Supreme Novices Update: Tolworth Hurdle review

Underestimation is something I am far less guilty of than overestimation. I can easily get too excited about a horse that impresses, go overboard with a taking performance, but it is more unusual for me to be overly negative about a horse with major Cheltenham Festival pretensions. Last season, while he was a solid horse with strong bumper form and a sequence of relatively impressive wins over hurdles, I couldn’t believe Cinders And Ashes would be good enough to win the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle. There was no reason to think he was incapable of making the frame, I just assumed, from what I had seen, that there would be a couple of classier candidates able to see him off up the Cheltenham hill. This season I appear to be in a similar situation with Melodic Rendezvous as, so far, he has done little to put one off expecting a big show in March, but I can’t see him having the pace or the class to take the main prize, whether that be the Supreme or the Neptune.

On Saturday, Melodic Rendezvous took the step up to grade 1 company over hurdles in his stride, running out a convincing winner of the Tolworth Hurdle. His grade 1 bumper form augured well but his starting price and position in the market (only third favourite) suggested that many, including myself, were expecting a different outcome. When discussing Melodic Rendezvous’ last race I had been very positive about runner up, Royal Boy. With the extra experience from that first run over hurdles behind him I had expected the form to be reversed with Jeremy Scott’s charge, and that seemed to be the general consensus seeing as Royal Boy started the 5/2 favourite. However, Melodic Rendezvous never looked in much danger of defeat on Saturday, with Royal Boy a well beaten third. Receiving a nice lead from Nicky Henderson’s six-year-old, Melodic Rendezvous settled comfortably in about fourth for most of the journey. His jumping was slick and economical, there was no semblance of an error and this is clearly a strength especially when one compares his jumping to those around him in the Supreme market. As Royal Boy weakened rapidly, he picked up well between the final two obstacles and from the half furlong pole Nick Schofield asked him to pull away from Pendra and the Where Or When gelding responded in good style. There is much to like about Melodic Rendezvous, he is tough, has a willing attitude, he clearly stays well and it is hard to argue that he wasn’t comfortably the best horse at Sandown. The question is whether that is hugely significant in terms of the Supreme Novices hurdle.

In the run up to Saturday’s race, the Tolworth looked a reasonably strong renewal and if Court Minstrel and Royal Boy had, in my view, ran anywhere near their previous levels of form then it would be hard to knock such a performance but I am quite convinced they did not. Melodic Rendezvous’ previous runs were not strong enough in form terms to suggest he was a Cheltenham Festival winner in waiting, particularly his debut run over hurdles where he finished behind Mr Mole. He is definitely improving, some would say rapidly, but even having won this grade 1 he is still yet to show me enough to suggest he is the Cheltenham candidate that his lofty antepost market positions suggest.

In second at Sandown was Pendra, admittedly four-and-a-half-lengths away, who has not shown enough to mark him out as a serious grade 1 contender. Since he ran away with his bumper Charlie Longsdon’s five-year-old has advertised his novice hurdle credentials with two wins from two starts, both at Plumpton, but his run prior to the Tolworth Hurdle was a three-and-three-quarter-lengths defeat of Workbench, trained by Paul Nicholls. Pendra took his time in putting that race to bed and I am sure Nicholls would have Workbench way down his novice hurdle pecking order.

Pendra already looks the sort who will improve for further, having attempted to make the running on Saturday in order to make use of his apparent stamina, and his ideal trip will surely prove to be nearer three miles than two. He was not simply brushed aside by Melodic Rendezvous either as, aided by Noel Fehily’s urgings, Pendra battled for much of the run in, whereas one would expect a serious candidate for Cheltenham to dismiss this future chaser with more authority than the winner did. It is fair to say the ground was extremely testing at Sandown and that would have contributed to Pendra’s performance while hampering the efforts of a classier Melodic Rendezvous. The emphasis became far more on stamina and that points to a step up in trip for Melodic Rendezvous but his impressive trainer, Jeremy Scott, is aiming more towards the Supreme having proved effective not only over two miles, but also at Cheltenham.

