Supreme Novices Hurdle review: Cinders And Ashes

Following a vintage renewal in 2011 the Supreme Novices Hurdle was unlikely to reach those heights in 2012 and the lack of stars in the 2 mile division backed this up. Cinders And Ashes was in the end a good winner but the way the race panned out left the impression that it was no better than an average running of the Festival curtain raiser.

Traditionally run at a frenetic early pace, this time the field was taken along at a steady gallop by the eventual winner’s stablemate Agent Archie. The pace gradually quickened and Jason Maguire was well placed on the inside on Cinders And Ashes. Donald McCain’s son of Beat Hollow had marked his career so far with fluent, quick jumping but there was the exception at Ascot where he made that horror mistake which cost him the race. At Cheltenham his jumping was slick on the whole but he again made a significant early error, at the fourth. Fortunately for connections and supporters he had enough speed to recover quickly and despite being squeezed up against the rail at one point and another, quite serious, blunder at the last he held off AP McCoy in full flow aboard Darlan to record a one-and-a-quarter length victory.

Cinders And Ashes is evidently a horse with any amount of pace and the trainer’s assertion that he will be trained for the Champion Hurdle looks to be the right one. He will need to cut out the serious errors he seems capable of throwing into his races but with experience he should be able to seeing as, in general, his jumping is an asset. Another asset for the future would be his ability to handle any ground, as shown by his win here on quick ground and two victories in, admittedly weak races, on soft/heavy going.

It is possible to mark up his victory in the Supreme when one includes his last flight error but I see it differently as Montbazon made a similar one, as well as others, as did Darlan who landed flat footed, while Trifolium was slow at the second last. This list of errors from the front 4 suggests the race lacked real depth and were Cinders And Ashes to be a Champion Hurdle contender one would have hoped for a similar performance to that of Simonsig the following day. Improvement is expected, of course, but I would be surprised if he could improve enough to challenge the likes of Rock On Ruby and Spirit Son in 2013. 

Supreme Novices Hurdle: Preview and Selection

The disappointment of Simonsig taking up his entry in the Neptune Investment Management Novices’ hurdle instead of the Supreme has taken a while to get over but I am just about there now and I feel it is appropriate to put up another selection for the race.

Looking at the Supreme field it appears to be a weaker group than has often been the case, particularly compared to last season’s vintage renewal, and with the outstanding candidate Simonsig going elsewhere it has been left to another Henderson inmate, Darlan, to take up the mantle as favourite. Darlan has been highly vaunted all his life and after his 27 length victory in his bumper great things were expected. He has generally been impressive but worryingly for favourite backers his worst performance was over the course in December and he is coming into the race off the back of a heavy fall at Newbury. That run looked likely to be his best yet and had he won or been in the first three then his current price may be justified. However, it is plausible that he would have found little coming off the bridle and finished 5th. We are still unsure of what he will find when asked, and despite his tall reputation at home this question mark stands, therefore 9/2 is simply too short to consider taking.  

I also have doubts over the next few in the market, all at single figures. Steps To Freedom looked one of the top bumper horses last season having won the Aintree bumper in good style and has been at or near the top of the betting for the Supreme Novices ever since. Following a productive flat season Jessie Harrington’s charge won his first two hurdle races comfortably and he was sent to Cheltenham in November in order to gain experience of the track. At the time managing to beat Prospect Wells looked high class form, especially with the promising Ericht back in third. Subsequent events have shown this form to be far weaker than first impressions indicated with Prospect Wells being exposed next time in a handicap at Ascot and Ericht showing little to nothing in three subsequent starts. Steps To Freedom was probably better than he showed that day on the back of a hard flat season and two quick hurdle runs but I still doubt whether he will be quite good enough here.

Galileos Choice is next in the betting but I see his price as being mainly based around his flat form, which is admittedly high class, as his hurdle runs haven’t been at a standard where he deserves to be 7/1 for the Supreme. He should have won the Royal Bond were he a genuine contender, instead he lost to a stayer in Sous Les Cieux and then he beat a four mile chaser next time in the manner one would expect. Galileos Choice may improve for faster ground and he is still lightly raced so there should be more to come but his trainer is gearing him up for a full flat season. Dermot Weld has also said he doubts his horse has enough experience for a race of this nature and as a result I am content in avoiding him.

