Supreme Novices Update 2014/15

Now at Cheltenham Zone, here is the first piece of the new season. http://www.cheltenhamzone.com/reviews/supreme-corner-douvan-lays-early-marker/

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Cheltenham Festival video review

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Supreme Novices Update: Irving (Dovecote Hurdle)

Stats and trends are an indication of what has happened, not necessarily what will happen. I try not to let them dominate my thinking when it comes to Cheltenham but naturally, some will seep into the consciousness and have an unintended, though not unhelpful, influence on one’s opinions. Writing off a horse’s chances because it has run in a race which has failed to produce the winner of a certain Festival contest, for example, is too arbitrary yet I generally like a Supreme Novices’ Hurdle candidate to fit a certain profile. Knowing what it takes to win the race, the test it can provide and therefore what sort of horse is likely to flourish under those conditions is invaluable to success.

Ideally a Supreme candidate would have looked impressive in bumpers and or shown strong form in that sphere. Horses to have had a hurdling background in France also make significant appeal. That may appear vague and does not narrow down the field particularly but the key point is I would almost invariably be negative towards those coming off the flat. Not every Supreme is the same however, not every field is as strong, and while flat recruits usually struggle to win me over some do and in Saturday’s Dovecote Hurdle, Irving did.

It was a far from stellar line-up and First Mohican, seen as the leading danger to Irving largely based on his flat form, was weak in the market beforehand. During the race he made mistakes at his obstacles and was beaten relatively early, looking awkward and reluctant with his ungainly head carriage once again in evidence, as it was on hurdling debut at Doncaster. The rest of the field were unlikely to pose a serious threat to Paul Nicholls’ charge based on what had gone before this season, but Irving still despatched his rivals with a contemptuous ease that has quite rightly set him atop the betting for the Festival’s opening contest.

Ridden more prominently than at Ascot in December, Nick Schofield (aboard Irving for the fourth time) was content to track the leader, Amore Alto and the free-going Germany Calling. With a smooth passage he travelled sweetly throughout, seemingly giving his rider a simple job as he jumped soundly in the main and moved from in contention to in control without the need for coercion. As this six-year-old has gained his experience it is noticeable how quickly he gets away from his hurdles (this is especially evident on Channel 4’s coverage, with the fourth last flight providing the best example, Racing UK only has a head-on view here). This element of his armoury could set him apart as even the mistakes he has made have yet to halt his momentum; he is nimble and clever while he can pull out prodigious jump if he meets a hurdle wrong as he did over the last at Kempton. That was the only semblance of a scare, he did kick the top out of the second last having tanked into it but Schofield was reluctant to let him fly it in case he hit the front too soon. Whereas there would be concerns about some in the Supreme jumping at high speed Irving isn’t one of them.  

A strong pace on faster ground at Cheltenham could really suit Irving, a picture of him travelling in the slipstream of the leader on the run to the last (perhaps Vautour) is easy to imagine, and his turn of foot combined with the acceleration away from the final flight may then prove the difference.

As hinted at above the form of Saturday’s Dovecote hurdle can be questioned given the lack of strength in depth but this comprehensive thrashing of Amore Alato on ground that, according to connections, inconvenienced Irving should not be underestimated. Nick Williams’ gelding is by no means a Supreme contender, he is not, nor is he ever likely to be a multiple Grade 1 winner à la The Tullow Tank who was so confidently seen off by Vautour. He is a solid, consistent novice hurdler with a high level of ability. Both his wins this season, at Wincanton and particularly Kempton, have worked out well. The ultra-impressive Doncaster winner, Vaniteux was among the vanquished on Boxing Day. His run prior to Saturday was in a heavy ground handicap at Cheltenham where he was far from disgraced, finishing third behind the obscenely well handicapped Lac Fontana and Totalize who is very useful in the conditions. Crucially, he was taken on for the lead at Cheltenham, unlike at Wincanton or Kempton, including on Saturday where the son of Winged Love was allowed to dictate the pace with no competition up front, he was even handed five lengths at the start. Coupled with a well-executed ride, Amore Alato was a difficult rival to master, as the rest of the seven strong field showed, yet Irving swept by him unflustered.

It is also worth mentioning the boost given to his Kennell Gate Novices’ Hurdle form at Ascot by the third that day, Splash Of Ginge in the Betfair Hurdle. Success there came off a lowly mark and he was ridden (and ridden smartly) by a seven pound claimer but even then it is hard to believe he ran to the same level behind Irving. He jumped poorly and out to his left during the first half of the Ascot Grade 2 therefore this franking is not quite as spectacular as it may appear, nevertheless it provides some much needed support to a shaky looking piece of form following the comprehensive blowout of the likely second (before coming to grief) in the rearranged Tolworth. Prince Siegfried’s fall may have left its mark, however, and as a consequence that run is easy to ignore, I certainly wouldn’t use him as a stick to beat Irving with.

Many will have been more excited by Irving previously than I was and consequently availed themselves of some attractive antepost prices. The prospect of taking the 3/1 currently available is therefore soured somewhat but I am now as excited as anybody, outside of the connections, by this rapid bay gelding and would rather be with him than Vautour at the same price.

