Triumph Hurdle Update: Rolling Star

Supreme Novice clues were thin on the ground last week with multiple abandonments and the lack of a trial on Cheltenham Trials Day. Alan King did mention the race as the spring target for his stylish jumpers’ bumper winner Fair Trade. He cruised through the race at Kempton and saw off the potentially high class hurdler Pearl Swan with considerable ease. Raymond Tooth’s six-year-old was more than useful on the flat having been placed in a Group 3, he was even seen as good enough to compete in the 2000 Guineas won by, the still underrated, Makfi. Despite this, designs on the Supreme appear far-fetched to me, Alan King contests that he will improve markedly for better ground, but so will a host of others going for the race who have shown significantly superior hurdling form so far. Fair Trade is not the most straightforward of horses either which would be a concern for Cheltenham. One more run is planned for him before the Festival and unless he blossoms into a different horse on the back of his all-weather confidence booster I cannot envisage him being anything other than a long shot in March, and a long shot he will deserve to be.
   
Fortunately, there were a host of Festival markers laid down over the weekend with the standout performance probably produced by Pont Alexandre at Leopardstown (Sunday). Yet it is back at the home of jump racing where I want to concentrate. In the first race at Cheltenham on Saturday I fully expected a genuine, strong Triumph Hurdle contender to emerge and emerge he did, but it was not the contender I or many others expected.

Irish Saint arrived in the care of Paul Nicholls on the back of an impressive victory in a Listed Hurdle in France. That was his only run before moving to England and Nicholls saw him almost immediately as a chasing prospect. His bullishness before Irish Saint’s debut in this country at Kempton contributed to his charge’s odds-on SP but the confidence was well placed as he ran out an exceptionally impressive winner. He jumped and travelled smoothly before quickening away like a classy hurdler should, leaving the decent yardstick, McVicar toiling in his wake. I was really taken with this display and when it came to Saturday I felt he would extend his winning streak, setting himself up for a tilt at the Triumph in the process.

I was not alone in that view either as he was backed in to odds-on favouritism once more. Sadly for his supporters Irish Saint met with defeat for the first time. There were no excuses, he was already proven on the ground, Irish Saint had just come up against a better horse and, in my view, the genuine Triumph Hurdle contender we had expected to see. Rolling Star was only a maiden on the flat after seven starts but he did manage to win his first start over hurdles in France and with Nicky Henderson he was evidently improving all the time as positive reports about his work surfaced in the run up to Saturday’s race. There was also sustained support for the Triumph, he was around 12/1 shortly before the race. A bold showing was anticipated but Irish Saint looked a particularly tough nut to crack on the back of his Kempton demolition job. Intriguingly, however, Timeform rated Rolling Star’s French form one pound superior to Irish Saint’s, this was an indication of what was to follow.

Irish Saint set off in front under Ruby Walsh, keen to dictate a reasonable pace believing he was on the best horse, with Rolling Star and Barry Geraghty sitting in third eager to track the favourite. They both travelled easily through the race and as Feb Thirtyfirst cracked Rolling Star took up second from the third last, with the rest struggling the race boiled down to a match between two bright juveniles. Despite both jockeys looking comfortable all the way to the last, there was just an air of confidence exuding from Barry Geraghty and concern from Ruby Walsh as they approached the final obstacle. Irish Saint is a brilliant jumper of hurdles and he cleared the last exuberantly, in contrast Rolling Star, who, not the natural his opponent is, was slow costing himself valuable momentum. Geraghty was not perturbed, gradually winding is mount back up to move alongside the flailing Ruby Walsh, only then did he ask for maximum effort. Rolling Star responded willingly, pulling away from Irish Saint in a manner suggesting there was more to give. ‘Winning cosily’ is an overused term when it comes to finishes but here it seemed appropriate for Rolling Star and Barry Geraghty. The most encouraging aspect for me, in terms of his Festival aspirations, is that without the clumsy fumble of the last I expect Nicky Henderson’s four-year-old would have breezed past Irish Saint. For that reason he may still be underestimated by many, if no longer the bookmakers who have him around 5/1 which neither generous nor mean, as he beat this exciting juvenile with solid form, a tall reputation, and a physique to match even more easily than the comfortable two-and-a-quarter lengths suggests. Adding ballast to the form is Roc D’Apsis, back in third, who finished an almost identical distance behind current joint favourite with Rolling Star, Far West, on his previous run also at Cheltenham. Unlike Far West I anticipate Rolling Star will take to better ground just as easily as the heavy he encountered on Saturday. Were conditions to remain similar in March there would be fierce competition between the pair but as a son of Poliglote, Far West thrives on the heavy going. He has not raced on quicker ground yet, therefore, it may harsh to draw such a conclusion but if the ground does dry up for the Triumph I suspect he will struggle more than most.

