Supreme Novices Update: River Maigue (Ascot)

Cheltenian has a number of entries this week and his return to action after a huge absence is imminent. If he can come through whichever test he takes in the coming days he could have a tilt at the Supreme and his current odds of 40/1 may appear generous. He was an extremely impressive winner of a memorable, at least it was for me, Champion Bumper but sadly injury has intervened since. It must be beyond frustrating for connections, with their patience surely tested, hopefully they can be rewarded with a return to form and a full season with him from next autumn.

Another memorable bumper personally, came this weekend last year on the Betfair Ascot Chase card. That day Royal Guardsman flew home, winning emphatically under Brendan Powell Jnr, his position as leading British hope in Cheltenham’s Champion Bumper cemented. It has been downhill for him since then however and, having switched from Colin Tizzard to his owner’s yard, this season has been largely disappointing with three relatively tame efforts over hurdles. Finishing third in Royal Guardsman’s Ascot bumper was the former point-to-point winner River Maigue who just failed to see the race out having been keen and possibly lacking experience. Unlike Royal Guardsman his career has been on the up since that race, this season shaping into a serious contender for the Supreme Novices' Hurdle.

Following his debut over hurdles in November, when he needed the run and the experience, River Miague went to Kempton on Boxing Day where he sauntered to victory, thrashing Champion Bumper runner up and fellow Supreme contender New Year’s Eve. There have been doubts over the form but the ease in which he won and the bullish reports from connections subsequently sent him near to the head of the Supreme Novices' ante-post market. He was recently tipped by Pricewise of the Racing Post, thereby solidifying his market position, and then on Saturday he was set the difficult task of giving exciting juvenile hurdler Far West 9lb, thanks to the weight-for-age allowance.

The race itself quickly turned into a farce as the leader, Boss In Boots, all but ran out leaving Far West in front and a dawdle of a gallop, to put it mildly. Jumping from both major protagonists was sound, Far West was particularly athletic when he needed to be four out and two out, but it wasn’t fluid with neither relishing the hurdles off such a slow pace. The race culminated in a three furlong sprint which Far West managed to win having been ideally placed in front by Ruby Walsh. Far West has been no stranger to making the running since coming over from France but he has been doing it in very testing conditions, whereas the ground had dried up somewhat on Saturday leaving the ground quicker he had ever faced, albeit still officially soft. Paul Nicholls’ charge had looked a strong stayer, often what you need in a Triumph Hurdle, but there were concerns expressed by many including myself over whether others at Cheltenham would have too much speed for him. Here, however, he seemingly dispelled those suggestions, quickening away nicely from a well regarded rival off a leisurely gallop. There are still slight doubts over his ability to handle much quicker ground, which he could face at the Festival, but he does appear to possess a significant blend of speed and stamina, along with a sound hurdling technique, and is not one to dismiss lightly for the juvenile hurdlers’ showpiece at the Festival.

Having praised Far West for producing a surprising level of speed there is the possibility he was flattered in that department. I have suggested after each of his runs over hurdles that River Maigue is likely to improve again once he tackles longer trips, especially given his pointing background where he won over three miles as a four-year-old. As a result, Far West’s ability to beat River Maigue for speed may not be the achievement it appeared on first viewing. Ruby Walsh failed to force Far West comfortably clear on the run-in, with the gap between first and second largely remaining the same. This might just have been a case of two future stayers sprinting.

Such was the ridiculous nature of the race on Saturday that it is almost impossible to learn anything about River Maigue’s chances in the Supreme. It could indicate that he is not a potential star, particularly over two miles, like a number of others heading for the Supreme, but that is still rather harsh as the race was so far removed from what he will face at Cheltenham it is hardly worth thinking about. Everything River Maigue has shown gives me the idea that he will be seen to best effect off a strong pace on ground quicker than soft. He is yet to face these conditions, hence it would be remiss to judge him too harshly on what he has done so far, despite failing to give out the wow factor of his stablemate My Tent Or Yours. Unlike so many of his rivals, who will have had an overly long break before Cheltenham, River Maigue will have had a recent run which is often a positive when it comes to the Festival. There is the possibility of leaving a horse’s race behind with a prep race too close to the Festival, but this quasi sprint was far from a gruelling test.