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The notion that Un Ace could be horse for the Cheltenham Festival was put forward right at the start of the season by his trainer Kim Bailey. He was for sale at the time and that is essentially how he was advertised. In an attempt to avoid ground soft or worse Un Ace was not sighted until last week at Doncaster, thus making the prospect of a visit to Prestbury Park rather remote. Fortunately for those who kept the faith with this son of Voix Du Nord their patience was rewarded with an emphatic display at the Town Moor course. Without the peck on landing at the third last, which briefly appeared to end his chances, he may not even have come off the bridle in his defeat of Tom George’s well-regarded prospect, Stellar Notion.

According to connections he had earned his place at National Hunt racing’s top table and who can blame them. The Supreme has been muted as the most likely option and the experience gained there should bring him on considerably. To compete in such a race on just your second start is an extremely tall order and quotes of around 66/1 say it all. He is not without considerable potential though and, hopefully, with the travails of the Festival safely under his belt he may be one to consider seriously during the concluding weeks of the season.

Supreme Novices Update: Wilde Blue Yonder

Wilde Blue Yonder began his career in unexpectedly good style when narrowly failing to topple the hotly fancied Purple Bay (who would later finish fifth in the Champion Bumper) at Doncaster. A tilt at the Aintree Bumper was far from unreasonable, yet ultimately unsuccessful. He was keen early and moved through the race comfortably before being outpaced when the leading protagonists set sail for home. He stuck on well for a period until his enthusiastic nature caught up with him, finishing eleventh of nineteen. At this early stage in his career it was an eminently forgivable run.

Such a stern test did him no harm as he returned this season to outclass his opposition in a Uttoxeter bumper in early November. He then made a winning start over hurdles at Newbury in a race that, to a degree, has worked out well. Seedling stayed on into second and he has underperformed since in desperate conditions but Tiqris, whom Wilde Blue Yonder saw off nicely after a protracted battle, has won impressively since and finished second in a Listed race. Seven lengths behind the winner in fourth was the heavily punted favourite, Sign Of A Victory who bolted up in a jumpers bumper at Kempton on his next start while back in fifth, Fascino Rustico was a likely winner at Wincanton on Saturday until coming to grief, having narrowly missed out in a traditionally strong novice hurdle at Kempton on Boxing Day.

Paul Nicholls’ charge was far too keen behind Wild Blue Yonder hence his superiority over him was exaggerated and despite dossing in front he failed to beat Tiqris with the same level of ease as Josses Hill, who went onto to shape best of all when narrowly outstayed in the Tolworth. Josses Hill is a raw chaser in the making and despite both meeting Tiqris on hurdling debut it was the Winged Love gelding who was most inconvenienced by the lack of experience. Wilde Blue Yonder was generally quicker over his hurdles despite the prescient error at the final obstacle, where he almost failed to take off entirely. Josses Hill showed in the Tolworth how quickly novices can improve and Wilde Blue Yonder will need develop rapidly if he is to best Nicky Henderson's imposing prospect at Cheltenham.

A return to Newbury a month later saw him face a field of five including another Seven Barrows inmate, Stand To Reason. Largely overrated on the back of a comfortable success in lowly company at Wincanton, Stand To Reason (Wilde Blue Yonder’s only meaningful rival) was ridden with restraint by Tony McCoy, as he attempted to settle alongside. The gallop was steady until Wilde Blue Yonder quickened off the final bend applying pressure to the former flat performer. That seemed to tell as he met the third last all wrong with McCoy fortunate to maintain his partnership. Nicky Henderson’s six-year-old looked beaten.

Robert Thornton’s mount generally hurdled with fluency through the first three-quarters of the race, barring one lazy error at the fourth, yet once more as the race moved towards its climax and each jump gained greater significance his technique unravelled. At the second last this cavalier son of Oscar threw himself at the flight, giving little thought to self-preservation, and an opportunity was suddenly presented to his pursuer as Robert Thornton manfully held on.

McCoy was motionless atop Stand To Reason as they headed away from the penultimate flight but, in spite of his blunder, Wild Blue Yonder was far from beaten and regained the lead under strong pressure from his rider. Having seemingly travelled well up the straight, Stand To Reason was urged to match his gutsy rival but despite the Champion Jockey not throwing everything at his mount there appeared to be little left to give as he failed to assert at the last.

I felt Alan King’s gelding was about to go clear, his pursuer unable to cope with the testing conditions and a superior novice. That is debatable, though Wilde Blue Yonder’s clumsiness is not. Having guessed at the previous hurdle he just managed to pick his legs up high enough to avoid catastrophe, albeit narrowly. At the last he was not so lucky as he found himself in too close after a final unnecessary stride, a mistake not dissimilar to that made a month earlier from which he survived. It was a heavy, potentially confidence knocking fall.

