru responded willingly to his rider AP McCoy’s urgings, picking up well to reach and pass Very Wood. This performance showed off plenty of Minella Foru’s assets, particularly his speed which will serve him well as he steps up in class but as a contest the race was somewhat unsatisfactory and his superiority over the second, at the line, could be misleading.

Very Wood was among a batch of point-to-pointers who were trained by Gordon Elliott before being sent elsewhere for their novice hurdle careers. Following a narrow defeat in his first point-to-point, Very Wood took his second in style defeating Champagne Tara, a bumper winner for Jonjo O’Neill since, by four lengths. Before losing him for this season, Elliott ran him in a lucrative Punchestown Festival bumper in which he again ran out an easy winner. One could not help but look forward to his future over obstacles after that and, having moved to Noel Meade, he delivered what many expected on his hurdling debut at Galway. Davy Russell gradually wound the race up from the front pulling nicely clear of the second and a long way clear of the third. He shaped like a relentless galloper on this occasion with a step up in trip looking inevitable. Noel Meade clearly didn’t share that view, deciding instead to stick to two miles on Sunday. There was enough to take from his previous run to suggest he could remain successful over the minimum trip, assuming he could gallop his rivals into submission. Very Wood’s jumping around the right-handed Galway was adequate, with no causes for concern, and connections were confident of a smart performance.

If Minella Foru is a serious candidate for the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle then going down a length-and-a-half was a smart performance for a horse like Very Wood who is a classic Gigginstown prospect, unlikely to reach his full potential until he sees three miles and fences. Very Wood and Minella Foru are different types of horses and the sprint for home would have suited the former far less than the latter. Davy Russell, making the running on Very Wood, had the opportunity to set a real test but his mount did very little to help their cause. He lugged right from the start, jumped out to the right at each hurdle, with varying degrees of severity, and even struggled to navigate some of the left-handed bends. He must have given away a significant amount of ground to his rivals and it is tempting to think that without the wayward tendencies or on a right-handed track, he would have come out on top. However, it also the case that Very Wood was better placed for the sprint finish, than the resulting winner, having had his own way out in front. While AP McCoy, renowned for his strength in a finish when necessary, was hardly all out to settle matters aboard Minella Foru.

Such was the farcical nature of the race it is difficult to draw too many conclusions about the respective merits of the front two. In terms of the Supreme, Very Wood was always more likely to excel over further and, now there appears to be a problem with left-handed tracks, connections may already be looking past Cheltenham to Punchestown for their long term targets. I am trying to keep an open mind with regards to Minella Foru. There is the slight possibility that Very Wood is exceptional and Minella Foru did well to beat him but if he wants to become a top two mile novice he would have to beat a stayer like Very Wood in this manner especially considering the circumstances. Eddie Harty has suggested that his next run will be in the Royal Bond Novice Hurdle on December 1 or the Future Champions Novice Hurdle at Leopardstown's Christmas meeting. Either way we will learn more about his Supreme credentials then as he takes on the best available in Ireland. Despite his precise jumping and rare natural speed the likelihood of meeting rivals from higher profile yards means he may well be underestimated again.

Supreme Novices Update: Trifolium

During an exceptional weekend of sport one performance may have gone under the radar.  Arsenal’s super seven against Blackburn, Manchester United’s comeback at Stamford Bridge, the titanic tussle between Wales and Ireland in the Six Nations, the Giants’ victory in the Super Bowl and even the demolition of Big Zeb by Sizing Europe all overshadowed Trifolium’s win at Punchestown which has put him right into the Supreme Novices picture. Although with the absence of jump racing in Britain it’s possible many will have been focussed on the Irish racing more than ever.

