Supreme Novices Update: Irving and Volnay De Thaix

Before the familiar festive feast of fixtures it is worth touching on the Grade 2 Kennel Gate Novices hurdle run at Ascot last Friday, where the winner produced an even clearer indication that he will be a leading player in the 2014 Supreme. There were reasons to be dissatisfied with the race as a whole but Irving was a comprehensive winner and appears to have a future bright enough to match his burgeoning reputation.

IRVING 

Since his electric display at Taunton, trainer Paul Nicholls and rider Nick Schofield have barely contained their excitement about this son of Singspiel. He is demonstrably an exuberant work-horse and fortunately he translates that to the track. I am generally wary of former flat performers making the grade in a Supreme and the style of his victory at Ascot on his previous start combined with his history on the level suggested to me that this was a horse all about speed. He had so far, on admittedly limited evidence, produced bursts of speed in sprint finishes that his inferior rivals understandably could not match. Already, Aintree stood out as a long term goal for Irving, the flat track ideally suited to the flat recruit. The stamina sapping two mile test of Cheltenham, where thorough stayers have been able come to the fore, didn’t fit what I saw as being Irving’s ideal but after his most recent display in demanding conditions off a far from farcical pace it would be remiss of anyone to use a lack of stamina as an excuse to oppose him.

Among Irving’s opposition on Friday was Splash Of Ginge, for Nigel Twiston-Davies, who had set a strong pace when emphatically seeing off a field of 7 at Aintree last time out and he attempted to make all once again. His presence meant the race was relatively truly run for a small field novices’ hurdle and it allowed Nick Schofield to settle his potentially keen five-year-old in rear. Despite flattening the second flight, which in fairness cost him no momentum, he was fluid over his obstacles and he shapes like a natural jumper, a point exemplified by the last where his greater aptitude for the task saw him pick his legs up higher and faster than Prince Siegfried who fell when upsides, having taken off from the same point. Prince Siegfried showed significant improvement from his narrow defeat of My Wigwam Or Yours to be in with a shout before this calamity. He was coming off second best and it is difficult to be sure how much he would have found after the last, however, assuming such a heavy fall has not left a mark this was a hugely encouraging effort from another smart flat recruit to the superlative Bloomfields operation.

Having travelled comfortably throughout, Nick Schofield was only pressed into action aboard Irving after jumping the penultimate flight as the aforementioned Prince Siegfried closed the inviting gap Irving was trying to move into. This posed no real problem as Schofield switched his mount around Denis O’Regan’s and with a shake of the reins Irving was immediately alongside. As the pair quickened clear of the eventual second and third Irving seemed to be in charge of the contest and pulled further clear as he was left in front at the final obstacle. His notable acceleration had been seen over hurdles before and again it settled matters in style on Friday yet on this occasion, in a race that was more than a sprint, he saw the race out strongly beating two rivals who weren’t stopping. The impression left by Paul Nicholls’ charge must be mitigated the fall of Prince Siegfried as he surely would have finished within the final six lengths margin of victory while the same could be said for Volnay De Thaix who was staying on nicely before being hampered. Of course Irving was hardly all out himself and without being pressed after the last he could not be tested to his limit.

As an individual, Irving is hard to find fault with. He has matured with each start and his nickname ‘Concorde’ speaks for itself. Nonetheless, he is not obliterating his fields and despite Volnay De Thaix having the potential beforehand, he has yet to face another high class rival or one who could be considered a Supreme contender. He has done more than enough though and he is bound to face such a foe(s) if he heads to the Tolworth next. We will learn even more about him there, or wherever he goes, the listed race at Exeter in early February may be another viable option (Puffin Billy attempted the double before taking his chance in the Supreme) and in an open year the 14/1 still available for the Festival curtain raiser is on the generous side.