Without the mental lapses Wilde Blue Yonder probably would have come out on top in December, though only after a hard fought tussle with his well-regarded opponent and a stretch of the imagination was needed to place him into the Supreme reckoning, even for place purposes. Considering the problems in the King camp, however, that run could be looked upon more favourably than the performance suggests. It was still hard not to be concerned by the calamitous nature of his displays though and, with his yard now through the worst of its problems, the threat of a late tumble had to be in the back of one’s mind on Saturday even if Wilde Blue Yonder had a form edge at Ascot.

Another small field awaited at the east Berkshire venue, this time he was faced with three meaningful rivals, most notably the well backed favourite and eventual winner, Mountain King. Charlie Longsdon’s Wadswick Court made the running and he set a slow pace early on, forcing much of the field to pull. Wilde Blue Yonder actually settled relatively well in rear and with minimal pressure on his jumping, he was fluent.

The race begun in earnest as Mountain King faltered at the fourth from home, in the process losing considerable ground. In order to recover, Richard Johnson woke him up, moving from last to first in striking fashion on the run to the home turn. This injection of pace caught Wilde Blue Yonder marginally flat footed as he had to be shaken up to maintain position and then join those quickening clear. The response was swift and telling, eye-catchingly making his way up the inside into the lead at the second last. Under pressure, but by no means all out, he then drew three lengths clear as earlier exertions appeared to tell for the rest apart from the pace-setter who plugged on admirably. The race looked in safe keeping, only the last flight was between Wilde Blue Yonder and an impressive victory, finally a performance worthy of a Supreme place.

Predictably, the last proved too big an obstacle for this exasperating five-year-old as once again he guessed at the flight, sprawled on landing and gave Robert Thornton another moment to forget. This mistake was reminiscent of that made at Newbury’s penultimate hurdle in December, the horse took off more in hope than expectation. He needs to have his mind made up for him, with the race at your mercy Wilde Blue Yonder is not one who can be left to sort himself out and ‘pop’ an obstacle. Given past indiscretions the jockey must shoulder some blame. By now there should have been some inkling that such an event was possible, sitting still once more was insufficient. With the emergence of First Mohican, Wayne Hutchinson may be in the saddle at Cheltenham, as Robert Thornton switches to the classy flat performer, and that can only be a plus.

Even with the services of Hutchinson, and hopefully a new plan of action, it is difficult to justify backing Wilde Blue Yonder for the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle. The risk is too great, if he is unable to cope with the pressure of small field contests several notches below the level of the Supreme how can he be trusted to keep his race intact at the last in March. Eventually this weakness is bound to be remedied and was it to vanish at Cheltenham he could prove dangerous to those solid propositions ahead of him in the market though a leap of faith is still needed.

Saturday was going to be a clear career best for Wilde Blue Yonder but I am not convinced the form will turn out to be strong and a four or five length defeat of Wadswick Court would still leave significant room for improvement if he is to become a Festival player.  

Supreme Novices Update: Deloitte Novice Hurdle – Vautour and The Tullow Tank

At the awkward distance of two-and-a-quarter miles, the Deloitte Novice Hurdle is the natural intermediary between Cheltenham’s Supreme and Neptune novice contests. Participants in a quandary about the ideal destination for their runners can have their minds made up by how the horse shapes, does speed or stamina take precedence?

This year’s renewal appears to have split two of the Supreme’s main protagonists as defeat for antepost favourite (before the race) has swayed The Tullow Tank’s connections in favour of a tilt at the longer race and success for Willie Mullins’ Vautour has secured his place in the Festival curtain raiser.

Ruby Walsh, back on board Vautour having been elsewhere for his narrow victory at Punchestown, surmised that nothing in the Deloitte was willing to set the pace. A void was present and he filled it, in exemplary style. Connections had already come to the conclusion that Vautour was a strong galloper, thus given this opportunity Walsh was more than willing to take it.   

On this occasion, able to avoid the inconvenience caused by a pacesetter akin to that at Punchestown, Vautour set out at a relatively steady pace, before gradually increasing it from ten furlongs out. All bar the favourite (The Tullow Tank) were then seen off as Ruby Walsh asked his mount to quicken decisively from the second last. Both Vautour’s French starts were over this extended trip and he saw it out strongly. The Tullow Tank threw down his challenge which, given his history of finding off the bridle, looked threatening as he closed the gap to three lengths in the home straight but that was as close as he could manage with Vautour showing no signs of tiring.

Such an immaculate ride from Ruby Walsh may lead some to question whether Vautour is as superior to The Tullow Tank as this result suggests. The Robin Des Champs gelding certainly made the most of his unchallenged lead yet he could not have executed these tactics and won so impressively without exhibiting the attributes of a top class novice hurdler. Vautour proved he stayed further than two miles, often necessary to win a hard fought, soundly run Supreme. He displayed tremendous speed to quicken away from this field and that asset found the second, a dual Grade 1 winner over two miles, wanting.

