Supreme Novices’ Hurdle Prediction: 1-2-3

Despite the incessant reading, listening, tweeting and thinking about Cheltenham, it is somewhat hard to believe that the Festival has all but arrived. Throughout the season I have tried to set out my views on the key trials for the Supreme, detailing how the possible contenders have shaped and hopefully pointing out reasons for and against supporting each horse in advance of the big race next week. It should have become clear who I am keenest on but just in case, now seems the right time to definitively predict the result. Here are the three I fancy to finish first, second and third:

3^rd – Champagne Fever

With the strongest Irish form available it might seem foolish to leave Jezki out of the top three, especially when he has already beaten the third place selection in the Royal Bond Novice Hurdle. Despite doing all that has been asked of him this season, there are reasons to think Jezki will not achieve at Cheltenham what many people are expecting. His emphatic victory at Leopardstown last time forced many to sit up and take notice of this son of Milan but the form has since been let down by Waaheb who during that race at Leopardstown made a horrendous blunder thereby exaggerating the winning distance. There are still concerns about Jezki’s jumping, despite showing significant improvement travelling left-handed, and the good ground he apparently needs to be seen at his best is not materialising. He may, on the face of it, standout as a solid each-way play, but despite preferring to see Jezki’s last run at Cheltenham as largely irrelevant, the way he faded up the hill behind Champagne Fever continues to niggle. The received wisdom is that Willie Mullins’ gangly grey lacks the speed for two miles and the late wavering over his target, between this and the three mile Albert Bartlett, can only be a negative. However, he managed to hold off much ‘faster’ rivals in the Champion Bumper when there were similar concerns and the recent rain will help, he could prove just as hard to pass at Cheltenham over hurdles. I suspect he will lack the speed to win this race but he still looks capable of finishing in the frame. There will likely come a point in the race where he looks sure to be swamped, yet his jumping is good and bold enough to keep him in front for a long way, while his class should help him see off a number of overrated rivals. More than three horses could easily pass Champagne Fever, but such is his abundant stamina, I can see the speedier contenders trying to compete with My Tent Or Yours’ turn of foot and failing, finishing tired, while the stoutly bred son of Stowaway flies up the hill, snatching a place.

2^nd – My Tent Or Yours

Recent defeats for heavily backed, short priced favourites in the Supreme should not be a reason to oppose My Tent Or Yours. He was sensationally impressive in the Betfair Hurdle at Newbury, with three progressive young handicappers making the frame. Nothing in behind can be used to hold the form down, so in a misguided attempt to crab the performance, a slow pace and a beneficially prominent ride have been given as reasons to knock My Tent Or Yours. If anything, I expect a faster pace would have seen Nicky Henderson’s charge appear even more imperious, given his tendency to pull hard. Some have even questioned what My Tent Or Yours finds off the bridle since his Newbury rout. Well from what I could see about ten lengths, but that is debatable, what isn’t debatable is the amount he found to beat subsequent Grade 1 winning hurdler Taquin Du Seuil on hurdling debut, having jumped atrociously. That is no longer an issue with the Desert Prince gelding; his hurdling was electric in the twenty one runner Betfair Hurdle. He is developing rapidly and it would have been no surprise to see My Tent Or Yours run in the Champion Hurdle. In my opinion, this speedster is nearly bombproof as favourite and he has never struck me as being a particularly short price. I will be shocked if, barring injury, incident or illness, My Tent Or Yours does not finish in the first two on Tuesday. Consequently, it might be more sensible to select him as my winner given that I can easily envisage him taking the Festival curtain raiser in a similar fashion to the Betfair Hurdle, but there is a chance another is better and that is a chance I am willing to take.

1^st – Un Atout

The only horse in the field that I can imagine matching or bettering My Tent Or Yours is Un Atout. There was barely a more impressive, jaw-dropping bumper performance during the 2011/2012 season and his hurdling debut this time around was eagerly anticipated. Yet again he mastered his rivals with little effort, dominating the race from the front. The level of opposition he faced at Navan is questionable and the two horses that could have given a level to the form have been deprived the chance of boosting it since; with the fourth, Some Article, being carried out next time, and the second, Fickle Fortune, subsequently suffering a season ending injury. Fickle Fortune herself was an extremely pacey horse in bumpers, thus giving encouragement to those who felt Un Atout would have the speed for grade 1 races over two miles. This was despite the immediate post race comments from his trainer suggesting he is a prospective staying chaser. His jumping on debut was occasionally big, possibly giving rise to those comments, but he was accurate and fast on his next start and Davy Russell has been effusive with praise for his jumping since. Un Atout destroyed his field here, at Naas, on the bridle and he became the serious Supreme contender he is now with Willie Mullins making it clear afterwards that he was content to keep this imposing son of Robin Des Champs at two miles. This was another piece of form potentially lacking strength, with the unreliable Rory O’Moore finishing nineteen lengths away in second. The third though, Art Of Logistics, has won since at Fairyhouse, defeating the aforementioned, and still highly regarded, Waaheb, in the process. The ground at Naas was very deep and Art Of Logistics may not have handled it but the form boost he delivered at least gives substance to Un Atout’s unparalleled style.