Prince Siegfried is probably behind the likes of Mijhaar and Dubai Prince (entered in the Grade 1 Future Champions Novice Hurdle at Leopardstown on Friday) in the Bloomfields novice hurdling pecking order and the same would be said about Volnay De Thaix who sits behind the likes of West Wizard and Josses Hill, another classy winner this week. Like Josses Hill, Volnay De Thaix is very much a raw chaser on looks and was probably doing well to produce such a promising performance against the sharp, flat types he faced on Friday. There will have been a tinge of disappointment given he was backed into odds-on favouritism, the second Judy Wilson owned novice hurdler defeated last week following Tistory on Wednesday, but in his two previous efforts over hurdles, while totally dominant, he faced a set of opponents severely lacking in ability. This was evidently not the case at Ascot and as the pace picked up in the straight he found it tough going under Barry Geraghty, coming off the bridle earlier than his rivals, patently lacking the speed of Irving and Prince Siegfried. His jumping did, however, stand up under pressure which bodes well for the future. He would have finished considerably more than a short head in front of Splash Of Ginge (to whom he was giving three pounds) were it not for being hampered and the Secret Singer gelding ran very much as if further would suit him in this better company. That does not make him a Neptune contender but he should still hold his own over intermediate trips, particularly if they try to exploit his handicap mark, before being sent over fences, perhaps next season, when he will have hopefully grown up (described as a “big baby” by connections after his first two runs in this country) and in that sphere Volnay De Thaix will prove an even more exciting prospect. 

VOLNAY DE THAIX

Supreme Novices Update: River Maigue (Ascot)

Cheltenian has a number of entries this week and his return to action after a huge absence is imminent. If he can come through whichever test he takes in the coming days he could have a tilt at the Supreme and his current odds of 40/1 may appear generous. He was an extremely impressive winner of a memorable, at least it was for me, Champion Bumper but sadly injury has intervened since. It must be beyond frustrating for connections, with their patience surely tested, hopefully they can be rewarded with a return to form and a full season with him from next autumn.

Another memorable bumper personally, came this weekend last year on the Betfair Ascot Chase card. That day Royal Guardsman flew home, winning emphatically under Brendan Powell Jnr, his position as leading British hope in Cheltenham’s Champion Bumper cemented. It has been downhill for him since then however and, having switched from Colin Tizzard to his owner’s yard, this season has been largely disappointing with three relatively tame efforts over hurdles. Finishing third in Royal Guardsman’s Ascot bumper was the former point-to-point winner River Maigue who just failed to see the race out having been keen and possibly lacking experience. Unlike Royal Guardsman his career has been on the up since that race, this season shaping into a serious contender for the Supreme Novices' Hurdle.

Following his debut over hurdles in November, when he needed the run and the experience, River Miague went to Kempton on Boxing Day where he sauntered to victory, thrashing Champion Bumper runner up and fellow Supreme contender New Year’s Eve. There have been doubts over the form but the ease in which he won and the bullish reports from connections subsequently sent him near to the head of the Supreme Novices' ante-post market. He was recently tipped by Pricewise of the Racing Post, thereby solidifying his market position, and then on Saturday he was set the difficult task of giving exciting juvenile hurdler Far West 9lb, thanks to the weight-for-age allowance.

The race itself quickly turned into a farce as the leader, Boss In Boots, all but ran out leaving Far West in front and a dawdle of a gallop, to put it mildly. Jumping from both major protagonists was sound, Far West was particularly athletic when he needed to be four out and two out, but it wasn’t fluid with neither relishing the hurdles off such a slow pace. The race culminated in a three furlong sprint which Far West managed to win having been ideally placed in front by Ruby Walsh. Far West has been no stranger to making the running since coming over from France but he has been doing it in very testing conditions, whereas the ground had dried up somewhat on Saturday leaving the ground quicker he had ever faced, albeit still officially soft. Paul Nicholls’ charge had looked a strong stayer, often what you need in a Triumph Hurdle, but there were concerns expressed by many including myself over whether others at Cheltenham would have too much speed for him. Here, however, he seemingly dispelled those suggestions, quickening away nicely from a well regarded rival off a leisurely gallop. There are still slight doubts over his ability to handle much quicker ground, which he could face at the Festival, but he does appear to possess a significant blend of speed and stamina, along with a sound hurdling technique, and is not one to dismiss lightly for the juvenile hurdlers’ showpiece at the Festival.

Having praised Far West for producing a surprising level of speed there is the possibility he was flattered in that department. I have suggested after each of his runs over hurdles that River Maigue is likely to improve again once he tackles longer trips, especially given his pointing background where he won over three miles as a four-year-old. As a result, Far West’s ability to beat River Maigue for speed may not be the achievement it appeared on first viewing. Ruby Walsh failed to force Far West comfortably clear on the run-in, with the gap between first and second largely remaining the same. This might just have been a case of two future stayers sprinting.