Willie Mullins believes in order to have success over two miles at Cheltenham slick jumping is of paramount importance. This was in evidence on Sunday and based on this performance his jumping should be of huge benefit at Cheltenham. Vautour was exceptional over his hurdles on Sunday, meeting each flight, bar one (the fourth last), on a perfect stride. Gaining ground throughout, he put pressure on his rivals and gave himself an easy time as he used the minimum effort to maximum effect. Just a five-year-old, Vautour has scope to progress between now and March while his reputation suggests he could be even better than he looked on Sunday. He has all the necessary qualities to win a Supreme and deserves to head the betting. Vautour does make the most convincing case of any novice targeting the race but I would not suggest it was convincing enough to take the 4/1 generally available at this stage.  

No one could deny he was given an easy lead and the tempo of the race did not suit his chief danger The Tullow Tank who was dropped in. Despite winning those two Grade 1s his speed was not his forte, when the emphasis was placed on stamina he ground it out. Such a relentless style is made for a Cheltenham contest but in order to stay within striking distance of the speedier types the jumping must be quick and accurate. Losing ground and momentum is terminal against the best performers over two miles and this looks to have cost Philip Fenton’s ‘Tank’ at Leopardstown.

Jumping had never been the reason for The Tullow Tank’s success, it had never been electric, but it hadn’t held him back this season either until the Deloitte. He is seen in the long term as an exciting prospect over fences (not unlike Vautour in fairness) and early on his jumping was very much in the mould of an embryonic chaser. He somewhat skied the first, got in tight at the third, and then was unable to match the leader at the next two as Vautour extended his lead. The fourth last was his biggest mistake of the race as he hit the flight and landed on all fours. In response to that he jumped too high at the third last and was particularly slow away from it.

Danny Mullins was left further back than ideal on this strapping son of Oscar but he didn’t panic. The situation was graver at the penultimate obstacle where The Tullow Tank left his hind legs in the hurdle just as Ruby Walsh asked his mount for the telling injection of pace. He was at his best over the last once asked for everything by his rider. The damage had been done though, finally a Willie Mullins trained novice was not for catching.

Philip Fenton suggested afterwards that his charge may not have been at his absolute best. That is possible though it was not a run to be dejected over and were his jumping to sharpen up off the likely stronger pace in the Supreme there would be reason to hope for a reversal of form. I would still aim him at the two mile event as I suspect Faugheen will be even harder to overturn than Vautour and the shorter race often suits stayers, especially those with multiple Grade 1 wins over the trip. Understandably, connections seem to be leaning towards the other option over two-miles-and-five-furlongs. They will be hoping for further improvement for another step up in trip (he had only raced over two miles prior to Sunday) and given the hurdling issues exposed at Leopardstown, rather than school him intensely and hope for greater fluency, the Neptune could prove more suitable as he will be allowed more time in the air over his obstacles. Whichever route connections choose The Tullow Tank will be a leading place contender, whether he quite has that extra spark to win is doubtful.

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Exeter’s listed novices’ hurdle on Sunday often has a bearing on the Supreme. It is ideally placed for certain horses to have their final prep run before the main event. Incessant rain naturally gave the ground an exhausting quality, contributing to the relatively poor field, but the going is usually testing on this day and the race was a disappointingly drab affair. The winner Vibrato Valtat was an almost effortless winner from Tiqris, who already had solid novice hurdle form, and they both have enviable futures. However, neither of them or any of the five that took part are entered in the Supreme and one can only hope that next year the Plymouth Novices’ Hurdle can regain its place as a key Supreme trial.

Supreme Novices Update: Wicklow Brave

To suggest Wicklow Brave has come into the Supreme reckoning under the radar may be unfair to those who I know had marked him out as a likely candidate for the Festival at an early stage, but unlike so many from Willie Mullins’ Closutton base there has been little in the way of hyperbole surrounding this five-year-old. That could be down to his inability to get off the mark in either of his first two bumpers or he simply lacks what others in the Mullins novice hurdle camp have and as such found himself lower in the pecking order than his racecourse exploits indicate should be the case. Whatever the reason, following Sunday’s display, he will no longer lack admirers and he has put himself firmly into the Cheltenham picture.

Wicklow Brave wasn’t impressive when winning his third bumper start at Galway in July and it was the same story next time at Listowel. Only at Tipperary, where he completed his bumper hat trick, did he hint at the level of ability he has now shown over hurdles. Off an unusually strong pace, he took up the running in effortless fashion at the furlong pole and stayed on well. Two lengths back in second was Western Boy, in receipt of 10lbs, whose high class efforts over hurdles make this win for Wicklow Brave all the more meritorious.

Crucially that was another improved effort from the Beat Hollow gelding and that progression has continued, even accelerated, over obstacles. On hurdling debut at Cork everything came very easily too him. He jumped proficiently and cruised to the front before drawing clear from the last under a motionless Paul Townend. It was a weak race overall but the second was successful at Thurles next time out. Wicklow Brave was keener than had been previously here and when stepped up in class at Punchestown in the Listed Novice Hurdle on Sunday he took an even fiercer grip.