He is held in high esteem by Barry Geraghty and Nicky Henderson, while I have had a soft spot for him since his debut in this country behind Royal Guardsman in the aforementioned bumper, yet despite desperately trying to avoid dismissing River Maigue as a serious player and demean his achievements, this upcoming Supreme looks likely to fall to a horse that is exceptional over two miles. River Maigue is unlikely to prove that in my eyes and I expect he will struggle to finish in the places next month despite being a prospect I still want to follow closely. I am confident River Maigue has a bright future, primarily over fences, he is just a shade unfortunate to be among a particularly strong crop of novice hurdlers as in a normal year he would be a major threat to all.

Supreme Novices Update: My Tent Or Yours, Champagne Fever and Melodic Rendezvous

Betfair’s Super Saturday at Newbury lost some of its lustre with the decisions not to run Long Run or Simonsig in their respective prep races for the Festival. This left the card without a serious Arkle/Champion Chase contender and Silviniaco Conti with a seemingly straightforward task in the Denman Chase. Racing is rarely as simple as that though and it delivered more than enough excitement to make up for Nicky Henderson’s cautiousness. Ironically it was Henderson’s own My Tent Or Yours who really lit up Saturday’s card and the whole weekend. Prior to the Betfair Hurdle My Tent Or Yours was a rare beast in that his Cheltenham target was inevitable, evident from a very early stage, well it was until he did that!

After his scintillating display on Saturday My Tent Or Yours is quite rightly being talked up as a Champion Hurdle horse and he would not be out of place in that field, rather a deserved leading contender. The one issue left with Nicky Henderson’s charge, having sorted out his jumping at Huntingdon, was his free-going nature. He had been over-exuberant and keen in each run so far, the concern being whether he could find enough off the bridle after using up so much energy in a race against higher quality opposition. This frailty was harshly exposed by The New One in last season’s exceptional renewal of the Aintree Bumper. My Tent Or Yours is a better, stronger individual now but this was still a minor worry in a ‘competitive’ race like the Betfair Hurdle. As such I expected him to be settled in rear and pick off the other runners one by one, much like he had tried and failed to do on his last visit to Newbury. Maybe in the knowledge that there were few, if any, horses involved willing to set the pace or maybe just with supreme confidence AP McCoy crossed the tape, near enough, in front. From then on it was McCoy’s mission to settle him, My Tent Or Yours still pulled against his rider but McCoy was able drop him back as they left the home straight for the first time. In a seemingly ideal position on the inside rail, McCoy was in search of cover all the way up the back straight, just making sure he could keep a lid on all the enthusiasm and speed underneath him. As the field entered the home straight My Tent Or Yours had moved up into fifth and as commentator Richard Hoiles pointed out it was plain to see that McCoy was intent on slipstreaming the mare, Swing Bowler, for as long as he could. As the leaders drew away from the third last My Tent Or Yours was still pulling as he latched right onto the tail of Swing Bowler, before moving out to jump the second last. At that moment there was only one horse catching the eye and it became a matter of how far. Finally let go by McCoy at the last, the Desert Prince gelding rapped the hurdle as his acceleration got the better of him before powering clear under hands and heels, eventually easing down to a five length victory.

There is little more that he could have done here, his jumping was neat and fast, particularly at the second where he was unsighted thereby forcing him in close to the hurdle but he was extraordinarily nimble over it, thanks in no small part, I am sure, to AP McCoy’s intensive schooling. My Tent Or Yours found plenty off the bridle, putting an eight or nine length gap on the field as he was let down, before being eased. Despite the steady pace set the form could not look much stronger, with nothing in there holding it down and three thoroughly progressive handicappers filling the places. Cotton Mill had been well fancied for this, primarily on the back of his run in the Neptune where he was travelling nearly as well as Simonsig at the second last before running out in spectacular fashion. His impressive performance here does make the decision to run Cotton Mill over three miles straight after his Cheltenham calamity seem somewhat perplexing and with connections' desire to avoid heavy ground at all costs, the rain, sleet and snow which greeted us at Newbury on Saturday can’t have benefitted him. Neither was the race run especially to suit as he would have preferred a stronger pace, he lacked the speed of the winner, but then most jumpers do, and arguably Swing Bowler before his stamina kicked in, finishing strongly into second. There is clearly more to come, even before taking into account that this was his first run for 302 days, and he is an exciting prospect wherever he goes. A trip to the Champion Hurdle would not be unthinkable and were My Tent Or Yours to revert to novice company he would be a fascinating barometer of the Betfair Hurdle form. This could well be one of the strongest handicap hurdles of the whole season and it must be wise to consider strongly the likes of Swing Bowler and Dark Lover for the County Hurdle, Village Vic for the Coral Cup and even Caid Du Berlais for the Fred Winter, having shown up well for a long way despite running wide and being out of the weights.