Such was the ridiculous nature of the race on Saturday that it is almost impossible to learn anything about River Maigue’s chances in the Supreme. It could indicate that he is not a potential star, particularly over two miles, like a number of others heading for the Supreme, but that is still rather harsh as the race was so far removed from what he will face at Cheltenham it is hardly worth thinking about. Everything River Maigue has shown gives me the idea that he will be seen to best effect off a strong pace on ground quicker than soft. He is yet to face these conditions, hence it would be remiss to judge him too harshly on what he has done so far, despite failing to give out the wow factor of his stablemate My Tent Or Yours. Unlike so many of his rivals, who will have had an overly long break before Cheltenham, River Maigue will have had a recent run which is often a positive when it comes to the Festival. There is the possibility of leaving a horse’s race behind with a prep race too close to the Festival, but this quasi sprint was far from a gruelling test.

He is held in high esteem by Barry Geraghty and Nicky Henderson, while I have had a soft spot for him since his debut in this country behind Royal Guardsman in the aforementioned bumper, yet despite desperately trying to avoid dismissing River Maigue as a serious player and demean his achievements, this upcoming Supreme looks likely to fall to a horse that is exceptional over two miles. River Maigue is unlikely to prove that in my eyes and I expect he will struggle to finish in the places next month despite being a prospect I still want to follow closely. I am confident River Maigue has a bright future, primarily over fences, he is just a shade unfortunate to be among a particularly strong crop of novice hurdlers as in a normal year he would be a major threat to all.

Triumph Hurdle Update: Rolling Star

Supreme Novice clues were thin on the ground last week with multiple abandonments and the lack of a trial on Cheltenham Trials Day. Alan King did mention the race as the spring target for his stylish jumpers’ bumper winner Fair Trade. He cruised through the race at Kempton and saw off the potentially high class hurdler Pearl Swan with considerable ease. Raymond Tooth’s six-year-old was more than useful on the flat having been placed in a Group 3, he was even seen as good enough to compete in the 2000 Guineas won by, the still underrated, Makfi. Despite this, designs on the Supreme appear far-fetched to me, Alan King contests that he will improve markedly for better ground, but so will a host of others going for the race who have shown significantly superior hurdling form so far. Fair Trade is not the most straightforward of horses either which would be a concern for Cheltenham. One more run is planned for him before the Festival and unless he blossoms into a different horse on the back of his all-weather confidence booster I cannot envisage him being anything other than a long shot in March, and a long shot he will deserve to be.
   
Fortunately, there were a host of Festival markers laid down over the weekend with the standout performance probably produced by Pont Alexandre at Leopardstown (Sunday). Yet it is back at the home of jump racing where I want to concentrate. In the first race at Cheltenham on Saturday I fully expected a genuine, strong Triumph Hurdle contender to emerge and emerge he did, but it was not the contender I or many others expected.

Irish Saint arrived in the care of Paul Nicholls on the back of an impressive victory in a Listed Hurdle in France. That was his only run before moving to England and Nicholls saw him almost immediately as a chasing prospect. His bullishness before Irish Saint’s debut in this country at Kempton contributed to his charge’s odds-on SP but the confidence was well placed as he ran out an exceptionally impressive winner. He jumped and travelled smoothly before quickening away like a classy hurdler should, leaving the decent yardstick, McVicar toiling in his wake. I was really taken with this display and when it came to Saturday I felt he would extend his winning streak, setting himself up for a tilt at the Triumph in the process.

I was not alone in that view either as he was backed in to odds-on favouritism once more. Sadly for his supporters Irish Saint met with defeat for the first time. There were no excuses, he was already proven on the ground, Irish Saint had just come up against a better horse and, in my view, the genuine Triumph Hurdle contender we had expected to see. Rolling Star was only a maiden on the flat after seven starts but he did manage to win his first start over hurdles in France and with Nicky Henderson he was evidently improving all the time as positive reports about his work surfaced in the run up to Saturday’s race. There was also sustained support for the Triumph, he was around 12/1 shortly before the race. A bold showing was anticipated but Irish Saint looked a particularly tough nut to crack on the back of his Kempton demolition job. Intriguingly, however, Timeform rated Rolling Star’s French form one pound superior to Irish Saint’s, this was an indication of what was to follow.

