Monday, January 20, 2014

Supreme Novices Update: Zamdy Man

Zamdy Man was always a horse his connections had high hopes for. Venetia Williams’ substantial gelding was thrown straight into Grade 1 company to make his hurdling debut at Chepstow, in the Finale Hurdle, following a short spell on the flat. He was not disgraced, trailing home in fifth, though he failed to excite thereafter as a juvenile. Two encouraging second place finishes led to attempts at both the Cheltenham and Aintree Festivals where he was largely an irrelevance.

At the start of this season Zamdy Man put that experience to good use, making all in emphatic fashion at Ascot, collecting the same prize won by My Tent Or Yours when he defeated Taquin Du Seuil during the previous campaign. This renewal unsurprisingly lacked the quality of its predecessor and nothing those in behind have done since suggests it was anything other than a moderate novice hurdle but the winner was a long way clear of the second, in a different league altogether. A step up in class followed and on his first trip of the season to Haydock he took in a Listed novice event. Further success there inevitably pointed to loftier ambitions and Saturday saw him return to the Lancashire venue for the Skybet Supreme Trial Novices’ Hurdle.

This weekend Zamdy Man set a reasonable pace in front, far from a dawdle, yet unlike his other runs this season he was hassled for much of the way by the impossibly keen Meadowcroft Boy. Chief market rival and race favourite Un Temps Pour Tout made up ground to join Zamdy Man and his free-going partner at the fourth hurdle, Tom Scudamore on the favourite was possibly wary of how difficult it had been for others to pick up and pass Zamdy Man this season and or concerned about his mounts’ suitability for sharp tests over two miles. The heavy ground would have helped in that regard and he threw down a stern challenge to the winner but that perceived lack of speed, which had been noted from his Gallic days, ultimately cost him here. He certainly has a bright future and there is every reason to expect improvement upon his first start in this country, especially over a longer trip.

The winner of a “Supreme Trial” naturally deserves to come into the reckoning for the main event and there is plenty to enthuse about regarding Zamdy Man. He has matched or exceeded expectations each time he has raced this season, even as those expectations have risen. He is only five and there is plenty more time to progress particularly when one considers his size, Aidan Coleman suggested in Saturday’s aftermath that it had been this holding him back during his juvenile campaign as he was too weak. Jumping played a large part in Zamdy Man’s most recent triumph, appearing fluent throughout and when under most pressure from the runner-up he put in his most effective leaps. He has a willing and determined attitude, certainly not lacking guts, and will surely stay further given his admirable ability to keep finding off the bridle when in front. This does not mean he is ripe for an increase in distance though and it is absolutely an asset when it comes to the demanding nature of the Supreme.

Factoring all this in and his apparently generous price of 33/1, it may seem churlish to essentially dismiss Zamdy Man as a Supreme Novices contender but unless this year’s renewal is even worse than feared I struggle to see him getting involved. He relishes testing underfoot conditions, however even if Cheltenham was to break the habit of a lifetime and come up heavy I would still prefer a number of others, principally those on the brink of heading to the Neptune.

The distance back to the third at Haydock, Meadowcroft Boy, might give the illusion of a very strong race but he could never be a serious factor after his hard pulling antics, while Stand To Reason, who was further back in fourth, failed to handle the going and he has been widely overrated on the back of positive noises coming out of Seven Barrows. His debut success over hurdles was a weak event whilst he was gifted the race at Newbury as his rival appeared to have him covered before exiting at the final flight.

Zamdy Man likes to dominate his opposition and he is going to find that a near impossible task at Cheltenham, particularly at the pace he will be forced to travel. This son of Authorized has yet to prove he has the class to see off a field of that nature and an indication of his limitations could be his second win of the season where he was perhaps fortunate to beat Nicky Henderson’s Oscar Hoof. Zamdy Man stole six lengths at the start that day and was afforded a soft lead. In that scenario a more convincing display from Venetia Williams’ charge could be expected yet he was all out to beat his inexperienced foe by less than two lengths. That inexperience, it was his hurdling debut and he lacked Zamdy Man’s flat background, cost Oscar Hoof dearly in the latter stages and it was not necessarily his preferred trip either given the appreciation he showed for a more demanding stamina test next time out.  Oscar Hoof is well regarded and in time it may, on the face of it, look impressive form, but he is also seen by his trainer as a chaser. 

That was all the way back in November and Zamdy Man has evidently developed in the interim but he is highly unlikely, in my opinion, to have developed enough to pose a potent threat in March. 

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