Supreme Novices Update: Zamdy Man

Zamdy Man was always a horse his connections had high hopes for. Venetia Williams’ substantial gelding was thrown straight into Grade 1 company to make his hurdling debut at Chepstow, in the Finale Hurdle, following a short spell on the flat. He was not disgraced, trailing home in fifth, though he failed to excite thereafter as a juvenile. Two encouraging second place finishes led to attempts at both the Cheltenham and Aintree Festivals where he was largely an irrelevance.

At the start of this season Zamdy Man put that experience to good use, making all in emphatic fashion at Ascot, collecting the same prize won by My Tent Or Yours when he defeated Taquin Du Seuil during the previous campaign. This renewal unsurprisingly lacked the quality of its predecessor and nothing those in behind have done since suggests it was anything other than a moderate novice hurdle but the winner was a long way clear of the second, in a different league altogether. A step up in class followed and on his first trip of the season to Haydock he took in a Listed novice event. Further success there inevitably pointed to loftier ambitions and Saturday saw him return to the Lancashire venue for the Skybet Supreme Trial Novices’ Hurdle.

This weekend Zamdy Man set a reasonable pace in front, far from a dawdle, yet unlike his other runs this season he was hassled for much of the way by the impossibly keen Meadowcroft Boy. Chief market rival and race favourite Un Temps Pour Tout made up ground to join Zamdy Man and his free-going partner at the fourth hurdle, Tom Scudamore on the favourite was possibly wary of how difficult it had been for others to pick up and pass Zamdy Man this season and or concerned about his mounts’ suitability for sharp tests over two miles. The heavy ground would have helped in that regard and he threw down a stern challenge to the winner but that perceived lack of speed, which had been noted from his Gallic days, ultimately cost him here. He certainly has a bright future and there is every reason to expect improvement upon his first start in this country, especially over a longer trip.

The winner of a “Supreme Trial” naturally deserves to come into the reckoning for the main event and there is plenty to enthuse about regarding Zamdy Man. He has matched or exceeded expectations each time he has raced this season, even as those expectations have risen. He is only five and there is plenty more time to progress particularly when one considers his size, Aidan Coleman suggested in Saturday’s aftermath that it had been this holding him back during his juvenile campaign as he was too weak. Jumping played a large part in Zamdy Man’s most recent triumph, appearing fluent throughout and when under most pressure from the runner-up he put in his most effective leaps. He has a willing and determined attitude, certainly not lacking guts, and will surely stay further given his admirable ability to keep finding off the bridle when in front. This does not mean he is ripe for an increase in distance though and it is absolutely an asset when it comes to the demanding nature of the Supreme.

Factoring all this in and his apparently generous price of 33/1, it may seem churlish to essentially dismiss Zamdy Man as a Supreme Novices contender but unless this year’s renewal is even worse than feared I struggle to see him getting involved. He relishes testing underfoot conditions, however even if Cheltenham was to break the habit of a lifetime and come up heavy I would still prefer a number of others, principally those on the brink of heading to the Neptune.

The distance back to the third at Haydock, Meadowcroft Boy, might give the illusion of a very strong race but he could never be a serious factor after his hard pulling antics, while Stand To Reason, who was further back in fourth, failed to handle the going and he has been widely overrated on the back of positive noises coming out of Seven Barrows. His debut success over hurdles was a weak event whilst he was gifted the race at Newbury as his rival appeared to have him covered before exiting at the final flight.

Zamdy Man likes to dominate his opposition and he is going to find that a near impossible task at Cheltenham, particularly at the pace he will be forced to travel. This son of Authorized has yet to prove he has the class to see off a field of that nature and an indication of his limitations could be his second win of the season where he was perhaps fortunate to beat Nicky Henderson’s Oscar Hoof. Zamdy Man stole six lengths at the start that day and was afforded a soft lead. In that scenario a more convincing display from Venetia Williams’ charge could be expected yet he was all out to beat his inexperienced foe by less than two lengths. That inexperience, it was his hurdling debut and he lacked Zamdy Man’s flat background, cost Oscar Hoof dearly in the latter stages and it was not necessarily his preferred trip either given the appreciation he showed for a more demanding stamina test next time out.  Oscar Hoof is well regarded and in time it may, on the face of it, look impressive form, but he is also seen by his trainer as a chaser. 

That was all the way back in November and Zamdy Man has evidently developed in the interim but he is highly unlikely, in my opinion, to have developed enough to pose a potent threat in March. 