As is often the case with horses fighting for their heads, Wicklow Brave’s jumping was somewhat restricted. While it was far from concerning, his hurdling was more ponderous than ideal. At the second last he was notably slow and, having been right in behind his primary challenger Lieutenant Colonel, he suddenly found himself with a significant deficit to overcome. This was perhaps the most impressive part of this display as he quickened abruptly, with minimal encouragement from his rider (Ruby Walsh), finding himself on terms in the run to the last. The race looked under control as they jumped the final flight but a sloppy error let his Gigginstown owned rival briefly back into it. Earlier exertions fortunately failed to take their toll as, once back on an even keel, he drew away smartly under hands and heels to win by four-and-a-half lengths.

Such a comprehensive defeat of a well-regarded and, surprisingly, well backed opponent is enough to treat Wicklow Brave as a live contender for any Supreme Novices’ Hurdle shortlist. Stablemate Vautour may have beaten Lieutenant Colonel more comfortably at Navan, however he had far more in his favour. Despite running too free and making a horlicks of the last he ran out a ready winner. Facing the stronger pace of a Supreme will undoubtedly suit and improvements in the jumping department are surely forthcoming, if indeed they are necessary.

Bred on the same Beat Hollow, Rainbow Quest cross as 2012 Supreme winner Cinders And Ashes, Wicklow Lad should prove up to the task at Cheltenham. Whether he is quite up to winning a race that competitive is questionable and punters/bookmakers have not missed him. Yet, with all the significant ‘trials’ coming up this weekend he is the sort to be forgotten, particularly if another stablemate wins the Deloitte. Given the upward trajectory of his career so far, any sense of amnesia would be dangerous.

CHELTENHAM ZONE - Triumph Hurdle Update

I have done a run-down of the leading Triumph Hurdle contenders here: http://www.cheltenhamzone.com/previews/the-triumph-hurdle-picture/

Le Rocher

Supreme Novices Update: Zamdy Man

Zamdy Man was always a horse his connections had high hopes for. Venetia Williams’ substantial gelding was thrown straight into Grade 1 company to make his hurdling debut at Chepstow, in the Finale Hurdle, following a short spell on the flat. He was not disgraced, trailing home in fifth, though he failed to excite thereafter as a juvenile. Two encouraging second place finishes led to attempts at both the Cheltenham and Aintree Festivals where he was largely an irrelevance.

At the start of this season Zamdy Man put that experience to good use, making all in emphatic fashion at Ascot, collecting the same prize won by My Tent Or Yours when he defeated Taquin Du Seuil during the previous campaign. This renewal unsurprisingly lacked the quality of its predecessor and nothing those in behind have done since suggests it was anything other than a moderate novice hurdle but the winner was a long way clear of the second, in a different league altogether. A step up in class followed and on his first trip of the season to Haydock he took in a Listed novice event. Further success there inevitably pointed to loftier ambitions and Saturday saw him return to the Lancashire venue for the Skybet Supreme Trial Novices’ Hurdle.

This weekend Zamdy Man set a reasonable pace in front, far from a dawdle, yet unlike his other runs this season he was hassled for much of the way by the impossibly keen Meadowcroft Boy. Chief market rival and race favourite Un Temps Pour Tout made up ground to join Zamdy Man and his free-going partner at the fourth hurdle, Tom Scudamore on the favourite was possibly wary of how difficult it had been for others to pick up and pass Zamdy Man this season and or concerned about his mounts’ suitability for sharp tests over two miles. The heavy ground would have helped in that regard and he threw down a stern challenge to the winner but that perceived lack of speed, which had been noted from his Gallic days, ultimately cost him here. He certainly has a bright future and there is every reason to expect improvement upon his first start in this country, especially over a longer trip.

The winner of a “Supreme Trial” naturally deserves to come into the reckoning for the main event and there is plenty to enthuse about regarding Zamdy Man. He has matched or exceeded expectations each time he has raced this season, even as those expectations have risen. He is only five and there is plenty more time to progress particularly when one considers his size, Aidan Coleman suggested in Saturday’s aftermath that it had been this holding him back during his juvenile campaign as he was too weak. Jumping played a large part in Zamdy Man’s most recent triumph, appearing fluent throughout and when under most pressure from the runner-up he put in his most effective leaps. He has a willing and determined attitude, certainly not lacking guts, and will surely stay further given his admirable ability to keep finding off the bridle when in front. This does not mean he is ripe for an increase in distance though and it is absolutely an asset when it comes to the demanding nature of the Supreme.

Factoring all this in and his apparently generous price of 33/1, it may seem churlish to essentially dismiss Zamdy Man as a Supreme Novices contender but unless this year’s renewal is even worse than feared I struggle to see him getting involved. He relishes testing underfoot conditions, however even if Cheltenham was to break the habit of a lifetime and come up heavy I would still prefer a number of others, principally those on the brink of heading to the Neptune.

The distance back to the third at Haydock, Meadowcroft Boy, might give the illusion of a very strong race but he could never be a serious factor after his hard pulling antics, while Stand To Reason, who was further back in fourth, failed to handle the going and he has been widely overrated on the back of positive noises coming out of Seven Barrows. His debut success over hurdles was a weak event whilst he was gifted the race at Newbury as his rival appeared to have him covered before exiting at the final flight.

