Supreme Novices Hurdle: Preview and Selection

The disappointment of Simonsig taking up his entry in the Neptune Investment Management Novices’ hurdle instead of the Supreme has taken a while to get over but I am just about there now and I feel it is appropriate to put up another selection for the race.

Looking at the Supreme field it appears to be a weaker group than has often been the case, particularly compared to last season’s vintage renewal, and with the outstanding candidate Simonsig going elsewhere it has been left to another Henderson inmate, Darlan, to take up the mantle as favourite. Darlan has been highly vaunted all his life and after his 27 length victory in his bumper great things were expected. He has generally been impressive but worryingly for favourite backers his worst performance was over the course in December and he is coming into the race off the back of a heavy fall at Newbury. That run looked likely to be his best yet and had he won or been in the first three then his current price may be justified. However, it is plausible that he would have found little coming off the bridle and finished 5th. We are still unsure of what he will find when asked, and despite his tall reputation at home this question mark stands, therefore 9/2 is simply too short to consider taking.  

I also have doubts over the next few in the market, all at single figures. Steps To Freedom looked one of the top bumper horses last season having won the Aintree bumper in good style and has been at or near the top of the betting for the Supreme Novices ever since. Following a productive flat season Jessie Harrington’s charge won his first two hurdle races comfortably and he was sent to Cheltenham in November in order to gain experience of the track. At the time managing to beat Prospect Wells looked high class form, especially with the promising Ericht back in third. Subsequent events have shown this form to be far weaker than first impressions indicated with Prospect Wells being exposed next time in a handicap at Ascot and Ericht showing little to nothing in three subsequent starts. Steps To Freedom was probably better than he showed that day on the back of a hard flat season and two quick hurdle runs but I still doubt whether he will be quite good enough here.

Galileos Choice is next in the betting but I see his price as being mainly based around his flat form, which is admittedly high class, as his hurdle runs haven’t been at a standard where he deserves to be 7/1 for the Supreme. He should have won the Royal Bond were he a genuine contender, instead he lost to a stayer in Sous Les Cieux and then he beat a four mile chaser next time in the manner one would expect. Galileos Choice may improve for faster ground and he is still lightly raced so there should be more to come but his trainer is gearing him up for a full flat season. Dermot Weld has also said he doubts his horse has enough experience for a race of this nature and as a result I am content in avoiding him.

Cinders And Ashes since his horror mistake at Ascot, costing him the race, has jumped well and shown a great deal of class in a couple of comfortable heavy ground victories in the north. This added to his useful bumper form from last season marks him out as a major contender for the race. Saying that, he finished tamely in the Cheltenham Champion Bumper having travelled smoothly and has beaten little of note since defeating Keys, who has let the form down subsequently anyway. Donald McCain’s novice, by Beat Hollow, has solid credentials but it would surprise me were there not a horse with bit more class in there capable of swooping past him up the famous Cheltenham Hill.

The final Horse generally available in single figures at the moment is the Willie Mullins trained Midnight Game. He is a horse with an eye-catching progressive profile and last time out he pulled away nicely from a talented yardstick in Dylan Ross. With further likely improvement likely to come due to the sounder surface, he will likely face at Cheltenham, he looks a leading contender and the 10/1 available in the odd place is reasonable. This son of Montjeu is also a reportedly good home worker which is why it is so unnerving to hear Willie Mullins be so disappointed with his recent efforts, as such he is no longer a definite runner and, even if he was, these negative reports so close to the race would be enough to put anyone off getting involved now or on the day.

Midnight Game is owned by the Gigginstown juggernaut and their retained jockey, Davy Russell, is going to have a tough decision to make as he will also have the option of riding my selection TRIFOLIUM. He is 14/1 generally and if Davy Russell does decide to ride him then he will be significantly shorter. I had my concerns about the Charles Byrnes runner after his last run and at the time it seemed like he may not even run at Cheltenham, but now that seems very much the plan. One of my concerns is that all his best form is on soft/heavy ground and he has seemed to enjoy the test of ploughing through mud over 2 miles. It is to be taken on trust that he will handle the quicker ground at Cheltenham and for him to win he will need to improve for it as well but his trainer is confident he will do. I am willing to believe him now seeing as the Supreme is his target and the way he quickened so impressively last time suggests he should have the necessary speed to compete over the minimum trip on the projected ground.