If Melodic Rendezvous does improve for the better ground one assumes he will face in March, as his trainer and jockey have stated on numerous occasions, then it is possible that we are a distance away from seeing his true ability. His record suggests that he handles testing ground, in fact he may well thrive on it having run so well behind Champagne Fever at Punchestown on, near enough, waterlogged ground. In two grade ones on heavy ground he has finished second and first while his only defeat over hurdles to date was on good-to-soft ground. He might just be the horse to look to in a heavy ground Supreme, these are the only conditions in which I could entertain backing him, but this would also encourage some of those contemplating the Neptune to drop down in trip, providing Melodic Rendezvous with an even tougher test. As nice as it is to see a different trainer competing with the National Hunt juggernauts, I am yet to see the zip and class necessary to get me excited about his Cheltenham prospects but then I felt exactly the same way about Cinders And Ashes last season.

For many the disappointment of Saturday’s race was Poet. There was a widely held belief that Poet was ultra impressive on his hurdling debut and that his flat class would inevitably result in him becoming a high class hurdler. I thought he was all out at Newbury to defeat, the subsequently beaten, Veloce and there was this myth about his ‘brilliant’ jumping, which looked no more than adequate to me. Poet ran as well as I expected he would on Saturday and, while this was an admirably ambitious target, if he is to make a mark over hurdles it will have to be at a much lower level.

The disappointment of the race for me in the Tolworth was the aforementioned favourite, Royal Boy. Last time, at Cheltenham, he was just trapped in behind the rest of the field just as the pace quickened. Once he found his passage up the rail Royal Boy was running down Melodic Rendezvous all the way to the line. It looked as if inexperience and a slight lack of pace cost him. A grade 1 on his second start under rules was always going to be a tall order but he had looked so promising at Cheltenham it was hoped, and in my case expected, that he would reverse the placings with Melodic Rendezvous. Unfortunately for his supporters, the exuberant jumping display was nowhere to be found. Conscious that he had been found wanting for pace at the death last time, Geraghty (on board Royal Boy) set out to be handy, if not make the running, in order to ensure that he was in the ideal position were it to turn into a sprint, having been left behind on debut. For a horse in need of the experience this tactic plainly backfired as he was still rather green while his jumping was abominable, losing ground at nearly every hurdle before he capitulated after second last. He still finished third, gaining invaluable experience, and in future with different tactics employed, preferably over further, he could still be a potent force in novice hurdles.

The final word goes to Court Minstrel who had the best form coming into Saturday’s race, having been impressive on his first start at Cheltenham and unlucky on his second behind Dodging Bullets and River Maigue. There were concerns expressed by his trainer, Evan Williams, that he may not handle the heavy ground and these concerns were borne out. He again travelled strongly through the race and came with a menacing run, along with the winner, on the approach to the second last but after being hemmed in for a few strides, his effort petered out tamely. A tired leap at the last nearly saw him come down, giving away third spot in the process. He is still a very useful novice hurdler, if not significantly better, and it would be folly to write him off just yet. His ideal conditions are relatively quick ground and a big field, until we see him face those he will be difficult to judge. Evan Williams seems to be favouring a go at a festival handicap in March and who could blame him? These defeats in unsuitable conditions can only land him on a very favourable mark.

Supreme Novices Update: Opus Energy Novices' Hurdle (Grade 2) review

The third race of Cheltenham’s Open Meeting 2012 had, since the entry stage, looked like a key pointer to the upcoming novice hurdle events over two miles with most of the entries promising much either, last season, the start of this season, or both. Once the declarations had been made it appeared we were in prospect for a highly informative clash that was bound to have a significant bearing on the, all important, Supreme Novices’ Hurdle 2013.

There is no doubt we saw a group of high class novice hurdlers that, in all likelihood, will make up into horses capable of challenging in March, but whether we learned the respective merits of the runners in this race is another matter. The main problem, that had been alluded to beforehand, was a lack of pace. The race was full of horses in need of the experience or with concerns over their ability to settle; therefore nearly every runner’s ideal conditions were a fast run race in which they could settle in behind, receiving cover. As a result, nothing wanted to make the running leaving the bizarre situation where the tapes went up and it was nearly 15 seconds before the race actually began.

With Dodging Bullets having already had one season over hurdles and bearing in mind his convincing victory at the track last time, Ruby Walsh was reluctantly willing to set the pace on him. Walsh took the field along at a very sedate pace leaving a number in behind pulling for their heads, most notably Duke Of Navan who nearly pulled his way to the front rounding the first bend out of the home straight. Dodging Bullets settled well enough in front, largely jumped well, and, after Walsh bunched the field up one final time coming down the hill, he quickened smartly using all the advantage he had gained through the race to best effect, consequently running out a 1½ length winner. If there was going to be any danger to him it would have been following his mistake at the last but it lost him little, if any, ground and he was in fact quicker over the obstacle than the second.