I am struggling to find any negatives around My Tent Or Yours' chances for the Supreme Novices Hurdle and he is a worthy favourite, having usurped fellow JP McManus purchase Jezki. Ominously for his rivals, My Tent Or Yours has shown that he handles testing conditions while he is likely to improve for a quicker surface. He just has so much pace and as I suggested after his last run there was nothing in the Betfair Hurdle that could live with him. The only question left for me about My Tent Or Yours is whether something like the completely unexposed Un Atout is better, although the question that might prove more pertinent in the lead up to the Cheltenham Festival is whether it is Un Atout’s fellow Closutton inmate Hurricane Fly who is better?

Also in the care of Willie Mullins in Closutton, County Carlow is last season’s Champion Bumper winner Champagne Fever. Every indication was that he was going to prove to be substantially better over further than two miles, especially his defeat to Jezki at the start of the season where it looked only a matter of time before he was stepped up in trip on his way to Cheltenham for either the Neptune or Albert Bartlett novice hurdles. Yet on his first run over two-and-a-half miles he ran deplorably although that was down to a respiratory tract infection discovered subsequently. Understandably Willie Mullins gave him a reasonable break to recover from his illness and it was only after apparently impressing in a piece of work that the trainer decided to run him in the Deloitte Novice Hurdle (Leopardstown) on Saturday instead of the aforementioned Un Atout. This was over two miles and two furlongs and was assumed to be Champagne Fever’s prep for the Neptune, especially with the presence of Pique Sous and Mozoltov, alongside Un Atout, as Supreme Novice contenders. Such is the owner’s strength in the novice hurdle divisions, however, he already has leading fancies in the Neptune and Albert Bartlett. With the desire to have a runner in each Festival race, Champagne Fever’s winning form over two miles at Cheltenham and his proximity to long time Supreme Favourite Jezki on just his second start over hurdles, it is hard to argue Rich Ricci’s decision isn’t justified.

During Saturday’s race the fall, at the second, of main rival Waaheb handed Champagne Fever a relatively straightforward task, assuming he was none the worse for his previous infection. Under an aggressive ride from new pilot Paul Townend, this willing son of Stowaway set a tempo likely to expose any weakness in his opposition and bring his strength, stamina, to the fore. Aside from a not insignificant mistake at the first his jumping was accomplished and if he is to try similar tactics in the Supreme his jumping will need to be absolutely foot perfect. Here it nearly was as he took lengths out of his challengers at most obstacles, there is a special chaser in there waiting to get out and it is a shame we didn’t see him over fences this season. All bar Bright New Dawn were left toiling in behind Champagne Fever, whose prodigious galloping was too much for the rest to handle. Bright New Dawn did look a serious danger in on the run up to the last, having travelled sweetly with the guidance of Davy Russell, but the victory was sealed by the gangly grey with another fluent leap at the final flight, as he was always going to outstay his Dessie Hughes trained opponent.

Ruby Walsh has a very tough decision to make as he has the option of riding Dodging Bullets, for Paul Nicholls, and Pique Sous, Mozoltov and now Champagne Fever, for Willie Mullins, in the Supreme. I would suggest he rides Champagne Fever as there is no doubt in my mind that he is the best horse in that foursome, the worry would be whether he will be effective enough over the minimum trip. The Neptune looks made for him but with the presence of the inimitable Pont Alexandre, the Supreme it will have to be. Whether he can reverse early season form with Jezki is highly doubtful and Bright New Dawn gave that horse another boost having been eight lengths behind in the Future Champions Novice Hurdle. There is also the matter of whether Champagne Fever can hold off a number of far speedier types as he is sent for home, but such is his class I suspect there is every chance that he can hold off enough to be right there at the last and whatever happens it will be a tantalising spectacle.

