We find ourselves with only five
weeks until the big day. Before you know it the Festival will have been and
gone, leaving us with thoughts of the upcoming flat season. While Aintree will
be an entertaining interlude, the prospect of the Cheltenham Festival ending is
grim, to say the least. In reality that is still some way off, for all that it
won’t feel that way once it arrives, and there are still trial races to digest and
consider. One such trial was the Moscow Flyer Novice Hurdle at Punchestown on
Sunday won last year by Trifolium, an unlucky third in the Supreme, and
previously by Mikael D’Haguenet for Willie Mullins. Mullins won the race once
again this season but it would be bold to predict a similarly authoritative display
at Cheltenham from this year’s winner, Mozoltov.
Mozoltov was among the best Irish
bumper horses last season despite being soundly beaten three times. His defeat
at the hands of Clonbanan Lad may give an indication to what level he is capable
of reaching in novice hurdles but that would be unfair. Mozoltov has always
been highly regarded but he did not quite have the form to back up his
reputation until he ran his best race during the Punchestown Festival, where he
finished close to Melodic Rendezvous but a significant distance behind
Champagne Fever. That looks a level below what is required for a Supreme,
despite how strongly or otherwise Melodic Rendezvous is fancied. This weekend’s
run also has the appearance of being a level or two below what will be required.
On his first outing this season Mozoltov demolished an atrocious field divulging
little about himself in the process, other than he could jump. Again on Sunday
his hurdling was fluent and brisk and he consistently came away from the
hurdles faster than his better fancied rival Don Cossack, even when Davy
Russell found the right stride. Willie Mullins said afterwards that the Supreme
would be his next race, perhaps surprising given that he had been slightly under
the radar in terms of novice hurdlers. There has not been the same hype and
talk about him that has befallen some of his stablemates and maybe it was naive
not to enter him into one’s calculations for the Festival opener. Yet Mullins
did say at the start of the season that Mozoltov was a chaser in the making and
even after this weekend I would struggle to make a case for him winning at
Cheltenham based on what he’s done, only on what he might do.
The beaten favourite on Sunday
was Don Cossack. He is surely destined to be better over further and his
jumping can only hold him back over smaller obstacles, particularly at this
trip where speed is paramount and slick jumping is necessitated. However, he
already proved that he was inferior to the current standard bearer over
two-and-a-half miles, Pont Alexandre, last time at Navan and it is difficult to
envisage him recreating that awesome impression he left in bumpers, while
hurdling over the minimum trip. In bumpers Don Cossack took people’s
imagination, he left an indelible, powerful mark leading many to assume his
ascent to the top over obstacles would be swift. On debut this season, there
was little to dissuade this notion other than a certain sloppiness in his
hurdling technique, but the ground was lamentable and it could be quickly
brushed aside by connections and onlookers. Unfortunately, next time out
against the imperious Neptune bound Pont Alexandre the problem appeared more
chronic. There was certainly improvement in that area on Sunday but not enough
to suggest that he will reach the heights over hurdles that once seemed
inevitable.
The faith shown in him by his talented
trainer is tough, possibly foolish, to ignore. This season might appear
disappointing when one considers what was expected but Gordon Elliott always
maintained he was a future chaser from the top drawer and this is hard to
refute especially when taking his physique and running style into account. He
is a powerful galloper who gives too much air to his hurdles in the manner of a
chaser, with fences between him and his goal there may be a different animal
waiting to be unleashed. Don Cossack is not the novice hurdler that many had
hoped for but the seemingly limitless potential that he possessed in bumpers
could be fulfilled over fences once he begins the job he was bred for. When put
into the perspective that Don Cossack is effectively a three mile chaser, his
hurdling career to date has been far from underwhelming.
Ned Buntline is another well
regarded novice but of the well-fancied triumvirate at Punchestown he was the most
disappointing. McCoy was at pains to hold him up right off the pace, his keen
going tendencies were plain to see, but from last he moved stylishly into third
following a big leap two out before fading relatively quickly as the front two
quickened clear. Ned Buntline has not looked devoid of pace in his career,
hence it could be that he struggled with the ground, failing to pick up as well
as his rider might have expected. There will be improvement to come on a
sounder surface but this display arguably rules out enough improvement to get
competitive in what looks a competitive Supreme and it is possible to say that
he, to some extent, holds the form down for the first and second. A convincing win over Urano (subsequently beaten
by the lesser known Legal Exit) on his last run prior to this weekend, Ned
Buntline was back on track having shocked connections previously when beaten by
Bright New Dawn at Fairyhouse. But, while an extremely useful and still
somewhat unexposed novice hurdler, Bright New Dawn was comfortably dispatched
by Jezki, current favourite for the Supreme, on his next start. Jessica
Harrington’s five-year-old was unextended and Ned Buntline’s conqueror was all
of eight lengths behind. Once his chance was gone Ned Buntline was caringly
handled by McCoy here and he was only beaten six-and-a-half-lengths. If
Mozoltov or even Don Cossack had pretensions on the Supreme crown they needed
to pull further clear. The way Jezki has finished off his races over hurdles
indicates that we are someway off seeing his limit whereas Mozoltov was all out
to see off Don Cossack.
Willie Mullins’ charge may prove
to be better than this, with Ruby Walsh suggesting afterwards that he wasn’t
entirely enjoying the ground but he has only run so far on soft or heavy ground
and his best performance, up until this weekend, had been on essentially
unraceable ground at the Punchestown Festival. I wouldn’t be desperate to
suggest that he will improve for the quicker ground normally prevalent at
Cheltenham. Mozoltov may improve for the faster pace and bigger field in the
Supreme, he was ridden quite aggressively at Punchestown and could be more
impressive were he to be held up off a stronger gallop, but it is all about how
much and while his price may appear tempting on the face of it now, once we
have seen next weekend’s events it may well look on the mean side.