Irish Saint set off in front under Ruby Walsh, keen to dictate a reasonable pace believing he was on the best horse, with Rolling Star and Barry Geraghty sitting in third eager to track the favourite. They both travelled easily through the race and as Feb Thirtyfirst cracked Rolling Star took up second from the third last, with the rest struggling the race boiled down to a match between two bright juveniles. Despite both jockeys looking comfortable all the way to the last, there was just an air of confidence exuding from Barry Geraghty and concern from Ruby Walsh as they approached the final obstacle. Irish Saint is a brilliant jumper of hurdles and he cleared the last exuberantly, in contrast Rolling Star, who, not the natural his opponent is, was slow costing himself valuable momentum. Geraghty was not perturbed, gradually winding is mount back up to move alongside the flailing Ruby Walsh, only then did he ask for maximum effort. Rolling Star responded willingly, pulling away from Irish Saint in a manner suggesting there was more to give. ‘Winning cosily’ is an overused term when it comes to finishes but here it seemed appropriate for Rolling Star and Barry Geraghty. The most encouraging aspect for me, in terms of his Festival aspirations, is that without the clumsy fumble of the last I expect Nicky Henderson’s four-year-old would have breezed past Irish Saint. For that reason he may still be underestimated by many, if no longer the bookmakers who have him around 5/1 which neither generous nor mean, as he beat this exciting juvenile with solid form, a tall reputation, and a physique to match even more easily than the comfortable two-and-a-quarter lengths suggests. Adding ballast to the form is Roc D’Apsis, back in third, who finished an almost identical distance behind current joint favourite with Rolling Star, Far West, on his previous run also at Cheltenham. Unlike Far West I anticipate Rolling Star will take to better ground just as easily as the heavy he encountered on Saturday. Were conditions to remain similar in March there would be fierce competition between the pair but as a son of Poliglote, Far West thrives on the heavy going. He has not raced on quicker ground yet, therefore, it may harsh to draw such a conclusion but if the ground does dry up for the Triumph I suspect he will struggle more than most.

The only factor that has stopped me backing him thus far is the nature of the Triumph Hurdle build up. So often we see major protagonists not appearing before February, with the Adonis usually being the most interesting trial in that regard. It is arguably foolhardy to back something for the Triumph before the Adonis with the likes of Zarkandar and Soldatino (two of the last three Triumph winners) popping up there on their British debuts. However, despite Nicky Henderson suggesting he had a couple more juveniles to unleash, he did admit that Rolling Star was probably the best. He has not yet decided whether to run Rolling Star again before Cheltenham but whatever happens we should see progression from his first start in this country for his new trainer to the next. It is tough to be negative about Rolling Star’s chances in the Triumph, at least for me, but it is one of the races at the Festival with many unknowns and horses can suddenly improve dramatically, like Countrywide Flame. If we do get the usual Cheltenham ground in March then there will be some horses who have been unable to show their true colours through this ‘monsoon’ season and from an antepost perspective the best juvenile could still be lurking somewhere with a name most have not even heard of yet.

The Irish have generally struggled to win the Triumph Hurdle but this year they may have their best chance for a while in Diakali for Willie Mullins. He has treated his rivals on both starts so far with utter contempt, turning both races into processions. We should learn more about him as he steps up in grade and hopefully takes on the other top Irish Juveniles, including the likes of Our Conor. Given another dominant display from him I may have to dampen my enthusiasm for Rolling Star. Whether or not Diakali does give Far West and Rolling Star fans something to think about, this year’s renewal of the Triumph Hurdle is heading towards yet another Nicky Henderson versus Willie Mullins versus Paul Nicholls contest at the 2013 Cheltenham Festival.

Supreme Novices Update: My Tent Or Yours

Normal service was resumed this weekend, as Paul Nicholls and Nicky Henderson dominated the jumping scene on both sides of the Irish Sea. The most visually impressive performance of the weekend was Silviniaco Conti’s rout in the Charlie Hall at Wetherby. He may have beaten overrated and unfit rivals but the style of this performance along with his rock solid novices’ chase form marks him out as a key player in all the major staying chases this season for Paul Nicholls. At Ascot, we saw a performance significantly less impressive but from a horse with arguably just as much potential in his division, the Nicky Henderson trained, My Tent Or Yours.

If pressed for my 2013 Supreme Novices’ Hurdle winner, at the start of this jumps season, I would probably have said My Tent Or Yours. Now, having witnessed his first run over hurdles, I am reluctant to switch allegiances just yet.

As a bumper horse he was always highly regarded, he even started odds-on for his first two starts and second favourite for the Aintree Champion Bumper. In the run-up to Aintree Nicky Henderson made it clear that he felt this son of Desert Prince was his best in that sphere.

