Triumph Hurdle Update: Baby Mix, Sadler’s Risk, Grumeti and Minsk

Kempton

Racing Plus chase day is traditionally informative for the Triumph Hurdle, offering the last recognised trial for the race. The Adonis Hurdle has a quite astonishing role of honour and in the last two years it has produced the last two Triumph winners, incidentally both making the debuts in this country. It is often the race where trainers target their top Triumph prospects and this was again in evidence on Saturday.

My immediate reaction to the race was to take a dim view of the form but having watched it a few more times I realise that was rash and I was probably influenced by my ill-thought-out backing of Dildar, who’s jumping will have to improve dramatically if he is to be any sort of force over hurdles. I haven’t yet warmed to Baby Mix and following his abject performance at Cheltenham, on Trials Day, I felt I had taken the right stance on him. He was undeniably impressive in the Adonis though, and with the previous antepost favourite for the Triumph (with a few bookmakers at least) in second, well clear of the third, there is more substance to the form than I had originally given credit for.

Baby Mix travelled strongly in second, during Saturday’s race, off the punishing pace set by the admirable Dark And Dangerous and, barring one shuddering error at the fourth flight, jumped noticeably well. A trait I had not associated with Tom George’s charge, he jumped particularly poorly on his last start. Paddy Brennan took it up as they turned into the straight, which was a bold move as he left himself vulnerable to not only a strong stayer but also his own questionable temperament, and his superiority told as he pulled away nicely from Sadler’s Risk. He may have given backers of the second hope as he seemingly idled towards the finish, but this was nothing less than a comfortable victory for the son of Al Namix.

Baby Mix came to everyone’s attention when he stormed clear of the well regarded Hinterland at Cheltenham’s December meeting. However, I’m yet to be convinced that was a good as it looked as Hinterland took a keen hold through the race and would clearly have benefitted from a lead. Baby Mix also showed he was not the most straightforward on the run in with the awkward way he carried himself, especially his tail. These signs were a precursor to his temperamental run at the same course in January. He fought for his head with Paddy Brennan for most of the race and found nothing of the bridle as a result. Of most concern, however, was his attempt to run out as they straightened up for home. Tom George has said he has ironed out these problems and they did not seem to affect him on Saturday but they will always be in the back of one’s mind when considering Baby Mix for the Triumph. While his defeat of Sadler’s Risk looks strong and on that basis is rightly sitting at the top of the antepost market, with the likely crowds and atmosphere at the Festival on Gold Cup day these issues may resurface and that would be enough to put me off him.

The Triumph is over one furlong further than the Adonis and if Baby Mix displays his least redeeming features in that then Sadler’s Risk looks capable of reversing the form and threatening the other major contenders in March. This son of Sadler’s Wells was useful on the flat and beat the high class Sea Moon in his maiden. He showed his toughness on the level which is important when making the transition to hurdles and on his first start for Hobbs, also at Kempton, he went off at even money and won with considerable ease. Sadler’s Risk won as impressively as one could have hoped for and he was made antepost favourite for the Triumph after the race. Many expressed concerns that he had beaten little but the Philip Hobbs stable rate him highly and were expecting him to win hence he was still sent off another well backed favourite for the Adonis. He was keen early in the race but as the pace quickened he was always going best behind Baby Mix. Unfortunately for connections he just couldn’t match the jumping or pace of the winner for all that he stayed on promisingly at the finish. He may have been flattered by the proximity to the winner but Sadler’s Risk does look a solid proposition for the Triumph with the necessary stamina and it would be remiss of me to put anyone off having a go each way but I fear he may just lack the class of some including Saturday’s winners Baby Mix and Grumeti.