Supreme Novices Update: Tolworth Hurdle & Vautour

Any hopes of a standout Supreme contender emerging from the murky waters of the two mile novice hurdling division were dashed this weekend as Vautour was forced to dig very deep at Punchestown, in a race he was expected dominate. That followed a protracted battle in the Grade 1 Tolworth Hurdle between a couple of unlikely Supreme contenders for Nicky Henderson, particularly the winner who is destined to head elsewhere.

The Tolworth was a chance for The Liquidator to confirm the abundant promise he had shown in his opening two starts over hurdles. He had annihilated a small but seemingly competitive field at Cheltenham, his jumping again taking the eye as a rare asset, one that could take him to the top of the novice hurdling ranks. He was heavily backed to produce something close to his Cheltenham display against stronger opposition, in ground that was not going to inconvenience him, however the exuberance and brilliant hurdling style which characterised his previous goes over obstacles appeared to leave him as soon as he jumped the second.

I had been hugely taken with The Liquidator at Cheltenham, the performance, along with his Grade 1 bumper form left me in no doubt at the time that he deserved to be early favourite for the Festival’s opening race. He soon was after the great white hope, West Wizard met with defeat at Kempton. It was not long though before genuine excuses arrived for those in behind David Pipe’s charge and the worth of that form came into question. I certainly had to re-evaluate just how good that performance was, nonetheless even if The Liquidator isn’t quite the force he looked in his defeat of Sea Lord that does not explain the lifeless display in the rearranged Tolworth. The fact it was rearranged might be key as David Pipe expressed concerns over the sharp nature of Kempton, especially compared to Sandown, but such inadequacies are far from enough for me to believe he gave anything like his true running. Excuses are bound to be found and I am willing to forgive this aberration as he still has the profile of a potential Supreme Novices’ Hurdle winner, though he has lost his tag as a solid proposition and Saturday showed his all-important hurdling technique is not unimpeachable.

Tom Scudamore’s efforts, on The Liquidator, to make the Tolworth a true test at two miles played into the hands of the eventual winner, Royal Boy, especially in the testing conditions. I had been very keen on the son of Lavirco in these pages last season and I suspect he may have beaten Melodic Rendezvous at Cheltenham were it not for an understandably conservative ride on his hurdling debut. He then re-opposed Jeremy Scott’s star in last year’s Tolworth where his jumping fell apart as he tried to make all. That was his final run of the 2012/13 season and little he had done this time around suggested he was soon to go two places better.  A swiftly aborted chase campaign, after an inexplicably lamentable first attempt, was followed by an admittedly smooth and impressive return to hurdling but it was over two-miles-and-six furlongs.

Such a trip was assumed to be the making of him and graded contests in excess of two-and-a-half miles was the natural way to go. The Neptune Investment Management Novices' Hurdle at Warwick on the same day as the rescheduled Tolworth was the intended destination until conditions turned heavy and they were mindful of a damaging slog reminiscent of that faced by their own Mossley in the same race three years ago. They knew Royal Boy didn’t lack pace based on his runs last season and his extra experience and stamina proved invaluable as he outstayed his raw stablemate. Despite the rest of the field probably having reasons for not showing themselves in their best light Royal Boy will be seen to best effect over further and this was a smart performance in the circumstances, one that should not be too quickly dismissed in the build up to his inevitable run on the second day of the Festival.   

If Nicky Henderson is to have serious contender in this season’s Supreme Novices’ Hurdle it will likely be Saturday’s runner-up, Josses Hill. He is one I am particularly excited about, albeit more for the future and over fences than for the upcoming Cheltenham showpiece. He did well to win first time over hurdles at Newbury as big, slow, careful leaps cost him momentum. It was this lack of speed that left question marks over his suitability for high class hurdling contests over the minimum trip. Experience will help in this regard and while his careful style was still in evidence at Kempton, there were signs of improvement; his bold leap at the last nearly sealed the race. If he can get his act together over hurdles and continue his rapid progression it would be folly to rule him out yet. I imagine he will be given the opportunity to prove himself once more before March, with the listed novices’ hurdle at Exeter in early February sticking out as a likely option.  

Back in third was the Willie Mullins representative, Upazo, who had probably suffered for travelling to and from Sandown for the original Tolworth. He was somewhat laboured in his performance even if nothing he had done previously suggested he would be up to winning a Grade 1. I had expected more from Garde La Victoire, his loss to Ballyalton had felt like strong form but defeats for the pair subsequently must leave one with reservations. Philip Hobbs’ gelding was outpaced here and as I suggested after his Cheltenham reverse he might be a candidate for a step up in trip.

