Cheltenham Preview: Ryanair Chase Antepost

The trouble with antepost betting on the Cheltenham festival, at the moment, is that so many horses have a number of different options. This is particularly the case with the novice hurdlers and chasers. As a result, unless you have the word of the trainer or feel like it is worth taking the slightly bigger price when there is a risk of the horse going elsewhere, many of the races at this stage look decidedly unappealing as betting propositions. With the championship races it appears easier to ascertain the likely runners but then when one looks at the Champion Hurdle market there are doubts among a number of horses due to setbacks through the season or a desire to go up in trip and face the mighty Big Buck’s. Even the Gold Cup has problems; in that one of the most interesting runners (and my selection at this stage) is a novice, who theoretically has 3 or 4 options in March. Outside of Grands Crus there appears little value at this stage. The World Hurdle market does have value in it if you are willing to oppose Big Buck’s but again those with potential have various doubts about their participation. This leaves the Champion Case and the Ryanair. It is far easier to predict the fields in these races but in the Champion Chase there are very few contenders and again there appears to be little value outside of choosing a novice who is just as likely to go for the Arkle. Hence, the festival race it is best to concentrate on at this stage from an antepost perspective is the Ryanair Chase over 2 miles and 5 furlongs.

Outside of Captain Chris and Finian’s Rainbow, who will probably in run in the Gold Cup and Queen Mother Champion Chase respectively, the only doubts revolve around fitness. Riverside Theatre, Realt Dubh and, the two times Ryanair Chase winner, Albertas Run would be serious contenders for the race were they to run but due to injuries there are question marks over the participation of each horse. Of the more definite runners at this stage; Rubi Light, Medermit, Gauvain, Somersby and Great Endeavour all seem to have chances on what they have done this season. However, the two I am most keen on now are Noble Prince and Kauto Stone. 

Noble Prince won the Jewson novices chase over 2 miles and a half at Cheltenham on Ryanair Chase day last year. This was an impressive performance and he beat the highest rated novice of last season, Wishfull Thinking, by 4 lengths. It also showed that he handled the course well and the stiff finish seemed to suit him. Then he fell when looking like disposing of the, aforementioned Arkle third, Realt Dubh in the Powers Gold Cup (Grade 1) at Fairyhouse. This season, following a win in a non event at Naas, the Montjeu gelding has run second to Big Zeb twice at 2 miles and in chasing down the former Champion Chaser, who has looked as good as ever this season, Noble Prince has done his Ryanair claims no harm at all and has probably enhanced them. On both occasions he ran extremely well over a trip that is essentially too short for him to be seen at his best.

My concern over Noble Prince is that the form of the Jewson Novices’ Chase has not worked out this season. Wishfull Thinking (2^nd) and Loosen My Load (3^rd) have been hugely disappointing on the whole, and Radium (4^th) has been sent back to France. The form of all last season’s 2m4f+ novice chasers has looked suspect and I would be wary of backing anything from that category for the 2012 festival.

Paul Nolan has said today that the next race for Noble Prince will be in the Normans Grove Chase at Fairyhouse over 2m1f. He will not face the likes of Big Zeb and Sizing Europe so it should be a race for the taking. If he wins it like he should then his price will shorten slightly but at the moment he is 6/1, half the price of Kauto Stone who I believe at 12/1 looks the value call in the race.

During his time in France Kauto Stone amassed over £500,000 in prize money and he managed to win three chases, as a 4 year old, including the Grade 1 Prix Maurice Millois (won by Long Run in 2009). This performance made him officially the best 4yo chaser in France and he was subsequently bought by Robin Geffen who sent him to Paul Nicholls. As Kauto Star’s half brother he was always going to be an exciting prospect and with his facile success in the grade 2 Ladbrokes.com Chase at Down Royal he did nothing to dampen the enthusiasm for him. After the 2m4f race Nicholls said ‘the Ryanair is an obvious target in the spring’ and this is still the case. Last time out Kauto Stone ran in a soft ground Tingle Creek over 2miles. With his best trip being further than 2m it was thought the soft ground would help make the Sandown race more of a stamina test thereby giving him a good chance of defeating a field which lacked depth. Paul Nicholls successfully did the same thing with Kauto Star on two occasions but with Kauto Stone he was not quite so lucky. Kauto Stone ran extremely well in coming second to the current Champion Chaser Sizing Europe, he was upsides for a long way and it was just between two out and the last that the extra pace and turn of foot that Henry De Bromhead’s horse told. At Down Royal on his first start he made a couple of jumping errors and at Sandown he did much the same with a particularly bad one at the notoriously difficult third and final railway fence. In spite of this, he jumped well in the main and it is probably true that travelling at grade 1 pace over 2m, against an exceptional jumper in Sizing Europe, probably tested his fencing to the limit.

Whilst he was no match for the winner he ran very much as if a step up in trip would benefit and in fairness he did beat Cornas, who had his ideal conditions (a fast run 2m on softish ground), by 5 lengths. In the Haldon Gold Cup, over 2 furlongs further, Medermit only beat Cornas by 1¾ lengths. This then was a very useful performance over 2m and in a race on slow ground without Big Zeb or Sizing Europe he would probably be hard to beat. His next run is likely to be in the Betfair Ascot Chase over the same distance as the Ryanair, where he could face Captain Chris. I’m sure, much like his half-brother, he will improve for the extra distance and he may well win, especially if he sharpens up his jumping. Were this to happen his price would be slashed for the Ryanair and he could challenge for favouritism.

The concerns for those thinking of backing Kauto Stone for the Ryanair Chase are twofold. With him running so well behind the reigning champion chaser over 2m and with the sudden dearth of 2m chasing talent at Ditcheat, now Master Minded and Tataniano are out, Nicholls may decide to go for the shorter championship race. Al Ferof is being considered for the Queen Mother Champion Chase as well but even if he was to run in the Arkle instead, I still find it unlikely that they would run Kauto Stone against Sizing Europe again, as on the Sandown form has no hope of beating him. The second concern would be Kauto Stone’s apparent preference for softer ground than he will almost certainly encounter at Cheltenham. He won his grade 1 in France over 2m6f on heavy going and his impressive win at Down Royal was also in testing conditions but he is not a big, heavy horse so 2m 5f on decent ground should be fine and Kauto Star actually prefers a sounder surface. In summation, the Ryanair Chase looks the perfect race for him and with no standout in what looks an open renewal, Kauto Stone is the selection.