Supreme Novices Update: Moyle Park, Garde La Victoire, Irving, Regal Encore and Dubai Prince

This season’s build up to the Cheltenham Festival will be the same as always. It will feel long and drawn out until that Tuesday in March arrives when there will be a sense of disbelief, with so many wondering where the time has gone. During the long drawn out periods there is plenty of time to reassess and alter your thoughts on a race like the Supreme, especially this year with the lack of a standout and the now ever present danger of backing a horse destined for the Neptune. My first thoughts for the 2014 renewal were that Moyle Park was the horse to be with given his bumper exploits and the probability of his trainer, Willie Mullins, keeping him to two miles. On Sunday, Moyle Park did little on his hurdling debut to put me off him, for all was it far from a faultless effort.

The Flemensfirth gelding began his career in the care of Rathvin trainer Harry Kelly, for whom he sauntered away with a well contested Leopardstown bumper, Blackmail, who went on to boost the form, was back in second. Next seen in January at the Cheltenham sales, he was purchased by the 2013 Supreme winning connections for £250,000. His target was soon confirmed to be the Land Rover Bumper at the Punchestown Festival and the result tells you it was mission accomplished. However, it was far from straightforward as he took a ferocious hold in the hands of Patrick Mullins, forcing him to hit the front earlier than ideal. He also had to give over a stone to the second and third. It may have seemed inevitable therefore that he would been passed in the final furlong but he found more, showing his class to see off Wrath Of Titans and Classic Move. Both have won a bumper since and each delivered significant promise for the future on their hurdling debuts last week, with Wrath Of Titans filling third spot behind Moyle Park at Navan.

Clearly work has been done to help him settle as, while he was still keen, he was less trouble for his rider on Sunday, this time Ruby Walsh. There was no attempt to find cover, as Patrick Mullins had been at pains to do at Punchestown, and connections are convinced he will become more tractable with racing. For the time being the increased likelihood of a stronger pace will see him stick to trips around two miles and the quicker he learns to settle the more effective Moyle Park will be in top races. Having looked potentially top class last season, the manner in which he breezed clear of two more than fair rivals here suggests he is well on his way to that status even if there is a concern about his jumping. For much of the race he lacked fluency, guessing at the first two and getting in too close at three more, but as the contest developed in the straight his jumping improved, with accurate leaps at three and two out carrying him to the front. A fast pace should prove integral to Moyle Park settling in future and on the basis of this first run over hurdles it could prove integral to his jumping. If he can he can avoid taking such a strong grip in his races, his stride will not be stifled and he will be able to take a cut at his hurdles, akin to the last three on Sunday. This five-year-old is a real prospect and, with experience, could prove a threat to all in the Supreme once his jumping improves and he learns to settle.

Similar comments should apply to a horse who again advertised his Supreme credentials with a convincing defeat of a well-touted JP McManus owned novice hurdler. Garde La Victoire took the notable scalp of Champion Bumper runner-up Regal Encore at Aintree on his first try over hurdles, but with excuses for Anthony Honeyball’s charge he may not have received the credit he deserved. At Warwick on Wednesday he came up against the Alan King trained, Gone Too Far. Another with stronger bumper form than Garde La Victoire, he had made a promising start to his hurdling career at Wetherby with a relatively facile success and was made an odds on favourite to beat the Philip Hobbs contender.

It may have been a sign of intent from his trainer that he ran him in the same race Menorah won on his way to Supreme success. They could have found a simpler assignment for this four-year-old but they clearly have faith in him and that faith was justified with this commanding eleven length victory. Garde La Victoire is a huge, solid unit, built for chasing and he is yet to pay enough respect to his hurdles. He appears somewhat clumsy, though he is such a powerful sort that when he makes mistakes it rarely halts his momentum and his spectacular leap at the third hints at the scope he has. He was keen from the outset once more at Warwick but there is no necessity for him to find cover with Richard Johnson content with a handy position despite looking from the outside like he could get run away with. The Kapgarde gelding shapes as if there is significant improvement to come in all facets of his performance and his aggressive, arguably relentless, style is pleasing to watch.