For his first start under rules, Henderson sent My Tent Or Yours to Ludlow, a venue where he often likes to test his talented youngsters. Over 1m6f he settled well, surprisingly well considering how keen he has been in all his subsequent starts. This was quite a well run bumper and that surely aided his cause, as did the trip as it put the emphasis far more on speed. As a result, he ran out a supremely comfortable nine length winner displaying his undoubted class (with, the since unbeaten in four, Vegas Cash back in fourth). After a performance worthy of a step up in class, My Tent Or Yours was set the considerably stiffer task of the DBS Sales Bumper at Newbury. On this occasion Nicky Henderson’s charge pulled hard almost throughout and his rider, Barry Geraghty, said “he didn’t drop the bit until we were turning in for home”. It was, therefore, extremely creditable to finish second to Up To Something (a winner on his hurdling debut this season), beaten barely more than a length. Already a dual bumper winner, Up To Something had the run of the race up front and his trainer Charlie Longsdon sees him as novice hurdler for races over 2m4f+, consequently it was no disgrace for My Tent Or Yours to just be outstayed over an extended two miles. Inexperience also looked to play a part in this defeat as it was only his second ever race and his first ‘battle’.

Connections of My Tent Or Yours, understandably, felt he was unlucky at Newbury and headed to Aintree full of confidence. His abundance of speed, shown at Ludlow and Newbury, suggested Aintree would suit. Again, he pulled hard through early stages, although not to the same extent as at Newbury, but this time Geraghty managed to settle him. Due to his strikingly high cruising speed My Tent Or Yours inevitably took himself to the front earlier than ideal and although the rest of the field were under pressure and he was seemingly tanking along, he just couldn’t find enough off the bridle to repel the late charge of The New One. Ostensibly a stayer, The New One was always a possible danger if stamina was brought into play. The Aintree race was also over 2m1f and at the moment it looks as if two miles is My Tent Or Yours’ limit. As such, he did well to finish where he did, ahead of many useful performers and the form of the race has worked out exceptionally well. The New One has already won impressively twice over hurdles, while My Tent Or Yours in second, Court Minstrel (fourth), Ifyousayso (fifth) and Kaysersberg (14th) have all won on their hurdling debuts this season. This, coupled with the way he moved through race, left the impression that My Tent Or Yours would be an exciting prospect for novice hurdles.

J P McManus evidently agreed and he purchased Barry Geraghty’s usual mount thereby leaving the responsibility of guiding this promising novice through his first season over hurdles to A P McCoy. McCoy had in fact ridden My Tent Or Yours on his racecourse debut so he wasn’t unfamiliar with the strong travelling bay gelding.

At Ascot, My Tent Or Yours was sent off a heavily fancied 4/7 favourite. He had plainly been showing the right signs at home and his bumper form entitled him to be where he was in the market. There were however murmurings of support for the opposition he faced, primarily the French import Taquin Du Seuil, a winner at Uttoxeter on his hurdling debut (for McCoy), and the listed class flat performer Chiberta King.

It was clear from the outset that McCoy was in for a battle with My Tent Or Yours as his free going, hard pulling tendencies resurfaced and appeared worse than ever. He was anchored in last place but the race was run at an extremely slow pace which was never likely to suit and after jumping the first well he was by no means foot perfect over his obstacles, making a hash of the fourth, knocking the hurdle flat, and the last, where he was particularly slow. The pace remained steady until My Tent Or Yours, in effect, pulled his way into second just alongside Taquin Du Seuil rounding the final bend. Together they quickly managed to put distance between them and the field. While there were two horses left in with a chance there seemed little doubt that McCoy would come out on top as he approached the last yet to move on My Tent Or Yours while Geraghty, coincidentally replacing McCoy on Taquin Du Seuil, was all out in an attempt to remain alongside. With the mistake at the last and his history of failing to find as much as expected off the bridle, there was a moment’s worry and My Tent Or Yours had to be pushed out until he found the extra gear which he seems to posses. One crack of the whip was all but unnecessary and while he was in receipt of 5lbs from the runner-up and the winning distance was only a length-and-three-quarters, there was no hiding his superiority.

