Supreme Novices Hurdle: Preview and Selection

The disappointment of Simonsig taking up his entry in the Neptune Investment Management Novices’ hurdle instead of the Supreme has taken a while to get over but I am just about there now and I feel it is appropriate to put up another selection for the race.

Looking at the Supreme field it appears to be a weaker group than has often been the case, particularly compared to last season’s vintage renewal, and with the outstanding candidate Simonsig going elsewhere it has been left to another Henderson inmate, Darlan, to take up the mantle as favourite. Darlan has been highly vaunted all his life and after his 27 length victory in his bumper great things were expected. He has generally been impressive but worryingly for favourite backers his worst performance was over the course in December and he is coming into the race off the back of a heavy fall at Newbury. That run looked likely to be his best yet and had he won or been in the first three then his current price may be justified. However, it is plausible that he would have found little coming off the bridle and finished 5th. We are still unsure of what he will find when asked, and despite his tall reputation at home this question mark stands, therefore 9/2 is simply too short to consider taking.  

I also have doubts over the next few in the market, all at single figures. Steps To Freedom looked one of the top bumper horses last season having won the Aintree bumper in good style and has been at or near the top of the betting for the Supreme Novices ever since. Following a productive flat season Jessie Harrington’s charge won his first two hurdle races comfortably and he was sent to Cheltenham in November in order to gain experience of the track. At the time managing to beat Prospect Wells looked high class form, especially with the promising Ericht back in third. Subsequent events have shown this form to be far weaker than first impressions indicated with Prospect Wells being exposed next time in a handicap at Ascot and Ericht showing little to nothing in three subsequent starts. Steps To Freedom was probably better than he showed that day on the back of a hard flat season and two quick hurdle runs but I still doubt whether he will be quite good enough here.

Galileos Choice is next in the betting but I see his price as being mainly based around his flat form, which is admittedly high class, as his hurdle runs haven’t been at a standard where he deserves to be 7/1 for the Supreme. He should have won the Royal Bond were he a genuine contender, instead he lost to a stayer in Sous Les Cieux and then he beat a four mile chaser next time in the manner one would expect. Galileos Choice may improve for faster ground and he is still lightly raced so there should be more to come but his trainer is gearing him up for a full flat season. Dermot Weld has also said he doubts his horse has enough experience for a race of this nature and as a result I am content in avoiding him.

Cinders And Ashes since his horror mistake at Ascot, costing him the race, has jumped well and shown a great deal of class in a couple of comfortable heavy ground victories in the north. This added to his useful bumper form from last season marks him out as a major contender for the race. Saying that, he finished tamely in the Cheltenham Champion Bumper having travelled smoothly and has beaten little of note since defeating Keys, who has let the form down subsequently anyway. Donald McCain’s novice, by Beat Hollow, has solid credentials but it would surprise me were there not a horse with bit more class in there capable of swooping past him up the famous Cheltenham Hill.

The final Horse generally available in single figures at the moment is the Willie Mullins trained Midnight Game. He is a horse with an eye-catching progressive profile and last time out he pulled away nicely from a talented yardstick in Dylan Ross. With further likely improvement likely to come due to the sounder surface, he will likely face at Cheltenham, he looks a leading contender and the 10/1 available in the odd place is reasonable. This son of Montjeu is also a reportedly good home worker which is why it is so unnerving to hear Willie Mullins be so disappointed with his recent efforts, as such he is no longer a definite runner and, even if he was, these negative reports so close to the race would be enough to put anyone off getting involved now or on the day.

Midnight Game is owned by the Gigginstown juggernaut and their retained jockey, Davy Russell, is going to have a tough decision to make as he will also have the option of riding my selection TRIFOLIUM. He is 14/1 generally and if Davy Russell does decide to ride him then he will be significantly shorter. I had my concerns about the Charles Byrnes runner after his last run and at the time it seemed like he may not even run at Cheltenham, but now that seems very much the plan. One of my concerns is that all his best form is on soft/heavy ground and he has seemed to enjoy the test of ploughing through mud over 2 miles. It is to be taken on trust that he will handle the quicker ground at Cheltenham and for him to win he will need to improve for it as well but his trainer is confident he will do. I am willing to believe him now seeing as the Supreme is his target and the way he quickened so impressively last time suggests he should have the necessary speed to compete over the minimum trip on the projected ground.