Cinders And Ashes since his horror mistake at Ascot, costing him the race, has jumped well and shown a great deal of class in a couple of comfortable heavy ground victories in the north. This added to his useful bumper form from last season marks him out as a major contender for the race. Saying that, he finished tamely in the Cheltenham Champion Bumper having travelled smoothly and has beaten little of note since defeating Keys, who has let the form down subsequently anyway. Donald McCain’s novice, by Beat Hollow, has solid credentials but it would surprise me were there not a horse with bit more class in there capable of swooping past him up the famous Cheltenham Hill.

The final Horse generally available in single figures at the moment is the Willie Mullins trained Midnight Game. He is a horse with an eye-catching progressive profile and last time out he pulled away nicely from a talented yardstick in Dylan Ross. With further likely improvement likely to come due to the sounder surface, he will likely face at Cheltenham, he looks a leading contender and the 10/1 available in the odd place is reasonable. This son of Montjeu is also a reportedly good home worker which is why it is so unnerving to hear Willie Mullins be so disappointed with his recent efforts, as such he is no longer a definite runner and, even if he was, these negative reports so close to the race would be enough to put anyone off getting involved now or on the day.

Midnight Game is owned by the Gigginstown juggernaut and their retained jockey, Davy Russell, is going to have a tough decision to make as he will also have the option of riding my selection TRIFOLIUM. He is 14/1 generally and if Davy Russell does decide to ride him then he will be significantly shorter. I had my concerns about the Charles Byrnes runner after his last run and at the time it seemed like he may not even run at Cheltenham, but now that seems very much the plan. One of my concerns is that all his best form is on soft/heavy ground and he has seemed to enjoy the test of ploughing through mud over 2 miles. It is to be taken on trust that he will handle the quicker ground at Cheltenham and for him to win he will need to improve for it as well but his trainer is confident he will do. I am willing to believe him now seeing as the Supreme is his target and the way he quickened so impressively last time suggests he should have the necessary speed to compete over the minimum trip on the projected ground.

Trifolium was not fully extended on his most recent start and yet he beat Simenon, well regarded by Willie Mullins, by nine lengths. The rate of improvement he has shown suggests he is one of the few in the Supreme who could still be anything and since the application of cheek pieces he has jumped accurately, a trait that is necessary for this race, which, in all likelihood, will be run at a furious pace. Davy Russell has mentioned a worry that Trifolium has so far pulled quite hard which will have a detrimental effect on his Cheltenham challenge and this was the excuse given for his convincing defeat by So Young. He was far better at Punchestown though and So Young is an extremely high class animal who should be challenging Big Buck’s, hence there was no disgrace in that performance. This was probably Trifolium’s only run against top class opposition and he seemed to fail which must niggle but he was not at his best that day and even so, without Simonsig in the field, there does not appear to be a truly top class horse in opposition. At 14/1 this son of Goldneyev (also the sire of Balder Succes) is value and there is scope to shorten, with the possibility of him becoming the only Gigginstown House Stud representative, even if he isn’t, money will surely come for him given the doubts around many of the others. With so much potential and all the necessary attributes to be competitive in a Supreme Novices’ Hurdle, Trifolium has every chance of kicking off the meeting with an Irish victory.

The Rest

Colour Squadron and Montbazon are closely matched having beaten each other at Newbury this season. Colour Squadron was travelling strongly when falling last time and could have beaten Montbazon again, in which case he is overpriced at the moment. His tendency to hang is a huge concern, though, as he showed when giving away the Tolworth and he possibly prefers softer ground. This would be enough to put me off him and I don’t rate Montbazon any higher. He looks to me the sort who will appreciate further and is yet to excite me over hurdles in the way he did in bumpers. Tetlami, a winner of a Cheltenham bumper, is a solid candidate for Nicky Henderson but the vibes from the yard are that Darlan is their number one. He is probably underestimated, as he is not a flashy sort, but his form at Kempton has taken a knock with Vulcanite’s recent run at Newbury. It was Vulcanite’s first run over obstacles when second to Tetlami at Kempton and he has surely improved since then. Having gained experience he is possibly capable of reversing that form, especially with the progress in his jumping which is now superior to anything else in the field. This is so important at Cheltenham hence at a big price it would be no surprise to see him finish in the frame. Last time at Newbury he was not ridden to best effect and he must be better than he showed there.