Trifolium is a more experienced hurdler than most of his likely Supreme rivals. He has already run six times but importantly he seems to have a progressive profile.  On his first two starts in Ireland he ran extremely promising races and was placed on both occasions. Each time he was keen and finished relatively weakly. Accounting for this, his connections decided on a set of cheek pieces and a change in tactics on his next start at Cork where he was allowed to get on with it. Making all, he never saw another rival and in the end pulled, an eye-catching, 24 lengths clear. This change in tactics looked the way to go and next time out he set off in front again. Once more he won comfortably, never off the bridle, beating handicapper Plan A by just over 8 lengths. Trifolium appeared to cope well with the small field on his first start out of novice company so his trainer targeted a similar type of race at Navan for his next run. This time he faced a far sterner test up against one of last season’s top novices So Young.

Trained by the phenomenon that is Willie Mullins, So Young has been talked up as a possible challenger to Big Buck’s over 3 miles this season but on this occasion he stuck to two miles on testing ground. With such a formidable opponent it was always going to be tough and So Young was clearly expected to win as he was sent off at 1/3. He duly did and won well, with Trifolium 7½ lengths behind. On bare form this was another promising run but, in reality it was somewhat disappointing. Intriguingly, the evidently successful front-running tactics weren't employed this time on Trifolium, thereby handing the initiative to the masterful Ruby Walsh. It is possible they were worried about the son of Godneyev’s tendency to be keen and they were hoping to teach him to settle with a view to the festival where it is extremely difficult to win from the front. However, yet again Trifolium took a very keen hold and for the first half of the race Charles Byrne’s charge was fighting with jockey Davy Russell, but surprisingly between the third and second last he looked to be travelling better than So Young. For a second an upset was on the cards, but his early exertions had cost him as Trifolium had nothing more to give when So Young quickened away after the two out. This was to some extent understandable given the strong gallop set by Ruby Walsh on the soft-heavy ground. In spite of this his propensity to pull was alarming for a Cheltenham Festival aspirant and Charles Byrnes was keen himself to give the 5 year old one more run for experience.  

At Punchestown on Sunday they again decided to take a lead but this time he settled noticeably better and travelled smoothly throughout before an ultra impressive turn of foot approaching the home bend put the race to bed, only having to ridden out hands and heels to finish, a more than, convincing 9 lengths clear of another Mullins trained adversary Simenon. This was back in novice company and he was strongly fancied to win, sent off a 7/4 favourite, but nonetheless it was a tremendous display.

This performance would suggest he has a huge chance in the Supreme Novices Hurdle in March. Ever since the cheek pieces were applied his jumping has been assured and it was particularly good on Sunday. He also displayed the necessary pace for the festival curtain raiser and two miles looks to be his trip at this stage. Bearing all this in mind, the 16/1 available for Trifolium looks a fair price and it would be difficult to dissuade anyone from taking it. However, all his best runs over hurdles so far have come on soft or heavy ground and the way he powered through it at Punchestown suggests he relishes the surface. His trainer stated after the race he would improve for better ground and if this was true then he would have every chance in March, but I have my doubts. What he achieved in winning by 9 lengths is also debatable. Simenon had won a very weak maiden at Cork previously and possibly wants further than two miles and Joxer, who looked to be Trifolium’s main rival before the race, made two terrible mistakes, when still going well, at the third and second last flight effectively ending his chances. I feel the race was not a strong one and Trifolium will have to improve again if he is to challenge at Cheltenham especially when you think that the only time he faced a top class rival he was beaten comfortably, albeit with excuses. These excuses mainly revolved around his inability to settle and while he was fine on Sunday it would still be a major worry for me. Even Davy Russell said after the race at Punchestown that he worried about his keen going nature for Cheltenham and his not sure the track will suit. My final concern would surround his owners Gigginstown House Stud. They already have Midnight Game (Willie Mullins) who looks a better candidate for the Supreme Novices and is shorter in the in the betting. Second guessing them is always difficult but he looks their number one and with worries over the track suiting Trifolium you cannot be sure he will even turn up at Cheltenham. 

Weekend Review - Triumph Hurdle Trials

This weekend saw a number of different Triumph Hurdle hopefuls testing their credentials. While there were some notable disappointments, Paul Nicholls, Alan King and Willie Mullins will be extremely satisfied with their horses and will look to March full of confidence.

