Weekend Review - Triumph Hurdle Trials

This weekend saw a number of different Triumph Hurdle hopefuls testing their credentials. While there were some notable disappointments, Paul Nicholls, Alan King and Willie Mullins will be extremely satisfied with their horses and will look to March full of confidence.

On Cheltenham’s ‘Trials Day’, Grumeti and Pearl Swan laid down their festival markers in the JCB Triumph Hurdle Trial. In a desperate finish Pearl Swan came out on top by a short head but after a lengthy stewards’ enquiry the result was amended, the placings were reversed and Grumeti was given the race.  This was the right decision as there had been discernible interference on the run-in and Ruby Walsh was given a controversial three day ban for careless riding. Before the race he was largely unconsidered for the Triumph Hurdle, available at 33/1 with Skybet for example, yet afterwards many felt that Pearl Swan was the horse who ran the best trial and with him being at a best price of 10/1 (as short as 5/1 with one firm) the layers are not taking any chances with him.

Pearl Swan at Taunton

Pearl Swan had first come to the attention of jump racing followers after an authoritative display on his debut for Paul Nicholls at Taunton, just 9 days before his run at Cheltenham on Saturday. He had been a fair flat performer for John Hammond in France and, with his new connections, was sent off a relatively well backed 3/1 second favourite. At Taunton he jumped well, on the whole, and moved through the race like a good horse before quickening powerfully to beat the consistent Ifyouletmefinish four lengths. He evidently had plenty in hand that day and Nicholls wanted to see whether he had a Triumph or Fred Winter horse on his hands by running him on Saturday. Sitting well off the pace throughout, Ruby Walsh, on Pearl Swan, made his move after two out and then at the last he was upsides the leaders before battling with Grumeti all the way up the Cheltenham hill. This run proved to his trainer that he is a Triumph Hurdle horse and he will now head straight for that race without another run. Paul Nicholls is convinced he can improve this son of Gentlewave with his jumping the priority, which looked deliberate at times. He may well find significant improvement in Pearl Swan, in which case he would be a formidable opponent come March but I am still keener on the horse who was awarded the Triumph Hurdle trial, Grumeti.

Grumeti was a useful on the flat for Michael Bell and was seen as a good jumping prospect by his current connections. At the Newmarket sales current connections went to £100,000 to buy this son of Sakhee and on the face of it, this looks good business.

Much like Pearl Swan, Grumeti won his hurdling debut at Taunton. He was even more impressive, pulling fourteen lengths clear of, another formerly talented flat horse and subsequent clear-cut handicap hurdle winner, Ted Spread. In third, a further length back, was Ifyouletmefinish who Pearl Swan had only beaten by six lengths. Grumeti jumped smoothly at Taunton and did much the same at Newbury on his next start where he was all set to demolish his field on the bridle. Unfortunately, at the second last he stumbled on landing and came down. This scuppered, his trainer, Alan King's plan to win comfortably at Newbury before a tilt at the Adonis Hurdle at Kempton. With a worry over the weather turning and a cold snap forcing Grumeti to head straight to festival, after a fall, it was decided a quick run back at Cheltenham was the best course of action. For me, his performance in the trial enhanced his claims for the Triumph Hurdle itself. This run was almost certainly too soon after his fall at Newbury and he started the race like he had fallen recently, jumping slowly at the first few flights. He failed to show the burst of acceleration he displayed at Taunton as a result of him probably not having enough time to recover from his last run. Grumeti was also hindered by the slightly sticky, tacky ground and by the fact that he chased the pace from an early stage unlike his adversary Pearl Swan who had been dropped out. This combined with the interference suffered all the way up the run-in makes his victory all the more meritorious and I am convinced there is significantly more to come.

Alan King has stated that his Triumph hopeful will likely go to the Adonis next for one last bit of crucial experience before the big one. Unless another Zarkandar appears I fully expect him to win that as well as the juvenile hurdlers likely to turn up there have not impressed me to the same extent as Grumeti, and that includes current antepost favourite for the Triumph Saddlers Risk. At this stage Grumeti is right at the top of my Triumph Hurdle list with six weeks still to go and is certainly one to consider antepost.