Despite the prior promise from Gone Too Far I would be reluctant to use the margin back to him as a reason to laud Garde La Victoire. He did not appear comfortable from an early stage and while he saw the race out well enough to finish second I doubt that this was a true reflection of his ability even accounting for the form of his Wetherby win taking a knock with the tame performance of Varom at Haydock. I suspect Garde La Victoire will relish the prospect of fences and we should see what he is really capable of in a year’s time. He is not one to underestimate over hurdles however, as he has been so far, and I hope he gets the chance to test how serious his Supreme Novice aspirations are in a race like the Grade 1 Tolworth Hurdle at Sandown where he would likely face the Paul Nicholls trained, Irving.   

Irving was a smart purchase off the level from Germany. Fourth place in a Listed contest was arguably his best effort and he was seen as an ideal type for hurdles. Nicholls started Irving off at Taunton, a racecourse he often uses to unleash some of his recruits from the continent. A very steady gallop was set by the leader and Irving was pulling throughout the contest but bar one early mistake and a rap of the last his jumping was nicely measured. Despite travelling freely his burst of speed to see off the Nicky Henderson trained Cup Final, another well regarded novice for JP McManus, was deadly. Nick Schofield was still taking a grip over the last but once asked to lengthen his rivals were left standing. Taunton is usually a test of speed and for this ex-flat performer it was a test that was supposed to suit. On the other hand plenty went wrong and an impression was left that the better the race the better he would be.

It was assumed he would face a much sterner test at Ascot on Friday where he came up against one more Nicky Henderson inmate, Tradewinds. He had looked a talented individual when routing a decent field in a Kempton bumper in February before narrowly losing out at Ayr but failed to show any sparkle at Ascot thereby leaving the race to Irving from an early stage. Again he came up against a painfully sedate pace, which in fairness did not suit Tradewinds, and Irving was a little free but settled better than he had done at Taunton. He had evidently improved from his initial experience, jumping especially well this time and he quickened clear from his ‘rivals’ in the sprint up the straight. It is still difficult to know what to make of this son of Singspiel, he has only contested two weak races over hurdles and both were almost farcical slowly run affairs. The Tolworth will prove very informative and it may test his jumping out of bad ground. At this stage Irving strikes me as a hurdler all about speed who may appreciate flatter tracks, I can imagine Paul Nicholls is already thinking about Aintree at the end of the season. Despite possessing an intimidating turn-of-foot, he may lack the requisite stamina for Cheltenham.

Regal Encore, who after his defeat to the aforementioned Garde La Victoire, was found an embarrassingly easy assignment at Plumpton where, encouragingly, his hurdling was far slicker. We will learn more about him over hurdles when he takes on stronger opposition but with the widely held belief that he is being primed for a tilt at February’s Betfair Hurdle at Newbury, à la My Tent Or Yours, it is unlikely to happen before then.

Dubai Prince is another who was found an inviting opening but this time at Leicester. He is probably the classiest recruit from the flat that the Bloomfields operation have had to deal with having only started 8/1 for the 2011 Champion Stakes and he was last seen winning a Group 3 at York. The primary concern with these talented flat performers is whether they will take to hurdling. Fortunately for connections, Dubai Prince impressed with an assured display and any questions over having the necessary stamina were quashed as he cruised to a six lengths win. The form amounts to very little but his trainer, John Ferguson, knows what he is doing with this sort of animal and hopefully he will progress. I am not a fan of classy flat horses like him in the Supreme and I will look to oppose him as he steps up in class. Nevertheless, he was particularly good on the level and, even though I should not admit it, I did take that 8/1 for the Champion Stakes and I am prepared to be surprised. 