The way he has shaped on each of his four starts, particularly his most recent, suggests he will be at his best when faced with a strong pace in a big field. One cannot fail to be impressed by the way My Tent Or Yours travels so menacingly through a race, very few horses can match his ability to catch the eye, and for a hurdler he looks to be all about speed. Once he gets the strong pace he needs over two miles, he will be a major force to be reckoned with and I will not entertain any doubts over his class.

                                                                                                                                    

While his speed will get him so far, he will need to show that he finds for pressure once he comes off the bridle. I am sure that in previews to his future races people will be desperate to suggest laying him short in running as he has travelled strongly without delivering the anticipated finishing kick on three occasions. Excuses can be found however, and I believe he will have to come across something really smart to be beaten in the near future. At Newbury, the clearest case of him not finding off the bridle, My Tent Or Yours came up against a horse who had controlled the race from the front while Nicky Henderson’s charge showed signs of inexperience. At Aintree, he came across a top class horse in The New One who stays well and it was over a trip that just stretched his stamina to. Whilst, this weekend he came up against a small field with no pace and had to fight out the finish with, a not to be underestimated opponent in Taquin Du Seuil. Having previously shown a decent level of form on the flat in France, Taquin Du Seuil could not have been more impressive at Uttoxeter on his hurdling debut, beating the odds on favourite by fifteen lengths eased down. He has jumped well on both runs over hurdles and is surely one to look out for in future, while it is possible that he lacks the class to challenge in a Supreme Novices’.

It is also possible that he just came across a seriously talented horse in My Tent Or Yours, potentially the best two-mile novice hurdler in the country. Were this to be the case, the 20/1 available now for the Supreme would look very generous but it is so early that I would have to see the whole package to get involved now. He has the speed, the class and there are no doubts over him stepping up in trip. But, the fact remains My Tent Or Yours has had only one run over hurdles and he jumped poorly. If on his next start he jumps well and shows that he has learned from this experience, then the prospect of a double figure price, even months in advance, may become too tempting to resist.

Supreme Novices Update 2012/13: Court Minstrel and Dodging Bullets

With the first Cheltenham meeting already done with, I felt it appropriate to begin this season’s quest to identify the premier two-mile novice hurdler of the season. Sadly, for many like-minded individuals including myself, last season’s version, Simonsig, ended up running over 2m5f in The Neptune Investment Management Novices’ Hurdle. Again, this season I would prefer to see Simonsig displaying his undoubted prowess at two miles over hurdles but once again it seems I will be, to some extent, disappointed as Nicky Henderson is apparently leaning towards a chasing campaign. While I fully expect the former point-to-pointer to be ultra-successful over fences it is a shame that he is unlikely to be aimed at the Champion Hurdle, a race that looks his for the taking.

Unsurprisingly, Nicky Henderson has yet another strong team of prospective novice hurdlers this term but it was Evan Williams and Paul Nicholls who supplied this weekend’s early (very early) Supreme Novices contenders.

Lemington Maiden Hurdle

At Cheltenham on Friday twelve horses went to post in what appeared to be a competitive novices’ hurdle. The favourite was Population who had twice won bumpers impressively at Ascot before finishing sixth in the Aintree Champion bumper. However, it was a horse that finished two places in front of Population at Aintree that took the race and he won it impressively.

Court Minstrel had shown progressive form in bumpers prior to his Aintree fourth. Following a convincing victory at Ludlow, he finished a close second (also at Ludlow) to Tistory. Tistory will surely be one of Nicky Henderson’s most exciting novice hurdlers this season and Court Minstrel was arguably an unlucky loser in a contest where the front pair pulled well clear of the third. This was the first indication of the significant ability he possessed. Another return to Ludlow saw him pull off an eleven length demolition of his rivals and connections of this attractive son of Court Cave were understandably tempted by Aintree.

At Aintree Evan Williams’ charge was held up early in nineteenth of nineteen before gradually making his way through the pack to look threatening before not quite seeing out the 2m1f trip. In the end it turned into a stamina test with The New One, a potentially exceptional staying hurdler, coming out on top.

On that form Court Minstrel had every right to win Friday’s race and he did so in a manner which suggested he could be in contention for the big prize come March. As is his style, Court Minstrel was again dropped out in last place by Paul Moloney. Jumping neatly throughout, Court Minstrel travelled noticeably strongly, even on occasion pulling for his head, and soon after jumping the fourth last his rider let out an inch of rein to move through a swiftly closing gap. This was potentially the most impressive part of the race as he had passed four horses in just a couple of strides. From then on Paul Moloney kept having to pull him back in order to contain his effort for the finish and he remained firmly on the bridle until shaken up just after the last at which point he stormed up the Cheltenham hill pulling nearly 4 lengths clear of The Romford Pele.