Trifolium was not fully extended on his most recent start and yet he beat Simenon, well regarded by Willie Mullins, by nine lengths. The rate of improvement he has shown suggests he is one of the few in the Supreme who could still be anything and since the application of cheek pieces he has jumped accurately, a trait that is necessary for this race, which, in all likelihood, will be run at a furious pace. Davy Russell has mentioned a worry that Trifolium has so far pulled quite hard which will have a detrimental effect on his Cheltenham challenge and this was the excuse given for his convincing defeat by So Young. He was far better at Punchestown though and So Young is an extremely high class animal who should be challenging Big Buck’s, hence there was no disgrace in that performance. This was probably Trifolium’s only run against top class opposition and he seemed to fail which must niggle but he was not at his best that day and even so, without Simonsig in the field, there does not appear to be a truly top class horse in opposition. At 14/1 this son of Goldneyev (also the sire of Balder Succes) is value and there is scope to shorten, with the possibility of him becoming the only Gigginstown House Stud representative, even if he isn’t, money will surely come for him given the doubts around many of the others. With so much potential and all the necessary attributes to be competitive in a Supreme Novices’ Hurdle, Trifolium has every chance of kicking off the meeting with an Irish victory.

The Rest

Colour Squadron and Montbazon are closely matched having beaten each other at Newbury this season. Colour Squadron was travelling strongly when falling last time and could have beaten Montbazon again, in which case he is overpriced at the moment. His tendency to hang is a huge concern, though, as he showed when giving away the Tolworth and he possibly prefers softer ground. This would be enough to put me off him and I don’t rate Montbazon any higher. He looks to me the sort who will appreciate further and is yet to excite me over hurdles in the way he did in bumpers. Tetlami, a winner of a Cheltenham bumper, is a solid candidate for Nicky Henderson but the vibes from the yard are that Darlan is their number one. He is probably underestimated, as he is not a flashy sort, but his form at Kempton has taken a knock with Vulcanite’s recent run at Newbury. It was Vulcanite’s first run over obstacles when second to Tetlami at Kempton and he has surely improved since then. Having gained experience he is possibly capable of reversing that form, especially with the progress in his jumping which is now superior to anything else in the field. This is so important at Cheltenham hence at a big price it would be no surprise to see him finish in the frame. Last time at Newbury he was not ridden to best effect and he must be better than he showed there.

Prospect Wells has come in for support recently with him being seen as a value bet considering his proximity to Steps To Freedom at the Paddy Power meeting in November. I take the view that Jessica Harington’s star novice was below his best that day and Prospect Wells was flattered. Since then Paul Nicholls’ charge has been exposed as below top class and his last run, behind Colour Squadron at Sandown, was lamentable. He reportedly had a breathing problem there, which has been fixed, but it is very rare for a horse to run so poorly on his final start before Cheltenham and still win the Supreme.

Supreme Novices Update: Newbury, Ascot, Fairyhouse and Kelso

It was an important week for Supreme Novices candidates and it was probably the last time we were likely to see those with real chances running before the festival. There is still the chance that one or two of the very good four year olds could target the race following the Adonis on Saturday but the Triumph hurdle is naturally the more obvious target.

Newbury

On free-day Friday at Newbury we saw Darlan in the Betfair Hurdle and Montbazon, Vulcanite and Colour Squadron in a particularly competitive Novices event. Darlan had been around 9/1 second favourite behind Zarkandar for a while going into the Betfair Hurdle but he was weak on the day and drifted to 12/1. There were doubts over the strength of his form, for all that he was unbeaten, as he had not yet been properly tested. Following his last victory on the bridle at Taunton, where he beat Jump City by half a length, Barry Geraghty was keen to play down the amount he was likely to find once asked a question. As a result it was quite surprising to see the handicapper bump him up 9lbs afterwards; this was reduced by 3lbs later on after Jump City ran so poorly next time out, but it was too late for Friday’s (rearranged) race as the weights were already published.  

Darlan

We didn’t know how good Darlan actually was in the run up to last week’s run and after the race we are still none the wiser. Held up in the last third of the field for most of the way, McCoy kept Darlan wide presumably to give him a good view of his hurdles and ironically he jumped well. Often gaining ground at his obstacles, he travelled strongly and was not inconvenienced as the pace quickened. He moved sweetly through the field on the approach to the home turn and despite his inexperience he squeezed through a gap on the bend, putting him in third as they straightened up for the run-in. Travelling best of all, he reached two out just sharing the lead looking the most likely winner, before he failed to pick his legs up at the hurdle and took a crunching fall.