The only factor that has stopped me backing him thus far is the nature of the Triumph Hurdle build up. So often we see major protagonists not appearing before February, with the Adonis usually being the most interesting trial in that regard. It is arguably foolhardy to back something for the Triumph before the Adonis with the likes of Zarkandar and Soldatino (two of the last three Triumph winners) popping up there on their British debuts. However, despite Nicky Henderson suggesting he had a couple more juveniles to unleash, he did admit that Rolling Star was probably the best. He has not yet decided whether to run Rolling Star again before Cheltenham but whatever happens we should see progression from his first start in this country for his new trainer to the next. It is tough to be negative about Rolling Star’s chances in the Triumph, at least for me, but it is one of the races at the Festival with many unknowns and horses can suddenly improve dramatically, like Countrywide Flame. If we do get the usual Cheltenham ground in March then there will be some horses who have been unable to show their true colours through this ‘monsoon’ season and from an antepost perspective the best juvenile could still be lurking somewhere with a name most have not even heard of yet.

The Irish have generally struggled to win the Triumph Hurdle but this year they may have their best chance for a while in Diakali for Willie Mullins. He has treated his rivals on both starts so far with utter contempt, turning both races into processions. We should learn more about him as he steps up in grade and hopefully takes on the other top Irish Juveniles, including the likes of Our Conor. Given another dominant display from him I may have to dampen my enthusiasm for Rolling Star. Whether or not Diakali does give Far West and Rolling Star fans something to think about, this year’s renewal of the Triumph Hurdle is heading towards yet another Nicky Henderson versus Willie Mullins versus Paul Nicholls contest at the 2013 Cheltenham Festival.

Supreme Novices Update: Un Atout (Naas)

Much of what makes recognising the best novice hurdlers difficult is the necessity to differentiate between horses winning impressively against inferior opposition and horses being pushed hard to win higher quality races. This season we have Dodging Bullets and Jezki who have won strong races but with little in hand. Admittedly, Jezki did run away with a grade 1 last time but that was not the race it first appeared and I am referring here to his defeat of Champagne Fever and Zuzka etc. It is difficult to knock what they have achieved, both appearing to be at the level required to compete in a Supreme Novices. Yet, with their ventures into graded company we are able to gauge, far more easily, what they might be capable of. At this stage I find myself drawn to those who are still to hint at what level they could achieve, the likes of Puffin Billy, albeit he is still more likely to head for the Neptune, and, to a certain extent, My Tent Or Yours, now the jumping has come together it is hard to put a limit on his ability. On Saturday we arguably witnessed the best and most exciting example of this in Ireland. Despite the desperate weather claiming all the racing worth watching in Britain, Naas managed to survive and a novice many people had been yearning to see again, Un Atout, dismantled his field.

Willie Mullins' five-year-old son of Robin Des Champs was imperious, just as he had been on his previous two starts under rules. On his hurdling debut at Navan, Un Atout controlled the race from the front and came home untested from what I hope will turn out to be a reasonable field. The second (Fickle Fortune) and fourth (Some Article) are potentially very useful but neither has been given the opportunity to show it thus far. Davy Russell was unlikely to have the same opportunity to dictate the pace at Naas, however, as Un Atout came up against perennial front runner Rory O’Moore. There was a moment on Saturday when it seemed as if Rory O’Moore was unwilling to start, in which case Un Atout would have had to make his own running, but after some cajoling from, jockey, Andrew McNamara the race took shape as expected. Often Rory O’Moore can go very hard from the front and this may well have benefitted Davy Russell on Un Atout but in the energy sapping conditions this was not feasible.