Supreme Novices Update: Sky Bet Supreme Trial Novices' Hurdle

The more I watch racing the more I think trainer form is important. There are any number of yards whose horses are different beasts when they turn up to the racecourse with the yard “in form”. Spotting when a trainer is about to hit form or acknowledging how well their horses are running at an early stage is an invaluable tool, as is sensing when a team of horses are starting to struggle. The problem is, as with almost everything in racing, it’s not an exact science. Deciding at the right time that a yard is out of form is difficult because short-term results can be misleading. It is so often the case during the Cheltenham Festival that a major trainer has a number of fancied runners on one day which all seem to under-perform, resulting in murmurings of concern about the yard’s horses. Then the next day they will have winners of the highest profile. Some take the view that the very best horses can rise above the form of the yard and it would have been possible to argue that on Sunday had David Pipe not had a one-two in the opening conditional jockeys’ handicap hurdle. In reality, too much weight was put on the performances of his runners over the first two days of Cheltenham’s Open Meeting and evidently questioning the yard’s form was a far too short-termist approach.

The Liquidator

Among David Pipe’s battalion on Sunday were three of his smartest prospects. All three were successful but none were more exciting than The Liquidator who confirmed the abundant promise he had shown on hurdling debut at Carlisle. Much of the talk in the build up to Sunday’s race was concerning the reappearance of Supreme ante-post favourite, West Wizard. Few horses have been built up more this season than the son of Westerner but connections sensibly decided to skip the race in order to give him a simpler assignment for his first start over hurdles. His presence would naturally have frightened off a few rivals, hence it was disappointing in his absence for the race to cut up so badly to only four runners. All four were at least coming into the race on the back of a win over hurdles, while Sea Lord was looking to make it seven wins in a row for the Bloomfields operation and was made favourite to do so.

A small field increases the likelihood of a tactical, falsely run race and as the runners trundled to the start nothing looked enamoured with the idea of setting the pace. Tom Scudamore, keen to avoid the fate which befell Oscar Whisky over fences on Friday, took the initiative knowing The Liquidator had made all in a similarly small field at Exeter last season and his bumper performances suggested he would not excel in a sprint. It did seem odd that Daryl Jacob decided to track the pace on Lac Fontana having posted a bloodless victory from the front over the course in October and given the doubts over two miles being enough of a test for him in decent company. He cut out very tamely from the third last, however, indicating perhaps that whatever his rider did he would not have been a factor in the result. Lac Fontana had never given the impression he was capable of having an impact in a race as competitive as the Supreme and this display ruled out that possibility. Whether a problem is found or not one imagines he will be given a break and return over a longer trip.

Ploughing a lone furrow out in front was far from ideal for The Liquidator but he has an enviable attitude and gave no hint that he was anything other than willing. Enthusiastic, accurate jumping characterised his victory at Carlisle and it was the same at Cheltenham. He has such tremendous spring in his legs it is hard to envisage him making a mistake. The only minor issue came at the third last where he jumped impressively, as ever, but landed in a chewed up piece of turf, nodding slightly as his hooves dug in. This is particularly pernickety though as one would be hard pushed to find a novice who jumps better.

For the first part of the race Scudamore only set steady fractions on The Liquidator, allowing each runner to take the first three flights in their stride as they travelled within themselves. He then quickened the pace on the approach to the fourth hurdle, an injection which his rivals, particularly Sea Lord, struggled to cope with. Sea Lord’s inability to handle, national hunt bred, The Liquidator’s speed is ironic given his flat pedigree/past and many felt two miles round Cheltenham would prove an insufficient test for The Liquidator, not vice versa. Essentially, the race was settled from that moment on as Sea Lord, Lac Fontana and Minellaforleisure found the test more and more exacting.

This was a destructive performance from David Pipe’s charge, he pulled a long way clear of a group of smart rivals with the winning distance of fifteen lengths underestimating his superiority. He already looks to have what is required to win a Supreme Novices’ Hurdle, exemplary jumping, Grade 1 bumper winning form, he is tactically versatile, handles any ground and has winning form around Cheltenham over hurdles as well as a prominent showing in the Champion Bumper like the last three Supreme winners. There was a general feeling before the season started that The Liquidator was more of a staying type with the Neptune standing out as his preferred long term target but he proved he had the speed on Sunday, having won the “Supreme Trial”, and all roads must lead to the Festival’s opener. The Liquidator is available at 14/1 for the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle at the moment and that appears generous even at this early stage, he is ready made for the test a Supreme would present and in my opinion deserves to be favourite.  

