Supreme Novices Update: Newbury, Ascot, Fairyhouse and Kelso

It was an important week for Supreme Novices candidates and it was probably the last time we were likely to see those with real chances running before the festival. There is still the chance that one or two of the very good four year olds could target the race following the Adonis on Saturday but the Triumph hurdle is naturally the more obvious target.

Newbury

On free-day Friday at Newbury we saw Darlan in the Betfair Hurdle and Montbazon, Vulcanite and Colour Squadron in a particularly competitive Novices event. Darlan had been around 9/1 second favourite behind Zarkandar for a while going into the Betfair Hurdle but he was weak on the day and drifted to 12/1. There were doubts over the strength of his form, for all that he was unbeaten, as he had not yet been properly tested. Following his last victory on the bridle at Taunton, where he beat Jump City by half a length, Barry Geraghty was keen to play down the amount he was likely to find once asked a question. As a result it was quite surprising to see the handicapper bump him up 9lbs afterwards; this was reduced by 3lbs later on after Jump City ran so poorly next time out, but it was too late for Friday’s (rearranged) race as the weights were already published.  

Darlan

We didn’t know how good Darlan actually was in the run up to last week’s run and after the race we are still none the wiser. Held up in the last third of the field for most of the way, McCoy kept Darlan wide presumably to give him a good view of his hurdles and ironically he jumped well. Often gaining ground at his obstacles, he travelled strongly and was not inconvenienced as the pace quickened. He moved sweetly through the field on the approach to the home turn and despite his inexperience he squeezed through a gap on the bend, putting him in third as they straightened up for the run-in. Travelling best of all, he reached two out just sharing the lead looking the most likely winner, before he failed to pick his legs up at the hurdle and took a crunching fall.

There is no way of knowing, until he runs again, what he would have found off the bridle. He may have found a great deal and still lost considering the race was won by a top Champion Hurdle prospect. Whatever happens, this performance will have enhanced Darlan’s reputation and at least his price for the Supreme no longer looks ridiculously short. This son of Milan is evidently a live contender for the traditional opener to the festival and if one knew that he had suffered no ill-effects from his fall then it would be folly to rule him out. It is quite a large ‘if’, however, as it was quite a major incident for a horse with so few miles on the clock and he may well remember such an unpleasant experience next time. It is also notable that he has made a mistake late on in every hurdle race he has run in. The least severe of these was at Cheltenham but he did lose momentum and he came slowly away from the flight, only managing to beat the vastly inferior High Storm by a nose. Whether he makes these mistakes because his jumping suffers as the pace quickens, or whether everything comes so easily to him that he loses concentration, is difficult to decide but it will be a nagging doubt in my mind particularly as he will face a number of fluent hurdlers at the festival. Had Darlan jumped the last two at Newbury fluently and won the Betfair Hurdle he would no doubt be favourite for the Supreme and the 12/1 available now would look massive. Sadly for connections he didn’t and still, for me, Darlan is too much of an unknown quantity to get involved with. Yet, at the same time, it would come as no shock were he to win handsomely in March.  

The very next race on Newbury’s card was a 2m Novices’ Hurdle involving three well regarded sorts all with great expectations. Montbazon came out comfortably on top but the race had a rather unsatisfactory feel to it. They went a slow pace early and when the three market principals drew alongside each other at the second last flight, the horse going best, Colour Squadron, fell.

Montbazon

I was huge fan of Montbazon as a bumper horse last season and I fully expected win the bumper at Cheltenham on his first start back but he was in need of the race and failed to impress in the paddock. Alan King’s charge clearly benefitted from the experience and his first run over hurdles came at Newbury where he was beaten into second on ground that didn’t suit by, the aforementioned, Colour Squadron. His next run came at Plumpton where he was sent off at 1/10 and won as expected but his jumping throughout was sloppy. This was concerning and, wrongly, I was worried that these frailties might find him out against a far better class of opposition but he looked an extremely competent hurdler on Friday. He travelled well through the race and when sent on to reach the leaders before two out he responded, before moving decisively clear of Vulcanite from the last.

Montbazon was rightly shortened significantly in the market for the Supreme and he looks to hold a sound each way chance. Beforehand on Friday he was the clear paddock pick, he was fit and imposing and looked a different horse to when I had last seen him at Cheltenham. If he stands out like this in March then he is worthy of consideration at least, especially as he appears to have the requisite stamina to win a Supreme Novices, but I am not convinced he is quite as classy as a number of other runners. The way he pulled away at Newbury was pleasing but he doesn’t have the burst acceleration that a few at the head of the Supreme market seem to. He looks more of a strong galloper and may be better suited to further in the long term. Finishing 7l clear of the well regarded Vulcanite is strong form on paper but Montbazon hasn’t excited me this year like he did last and I feel Vulcanite probably didn’t run best race either.