There was strong support for Paul Nicholls’ charge before Friday’s race but I had question marks over him. He had won an extremely weak race at the previous Cheltenham meeting and he was up against high class horses here, from the flat and bumpers, for example, Court Minstrel who had won more decisively in a stronger race on the same day at Cheltenham’s October meeting. Although, on the back of Dodging Bullet’s first season over hurdles he had every right to be favourite, particularly when one reflected on his run in the Triumph Hurdle. With this win under his belt over seemingly decent opposition he should look a very appealing prospect for the Supreme, especially with his trainer showing so much faith in him that he is being considered for the Christmas Hurdle. The way the race panned out is just as likely to have inconvenienced Dodging Bullets as any other horse in the race and this is the point his connections and supporters will focus on going forward as he won in spite of the race being unsuitable. I take the view that in the end this was a farce of a race which was far less informative than it promised to be. I failed to see enough from the winner to dispel the doubts I previously held and would be willing to look past him at this stage for the 2013 Supreme Novices.

I was far more taken with the performances of the second and third, both of whom I would rather have on my side going forward. Second behind Dodging Bullets was River Maigue, who was making his hurdling debut in this Grade 2. This is hugely significant primarily because it shows the high esteem in which he is held by trainer Nicky Henderson, who has any number of high class novice hurdlers in his care, including My Tent Or Yours who was entered in this race at the five day stage. River Maigue, an impressive point-to-point winner, started his career for Nicky Henderson in one of last season’s best bumpers at Ascot where he was beaten into third by Royal Guardsman and Atlantic Roller, having pulled hard for most of the race. He then went on to the bumper at Ayr on Scottish Grand National day which Nicky Henderson had won for the previous two years, once with Sprinter Sacre, and River Maigue was impressive having again been keen early on, this time picking up well when asked. I was taken by this performance and he was one of the novice hurdle prospects I was most excited by this season and all my enthusiasm for him is intact after Friday, despite getting beaten.

As the horse had had issues settling early on in the past Barry Geraghty was keen to find him cover at Cheltenham once the race finally started. He settled River Maigue as well as he could in behind Magic Star up the straight before pulling himself alongside Magic Star on the exit of the first bend. The Zagreb gelding kept taking himself forward until he was nearly alongside Dodging Bullets before a slow jump at the fourth intervened. Geraghty was happy enough to give the front runner a three length lead and it was only a prodigious leap at the third last which took him alongside Ruby Walsh’s mount. Another sound jump two out put him there with a winning chance but on approach to the final turn he couldn’t match the instant acceleration from the flat bred, race fit, experienced rival, thereby losing the ground he had made up at the third last. He was quickly shoved along to regain the ground but could only stay on up the hill with the easy lead handed to the winner proving crucial.

Also crucial was River Maigue’s lack of fitness. This was his first run of the season and he is entitled to come on for it but in the paddock he certainly looked as if he was carrying some excess weight, Henderson suggested afterwards that his bay gelding had done a little too well over the summer. With this run under his, hopefully looser, belt he should improve considerably and I would not be in the least surprised were he to reverse the form with the winner even without the 7lb weight concession he received here. River Maigue is a horse with class and should prove himself very smart in a strongly run two miles. He jumps and travels so well that he could make up into a serious contender for the Supreme but as a convincing winner of his point-to-point over three miles he could also be even better over further. As an individual, he is well made with enough scope to make a high class chaser and the way he jumps his hurdles suggests this could be where we eventually see him at his very best, he does remind me very much of Finian’s Rainbow.

