Supreme Novices Update: Christmas (Jezki, Puffin Billy and My Tent Or Yours)

The densely packed festive period offered up its usual share of brilliant racing. Kempton played its part but Leopardstown stood out with quality on show day after day with the highlight, undoubtedly, being the Lexus Chase where Tidal Bay pulled the rug from under the feet of the crème de la crème of Ireland’s staying chasers. The best Irish novice hurdlers were left to their own devices in the Grade 1 Future Champions Novice Hurdle and Jezki, who already had the strongest novice form available, came out on top in decisive fashion.

Jezki’s defeat of last season’s premier bumper horse, Champagne Fever, in the Royal Bond marked him out as the best two mile novice hurdler around. Despite jumping left handed on occasion he displayed his considerable ability and, as I mentioned in the Royal Bond piece, bookmakers were generous with their antepost prices following the race. He is now around the price he should have been after beating Champagne Fever and Zuzka, who boosted the form with a runaway victory at Leopardstown on Saturday. She clearly appreciated the step up in trip, an appreciation likely to be shared by her aforementioned stablemate.

Jezki came up against a deep field last week, with the well regarded trio of Waaheb, Sizing Rio and Bright New Dawn his main dangers. Usual partner Barry Geraghty was over at Kempton riding the great Simonsig so Robbie Power took over and with Henderson likely to offer Geraghty a choice of rides, I expect Power will take the mount in March. Jezki settled nicely off the strong pace, set by perennial front runner Sizing Rio, but once again his jumping lacked fluency through the race. In fairness, he only really lost ground at the fifth last, which he ploughed through, and it could just be his quick style is more effective than it is pleasing to the eye. Better ground may see an improvement in that department and connections have been adamant that a sounder surface is what he needs but it is worth bearing in mind. Through Thursday’s race he was always in the best position, able to track the leaders, and it was evident how well he was travelling. Power even took a pull on the home turn as he cantered all over the field, before pulling away easily on approach to the last, eventually scoring by six lengths from an unlucky Waaheb. Jessica Harrington must be thrilled with her charge and he is a worthy Supreme favourite at this stage, only something special could depose him between now and March.

As mentioned above, Waaheb was to a certain extent unlucky. It is hard to argue that he would have won the race, seeing as Jezki had any amount to spare, but there is no doubt he would have been closer without the glaring error two out. He was moving up nicely alongside the winner, while perhaps not travelling as strongly, and McCoy was keen to find a gain momentum over the hurdle but Waaheb stuttered losing the pair at least three lengths, costing them any chance of fighting out the finish with the winner. McCoy wasn’t hard on Waaheb from then on, with his innate ability allowing him to take second place comfortably from Bright New Dawn. His trainer Dermot Weld had been concerned that inexperience would find him out in this grade and, despite running well in second, it did. There must be significant improvement to come, particularly on better ground and perhaps not on such a stiff track. While it is hard to see him reversing form with Jezki this season, even with a three pound pull in the weights, pushing him out to 20/1 for the Supreme is an overreaction.

The rest of the important Supreme Novices related action came from England with a number of noteworthy performances. The first of which came from Puffin Billy at Ascot (21/12/2012), in the Grade 2 Kennel Gate Novices hurdle. Puffin Billy was immense in his two bumpers, especially under a penalty at Ascot where he cruised to victory at Ascot by nine lengths. His trainer had understandably been talking him up for a while and much was expected on his hurdling debut at Newbury. With the prevailing conditions at the moment it is a plus that Puffin Billy is able to handle, even thrive in, testing ground and this is what he did at Newbury, and even more so at Ascot. Leighton Aspell tried to settle Puffin Billy in rear of the large field at Newbury, but the pace was slow to non-existent hence he was far too keen, pulling violently for his head, eventually taking his rider to the front at the first. Aspell managed to settle him down in around third place after that, often having to be reined back at the hurdles as his jumping continuously carried him forward. On the home turn Puffin Billy inevitably tanked his way to the front, from which point he was never headed, drawing away stylishly from an unconsidered outsider and the very promising Sound Investment. Oliver Sherwood’s son of Heron Island made one slight error in the back straight and he got in close to the last once his rider let him down but otherwise his hurdling was fluent. The same could not be said once upped in class at Ascot but the end result was just as impressive, if not more so.