It was thought that Grumeti would take in the Adonis as his last prep race for the festival but connections were eager for him not to have a hard race so close to the Triumph so they switched to the Dovecote Hurdle which, in comparison, looked easy pickings. The late withdrawal of principal rival Keys meant his only significant dangers were two horses yet to run over hurdles Terre Du Vent and Dodging Bullets. Both ran highly promising races and, assuming Terre Du Vent recovers from her nasty fall, they should both go on to better things. Grumeti won just as intended without coming off the Bridle and he should be set up nicely for Cheltenham. As has been the case through his hurdling career he jumped quickly and accurately here and, but for an unlucky slither on landing at Newbury, he would be carrying an unbeaten record forward to the Triumph. He is at present a worthy favourite for that and should have every chance of giving Alan King his next Triumph Hurdle winner, interestingly so should stablemate Balder Succes, extremely impressive at Ascot, who looks to be going that route as well now and Robert Thornton has a tough decision to make. It is possible that Balder Succes’ preference for give in the ground may point him towards Grumeti, although he has not confirmed anything yet.

Fairyhouse

The value in the Triumph Hurdle market may now lie in Ireland with the likes of Darroun and Shadow Catcher but value is not something you could have accused Minsk of being before his run at Fairyhouse on Saturday. Ever since his ultra impressive win in the Irish Cesarewitch Minsk has been talked up as a Triumph Hurdle horse and as such was always around the head of the antepost market for it. As word came out from the Dessie Hughes stable that he had taken to hurdling well more and more people were seemingly backing him in anticipation of a scintillating display on debut, resulting in him being around 6/1 favourite for the Triumph before his run on Saturday. For a horse who had never run over hurdles before this looked a short price and so it proved, for all that he had excuses.

With so much expected one could feel only disappointment after he finished second but for any normal debut run over hurdles this was more than you could hope for, especially in a Grade 2. He jumped fine on the whole, with one early mistake and a slightly slow leap at the last but he clearly just needs experience. It was a decent performance, splitting two talented if not brilliant juveniles, and it was also impressive how, having been held up in rear for most of the race, he made his way to the front just before the last where that slow leap cost him ground and potentially victory. The subsequent discovery of an infection makes the performance all the more meritorious, and it would be difficult to argue that he will not turn out to be the best hurdler in the race. Sadly with this ailment he misses the Triumph Hurdle and we will have to wait a little longer to discover if he can justify the tremendous hype surrounding him.

Supreme Novices Update: Newbury, Ascot, Fairyhouse and Kelso

It was an important week for Supreme Novices candidates and it was probably the last time we were likely to see those with real chances running before the festival. There is still the chance that one or two of the very good four year olds could target the race following the Adonis on Saturday but the Triumph hurdle is naturally the more obvious target.

Newbury

On free-day Friday at Newbury we saw Darlan in the Betfair Hurdle and Montbazon, Vulcanite and Colour Squadron in a particularly competitive Novices event. Darlan had been around 9/1 second favourite behind Zarkandar for a while going into the Betfair Hurdle but he was weak on the day and drifted to 12/1. There were doubts over the strength of his form, for all that he was unbeaten, as he had not yet been properly tested. Following his last victory on the bridle at Taunton, where he beat Jump City by half a length, Barry Geraghty was keen to play down the amount he was likely to find once asked a question. As a result it was quite surprising to see the handicapper bump him up 9lbs afterwards; this was reduced by 3lbs later on after Jump City ran so poorly next time out, but it was too late for Friday’s (rearranged) race as the weights were already published.  

Darlan

We didn’t know how good Darlan actually was in the run up to last week’s run and after the race we are still none the wiser. Held up in the last third of the field for most of the way, McCoy kept Darlan wide presumably to give him a good view of his hurdles and ironically he jumped well. Often gaining ground at his obstacles, he travelled strongly and was not inconvenienced as the pace quickened. He moved sweetly through the field on the approach to the home turn and despite his inexperience he squeezed through a gap on the bend, putting him in third as they straightened up for the run-in. Travelling best of all, he reached two out just sharing the lead looking the most likely winner, before he failed to pick his legs up at the hurdle and took a crunching fall.

