Supreme Novices Update: My Tent Or Yours, Champagne Fever and Melodic Rendezvous

Betfair’s Super Saturday at Newbury lost some of its lustre with the decisions not to run Long Run or Simonsig in their respective prep races for the Festival. This left the card without a serious Arkle/Champion Chase contender and Silviniaco Conti with a seemingly straightforward task in the Denman Chase. Racing is rarely as simple as that though and it delivered more than enough excitement to make up for Nicky Henderson’s cautiousness. Ironically it was Henderson’s own My Tent Or Yours who really lit up Saturday’s card and the whole weekend. Prior to the Betfair Hurdle My Tent Or Yours was a rare beast in that his Cheltenham target was inevitable, evident from a very early stage, well it was until he did that!

After his scintillating display on Saturday My Tent Or Yours is quite rightly being talked up as a Champion Hurdle horse and he would not be out of place in that field, rather a deserved leading contender. The one issue left with Nicky Henderson’s charge, having sorted out his jumping at Huntingdon, was his free-going nature. He had been over-exuberant and keen in each run so far, the concern being whether he could find enough off the bridle after using up so much energy in a race against higher quality opposition. This frailty was harshly exposed by The New One in last season’s exceptional renewal of the Aintree Bumper. My Tent Or Yours is a better, stronger individual now but this was still a minor worry in a ‘competitive’ race like the Betfair Hurdle. As such I expected him to be settled in rear and pick off the other runners one by one, much like he had tried and failed to do on his last visit to Newbury. Maybe in the knowledge that there were few, if any, horses involved willing to set the pace or maybe just with supreme confidence AP McCoy crossed the tape, near enough, in front. From then on it was McCoy’s mission to settle him, My Tent Or Yours still pulled against his rider but McCoy was able drop him back as they left the home straight for the first time. In a seemingly ideal position on the inside rail, McCoy was in search of cover all the way up the back straight, just making sure he could keep a lid on all the enthusiasm and speed underneath him. As the field entered the home straight My Tent Or Yours had moved up into fifth and as commentator Richard Hoiles pointed out it was plain to see that McCoy was intent on slipstreaming the mare, Swing Bowler, for as long as he could. As the leaders drew away from the third last My Tent Or Yours was still pulling as he latched right onto the tail of Swing Bowler, before moving out to jump the second last. At that moment there was only one horse catching the eye and it became a matter of how far. Finally let go by McCoy at the last, the Desert Prince gelding rapped the hurdle as his acceleration got the better of him before powering clear under hands and heels, eventually easing down to a five length victory.

There is little more that he could have done here, his jumping was neat and fast, particularly at the second where he was unsighted thereby forcing him in close to the hurdle but he was extraordinarily nimble over it, thanks in no small part, I am sure, to AP McCoy’s intensive schooling. My Tent Or Yours found plenty off the bridle, putting an eight or nine length gap on the field as he was let down, before being eased. Despite the steady pace set the form could not look much stronger, with nothing in there holding it down and three thoroughly progressive handicappers filling the places. Cotton Mill had been well fancied for this, primarily on the back of his run in the Neptune where he was travelling nearly as well as Simonsig at the second last before running out in spectacular fashion. His impressive performance here does make the decision to run Cotton Mill over three miles straight after his Cheltenham calamity seem somewhat perplexing and with connections' desire to avoid heavy ground at all costs, the rain, sleet and snow which greeted us at Newbury on Saturday can’t have benefitted him. Neither was the race run especially to suit as he would have preferred a stronger pace, he lacked the speed of the winner, but then most jumpers do, and arguably Swing Bowler before his stamina kicked in, finishing strongly into second. There is clearly more to come, even before taking into account that this was his first run for 302 days, and he is an exciting prospect wherever he goes. A trip to the Champion Hurdle would not be unthinkable and were My Tent Or Yours to revert to novice company he would be a fascinating barometer of the Betfair Hurdle form. This could well be one of the strongest handicap hurdles of the whole season and it must be wise to consider strongly the likes of Swing Bowler and Dark Lover for the County Hurdle, Village Vic for the Coral Cup and even Caid Du Berlais for the Fred Winter, having shown up well for a long way despite running wide and being out of the weights.