If there is a danger of getting carried away with The Liquidator’s stellar performance it is because the favourite on Sunday, Sea Lord may not have given his running. He was in trouble from such an early stage, having been caught out by The Liquidator’s acceleration, that his ability to handle the track and or wellbeing can come into question but I prefer to see it as the first time he met a high class rival, in form. The son of Cape Cross just lacks the substantial ability of the winner and the jockey reported Sea Lord needs further in this higher company, consequently the Neptune is now being considered. Improvement can be expected over a longer trip, in view of his late surge up the demanding Cheltenham hill, but I would be reluctant to suggest he could make up into a Grade 1 performer and his jumping would surely come under scrutiny again having made a blunder at the third last here. He did finish second in the end yet he only just collared the outsider of the field, Minellaforleisure on the line. Minellaforleisure easily won an uncompetitive novice event at Wincanton last time out but he was thought to be some way below this level. An enterprising ride saw him move through the race like the second best horse and this performance suggests he was underrated having only recently got over the physical problems that plagued him last season. The assumption that Sea Lord was a significantly better animal than Minellaforleisure over this trip seems inaccurate and the King’s Theatre gelding deserves to be taken seriously this campaign for all his handicap mark will suffer after this.

The Liquidator was not the only potential Supreme Novices’ candidate to deliver at Cheltenham for David Pipe as Red Sherlock took the traditionally strong bumper in style. The prospect of seeing him over hurdles is thrilling and if The Liquidator is going to come up short in the novice hurdle division it will probably be due to the likes of him; the imposing, flashy performers, replete with talent.  

Supreme Novices Update: Minella Foru & Very Wood

To lose their chance at Festival glory in the most exciting race of them all (arguably) on the day before the race must have been agonising for the connections of Melodic Rendezvous. His season had been carefully orchestrated by Jeremy Scott and he was among the leading contenders for the Supreme until fate intervened. Last season, despite not getting the opportunity to prove me right or wrong, I suspect I was guilty of underrating Melodic Rendezvous. The horses he beat often appeared to have valid excuses and I struggled to get too excited about him but in reality he was a rapidly progressing novice set to peak for Cheltenham. His performance at Wincanton on Saturday certainly gave an indication of what he might have achieved had he made it to the start. Defeating a fully fit Far West in that manner was hugely impressive and I will try not to underestimate him in future. This season, Minella Foru might fit into the same mould as Melodic Rendezvous in that he is easy to underrate and excuses for his main rival on Sunday were evident for all to see.   

Minella Foru began his hurdling career in good style at Listowel, having previously taken the eye of point-to-point followers at Lemonfield, yet despite Eddie Harty not hiding the regard in which he is held the four-year-old was still trumped in the Navan market on Sunday by Gigginstown’s exciting prospect, Very Wood. The pace set by the market leader was ponderous at best, but Minella Foru dealt with it well. He was keen but not in a way that would prove detrimental to his chances, while his jumping was little short of ideal for a two mile novice hurdler. There was barely a semblance of a mistake, so swift over the obstacles; he hurdled with a fluency that was all the more striking given the leader’s antics. As the pace quickened from the third last, Minella Foru responded willingly to his rider AP McCoy’s urgings, picking up well to reach and pass Very Wood. This performance showed off plenty of Minella Foru’s assets, particularly his speed which will serve him well as he steps up in class but as a contest the race was somewhat unsatisfactory and his superiority over the second, at the line, could be misleading.