There is no way of knowing, until he runs again, what he would have found off the bridle. He may have found a great deal and still lost considering the race was won by a top Champion Hurdle prospect. Whatever happens, this performance will have enhanced Darlan’s reputation and at least his price for the Supreme no longer looks ridiculously short. This son of Milan is evidently a live contender for the traditional opener to the festival and if one knew that he had suffered no ill-effects from his fall then it would be folly to rule him out. It is quite a large ‘if’, however, as it was quite a major incident for a horse with so few miles on the clock and he may well remember such an unpleasant experience next time. It is also notable that he has made a mistake late on in every hurdle race he has run in. The least severe of these was at Cheltenham but he did lose momentum and he came slowly away from the flight, only managing to beat the vastly inferior High Storm by a nose. Whether he makes these mistakes because his jumping suffers as the pace quickens, or whether everything comes so easily to him that he loses concentration, is difficult to decide but it will be a nagging doubt in my mind particularly as he will face a number of fluent hurdlers at the festival. Had Darlan jumped the last two at Newbury fluently and won the Betfair Hurdle he would no doubt be favourite for the Supreme and the 12/1 available now would look massive. Sadly for connections he didn’t and still, for me, Darlan is too much of an unknown quantity to get involved with. Yet, at the same time, it would come as no shock were he to win handsomely in March.  

The very next race on Newbury’s card was a 2m Novices’ Hurdle involving three well regarded sorts all with great expectations. Montbazon came out comfortably on top but the race had a rather unsatisfactory feel to it. They went a slow pace early and when the three market principals drew alongside each other at the second last flight, the horse going best, Colour Squadron, fell.

Montbazon

I was huge fan of Montbazon as a bumper horse last season and I fully expected win the bumper at Cheltenham on his first start back but he was in need of the race and failed to impress in the paddock. Alan King’s charge clearly benefitted from the experience and his first run over hurdles came at Newbury where he was beaten into second on ground that didn’t suit by, the aforementioned, Colour Squadron. His next run came at Plumpton where he was sent off at 1/10 and won as expected but his jumping throughout was sloppy. This was concerning and, wrongly, I was worried that these frailties might find him out against a far better class of opposition but he looked an extremely competent hurdler on Friday. He travelled well through the race and when sent on to reach the leaders before two out he responded, before moving decisively clear of Vulcanite from the last.

Montbazon was rightly shortened significantly in the market for the Supreme and he looks to hold a sound each way chance. Beforehand on Friday he was the clear paddock pick, he was fit and imposing and looked a different horse to when I had last seen him at Cheltenham. If he stands out like this in March then he is worthy of consideration at least, especially as he appears to have the requisite stamina to win a Supreme Novices, but I am not convinced he is quite as classy as a number of other runners. The way he pulled away at Newbury was pleasing but he doesn’t have the burst acceleration that a few at the head of the Supreme market seem to. He looks more of a strong galloper and may be better suited to further in the long term. Finishing 7l clear of the well regarded Vulcanite is strong form on paper but Montbazon hasn’t excited me this year like he did last and I feel Vulcanite probably didn’t run best race either.

Vulcanite

Vulcanite was a little keen at Newbury and making his own pace is unlikely to have suited him. He was tiring from the last and without the departure of Colour Squadron he would have finished third. With a lead and a fast pace at Cheltenham I am sure he will be seen in a better light. I couldn’t be sure that he would reverse the form with Montbazon but I doubt there would be 7l in it. What he did show at Newbury, which bodes well for Cheltenham, was his exceptional jumping. He never broke stride, so quick and nimble, I would be surprised if anything could match him in this department in the Supreme having seen this display. The marked improvement from his first start where he ploughed through the first two hurdles is astonishing. Also worth noting is that since I last wrote about Vulcanite’s Supreme prospects his form has taken a notable boost. It was clear that his run behind Tetlami was strong form but when he thrashed a field at Southwell it was widely reported that he beat very little. In fact, 7l down in second was Spiekeroog who won his next start defeating Bourne in the process. Bourne then came out at Ascot on Saturday and was impressive in winning a competitive handicap hurdle. If Vulcanite’s run at Newbury can be forgiven then he looks a solid outsider for Cheltenham.