On Cheltenham’s ‘Trials Day’, Grumeti and Pearl Swan laid down their festival markers in the JCB Triumph Hurdle Trial. In a desperate finish Pearl Swan came out on top by a short head but after a lengthy stewards’ enquiry the result was amended, the placings were reversed and Grumeti was given the race.  This was the right decision as there had been discernible interference on the run-in and Ruby Walsh was given a controversial three day ban for careless riding. Before the race he was largely unconsidered for the Triumph Hurdle, available at 33/1 with Skybet for example, yet afterwards many felt that Pearl Swan was the horse who ran the best trial and with him being at a best price of 10/1 (as short as 5/1 with one firm) the layers are not taking any chances with him.

Pearl Swan at Taunton

Pearl Swan had first come to the attention of jump racing followers after an authoritative display on his debut for Paul Nicholls at Taunton, just 9 days before his run at Cheltenham on Saturday. He had been a fair flat performer for John Hammond in France and, with his new connections, was sent off a relatively well backed 3/1 second favourite. At Taunton he jumped well, on the whole, and moved through the race like a good horse before quickening powerfully to beat the consistent Ifyouletmefinish four lengths. He evidently had plenty in hand that day and Nicholls wanted to see whether he had a Triumph or Fred Winter horse on his hands by running him on Saturday. Sitting well off the pace throughout, Ruby Walsh, on Pearl Swan, made his move after two out and then at the last he was upsides the leaders before battling with Grumeti all the way up the Cheltenham hill. This run proved to his trainer that he is a Triumph Hurdle horse and he will now head straight for that race without another run. Paul Nicholls is convinced he can improve this son of Gentlewave with his jumping the priority, which looked deliberate at times. He may well find significant improvement in Pearl Swan, in which case he would be a formidable opponent come March but I am still keener on the horse who was awarded the Triumph Hurdle trial, Grumeti.

Grumeti was a useful on the flat for Michael Bell and was seen as a good jumping prospect by his current connections. At the Newmarket sales current connections went to £100,000 to buy this son of Sakhee and on the face of it, this looks good business.

Much like Pearl Swan, Grumeti won his hurdling debut at Taunton. He was even more impressive, pulling fourteen lengths clear of, another formerly talented flat horse and subsequent clear-cut handicap hurdle winner, Ted Spread. In third, a further length back, was Ifyouletmefinish who Pearl Swan had only beaten by six lengths. Grumeti jumped smoothly at Taunton and did much the same at Newbury on his next start where he was all set to demolish his field on the bridle. Unfortunately, at the second last he stumbled on landing and came down. This scuppered, his trainer, Alan King's plan to win comfortably at Newbury before a tilt at the Adonis Hurdle at Kempton. With a worry over the weather turning and a cold snap forcing Grumeti to head straight to festival, after a fall, it was decided a quick run back at Cheltenham was the best course of action. For me, his performance in the trial enhanced his claims for the Triumph Hurdle itself. This run was almost certainly too soon after his fall at Newbury and he started the race like he had fallen recently, jumping slowly at the first few flights. He failed to show the burst of acceleration he displayed at Taunton as a result of him probably not having enough time to recover from his last run. Grumeti was also hindered by the slightly sticky, tacky ground and by the fact that he chased the pace from an early stage unlike his adversary Pearl Swan who had been dropped out. This combined with the interference suffered all the way up the run-in makes his victory all the more meritorious and I am convinced there is significantly more to come.

Alan King has stated that his Triumph hopeful will likely go to the Adonis next for one last bit of crucial experience before the big one. Unless another Zarkandar appears I fully expect him to win that as well as the juvenile hurdlers likely to turn up there have not impressed me to the same extent as Grumeti, and that includes current antepost favourite for the Triumph Saddlers Risk. At this stage Grumeti is right at the top of my Triumph Hurdle list with six weeks still to go and is certainly one to consider antepost.