I am struggling to find any negatives around My Tent Or Yours' chances for the Supreme Novices Hurdle and he is a worthy favourite, having usurped fellow JP McManus purchase Jezki. Ominously for his rivals, My Tent Or Yours has shown that he handles testing conditions while he is likely to improve for a quicker surface. He just has so much pace and as I suggested after his last run there was nothing in the Betfair Hurdle that could live with him. The only question left for me about My Tent Or Yours is whether something like the completely unexposed Un Atout is better, although the question that might prove more pertinent in the lead up to the Cheltenham Festival is whether it is Un Atout’s fellow Closutton inmate Hurricane Fly who is better?

Also in the care of Willie Mullins in Closutton, County Carlow is last season’s Champion Bumper winner Champagne Fever. Every indication was that he was going to prove to be substantially better over further than two miles, especially his defeat to Jezki at the start of the season where it looked only a matter of time before he was stepped up in trip on his way to Cheltenham for either the Neptune or Albert Bartlett novice hurdles. Yet on his first run over two-and-a-half miles he ran deplorably although that was down to a respiratory tract infection discovered subsequently. Understandably Willie Mullins gave him a reasonable break to recover from his illness and it was only after apparently impressing in a piece of work that the trainer decided to run him in the Deloitte Novice Hurdle (Leopardstown) on Saturday instead of the aforementioned Un Atout. This was over two miles and two furlongs and was assumed to be Champagne Fever’s prep for the Neptune, especially with the presence of Pique Sous and Mozoltov, alongside Un Atout, as Supreme Novice contenders. Such is the owner’s strength in the novice hurdle divisions, however, he already has leading fancies in the Neptune and Albert Bartlett. With the desire to have a runner in each Festival race, Champagne Fever’s winning form over two miles at Cheltenham and his proximity to long time Supreme Favourite Jezki on just his second start over hurdles, it is hard to argue Rich Ricci’s decision isn’t justified.

During Saturday’s race the fall, at the second, of main rival Waaheb handed Champagne Fever a relatively straightforward task, assuming he was none the worse for his previous infection. Under an aggressive ride from new pilot Paul Townend, this willing son of Stowaway set a tempo likely to expose any weakness in his opposition and bring his strength, stamina, to the fore. Aside from a not insignificant mistake at the first his jumping was accomplished and if he is to try similar tactics in the Supreme his jumping will need to be absolutely foot perfect. Here it nearly was as he took lengths out of his challengers at most obstacles, there is a special chaser in there waiting to get out and it is a shame we didn’t see him over fences this season. All bar Bright New Dawn were left toiling in behind Champagne Fever, whose prodigious galloping was too much for the rest to handle. Bright New Dawn did look a serious danger in on the run up to the last, having travelled sweetly with the guidance of Davy Russell, but the victory was sealed by the gangly grey with another fluent leap at the final flight, as he was always going to outstay his Dessie Hughes trained opponent.

Ruby Walsh has a very tough decision to make as he has the option of riding Dodging Bullets, for Paul Nicholls, and Pique Sous, Mozoltov and now Champagne Fever, for Willie Mullins, in the Supreme. I would suggest he rides Champagne Fever as there is no doubt in my mind that he is the best horse in that foursome, the worry would be whether he will be effective enough over the minimum trip. The Neptune looks made for him but with the presence of the inimitable Pont Alexandre, the Supreme it will have to be. Whether he can reverse early season form with Jezki is highly doubtful and Bright New Dawn gave that horse another boost having been eight lengths behind in the Future Champions Novice Hurdle. There is also the matter of whether Champagne Fever can hold off a number of far speedier types as he is sent for home, but such is his class I suspect there is every chance that he can hold off enough to be right there at the last and whatever happens it will be a tantalising spectacle.

On Sunday, we saw a highly anticipated clash between two more horses that, earlier in the season, I had expected to go down the Neptune novices hurdle route. Melodic Rendezvous and Puffin Billy were both comfortable winners on their last start, winning a grade 1 and a grade 2 respectively. Both are extremely well regarded by connections and both sets were convinced they were going to win at Exeter. Despite Melodic Rendezvous being the grade 1 winner it was Puffin Billy who was sent off the odds on favourite. Oliver Sherwood’s son of Heron Island had looked awesome in two bumpers and two novice hurdles to date, showing a combination of pace and power that marked him out as a danger to all with Cheltenham on the horizon, yet it was the locally trained (to Exeter) Melodic Rendezvous who came out comprehensively on top.