He did miss his next intended engagement in the Deloitte due to a sub standard piece of work and even his most ardent fans have to acknowledge his lack of experience; the pace of the race, the ground, the atmosphere and the crowd at Prestbury Park will all be new to him. But he has shown no sign of temperament in his three runs so far, he is a relaxed individual and I would be confident that he will take everything in his powerful stride. The faster pace and the potential emphasis on stamina created by the likes of his stablemate Champagne Fever should suit, while there is still scope for him to improve on the quicker surface at Cheltenham. The Festival will almost certainly start on soft but it will be far removed from the deep, heavy ground Un Atout has faced runs over hurdles up to now.

This will be a truly hot renewal of the Supreme but at Willie Mullins' Closutton base Un Atout is housed in an elite group of three along with Sir Des Champs and Hurricane Fly, and I fancy he can match his illustrious neighbours' success at the Cheltenham Festival in this, the most anticipated race of the year.

1. Un Atout
2. My Tent Or Yours
3. Champagne Fever

Supreme Novices Update: Un Atout (Naas)

Much of what makes recognising the best novice hurdlers difficult is the necessity to differentiate between horses winning impressively against inferior opposition and horses being pushed hard to win higher quality races. This season we have Dodging Bullets and Jezki who have won strong races but with little in hand. Admittedly, Jezki did run away with a grade 1 last time but that was not the race it first appeared and I am referring here to his defeat of Champagne Fever and Zuzka etc. It is difficult to knock what they have achieved, both appearing to be at the level required to compete in a Supreme Novices. Yet, with their ventures into graded company we are able to gauge, far more easily, what they might be capable of. At this stage I find myself drawn to those who are still to hint at what level they could achieve, the likes of Puffin Billy, albeit he is still more likely to head for the Neptune, and, to a certain extent, My Tent Or Yours, now the jumping has come together it is hard to put a limit on his ability. On Saturday we arguably witnessed the best and most exciting example of this in Ireland. Despite the desperate weather claiming all the racing worth watching in Britain, Naas managed to survive and a novice many people had been yearning to see again, Un Atout, dismantled his field.

Willie Mullins' five-year-old son of Robin Des Champs was imperious, just as he had been on his previous two starts under rules. On his hurdling debut at Navan, Un Atout controlled the race from the front and came home untested from what I hope will turn out to be a reasonable field. The second (Fickle Fortune) and fourth (Some Article) are potentially very useful but neither has been given the opportunity to show it thus far. Davy Russell was unlikely to have the same opportunity to dictate the pace at Naas, however, as Un Atout came up against perennial front runner Rory O’Moore. There was a moment on Saturday when it seemed as if Rory O’Moore was unwilling to start, in which case Un Atout would have had to make his own running, but after some cajoling from, jockey, Andrew McNamara the race took shape as expected. Often Rory O’Moore can go very hard from the front and this may well have benefitted Davy Russell on Un Atout but in the energy sapping conditions this was not feasible.

Settled in behind the leader, Un Atout took a hold to begin with, as the pace was no more than a dawdle, but once they had jumped the second he relaxed, travelling well within himself. He moved up alongside Rory O’Moore at the third last and the race looked in safe keeping from then on, barring any mishaps. Mishaps were unlikely though as his jumping was nearly spot on, he was quick and nimble when in close to the hurdles, while he was able to stretch out when necessary as well, with the highlight of the whole round coming at the second last as he drew away from his ‘competition’.  It could not have been more comfortable for Un Atout and his rider, Un Atout just cantered all over this field and sauntered away, expending as little effort as is possible in a race over two miles on heavy ground. He was evidently in a different league, despite the second and third both winning novice hurdles previously, and he is yet to show any sign of inexperience despite only having raced three times. Everything he has done in his career suggests that he is a high class novice hurdler and despite lacking the form and substance of Jezki I would mark him down as Ireland’s best chance of winning the 2013 Supreme Novices' Hurdle.

This does not mean he deserves to be favourite for the race. On what he has actually achieved so far he probably shouldn’t be any shorter than 10/1. I can understand why he is so short as he is such an exciting prospect, who at the moment has limitless potential, and the confidence behind him from his top stable is more than encouraging. Unfortunately, there must be question marks over him, the first of which is what has he actually beaten? When one considers Jezki, for instance, he has beaten last season’s Champion Bumper winner in Champagne Fever, an ultra-impressive winner of a subsequent grade 3 hurdle in Zuzka, and numerous highly regarded novices including, Waaheb, Bright New Dawn, Ally Cascade, Minsk and Sizing Rio, all relatively easily. His jumping still leaves something to be desired but his form is almost unquestionable and it will be difficult to match in the in the next 50 days. Even My Tent Or Yours, who is still more style over substance, has beaten a subsequent grade 1 winner. Un Atout beat nothing of note in his bumper and on his first start over obstacles nothing in behind capable of showing decent form has done so yet. 