Settled in behind the leader, Un Atout took a hold to begin with, as the pace was no more than a dawdle, but once they had jumped the second he relaxed, travelling well within himself. He moved up alongside Rory O’Moore at the third last and the race looked in safe keeping from then on, barring any mishaps. Mishaps were unlikely though as his jumping was nearly spot on, he was quick and nimble when in close to the hurdles, while he was able to stretch out when necessary as well, with the highlight of the whole round coming at the second last as he drew away from his ‘competition’.  It could not have been more comfortable for Un Atout and his rider, Un Atout just cantered all over this field and sauntered away, expending as little effort as is possible in a race over two miles on heavy ground. He was evidently in a different league, despite the second and third both winning novice hurdles previously, and he is yet to show any sign of inexperience despite only having raced three times. Everything he has done in his career suggests that he is a high class novice hurdler and despite lacking the form and substance of Jezki I would mark him down as Ireland’s best chance of winning the 2013 Supreme Novices' Hurdle.

This does not mean he deserves to be favourite for the race. On what he has actually achieved so far he probably shouldn’t be any shorter than 10/1. I can understand why he is so short as he is such an exciting prospect, who at the moment has limitless potential, and the confidence behind him from his top stable is more than encouraging. Unfortunately, there must be question marks over him, the first of which is what has he actually beaten? When one considers Jezki, for instance, he has beaten last season’s Champion Bumper winner in Champagne Fever, an ultra-impressive winner of a subsequent grade 3 hurdle in Zuzka, and numerous highly regarded novices including, Waaheb, Bright New Dawn, Ally Cascade, Minsk and Sizing Rio, all relatively easily. His jumping still leaves something to be desired but his form is almost unquestionable and it will be difficult to match in the in the next 50 days. Even My Tent Or Yours, who is still more style over substance, has beaten a subsequent grade 1 winner. Un Atout beat nothing of note in his bumper and on his first start over obstacles nothing in behind capable of showing decent form has done so yet. 

On Saturday Un Atout managed to put 19 lengths between him and Rory O’Moore, while on the bridle. Last time out, Jezki did something similar but put 58 lengths between himself and this front running son of Stowaway. It is very easy to read too much into this, however, as heavy ground form in Ireland can be unreliable while at the same time I am sure Rory O’Moore ran massively below form behind Jezki as he was harried for the lead and, in fact, had to concede it to Sizing Rio which was entirely unsuitable. It is sensible to judge Rory O’Moore on his run behind Un Atout, it is also sensible not to judge the respective merits of Un Atout and Jezki on the performances of this one horse. Like many of the current antepost favourites for the Cheltenham Festival (including Sprinter Sacre, Simonsig, Dynaste and Bobs Worth) it is difficult to be negative about Jezki but he does not leave me with the same impression that Un Atout does despite having achieved more, there is just the sense that Un Atout could be something special, hopefully on his next start, possibly in the Deloitte, we will find out whether or not this assertion is misguided.

If Un Atout does run next in the Deloitte Novice Hurdle he will run over further than two miles for the first time. It is only two furlongs further and should make little difference to him but it does point to another question over Un Atout, does he need further than two miles? Breeding suggests this is likely and after his seasonal debut at Navan, Willie Mullins and Davy Russell both indicated he was a stayer in the making. However, the prevalence of staying novice hurdlers trained by Willie Mullins and owned by, Un Atout’s owners, Gigginstown House Stud has led to Un Atout being their Supreme Novices horse. It is possible that without any other novices to place he would be Neptune bound but from what I have seen Un Atout will be ideally suited to two miles round Cheltenham anyway. He shows so much class in his races that a faster pace could improve him, while the frenetic gallop which he will face in March can bring his apparent stamina into play. Willie Mullins is now confident that he has the necessary gears to stick to two miles and the way Un Atout has pulled away from his rivals so far makes it difficult to argue otherwise.

Finally, this relation of Sir Des Champs has been advertising his Supreme credentials in very soft ground in Ireland and there has to be a question mark over whether these are the conditions he needs to perform at his best. Un Atout clearly handles testing going well but that would not put me off for Cheltenham. He doesn’t possess the action of horse that needs it deep and I would be far happier to suggest that he will, if anything, improve for the better ground as I have mentioned before.

With Jezki heading straight to Cheltenham his position at the head of the betting for the Festival’s curtain raiser may be safe for the time being but I suspect, if My Tent Or Yours hasn’t got there first by winning the Betfair Hurdle, after Un Atout’s next foray onto the track it will be under serious threat.