Nick Schofield was under the impression that Puffin Billy was more of a stayer than his mount Melodic Rendezvous. Believing he could beat him for speed Schofield tracked Puffin Billy nearly throughout the contest, only making his challenge at the last. The torrential rain in the morning had left the ground bordering on bottomless but both of the main protagonists in this five runner affair had experience on this sort of surface, as a result it was not expected to inconvenience either and it is hard to say it did. Melodic Rendezvous again jumped well throughout, he is a natural hurdler, and Puffin Billy seemingly improved his hurdling technique but one serious blunder two out probably sealed his fate. At the last the two were side by side but Leighton Aspell had been hard at Puffin Billy for most of the straight whilst Nick Schofield had been motionless on Melodic Rendezvous. Once asked he quickened away instantly, leaving the struggling Puffin Billy for dead. On the face of it this was an exciting performance from a progressive novice and he has definitely improved physically through the season (compared to when I saw him at Cheltenham anyway) but the manner in which Puffin Billy made such hard work of it from so far out suggested that there was something amiss with him and he was later discovered to be lame, thus explaining the lack of correlation between how he had run up until then and how he ran on Sunday.

It is far from ideal for Puffin Billy and his connections’ Cheltenham aspirations to run such a lacklustre race so near to the Festival but it would be wrong to judge him on this performance and he is still a hugely promising horse. It would also, therefore, be wrong to draw too many hard and fast conclusions about the winner Melodic Rendezvous. What I can reiterate is that he jumps well and he clearly has a dangerous turn of foot but he is yet to show me that he has the star potential that will be necessary to win this season’s Supreme. I was concerned after his grade 1 win that I could be underestimating him, and that is still the case but it is just too easy to knock the Tolworth form, while he was lucky in my opinion to win at Cheltenham and on hurdling debut he was defeated by Mr Mole who has just won a minor handicap off a mark of 126. Now, that fails to tell the whole story as Mr Mole is another promising sort who won emphatically but that has to be a concern for Melodic Rendezvous supporters, especially as it was on the quickest ground he has faced over hurdles. Were Cheltenham to be heavy I think he would suddenly become an interesting player but I expect he will struggle on a sounder surface against the calibre of opposition expected at the Festival.

Following Sunday’s win bookmakers shortened up Melodic Rendezvous into 8/1 generally for the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle. This was an overreaction especially as his only rival in the listed race was pronounced lame soon after. With a foot problem diagnosed and confirmed later this race at Exeter was an uninformative contest. It should not have affected his price to such an extent, I see him as a 12/1 shot at best especially when there are murmurings that he could switch to the Neptune on quicker ground.

Supreme Novices Update: Christmas (Jezki, Puffin Billy and My Tent Or Yours)

The densely packed festive period offered up its usual share of brilliant racing. Kempton played its part but Leopardstown stood out with quality on show day after day with the highlight, undoubtedly, being the Lexus Chase where Tidal Bay pulled the rug from under the feet of the crème de la crème of Ireland’s staying chasers. The best Irish novice hurdlers were left to their own devices in the Grade 1 Future Champions Novice Hurdle and Jezki, who already had the strongest novice form available, came out on top in decisive fashion.

Jezki’s defeat of last season’s premier bumper horse, Champagne Fever, in the Royal Bond marked him out as the best two mile novice hurdler around. Despite jumping left handed on occasion he displayed his considerable ability and, as I mentioned in the Royal Bond piece, bookmakers were generous with their antepost prices following the race. He is now around the price he should have been after beating Champagne Fever and Zuzka, who boosted the form with a runaway victory at Leopardstown on Saturday. She clearly appreciated the step up in trip, an appreciation likely to be shared by her aforementioned stablemate.

Jezki came up against a deep field last week, with the well regarded trio of Waaheb, Sizing Rio and Bright New Dawn his main dangers. Usual partner Barry Geraghty was over at Kempton riding the great Simonsig so Robbie Power took over and with Henderson likely to offer Geraghty a choice of rides, I expect Power will take the mount in March. Jezki settled nicely off the strong pace, set by perennial front runner Sizing Rio, but once again his jumping lacked fluency through the race. In fairness, he only really lost ground at the fifth last, which he ploughed through, and it could just be his quick style is more effective than it is pleasing to the eye. Better ground may see an improvement in that department and connections have been adamant that a sounder surface is what he needs but it is worth bearing in mind. Through Thursday’s race he was always in the best position, able to track the leaders, and it was evident how well he was travelling. Power even took a pull on the home turn as he cantered all over the field, before pulling away easily on approach to the last, eventually scoring by six lengths from an unlucky Waaheb. Jessica Harrington must be thrilled with her charge and he is a worthy Supreme favourite at this stage, only something special could depose him between now and March.