On Sunday, we saw a highly anticipated clash between two more horses that, earlier in the season, I had expected to go down the Neptune novices hurdle route. Melodic Rendezvous and Puffin Billy were both comfortable winners on their last start, winning a grade 1 and a grade 2 respectively. Both are extremely well regarded by connections and both sets were convinced they were going to win at Exeter. Despite Melodic Rendezvous being the grade 1 winner it was Puffin Billy who was sent off the odds on favourite. Oliver Sherwood’s son of Heron Island had looked awesome in two bumpers and two novice hurdles to date, showing a combination of pace and power that marked him out as a danger to all with Cheltenham on the horizon, yet it was the locally trained (to Exeter) Melodic Rendezvous who came out comprehensively on top.

Nick Schofield was under the impression that Puffin Billy was more of a stayer than his mount Melodic Rendezvous. Believing he could beat him for speed Schofield tracked Puffin Billy nearly throughout the contest, only making his challenge at the last. The torrential rain in the morning had left the ground bordering on bottomless but both of the main protagonists in this five runner affair had experience on this sort of surface, as a result it was not expected to inconvenience either and it is hard to say it did. Melodic Rendezvous again jumped well throughout, he is a natural hurdler, and Puffin Billy seemingly improved his hurdling technique but one serious blunder two out probably sealed his fate. At the last the two were side by side but Leighton Aspell had been hard at Puffin Billy for most of the straight whilst Nick Schofield had been motionless on Melodic Rendezvous. Once asked he quickened away instantly, leaving the struggling Puffin Billy for dead. On the face of it this was an exciting performance from a progressive novice and he has definitely improved physically through the season (compared to when I saw him at Cheltenham anyway) but the manner in which Puffin Billy made such hard work of it from so far out suggested that there was something amiss with him and he was later discovered to be lame, thus explaining the lack of correlation between how he had run up until then and how he ran on Sunday.

It is far from ideal for Puffin Billy and his connections’ Cheltenham aspirations to run such a lacklustre race so near to the Festival but it would be wrong to judge him on this performance and he is still a hugely promising horse. It would also, therefore, be wrong to draw too many hard and fast conclusions about the winner Melodic Rendezvous. What I can reiterate is that he jumps well and he clearly has a dangerous turn of foot but he is yet to show me that he has the star potential that will be necessary to win this season’s Supreme. I was concerned after his grade 1 win that I could be underestimating him, and that is still the case but it is just too easy to knock the Tolworth form, while he was lucky in my opinion to win at Cheltenham and on hurdling debut he was defeated by Mr Mole who has just won a minor handicap off a mark of 126. Now, that fails to tell the whole story as Mr Mole is another promising sort who won emphatically but that has to be a concern for Melodic Rendezvous supporters, especially as it was on the quickest ground he has faced over hurdles. Were Cheltenham to be heavy I think he would suddenly become an interesting player but I expect he will struggle on a sounder surface against the calibre of opposition expected at the Festival.

Following Sunday’s win bookmakers shortened up Melodic Rendezvous into 8/1 generally for the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle. This was an overreaction especially as his only rival in the listed race was pronounced lame soon after. With a foot problem diagnosed and confirmed later this race at Exeter was an uninformative contest. It should not have affected his price to such an extent, I see him as a 12/1 shot at best especially when there are murmurings that he could switch to the Neptune on quicker ground.

Supreme Novices Update: Moscow Flyer Novice Hurdle review

We find ourselves with only five weeks until the big day. Before you know it the Festival will have been and gone, leaving us with thoughts of the upcoming flat season. While Aintree will be an entertaining interlude, the prospect of the Cheltenham Festival ending is grim, to say the least. In reality that is still some way off, for all that it won’t feel that way once it arrives, and there are still trial races to digest and consider. One such trial was the Moscow Flyer Novice Hurdle at Punchestown on Sunday won last year by Trifolium, an unlucky third in the Supreme, and previously by Mikael D’Haguenet for Willie Mullins. Mullins won the race once again this season but it would be bold to predict a similarly authoritative display at Cheltenham from this year’s winner, Mozoltov.