Zamdy Man likes to dominate his opposition and he is going to find that a near impossible task at Cheltenham, particularly at the pace he will be forced to travel. This son of Authorized has yet to prove he has the class to see off a field of that nature and an indication of his limitations could be his second win of the season where he was perhaps fortunate to beat Nicky Henderson’s Oscar Hoof. Zamdy Man stole six lengths at the start that day and was afforded a soft lead. In that scenario a more convincing display from Venetia Williams’ charge could be expected yet he was all out to beat his inexperienced foe by less than two lengths. That inexperience, it was his hurdling debut and he lacked Zamdy Man’s flat background, cost Oscar Hoof dearly in the latter stages and it was not necessarily his preferred trip either given the appreciation he showed for a more demanding stamina test next time out.  Oscar Hoof is well regarded and in time it may, on the face of it, look impressive form, but he is also seen by his trainer as a chaser. 

That was all the way back in November and Zamdy Man has evidently developed in the interim but he is highly unlikely, in my opinion, to have developed enough to pose a potent threat in March. 

Supreme Novices Update: Tolworth Hurdle & Vautour

Any hopes of a standout Supreme contender emerging from the murky waters of the two mile novice hurdling division were dashed this weekend as Vautour was forced to dig very deep at Punchestown, in a race he was expected dominate. That followed a protracted battle in the Grade 1 Tolworth Hurdle between a couple of unlikely Supreme contenders for Nicky Henderson, particularly the winner who is destined to head elsewhere.

The Tolworth was a chance for The Liquidator to confirm the abundant promise he had shown in his opening two starts over hurdles. He had annihilated a small but seemingly competitive field at Cheltenham, his jumping again taking the eye as a rare asset, one that could take him to the top of the novice hurdling ranks. He was heavily backed to produce something close to his Cheltenham display against stronger opposition, in ground that was not going to inconvenience him, however the exuberance and brilliant hurdling style which characterised his previous goes over obstacles appeared to leave him as soon as he jumped the second.

I had been hugely taken with The Liquidator at Cheltenham, the performance, along with his Grade 1 bumper form left me in no doubt at the time that he deserved to be early favourite for the Festival’s opening race. He soon was after the great white hope, West Wizard met with defeat at Kempton. It was not long though before genuine excuses arrived for those in behind David Pipe’s charge and the worth of that form came into question. I certainly had to re-evaluate just how good that performance was, nonetheless even if The Liquidator isn’t quite the force he looked in his defeat of Sea Lord that does not explain the lifeless display in the rearranged Tolworth. The fact it was rearranged might be key as David Pipe expressed concerns over the sharp nature of Kempton, especially compared to Sandown, but such inadequacies are far from enough for me to believe he gave anything like his true running. Excuses are bound to be found and I am willing to forgive this aberration as he still has the profile of a potential Supreme Novices’ Hurdle winner, though he has lost his tag as a solid proposition and Saturday showed his all-important hurdling technique is not unimpeachable.

Tom Scudamore’s efforts, on The Liquidator, to make the Tolworth a true test at two miles played into the hands of the eventual winner, Royal Boy, especially in the testing conditions. I had been very keen on the son of Lavirco in these pages last season and I suspect he may have beaten Melodic Rendezvous at Cheltenham were it not for an understandably conservative ride on his hurdling debut. He then re-opposed Jeremy Scott’s star in last year’s Tolworth where his jumping fell apart as he tried to make all. That was his final run of the 2012/13 season and little he had done this time around suggested he was soon to go two places better.  A swiftly aborted chase campaign, after an inexplicably lamentable first attempt, was followed by an admittedly smooth and impressive return to hurdling but it was over two-miles-and-six furlongs.

Such a trip was assumed to be the making of him and graded contests in excess of two-and-a-half miles was the natural way to go. The Neptune Investment Management Novices' Hurdle at Warwick on the same day as the rescheduled Tolworth was the intended destination until conditions turned heavy and they were mindful of a damaging slog reminiscent of that faced by their own Mossley in the same race three years ago. They knew Royal Boy didn’t lack pace based on his runs last season and his extra experience and stamina proved invaluable as he outstayed his raw stablemate. Despite the rest of the field probably having reasons for not showing themselves in their best light Royal Boy will be seen to best effect over further and this was a smart performance in the circumstances, one that should not be too quickly dismissed in the build up to his inevitable run on the second day of the Festival.   

If Nicky Henderson is to have serious contender in this season’s Supreme Novices’ Hurdle it will likely be Saturday’s runner-up, Josses Hill. He is one I am particularly excited about, albeit more for the future and over fences than for the upcoming Cheltenham showpiece. He did well to win first time over hurdles at Newbury as big, slow, careful leaps cost him momentum. It was this lack of speed that left question marks over his suitability for high class hurdling contests over the minimum trip. Experience will help in this regard and while his careful style was still in evidence at Kempton, there were signs of improvement; his bold leap at the last nearly sealed the race. If he can get his act together over hurdles and continue his rapid progression it would be folly to rule him out yet. I imagine he will be given the opportunity to prove himself once more before March, with the listed novices’ hurdle at Exeter in early February sticking out as a likely option.  