As mentioned above, Waaheb was to a certain extent unlucky. It is hard to argue that he would have won the race, seeing as Jezki had any amount to spare, but there is no doubt he would have been closer without the glaring error two out. He was moving up nicely alongside the winner, while perhaps not travelling as strongly, and McCoy was keen to find a gain momentum over the hurdle but Waaheb stuttered losing the pair at least three lengths, costing them any chance of fighting out the finish with the winner. McCoy wasn’t hard on Waaheb from then on, with his innate ability allowing him to take second place comfortably from Bright New Dawn. His trainer Dermot Weld had been concerned that inexperience would find him out in this grade and, despite running well in second, it did. There must be significant improvement to come, particularly on better ground and perhaps not on such a stiff track. While it is hard to see him reversing form with Jezki this season, even with a three pound pull in the weights, pushing him out to 20/1 for the Supreme is an overreaction.

The rest of the important Supreme Novices related action came from England with a number of noteworthy performances. The first of which came from Puffin Billy at Ascot (21/12/2012), in the Grade 2 Kennel Gate Novices hurdle. Puffin Billy was immense in his two bumpers, especially under a penalty at Ascot where he cruised to victory at Ascot by nine lengths. His trainer had understandably been talking him up for a while and much was expected on his hurdling debut at Newbury. With the prevailing conditions at the moment it is a plus that Puffin Billy is able to handle, even thrive in, testing ground and this is what he did at Newbury, and even more so at Ascot. Leighton Aspell tried to settle Puffin Billy in rear of the large field at Newbury, but the pace was slow to non-existent hence he was far too keen, pulling violently for his head, eventually taking his rider to the front at the first. Aspell managed to settle him down in around third place after that, often having to be reined back at the hurdles as his jumping continuously carried him forward. On the home turn Puffin Billy inevitably tanked his way to the front, from which point he was never headed, drawing away stylishly from an unconsidered outsider and the very promising Sound Investment. Oliver Sherwood’s son of Heron Island made one slight error in the back straight and he got in close to the last once his rider let him down but otherwise his hurdling was fluent. The same could not be said once upped in class at Ascot but the end result was just as impressive, if not more so.

With Leighton Aspell serving his ban Geraghty took over the ride on Puffin Billy, he had ridden him previously on his last visit to Ascot in the bumper. There were only four runners in this grade 2 and Puffin Billy was the odds on favourite. He was expected to win easily, and with market rival Meganisi disappointing it would have been surprising had he not. Despite this, one could not fail to be taken with the way he never came off the bridle, Geraghty hardly flinched. This time on heavy ground (Newbury was only soft), Puffin Billy again moved sweetly, he was nothing like as keen as at Newbury, allowing Geraghty time to track the other runners and make his move when necessary. In last of four for most of the trip, Puffin Billy appeared as if he wasn’t concentrating at most of his hurdles. Apart from the second flight, he got in close to each of the first six with his worst leap coming at the sixth. This may have focussed his mind as he jumped the last three well, displaying an aptitude for jumping. It is also possible that by pulling him out from last place, Geraghty allowed him a better sight of his hurdles. I would not be overly concerned with his hurdling, as the technique seems to be there and he is another powerful sort who should improve with a faster pace. In a soft or heavy ground Supreme he would be formidable but those are the only scenarios in which we could see Puffin Billy in the festival’s opening race as Oliver Sherwood has already pointed to a possible step up in trip for his next start in a race on Cheltenham Trials day. He may prefer to stick to two miles at Haydock but I see no reason why he won’t stay the extra distance, in which case I expect him to win at the end of January forcing connections down the Neptune path. Ground will apparently dictate his festival target, yet on trials day it will still be soft, at least, therefore, if he takes up his Cheltenham engagement, only a mishap of some sort looks likely to prevent his target being over 2m5f.

Boxing Day saw Long Run nearly fluff his lines and last season’s Supreme runner-up Darlan rout his opposition, sending himself to the head of the Champion Hurdle market. These rightly took the headlines but the day opened with dominant display from River Maigue. His previous race clearly did not suit him and for a hurdling debut it was extremely encouraging. In discussing it here at the time I felt that he was likely to prove superior to his conqueror, Dodging Bullets, despite receiving seven pounds and I still stand by that, with this run going some way to proving that. Dodging Bullets ran respectably in third behind Darlan in the Grade 1 Christmas Hurdle on the same day but that was a race ostensibly of last season’s two mile novices, a crop that I felt were below average. He does not look like a Supreme Novices winner to me and, despite River Maigue boosting his form so comprehensively, the race at Cheltenham was won by his jockey and once the festival arrives I suspect he will lack the class to compete.