Colour Squadron

The second last had an impact on all the hurdle races at Newbury. Colour Squadron’s fall there was a major disappointment as he looked to be tanking along in between Montbazon and Vulcanite. Richard Johnson reined him back in an attempt to stop him hitting the front too soon on account of his antics at Sandown but before he could let him go the Old Vic gelding slithered on landing ejecting his rider. Much like Darlan you cannot be sure if Colour Squadron would have won but you have a much better idea as he had defeated Montbazon on the course previously so he would surely have been thereabouts. Of course, that is to forget the quirks he seems to have developed and with his violent hanging in the Grade 1 Tolworth he is surely one to avoid in any race of note, particularly the Supreme Novices Hurdle.

Ascot

At Ascot on Saturday a horse leapt into the reckoning for the Supreme with an emphatic display. Following two impressive wins, in a minor novice hurdle at Plumpton and a three runner juvenile hurdle at Ascot, Balder Succes was thought of as a possible Fred Winter or Aintree juvenile hurdle horse. He was running on Saturday against his elders, in a better race than he had previously faced, with the aim of discovering if he could be worthy of a place in the Triumph hurdle. He was so impressive on Saturday in beating the useful Captain Sunshine that he is now under consideration for the Supreme Novices against older horses. He jumped with real enthusiasm on Saturday and he again displayed an easy way of going which suggests a fast pace should suit. He showed how much class he’s got by quickening clear from the second last and at his age he should keep improving. I would have him ahead of Montbazon in terms of his chance in the Supreme and the four year old allowance can only be a benefit.

I must temper my enthusiasm by saying that the race somewhat fell apart at Ascot. His main rival Hazy Tom, whose form had worked out so well earlier in the season, was far too keen and in the end ran a horrible race. Similarly the second, Captain Sunshine was outpaced at an alarmingly early stage before staying on. It was a race that didn’t take much winning but he could do no more than win in the manner he did. Very few novice hurdlers have created such a good impression this season and at this stage the Supreme Novices looks the right race but as a juvenile hurdler there is the always chance he could run in the Triumph. This may well be an easier race and he now looks right among the best of his age group. I just believe Alan King would rather run him in the Supreme as Grumeti looks to have a better chance in the Triumph than Montbazon does in the Supreme and he has already proved himself against older horses. As a consequence, the 20/1 widely available (25/1 in a place) looks generous.  

Fairyhouse

On Wednesday two horses at the head of the Supreme Novices market ran and won impressively without coming off the bridle. The first was Galileo’s Choice at Fairyhouse, the second was Simonsig at Kelso. Galileo’s Choice won as he was entitled to, never coming off the bridle in defeating Becauseicouldntsee by 4 ½ lengths. As novice hurdle form that is nothing special seeing as the second is more a 4 mile chaser than a 2 mile hurdler but this son of Galileo travelled and quickened like the smart horse he had already shown to be. He is a Group 3 winner on the flat, looks to have plenty of speed and he clearly stays well as he showed when chasing home Sous Les Cieux in the Grade 1 Royal Bond. He should really have won that race however and he lacks the scope for improvement that a number of others in the Supreme have, including Midnight Game who finished well behind him that day. There probably won’t be many in the festival curtain raiser with as much class as him but he still hasn’t done or shown enough for me over hurdles to consider him as a likely winner and with his trainer’s record at the festival he is one at a short price that I am willing to strike a line through.