Back in third was the Willie Mullins representative, Upazo, who had probably suffered for travelling to and from Sandown for the original Tolworth. He was somewhat laboured in his performance even if nothing he had done previously suggested he would be up to winning a Grade 1. I had expected more from Garde La Victoire, his loss to Ballyalton had felt like strong form but defeats for the pair subsequently must leave one with reservations. Philip Hobbs’ gelding was outpaced here and as I suggested after his Cheltenham reverse he might be a candidate for a step up in trip.

The lack of authority stamped on this weekend’s Supreme ‘trials’ has led to a greater air of confidence around Irving but the distance Prince Siegfried was beaten will not have added any substance to style of Paul Nicholls’ “Concorde”. Prince Siegfried was essentially alongside Irving at the last when he came down during their meeting at Ascot.  It was quite a heavy fall however and no significant gap between runs hence there is a chance he was still feeling the effects of that tumble.

Over in Ireland, Vautour, the horse who had recently been backed into 8/1 favouritism for the Supreme, made his fourth start over hurdles (second for Willie Mullins). One could be nothing other than positive about his first run in Ireland and there were no worries about a rise in class, he had experience, he looked readymade for it. Such was the impression he left at Navan he was confidently expected to take this in his stride. The second that day had come out and won convincingly since while the extraordinary market support for the son of Robin Des Champs and the vibes coming out of Closutton indicated we were about to witness something special. Finally a novice was about to lay a benchmark that would be daunting for any prospective challengers.

Sadly, expectations were not met, rather, disappointment was felt in spite of a hard fought and well deserved victory for Vautour and Paul Townend. Willie Mullins may have been deflated, as Vautour clearly shows a great deal at home, but calls for a trip to the Neptune are a little hasty. He was keener than ideal from the off, a typical Supreme gallop would soon sort that out, finding a slow(ish) pace on slow ground against him. He would have been well schooled in France and again his jumping was sound, measuring all, bar the last, flights well. This was harder than usual given the waywardness of Chicago in front, who I am sure was a frustrating presence for Paul Townend. As the race developed he would drift out to the left on approach to the hurdle before jumping right, across Vautour, who had inevitably made ground on the leader having kept in a straight line. From about halfway Chicago was also struggling to maintain the pace he was trying to set and as a result kept dropping back into Vautour’s path, before picking up again. Paul Townend then found himself locked in on the rail as Mr Fiftyone kept on the outside of the struggling leader. The young jockey did extremely well to pull Vautour back from in behind the leader prior to the home turn thereby allowing him to find his proper stride and quicken past.

He would have preferred a lead for longer as once in the clear he seemed to idle, inviting the onslaught from the eventual second, Western Boy. This lack of concentration contributed to his stuttering take off at the final hurdle and Western Boy’s well timed charge was on the brink of success. As he moved alongside Vautour the favourite found more and saw him off with more to spare than the bare margin suggested. I imagine everything comes more easily to this French bred five-year-old on a quicker surface, Saturday was not an enjoyable scenario and he was feeling the effects on the run-in. A race like the Supreme will provide him with a very different test, his opposition would of course be far stronger, but conditions should be more suitable and he does not lack speed or the necessary hurdling attributes to be competitive. Some firms have pushed his price out from 8/1 to 10/1 which remains far too short, yet the Mullins team usually know what they have on their hands and that price could be more an indication of what he will achieve than what he has achieved.

A Neptune/Albert Bartlett Update: Briar Hill

Even after his surprise but emphatic success in the Champion Bumper, the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle was a remote prospect for Briar Hill. He shaped like a potential stayer on his debut at Thurles and his homework clearly indicated he would be seen to best effect over a trip further than the minimum, hence his 25/1 SP at Cheltenham. 

As is compulsory, he was immediately installed as favourite for the following (now this) season’s Supreme and his stablemate, Champagne Fever’s exploits would have done nothing to dampen the enthusiasm of those tempted.

Briar Hill matched Champagne Fever’s early hurdling career in that he followed a maiden hurdle with a tilt at a Grade 1 before taking in the Slaney Novice Hurdle. Unlike Champagne Fever his maiden was over two-miles-two furlongs and his Grade 1 was over two-miles-four. 

Every time Willie Mullins or Ruby Walsh are questioned about Briar Hill the term lazy is used and even against those vastly inferior rivals faced at Wexford in his maiden hurdle, such characteristics were apparent. 

On board, Ruby Walsh felt it best to keep the tactics simple and set off in front, but early on Briar Hill had to be encouraged to maintain the pace he was setting. As the race developed his class told and he drew clear without much effort. Despite the winning margin it was not a scintillating display and eye-catching notions such as push button acceleration were absent. However, that is rarely what’s needed and crucially his hurdling technique was extremely encouraging.