With Leighton Aspell serving his ban Geraghty took over the ride on Puffin Billy, he had ridden him previously on his last visit to Ascot in the bumper. There were only four runners in this grade 2 and Puffin Billy was the odds on favourite. He was expected to win easily, and with market rival Meganisi disappointing it would have been surprising had he not. Despite this, one could not fail to be taken with the way he never came off the bridle, Geraghty hardly flinched. This time on heavy ground (Newbury was only soft), Puffin Billy again moved sweetly, he was nothing like as keen as at Newbury, allowing Geraghty time to track the other runners and make his move when necessary. In last of four for most of the trip, Puffin Billy appeared as if he wasn’t concentrating at most of his hurdles. Apart from the second flight, he got in close to each of the first six with his worst leap coming at the sixth. This may have focussed his mind as he jumped the last three well, displaying an aptitude for jumping. It is also possible that by pulling him out from last place, Geraghty allowed him a better sight of his hurdles. I would not be overly concerned with his hurdling, as the technique seems to be there and he is another powerful sort who should improve with a faster pace. In a soft or heavy ground Supreme he would be formidable but those are the only scenarios in which we could see Puffin Billy in the festival’s opening race as Oliver Sherwood has already pointed to a possible step up in trip for his next start in a race on Cheltenham Trials day. He may prefer to stick to two miles at Haydock but I see no reason why he won’t stay the extra distance, in which case I expect him to win at the end of January forcing connections down the Neptune path. Ground will apparently dictate his festival target, yet on trials day it will still be soft, at least, therefore, if he takes up his Cheltenham engagement, only a mishap of some sort looks likely to prevent his target being over 2m5f.

Boxing Day saw Long Run nearly fluff his lines and last season’s Supreme runner-up Darlan rout his opposition, sending himself to the head of the Champion Hurdle market. These rightly took the headlines but the day opened with dominant display from River Maigue. His previous race clearly did not suit him and for a hurdling debut it was extremely encouraging. In discussing it here at the time I felt that he was likely to prove superior to his conqueror, Dodging Bullets, despite receiving seven pounds and I still stand by that, with this run going some way to proving that. Dodging Bullets ran respectably in third behind Darlan in the Grade 1 Christmas Hurdle on the same day but that was a race ostensibly of last season’s two mile novices, a crop that I felt were below average. He does not look like a Supreme Novices winner to me and, despite River Maigue boosting his form so comprehensively, the race at Cheltenham was won by his jockey and once the festival arrives I suspect he will lack the class to compete.

River Maigue, on the other hand, showed tremendous class in bumpers and proved he was high class at Kempton by defeating last season’s Champion Bumper second, New Year’s Eve by seven lengths, despite getting hampered exiting the final bend. Jumping exuberantly throughout, he was nimble when he got in close and jumped boldly at other times. River Maigue showed what scope he has, a likely Arkle/Jewson contender next season, and he should improve again on his next start. I have been a fan of this horse since I saw him in the paddock at Ascot before his bumper debut and the Supreme Novices looks on his agenda. I am sure he will show up well, particularly with his crisp jumping, but there is just something about the way he travels and finishes his races that suggests to me he will be even better over further. While we are unlikely to see that theory tested at Cheltenham I imagine he will follow in the footsteps of Spirit Son, also owned by Michael Buckley, who ran a brilliant race to finish second in the Supreme before bolting up over four furlongs further at Aintree. River Maigue handled the heavy ground at Kempton with aplomb so a very soft festival would benefit him with the race shaping up to be full of speed balls hoping for better ground. A normal festival picture would leave him just lacking in the pace department I fear, but I would expect him to be flying home at the death, quite possibly into a place. Either way the 14/1 available looks about right, with the win on Boxing Day looking solid form.

