During an exceptional weekend of sport one performance may have gone under the radar. Arsenal’s super seven against Blackburn, Manchester United’s comeback at Stamford Bridge, the titanic tussle between Wales and Ireland in the Six Nations, the Giants’ victory in the Super Bowl and even the demolition of Big Zeb by Sizing Europe all overshadowed Trifolium’s win at Punchestown which has put him right into the Supreme Novices picture. Although with the absence of jump racing in Britain it’s possible many will have been focussed on the Irish racing more than ever.
Trifolium is a more experienced hurdler than most of his likely Supreme rivals. He has already run six times but importantly he seems to have a progressive profile. On his first two starts in Ireland he ran extremely promising races and was placed on both occasions. Each time he was keen and finished relatively weakly. Accounting for this, his connections decided on a set of cheek pieces and a change in tactics on his next start at Cork where he was allowed to get on with it. Making all, he never saw another rival and in the end pulled, an eye-catching, 24 lengths clear. This change in tactics looked the way to go and next time out he set off in front again. Once more he won comfortably, never off the bridle, beating handicapper Plan A by just over 8 lengths. Trifolium appeared to cope well with the small field on his first start out of novice company so his trainer targeted a similar type of race at Navan for his next run. This time he faced a far sterner test up against one of last season’s top novices So Young.
Trained by the phenomenon that is Willie Mullins, So Young has been talked up as a possible challenger to Big Buck’s over 3 miles this season but on this occasion he stuck to two miles on testing ground. With such a formidable opponent it was always going to be tough and So Young was clearly expected to win as he was sent off at 1/3. He duly did and won well, with Trifolium 7½ lengths behind. On bare form this was another promising run but, in reality it was somewhat disappointing. Intriguingly, the evidently successful front-running tactics weren't employed this time on Trifolium, thereby handing the initiative to the masterful Ruby Walsh. It is possible they were worried about the son of Godneyev’s tendency to be keen and they were hoping to teach him to settle with a view to the festival where it is extremely difficult to win from the front. However, yet again Trifolium took a very keen hold and for the first half of the race Charles Byrne’s charge was fighting with jockey Davy Russell, but surprisingly between the third and second last he looked to be travelling better than So Young. For a second an upset was on the cards, but his early exertions had cost him as Trifolium had nothing more to give when So Young quickened away after the two out. This was to some extent understandable given the strong gallop set by Ruby Walsh on the soft-heavy ground. In spite of this his propensity to pull was alarming for a Cheltenham Festival aspirant and Charles Byrnes was keen himself to give the 5 year old one more run for experience.
At Punchestown on Sunday they again decided to take a lead but this time he settled noticeably better and travelled smoothly throughout before an ultra impressive turn of foot approaching the home bend put the race to bed, only having to ridden out hands and heels to finish, a more than, convincing 9 lengths clear of another Mullins trained adversary Simenon. This was back in novice company and he was strongly fancied to win, sent off a 7/4 favourite, but nonetheless it was a tremendous display.
This performance would suggest he has a huge chance in the Supreme Novices Hurdle in March. Ever since the cheek pieces were applied his jumping has been assured and it was particularly good on Sunday. He also displayed the necessary pace for the festival curtain raiser and two miles looks to be his trip at this stage. Bearing all this in mind, the 16/1 available for Trifolium looks a fair price and it would be difficult to dissuade anyone from taking it. However, all his best runs over hurdles so far have come on soft or heavy ground and the way he powered through it at Punchestown suggests he relishes the surface. His trainer stated after the race he would improve for better ground and if this was true then he would have every chance in March, but I have my doubts. What he achieved in winning by 9 lengths is also debatable. Simenon had won a very weak maiden at Cork previously and possibly wants further than two miles and Joxer, who looked to be Trifolium’s main rival before the race, made two terrible mistakes, when still going well, at the third and second last flight effectively ending his chances. I feel the race was not a strong one and Trifolium will have to improve again if he is to challenge at Cheltenham especially when you think that the only time he faced a top class rival he was beaten comfortably, albeit with excuses. These excuses mainly revolved around his inability to settle and while he was fine on Sunday it would still be a major worry for me. Even Davy Russell said after the race at Punchestown that he worried about his keen going nature for Cheltenham and his not sure the track will suit. My final concern would surround his owners Gigginstown House Stud. They already have Midnight Game (Willie Mullins) who looks a better candidate for the Supreme Novices and is shorter in the in the betting. Second guessing them is always difficult but he looks their number one and with worries over the track suiting Trifolium you cannot be sure he will even turn up at Cheltenham.
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