There is no way of knowing, until he runs again, what he would have found off the bridle. He may have found a great deal and still lost considering the race was won by a top Champion Hurdle prospect. Whatever happens, this performance will have enhanced Darlan’s reputation and at least his price for the Supreme no longer looks ridiculously short. This son of Milan is evidently a live contender for the traditional opener to the festival and if one knew that he had suffered no ill-effects from his fall then it would be folly to rule him out. It is quite a large ‘if’, however, as it was quite a major incident for a horse with so few miles on the clock and he may well remember such an unpleasant experience next time. It is also notable that he has made a mistake late on in every hurdle race he has run in. The least severe of these was at Cheltenham but he did lose momentum and he came slowly away from the flight, only managing to beat the vastly inferior High Storm by a nose. Whether he makes these mistakes because his jumping suffers as the pace quickens, or whether everything comes so easily to him that he loses concentration, is difficult to decide but it will be a nagging doubt in my mind particularly as he will face a number of fluent hurdlers at the festival. Had Darlan jumped the last two at Newbury fluently and won the Betfair Hurdle he would no doubt be favourite for the Supreme and the 12/1 available now would look massive. Sadly for connections he didn’t and still, for me, Darlan is too much of an unknown quantity to get involved with. Yet, at the same time, it would come as no shock were he to win handsomely in March.  

The very next race on Newbury’s card was a 2m Novices’ Hurdle involving three well regarded sorts all with great expectations. Montbazon came out comfortably on top but the race had a rather unsatisfactory feel to it. They went a slow pace early and when the three market principals drew alongside each other at the second last flight, the horse going best, Colour Squadron, fell.

Montbazon

I was huge fan of Montbazon as a bumper horse last season and I fully expected win the bumper at Cheltenham on his first start back but he was in need of the race and failed to impress in the paddock. Alan King’s charge clearly benefitted from the experience and his first run over hurdles came at Newbury where he was beaten into second on ground that didn’t suit by, the aforementioned, Colour Squadron. His next run came at Plumpton where he was sent off at 1/10 and won as expected but his jumping throughout was sloppy. This was concerning and, wrongly, I was worried that these frailties might find him out against a far better class of opposition but he looked an extremely competent hurdler on Friday. He travelled well through the race and when sent on to reach the leaders before two out he responded, before moving decisively clear of Vulcanite from the last.

Montbazon was rightly shortened significantly in the market for the Supreme and he looks to hold a sound each way chance. Beforehand on Friday he was the clear paddock pick, he was fit and imposing and looked a different horse to when I had last seen him at Cheltenham. If he stands out like this in March then he is worthy of consideration at least, especially as he appears to have the requisite stamina to win a Supreme Novices, but I am not convinced he is quite as classy as a number of other runners. The way he pulled away at Newbury was pleasing but he doesn’t have the burst acceleration that a few at the head of the Supreme market seem to. He looks more of a strong galloper and may be better suited to further in the long term. Finishing 7l clear of the well regarded Vulcanite is strong form on paper but Montbazon hasn’t excited me this year like he did last and I feel Vulcanite probably didn’t run best race either.

Vulcanite

Vulcanite was a little keen at Newbury and making his own pace is unlikely to have suited him. He was tiring from the last and without the departure of Colour Squadron he would have finished third. With a lead and a fast pace at Cheltenham I am sure he will be seen in a better light. I couldn’t be sure that he would reverse the form with Montbazon but I doubt there would be 7l in it. What he did show at Newbury, which bodes well for Cheltenham, was his exceptional jumping. He never broke stride, so quick and nimble, I would be surprised if anything could match him in this department in the Supreme having seen this display. The marked improvement from his first start where he ploughed through the first two hurdles is astonishing. Also worth noting is that since I last wrote about Vulcanite’s Supreme prospects his form has taken a notable boost. It was clear that his run behind Tetlami was strong form but when he thrashed a field at Southwell it was widely reported that he beat very little. In fact, 7l down in second was Spiekeroog who won his next start defeating Bourne in the process. Bourne then came out at Ascot on Saturday and was impressive in winning a competitive handicap hurdle. If Vulcanite’s run at Newbury can be forgiven then he looks a solid outsider for Cheltenham.

Colour Squadron

The second last had an impact on all the hurdle races at Newbury. Colour Squadron’s fall there was a major disappointment as he looked to be tanking along in between Montbazon and Vulcanite. Richard Johnson reined him back in an attempt to stop him hitting the front too soon on account of his antics at Sandown but before he could let him go the Old Vic gelding slithered on landing ejecting his rider. Much like Darlan you cannot be sure if Colour Squadron would have won but you have a much better idea as he had defeated Montbazon on the course previously so he would surely have been thereabouts. Of course, that is to forget the quirks he seems to have developed and with his violent hanging in the Grade 1 Tolworth he is surely one to avoid in any race of note, particularly the Supreme Novices Hurdle.

