Supreme Novices Update: Sky Bet Supreme Trial Novices' Hurdle

The more I watch racing the more I think trainer form is important. There are any number of yards whose horses are different beasts when they turn up to the racecourse with the yard “in form”. Spotting when a trainer is about to hit form or acknowledging how well their horses are running at an early stage is an invaluable tool, as is sensing when a team of horses are starting to struggle. The problem is, as with almost everything in racing, it’s not an exact science. Deciding at the right time that a yard is out of form is difficult because short-term results can be misleading. It is so often the case during the Cheltenham Festival that a major trainer has a number of fancied runners on one day which all seem to under-perform, resulting in murmurings of concern about the yard’s horses. Then the next day they will have winners of the highest profile. Some take the view that the very best horses can rise above the form of the yard and it would have been possible to argue that on Sunday had David Pipe not had a one-two in the opening conditional jockeys’ handicap hurdle. In reality, too much weight was put on the performances of his runners over the first two days of Cheltenham’s Open Meeting and evidently questioning the yard’s form was a far too short-termist approach.

The Liquidator

Among David Pipe’s battalion on Sunday were three of his smartest prospects. All three were successful but none were more exciting than The Liquidator who confirmed the abundant promise he had shown on hurdling debut at Carlisle. Much of the talk in the build up to Sunday’s race was concerning the reappearance of Supreme ante-post favourite, West Wizard. Few horses have been built up more this season than the son of Westerner but connections sensibly decided to skip the race in order to give him a simpler assignment for his first start over hurdles. His presence would naturally have frightened off a few rivals, hence it was disappointing in his absence for the race to cut up so badly to only four runners. All four were at least coming into the race on the back of a win over hurdles, while Sea Lord was looking to make it seven wins in a row for the Bloomfields operation and was made favourite to do so.

A small field increases the likelihood of a tactical, falsely run race and as the runners trundled to the start nothing looked enamoured with the idea of setting the pace. Tom Scudamore, keen to avoid the fate which befell Oscar Whisky over fences on Friday, took the initiative knowing The Liquidator had made all in a similarly small field at Exeter last season and his bumper performances suggested he would not excel in a sprint. It did seem odd that Daryl Jacob decided to track the pace on Lac Fontana having posted a bloodless victory from the front over the course in October and given the doubts over two miles being enough of a test for him in decent company. He cut out very tamely from the third last, however, indicating perhaps that whatever his rider did he would not have been a factor in the result. Lac Fontana had never given the impression he was capable of having an impact in a race as competitive as the Supreme and this display ruled out that possibility. Whether a problem is found or not one imagines he will be given a break and return over a longer trip.

Ploughing a lone furrow out in front was far from ideal for The Liquidator but he has an enviable attitude and gave no hint that he was anything other than willing. Enthusiastic, accurate jumping characterised his victory at Carlisle and it was the same at Cheltenham. He has such tremendous spring in his legs it is hard to envisage him making a mistake. The only minor issue came at the third last where he jumped impressively, as ever, but landed in a chewed up piece of turf, nodding slightly as his hooves dug in. This is particularly pernickety though as one would be hard pushed to find a novice who jumps better.

For the first part of the race Scudamore only set steady fractions on The Liquidator, allowing each runner to take the first three flights in their stride as they travelled within themselves. He then quickened the pace on the approach to the fourth hurdle, an injection which his rivals, particularly Sea Lord, struggled to cope with. Sea Lord’s inability to handle, national hunt bred, The Liquidator’s speed is ironic given his flat pedigree/past and many felt two miles round Cheltenham would prove an insufficient test for The Liquidator, not vice versa. Essentially, the race was settled from that moment on as Sea Lord, Lac Fontana and Minellaforleisure found the test more and more exacting.

This was a destructive performance from David Pipe’s charge, he pulled a long way clear of a group of smart rivals with the winning distance of fifteen lengths underestimating his superiority. He already looks to have what is required to win a Supreme Novices’ Hurdle, exemplary jumping, Grade 1 bumper winning form, he is tactically versatile, handles any ground and has winning form around Cheltenham over hurdles as well as a prominent showing in the Champion Bumper like the last three Supreme winners. There was a general feeling before the season started that The Liquidator was more of a staying type with the Neptune standing out as his preferred long term target but he proved he had the speed on Sunday, having won the “Supreme Trial”, and all roads must lead to the Festival’s opener. The Liquidator is available at 14/1 for the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle at the moment and that appears generous even at this early stage, he is ready made for the test a Supreme would present and in my opinion deserves to be favourite.  