The Grade 1 Navan Novice Hurdle was a farcical affair with only a single rival for Briar Hill and, determined not to rely on a superior sprint finish to his opponent, Ruby Walsh set off to make the running once more. A loss of concentration at the third last allowed Azorian to look a bigger danger than he actually was but essentially his jumping impressed again. Worryingly, he took far more rousting, and from an earlier stage, than one would expect of such a high class prospect, with accusations of laziness appearing well placed. 

He eventually responded willingly, picking up in striking fashion. Azorian had arguably thrown his race away earlier on by, all but, running out on the bend approaching the sixth flight leaving doubts about the merit of Briar Hill’s performance. Similar sentiments apply to Sunday given his main rival in form terms, Very Wood, another owned by the Gigginstown operation, threw away his chance with an error strewn round of jumping. In spite of this Very Wood still finished within four lengths of Willie Mullins’ charge, a cause for concern even if Briar Hill’s laziness was even more in evidence on this occasion.

Sunday’s Slaney Novice Hurdle was another ominously small field with only three runners and for the first time since the Champion Bumper, Ruby Walsh received a lead on Briar Hill as he settled his mount in between the leader Apache Jack and Very Wood. 

Apache Jack had faced defeat in three maiden hurdles prior to breaking his duck convincingly at the start of December. Until that point, as a full brother to Black Jack Ketchum, he had been largely disappointing and even accounting for his most recent exploits the Oscar gelding was still by far the least fancied of the trio. 

Nonetheless he gave Briar Hill and his connections their biggest scare to date thanks to a typically well-judged ride from the front forcing the idle odds-on favourite to pull out almost all the stops. Ruby Walsh had to get serious with his mount all of four furlongs out in order to close the concerning gap between him and the leader. 

He made up the ground in good time, though in the straight he had to be hard ridden to assert his superiority over Apache Jack. Once he had jumped across the runner-up at the final hurdle the race was fundamentally over despite Briar Hill having to feel the force of the whip and he pulled away by a couple of lengths, albeit only in the dying strides.

Subsequent to the race Willie Mullins indicated they would only be considering the Neptune and Albert Bartlett novice hurdles for the six-year-old and that came as no surprise. Briar Hill has done precious little quickly in his hurdling career and it is hard to envisage him mixing it with the very best over two miles on decent ground at Cheltenham even if they are a somewhat moderate bunch. 

In fact, I have similar concerns about him for the Neptune. He is bred to be a stayer, as Mullins has reiterated, the son of Shantou is out of a sister to Boston Bob and already their careers appear destined to follow similar paths. Boston Bob took in the Navan Novice Hurdle on his way to a gallant second place finish in the Albert Bartlett, where he doggedly tried in vain to reel in a bold jumping front runner. I can see something eerily similar occurring this season except Briar Hill may overhaul this year’s front runner, Kings Palace.

Each time Briar Hill has taken to the track this season he has run as if further will suit, he needs to be wound up into full stride and over three miles at Cheltenham he will have enough time. His galloping style will be suited by a consistently strong pace and Kings Palace will deliver that in the longer race. 

There are likely to be far more doubts in the Neptune, last year for instance the emphasis, as it often is, was all on speed. When searching for a Neptune winner I like to find a horse with enough pace for two miles who, once out of their novice season, will have campaigns geared around the Champion Hurdle or Arkle. I cannot see that being the case with Briar Hill, much like Boston Bob, the RSA already picks itself as a longer term target. A recent winner like First Lieutenant may lead you to question such a view but Rock On Ruby was unlucky in that race and in fairness to the Mouse Morris trained gelding he had already won a Grade 1 hurdle at two miles.

For me, Briar Hill lacks the gears for any Championship race over less than three miles and the Albert Bartlett is the obvious place to go. Willie Mullins does not see it that way however and, as much as I would like to, his participation in the Neptune cannot be ruled out. What could keep him from stepping up in trip is his jumping. 

All the focus surrounding Briar Hill has been on his lackadaisical attitude, his unwillingness to do more than is necessary. Some have branded him slow, others very slow but that is harsh to an extent and his jumping proficiency has been missed. He is athletic, nimble and eager to attack the obstacle when required. Such assets are invaluable over shorter trips and whereas Mullins’ other leading novice Faugheen, who will surely go where Sunday’s winner doesn’t, has looked clumsy, Briar Hill has looked accomplished.

It may be that we are too easily sucked into believing Briar Hill is unconscionably lazy, he could just be producing what he is capable of. It may also be that we are too quick to base judgements on a horse’s displays in very small field, slowly run affairs when his best performance came in a big field off a frenetic pace. 

When reflecting on Sunday’s performance it should then be taken into account that Briar Hill saw off two well-regarded opponents, receiving seven and ten pounds respectively, in a race not run to suit. The Neptune then, run over one furlong further, suddenly appears more feasible. It would be difficult to argue he does not deserve another chance to prove his worth, and more importantly speed, for less demanding tests but when breeding, attitude, race make-up and ground conditions are considered the Albert Bartlett remains tailor-made for this unbeaten Festival winner.