In third behind Pearl Swan and Grumeti was Hollow Tree who ran his usual good race. He seems to lack the necessary ability for the Triumph Hurdle even though he won the Grade 1 Finale at Chepstow. That is a race that tends to have little bearing on the Triumph itself and it seems clear that Hollow Tree is at his best on soft ground. He may have chance off a big weight in the Fred Winter but I would be quite happy to leave him out of any Triumph Hurdle calculations. Further down the field at Cheltenham was the major disappointment of the race, Baby Mix. The Tom George trained grey finished last of six but he was sent off a 7/4 joint-favourite and was clearly expected to do far better. On his first start for Tom George, also at Cheltenham, Baby Mix ran out an impressive seven length winner and defeated the highly regarded, heavily odds on, Hinterland in the process. On that occasion he travelled strongly and jumped noticeably well before pulling away from Nicholls’ charge. More of the same was expected this weekend but while he travelled strongly for much of the way Baby Mix’s jumping failed to stand up to the test and he made a number of errors. In terms of his Triumph prospects I’m not willing to forgive Baby Mix this run. I’m not convinced his defeat of Hinterland was all that it looked at the time. Hinterland had to force the pace from the front, was keen throughout and, most importantly, was giving the Al Namix Gelding 7lbs. Also, Baby Mix appeared to have a strange head carriage and looked like he was thinking about it on the run-in. He does not look the most straightforward and I cannot envisage circumstances where I would back him for the Triumph.

One further negative for Baby Mix was the run of Hinterland in the handicap hurdle on the same card as the Triumph trial. Hinterland was still in the mix for the Triumph Hurdle going into his run on Saturday and as a result was a well backed favourite. He could only manage third under an interesting ride from Ruby Walsh. While it was not bad run by any means, it looked more of a trial for the Fred Winter than for the Triumph especially as Paul Nicholls has at least two other strong candidates for the race.

Over in Ireland there was hugely eye-catching Triumph Hurdle trial run by the Willie Mullins trained Darroun. He was an expensive purchase for connections at the July Arqana sales in France, costing the princely sum of €140,000. Trained by Alain de Royer-Dupre on the level he managed to win once from three starts and was seen as the perfect type for juvenile hurdling.

It was inexperience that cost him first time up over hurdles at Punchestown where he finished a close second to Shadow Catcher. At Leopardstown on Saturday better was expected and he was sent out in front by Paul Townend, often a sign of confidence behind a Mullins novice hurdler. This grey son of Dalakhani jumped impeccably and he held off the favourite, Hisaabaat, by one and a quarter lengths. Hisaabaat had previously finished second to two Irish hopes for the Triumph, Sportsmaster and, Darroun’s stablemate, Ut De Sivola. Dermot Weld’s juvenile is a good yardstick in these Irish events and he looked the winner approaching the last as he was still on the bridle, but Willie Mullin’s charge outbattled him and in the end the margin of victory failed to do his superiority justice. It is worth noting that rounding the home turn Darroun appeared to lose his action and his jockey had to stop riding for a few strides giving significant ground to the second and third in the process. He is a strapping gelding and still showed signs of greenness at Leopardstown but in overcoming this and his loss of action, Darroun showed that is a talented horse with tremendous scope for improvement.

As a Triumph Hurdle prospect, Darroun could not have come from a better source with the Aga Khan Studs producing recent winners Zaynar and Zarkandar. He looks to be improving fast and with further progression expected on the quicker festival ground he is surely value at 20/1. There is always the problem with Willie Mullins trained horses that he has another prospect for the same race and this is the case here as he trains Ut De Sivola who is appreciably shorter in the market. He beat Hisaabaat further than Darroun last time but Hisaabaat made a dreadful mistake at the last when travelling strongly and there is every chance he was flattered. I was not overly impressed by this son of Robins Des Champs and I would be confident that in six weeks time Darroun will be Mullins’ first string for the Triumph. This being the case he will be much shorter than the 20/1 available at this stage and I suggest taking that price for the Triumph now. Of course, the last two years have shown there is always the possibility that the best juvenile has yet to be unleashed over hurdles; hence backing Darroun each way is advisable.

Supreme Novices Update

In the last week we have seen three horses stake their claim for the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle; Vulcanite, Cinders And Ashes and Midnight Game.

Vulcanite is the first and, so far, only horse to go jumping in the Pearl Bloodstock colours. By the versatile superstar sire Dubawi, he was a classy performer on the level for Ralph Beckett, winning 5 times and finishing just 9 ½ lengths behind the hugely exciting Beaten Up on his final flat start. It was hoped by his Owner, Sheikh Fahad, that if he could transfer his flat ability to hurdles he could set his sights on Cheltenham.