As usual this season, Nicky Henderson is awash with novice hurdle talent and the best of those, according to him, at the start of the season was My Tent Or Yours. On his first start over hurdles he impressively dealt with the promising, Jonjo O’Neill trained, French recruit Taquin Du Seuil despite jumping sloppily. On Taquin Du Seuil’s next start he picked up a grade 2 at Sandown on the bridle. This eye-catching form boost caused My Tent Or Yours’ price for the Supreme to contract significantly, halving to 10/1 in many places. This seemed a bit hasty until Taquin Du Seuil followed up the grade 2 with a convincing grade 1 victory in The Challow novices’ hurdle on Saturday at Newbury. On the same card My Tent Or Yours was ready to make his second appearance over hurdles despite the heavy ground being a huge concern for connections. Sent off at 4/11 most people expected another convincing success for McCoy (he rode Taquin Du Seuil as well earlier in the day). Most people probably didn’t include the trainer, unfortunately for his supporters, as his other runner in the race revelled in the mud and collected the prize in decisive fashion. Chatterbox had won his only bumper narrowly, but being a son of Poliglote he was expected to take to conditions and he did so in the manner of a smart horse. Henderson does not see him as a Cheltenham horse therefore a Supreme bid is obviously out of the question but a change of heart, to which Mr Henderson is occasionally susceptible, and soft ground could bring him right into the equation if this form is taken literally.

However, taking this form literally would be dangerous as My Tent Or Yours failed to show his true ability. He was keen at Ascot and had been keen in all his previous races, consequently McCoy tried to get him settled by holding him up off the pace, some distance behind the leaders. Bar one slight blemish at the third, My Tent Or Yours jumped accurately, showing important progress had been made in that department, and, as he moved easily through the race, his rider seemed happy turning into the straight as it looked only a matter of time before he picked off those ahead. McCoy sat still all the way up the straight until the last, while Geraghty had been pushing his mount along for a while. On approach to the last My Tent Or Yours steadied whereas Chatterbox flew it and came away running. The race was as good as over then, with an insurmountable gap for My Tent Or Yours to make up. The idea had clearly been to win as snugly as possible if at all on My Tent Or Yours in order to avoid a hard race in the conditions. He could not quite come out on top with such a talented rival enjoying the ground but I haven’t lost any faith in this son of Desert Prince as the major concern with his last performance was his jumping, which was solid here, and he was less keen showing he is maturing and learning with experience. If he can find better ground, even soft should be fine for him, then he should show his true colours. I expect he will be ridden with slightly less restraint from now on as in both his starts this season he has not shown the instant acceleration which seemed likely. My Tent Or Yours might not be the most straightforward ride but he is certainly talented and I fancy next time we will see another performance to justify his position near the head of the Supreme Market, a position he lost this weekend.

Happy New Year!

Supreme Novices Update: Melodic Rendezvous, Pont Alexandre and Don Cossack

Last week felt somewhat light on potential Supreme Novice hurdlers, with, probably, the most informative race in that sphere coming at Cheltenham on Friday. Village Vic was made favourite primarily on the back of his useful looking second behind The New One at Cheltenham’s Showcase meeting in October and on the assumption that a drop back in trip in bad ground would see improvement from him. Unfortunately for connections, just like when behind Coneygree at Cheltenham’s Open meeting in November, Village Vic was a no show leaving those behind him in the market to fight it out.

On bumper form alone Melodic Rendezvous deserved to be favourite, following a saunter to victory round Chepstow he finished a good, but distant, second to Champagne Fever in Punchestown’s Champion Bumper, crucially, on heavy ground. It was also heavy ground at Cheltenham and there were doubts about most of his opponents in such testing conditions, yet it was still significantly less testing than Melodic Rendezvous had faced at Punchestown. It was strange then that his trainer, Jeremy Scott, made public his concerns over the ground and, although it could be put down to most trainers’ natural cautiousness, that must have contributed to him starting as big as 4/1, that, along with his previous start over hurdles at Exeter. There, he was seemingly beaten by a highly useful prospect in Mr Mole, but he was well beaten next time leaving some doubt over the form, despite the third winning on his next start. At Exeter it was over the same trip as at Cheltenham (2m1f) and he appeared to lack the pace of the winner there, suggesting a step up in trip may benefit him. After his win on Friday connections were of a similar mind, and while he did show pace at the weekend the gruelling conditions will have aided him as it brought out his stamina which, once the ground dries up, will more likely than not be used over trips in excess of two miles, with the expected Festival target at this stage being the Neptune. Were it to be soft in March Jeremy Scott and connections may change their minds but, while it is presumptive to judge the race at this stage, Friday’s contest does not look strong enough to suggest that Melodic Rendezvous deserves to be strongly considered as a major player for the Cheltenham Festival curtain raiser.