Prospect Wells has come in for support recently with him being seen as a value bet considering his proximity to Steps To Freedom at the Paddy Power meeting in November. I take the view that Jessica Harington’s star novice was below his best that day and Prospect Wells was flattered. Since then Paul Nicholls’ charge has been exposed as below top class and his last run, behind Colour Squadron at Sandown, was lamentable. He reportedly had a breathing problem there, which has been fixed, but it is very rare for a horse to run so poorly on his final start before Cheltenham and still win the Supreme.

Supreme Novices Update

In the last week we have seen three horses stake their claim for the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle; Vulcanite, Cinders And Ashes and Midnight Game.

Vulcanite is the first and, so far, only horse to go jumping in the Pearl Bloodstock colours. By the versatile superstar sire Dubawi, he was a classy performer on the level for Ralph Beckett, winning 5 times and finishing just 9 ½ lengths behind the hugely exciting Beaten Up on his final flat start. It was hoped by his Owner, Sheikh Fahad, that if he could transfer his flat ability to hurdles he could set his sights on Cheltenham.

For his first start in the care of Charlie Longsdon Vulcanite was set a stiff task at Kempton on Boxing Day. He faced the Nicky Henderson trained Tetlami who had won his bumper and debut over hurdles impressively. Since then the form of Tetlami’s first run over hurdles has been franked with the second and third winning good races next time out, showing just how tough a test this was for Vulcanite. He ran a race full of promise in finishing a good second with Tetlami all out to beat him by 3 ½ lengths. After the race Charlie Longsdon said it was just inexperience that cost him the race and that the next time he met Tetlami, Vulcanite would reverse the form. On Wednesday, Vulcanite had his second run over hurdles at Southwell. It was a weak race and his trainer admitted that he had to win impressively to be considered for the Supreme. Going off at 1/4 Charlie Longsdon’s charge did not disappoint. Travelling strongly at the head of affairs he quickened away from the field hard on the bridle to win by 7 lengths in the style that was expected.  

On both starts Vulcanite has raced keenly but he was less keen at Southwell, suggesting he is improving with experience. He is likely to have one more run before Cheltenham in which he will have to learn to settle better otherwise he is going to struggle come March. Although it can be argued that he has been keen because, so far, his races have been slowly run. Hence the pace of the Supreme should be in his favour. Another positive for Vulcanite’s Cheltenham aspirations has been his jumping. Following two blunders at his first two hurdles jumped in public at Kempton, Vulcanite has jumped well and enthusiastically. He clearly enjoys his new job and we haven’t seen the best of him yet. The 25/1 available for the Supreme Novices seems a fair price.

However, I am not desperate to take that price at this stage as I see his comfortable victory at Southwell as yet another boost to the extremely solid Tetlami form. I would be far more interested in the 20/1 about him. Connections suggest that Vulcanite should reverse the form with Tetlami next time but I’m not convinced. Even if he were to, it seems that Henderson has at least two with better chances than Tetlami, particularly Simonsig, therefore Vulcanite will have to take a giant leap forward on his next start for me to see him as a contender.  

Cinders And Ashes is a very likeable 5yo who travels strongly, jumps well and quickens like a high class horse. Donald McCain loves him and is confident he can win this year’s Supreme. He was a talented bumper horse, winning twice at smaller tracks before acquitting himself well twice at Cheltenham. On his first run at Cheltenham he was beaten a short head by the talented flat performer Keys. This was some of the best bumper form around and his connections went into the Champion Bumper full of confidence. The son of Beat Hollow travelled like the best horse in the race but weakened, eventually finishing fifth. With an extra year on his back his trainer asserts that he has grown and is a stronger animal.