In third behind Dodging Bullets was the hard luck story of the race, Court Minstrel. If the race had panned out slightly differently, even off this ultra slow pace, I suspect he would have won and he comes out with a huge amount of credit. Evan Williams’ excitable son of Court Cave came into the race off the back of a striking victory over course and distance in October and the form of that race has worked out reasonably well with the second and sixth winning since, while fourth, fifth and seventh have been placed. Court Minstrel has been an excessively free-going sort throughout his time with Evan Williams and it would appear that he must be dropped out in rear in order to settle. These tactics resulted in him being most inconvenienced by the farcical nature of the contest, yet it was not just the ground he had to make up and the lack of a decent gallop which cost him here. Having managed to settle well in behind, Court Minstrel jumped fluently through the race and his rider, Paul Maloney, guided him into contention approaching the last. Unfortunately for him Magic Spear just jumped across in front, leaving him unsighted at the final hurdle, causing a mistake and a collision which cost Paul Maloney’s mount ground, momentum (just as he was quickening) and, crucially, race position. Court Minstrel then had to recover and it took him a few strides to organise himself, but once he did he flew up the hill passing Magic Spear and Duke Of Navan in the process. Without such interference I am confident that he would have been at worst second. With all his attributes and a new found maturity, in that he has finally learnt to settle, Court Minstrel looks tailor-made for the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle and if forced to have an antepost bet on something from Friday’s race it would be on him.

Tominator

Of the rest of the field behind Dodging Bullets, Duke Of Navan shaped the best, finishing just half-a-length behind Court Minstrel. He had strong bumper form, including behind River Maigue where, just like on Friday, he pulled himself to the front rounding the first bend. If he learns to settle he can put in more high class displays akin to his hurdling debut. Joint second favourite for this Supreme trial was Tominator. A talented stayer on the flat, he started his hurdling career at Bangor where he won decisively but his hurdling was far from fluent as was the case here. He also had a fast pace to run at that day ,set up by a stablemate, and he looks one for handicaps over further as his jumping inadequacies will find him out at this level.

Supreme Novices Update 2012/13: Court Minstrel and Dodging Bullets

With the first Cheltenham meeting already done with, I felt it appropriate to begin this season’s quest to identify the premier two-mile novice hurdler of the season. Sadly, for many like-minded individuals including myself, last season’s version, Simonsig, ended up running over 2m5f in The Neptune Investment Management Novices’ Hurdle. Again, this season I would prefer to see Simonsig displaying his undoubted prowess at two miles over hurdles but once again it seems I will be, to some extent, disappointed as Nicky Henderson is apparently leaning towards a chasing campaign. While I fully expect the former point-to-pointer to be ultra-successful over fences it is a shame that he is unlikely to be aimed at the Champion Hurdle, a race that looks his for the taking.

Unsurprisingly, Nicky Henderson has yet another strong team of prospective novice hurdlers this term but it was Evan Williams and Paul Nicholls who supplied this weekend’s early (very early) Supreme Novices contenders.

Lemington Maiden Hurdle

At Cheltenham on Friday twelve horses went to post in what appeared to be a competitive novices’ hurdle. The favourite was Population who had twice won bumpers impressively at Ascot before finishing sixth in the Aintree Champion bumper. However, it was a horse that finished two places in front of Population at Aintree that took the race and he won it impressively.

Court Minstrel had shown progressive form in bumpers prior to his Aintree fourth. Following a convincing victory at Ludlow, he finished a close second (also at Ludlow) to Tistory. Tistory will surely be one of Nicky Henderson’s most exciting novice hurdlers this season and Court Minstrel was arguably an unlucky loser in a contest where the front pair pulled well clear of the third. This was the first indication of the significant ability he possessed. Another return to Ludlow saw him pull off an eleven length demolition of his rivals and connections of this attractive son of Court Cave were understandably tempted by Aintree.

At Aintree Evan Williams’ charge was held up early in nineteenth of nineteen before gradually making his way through the pack to look threatening before not quite seeing out the 2m1f trip. In the end it turned into a stamina test with The New One, a potentially exceptional staying hurdler, coming out on top.

On that form Court Minstrel had every right to win Friday’s race and he did so in a manner which suggested he could be in contention for the big prize come March. As is his style, Court Minstrel was again dropped out in last place by Paul Moloney. Jumping neatly throughout, Court Minstrel travelled noticeably strongly, even on occasion pulling for his head, and soon after jumping the fourth last his rider let out an inch of rein to move through a swiftly closing gap. This was potentially the most impressive part of the race as he had passed four horses in just a couple of strides. From then on Paul Moloney kept having to pull him back in order to contain his effort for the finish and he remained firmly on the bridle until shaken up just after the last at which point he stormed up the Cheltenham hill pulling nearly 4 lengths clear of The Romford Pele.

