Much of what makes recognising the best novice hurdlers
difficult is the necessity to differentiate between horses winning impressively
against inferior opposition and horses being pushed hard to win higher quality races.
This season we have Dodging Bullets and Jezki who have won strong races but
with little in hand. Admittedly, Jezki did run away with a grade 1 last time
but that was not the race it first appeared and I am referring here to his
defeat of Champagne Fever and Zuzka etc. It is difficult to knock what they
have achieved, both appearing to be at the level required to compete in a
Supreme Novices. Yet, with their ventures into graded company we are able to
gauge, far more easily, what they might be capable of. At this stage I find
myself drawn to those who are still to hint at what level they could achieve,
the likes of Puffin Billy, albeit he is still more likely to head for the
Neptune, and, to a certain extent, My Tent Or Yours, now the jumping has come together it is hard to put a limit on his ability.
On Saturday we arguably witnessed the best and most exciting example of this in
Ireland. Despite the desperate weather claiming all the racing worth watching in
Britain, Naas managed to survive and a novice many people had been yearning to
see again, Un Atout, dismantled his field.
Willie Mullins' five-year-old son of Robin Des Champs was
imperious, just as he had been on his previous two starts under rules. On his hurdling debut at Navan, Un
Atout controlled the race from the front and came home untested from what I
hope will turn out to be a reasonable field. The second (Fickle Fortune) and
fourth (Some Article) are potentially very useful but neither has been given
the opportunity to show it thus far. Davy Russell was unlikely to have the same
opportunity to dictate the pace at Naas, however, as Un Atout came up against
perennial front runner Rory O’Moore. There was a moment on Saturday when it
seemed as if Rory O’Moore was unwilling to start, in which case Un Atout would
have had to make his own running, but after some cajoling from, jockey, Andrew McNamara
the race took shape as expected. Often Rory O’Moore can go very hard from the
front and this may well have benefitted Davy Russell on Un Atout but in the energy
sapping conditions this was not feasible.
Settled in behind the leader, Un Atout took a hold to begin
with, as the pace was no more than a dawdle, but once they had jumped the
second he relaxed, travelling well within himself. He moved up alongside Rory O’Moore
at the third last and the race looked in safe keeping from then on, barring any
mishaps. Mishaps were unlikely though as his jumping was nearly spot on, he was
quick and nimble when in close to the hurdles, while he was able to stretch out
when necessary as well, with the highlight of the whole round coming at the
second last as he drew away from his ‘competition’. It could not have been more comfortable for Un
Atout and his rider, Un Atout just cantered
all over this field and sauntered away, expending as little effort as is
possible in a race over two miles on heavy ground. He was evidently in a
different league, despite the second and third both winning novice hurdles
previously, and he is yet to show any sign of inexperience despite only having
raced three times. Everything he has done in his career suggests that he
is a high class novice hurdler and despite lacking the form and substance of
Jezki I would mark him down as Ireland’s best chance of winning the 2013
Supreme Novices' Hurdle.
This does not mean he deserves to be favourite for the race.
On what he has actually achieved so far he probably shouldn’t be any shorter
than 10/1. I can understand why he is so short as he is such an exciting
prospect, who at the moment has limitless potential, and the confidence behind
him from his top stable is more than encouraging. Unfortunately, there must be
question marks over him, the first of which is what has he actually beaten?
When one considers Jezki, for instance, he has beaten last season’s Champion Bumper
winner in Champagne Fever, an ultra-impressive winner of a subsequent grade 3
hurdle in Zuzka, and numerous highly regarded novices including, Waaheb, Bright
New Dawn, Ally Cascade, Minsk and Sizing Rio, all relatively easily. His
jumping still leaves something to be desired but his form is almost unquestionable
and it will be difficult to match in the in the next 50 days. Even My Tent Or
Yours, who is still more style over substance, has beaten a subsequent grade 1
winner. Un Atout beat nothing of note in his bumper and on his first start over
obstacles nothing in behind capable of showing decent form has done so yet.
On
Saturday Un Atout managed to put 19 lengths between him and Rory O’Moore, while
on the bridle. Last time out, Jezki did something similar but put 58 lengths
between himself and this front running son of Stowaway. It is very easy to read
too much into this, however, as heavy ground form in Ireland can be unreliable
while at the same time I am sure Rory O’Moore ran massively below form behind
Jezki as he was harried for the lead and, in fact, had to concede it to Sizing
Rio which was entirely unsuitable. It is sensible to judge Rory O’Moore on his
run behind Un Atout, it is also sensible not to judge the respective merits of
Un Atout and Jezki on the performances of this one horse. Like many of the
current antepost favourites for the Cheltenham Festival (including Sprinter
Sacre, Simonsig, Dynaste and Bobs Worth) it is difficult to be negative about
Jezki but he does not leave me with the same impression that Un Atout does
despite having achieved more, there is just the sense that Un Atout could be
something special, hopefully on his next start, possibly in the Deloitte, we
will find out whether or not this assertion is misguided.
If Un Atout does run next in the Deloitte Novice Hurdle he
will run over further than two miles for the first time. It is only two
furlongs further and should make little difference to him but it does point to
another question over Un Atout, does he need further than two miles? Breeding
suggests this is likely and after his seasonal debut at Navan, Willie Mullins
and Davy Russell both indicated he was a stayer in the making. However, the prevalence
of staying novice hurdlers trained by Willie Mullins and owned by, Un Atout’s
owners, Gigginstown House Stud has led to Un Atout being their Supreme Novices horse.
It is possible that without any other novices to place he would be Neptune
bound but from what I have seen Un Atout will be ideally suited to two miles round
Cheltenham anyway. He shows so much class in his races that a faster pace could
improve him, while the frenetic gallop which he will face in March can bring his
apparent stamina into play. Willie Mullins is now confident that he has the
necessary gears to stick to two miles and the way Un Atout has pulled away from
his rivals so far makes it difficult to argue otherwise.
Finally, this relation of Sir Des Champs has been
advertising his Supreme credentials in very soft ground in Ireland and there
has to be a question mark over whether these are the conditions he needs to
perform at his best. Un Atout clearly handles testing going well but that would not put me
off for Cheltenham. He doesn’t possess the action of horse that needs it deep
and I would be far happier to suggest that he will, if anything, improve for
the better ground as I have mentioned before.
With Jezki heading straight to Cheltenham his position at
the head of the betting for the Festival’s curtain raiser may be safe for the time
being but I suspect, if My Tent Or Yours hasn’t got there first by winning the
Betfair Hurdle, after Un Atout’s next foray onto the track it will be under
serious threat.
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