Kelso

In the Morebattle Hurdle we saw Simonsig win hard held from another staying chaser Knockara Beau. Run over 2m 2f this race told us very little about Simonsig that we didn’t already know. As my antepost selection for the Supreme I had been hoping for Nicky Henderson to drop him back in trip to 2m to really test his speed. Instead he ran over a trip in between that of the Neptune and the Supreme. Nicky Henderson still insists he has not decided which race to go for with this imposing grey but Barry Geraghty has already voiced a preference for the longer race as it will give a bit more time at his hurdles. Simonsig made mistakes at the final two hurdles at Kelso but there was an excuse for those as the sun was very low and he probably had trouble seeing the flights. Aside from those I have seen no issues with his jumping and in fact I see it as an asset. Geraghty clearly has his own interests in that he already has a strong ride in the Supreme, Tetlami, where as in the Neptune he has nothing outside of Simonsig that could challenge those at the head of the market. I can therefore forgive him this oversight but from all the evidence I have seen he must go for the Supreme. The major point is that in the Neptune he has to take on Fingal Bay again who comprehensively beat him at Sandown. While Simonsig may not have been at his very best that day I still don’t see him reversing the form over the longer trip. Furthermore, in the Neptune he will face Boston Bob and Monksland, two other outstanding candidates where as the Supreme has a far more open feel to it, for which he is favourite (as short as 6/1). In the Neptune, Simonsig will be one of the best, in the Supreme he will be THE best. This is a point trainer Nicky Henderson has already alluded to and for that reason I would still be inclined to think he will run in the shorter race. Hopefully this is not just wishful thinking.....

Deloitte Novice Hurdle Review

Before the race this looked an informative Supreme Novices trial with a number towards the top of the antepost lists, including three grade 1 winners. After the race it looks more like a Neptune Investments/Albert Bartlett novices hurdle trial if it’s to have any bearing on the Cheltenham Festival at all.

Largely unconsidered for the Leopardstown contest and almost entirely unconsidered for the Championship Novice events at the Festival, Benefficient, at odds of 50/1, caused a shock by winning the Deloitte Novices Hurdle over 2m2f. The outsider of the seven runner field set off boldly in front and, thanks to a neat tactical ride from Bryan Cooper, was never headed. Jumping soundly throughout Tony Martin’s charge always looked comfortable and he quickened smartly from the second last creating an unassailable lead in the process.

After a wholly unsuccessful hurdling debut over two miles, he was stepped up in trip an extra four furlongs at Navan. Front-running tactics were employed and he lost his maiden tag in style, defeating the well regarded 1/2 favourite Knockgraffon King by eight lengths. Then, last time out, over a trip over another 2 furlongs further at Thurles more of the same was expected as he was sent off favourite. On this occasion Benefficient ran as if something was amiss, finishing pulled up in a race won by, the admittedly smart, Folsom Blue. After the race he scoped dirty and in hindsight, evidently too much emphasis was placed on this lacklustre display and, as a result, he was severely underestimated in the market for the Deloitte.

While this son of Beneficial deserved his victory, it is hard not to come to the conclusion that the result would have been different were the race to be run again. Tactics were all important and I struggle to envisage him pulling off something similar at Cheltenham, particularly in his probable target the Neptune Investment Management Novices' Hurdle. He is clearly at home over a trip further than two miles hence I would be stunned to discover that the Supreme was on his agenda.

Where Bryan Cooper on Benefficient won the tactical battle, Ruby Walsh on Sous Les Cieux lost it. He held Sous Les Cieux back in last place from the off and he was not helped by the relatively slow jumping from his mount early on. He struggled to get into a threatening position for most of the way until just as Walsh made his move Sous Les Cieux made a race defining error as his momentum was lost, leaving the eventual winner too far clear. Sous Les Cieux stayed on strongly up the straight and was gaining ground on the leader all the way to the line but a second grade 1 victory never looked on the cards.

I have written before of my liking for this horse but I have never been convinced that two miles was his trip. He won his maiden over two-and-a-half miles very impressively and then he was dropped down to the minimum trip in the grade 1 Royal Bond which he also won well. This showed he had the necessary speed for two miles but I felt that a positive ride from Ruby Walsh had won him the day. He picked the pace up from the front runner early in the straight and used his stamina to best effect comfortably holding off the speedy Galileo’s Choice. At Leopardstown, on his next start, he was tried again in a small field grade 1 over two miles (the Future Champions Novice Hurdle) and this time he was in front from the off. Unfortunately for connections he was too keen and folded tamely in a race that seemed all wrong, the form is probably worth ignoring when considering the major novice hurdles in the spring. Most people were content in putting a line through that performance and as such he was sent off favourite on Sunday.