Vulcanite

Vulcanite was a little keen at Newbury and making his own pace is unlikely to have suited him. He was tiring from the last and without the departure of Colour Squadron he would have finished third. With a lead and a fast pace at Cheltenham I am sure he will be seen in a better light. I couldn’t be sure that he would reverse the form with Montbazon but I doubt there would be 7l in it. What he did show at Newbury, which bodes well for Cheltenham, was his exceptional jumping. He never broke stride, so quick and nimble, I would be surprised if anything could match him in this department in the Supreme having seen this display. The marked improvement from his first start where he ploughed through the first two hurdles is astonishing. Also worth noting is that since I last wrote about Vulcanite’s Supreme prospects his form has taken a notable boost. It was clear that his run behind Tetlami was strong form but when he thrashed a field at Southwell it was widely reported that he beat very little. In fact, 7l down in second was Spiekeroog who won his next start defeating Bourne in the process. Bourne then came out at Ascot on Saturday and was impressive in winning a competitive handicap hurdle. If Vulcanite’s run at Newbury can be forgiven then he looks a solid outsider for Cheltenham.

Colour Squadron

The second last had an impact on all the hurdle races at Newbury. Colour Squadron’s fall there was a major disappointment as he looked to be tanking along in between Montbazon and Vulcanite. Richard Johnson reined him back in an attempt to stop him hitting the front too soon on account of his antics at Sandown but before he could let him go the Old Vic gelding slithered on landing ejecting his rider. Much like Darlan you cannot be sure if Colour Squadron would have won but you have a much better idea as he had defeated Montbazon on the course previously so he would surely have been thereabouts. Of course, that is to forget the quirks he seems to have developed and with his violent hanging in the Grade 1 Tolworth he is surely one to avoid in any race of note, particularly the Supreme Novices Hurdle.

Ascot

At Ascot on Saturday a horse leapt into the reckoning for the Supreme with an emphatic display. Following two impressive wins, in a minor novice hurdle at Plumpton and a three runner juvenile hurdle at Ascot, Balder Succes was thought of as a possible Fred Winter or Aintree juvenile hurdle horse. He was running on Saturday against his elders, in a better race than he had previously faced, with the aim of discovering if he could be worthy of a place in the Triumph hurdle. He was so impressive on Saturday in beating the useful Captain Sunshine that he is now under consideration for the Supreme Novices against older horses. He jumped with real enthusiasm on Saturday and he again displayed an easy way of going which suggests a fast pace should suit. He showed how much class he’s got by quickening clear from the second last and at his age he should keep improving. I would have him ahead of Montbazon in terms of his chance in the Supreme and the four year old allowance can only be a benefit.

I must temper my enthusiasm by saying that the race somewhat fell apart at Ascot. His main rival Hazy Tom, whose form had worked out so well earlier in the season, was far too keen and in the end ran a horrible race. Similarly the second, Captain Sunshine was outpaced at an alarmingly early stage before staying on. It was a race that didn’t take much winning but he could do no more than win in the manner he did. Very few novice hurdlers have created such a good impression this season and at this stage the Supreme Novices looks the right race but as a juvenile hurdler there is the always chance he could run in the Triumph. This may well be an easier race and he now looks right among the best of his age group. I just believe Alan King would rather run him in the Supreme as Grumeti looks to have a better chance in the Triumph than Montbazon does in the Supreme and he has already proved himself against older horses. As a consequence, the 20/1 widely available (25/1 in a place) looks generous.  

Fairyhouse

On Wednesday two horses at the head of the Supreme Novices market ran and won impressively without coming off the bridle. The first was Galileo’s Choice at Fairyhouse, the second was Simonsig at Kelso. Galileo’s Choice won as he was entitled to, never coming off the bridle in defeating Becauseicouldntsee by 4 ½ lengths. As novice hurdle form that is nothing special seeing as the second is more a 4 mile chaser than a 2 mile hurdler but this son of Galileo travelled and quickened like the smart horse he had already shown to be. He is a Group 3 winner on the flat, looks to have plenty of speed and he clearly stays well as he showed when chasing home Sous Les Cieux in the Grade 1 Royal Bond. He should really have won that race however and he lacks the scope for improvement that a number of others in the Supreme have, including Midnight Game who finished well behind him that day. There probably won’t be many in the festival curtain raiser with as much class as him but he still hasn’t done or shown enough for me over hurdles to consider him as a likely winner and with his trainer’s record at the festival he is one at a short price that I am willing to strike a line through.