It may be harsh to take dim view of the race at this stage but the pace was muddling, with most of the field in relatively close proximity crossing the line. Melodic Rendezvous was quite impressive in the way he moved around and upsides those who had briefly denied him a clear run on approach to the last thus he certainly isn’t without considerable speed, but having been beaten for pace at Exeter it is hard to believe that the Cheltenham race was especially strong. Nick Schofield rode Melodic Rendezvous well on Friday, knowing he had a horse with enough class and experience the jockey brought his horse into the desired position when it necessitated, unlike the eye-catcher of the race, who chased him home in second, ROYAL BOY.

Nicky Henderson’s five-year-old was an easy winner of his point-to-point and joined the star trainer some time ago but a setback forced him out for the whole of last season. Friday was his hurdling debut after a significant layoff, and while he has everything in the looks department it was difficult to know what to expect from this son of Lavirco. After a couple of stuttering leaps he really took to hurdling, attacking the flights with precision, he was quick through the air and he demonstrated just what scope he has, pointing to his real future over the larger obstacles. He travelled strongly through the race but as Barry Geraghty took Royal Boy wide round the home turn, in order to find his favoured stands rail, he was slightly outpaced with a wall of horses in front of him and the Nigel Twiston-Davies runner, Imperial Leader, slowing down on the rail blocking his path through. Once the gap appeared after the last Geraghty went after Royal Boy and he picked up quickly, storming home but never looking like reaching the winner who was already clear, Melodic Rendezvous’ extra experience told.

Royal Boy is an exciting prospect on that evidence and for a winning pointer, much like River Maigue at Cheltenham’s November meeting, the slow pace and sprint up the hill would not have played to his strengths. It is possible that he will be seen to better effect over further but I felt he showed that he had enough toe through the race to suggest that a truly run two miles could suit him, once he gains more experience it could be dangerous to write him off in stronger races over that trip. Despite the winner being well thought of, for whom a fruitful hurdling campaign was expected, the horse to take from the race must be Nicky Henderson’s charge.

Back in third on Friday was Eduard, who having given six pounds to the front two ran a solid race however I am not convinced he ran to his best and there is more to come, possibly up in trip and on better ground. The other main protagonist, who was expected to run well, was Alan King’s flashy chestnut, Valdez, but sadly he was disappointing like Village Vic. Valdez seemed to travel well for a long way but was clearly running too free on that ground and he almost certainly failed to handle the testing conditions. While he may not have been up to this class in any case, Valdez has valuable races in him and Alan King should get back on track without too much difficulty.  

NAVAN

This blog has become almost exclusively about those horses and races that could have an impact on the Supreme Novices Hurdle but I feel it would be remiss of me not to mention the Navan Novice Hurdle (G1) on Sunday, a race likely to have far more impact on novice hurdles over three miles than two.

The race beforehand was all about Gordon Elliott’s star horse, Don Cossack. Very exciting in bumpers, this giant son of Sholokhov won nicely on hurdling debut, with the odd jumping blemish, and was expected to prove unbeatable over the longer trip with that experience behind him. However, he was comprehensively beaten by Pont Alexandre, an expensive French recruit for Rich Ricci and Willie Mullins, even before he, literally, fell in a hole after the last.

