Supreme Novices Update: Tolworth Hurdle review

Underestimation is something I am far less guilty of than overestimation. I can easily get too excited about a horse that impresses, go overboard with a taking performance, but it is more unusual for me to be overly negative about a horse with major Cheltenham Festival pretensions. Last season, while he was a solid horse with strong bumper form and a sequence of relatively impressive wins over hurdles, I couldn’t believe Cinders And Ashes would be good enough to win the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle. There was no reason to think he was incapable of making the frame, I just assumed, from what I had seen, that there would be a couple of classier candidates able to see him off up the Cheltenham hill. This season I appear to be in a similar situation with Melodic Rendezvous as, so far, he has done little to put one off expecting a big show in March, but I can’t see him having the pace or the class to take the main prize, whether that be the Supreme or the Neptune.

On Saturday, Melodic Rendezvous took the step up to grade 1 company over hurdles in his stride, running out a convincing winner of the Tolworth Hurdle. His grade 1 bumper form augured well but his starting price and position in the market (only third favourite) suggested that many, including myself, were expecting a different outcome. When discussing Melodic Rendezvous’ last race I had been very positive about runner up, Royal Boy. With the extra experience from that first run over hurdles behind him I had expected the form to be reversed with Jeremy Scott’s charge, and that seemed to be the general consensus seeing as Royal Boy started the 5/2 favourite. However, Melodic Rendezvous never looked in much danger of defeat on Saturday, with Royal Boy a well beaten third. Receiving a nice lead from Nicky Henderson’s six-year-old, Melodic Rendezvous settled comfortably in about fourth for most of the journey. His jumping was slick and economical, there was no semblance of an error and this is clearly a strength especially when one compares his jumping to those around him in the Supreme market. As Royal Boy weakened rapidly, he picked up well between the final two obstacles and from the half furlong pole Nick Schofield asked him to pull away from Pendra and the Where Or When gelding responded in good style. There is much to like about Melodic Rendezvous, he is tough, has a willing attitude, he clearly stays well and it is hard to argue that he wasn’t comfortably the best horse at Sandown. The question is whether that is hugely significant in terms of the Supreme Novices hurdle.

In the run up to Saturday’s race, the Tolworth looked a reasonably strong renewal and if Court Minstrel and Royal Boy had, in my view, ran anywhere near their previous levels of form then it would be hard to knock such a performance but I am quite convinced they did not. Melodic Rendezvous’ previous runs were not strong enough in form terms to suggest he was a Cheltenham Festival winner in waiting, particularly his debut run over hurdles where he finished behind Mr Mole. He is definitely improving, some would say rapidly, but even having won this grade 1 he is still yet to show me enough to suggest he is the Cheltenham candidate that his lofty antepost market positions suggest.

In second at Sandown was Pendra, admittedly four-and-a-half-lengths away, who has not shown enough to mark him out as a serious grade 1 contender. Since he ran away with his bumper Charlie Longsdon’s five-year-old has advertised his novice hurdle credentials with two wins from two starts, both at Plumpton, but his run prior to the Tolworth Hurdle was a three-and-three-quarter-lengths defeat of Workbench, trained by Paul Nicholls. Pendra took his time in putting that race to bed and I am sure Nicholls would have Workbench way down his novice hurdle pecking order.

Pendra already looks the sort who will improve for further, having attempted to make the running on Saturday in order to make use of his apparent stamina, and his ideal trip will surely prove to be nearer three miles than two. He was not simply brushed aside by Melodic Rendezvous either as, aided by Noel Fehily’s urgings, Pendra battled for much of the run in, whereas one would expect a serious candidate for Cheltenham to dismiss this future chaser with more authority than the winner did. It is fair to say the ground was extremely testing at Sandown and that would have contributed to Pendra’s performance while hampering the efforts of a classier Melodic Rendezvous. The emphasis became far more on stamina and that points to a step up in trip for Melodic Rendezvous but his impressive trainer, Jeremy Scott, is aiming more towards the Supreme having proved effective not only over two miles, but also at Cheltenham.