For his first start in the care of Charlie Longsdon Vulcanite was set a stiff task at Kempton on Boxing Day. He faced the Nicky Henderson trained Tetlami who had won his bumper and debut over hurdles impressively. Since then the form of Tetlami’s first run over hurdles has been franked with the second and third winning good races next time out, showing just how tough a test this was for Vulcanite. He ran a race full of promise in finishing a good second with Tetlami all out to beat him by 3 ½ lengths. After the race Charlie Longsdon said it was just inexperience that cost him the race and that the next time he met Tetlami, Vulcanite would reverse the form. On Wednesday, Vulcanite had his second run over hurdles at Southwell. It was a weak race and his trainer admitted that he had to win impressively to be considered for the Supreme. Going off at 1/4 Charlie Longsdon’s charge did not disappoint. Travelling strongly at the head of affairs he quickened away from the field hard on the bridle to win by 7 lengths in the style that was expected.  

On both starts Vulcanite has raced keenly but he was less keen at Southwell, suggesting he is improving with experience. He is likely to have one more run before Cheltenham in which he will have to learn to settle better otherwise he is going to struggle come March. Although it can be argued that he has been keen because, so far, his races have been slowly run. Hence the pace of the Supreme should be in his favour. Another positive for Vulcanite’s Cheltenham aspirations has been his jumping. Following two blunders at his first two hurdles jumped in public at Kempton, Vulcanite has jumped well and enthusiastically. He clearly enjoys his new job and we haven’t seen the best of him yet. The 25/1 available for the Supreme Novices seems a fair price.

However, I am not desperate to take that price at this stage as I see his comfortable victory at Southwell as yet another boost to the extremely solid Tetlami form. I would be far more interested in the 20/1 about him. Connections suggest that Vulcanite should reverse the form with Tetlami next time but I’m not convinced. Even if he were to, it seems that Henderson has at least two with better chances than Tetlami, particularly Simonsig, therefore Vulcanite will have to take a giant leap forward on his next start for me to see him as a contender.  

Cinders And Ashes is a very likeable 5yo who travels strongly, jumps well and quickens like a high class horse. Donald McCain loves him and is confident he can win this year’s Supreme. He was a talented bumper horse, winning twice at smaller tracks before acquitting himself well twice at Cheltenham. On his first run at Cheltenham he was beaten a short head by the talented flat performer Keys. This was some of the best bumper form around and his connections went into the Champion Bumper full of confidence. The son of Beat Hollow travelled like the best horse in the race but weakened, eventually finishing fifth. With an extra year on his back his trainer asserts that he has grown and is a stronger animal.

This season, Cinders And Ashes has run four times over hurdles and should be unbeaten. His only defeat came on his first start at Ascot to Broadbackbob. Having made what looked a race ending error at the fifth flight he lost significant ground on the leaders but eventually picked up again, and to his credit was leading at the last. Unfortunately for his connections his efforts in recovering his position took their toll and he was just outstayed by the Nicky Henderson gelding. Broadbackbob is a smart individual and should have a great chance in the Neptune Investments Novices’ Hurdle, so, on the face of it this was a pleasing debut over hurdles for Donald McCain’s horse. Next time, at Aintree, he came up against his old adversary Keys. Whilst Keys was evidently not suited by the conditions, Cinders And Ashes reversed the form in no uncertain terms, proving just how much he had improved since last season and his liking for soft ground. This was a striking performance, he won by 9 lengths in the end, and is probably still his best over hurdles. His last two runs have been in small fields at Haydock on heavy going and both have been similar performances. On each occasion he has travelled smoothly through the race and picked up the leader late on, before showing his superior class and quickening away. The form of each run is hard to evaluate but his latest performance was more significant as he beat two well regarded horses from top stables and the runner up, Double Ross, has form that ties in with the best novice hurdler around, Fingal Bay. This was also the race Donald McCain ran Peddlers Cross in before his Cheltenham Festival victory.

The trainer’s plan now is to head straight to the Supreme and Cinders And Ashes looks a strong candidate. He has strong bumper form, he handles Cheltenham, jumps hurdles well and travels like the high class horse he appears to be. As a consequence, he is fancied by many and now the longest price available for him is 14/1. This, again, is not an unreasonable price and he has achieved far more than Darlan so far, who is shorter in the betting. It is very hard to knock him but his best form has come on soft or heavy ground. He may well improve for the quicker ground in the spring but it is worth pointing out. As is the fact that he made a shocking jumping error on debut and another mistake at the last on Saturday. In the Supreme he will not have the time to get back into the race like he did at Ascot and he will not be so superior to his rivals that a final flight blunder will not matter, as he was at Haydock. In short, Cinders And Ashes will be thereabouts coming to the last in the festival opener but I would be surprised if there wasn’t at least one horse in front of him come the line.

Midnight Game was bought by Willie Mullins at the Arqana Sale in Saint-Cloud for €185,000 having been runner up twice in listed company on the flat for Jean-Claude Rouget. This was the same sale that in 2009 he bought Zaidpour and it was hoped this son of Montjeu would be a similarly good novice hurdler.