With Ruby Walsh, evidently full of confidence, on board Pont Alexandre set off in front and was never headed. He was brisk over his hurdles nearly throughout, with only a tendency to jump slightly right worth noting, though that is only a very minor concern. This was an impressive performance from a four-year-old in a Grade 1 on only his second hurdling start and first in Ireland. The most striking part of this display was the manner in which he drew away from the hyped-up Gigginstown gelding between two out and the last. Victory was sealed when he cleared the final flight and as Mullins said afterwards ‘he could still be anything.’ There is a chance he needs very soft ground, with him apparently only impressing at home once the ground became heavy but I wouldn’t get too caught up in that and while he should be fully effective in a race like the Neptune, at this moment in time, that looks like the novice event of the Festival. Pont Alexandre ran like a real stayer on Sunday and, despite Coneygree winning with something to spare again at Cheltenham on Saturday, the Albert Bartlett might be his for the taking. 

Don Cossack, known as “The Don” at home, disappointed. He is a big unit who has his own jumping technique, sadly for his supporters that technique is less than desirable and it wouldn’t be harsh to describe his as clumsy. It is too early to write him off, the esteem in which he’s held by his trainer is enough to justify giving him a few more chances, as was the imperious nature of his last three bumper runs. He still has untapped potential over hurdles but unless his jumping improves dramatically, Cheltenham aspirations will have to be put on hold for at least this season. Connections of Don Cossack have been keen to emphasise that they want to tread carefully with him as chasing will be his forte. That will be something to look forward to, but as the jumps season revolves around Cheltenham he could have a major problem when it comes to March, either over hurdles or fences, and that is a need for soft ground. I would be surprised if he acts on anything quicker, and even more surprised if his connections risked him on it. 

Supreme Novices Update: Un Atout

Arguably, the horse to take from this weekend with the Supreme in mind didn’t even run. The form of My Tent Or Yours’ commanding win at Ascot was comprehensively boosted by Taquin Du Seuil on Friday when he took the Grade 2 novices’ hurdle at Sandown with consummate ease. The price of My Tent Or Yours for the Supreme collapsed after the event and considering how poorly he jumped against Taquin Du Seuil, one could be forgiven for holding sky high expectations for Nicky Henderson’s charge once he gets his act together. Taquin Du Seuil won on Friday over two-and-a-half miles, he appreciated the soft ground and must be thought of more as a Neptune Investment Management Novices' Hurdle horse. His trainer, Jonjo O’Neil, was not ruling the Supreme out, however, and he may have a difficult decision to make come March.

Another trainer likely to have some tough decisions to make in March is Willie Mullins. He has a host of novice hurdlers capable of running over trips between two and three miles and this weekend we saw another one join the ranks at Navan in the shape of Un Atout.

Un Atout arrived at Willie Mullins’ yard with a tall reputation and he was sent off at 2/7 on his racecourse debut in a bumper at Naas. With Patrick Mullins in the saddle he settled comfortably in front with just the outsider of seven, Foxland, for company. Unsurprisingly, Foxland dropped away relatively early and it was then left to main market rival, Directors Forum, to challenge, but while Mullins sat motionless, content with his mount cruising along, the rider on Directors Forum was hard at work on the final bend and eventually dropped away too, leaving Emily O to give chase. She may have got within four lengths but then at the two furlong pole Mullins nudged him forward and Un Atout stretched clear in a dominant, destructive manner, finishing 24 lengths ahead of the runner-up. This performance in early January was, to my eyes, the most impressive bumper display of last season. Willie Mullins had hoped to run him in one more bumper but he suffered muscle problems and was sensibly put away with a campaign over obstacles in mind.

For anyone who had seen his bumper, Un Atout’s hurdling debut at Navan on Saturday was highly anticipated. Over two miles, like his bumper, he was again happy to settle in front. This time, with Davy Russell on board to dictate the pace, nothing in the race was willing to challenge him for the lead, and he managed to grab a four length advantage. The pace was steady and a number in behind fought for their heads, while Un Atout was left alone able to have a clear sight of his hurdles. He jumped the first quickly but then skied the second and at the fifth he just clipped the top yet he was still sharp over it. He cleared the fourth last in style, making the ideal shape while once again being swift through the air. Russell let the field close up on the approach to the straight with the horse in second moving onto his tail. Then at the third last Un Atout got in too close and as Davy Russell shook him up to just get away from the flight after the sticky jump, Un Atout accelerated, quickly re-extending the lead. Russell sat straight back up and barely moved again as he was able to maintain the four length advantage right to the line with Fickle Fortune finishing well for second.