If Melodic Rendezvous does improve for the better ground one assumes he will face in March, as his trainer and jockey have stated on numerous occasions, then it is possible that we are a distance away from seeing his true ability. His record suggests that he handles testing ground, in fact he may well thrive on it having run so well behind Champagne Fever at Punchestown on, near enough, waterlogged ground. In two grade ones on heavy ground he has finished second and first while his only defeat over hurdles to date was on good-to-soft ground. He might just be the horse to look to in a heavy ground Supreme, these are the only conditions in which I could entertain backing him, but this would also encourage some of those contemplating the Neptune to drop down in trip, providing Melodic Rendezvous with an even tougher test. As nice as it is to see a different trainer competing with the National Hunt juggernauts, I am yet to see the zip and class necessary to get me excited about his Cheltenham prospects but then I felt exactly the same way about Cinders And Ashes last season.

For many the disappointment of Saturday’s race was Poet. There was a widely held belief that Poet was ultra impressive on his hurdling debut and that his flat class would inevitably result in him becoming a high class hurdler. I thought he was all out at Newbury to defeat, the subsequently beaten, Veloce and there was this myth about his ‘brilliant’ jumping, which looked no more than adequate to me. Poet ran as well as I expected he would on Saturday and, while this was an admirably ambitious target, if he is to make a mark over hurdles it will have to be at a much lower level.

The disappointment of the race for me in the Tolworth was the aforementioned favourite, Royal Boy. Last time, at Cheltenham, he was just trapped in behind the rest of the field just as the pace quickened. Once he found his passage up the rail Royal Boy was running down Melodic Rendezvous all the way to the line. It looked as if inexperience and a slight lack of pace cost him. A grade 1 on his second start under rules was always going to be a tall order but he had looked so promising at Cheltenham it was hoped, and in my case expected, that he would reverse the placings with Melodic Rendezvous. Unfortunately for his supporters, the exuberant jumping display was nowhere to be found. Conscious that he had been found wanting for pace at the death last time, Geraghty (on board Royal Boy) set out to be handy, if not make the running, in order to ensure that he was in the ideal position were it to turn into a sprint, having been left behind on debut. For a horse in need of the experience this tactic plainly backfired as he was still rather green while his jumping was abominable, losing ground at nearly every hurdle before he capitulated after second last. He still finished third, gaining invaluable experience, and in future with different tactics employed, preferably over further, he could still be a potent force in novice hurdles.

The final word goes to Court Minstrel who had the best form coming into Saturday’s race, having been impressive on his first start at Cheltenham and unlucky on his second behind Dodging Bullets and River Maigue. There were concerns expressed by his trainer, Evan Williams, that he may not handle the heavy ground and these concerns were borne out. He again travelled strongly through the race and came with a menacing run, along with the winner, on the approach to the second last but after being hemmed in for a few strides, his effort petered out tamely. A tired leap at the last nearly saw him come down, giving away third spot in the process. He is still a very useful novice hurdler, if not significantly better, and it would be folly to write him off just yet. His ideal conditions are relatively quick ground and a big field, until we see him face those he will be difficult to judge. Evan Williams seems to be favouring a go at a festival handicap in March and who could blame him? These defeats in unsuitable conditions can only land him on a very favourable mark.

Supreme Novices Hurdle update: The Tolworth Hurdle

Having tipped Simonsig on the blog earlier in the season it was interesting to see Nicky Henderson run a French import in a Grade 1 two mile novices hurdle on his first start for the yard. Captain Conan won by a small margin but, nevertheless, stamped his claim on a place at festival for the Seven Barrows team. Intriguingly the trainer and jockey seemed keen to save him for fences much like they were with Sprinter Sacre. From the television pictures Captain Conan looked huge when chasing down the smaller Colour Squadron and anyone who has seen him in the flesh has reported that he is an imposing type built for chasing, so you can understand where Henderson and Geraghty are coming from. What must also come into the reckoning is the number of prospective runners in the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle the trainer already has. Some will have to miss out and if a horse looks more a chaser than a hurdler then there is logic in saving the likes of Captain Conan for next season. However, I imagine they will have some difficulty in trying to convince the owners.