The lack of authority stamped on this weekend’s Supreme ‘trials’ has led to a greater air of confidence around Irving but the distance Prince Siegfried was beaten will not have added any substance to style of Paul Nicholls’ “Concorde”. Prince Siegfried was essentially alongside Irving at the last when he came down during their meeting at Ascot.  It was quite a heavy fall however and no significant gap between runs hence there is a chance he was still feeling the effects of that tumble.

Over in Ireland, Vautour, the horse who had recently been backed into 8/1 favouritism for the Supreme, made his fourth start over hurdles (second for Willie Mullins). One could be nothing other than positive about his first run in Ireland and there were no worries about a rise in class, he had experience, he looked readymade for it. Such was the impression he left at Navan he was confidently expected to take this in his stride. The second that day had come out and won convincingly since while the extraordinary market support for the son of Robin Des Champs and the vibes coming out of Closutton indicated we were about to witness something special. Finally a novice was about to lay a benchmark that would be daunting for any prospective challengers.

Sadly, expectations were not met, rather, disappointment was felt in spite of a hard fought and well deserved victory for Vautour and Paul Townend. Willie Mullins may have been deflated, as Vautour clearly shows a great deal at home, but calls for a trip to the Neptune are a little hasty. He was keener than ideal from the off, a typical Supreme gallop would soon sort that out, finding a slow(ish) pace on slow ground against him. He would have been well schooled in France and again his jumping was sound, measuring all, bar the last, flights well. This was harder than usual given the waywardness of Chicago in front, who I am sure was a frustrating presence for Paul Townend. As the race developed he would drift out to the left on approach to the hurdle before jumping right, across Vautour, who had inevitably made ground on the leader having kept in a straight line. From about halfway Chicago was also struggling to maintain the pace he was trying to set and as a result kept dropping back into Vautour’s path, before picking up again. Paul Townend then found himself locked in on the rail as Mr Fiftyone kept on the outside of the struggling leader. The young jockey did extremely well to pull Vautour back from in behind the leader prior to the home turn thereby allowing him to find his proper stride and quicken past.

He would have preferred a lead for longer as once in the clear he seemed to idle, inviting the onslaught from the eventual second, Western Boy. This lack of concentration contributed to his stuttering take off at the final hurdle and Western Boy’s well timed charge was on the brink of success. As he moved alongside Vautour the favourite found more and saw him off with more to spare than the bare margin suggested. I imagine everything comes more easily to this French bred five-year-old on a quicker surface, Saturday was not an enjoyable scenario and he was feeling the effects on the run-in. A race like the Supreme will provide him with a very different test, his opposition would of course be far stronger, but conditions should be more suitable and he does not lack speed or the necessary hurdling attributes to be competitive. Some firms have pushed his price out from 8/1 to 10/1 which remains far too short, yet the Mullins team usually know what they have on their hands and that price could be more an indication of what he will achieve than what he has achieved.

A Neptune/Albert Bartlett Update: Briar Hill

Even after his surprise but emphatic success in the Champion Bumper, the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle was a remote prospect for Briar Hill. He shaped like a potential stayer on his debut at Thurles and his homework clearly indicated he would be seen to best effect over a trip further than the minimum, hence his 25/1 SP at Cheltenham. 

As is compulsory, he was immediately installed as favourite for the following (now this) season’s Supreme and his stablemate, Champagne Fever’s exploits would have done nothing to dampen the enthusiasm of those tempted.

Briar Hill matched Champagne Fever’s early hurdling career in that he followed a maiden hurdle with a tilt at a Grade 1 before taking in the Slaney Novice Hurdle. Unlike Champagne Fever his maiden was over two-miles-two furlongs and his Grade 1 was over two-miles-four. 

Every time Willie Mullins or Ruby Walsh are questioned about Briar Hill the term lazy is used and even against those vastly inferior rivals faced at Wexford in his maiden hurdle, such characteristics were apparent. 

On board, Ruby Walsh felt it best to keep the tactics simple and set off in front, but early on Briar Hill had to be encouraged to maintain the pace he was setting. As the race developed his class told and he drew clear without much effort. Despite the winning margin it was not a scintillating display and eye-catching notions such as push button acceleration were absent. However, that is rarely what’s needed and crucially his hurdling technique was extremely encouraging.

The Grade 1 Navan Novice Hurdle was a farcical affair with only a single rival for Briar Hill and, determined not to rely on a superior sprint finish to his opponent, Ruby Walsh set off to make the running once more. A loss of concentration at the third last allowed Azorian to look a bigger danger than he actually was but essentially his jumping impressed again. Worryingly, he took far more rousting, and from an earlier stage, than one would expect of such a high class prospect, with accusations of laziness appearing well placed. 