Unlucky not to win first time over hurdles having been hampered at the last, Midnight Game has progressed from there. On his next start he was fourth behind stablemate Sous Les Cieux in the Grade 1 Royal Bond and he would have been closer had he not nearly fallen two from home. Next he went to Leopardstown on Boxing Day an 11/10 favourite and won, beating a subsequent winner, Joxer, by half a length in the process. He stepped up again on that run next time at Naas this weekend in beating the highly touted Dylan Ross comfortably by 2 ½ lengths. With this rate of improvement he has quickly made up into a smart novice hurdler and there is even more to come. What excites me about him is that Mullins believes he is certain to improve for the quicker ground he will face at Cheltenham. This on top of his already progressive profile bodes extremely well for his festival challenge.

As is often the case with Mullins there are a number of different horses he could run in the Supreme Novices and also the Neptune Investments over half a mile further. This makes antepost betting on his horses tricky but luckily for Midnight Game supporters he has stated that the Supreme is the aim. Whether he will be the Mullins first string is another question. The trainer has mentioned recently that the likely target for his, aforementioned, Grade 1 winning novice hurdler Sous Les Cieux is also the Supreme. I am a huge fan of this French bred and Mullins feels he has the requisite speed to challenge over 2m on quick ground but I see him as a better prospect over further. Were Mullins to agree and step him up in trip for the Neptune then I would have to look extremely closely at Midnight Game. If Mullins did make it clear, soon, that he was the best of his 2m novice hurdlers then the 20/1 currently available would look big and quite tempting.

Cheltenham Preview: Ryanair Chase Antepost

The trouble with antepost betting on the Cheltenham festival, at the moment, is that so many horses have a number of different options. This is particularly the case with the novice hurdlers and chasers. As a result, unless you have the word of the trainer or feel like it is worth taking the slightly bigger price when there is a risk of the horse going elsewhere, many of the races at this stage look decidedly unappealing as betting propositions. With the championship races it appears easier to ascertain the likely runners but then when one looks at the Champion Hurdle market there are doubts among a number of horses due to setbacks through the season or a desire to go up in trip and face the mighty Big Buck’s. Even the Gold Cup has problems; in that one of the most interesting runners (and my selection at this stage) is a novice, who theoretically has 3 or 4 options in March. Outside of Grands Crus there appears little value at this stage. The World Hurdle market does have value in it if you are willing to oppose Big Buck’s but again those with potential have various doubts about their participation. This leaves the Champion Case and the Ryanair. It is far easier to predict the fields in these races but in the Champion Chase there are very few contenders and again there appears to be little value outside of choosing a novice who is just as likely to go for the Arkle. Hence, the festival race it is best to concentrate on at this stage from an antepost perspective is the Ryanair Chase over 2 miles and 5 furlongs.

Outside of Captain Chris and Finian’s Rainbow, who will probably in run in the Gold Cup and Queen Mother Champion Chase respectively, the only doubts revolve around fitness. Riverside Theatre, Realt Dubh and, the two times Ryanair Chase winner, Albertas Run would be serious contenders for the race were they to run but due to injuries there are question marks over the participation of each horse. Of the more definite runners at this stage; Rubi Light, Medermit, Gauvain, Somersby and Great Endeavour all seem to have chances on what they have done this season. However, the two I am most keen on now are Noble Prince and Kauto Stone. 

Noble Prince won the Jewson novices chase over 2 miles and a half at Cheltenham on Ryanair Chase day last year. This was an impressive performance and he beat the highest rated novice of last season, Wishfull Thinking, by 4 lengths. It also showed that he handled the course well and the stiff finish seemed to suit him. Then he fell when looking like disposing of the, aforementioned Arkle third, Realt Dubh in the Powers Gold Cup (Grade 1) at Fairyhouse. This season, following a win in a non event at Naas, the Montjeu gelding has run second to Big Zeb twice at 2 miles and in chasing down the former Champion Chaser, who has looked as good as ever this season, Noble Prince has done his Ryanair claims no harm at all and has probably enhanced them. On both occasions he ran extremely well over a trip that is essentially too short for him to be seen at his best.

My concern over Noble Prince is that the form of the Jewson Novices’ Chase has not worked out this season. Wishfull Thinking (2^nd) and Loosen My Load (3^rd) have been hugely disappointing on the whole, and Radium (4^th) has been sent back to France. The form of all last season’s 2m4f+ novice chasers has looked suspect and I would be wary of backing anything from that category for the 2012 festival.

