The disappointment of Simonsig taking
up his entry in the Neptune Investment Management Novices’ hurdle instead of
the Supreme has taken a while to get over but I am just about there now and I
feel it is appropriate to put up another selection for the race.
Looking at the Supreme field it
appears to be a weaker group than has often been the case, particularly
compared to last season’s vintage renewal, and with the outstanding candidate Simonsig
going elsewhere it has been left to another Henderson inmate, Darlan, to take
up the mantle as favourite. Darlan has
been highly vaunted all his life and after his 27 length victory in his bumper great
things were expected. He has generally been impressive but worryingly for
favourite backers his worst performance was over the course in December and he
is coming into the race off the back of a heavy fall at Newbury. That run looked
likely to be his best yet and had he won or been in the first three then his
current price may be justified. However, it is plausible that he would have
found little coming off the bridle and finished 5th. We are still unsure of
what he will find when asked, and despite his tall reputation at home this question
mark stands, therefore 9/2 is simply too short to consider taking.
I also have doubts over the next
few in the market, all at single figures. Steps
To Freedom looked one of the top bumper horses last season having won the
Aintree bumper in good style and has been at or near the top of the betting for
the Supreme Novices ever since. Following a productive flat season Jessie
Harrington’s charge won his first two hurdle races comfortably and he was sent
to Cheltenham in November in order to gain experience of the track. At the time
managing to beat Prospect Wells looked high class form, especially with the
promising Ericht back in third. Subsequent events have shown this form to be
far weaker than first impressions indicated with Prospect Wells being exposed
next time in a handicap at Ascot and Ericht showing little to nothing in three
subsequent starts. Steps To Freedom was probably better than he showed that day
on the back of a hard flat season and two quick hurdle runs but I still doubt
whether he will be quite good enough here.
Galileos Choice is next in the betting but I see his price as being
mainly based around his flat form, which is admittedly high class, as his
hurdle runs haven’t been at a standard where he deserves to be 7/1 for the
Supreme. He should have won the Royal Bond were he a genuine contender, instead
he lost to a stayer in Sous Les Cieux and then he beat a four mile chaser next
time in the manner one would expect. Galileos Choice may improve for faster
ground and he is still lightly raced so there should be more to come but his
trainer is gearing him up for a full flat season. Dermot Weld has also said he
doubts his horse has enough experience for a race of this nature and as a
result I am content in avoiding him.
Cinders And Ashes since his horror mistake at Ascot, costing him
the race, has jumped well and shown a great deal of class in a couple of
comfortable heavy ground victories in the north. This added to his useful
bumper form from last season marks him out as a major contender for the race.
Saying that, he finished tamely in the Cheltenham Champion Bumper having
travelled smoothly and has beaten little of note since defeating Keys, who has
let the form down subsequently anyway. Donald McCain’s novice, by Beat Hollow,
has solid credentials but it would surprise me were there not a horse with bit
more class in there capable of swooping past him up the famous Cheltenham Hill.
The final Horse generally
available in single figures at the moment is the Willie Mullins trained Midnight Game. He is a horse with an eye-catching
progressive profile and last time out he pulled away nicely from a talented
yardstick in Dylan Ross. With further likely improvement likely to come due to
the sounder surface, he will likely face at Cheltenham, he looks a leading
contender and the 10/1 available in the odd place is reasonable. This son of
Montjeu is also a reportedly good home worker which is why it is so unnerving
to hear Willie Mullins be so disappointed with his recent efforts, as such he
is no longer a definite runner and, even if he was, these negative reports so
close to the race would be enough to put anyone off getting involved now or on
the day.
Midnight Game is owned by the Gigginstown
juggernaut and their retained jockey, Davy Russell, is going to have a tough
decision to make as he will also have the option of riding my selection TRIFOLIUM. He is 14/1 generally and if
Davy Russell does decide to ride him then he will be significantly shorter. I
had my concerns about the Charles Byrnes runner after his last run and at the
time it seemed like he may not even run at Cheltenham, but now that seems very
much the plan. One of my concerns is that all his best form is on soft/heavy
ground and he has seemed to enjoy the test of ploughing through mud over 2 miles.
It is to be taken on trust that he will handle the quicker ground at Cheltenham
and for him to win he will need to improve for it as well but his trainer is
confident he will do. I am willing to believe him now seeing as the Supreme is
his target and the way he quickened so impressively last time suggests he
should have the necessary speed to compete over the minimum trip on the
projected ground.
Trifolium was not fully extended on
his most recent start and yet he beat Simenon, well regarded by Willie Mullins,
by nine lengths. The rate of improvement he has shown suggests he is one of the
few in the Supreme who could still be anything and since the application of cheek
pieces he has jumped accurately, a trait that is necessary for this race, which,
in all likelihood, will be run at a furious pace. Davy Russell has mentioned a
worry that Trifolium has so far pulled quite hard which will have a detrimental
effect on his Cheltenham challenge and this was the excuse given for his
convincing defeat by So Young. He was far better at Punchestown though and So
Young is an extremely high class animal who should be challenging Big Buck’s,
hence there was no disgrace in that performance. This was probably Trifolium’s
only run against top class opposition and he seemed to fail which must niggle but
he was not at his best that day and even so, without Simonsig in the field,
there does not appear to be a truly top class horse in opposition. At 14/1 this
son of Goldneyev (also the sire of Balder Succes) is value and there is scope
to shorten, with the possibility of him becoming the only Gigginstown House
Stud representative, even if he isn’t, money will surely come for him given the
doubts around many of the others. With so much potential and all the necessary
attributes to be competitive in a Supreme Novices’ Hurdle, Trifolium has every
chance of kicking off the meeting with an Irish victory.
The Rest
Colour Squadron and Montbazon are
closely matched having beaten each other at Newbury this season. Colour Squadron was travelling strongly
when falling last time and could have beaten Montbazon again, in which case he
is overpriced at the moment. His tendency to hang is a huge concern, though, as
he showed when giving away the Tolworth and he possibly prefers softer ground.
This would be enough to put me off him and I don’t rate Montbazon any higher. He looks to me the sort who will appreciate
further and is yet to excite me over hurdles in the way he did in bumpers. Tetlami, a winner of a Cheltenham
bumper, is a solid candidate for
Nicky Henderson but the vibes from the yard are that Darlan is their number one.
He is probably underestimated, as he is not a flashy sort, but his form at
Kempton has taken a knock with Vulcanite’s recent run at Newbury. It was Vulcanite’s first run over obstacles when
second to Tetlami at Kempton and he has surely improved since then. Having
gained experience he is possibly capable of reversing that form, especially
with the progress in his jumping which is now superior to anything else in the
field. This is so important at Cheltenham hence at a big price it would be no
surprise to see him finish in the frame. Last time at Newbury he was not ridden
to best effect and he must be better than he showed there.
Prospect Wells has come in for support recently with him being seen
as a value bet considering his proximity to Steps To Freedom at the Paddy Power
meeting in November. I take the view that Jessica Harington’s star novice was
below his best that day and Prospect Wells was flattered. Since then Paul
Nicholls’ charge has been exposed as below top class and his last run, behind
Colour Squadron at Sandown, was lamentable. He reportedly had a breathing
problem there, which has been fixed, but it is very rare for a horse to run so
poorly on his final start before Cheltenham and still win the Supreme.
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