On Saturday Un Atout managed to put 19 lengths between him and Rory O’Moore, while on the bridle. Last time out, Jezki did something similar but put 58 lengths between himself and this front running son of Stowaway. It is very easy to read too much into this, however, as heavy ground form in Ireland can be unreliable while at the same time I am sure Rory O’Moore ran massively below form behind Jezki as he was harried for the lead and, in fact, had to concede it to Sizing Rio which was entirely unsuitable. It is sensible to judge Rory O’Moore on his run behind Un Atout, it is also sensible not to judge the respective merits of Un Atout and Jezki on the performances of this one horse. Like many of the current antepost favourites for the Cheltenham Festival (including Sprinter Sacre, Simonsig, Dynaste and Bobs Worth) it is difficult to be negative about Jezki but he does not leave me with the same impression that Un Atout does despite having achieved more, there is just the sense that Un Atout could be something special, hopefully on his next start, possibly in the Deloitte, we will find out whether or not this assertion is misguided.

If Un Atout does run next in the Deloitte Novice Hurdle he will run over further than two miles for the first time. It is only two furlongs further and should make little difference to him but it does point to another question over Un Atout, does he need further than two miles? Breeding suggests this is likely and after his seasonal debut at Navan, Willie Mullins and Davy Russell both indicated he was a stayer in the making. However, the prevalence of staying novice hurdlers trained by Willie Mullins and owned by, Un Atout’s owners, Gigginstown House Stud has led to Un Atout being their Supreme Novices horse. It is possible that without any other novices to place he would be Neptune bound but from what I have seen Un Atout will be ideally suited to two miles round Cheltenham anyway. He shows so much class in his races that a faster pace could improve him, while the frenetic gallop which he will face in March can bring his apparent stamina into play. Willie Mullins is now confident that he has the necessary gears to stick to two miles and the way Un Atout has pulled away from his rivals so far makes it difficult to argue otherwise.

Finally, this relation of Sir Des Champs has been advertising his Supreme credentials in very soft ground in Ireland and there has to be a question mark over whether these are the conditions he needs to perform at his best. Un Atout clearly handles testing going well but that would not put me off for Cheltenham. He doesn’t possess the action of horse that needs it deep and I would be far happier to suggest that he will, if anything, improve for the better ground as I have mentioned before.

With Jezki heading straight to Cheltenham his position at the head of the betting for the Festival’s curtain raiser may be safe for the time being but I suspect, if My Tent Or Yours hasn’t got there first by winning the Betfair Hurdle, after Un Atout’s next foray onto the track it will be under serious threat.

Supreme Novices Update: Un Atout

Arguably, the horse to take from this weekend with the Supreme in mind didn’t even run. The form of My Tent Or Yours’ commanding win at Ascot was comprehensively boosted by Taquin Du Seuil on Friday when he took the Grade 2 novices’ hurdle at Sandown with consummate ease. The price of My Tent Or Yours for the Supreme collapsed after the event and considering how poorly he jumped against Taquin Du Seuil, one could be forgiven for holding sky high expectations for Nicky Henderson’s charge once he gets his act together. Taquin Du Seuil won on Friday over two-and-a-half miles, he appreciated the soft ground and must be thought of more as a Neptune Investment Management Novices' Hurdle horse. His trainer, Jonjo O’Neil, was not ruling the Supreme out, however, and he may have a difficult decision to make come March.

Another trainer likely to have some tough decisions to make in March is Willie Mullins. He has a host of novice hurdlers capable of running over trips between two and three miles and this weekend we saw another one join the ranks at Navan in the shape of Un Atout.

Un Atout arrived at Willie Mullins’ yard with a tall reputation and he was sent off at 2/7 on his racecourse debut in a bumper at Naas. With Patrick Mullins in the saddle he settled comfortably in front with just the outsider of seven, Foxland, for company. Unsurprisingly, Foxland dropped away relatively early and it was then left to main market rival, Directors Forum, to challenge, but while Mullins sat motionless, content with his mount cruising along, the rider on Directors Forum was hard at work on the final bend and eventually dropped away too, leaving Emily O to give chase. She may have got within four lengths but then at the two furlong pole Mullins nudged him forward and Un Atout stretched clear in a dominant, destructive manner, finishing 24 lengths ahead of the runner-up. This performance in early January was, to my eyes, the most impressive bumper display of last season. Willie Mullins had hoped to run him in one more bumper but he suffered muscle problems and was sensibly put away with a campaign over obstacles in mind.