Supreme Novices Update: My Tent Or Yours (Huntingdon)

Freezing temperatures and snow are two forecasts which bring dread to those within racing. Sadly, that is what we face and informative cards at Newbury, Wincanton and Taunton are all under threat this week whilst the highest profile meetings on Saturday, at Ascot and Haydock, are also in danger with the loss of the Supreme Novices’ Trial hurdle a real possibility. The Grade 1 Victor Chandler Chase may be a more pressing issue but that will, no doubt, be rearranged, probably on Cheltenham Trials day, whereas the Supreme trial will just be lost and it is events such as these which interest me most in the build up to the Festival. I hope I am being unnecessarily pessimistic and the frost covers will do their job but I find it hard to believe that racing will be unaffected. Fortunately, we did nearly manage a full, if slightly uninspiring, programme this weekend (only Fakenham failed to beat the weather) and the highlight, in terms of the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle build up, came on Friday at Huntingdon.

My Tent Or Yours has been highly touted ever since his bumper debut and he looked a potential Supreme Novice even before his hurdling exploits. The pace and class he exhibited in bumpers, along with his grade 1 form marked him out as strong candidate, then after his hurdling debut, where he defeated subsequent grade 1 winning hurdler Taquin Du Seuil he was rightly among the favourites for Cheltenham’s curtain raiser. His next run at Newbury could be described, harshly in my view, as a blip but there were positives to be garnered from it, especially the improvement in his jumping, and ensuing events have demonstrated that this run was merely a means to an end. In order to qualify for the valuable Betfair Handicap Hurdle, at Newbury in February, My Tent Or Yours had to have run three times over hurdles prior to January 13th. It was clear before the race at Newbury that Henderson would have preferred not to run him, and he would probably have pulled him out on that ground had there not been this ‘plan’ but in order to get a third run in, he had to run that day. As a result, McCoy was hardly aggressive once he knew the winner was not for catching, he had future targets in mind, the most imminent being his third run which was to come at Huntingdon just thirteen days later. This was no ‘gimme’, with a pair of high class bumper performers, namely Population and Royal Guardsman, up against him, as well as God’s Own, an impressive winning debutant over hurdles. Population and Royal Guardsman had been disappointing on their hurdling debuts for different reasons but more was expected on Friday, however neither of them, nor any of his other rivals, were capable of giving meaningful opposition to AP McCoy’s mount.

My Tent Or Yours, as was the case on his two previous starts this season, was consciously held up in rear by McCoy. Under restraint, he was keen again and he pulled his way into midfield almost immediately. Nicky Henderson said after the race that he is concerned about his charge not using his energy in the right way and again here he travelled noticeably strongly but unlike Newbury, McCoy let My Tent Or Yours take him forward. He was eventually taken to the front on the approach to three out and from then on the race looked in safe keeping.

Royal Guardsman was again bitterly disappointing here, with the change of trainer seemingly doing him no favours. It could be that they are struggling to get him fit and he needed his first two runs of the season, in which case it is possible to give him one more chance. I hope he can get back to his bumper form as he treated two high class rivals, Atlantic Roller and Supreme second favourite River Maigue, with contempt at Ascot last season. He should really be a novice hurdler worth following. As should Population, who has recovered from whatever ailed him at Cheltenham and he put in a much more encouraging performance this weekend. We should see improvement from him on better ground as, like My Tent Or Yours, he showed plenty of pace in bumpers.

This was a more than reasonable novices' hurdle and connections of My Tent Or Yours can only take positives from it. In comparison to his hurdling debut, where his jumping was sloppy, he hurdled quickly and barely touched a flight. The only jump one could possibly question was at the final hurdle but he was being eased up almost as soon as he crossed the second last, therefore running down that one obstacle was completely excusable. This performance put him back on track for the Supreme, a track I doubt he was ever off, and nothing this side of the Irish Sea likely to head for the Supreme has left such a striking impression. I would be surprised if there were many faster national hunt horses in training and assuming the ground isn’t heavy, as it was on his last unsuccessful trip to Newbury, I can’t see anything in the entries for the Betfair Hurdle being able to live with him. He is deservedly favourite for that, as I type, and his price for the Supreme can only contract with a strong showing there. My Tent Or Yours still appears to be underestimated by a number of firms with double figure prices widely available.