Very Wood was among a batch of point-to-pointers who were trained by Gordon Elliott before being sent elsewhere for their novice hurdle careers. Following a narrow defeat in his first point-to-point, Very Wood took his second in style defeating Champagne Tara, a bumper winner for Jonjo O’Neill since, by four lengths. Before losing him for this season, Elliott ran him in a lucrative Punchestown Festival bumper in which he again ran out an easy winner. One could not help but look forward to his future over obstacles after that and, having moved to Noel Meade, he delivered what many expected on his hurdling debut at Galway. Davy Russell gradually wound the race up from the front pulling nicely clear of the second and a long way clear of the third. He shaped like a relentless galloper on this occasion with a step up in trip looking inevitable. Noel Meade clearly didn’t share that view, deciding instead to stick to two miles on Sunday. There was enough to take from his previous run to suggest he could remain successful over the minimum trip, assuming he could gallop his rivals into submission. Very Wood’s jumping around the right-handed Galway was adequate, with no causes for concern, and connections were confident of a smart performance.

If Minella Foru is a serious candidate for the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle then going down a length-and-a-half was a smart performance for a horse like Very Wood who is a classic Gigginstown prospect, unlikely to reach his full potential until he sees three miles and fences. Very Wood and Minella Foru are different types of horses and the sprint for home would have suited the former far less than the latter. Davy Russell, making the running on Very Wood, had the opportunity to set a real test but his mount did very little to help their cause. He lugged right from the start, jumped out to the right at each hurdle, with varying degrees of severity, and even struggled to navigate some of the left-handed bends. He must have given away a significant amount of ground to his rivals and it is tempting to think that without the wayward tendencies or on a right-handed track, he would have come out on top. However, it also the case that Very Wood was better placed for the sprint finish, than the resulting winner, having had his own way out in front. While AP McCoy, renowned for his strength in a finish when necessary, was hardly all out to settle matters aboard Minella Foru.

Such was the farcical nature of the race it is difficult to draw too many conclusions about the respective merits of the front two. In terms of the Supreme, Very Wood was always more likely to excel over further and, now there appears to be a problem with left-handed tracks, connections may already be looking past Cheltenham to Punchestown for their long term targets. I am trying to keep an open mind with regards to Minella Foru. There is the slight possibility that Very Wood is exceptional and Minella Foru did well to beat him but if he wants to become a top two mile novice he would have to beat a stayer like Very Wood in this manner especially considering the circumstances. Eddie Harty has suggested that his next run will be in the Royal Bond Novice Hurdle on December 1 or the Future Champions Novice Hurdle at Leopardstown's Christmas meeting. Either way we will learn more about his Supreme credentials then as he takes on the best available in Ireland. Despite his precise jumping and rare natural speed the likelihood of meeting rivals from higher profile yards means he may well be underestimated again.

Supreme Novices Update: The Liquidator

Over a period of about 15 minutes on Friday afternoon, two exceptional looking novices made their hurdling debuts. Oscar Rock (Wetherby) and Carraig Mor (Uttoxeter) took their respective fields apart, winning hard held in both cases by nineteen and twenty-five lengths respectively. Each came into their races with great expectations, Oscar Rock having lit up the bumper scene and Carraig Mor having impressed onlookers in his sole point to point as well as his trainer in that sphere, Adrian Maguire. Carraig Mor’s jumping was the more accomplished but neither set of connections could be blamed for already having at least one eye on the Cheltenham Festival. The Neptune and Albert Bartlett novices’ hurdles will inevitably come under consideration having begun their hurdling careers over two-and-a-half miles, and they are a pair every National Hunt fan can look forward to.

The Liquidator, having begun his hurdling career last week over two miles and one furlong, does have Supreme prospects despite being thought of as a stayer in some quarters. Bought out of Shark Hanlon’s yard, following a placed effort in a hot Fairyhouse bumper, The Liquidator started his career for David Pipe in the Listed National Hunt flat race at Cheltenham’s Open Meeting. On this occasion, on an afternoon where it appeared particularly difficult to make up ground, he travelled sweetly in midfield, only moving into a share of the lead as they turned for home. The effort to make up this ground in the holding conditions took its toll, as he was outstayed by the long-time leader, Anonis. He followed up this promising effort with, essentially, a trot around Exeter against three vastly inferior rivals. Little was learnt from that exercise and he returned to Cheltenham for the Champion Bumper still, somewhat, as an unknown quantity. For whatever reason The Liquidator didn’t seem comfortable for much of the contest, possibly struggling with the pace, despite its lack of ferocity, but he never completely lost his position and he stayed on encouragingly after being left behind by the first three, almost snatching third on the line. Finishing so well in a race notoriously tough on horses could have spelt the end of a successful season for David Pipe’s recruit but given his admirable consistency and progression from run to run he was handed the opportunity to finish on a high.