Trifolium was not fully extended on his most recent start and yet he beat Simenon, well regarded by Willie Mullins, by nine lengths. The rate of improvement he has shown suggests he is one of the few in the Supreme who could still be anything and since the application of cheek pieces he has jumped accurately, a trait that is necessary for this race, which, in all likelihood, will be run at a furious pace. Davy Russell has mentioned a worry that Trifolium has so far pulled quite hard which will have a detrimental effect on his Cheltenham challenge and this was the excuse given for his convincing defeat by So Young. He was far better at Punchestown though and So Young is an extremely high class animal who should be challenging Big Buck’s, hence there was no disgrace in that performance. This was probably Trifolium’s only run against top class opposition and he seemed to fail which must niggle but he was not at his best that day and even so, without Simonsig in the field, there does not appear to be a truly top class horse in opposition. At 14/1 this son of Goldneyev (also the sire of Balder Succes) is value and there is scope to shorten, with the possibility of him becoming the only Gigginstown House Stud representative, even if he isn’t, money will surely come for him given the doubts around many of the others. With so much potential and all the necessary attributes to be competitive in a Supreme Novices’ Hurdle, Trifolium has every chance of kicking off the meeting with an Irish victory.

The Rest

Colour Squadron and Montbazon are closely matched having beaten each other at Newbury this season. Colour Squadron was travelling strongly when falling last time and could have beaten Montbazon again, in which case he is overpriced at the moment. His tendency to hang is a huge concern, though, as he showed when giving away the Tolworth and he possibly prefers softer ground. This would be enough to put me off him and I don’t rate Montbazon any higher. He looks to me the sort who will appreciate further and is yet to excite me over hurdles in the way he did in bumpers. Tetlami, a winner of a Cheltenham bumper, is a solid candidate for Nicky Henderson but the vibes from the yard are that Darlan is their number one. He is probably underestimated, as he is not a flashy sort, but his form at Kempton has taken a knock with Vulcanite’s recent run at Newbury. It was Vulcanite’s first run over obstacles when second to Tetlami at Kempton and he has surely improved since then. Having gained experience he is possibly capable of reversing that form, especially with the progress in his jumping which is now superior to anything else in the field. This is so important at Cheltenham hence at a big price it would be no surprise to see him finish in the frame. Last time at Newbury he was not ridden to best effect and he must be better than he showed there.

Prospect Wells has come in for support recently with him being seen as a value bet considering his proximity to Steps To Freedom at the Paddy Power meeting in November. I take the view that Jessica Harington’s star novice was below his best that day and Prospect Wells was flattered. Since then Paul Nicholls’ charge has been exposed as below top class and his last run, behind Colour Squadron at Sandown, was lamentable. He reportedly had a breathing problem there, which has been fixed, but it is very rare for a horse to run so poorly on his final start before Cheltenham and still win the Supreme.

Supreme Novices Update: Trifolium

During an exceptional weekend of sport one performance may have gone under the radar.  Arsenal’s super seven against Blackburn, Manchester United’s comeback at Stamford Bridge, the titanic tussle between Wales and Ireland in the Six Nations, the Giants’ victory in the Super Bowl and even the demolition of Big Zeb by Sizing Europe all overshadowed Trifolium’s win at Punchestown which has put him right into the Supreme Novices picture. Although with the absence of jump racing in Britain it’s possible many will have been focussed on the Irish racing more than ever.