The one concern around him, which has recently arisen, is the high profile acquisition of Supreme Novices’ favourite, Jezki, by JP McManus. Some have suggested this is a sign that he does not fancy what he already has for the Supreme and or that it increases the likelihood of My Tent Or Yours missing the race, in favour of a tilt at the Neptune or Aintree. I take the view that McManus enjoys having a clutch of top class horses, he doesn’t seem to mind running more than one in the best races, and he already has experience of Jezki’s family with the likes of Jered and Jenari proving successful purchases. It could be described as a no-brainer for a man in his position. I also struggle to believe that My Tent Or Yours will stay the Neptune trip, or at least be anywhere near as good over it. Hence, that option is defunct, while McManus has used the Betfair Hurdle as a stepping stone to the Supreme before, with both Get Me Out Of Here and Darlan going on to fill the runners-up berth at Cheltenham, as such there should be no issue with repeating such a feat, just the hope of going one better in March. Nicky Henderson has been convinced since the start of the season that this son of Desert Prince is his best novice hurdle prospect, thus it will take some serious persuasion for him not to run this Supreme Novices’ Hurdle aspirant at Cheltenham.

Supreme Novices Update: Tolworth Hurdle review

Underestimation is something I am far less guilty of than overestimation. I can easily get too excited about a horse that impresses, go overboard with a taking performance, but it is more unusual for me to be overly negative about a horse with major Cheltenham Festival pretensions. Last season, while he was a solid horse with strong bumper form and a sequence of relatively impressive wins over hurdles, I couldn’t believe Cinders And Ashes would be good enough to win the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle. There was no reason to think he was incapable of making the frame, I just assumed, from what I had seen, that there would be a couple of classier candidates able to see him off up the Cheltenham hill. This season I appear to be in a similar situation with Melodic Rendezvous as, so far, he has done little to put one off expecting a big show in March, but I can’t see him having the pace or the class to take the main prize, whether that be the Supreme or the Neptune.

On Saturday, Melodic Rendezvous took the step up to grade 1 company over hurdles in his stride, running out a convincing winner of the Tolworth Hurdle. His grade 1 bumper form augured well but his starting price and position in the market (only third favourite) suggested that many, including myself, were expecting a different outcome. When discussing Melodic Rendezvous’ last race I had been very positive about runner up, Royal Boy. With the extra experience from that first run over hurdles behind him I had expected the form to be reversed with Jeremy Scott’s charge, and that seemed to be the general consensus seeing as Royal Boy started the 5/2 favourite. However, Melodic Rendezvous never looked in much danger of defeat on Saturday, with Royal Boy a well beaten third. Receiving a nice lead from Nicky Henderson’s six-year-old, Melodic Rendezvous settled comfortably in about fourth for most of the journey. His jumping was slick and economical, there was no semblance of an error and this is clearly a strength especially when one compares his jumping to those around him in the Supreme market. As Royal Boy weakened rapidly, he picked up well between the final two obstacles and from the half furlong pole Nick Schofield asked him to pull away from Pendra and the Where Or When gelding responded in good style. There is much to like about Melodic Rendezvous, he is tough, has a willing attitude, he clearly stays well and it is hard to argue that he wasn’t comfortably the best horse at Sandown. The question is whether that is hugely significant in terms of the Supreme Novices hurdle.

In the run up to Saturday’s race, the Tolworth looked a reasonably strong renewal and if Court Minstrel and Royal Boy had, in my view, ran anywhere near their previous levels of form then it would be hard to knock such a performance but I am quite convinced they did not. Melodic Rendezvous’ previous runs were not strong enough in form terms to suggest he was a Cheltenham Festival winner in waiting, particularly his debut run over hurdles where he finished behind Mr Mole. He is definitely improving, some would say rapidly, but even having won this grade 1 he is still yet to show me enough to suggest he is the Cheltenham candidate that his lofty antepost market positions suggest.

In second at Sandown was Pendra, admittedly four-and-a-half-lengths away, who has not shown enough to mark him out as a serious grade 1 contender. Since he ran away with his bumper Charlie Longsdon’s five-year-old has advertised his novice hurdle credentials with two wins from two starts, both at Plumpton, but his run prior to the Tolworth Hurdle was a three-and-three-quarter-lengths defeat of Workbench, trained by Paul Nicholls. Pendra took his time in putting that race to bed and I am sure Nicholls would have Workbench way down his novice hurdle pecking order.