Kelso

In the Morebattle Hurdle we saw Simonsig win hard held from another staying chaser Knockara Beau. Run over 2m 2f this race told us very little about Simonsig that we didn’t already know. As my antepost selection for the Supreme I had been hoping for Nicky Henderson to drop him back in trip to 2m to really test his speed. Instead he ran over a trip in between that of the Neptune and the Supreme. Nicky Henderson still insists he has not decided which race to go for with this imposing grey but Barry Geraghty has already voiced a preference for the longer race as it will give a bit more time at his hurdles. Simonsig made mistakes at the final two hurdles at Kelso but there was an excuse for those as the sun was very low and he probably had trouble seeing the flights. Aside from those I have seen no issues with his jumping and in fact I see it as an asset. Geraghty clearly has his own interests in that he already has a strong ride in the Supreme, Tetlami, where as in the Neptune he has nothing outside of Simonsig that could challenge those at the head of the market. I can therefore forgive him this oversight but from all the evidence I have seen he must go for the Supreme. The major point is that in the Neptune he has to take on Fingal Bay again who comprehensively beat him at Sandown. While Simonsig may not have been at his very best that day I still don’t see him reversing the form over the longer trip. Furthermore, in the Neptune he will face Boston Bob and Monksland, two other outstanding candidates where as the Supreme has a far more open feel to it, for which he is favourite (as short as 6/1). In the Neptune, Simonsig will be one of the best, in the Supreme he will be THE best. This is a point trainer Nicky Henderson has already alluded to and for that reason I would still be inclined to think he will run in the shorter race. Hopefully this is not just wishful thinking.....

Supreme Novices Update

In the last week we have seen three horses stake their claim for the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle; Vulcanite, Cinders And Ashes and Midnight Game.

Vulcanite is the first and, so far, only horse to go jumping in the Pearl Bloodstock colours. By the versatile superstar sire Dubawi, he was a classy performer on the level for Ralph Beckett, winning 5 times and finishing just 9 ½ lengths behind the hugely exciting Beaten Up on his final flat start. It was hoped by his Owner, Sheikh Fahad, that if he could transfer his flat ability to hurdles he could set his sights on Cheltenham.

For his first start in the care of Charlie Longsdon Vulcanite was set a stiff task at Kempton on Boxing Day. He faced the Nicky Henderson trained Tetlami who had won his bumper and debut over hurdles impressively. Since then the form of Tetlami’s first run over hurdles has been franked with the second and third winning good races next time out, showing just how tough a test this was for Vulcanite. He ran a race full of promise in finishing a good second with Tetlami all out to beat him by 3 ½ lengths. After the race Charlie Longsdon said it was just inexperience that cost him the race and that the next time he met Tetlami, Vulcanite would reverse the form. On Wednesday, Vulcanite had his second run over hurdles at Southwell. It was a weak race and his trainer admitted that he had to win impressively to be considered for the Supreme. Going off at 1/4 Charlie Longsdon’s charge did not disappoint. Travelling strongly at the head of affairs he quickened away from the field hard on the bridle to win by 7 lengths in the style that was expected.  

On both starts Vulcanite has raced keenly but he was less keen at Southwell, suggesting he is improving with experience. He is likely to have one more run before Cheltenham in which he will have to learn to settle better otherwise he is going to struggle come March. Although it can be argued that he has been keen because, so far, his races have been slowly run. Hence the pace of the Supreme should be in his favour. Another positive for Vulcanite’s Cheltenham aspirations has been his jumping. Following two blunders at his first two hurdles jumped in public at Kempton, Vulcanite has jumped well and enthusiastically. He clearly enjoys his new job and we haven’t seen the best of him yet. The 25/1 available for the Supreme Novices seems a fair price.

However, I am not desperate to take that price at this stage as I see his comfortable victory at Southwell as yet another boost to the extremely solid Tetlami form. I would be far more interested in the 20/1 about him. Connections suggest that Vulcanite should reverse the form with Tetlami next time but I’m not convinced. Even if he were to, it seems that Henderson has at least two with better chances than Tetlami, particularly Simonsig, therefore Vulcanite will have to take a giant leap forward on his next start for me to see him as a contender.  