This was as encouraging a hurdling debut as one could expect. He looks to have plenty of scope and there must be significant improvement in him as he is still struggling to completely settle. A large field and fast pace are likely to be his optimum conditions but as he gains experience he should become more amenable. There is the danger of overrating this performance as on face value it looks to be more about style than substance. His main rival in the race was supposed to be Population but his rider, Denis O’Regan, was unhappy some way out and he had to be pulled up with something clearly amiss. The Romford Pele had marked himself out as a good prospect with a seventh place finish in the Cheltenham Champion Bumper, just one place behind the winner of Aintree’s equivalent The New One, but he had been beaten at odds-on at Market Rasen on hurdling debut and at Cheltenham he handed any advantage he had over to Court Minstrel with a sloppy jump at the last. In third was Titan De Sarti, who has largely been disappointing in his career to date and merely stayed on here suggesting a step up in trip is the next logical step.

Despite the lack of substance, the style of Court Minstrel’s win was particularly exciting and the strength of his bumper form suggests he is certainly a novice hurdler worth bearing in mind for the Supreme as the season progresses.

Masterson Holdings Hurdle

In contrast to the jumps bred Court Minstrel, who had learnt his trade in bumpers, Dodging Bullets was bred by Frankie Dettori for the flat. By Dubawi, he was in training with Andrew Oliver where he managed to win twice on the level before being bought to go juvenile hurdling. Placed in the care of champion trainer Paul Nicholls he had three runs last season, showing distinct promise in two of them, and his trainer had described him as the best maiden hurdler in training.

On his hurdling debut in the Grade 2 Dovecote at Kempton Dodging Bullets came up against Grumeti, a leading Triumph Hurdle fancy at the time he had already won twice and fallen once when victory was certain. Dodging Bullets finished only 1½ lengths behind Grumeti in the end having shown signs of his evident inexperience. His second start was at the Cheltenham Festival in the Triumph Hurdle where he showed the benefit of his first race over hurdles by finishing fourth, only a head behind Grumeti this time. He travelled well before only failing for lack of stamina in the gruelling test that last season’s Triumph became. It is sensible to ignore his final start of last season at Aintree as he was badly hampered and was possibly feeling the effects of a long flat season in 2011 followed by three relatively quick hard races over hurdles.

He has been leading fancy for the 2013 Supreme Novices ever since and his seasonal debut was highly anticipated. He was heavily backed on his first start over hurdles out of graded company, and in a sense he delivered what he promised with an emphatic 8 length win but there are niggling doubts left over him.

During the first part of the race Dodging Bullets pulled hard but that is understandable as he is still lightly raced over hurdles and this was a small field which was taken along at a slow pace. As the race developed and the pace quickened he eventually settled ok in behind the leading pair of Hi Note and second favourite Baby Mix. On the whole he jumped fluently but at the fourth last he was slow and suddenly there appeared to be a significant gap between him and the leaders. For a brief moment he looked in trouble but Ruby Walsh asked for extra effort and Dodging Bullets responded well. From then on each time Ruby asked Dodging Bullets to make ground he did so quickly. He reached the last upsides Hi Note, took it well, and powered clear up the hill. Paul Nicholls was keen to point out after the race that this four-year-old Dubawi gelding had had a breathing operation over the summer and would improve for the run.

The principle danger to Dodging Bullets beforehand looked to be Baby Mix but he again finished tamely into third having travelled well. He was giving Dodging Bullets 8lbs and may have needed the run but there must be serious concerns over his temperament and or soundness now. The second placed Hi Note is a tough, improving filly over hurdles and the form of her recent Stratford romp was boosted at Kempton on Sunday but one would hope that in future Dodging Bullets would be capable of brushing her aside more easily if he is to take high rank amongst the novice hurdlers. He had to be pushed by Ruby Walsh to make ground a number of times during the race and for him to be thought of as a really strong Supreme contender I would prefer to see him make these moves on the bridle. He may have hit a flat spot on Saturday, such a characteristic could be terminal in higher quality contests, but this may also just be a fitness issue, as Nicholls pointed out he should “be better for the experience”, in which case it is important not to judge him too harshly on the somewhat laboured style of this victory. Dodging Bullets may look a completely different proposition on his next start.