Pendra already looks the sort who will improve for further, having attempted to make the running on Saturday in order to make use of his apparent stamina, and his ideal trip will surely prove to be nearer three miles than two. He was not simply brushed aside by Melodic Rendezvous either as, aided by Noel Fehily’s urgings, Pendra battled for much of the run in, whereas one would expect a serious candidate for Cheltenham to dismiss this future chaser with more authority than the winner did. It is fair to say the ground was extremely testing at Sandown and that would have contributed to Pendra’s performance while hampering the efforts of a classier Melodic Rendezvous. The emphasis became far more on stamina and that points to a step up in trip for Melodic Rendezvous but his impressive trainer, Jeremy Scott, is aiming more towards the Supreme having proved effective not only over two miles, but also at Cheltenham.

If Melodic Rendezvous does improve for the better ground one assumes he will face in March, as his trainer and jockey have stated on numerous occasions, then it is possible that we are a distance away from seeing his true ability. His record suggests that he handles testing ground, in fact he may well thrive on it having run so well behind Champagne Fever at Punchestown on, near enough, waterlogged ground. In two grade ones on heavy ground he has finished second and first while his only defeat over hurdles to date was on good-to-soft ground. He might just be the horse to look to in a heavy ground Supreme, these are the only conditions in which I could entertain backing him, but this would also encourage some of those contemplating the Neptune to drop down in trip, providing Melodic Rendezvous with an even tougher test. As nice as it is to see a different trainer competing with the National Hunt juggernauts, I am yet to see the zip and class necessary to get me excited about his Cheltenham prospects but then I felt exactly the same way about Cinders And Ashes last season.

For many the disappointment of Saturday’s race was Poet. There was a widely held belief that Poet was ultra impressive on his hurdling debut and that his flat class would inevitably result in him becoming a high class hurdler. I thought he was all out at Newbury to defeat, the subsequently beaten, Veloce and there was this myth about his ‘brilliant’ jumping, which looked no more than adequate to me. Poet ran as well as I expected he would on Saturday and, while this was an admirably ambitious target, if he is to make a mark over hurdles it will have to be at a much lower level.

The disappointment of the race for me in the Tolworth was the aforementioned favourite, Royal Boy. Last time, at Cheltenham, he was just trapped in behind the rest of the field just as the pace quickened. Once he found his passage up the rail Royal Boy was running down Melodic Rendezvous all the way to the line. It looked as if inexperience and a slight lack of pace cost him. A grade 1 on his second start under rules was always going to be a tall order but he had looked so promising at Cheltenham it was hoped, and in my case expected, that he would reverse the placings with Melodic Rendezvous. Unfortunately for his supporters, the exuberant jumping display was nowhere to be found. Conscious that he had been found wanting for pace at the death last time, Geraghty (on board Royal Boy) set out to be handy, if not make the running, in order to ensure that he was in the ideal position were it to turn into a sprint, having been left behind on debut. For a horse in need of the experience this tactic plainly backfired as he was still rather green while his jumping was abominable, losing ground at nearly every hurdle before he capitulated after second last. He still finished third, gaining invaluable experience, and in future with different tactics employed, preferably over further, he could still be a potent force in novice hurdles.

The final word goes to Court Minstrel who had the best form coming into Saturday’s race, having been impressive on his first start at Cheltenham and unlucky on his second behind Dodging Bullets and River Maigue. There were concerns expressed by his trainer, Evan Williams, that he may not handle the heavy ground and these concerns were borne out. He again travelled strongly through the race and came with a menacing run, along with the winner, on the approach to the second last but after being hemmed in for a few strides, his effort petered out tamely. A tired leap at the last nearly saw him come down, giving away third spot in the process. He is still a very useful novice hurdler, if not significantly better, and it would be folly to write him off just yet. His ideal conditions are relatively quick ground and a big field, until we see him face those he will be difficult to judge. Evan Williams seems to be favouring a go at a festival handicap in March and who could blame him? These defeats in unsuitable conditions can only land him on a very favourable mark.