Cinders And Ashes is a very likeable 5yo who travels strongly, jumps well and quickens like a high class horse. Donald McCain loves him and is confident he can win this year’s Supreme. He was a talented bumper horse, winning twice at smaller tracks before acquitting himself well twice at Cheltenham. On his first run at Cheltenham he was beaten a short head by the talented flat performer Keys. This was some of the best bumper form around and his connections went into the Champion Bumper full of confidence. The son of Beat Hollow travelled like the best horse in the race but weakened, eventually finishing fifth. With an extra year on his back his trainer asserts that he has grown and is a stronger animal.

This season, Cinders And Ashes has run four times over hurdles and should be unbeaten. His only defeat came on his first start at Ascot to Broadbackbob. Having made what looked a race ending error at the fifth flight he lost significant ground on the leaders but eventually picked up again, and to his credit was leading at the last. Unfortunately for his connections his efforts in recovering his position took their toll and he was just outstayed by the Nicky Henderson gelding. Broadbackbob is a smart individual and should have a great chance in the Neptune Investments Novices’ Hurdle, so, on the face of it this was a pleasing debut over hurdles for Donald McCain’s horse. Next time, at Aintree, he came up against his old adversary Keys. Whilst Keys was evidently not suited by the conditions, Cinders And Ashes reversed the form in no uncertain terms, proving just how much he had improved since last season and his liking for soft ground. This was a striking performance, he won by 9 lengths in the end, and is probably still his best over hurdles. His last two runs have been in small fields at Haydock on heavy going and both have been similar performances. On each occasion he has travelled smoothly through the race and picked up the leader late on, before showing his superior class and quickening away. The form of each run is hard to evaluate but his latest performance was more significant as he beat two well regarded horses from top stables and the runner up, Double Ross, has form that ties in with the best novice hurdler around, Fingal Bay. This was also the race Donald McCain ran Peddlers Cross in before his Cheltenham Festival victory.

The trainer’s plan now is to head straight to the Supreme and Cinders And Ashes looks a strong candidate. He has strong bumper form, he handles Cheltenham, jumps hurdles well and travels like the high class horse he appears to be. As a consequence, he is fancied by many and now the longest price available for him is 14/1. This, again, is not an unreasonable price and he has achieved far more than Darlan so far, who is shorter in the betting. It is very hard to knock him but his best form has come on soft or heavy ground. He may well improve for the quicker ground in the spring but it is worth pointing out. As is the fact that he made a shocking jumping error on debut and another mistake at the last on Saturday. In the Supreme he will not have the time to get back into the race like he did at Ascot and he will not be so superior to his rivals that a final flight blunder will not matter, as he was at Haydock. In short, Cinders And Ashes will be thereabouts coming to the last in the festival opener but I would be surprised if there wasn’t at least one horse in front of him come the line.

Midnight Game was bought by Willie Mullins at the Arqana Sale in Saint-Cloud for €185,000 having been runner up twice in listed company on the flat for Jean-Claude Rouget. This was the same sale that in 2009 he bought Zaidpour and it was hoped this son of Montjeu would be a similarly good novice hurdler.

Unlucky not to win first time over hurdles having been hampered at the last, Midnight Game has progressed from there. On his next start he was fourth behind stablemate Sous Les Cieux in the Grade 1 Royal Bond and he would have been closer had he not nearly fallen two from home. Next he went to Leopardstown on Boxing Day an 11/10 favourite and won, beating a subsequent winner, Joxer, by half a length in the process. He stepped up again on that run next time at Naas this weekend in beating the highly touted Dylan Ross comfortably by 2 ½ lengths. With this rate of improvement he has quickly made up into a smart novice hurdler and there is even more to come. What excites me about him is that Mullins believes he is certain to improve for the quicker ground he will face at Cheltenham. This on top of his already progressive profile bodes extremely well for his festival challenge.

As is often the case with Mullins there are a number of different horses he could run in the Supreme Novices and also the Neptune Investments over half a mile further. This makes antepost betting on his horses tricky but luckily for Midnight Game supporters he has stated that the Supreme is the aim. Whether he will be the Mullins first string is another question. The trainer has mentioned recently that the likely target for his, aforementioned, Grade 1 winning novice hurdler Sous Les Cieux is also the Supreme. I am a huge fan of this French bred and Mullins feels he has the requisite speed to challenge over 2m on quick ground but I see him as a better prospect over further. Were Mullins to agree and step him up in trip for the Neptune then I would have to look extremely closely at Midnight Game. If Mullins did make it clear, soon, that he was the best of his 2m novice hurdlers then the 20/1 currently available would look big and quite tempting.