This season, Cinders And Ashes has run four times over hurdles and should be unbeaten. His only defeat came on his first start at Ascot to Broadbackbob. Having made what looked a race ending error at the fifth flight he lost significant ground on the leaders but eventually picked up again, and to his credit was leading at the last. Unfortunately for his connections his efforts in recovering his position took their toll and he was just outstayed by the Nicky Henderson gelding. Broadbackbob is a smart individual and should have a great chance in the Neptune Investments Novices’ Hurdle, so, on the face of it this was a pleasing debut over hurdles for Donald McCain’s horse. Next time, at Aintree, he came up against his old adversary Keys. Whilst Keys was evidently not suited by the conditions, Cinders And Ashes reversed the form in no uncertain terms, proving just how much he had improved since last season and his liking for soft ground. This was a striking performance, he won by 9 lengths in the end, and is probably still his best over hurdles. His last two runs have been in small fields at Haydock on heavy going and both have been similar performances. On each occasion he has travelled smoothly through the race and picked up the leader late on, before showing his superior class and quickening away. The form of each run is hard to evaluate but his latest performance was more significant as he beat two well regarded horses from top stables and the runner up, Double Ross, has form that ties in with the best novice hurdler around, Fingal Bay. This was also the race Donald McCain ran Peddlers Cross in before his Cheltenham Festival victory.

The trainer’s plan now is to head straight to the Supreme and Cinders And Ashes looks a strong candidate. He has strong bumper form, he handles Cheltenham, jumps hurdles well and travels like the high class horse he appears to be. As a consequence, he is fancied by many and now the longest price available for him is 14/1. This, again, is not an unreasonable price and he has achieved far more than Darlan so far, who is shorter in the betting. It is very hard to knock him but his best form has come on soft or heavy ground. He may well improve for the quicker ground in the spring but it is worth pointing out. As is the fact that he made a shocking jumping error on debut and another mistake at the last on Saturday. In the Supreme he will not have the time to get back into the race like he did at Ascot and he will not be so superior to his rivals that a final flight blunder will not matter, as he was at Haydock. In short, Cinders And Ashes will be thereabouts coming to the last in the festival opener but I would be surprised if there wasn’t at least one horse in front of him come the line.

Midnight Game was bought by Willie Mullins at the Arqana Sale in Saint-Cloud for €185,000 having been runner up twice in listed company on the flat for Jean-Claude Rouget. This was the same sale that in 2009 he bought Zaidpour and it was hoped this son of Montjeu would be a similarly good novice hurdler.

Unlucky not to win first time over hurdles having been hampered at the last, Midnight Game has progressed from there. On his next start he was fourth behind stablemate Sous Les Cieux in the Grade 1 Royal Bond and he would have been closer had he not nearly fallen two from home. Next he went to Leopardstown on Boxing Day an 11/10 favourite and won, beating a subsequent winner, Joxer, by half a length in the process. He stepped up again on that run next time at Naas this weekend in beating the highly touted Dylan Ross comfortably by 2 ½ lengths. With this rate of improvement he has quickly made up into a smart novice hurdler and there is even more to come. What excites me about him is that Mullins believes he is certain to improve for the quicker ground he will face at Cheltenham. This on top of his already progressive profile bodes extremely well for his festival challenge.

As is often the case with Mullins there are a number of different horses he could run in the Supreme Novices and also the Neptune Investments over half a mile further. This makes antepost betting on his horses tricky but luckily for Midnight Game supporters he has stated that the Supreme is the aim. Whether he will be the Mullins first string is another question. The trainer has mentioned recently that the likely target for his, aforementioned, Grade 1 winning novice hurdler Sous Les Cieux is also the Supreme. I am a huge fan of this French bred and Mullins feels he has the requisite speed to challenge over 2m on quick ground but I see him as a better prospect over further. Were Mullins to agree and step him up in trip for the Neptune then I would have to look extremely closely at Midnight Game. If Mullins did make it clear, soon, that he was the best of his 2m novice hurdlers then the 20/1 currently available would look big and quite tempting.