In third behind Pearl Swan and Grumeti was Hollow Tree who ran his usual good race. He seems to lack the necessary ability for the Triumph Hurdle even though he won the Grade 1 Finale at Chepstow. That is a race that tends to have little bearing on the Triumph itself and it seems clear that Hollow Tree is at his best on soft ground. He may have chance off a big weight in the Fred Winter but I would be quite happy to leave him out of any Triumph Hurdle calculations. Further down the field at Cheltenham was the major disappointment of the race, Baby Mix. The Tom George trained grey finished last of six but he was sent off a 7/4 joint-favourite and was clearly expected to do far better. On his first start for Tom George, also at Cheltenham, Baby Mix ran out an impressive seven length winner and defeated the highly regarded, heavily odds on, Hinterland in the process. On that occasion he travelled strongly and jumped noticeably well before pulling away from Nicholls’ charge. More of the same was expected this weekend but while he travelled strongly for much of the way Baby Mix’s jumping failed to stand up to the test and he made a number of errors. In terms of his Triumph prospects I’m not willing to forgive Baby Mix this run. I’m not convinced his defeat of Hinterland was all that it looked at the time. Hinterland had to force the pace from the front, was keen throughout and, most importantly, was giving the Al Namix Gelding 7lbs. Also, Baby Mix appeared to have a strange head carriage and looked like he was thinking about it on the run-in. He does not look the most straightforward and I cannot envisage circumstances where I would back him for the Triumph.

One further negative for Baby Mix was the run of Hinterland in the handicap hurdle on the same card as the Triumph trial. Hinterland was still in the mix for the Triumph Hurdle going into his run on Saturday and as a result was a well backed favourite. He could only manage third under an interesting ride from Ruby Walsh. While it was not bad run by any means, it looked more of a trial for the Fred Winter than for the Triumph especially as Paul Nicholls has at least two other strong candidates for the race.

Over in Ireland there was hugely eye-catching Triumph Hurdle trial run by the Willie Mullins trained Darroun. He was an expensive purchase for connections at the July Arqana sales in France, costing the princely sum of €140,000. Trained by Alain de Royer-Dupre on the level he managed to win once from three starts and was seen as the perfect type for juvenile hurdling.

It was inexperience that cost him first time up over hurdles at Punchestown where he finished a close second to Shadow Catcher. At Leopardstown on Saturday better was expected and he was sent out in front by Paul Townend, often a sign of confidence behind a Mullins novice hurdler. This grey son of Dalakhani jumped impeccably and he held off the favourite, Hisaabaat, by one and a quarter lengths. Hisaabaat had previously finished second to two Irish hopes for the Triumph, Sportsmaster and, Darroun’s stablemate, Ut De Sivola. Dermot Weld’s juvenile is a good yardstick in these Irish events and he looked the winner approaching the last as he was still on the bridle, but Willie Mullin’s charge outbattled him and in the end the margin of victory failed to do his superiority justice. It is worth noting that rounding the home turn Darroun appeared to lose his action and his jockey had to stop riding for a few strides giving significant ground to the second and third in the process. He is a strapping gelding and still showed signs of greenness at Leopardstown but in overcoming this and his loss of action, Darroun showed that is a talented horse with tremendous scope for improvement.

As a Triumph Hurdle prospect, Darroun could not have come from a better source with the Aga Khan Studs producing recent winners Zaynar and Zarkandar. He looks to be improving fast and with further progression expected on the quicker festival ground he is surely value at 20/1. There is always the problem with Willie Mullins trained horses that he has another prospect for the same race and this is the case here as he trains Ut De Sivola who is appreciably shorter in the market. He beat Hisaabaat further than Darroun last time but Hisaabaat made a dreadful mistake at the last when travelling strongly and there is every chance he was flattered. I was not overly impressed by this son of Robins Des Champs and I would be confident that in six weeks time Darroun will be Mullins’ first string for the Triumph. This being the case he will be much shorter than the 20/1 available at this stage and I suggest taking that price for the Triumph now. Of course, the last two years have shown there is always the possibility that the best juvenile has yet to be unleashed over hurdles; hence backing Darroun each way is advisable.