The extra two furlongs were expected to suit and he ran a far better race using tactics far removed from his previous foray to Leopardstown. Had he jumped the second last with any fluency he probably would have won and he may still have been a live candidate for the Supreme but the manner in which he finished on Sunday suggests this is a horse that will surely thrive for a return over further in the Neptune. Ideally I hope Willie Mullins will decide to step the stamina filled Boston Bob up in trip as well and target him at the eminently winnable Albert Bartlett on Gold Cup day, paving the way for Sous Les Cieux to take on Fingal Bay. The current best price available for this son of Saints Des Saints (16/1) is reasonable as I can’t see him going for any other race at Cheltenham and it has the propensity to dramatically shorten were Mullins to do the right thing and run Boston Bob in the Albert Bartlett. If there is a horse to come out of the Deloitte and challenge at Cheltenham it is Sous Les Cieux but it won’t be in the Supreme Novices.   

Another horse bound to improve for a step up in trip was the third on Sunday, Il Fenomeno. This Italian bred son of Denon ran a huge race in the circumstances and is a gelding I had underrated up to this point. In his second season as a novice, Noel Meade’s charge has improved beyond all recognition and his grade 3 win over stablemate Dylan Ross in November set a decent level of form. In the Royal Bond next time he patently lacked the pace for two miles and, as he showed in the Deloitte as well, he lacks the pace of Sous Les Cieux. Il Fenomeno’s run on Sunday suggests to me that a significant step up in trip is required. He put his head down and battled all the way up the run in and even with a final flight blunder he held off a challenge from Lord Windermere. Sadly his only festival entry is in the Supreme and I now doubt whether he will turn up at Cheltenham at all.

Prior to the race Lord Windermere did not look to have the class to win this grade 1 and it showed as he was well placed throughout but lacked the finishing speed of Benefficient, the stamina of Sous Le Cieux and the battling qualities of Il Fenomeno. Finishing fourth was no disgrace and like most of the field he will benefit from a step up in trip but he was exposed as being below top class here and a trip to Cheltenham would surprise me. Of the rest, Burn And Turn was outclassed and finished last but is capable of winning decent races back at her level. The two major disappointments of the race were both previous grade 1 winners. Cash And Go and Captain Conan had both won races where the form is questionable and doubts over their credibility as Supreme Novice candidates were well founded.

Cash And Go had won the Future Champions Novice Hurdle, the race in which Sous Les Cieux disappointed, but I suspect all bar the winner ran below form. Even Edward O’Grady’s charge jumped poorly in winning that grade 1. He had excuses on Sunday, as he was found to be lame and scoped badly post race, so it is possible to put a line through that run but even judged on his grade 1 win he is not a horse I would consider for the Festival curtain raiser.

Captain Conan had been gift-wrapped his grade 1 victory by Colour Squadron in the Tolworth at Sandown. Had Colour Squadron been able to stay on a reasonably straight course he would have won relatively comfortably and the shocking run of Prospect Wells also leaves further question marks surrounding the strength of the form. Nicky Henderson’s French import travelled well through the Deloitte but emptied alarmingly quickly. Inexperience may have cost him and it would not be a surprise if there were excuses akin to those of Cash And Go but as his trainer had suggested before the race Captain Conan is next year’s horse and will in all probability miss Cheltenham. He may well flourish over fences and be serious contender for the 2013 festival but this year Henderson has far better prospects for the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle. 

Supreme Novices Update: Trifolium

During an exceptional weekend of sport one performance may have gone under the radar.  Arsenal’s super seven against Blackburn, Manchester United’s comeback at Stamford Bridge, the titanic tussle between Wales and Ireland in the Six Nations, the Giants’ victory in the Super Bowl and even the demolition of Big Zeb by Sizing Europe all overshadowed Trifolium’s win at Punchestown which has put him right into the Supreme Novices picture. Although with the absence of jump racing in Britain it’s possible many will have been focussed on the Irish racing more than ever.