For anyone who had seen his bumper, Un Atout’s hurdling debut at Navan on Saturday was highly anticipated. Over two miles, like his bumper, he was again happy to settle in front. This time, with Davy Russell on board to dictate the pace, nothing in the race was willing to challenge him for the lead, and he managed to grab a four length advantage. The pace was steady and a number in behind fought for their heads, while Un Atout was left alone able to have a clear sight of his hurdles. He jumped the first quickly but then skied the second and at the fifth he just clipped the top yet he was still sharp over it. He cleared the fourth last in style, making the ideal shape while once again being swift through the air. Russell let the field close up on the approach to the straight with the horse in second moving onto his tail. Then at the third last Un Atout got in too close and as Davy Russell shook him up to just get away from the flight after the sticky jump, Un Atout accelerated, quickly re-extending the lead. Russell sat straight back up and barely moved again as he was able to maintain the four length advantage right to the line with Fickle Fortune finishing well for second.

The most striking thing about this run was the ease with which Un Atout did it. There appeared to be so little effort involved for the horse, seemingly cantering from start to finish. While he does have room for improvement in his jumping Davy Russell’s mount was actually quite nimble over his hurdles, picking his legs up quickly when in close. He may not have put in the exuberant leaps stablemate Champagne Fever is capable of but he didn’t cede ground to his pursuers and was in fact deceptively fast from one side of the hurdle to another. I am sure as he gains experience his jumping will become an asset, or as they say in French; ‘un atout’.

Often when a heavily odds-on shot readily wins a maiden hurdle there is little of note in behind, only once upped in class can we really see how good he or she is. At Navan, Un Atout did what was expected of him, cruising to victory from an inferior field with a rise in class, no doubt, imminent. On this occasion, though, there were at least two very useful bumper performers with potential to be high class novice hurdlers in against him and they were dismissed with contempt. Noel Meade's Fickle Fortune, in receipt of 7lbs from Un Atout, had looked so exciting when winning her bumper and has been unlucky not to win since. Her problem has always been her inability to settle, but she is a pacey individual who will make her mark over hurdles and she finished a very decent second here. Some Article, purchased by J.P. McManus after convincingly winning the Goffs Land Rover Bumper at the Punchestown Festival, is also expected to make a very useful novice hurdler. While he was keen through the race, Some Article was essentially outclassed by Willie Mullins’ charge, unable to pick up as the leader sauntered away on the bridle. Un Atout was a level above this opposition on Saturday, he is already an exceptional prospect.

Whether he will win the Supreme is another matter as immediately after Saturday’s race Mullins described Un Atout as a stayer. This suggests a preference for stepping up in trip meaning that the Neptune could be the long term target. Nothing he has shown so far indicates a lack of speed for two miles, he has barely come off the bridle in two starts over the trip, conversely he will clearly have no issue over further having finished full of running each time and he is closely related to Sir Des Champs, who is out of Un Atout’s half-sister (both are by Robin Des Champs). He is very likely to be just as effective at both trips, the more important factor might be the other potential runners for the owners and the trainer. Willie Mullins’ main hope for the Neptune at this stage is Champagne Fever, he surely had his final run at two miles over hurdles last time, so unless he goes all the way up to three miles Mullins will have to aim Un Atout at the Supreme to avoid a clash. He did run both Sous Les Cieux and Make Your Mark in the Neptune last year so maybe he won’t mind having more than one runner, the real complication is the owners. They did have two runners in the Supreme last season thus it could be irrelevant but with Don Cossack they have another serious Neptune candidate and I would be very surprised if Gigginstown Stud were not keen to keep him and Un Atout apart. There has been talk of Don Cossack missing Cheltenham altogether with connections’ eyes firmly on chasing next season, leaving the path open for a Un Atout to have a tilt at the Neptune, but I find it hard to believe that Gordon Elliot would skip the meeting with his very best unless the ground was fast.

With such an inexperienced horse, like Un Atout, there will of course be doubts and there are certainly question marks over his suitability for the Cheltenham Festival. For instance, a minor concern is that we don’t know how he’ll cope being in and around horses during a race yet or whether he needs to be in front. I suspect connections have a huge amount of confidence in the horse and they have merely kept things simple in races they expect to win, such is his ability tactics should be immaterial. Another concern is that Un Atout has so far only run in testing conditions apparently relishing them each time, but as a close relative of Sir Des Champs one would expect him to handle the prevailing ground in March and he isn’t a heavy topped horse in the mould of Bog Warrior or Don Cossack. He will probably improve for the quicker ground and if his season turns out how I anticipate then he will head to Cheltenham as Ireland’s best novice hurdler.