The form of the Tolworth for me looks dubious and as much as the first two are likely to keep improving it is difficult to argue any horse, bar the winner, has run its race. Captain Conan jumped and travelled like the good horse Henderson thought he was but he was all out to just beat the wayward Colour Squadron. Had Colour Squadron kept on a straight line and Richard Johnson been able to ride a proper finish on the horse then you could rate Captain Conan’s performance quite highly. In that situation then both would be fully justified in being at the head of the market for the Supreme. Unfortunately, Colour Squadron looked to have the race won entering the straight but he hung left the whole way up the run in with only the rail to keep him on a reasonable course. Then as the rail ended Colour Squadron dived to the left leaving Richard Johnson with an impossible task, thereby throwing away the race and gifting it to Geraghty’s mount.

There had been an indication that the Hobbs hurdler might not be the most straightforward with the way he jumped slightly left on his previous start at Newbury and the way he finished his first start over hurdles at the same track. Something of this magnitude was not expected, however, and it must be unlikely that he will run on a right handed track anytime soon. In terms of his Cheltenham prospects, there must be some promise in this performance as he came very close to winning a Grade 1despite hanging violently and at Cheltenham he will be going left handed.  Although, at Cheltenham there is very little rail to help on the home straight which would again give him the possibility to throw the race away, plus, I fear he will not come across the soft ground which ideally suits him.

Colour Squadron started the race as joint favourite along with Prospect Wells. Prospect Wells was a late entry after the race was re-opened so this was somewhat of an afterthought. This could not excuse the awful performance though and it was another reason to be wary of the form, particularly when looking forward to Cheltenham. Having run well on his previous four starts over hurdles, albeit with his last one being the least promising, he was expected to go well here by many including his trainer. The Sadler’s Wells gelding did not look happy through the race and was off the bridle far earlier than would be expected. Coming into the straight he was not too far off the leading pair but Ruby Walsh was hard at work and he faded tamely, finishing last of the four finishers. There are certainly excuses for this run and he may well start a bigger price in the Supreme than he deserves to and he will go straight there according to connections. Nevertheless, this was a bitterly disappointing effort and it would take some forgiving to back him for the festival opener.

Finishing third, seven lengths ahead of Prospect Wells, was the Charlie Longsdon trained Magnifique Etoile. He had won two very minor events over hurdles prior to this and is well regarded by connections. The trainer’s concern in the build up to the race was the soft ground and it proved his undoing, although he is probably not up to this class yet anyway. He travelled fine until just after three out where he could not quicken like the front pair out of the ground and much like Colour Squadron and Prospect Wells, he is almost certainly better than he showed here. While it may not be form to follow too closely with regards to the Supreme, the race may have a bearing on a festival handicap as his festival target will be the County Hurdle according to his trainer, and he will not be without a chance.

The 40/1 outsider of the five runners was High Storm who was pulled up before two out having run no sort of race. His previous run was very encouraging as he ran the exciting Darlan˟ extremely close at Cheltenham in December. He clearly ran nowhere near this form at Sandown and might be one to give another chance down in class, possibly, up in trip.

  ˟ Darlan only finished a nose in front of High Storm but I am in no doubt that the distance flattered the Rebecca Curtis horse. Darlan cruised through the race at Cheltenham and looked as if he was likely to win the race on bridle before stumbling on landing at the last thereby losing momentum. This made it a race, but he always looked like getting there even though in the end it was by the smallest of margins. His previous run over hurdles and his bumper win had both been very easy and today at Taunton was more of the same. At Cheltenham, though, he showed he had battling qualities which will be important if he is to have festival ambitions. I do not believe he ran up to form at Cheltenham, hence, for me Darlan still falls into the ‘could be anything’ category. He has now won three races on the bridle and, if his trainer can sharpen up his jumping, he may be yet another contender for the Supreme coming from Nicky Henderson’s yard.