Trifolium is a more experienced hurdler than most of his likely Supreme rivals. He has already run six times but importantly he seems to have a progressive profile.  On his first two starts in Ireland he ran extremely promising races and was placed on both occasions. Each time he was keen and finished relatively weakly. Accounting for this, his connections decided on a set of cheek pieces and a change in tactics on his next start at Cork where he was allowed to get on with it. Making all, he never saw another rival and in the end pulled, an eye-catching, 24 lengths clear. This change in tactics looked the way to go and next time out he set off in front again. Once more he won comfortably, never off the bridle, beating handicapper Plan A by just over 8 lengths. Trifolium appeared to cope well with the small field on his first start out of novice company so his trainer targeted a similar type of race at Navan for his next run. This time he faced a far sterner test up against one of last season’s top novices So Young.

Trained by the phenomenon that is Willie Mullins, So Young has been talked up as a possible challenger to Big Buck’s over 3 miles this season but on this occasion he stuck to two miles on testing ground. With such a formidable opponent it was always going to be tough and So Young was clearly expected to win as he was sent off at 1/3. He duly did and won well, with Trifolium 7½ lengths behind. On bare form this was another promising run but, in reality it was somewhat disappointing. Intriguingly, the evidently successful front-running tactics weren't employed this time on Trifolium, thereby handing the initiative to the masterful Ruby Walsh. It is possible they were worried about the son of Godneyev’s tendency to be keen and they were hoping to teach him to settle with a view to the festival where it is extremely difficult to win from the front. However, yet again Trifolium took a very keen hold and for the first half of the race Charles Byrne’s charge was fighting with jockey Davy Russell, but surprisingly between the third and second last he looked to be travelling better than So Young. For a second an upset was on the cards, but his early exertions had cost him as Trifolium had nothing more to give when So Young quickened away after the two out. This was to some extent understandable given the strong gallop set by Ruby Walsh on the soft-heavy ground. In spite of this his propensity to pull was alarming for a Cheltenham Festival aspirant and Charles Byrnes was keen himself to give the 5 year old one more run for experience.  

At Punchestown on Sunday they again decided to take a lead but this time he settled noticeably better and travelled smoothly throughout before an ultra impressive turn of foot approaching the home bend put the race to bed, only having to ridden out hands and heels to finish, a more than, convincing 9 lengths clear of another Mullins trained adversary Simenon. This was back in novice company and he was strongly fancied to win, sent off a 7/4 favourite, but nonetheless it was a tremendous display.

This performance would suggest he has a huge chance in the Supreme Novices Hurdle in March. Ever since the cheek pieces were applied his jumping has been assured and it was particularly good on Sunday. He also displayed the necessary pace for the festival curtain raiser and two miles looks to be his trip at this stage. Bearing all this in mind, the 16/1 available for Trifolium looks a fair price and it would be difficult to dissuade anyone from taking it. However, all his best runs over hurdles so far have come on soft or heavy ground and the way he powered through it at Punchestown suggests he relishes the surface. His trainer stated after the race he would improve for better ground and if this was true then he would have every chance in March, but I have my doubts. What he achieved in winning by 9 lengths is also debatable. Simenon had won a very weak maiden at Cork previously and possibly wants further than two miles and Joxer, who looked to be Trifolium’s main rival before the race, made two terrible mistakes, when still going well, at the third and second last flight effectively ending his chances. I feel the race was not a strong one and Trifolium will have to improve again if he is to challenge at Cheltenham especially when you think that the only time he faced a top class rival he was beaten comfortably, albeit with excuses. These excuses mainly revolved around his inability to settle and while he was fine on Sunday it would still be a major worry for me. Even Davy Russell said after the race at Punchestown that he worried about his keen going nature for Cheltenham and his not sure the track will suit. My final concern would surround his owners Gigginstown House Stud. They already have Midnight Game (Willie Mullins) who looks a better candidate for the Supreme Novices and is shorter in the in the betting. Second guessing them is always difficult but he looks their number one and with worries over the track suiting Trifolium you cannot be sure he will even turn up at Cheltenham.