Paul Nolan has said today that the next race for Noble Prince will be in the Normans Grove Chase at Fairyhouse over 2m1f. He will not face the likes of Big Zeb and Sizing Europe so it should be a race for the taking. If he wins it like he should then his price will shorten slightly but at the moment he is 6/1, half the price of Kauto Stone who I believe at 12/1 looks the value call in the race.

During his time in France Kauto Stone amassed over £500,000 in prize money and he managed to win three chases, as a 4 year old, including the Grade 1 Prix Maurice Millois (won by Long Run in 2009). This performance made him officially the best 4yo chaser in France and he was subsequently bought by Robin Geffen who sent him to Paul Nicholls. As Kauto Star’s half brother he was always going to be an exciting prospect and with his facile success in the grade 2 Ladbrokes.com Chase at Down Royal he did nothing to dampen the enthusiasm for him. After the 2m4f race Nicholls said ‘the Ryanair is an obvious target in the spring’ and this is still the case. Last time out Kauto Stone ran in a soft ground Tingle Creek over 2miles. With his best trip being further than 2m it was thought the soft ground would help make the Sandown race more of a stamina test thereby giving him a good chance of defeating a field which lacked depth. Paul Nicholls successfully did the same thing with Kauto Star on two occasions but with Kauto Stone he was not quite so lucky. Kauto Stone ran extremely well in coming second to the current Champion Chaser Sizing Europe, he was upsides for a long way and it was just between two out and the last that the extra pace and turn of foot that Henry De Bromhead’s horse told. At Down Royal on his first start he made a couple of jumping errors and at Sandown he did much the same with a particularly bad one at the notoriously difficult third and final railway fence. In spite of this, he jumped well in the main and it is probably true that travelling at grade 1 pace over 2m, against an exceptional jumper in Sizing Europe, probably tested his fencing to the limit.

Whilst he was no match for the winner he ran very much as if a step up in trip would benefit and in fairness he did beat Cornas, who had his ideal conditions (a fast run 2m on softish ground), by 5 lengths. In the Haldon Gold Cup, over 2 furlongs further, Medermit only beat Cornas by 1¾ lengths. This then was a very useful performance over 2m and in a race on slow ground without Big Zeb or Sizing Europe he would probably be hard to beat. His next run is likely to be in the Betfair Ascot Chase over the same distance as the Ryanair, where he could face Captain Chris. I’m sure, much like his half-brother, he will improve for the extra distance and he may well win, especially if he sharpens up his jumping. Were this to happen his price would be slashed for the Ryanair and he could challenge for favouritism.

The concerns for those thinking of backing Kauto Stone for the Ryanair Chase are twofold. With him running so well behind the reigning champion chaser over 2m and with the sudden dearth of 2m chasing talent at Ditcheat, now Master Minded and Tataniano are out, Nicholls may decide to go for the shorter championship race. Al Ferof is being considered for the Queen Mother Champion Chase as well but even if he was to run in the Arkle instead, I still find it unlikely that they would run Kauto Stone against Sizing Europe again, as on the Sandown form has no hope of beating him. The second concern would be Kauto Stone’s apparent preference for softer ground than he will almost certainly encounter at Cheltenham. He won his grade 1 in France over 2m6f on heavy going and his impressive win at Down Royal was also in testing conditions but he is not a big, heavy horse so 2m 5f on decent ground should be fine and Kauto Star actually prefers a sounder surface. In summation, the Ryanair Chase looks the perfect race for him and with no standout in what looks an open renewal, Kauto Stone is the selection.

Supreme Novices Hurdle update: The Tolworth Hurdle

Having tipped Simonsig on the blog earlier in the season it was interesting to see Nicky Henderson run a French import in a Grade 1 two mile novices hurdle on his first start for the yard. Captain Conan won by a small margin but, nevertheless, stamped his claim on a place at festival for the Seven Barrows team. Intriguingly the trainer and jockey seemed keen to save him for fences much like they were with Sprinter Sacre. From the television pictures Captain Conan looked huge when chasing down the smaller Colour Squadron and anyone who has seen him in the flesh has reported that he is an imposing type built for chasing, so you can understand where Henderson and Geraghty are coming from. What must also come into the reckoning is the number of prospective runners in the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle the trainer already has. Some will have to miss out and if a horse looks more a chaser than a hurdler then there is logic in saving the likes of Captain Conan for next season. However, I imagine they will have some difficulty in trying to convince the owners.