In Punchestown’s equivalent bumper to Cheltenham’s Champion version, won the previous season by Supreme Novices’ Hurdle winner Champagne Fever, rising star Jane Mangan was offered the ride. Ridden handily on the outside of runners, the pace was no issue this time as he travelled like the Grade 1 animal he would soon prove to be. Produced to lead entering the straight, the son of Overbury quickened clear at the furlong pole and saw the race out gamely as challengers plugged on at the one pace. It was a textbook ride and a textbook performance from this five-year-old, one that must not be underestimated as the next three all won on their hurdling debuts, with the second, Gilt Shadow, looking particularly impressive in doing so on Saturday.

Purely in form terms such success could have been predicted, but having seen him in the flesh on each English start last season it did surprise me. The Liquidator was a scrawny, lightly framed, essentially unimposing individual last season and as a result I convinced myself he could not achieve what one might have hoped, particularly over hurdles. If I was going to be against one exciting bumper performer from last season over hurdles it was going to be him yet reports were that he had filled his inconsiderable frame over the summer and developed well. From what I could see of him on television before his introduction to hurdles at Carlisle it was hard to get away from the sense that he had grown and, in relation to his rivals, become a more imposing specimen. He then put in a display that forced me to reconsider and, even at this early stage, I have to see him as a realistic contender for the Supreme, if that is the route they choose to go down.

David Pipe enjoys starting his talented novices in weak events in order to build confidence. For The Liquidator he certainly found a field that lacked any serious dangers. Consequently, it is easy to write this off as a race that The Liquidator should be winning easily and think little more of it however I am keen to be very positive. Unsurprisingly, he cruised through the race and quickened clear in effortless fashion, outclassing his floundering rivals, confirming the impression he left last season. Here it was his jumping that grabbed my attention. While he may lack the scope for a chaser he does not lack the athleticism and it is understandable if that is the ultimate aim. The Liquidator showed a natural aptitude for jumping at Carlisle, making the right shape over each hurdle, treating them with the right mix of respect and attack. His technique is such that it should stand up to the pressure of a stronger pace, in a higher quality field. Very few hurdling debutants will jump with such authority, therefore, while it might feel natural to step him up in distance the greatest advantage to be gained, from this asset, will be over the minimum trip.

I hope The Liquidator will have a campaign geared around the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle. He may lack the raw speed and quality of some but the ability to see out the trip strongly is crucial. There could be a niggling doubt about his suitability for Cheltenham given his two defeats last season came at the venue however one was on ground that played against him while the other was the toughest race of its kind hence it would be remiss of anyone to be too critical of that run and he has improved since.

If you already fancy The Liquidator for the Festival’s traditional curtain raiser the real concern is the prospect of him running instead in the Neptune over two miles and five furlongs. Soft ground round Carlisle would have been a stamina test in and of itself and The Liquidator powered clear up the run-in, with the margin of victory increasing the further he went. This run gave every indication that he would be just as effective, if not more so over further and when one looks back again at the Champion Bumper, he stormed up the Cheltenham hill in a race that traditionally suits stayers. Finally, David Pipe’s strength in the last season’s bumper division may prove significant as he could have an even more exciting prospect for the Supreme, potentially more exciting than any British trained hopeful, in the shape of Red Sherlock. He has a huge amount more to prove than The Liquidator, not least in the jumping department, but he showed an element of brilliance last season that his stablemate just lacks. With such a long way to go I am perhaps getting ahead of myself and I am arguably doing The Liquidator a disservice since even as the season progresses it will be difficult to find a more solid proposition for the top novice hurdle prizes.