River Maigue, on the other hand, showed tremendous class in bumpers and proved he was high class at Kempton by defeating last season’s Champion Bumper second, New Year’s Eve by seven lengths, despite getting hampered exiting the final bend. Jumping exuberantly throughout, he was nimble when he got in close and jumped boldly at other times. River Maigue showed what scope he has, a likely Arkle/Jewson contender next season, and he should improve again on his next start. I have been a fan of this horse since I saw him in the paddock at Ascot before his bumper debut and the Supreme Novices looks on his agenda. I am sure he will show up well, particularly with his crisp jumping, but there is just something about the way he travels and finishes his races that suggests to me he will be even better over further. While we are unlikely to see that theory tested at Cheltenham I imagine he will follow in the footsteps of Spirit Son, also owned by Michael Buckley, who ran a brilliant race to finish second in the Supreme before bolting up over four furlongs further at Aintree. River Maigue handled the heavy ground at Kempton with aplomb so a very soft festival would benefit him with the race shaping up to be full of speed balls hoping for better ground. A normal festival picture would leave him just lacking in the pace department I fear, but I would expect him to be flying home at the death, quite possibly into a place. Either way the 14/1 available looks about right, with the win on Boxing Day looking solid form.

As usual this season, Nicky Henderson is awash with novice hurdle talent and the best of those, according to him, at the start of the season was My Tent Or Yours. On his first start over hurdles he impressively dealt with the promising, Jonjo O’Neill trained, French recruit Taquin Du Seuil despite jumping sloppily. On Taquin Du Seuil’s next start he picked up a grade 2 at Sandown on the bridle. This eye-catching form boost caused My Tent Or Yours’ price for the Supreme to contract significantly, halving to 10/1 in many places. This seemed a bit hasty until Taquin Du Seuil followed up the grade 2 with a convincing grade 1 victory in The Challow novices’ hurdle on Saturday at Newbury. On the same card My Tent Or Yours was ready to make his second appearance over hurdles despite the heavy ground being a huge concern for connections. Sent off at 4/11 most people expected another convincing success for McCoy (he rode Taquin Du Seuil as well earlier in the day). Most people probably didn’t include the trainer, unfortunately for his supporters, as his other runner in the race revelled in the mud and collected the prize in decisive fashion. Chatterbox had won his only bumper narrowly, but being a son of Poliglote he was expected to take to conditions and he did so in the manner of a smart horse. Henderson does not see him as a Cheltenham horse therefore a Supreme bid is obviously out of the question but a change of heart, to which Mr Henderson is occasionally susceptible, and soft ground could bring him right into the equation if this form is taken literally.

However, taking this form literally would be dangerous as My Tent Or Yours failed to show his true ability. He was keen at Ascot and had been keen in all his previous races, consequently McCoy tried to get him settled by holding him up off the pace, some distance behind the leaders. Bar one slight blemish at the third, My Tent Or Yours jumped accurately, showing important progress had been made in that department, and, as he moved easily through the race, his rider seemed happy turning into the straight as it looked only a matter of time before he picked off those ahead. McCoy sat still all the way up the straight until the last, while Geraghty had been pushing his mount along for a while. On approach to the last My Tent Or Yours steadied whereas Chatterbox flew it and came away running. The race was as good as over then, with an insurmountable gap for My Tent Or Yours to make up. The idea had clearly been to win as snugly as possible if at all on My Tent Or Yours in order to avoid a hard race in the conditions. He could not quite come out on top with such a talented rival enjoying the ground but I haven’t lost any faith in this son of Desert Prince as the major concern with his last performance was his jumping, which was solid here, and he was less keen showing he is maturing and learning with experience. If he can find better ground, even soft should be fine for him, then he should show his true colours. I expect he will be ridden with slightly less restraint from now on as in both his starts this season he has not shown the instant acceleration which seemed likely. My Tent Or Yours might not be the most straightforward ride but he is certainly talented and I fancy next time we will see another performance to justify his position near the head of the Supreme Market, a position he lost this weekend.

Happy New Year!