Ascot

At Ascot on Saturday a horse leapt into the reckoning for the Supreme with an emphatic display. Following two impressive wins, in a minor novice hurdle at Plumpton and a three runner juvenile hurdle at Ascot, Balder Succes was thought of as a possible Fred Winter or Aintree juvenile hurdle horse. He was running on Saturday against his elders, in a better race than he had previously faced, with the aim of discovering if he could be worthy of a place in the Triumph hurdle. He was so impressive on Saturday in beating the useful Captain Sunshine that he is now under consideration for the Supreme Novices against older horses. He jumped with real enthusiasm on Saturday and he again displayed an easy way of going which suggests a fast pace should suit. He showed how much class he’s got by quickening clear from the second last and at his age he should keep improving. I would have him ahead of Montbazon in terms of his chance in the Supreme and the four year old allowance can only be a benefit.

I must temper my enthusiasm by saying that the race somewhat fell apart at Ascot. His main rival Hazy Tom, whose form had worked out so well earlier in the season, was far too keen and in the end ran a horrible race. Similarly the second, Captain Sunshine was outpaced at an alarmingly early stage before staying on. It was a race that didn’t take much winning but he could do no more than win in the manner he did. Very few novice hurdlers have created such a good impression this season and at this stage the Supreme Novices looks the right race but as a juvenile hurdler there is the always chance he could run in the Triumph. This may well be an easier race and he now looks right among the best of his age group. I just believe Alan King would rather run him in the Supreme as Grumeti looks to have a better chance in the Triumph than Montbazon does in the Supreme and he has already proved himself against older horses. As a consequence, the 20/1 widely available (25/1 in a place) looks generous.  

Fairyhouse

On Wednesday two horses at the head of the Supreme Novices market ran and won impressively without coming off the bridle. The first was Galileo’s Choice at Fairyhouse, the second was Simonsig at Kelso. Galileo’s Choice won as he was entitled to, never coming off the bridle in defeating Becauseicouldntsee by 4 ½ lengths. As novice hurdle form that is nothing special seeing as the second is more a 4 mile chaser than a 2 mile hurdler but this son of Galileo travelled and quickened like the smart horse he had already shown to be. He is a Group 3 winner on the flat, looks to have plenty of speed and he clearly stays well as he showed when chasing home Sous Les Cieux in the Grade 1 Royal Bond. He should really have won that race however and he lacks the scope for improvement that a number of others in the Supreme have, including Midnight Game who finished well behind him that day. There probably won’t be many in the festival curtain raiser with as much class as him but he still hasn’t done or shown enough for me over hurdles to consider him as a likely winner and with his trainer’s record at the festival he is one at a short price that I am willing to strike a line through.

Kelso

In the Morebattle Hurdle we saw Simonsig win hard held from another staying chaser Knockara Beau. Run over 2m 2f this race told us very little about Simonsig that we didn’t already know. As my antepost selection for the Supreme I had been hoping for Nicky Henderson to drop him back in trip to 2m to really test his speed. Instead he ran over a trip in between that of the Neptune and the Supreme. Nicky Henderson still insists he has not decided which race to go for with this imposing grey but Barry Geraghty has already voiced a preference for the longer race as it will give a bit more time at his hurdles. Simonsig made mistakes at the final two hurdles at Kelso but there was an excuse for those as the sun was very low and he probably had trouble seeing the flights. Aside from those I have seen no issues with his jumping and in fact I see it as an asset. Geraghty clearly has his own interests in that he already has a strong ride in the Supreme, Tetlami, where as in the Neptune he has nothing outside of Simonsig that could challenge those at the head of the market. I can therefore forgive him this oversight but from all the evidence I have seen he must go for the Supreme. The major point is that in the Neptune he has to take on Fingal Bay again who comprehensively beat him at Sandown. While Simonsig may not have been at his very best that day I still don’t see him reversing the form over the longer trip. Furthermore, in the Neptune he will face Boston Bob and Monksland, two other outstanding candidates where as the Supreme has a far more open feel to it, for which he is favourite (as short as 6/1). In the Neptune, Simonsig will be one of the best, in the Supreme he will be THE best. This is a point trainer Nicky Henderson has already alluded to and for that reason I would still be inclined to think he will run in the shorter race. Hopefully this is not just wishful thinking.....