Trifolium is a more experienced hurdler than most of his likely Supreme rivals. He has already run six times but importantly he seems to have a progressive profile.  On his first two starts in Ireland he ran extremely promising races and was placed on both occasions. Each time he was keen and finished relatively weakly. Accounting for this, his connections decided on a set of cheek pieces and a change in tactics on his next start at Cork where he was allowed to get on with it. Making all, he never saw another rival and in the end pulled, an eye-catching, 24 lengths clear. This change in tactics looked the way to go and next time out he set off in front again. Once more he won comfortably, never off the bridle, beating handicapper Plan A by just over 8 lengths. Trifolium appeared to cope well with the small field on his first start out of novice company so his trainer targeted a similar type of race at Navan for his next run. This time he faced a far sterner test up against one of last season’s top novices So Young.

Trained by the phenomenon that is Willie Mullins, So Young has been talked up as a possible challenger to Big Buck’s over 3 miles this season but on this occasion he stuck to two miles on testing ground. With such a formidable opponent it was always going to be tough and So Young was clearly expected to win as he was sent off at 1/3. He duly did and won well, with Trifolium 7½ lengths behind. On bare form this was another promising run but, in reality it was somewhat disappointing. Intriguingly, the evidently successful front-running tactics weren't employed this time on Trifolium, thereby handing the initiative to the masterful Ruby Walsh. It is possible they were worried about the son of Godneyev’s tendency to be keen and they were hoping to teach him to settle with a view to the festival where it is extremely difficult to win from the front. However, yet again Trifolium took a very keen hold and for the first half of the race Charles Byrne’s charge was fighting with jockey Davy Russell, but surprisingly between the third and second last he looked to be travelling better than So Young. For a second an upset was on the cards, but his early exertions had cost him as Trifolium had nothing more to give when So Young quickened away after the two out. This was to some extent understandable given the strong gallop set by Ruby Walsh on the soft-heavy ground. In spite of this his propensity to pull was alarming for a Cheltenham Festival aspirant and Charles Byrnes was keen himself to give the 5 year old one more run for experience.  

At Punchestown on Sunday they again decided to take a lead but this time he settled noticeably better and travelled smoothly throughout before an ultra impressive turn of foot approaching the home bend put the race to bed, only having to ridden out hands and heels to finish, a more than, convincing 9 lengths clear of another Mullins trained adversary Simenon. This was back in novice company and he was strongly fancied to win, sent off a 7/4 favourite, but nonetheless it was a tremendous display.

This performance would suggest he has a huge chance in the Supreme Novices Hurdle in March. Ever since the cheek pieces were applied his jumping has been assured and it was particularly good on Sunday. He also displayed the necessary pace for the festival curtain raiser and two miles looks to be his trip at this stage. Bearing all this in mind, the 16/1 available for Trifolium looks a fair price and it would be difficult to dissuade anyone from taking it. However, all his best runs over hurdles so far have come on soft or heavy ground and the way he powered through it at Punchestown suggests he relishes the surface. His trainer stated after the race he would improve for better ground and if this was true then he would have every chance in March, but I have my doubts. What he achieved in winning by 9 lengths is also debatable. Simenon had won a very weak maiden at Cork previously and possibly wants further than two miles and Joxer, who looked to be Trifolium’s main rival before the race, made two terrible mistakes, when still going well, at the third and second last flight effectively ending his chances. I feel the race was not a strong one and Trifolium will have to improve again if he is to challenge at Cheltenham especially when you think that the only time he faced a top class rival he was beaten comfortably, albeit with excuses. These excuses mainly revolved around his inability to settle and while he was fine on Sunday it would still be a major worry for me. Even Davy Russell said after the race at Punchestown that he worried about his keen going nature for Cheltenham and his not sure the track will suit. My final concern would surround his owners Gigginstown House Stud. They already have Midnight Game (Willie Mullins) who looks a better candidate for the Supreme Novices and is shorter in the in the betting. Second guessing them is always difficult but he looks their number one and with worries over the track suiting Trifolium you cannot be sure he will even turn up at Cheltenham.