The form of the Tolworth for me looks dubious and as much as the first two are likely to keep improving it is difficult to argue any horse, bar the winner, has run its race. Captain Conan jumped and travelled like the good horse Henderson thought he was but he was all out to just beat the wayward Colour Squadron. Had Colour Squadron kept on a straight line and Richard Johnson been able to ride a proper finish on the horse then you could rate Captain Conan’s performance quite highly. In that situation then both would be fully justified in being at the head of the market for the Supreme. Unfortunately, Colour Squadron looked to have the race won entering the straight but he hung left the whole way up the run in with only the rail to keep him on a reasonable course. Then as the rail ended Colour Squadron dived to the left leaving Richard Johnson with an impossible task, thereby throwing away the race and gifting it to Geraghty’s mount.

There had been an indication that the Hobbs hurdler might not be the most straightforward with the way he jumped slightly left on his previous start at Newbury and the way he finished his first start over hurdles at the same track. Something of this magnitude was not expected, however, and it must be unlikely that he will run on a right handed track anytime soon. In terms of his Cheltenham prospects, there must be some promise in this performance as he came very close to winning a Grade 1despite hanging violently and at Cheltenham he will be going left handed.  Although, at Cheltenham there is very little rail to help on the home straight which would again give him the possibility to throw the race away, plus, I fear he will not come across the soft ground which ideally suits him.

Colour Squadron started the race as joint favourite along with Prospect Wells. Prospect Wells was a late entry after the race was re-opened so this was somewhat of an afterthought. This could not excuse the awful performance though and it was another reason to be wary of the form, particularly when looking forward to Cheltenham. Having run well on his previous four starts over hurdles, albeit with his last one being the least promising, he was expected to go well here by many including his trainer. The Sadler’s Wells gelding did not look happy through the race and was off the bridle far earlier than would be expected. Coming into the straight he was not too far off the leading pair but Ruby Walsh was hard at work and he faded tamely, finishing last of the four finishers. There are certainly excuses for this run and he may well start a bigger price in the Supreme than he deserves to and he will go straight there according to connections. Nevertheless, this was a bitterly disappointing effort and it would take some forgiving to back him for the festival opener.

Finishing third, seven lengths ahead of Prospect Wells, was the Charlie Longsdon trained Magnifique Etoile. He had won two very minor events over hurdles prior to this and is well regarded by connections. The trainer’s concern in the build up to the race was the soft ground and it proved his undoing, although he is probably not up to this class yet anyway. He travelled fine until just after three out where he could not quicken like the front pair out of the ground and much like Colour Squadron and Prospect Wells, he is almost certainly better than he showed here. While it may not be form to follow too closely with regards to the Supreme, the race may have a bearing on a festival handicap as his festival target will be the County Hurdle according to his trainer, and he will not be without a chance.

The 40/1 outsider of the five runners was High Storm who was pulled up before two out having run no sort of race. His previous run was very encouraging as he ran the exciting Darlan˟ extremely close at Cheltenham in December. He clearly ran nowhere near this form at Sandown and might be one to give another chance down in class, possibly, up in trip.

  ˟ Darlan only finished a nose in front of High Storm but I am in no doubt that the distance flattered the Rebecca Curtis horse. Darlan cruised through the race at Cheltenham and looked as if he was likely to win the race on bridle before stumbling on landing at the last thereby losing momentum. This made it a race, but he always looked like getting there even though in the end it was by the smallest of margins. His previous run over hurdles and his bumper win had both been very easy and today at Taunton was more of the same. At Cheltenham, though, he showed he had battling qualities which will be important if he is to have festival ambitions. I do not believe he ran up to form at Cheltenham, hence, for me Darlan still falls into the ‘could be anything’ category. He has now won three races on the bridle and, if his trainer can sharpen up his jumping, he may be yet another contender for the Supreme coming from Nicky Henderson’s yard.  

Cheltenham New Years Day review: Cheltenham & Three Counties Race Club Hurdle (Class 2, 2m 4f 110y)

A small field with only two real protagonists that was won by a high class odds-on shot, Oscar Whisky. Fourth in a Supreme Novices and third in last Season’s champion hurdle, his class and speed has never been in question. He had also won this race in 2011 and last time out over course and distance. Understandably he was sent off the 4/6 favourite but the race was not a foregone conclusion, however, with Barry Geraghty’s mount giving the up and coming Nicholls hurdler, Poungach, 8lbs. In truth, Oscar Whisky was not tested at any stage through the race. With Richard Johnson on Cockney Trucker setting a decent pace in front there were no worries of the race becoming a sprint and Geraghty sat a few lengths off the leader biding his time before making his challenge rounding the final bend hard on the bridle. Then he hit the front as Cockney Trucker wilted, with the staying on Poungach, under Ruby Walsh, his only meaningful rival. I use the word meaningful loosely as Oscar Whisky was never out of second gear while Poungach was all out in trying to cut him down. As Geraghty sat motionless all the way to line, Oscar Whisky had managed to eke out a winning distance of two lengths that could conceivably have been 5 times that.