This was as encouraging a hurdling debut as one could expect. He looks to have plenty of scope and there must be significant improvement in him as he is still struggling to completely settle. A large field and fast pace are likely to be his optimum conditions but as he gains experience he should become more amenable. There is the danger of overrating this performance as on face value it looks to be more about style than substance. His main rival in the race was supposed to be Population but his rider, Denis O’Regan, was unhappy some way out and he had to be pulled up with something clearly amiss. The Romford Pele had marked himself out as a good prospect with a seventh place finish in the Cheltenham Champion Bumper, just one place behind the winner of Aintree’s equivalent The New One, but he had been beaten at odds-on at Market Rasen on hurdling debut and at Cheltenham he handed any advantage he had over to Court Minstrel with a sloppy jump at the last. In third was Titan De Sarti, who has largely been disappointing in his career to date and merely stayed on here suggesting a step up in trip is the next logical step.

Despite the lack of substance, the style of Court Minstrel’s win was particularly exciting and the strength of his bumper form suggests he is certainly a novice hurdler worth bearing in mind for the Supreme as the season progresses.

Masterson Holdings Hurdle

In contrast to the jumps bred Court Minstrel, who had learnt his trade in bumpers, Dodging Bullets was bred by Frankie Dettori for the flat. By Dubawi, he was in training with Andrew Oliver where he managed to win twice on the level before being bought to go juvenile hurdling. Placed in the care of champion trainer Paul Nicholls he had three runs last season, showing distinct promise in two of them, and his trainer had described him as the best maiden hurdler in training.

On his hurdling debut in the Grade 2 Dovecote at Kempton Dodging Bullets came up against Grumeti, a leading Triumph Hurdle fancy at the time he had already won twice and fallen once when victory was certain. Dodging Bullets finished only 1½ lengths behind Grumeti in the end having shown signs of his evident inexperience. His second start was at the Cheltenham Festival in the Triumph Hurdle where he showed the benefit of his first race over hurdles by finishing fourth, only a head behind Grumeti this time. He travelled well before only failing for lack of stamina in the gruelling test that last season’s Triumph became. It is sensible to ignore his final start of last season at Aintree as he was badly hampered and was possibly feeling the effects of a long flat season in 2011 followed by three relatively quick hard races over hurdles.

He has been leading fancy for the 2013 Supreme Novices ever since and his seasonal debut was highly anticipated. He was heavily backed on his first start over hurdles out of graded company, and in a sense he delivered what he promised with an emphatic 8 length win but there are niggling doubts left over him.

During the first part of the race Dodging Bullets pulled hard but that is understandable as he is still lightly raced over hurdles and this was a small field which was taken along at a slow pace. As the race developed and the pace quickened he eventually settled ok in behind the leading pair of Hi Note and second favourite Baby Mix. On the whole he jumped fluently but at the fourth last he was slow and suddenly there appeared to be a significant gap between him and the leaders. For a brief moment he looked in trouble but Ruby Walsh asked for extra effort and Dodging Bullets responded well. From then on each time Ruby asked Dodging Bullets to make ground he did so quickly. He reached the last upsides Hi Note, took it well, and powered clear up the hill. Paul Nicholls was keen to point out after the race that this four-year-old Dubawi gelding had had a breathing operation over the summer and would improve for the run.

The principle danger to Dodging Bullets beforehand looked to be Baby Mix but he again finished tamely into third having travelled well. He was giving Dodging Bullets 8lbs and may have needed the run but there must be serious concerns over his temperament and or soundness now. The second placed Hi Note is a tough, improving filly over hurdles and the form of her recent Stratford romp was boosted at Kempton on Sunday but one would hope that in future Dodging Bullets would be capable of brushing her aside more easily if he is to take high rank amongst the novice hurdlers. He had to be pushed by Ruby Walsh to make ground a number of times during the race and for him to be thought of as a really strong Supreme contender I would prefer to see him make these moves on the bridle. He may have hit a flat spot on Saturday, such a characteristic could be terminal in higher quality contests, but this may also just be a fitness issue, as Nicholls pointed out he should “be better for the experience”, in which case it is important not to judge him too harshly on the somewhat laboured style of this victory. Dodging Bullets may look a completely different proposition on his next start.