Supreme Novices’ Hurdle Prediction: 1-2-3

Despite the incessant reading, listening, tweeting and thinking about Cheltenham, it is somewhat hard to believe that the Festival has all but arrived. Throughout the season I have tried to set out my views on the key trials for the Supreme, detailing how the possible contenders have shaped and hopefully pointing out reasons for and against supporting each horse in advance of the big race next week. It should have become clear who I am keenest on but just in case, now seems the right time to definitively predict the result. Here are the three I fancy to finish first, second and third:

3^rd – Champagne Fever

With the strongest Irish form available it might seem foolish to leave Jezki out of the top three, especially when he has already beaten the third place selection in the Royal Bond Novice Hurdle. Despite doing all that has been asked of him this season, there are reasons to think Jezki will not achieve at Cheltenham what many people are expecting. His emphatic victory at Leopardstown last time forced many to sit up and take notice of this son of Milan but the form has since been let down by Waaheb who during that race at Leopardstown made a horrendous blunder thereby exaggerating the winning distance. There are still concerns about Jezki’s jumping, despite showing significant improvement travelling left-handed, and the good ground he apparently needs to be seen at his best is not materialising. He may, on the face of it, standout as a solid each-way play, but despite preferring to see Jezki’s last run at Cheltenham as largely irrelevant, the way he faded up the hill behind Champagne Fever continues to niggle. The received wisdom is that Willie Mullins’ gangly grey lacks the speed for two miles and the late wavering over his target, between this and the three mile Albert Bartlett, can only be a negative. However, he managed to hold off much ‘faster’ rivals in the Champion Bumper when there were similar concerns and the recent rain will help, he could prove just as hard to pass at Cheltenham over hurdles. I suspect he will lack the speed to win this race but he still looks capable of finishing in the frame. There will likely come a point in the race where he looks sure to be swamped, yet his jumping is good and bold enough to keep him in front for a long way, while his class should help him see off a number of overrated rivals. More than three horses could easily pass Champagne Fever, but such is his abundant stamina, I can see the speedier contenders trying to compete with My Tent Or Yours’ turn of foot and failing, finishing tired, while the stoutly bred son of Stowaway flies up the hill, snatching a place.

2^nd – My Tent Or Yours

Recent defeats for heavily backed, short priced favourites in the Supreme should not be a reason to oppose My Tent Or Yours. He was sensationally impressive in the Betfair Hurdle at Newbury, with three progressive young handicappers making the frame. Nothing in behind can be used to hold the form down, so in a misguided attempt to crab the performance, a slow pace and a beneficially prominent ride have been given as reasons to knock My Tent Or Yours. If anything, I expect a faster pace would have seen Nicky Henderson’s charge appear even more imperious, given his tendency to pull hard. Some have even questioned what My Tent Or Yours finds off the bridle since his Newbury rout. Well from what I could see about ten lengths, but that is debatable, what isn’t debatable is the amount he found to beat subsequent Grade 1 winning hurdler Taquin Du Seuil on hurdling debut, having jumped atrociously. That is no longer an issue with the Desert Prince gelding; his hurdling was electric in the twenty one runner Betfair Hurdle. He is developing rapidly and it would have been no surprise to see My Tent Or Yours run in the Champion Hurdle. In my opinion, this speedster is nearly bombproof as favourite and he has never struck me as being a particularly short price. I will be shocked if, barring injury, incident or illness, My Tent Or Yours does not finish in the first two on Tuesday. Consequently, it might be more sensible to select him as my winner given that I can easily envisage him taking the Festival curtain raiser in a similar fashion to the Betfair Hurdle, but there is a chance another is better and that is a chance I am willing to take.

1^st – Un Atout

The only horse in the field that I can imagine matching or bettering My Tent Or Yours is Un Atout. There was barely a more impressive, jaw-dropping bumper performance during the 2011/2012 season and his hurdling debut this time around was eagerly anticipated. Yet again he mastered his rivals with little effort, dominating the race from the front. The level of opposition he faced at Navan is questionable and the two horses that could have given a level to the form have been deprived the chance of boosting it since; with the fourth, Some Article, being carried out next time, and the second, Fickle Fortune, subsequently suffering a season ending injury. Fickle Fortune herself was an extremely pacey horse in bumpers, thus giving encouragement to those who felt Un Atout would have the speed for grade 1 races over two miles. This was despite the immediate post race comments from his trainer suggesting he is a prospective staying chaser. His jumping on debut was occasionally big, possibly giving rise to those comments, but he was accurate and fast on his next start and Davy Russell has been effusive with praise for his jumping since. Un Atout destroyed his field here, at Naas, on the bridle and he became the serious Supreme contender he is now with Willie Mullins making it clear afterwards that he was content to keep this imposing son of Robin Des Champs at two miles. This was another piece of form potentially lacking strength, with the unreliable Rory O’Moore finishing nineteen lengths away in second. The third though, Art Of Logistics, has won since at Fairyhouse, defeating the aforementioned, and still highly regarded, Waaheb, in the process. The ground at Naas was very deep and Art Of Logistics may not have handled it but the form boost he delivered at least gives substance to Un Atout’s unparalleled style.

He did miss his next intended engagement in the Deloitte due to a sub standard piece of work and even his most ardent fans have to acknowledge his lack of experience; the pace of the race, the ground, the atmosphere and the crowd at Prestbury Park will all be new to him. But he has shown no sign of temperament in his three runs so far, he is a relaxed individual and I would be confident that he will take everything in his powerful stride. The faster pace and the potential emphasis on stamina created by the likes of his stablemate Champagne Fever should suit, while there is still scope for him to improve on the quicker surface at Cheltenham. The Festival will almost certainly start on soft but it will be far removed from the deep, heavy ground Un Atout has faced runs over hurdles up to now.

This will be a truly hot renewal of the Supreme but at Willie Mullins' Closutton base Un Atout is housed in an elite group of three along with Sir Des Champs and Hurricane Fly, and I fancy he can match his illustrious neighbours' success at the Cheltenham Festival in this, the most anticipated race of the year.

1. Un Atout
2. My Tent Or Yours
3. Champagne Fever