With regards to the future of Oscar Whisky and more pertinently his festival target it is hard to know what to take from the race. In its simplest form this race was little more than a very high class horse defeating inferior rivals comfortably. Despite this, Poungach is no back number and the way Oscar Whisky sauntered up the Cheltenham hill suggests there is no reason why a step up in trip would not suit. By the same token, the manner in which he travelled, and always travels, shows how much speed he has and that a drop back to 2m would be no problem. His connections, it seems, want to send him for the World Hurdle where he will have to tackle the extra half mile but more importantly the superior being that it Big Buck’s. It is highly unlikely Oscar Whisky will be able to overturn the reigning champion but I have no doubts he will make a race of it.

As for the rest of the 4 runner field, Poungach, in second, ran a somewhat unexpected race. His previous two runs over hurdles, at Ascot and Sandown, had been marked by him travelling all over his rivals and pulling away with a visually pleasing turn of foot. Here he did not seem comfortable through the race and was off the bridle passing the stands on the first circuit. A worry his trainer held after his Sandown run was that he did not jump his hurdles brilliantly and this was again the case, making a number of errors. This all meant he had to be cajoled along by Ruby Walsh for much of the contest but his stamina kicked in late and it looked as if he might throw down a serious challenge to the winner. He failed on that count but he did pull well clear of the third and on ratings this was his best performance so far. The way he ran this day points to a step up to 3m being in his best interests, however, if for some reason he wasn’t himself then he is well worth another go at this level over this trip as there are not many around in Oscar Whisky’s league. On looks, Poungach appears to be serious chaser of the future. He is bigger and stronger looking than Oscar Whisky and I can see him being a major player in the novices chase division next season. Hence for this season everything he does, as they say, is a bonus. 

In third and fourth were Cockney Trucker and Drill Sergeant. They were both outclassed in this event but there were again signs of promise from the run of Cockney Trucker. Having finished third behind Oscar Whisky the time before he was entitled to run a decent race here and he did. Setting a reasonable gallop, he ran well for a long way before being swamped by two higher class rivals. He seems to run better in better races so a drop in class is unlikely to see him improve his modest strike rate but there is no reason to think he won’t show up well again in one of the fiercely competitive festival handicaps.  Drill Sergeant travelled noticeably better than Poungach through the race but as has become the norm, recently, he found little in the end. He has become one to avoid and is unlikely to win a decent prize anytime soon.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AJ_lRSnqCw4

Cheltenham New Years Day review: Cheltenham Pony Club Raceday Novices' Chase (Registered As The Dipper Novices' Chase) (Grade 2) (Class 1, 2m 5f)

A competitive 6 runner novices’ chase won by a gallant, largely consistent, locally trained horse, Champion Court. He had enjoyed a satisfactory season so far with, a good victory at Aintree followed by a useful second to Grands Crus, giving him 5lbs, and then a decent run behind two talented staying novices over 3m last time, where he had excuses.

Not fancied by many, Champion Court went off a 6/1 shot here, but with the reversion to former tactics those odds were made to look silly. Taking the lead from the off he jumped boldly throughout and was never headed. His tendency to hang right resurfaced from his hurdling days which gave Solix and his supporters some hope but in truth he never looked like winning. In defeating some promising and previously exciting types this looked a good performance. With a view to the Festival his trainer states he has no intention of taking on Grands Crus again so his participation in the RSA is in doubt. If he were to run then there must be a worry about him staying the 3m, particularly running from the front. It appeared he lacked the stamina of Join Together on his last attempt at that trip and it is likely there are others who will finish the 3m with more relish. I would much rather see Champion Court running over 2 1/2 miles in the Jewson where he could set off in front and not worry about conserving stamina, it seems the ideal trip at this point in time.

In the Jewson I wouldn't be sure that Champion Court, who was receiving 3lbs and had an easy time of it up front, would confirm the form with the second, Solix. Nicky Henderson’s French import was always going to make a chaser on looks, but on his first chasing start in this country he jumped poorly on the whole, only showing any propensity for chasing at the last couple of obstacles. His second attempt at Cheltenham was far better. He was hardly exuberant and took a few jumps to get into a rhythm, but he crossed his fences efficiently albeit getting in close on occasion. Both times he won easily, but this was a step up in class and Solix dealt with it well. Again not jumping with much fluency to start with, he jumped better through the race and challenged the winner all the way to the line. He looks well suited by the trip and is sure to improve his jumping again with more experience. I see him as a live candidate for the Jewson and the 16/1 still available is worth taking.