The most striking thing about this run was the ease with which Un Atout did it. There appeared to be so little effort involved for the horse, seemingly cantering from start to finish. While he does have room for improvement in his jumping Davy Russell’s mount was actually quite nimble over his hurdles, picking his legs up quickly when in close. He may not have put in the exuberant leaps stablemate Champagne Fever is capable of but he didn’t cede ground to his pursuers and was in fact deceptively fast from one side of the hurdle to another. I am sure as he gains experience his jumping will become an asset, or as they say in French; ‘un atout’.

Often when a heavily odds-on shot readily wins a maiden hurdle there is little of note in behind, only once upped in class can we really see how good he or she is. At Navan, Un Atout did what was expected of him, cruising to victory from an inferior field with a rise in class, no doubt, imminent. On this occasion, though, there were at least two very useful bumper performers with potential to be high class novice hurdlers in against him and they were dismissed with contempt. Noel Meade's Fickle Fortune, in receipt of 7lbs from Un Atout, had looked so exciting when winning her bumper and has been unlucky not to win since. Her problem has always been her inability to settle, but she is a pacey individual who will make her mark over hurdles and she finished a very decent second here. Some Article, purchased by J.P. McManus after convincingly winning the Goffs Land Rover Bumper at the Punchestown Festival, is also expected to make a very useful novice hurdler. While he was keen through the race, Some Article was essentially outclassed by Willie Mullins’ charge, unable to pick up as the leader sauntered away on the bridle. Un Atout was a level above this opposition on Saturday, he is already an exceptional prospect.

Whether he will win the Supreme is another matter as immediately after Saturday’s race Mullins described Un Atout as a stayer. This suggests a preference for stepping up in trip meaning that the Neptune could be the long term target. Nothing he has shown so far indicates a lack of speed for two miles, he has barely come off the bridle in two starts over the trip, conversely he will clearly have no issue over further having finished full of running each time and he is closely related to Sir Des Champs, who is out of Un Atout’s half-sister (both are by Robin Des Champs). He is very likely to be just as effective at both trips, the more important factor might be the other potential runners for the owners and the trainer. Willie Mullins’ main hope for the Neptune at this stage is Champagne Fever, he surely had his final run at two miles over hurdles last time, so unless he goes all the way up to three miles Mullins will have to aim Un Atout at the Supreme to avoid a clash. He did run both Sous Les Cieux and Make Your Mark in the Neptune last year so maybe he won’t mind having more than one runner, the real complication is the owners. They did have two runners in the Supreme last season thus it could be irrelevant but with Don Cossack they have another serious Neptune candidate and I would be very surprised if Gigginstown Stud were not keen to keep him and Un Atout apart. There has been talk of Don Cossack missing Cheltenham altogether with connections’ eyes firmly on chasing next season, leaving the path open for a Un Atout to have a tilt at the Neptune, but I find it hard to believe that Gordon Elliot would skip the meeting with his very best unless the ground was fast.

With such an inexperienced horse, like Un Atout, there will of course be doubts and there are certainly question marks over his suitability for the Cheltenham Festival. For instance, a minor concern is that we don’t know how he’ll cope being in and around horses during a race yet or whether he needs to be in front. I suspect connections have a huge amount of confidence in the horse and they have merely kept things simple in races they expect to win, such is his ability tactics should be immaterial. Another concern is that Un Atout has so far only run in testing conditions apparently relishing them each time, but as a close relative of Sir Des Champs one would expect him to handle the prevailing ground in March and he isn’t a heavy topped horse in the mould of Bog Warrior or Don Cossack. He will probably improve for the quicker ground and if his season turns out how I anticipate then he will head to Cheltenham as Ireland’s best novice hurdler.