Mozoltov was among the best Irish bumper horses last season despite being soundly beaten three times. His defeat at the hands of Clonbanan Lad may give an indication to what level he is capable of reaching in novice hurdles but that would be unfair. Mozoltov has always been highly regarded but he did not quite have the form to back up his reputation until he ran his best race during the Punchestown Festival, where he finished close to Melodic Rendezvous but a significant distance behind Champagne Fever. That looks a level below what is required for a Supreme, despite how strongly or otherwise Melodic Rendezvous is fancied. This weekend’s run also has the appearance of being a level or two below what will be required. On his first outing this season Mozoltov demolished an atrocious field divulging little about himself in the process, other than he could jump. Again on Sunday his hurdling was fluent and brisk and he consistently came away from the hurdles faster than his better fancied rival Don Cossack, even when Davy Russell found the right stride. Willie Mullins said afterwards that the Supreme would be his next race, perhaps surprising given that he had been slightly under the radar in terms of novice hurdlers. There has not been the same hype and talk about him that has befallen some of his stablemates and maybe it was naive not to enter him into one’s calculations for the Festival opener. Yet Mullins did say at the start of the season that Mozoltov was a chaser in the making and even after this weekend I would struggle to make a case for him winning at Cheltenham based on what he’s done, only on what he might do.

The beaten favourite on Sunday was Don Cossack. He is surely destined to be better over further and his jumping can only hold him back over smaller obstacles, particularly at this trip where speed is paramount and slick jumping is necessitated. However, he already proved that he was inferior to the current standard bearer over two-and-a-half miles, Pont Alexandre, last time at Navan and it is difficult to envisage him recreating that awesome impression he left in bumpers, while hurdling over the minimum trip. In bumpers Don Cossack took people’s imagination, he left an indelible, powerful mark leading many to assume his ascent to the top over obstacles would be swift. On debut this season, there was little to dissuade this notion other than a certain sloppiness in his hurdling technique, but the ground was lamentable and it could be quickly brushed aside by connections and onlookers. Unfortunately, next time out against the imperious Neptune bound Pont Alexandre the problem appeared more chronic. There was certainly improvement in that area on Sunday but not enough to suggest that he will reach the heights over hurdles that once seemed inevitable.

The faith shown in him by his talented trainer is tough, possibly foolish, to ignore. This season might appear disappointing when one considers what was expected but Gordon Elliott always maintained he was a future chaser from the top drawer and this is hard to refute especially when taking his physique and running style into account. He is a powerful galloper who gives too much air to his hurdles in the manner of a chaser, with fences between him and his goal there may be a different animal waiting to be unleashed. Don Cossack is not the novice hurdler that many had hoped for but the seemingly limitless potential that he possessed in bumpers could be fulfilled over fences once he begins the job he was bred for. When put into the perspective that Don Cossack is effectively a three mile chaser, his hurdling career to date has been far from underwhelming.

Ned Buntline is another well regarded novice but of the well-fancied triumvirate at Punchestown he was the most disappointing. McCoy was at pains to hold him up right off the pace, his keen going tendencies were plain to see, but from last he moved stylishly into third following a big leap two out before fading relatively quickly as the front two quickened clear. Ned Buntline has not looked devoid of pace in his career, hence it could be that he struggled with the ground, failing to pick up as well as his rider might have expected. There will be improvement to come on a sounder surface but this display arguably rules out enough improvement to get competitive in what looks a competitive Supreme and it is possible to say that he, to some extent, holds the form down for the first and second.  A convincing win over Urano (subsequently beaten by the lesser known Legal Exit) on his last run prior to this weekend, Ned Buntline was back on track having shocked connections previously when beaten by Bright New Dawn at Fairyhouse. But, while an extremely useful and still somewhat unexposed novice hurdler, Bright New Dawn was comfortably dispatched by Jezki, current favourite for the Supreme, on his next start. Jessica Harrington’s five-year-old was unextended and Ned Buntline’s conqueror was all of eight lengths behind. Once his chance was gone Ned Buntline was caringly handled by McCoy here and he was only beaten six-and-a-half-lengths. If Mozoltov or even Don Cossack had pretensions on the Supreme crown they needed to pull further clear. The way Jezki has finished off his races over hurdles indicates that we are someway off seeing his limit whereas Mozoltov was all out to see off Don Cossack.

Willie Mullins’ charge may prove to be better than this, with Ruby Walsh suggesting afterwards that he wasn’t entirely enjoying the ground but he has only run so far on soft or heavy ground and his best performance, up until this weekend, had been on essentially unraceable ground at the Punchestown Festival. I wouldn’t be desperate to suggest that he will improve for the quicker ground normally prevalent at Cheltenham. Mozoltov may improve for the faster pace and bigger field in the Supreme, he was ridden quite aggressively at Punchestown and could be more impressive were he to be held up off a stronger gallop, but it is all about how much and while his price may appear tempting on the face of it now, once we have seen next weekend’s events it may well look on the mean side.