Invictus, 8 lengths behind the front two in third, was a disappointment. Having looked so good on his previous two starts this season, especially at Plumpton where he showed an impressive turn of foot, many expected far more from King's charge. He didn't jump or travel with the same zest this time round and he was keen early, but the race was run to suit and whatever way you look at the run it was a blow to his festival chances. It is possible he wasn't himself at the Prestbury venue and he did lose a shoe early on and was reportedly sore afterwards, so if you can put a line through this then he would still be in the mix for a race in March.

An even bigger disappointment for many was Sonofvic. At Newbury he had made Grands Crus work for his victory and he did jump well. However he had stayed on late that day and it did not suggest a drop in trip would suit. The trainer disagreed and tried him in this decent field but it was plainly the wrong race for him. Seemingly unsuited by the undulating track, he was outpaced early and his jumping was sticky at best throughout. On a flat track at 3m he could still show that he is a talented staying chaser but I don't believe he will make a Cheltenham horse at any trip.

Cheltenham New Years Day review: Neptune Investment Management Novices' Hurdle

This race was as much about those absent as it was about the winner. As I suggested in my Supreme Novices post, Fingal Bay is the horse by which all middle distance novices hurdle form will likely be measured. Since then he has won the Grade 1 Challow Hurdle and Barbatos had finished closer to the exciting Hobbs Hurdler than any other in this field and as result had the strongest form in the race. He was sent off 9/2 second favourite but ran like the short priced favourite he deserved to be. Never in trouble, he travelled strongly throughout and jumped soundly. Hitting the front just before the last, he pulled clear and won with considerable ease, what looked a competitive race on paper turned into a rout. Ian Williams’ imposing grey has never looked a flashy type but is solid and looks to have improved with experience, he has already had one novice season over hurdles and he finished 5th in this race in 2011. This was a classy performance by Barbatos but his festival prospects will likely be hampered if Fingal Bay sticks to the 2 ½ mile trip. However, on the back of this performance he is a serious player for the places in March and if Fingal Bay goes for the Albert Bartlett then he has every chance of fighting out the finish.  

In second was Batonnier who sat out the back off the pace and stormed up the Cheltenham hill. He seems to run a solid race every time but the strong pace and his race position probably means he was flattered by the result and I would not be confident of him winning at a short price dropped in class.

The horse to take out of the race was Forgotten Gold who, carrying 11st 12lbs (minus the rider’s claim), finished third. His previous runs over hurdles had been marked by impressive jumping and this performance was no different. Gaining ground at every obstacle he ran from the front and of those who finished in the frame Forgotten Gold was the only horse not to come from off the pace. He looked like being the only serious challenger to the winner approaching the last but his early exertions setting the pace told and he tired, losing out to those sitting off the fast gallop. Not the biggest or the best looking horse in the field this was a promising performance in, what looked like, a strong field. He is young enough to grow though and with his jumping prowess and pedigree there is every chance he will make up into a smart chaser.

Other horses to note were the fourth and fifth. Hard To Swallow was a good fourth only 1½ lengths behind Forgotten Gold. He looked outpaced early and put in a number of slow jumps. It is possible he still remembered his heavy fall at Chepstow when booked for a place behind Fingal Bay, but it seemed as the race went on he warmed to his task and gained confidence. Between the last two he looked one of a number in with a chance but he is probably not good enough to win a race of this sort and he lacked the finishing kick of the winner. I can see Hard To Swallow improving with racing and is very much one to look out for over further. In fifth was Judge Davis who looked the pick of the paddock, a big well made gelding he is sure to be a staying chaser in time so this performance over a trip too short must give connections significant hope for the future.

As much as Barbatos was impressive the majority of his main rivals were extremely disappointing. Imperial Circus had beaten the well regarded Rolling Aces last time over 3 miles so the way he dropped out so early and quickly suggests there may have been something amiss. Jimbill, who was impressive on his first start over hurdles, travelled strongly for a long way but he was another who stopped quickly, albeit with a soft ride, and probably paid for his proximity to the pace. The form of One Term’s first run over hurdles had been franked the day before with his ½ length conqueror Ballyrock running Fingal Bay close at Newbury the day before. However, his usual front running tactics failed this time because of his somewhat sloppy jumping and crucially, he was too keen. He is surely capable of better than this and not one to give up on. It could be that a drop to 2 miles sees him in the best light. Finally, the well backed favourite Master Of The Game looked to be challenging the leader following two out, having come from off the pace, but he weakened out of it and may have needed the experience.