He eventually responded willingly, picking up in striking fashion. Azorian had arguably thrown his race away earlier on by, all but, running out on the bend approaching the sixth flight leaving doubts about the merit of Briar Hill’s performance. Similar sentiments apply to Sunday given his main rival in form terms, Very Wood, another owned by the Gigginstown operation, threw away his chance with an error strewn round of jumping. In spite of this Very Wood still finished within four lengths of Willie Mullins’ charge, a cause for concern even if Briar Hill’s laziness was even more in evidence on this occasion.

Sunday’s Slaney Novice Hurdle was another ominously small field with only three runners and for the first time since the Champion Bumper, Ruby Walsh received a lead on Briar Hill as he settled his mount in between the leader Apache Jack and Very Wood. 

Apache Jack had faced defeat in three maiden hurdles prior to breaking his duck convincingly at the start of December. Until that point, as a full brother to Black Jack Ketchum, he had been largely disappointing and even accounting for his most recent exploits the Oscar gelding was still by far the least fancied of the trio. 

Nonetheless he gave Briar Hill and his connections their biggest scare to date thanks to a typically well-judged ride from the front forcing the idle odds-on favourite to pull out almost all the stops. Ruby Walsh had to get serious with his mount all of four furlongs out in order to close the concerning gap between him and the leader. 

He made up the ground in good time, though in the straight he had to be hard ridden to assert his superiority over Apache Jack. Once he had jumped across the runner-up at the final hurdle the race was fundamentally over despite Briar Hill having to feel the force of the whip and he pulled away by a couple of lengths, albeit only in the dying strides.

Subsequent to the race Willie Mullins indicated they would only be considering the Neptune and Albert Bartlett novice hurdles for the six-year-old and that came as no surprise. Briar Hill has done precious little quickly in his hurdling career and it is hard to envisage him mixing it with the very best over two miles on decent ground at Cheltenham even if they are a somewhat moderate bunch. 

In fact, I have similar concerns about him for the Neptune. He is bred to be a stayer, as Mullins has reiterated, the son of Shantou is out of a sister to Boston Bob and already their careers appear destined to follow similar paths. Boston Bob took in the Navan Novice Hurdle on his way to a gallant second place finish in the Albert Bartlett, where he doggedly tried in vain to reel in a bold jumping front runner. I can see something eerily similar occurring this season except Briar Hill may overhaul this year’s front runner, Kings Palace.

Each time Briar Hill has taken to the track this season he has run as if further will suit, he needs to be wound up into full stride and over three miles at Cheltenham he will have enough time. His galloping style will be suited by a consistently strong pace and Kings Palace will deliver that in the longer race. 

There are likely to be far more doubts in the Neptune, last year for instance the emphasis, as it often is, was all on speed. When searching for a Neptune winner I like to find a horse with enough pace for two miles who, once out of their novice season, will have campaigns geared around the Champion Hurdle or Arkle. I cannot see that being the case with Briar Hill, much like Boston Bob, the RSA already picks itself as a longer term target. A recent winner like First Lieutenant may lead you to question such a view but Rock On Ruby was unlucky in that race and in fairness to the Mouse Morris trained gelding he had already won a Grade 1 hurdle at two miles.

For me, Briar Hill lacks the gears for any Championship race over less than three miles and the Albert Bartlett is the obvious place to go. Willie Mullins does not see it that way however and, as much as I would like to, his participation in the Neptune cannot be ruled out. What could keep him from stepping up in trip is his jumping. 

All the focus surrounding Briar Hill has been on his lackadaisical attitude, his unwillingness to do more than is necessary. Some have branded him slow, others very slow but that is harsh to an extent and his jumping proficiency has been missed. He is athletic, nimble and eager to attack the obstacle when required. Such assets are invaluable over shorter trips and whereas Mullins’ other leading novice Faugheen, who will surely go where Sunday’s winner doesn’t, has looked clumsy, Briar Hill has looked accomplished.

It may be that we are too easily sucked into believing Briar Hill is unconscionably lazy, he could just be producing what he is capable of. It may also be that we are too quick to base judgements on a horse’s displays in very small field, slowly run affairs when his best performance came in a big field off a frenetic pace. 

When reflecting on Sunday’s performance it should then be taken into account that Briar Hill saw off two well-regarded opponents, receiving seven and ten pounds respectively, in a race not run to suit. The Neptune then, run over one furlong further, suddenly appears more feasible. It would be difficult to argue he does not deserve another chance to prove his worth, and more importantly speed, for less demanding tests but when breeding, attitude, race make-up and ground conditions are considered the Albert Bartlett remains tailor-made for this unbeaten Festival winner.