If there is a danger of getting carried away with The Liquidator’s stellar performance it is because the favourite on Sunday, Sea Lord may not have given his running. He was in trouble from such an early stage, having been caught out by The Liquidator’s acceleration, that his ability to handle the track and or wellbeing can come into question but I prefer to see it as the first time he met a high class rival, in form. The son of Cape Cross just lacks the substantial ability of the winner and the jockey reported Sea Lord needs further in this higher company, consequently the Neptune is now being considered. Improvement can be expected over a longer trip, in view of his late surge up the demanding Cheltenham hill, but I would be reluctant to suggest he could make up into a Grade 1 performer and his jumping would surely come under scrutiny again having made a blunder at the third last here. He did finish second in the end yet he only just collared the outsider of the field, Minellaforleisure on the line. Minellaforleisure easily won an uncompetitive novice event at Wincanton last time out but he was thought to be some way below this level. An enterprising ride saw him move through the race like the second best horse and this performance suggests he was underrated having only recently got over the physical problems that plagued him last season. The assumption that Sea Lord was a significantly better animal than Minellaforleisure over this trip seems inaccurate and the King’s Theatre gelding deserves to be taken seriously this campaign for all his handicap mark will suffer after this.

The Liquidator was not the only potential Supreme Novices’ candidate to deliver at Cheltenham for David Pipe as Red Sherlock took the traditionally strong bumper in style. The prospect of seeing him over hurdles is thrilling and if The Liquidator is going to come up short in the novice hurdle division it will probably be due to the likes of him; the imposing, flashy performers, replete with talent.  

Supreme Novices Update: The Liquidator

Over a period of about 15 minutes on Friday afternoon, two exceptional looking novices made their hurdling debuts. Oscar Rock (Wetherby) and Carraig Mor (Uttoxeter) took their respective fields apart, winning hard held in both cases by nineteen and twenty-five lengths respectively. Each came into their races with great expectations, Oscar Rock having lit up the bumper scene and Carraig Mor having impressed onlookers in his sole point to point as well as his trainer in that sphere, Adrian Maguire. Carraig Mor’s jumping was the more accomplished but neither set of connections could be blamed for already having at least one eye on the Cheltenham Festival. The Neptune and Albert Bartlett novices’ hurdles will inevitably come under consideration having begun their hurdling careers over two-and-a-half miles, and they are a pair every National Hunt fan can look forward to.

The Liquidator, having begun his hurdling career last week over two miles and one furlong, does have Supreme prospects despite being thought of as a stayer in some quarters. Bought out of Shark Hanlon’s yard, following a placed effort in a hot Fairyhouse bumper, The Liquidator started his career for David Pipe in the Listed National Hunt flat race at Cheltenham’s Open Meeting. On this occasion, on an afternoon where it appeared particularly difficult to make up ground, he travelled sweetly in midfield, only moving into a share of the lead as they turned for home. The effort to make up this ground in the holding conditions took its toll, as he was outstayed by the long-time leader, Anonis. He followed up this promising effort with, essentially, a trot around Exeter against three vastly inferior rivals. Little was learnt from that exercise and he returned to Cheltenham for the Champion Bumper still, somewhat, as an unknown quantity. For whatever reason The Liquidator didn’t seem comfortable for much of the contest, possibly struggling with the pace, despite its lack of ferocity, but he never completely lost his position and he stayed on encouragingly after being left behind by the first three, almost snatching third on the line. Finishing so well in a race notoriously tough on horses could have spelt the end of a successful season for David Pipe’s recruit but given his admirable consistency and progression from run to run he was handed the opportunity to finish on a high.

In Punchestown’s equivalent bumper to Cheltenham’s Champion version, won the previous season by Supreme Novices’ Hurdle winner Champagne Fever, rising star Jane Mangan was offered the ride. Ridden handily on the outside of runners, the pace was no issue this time as he travelled like the Grade 1 animal he would soon prove to be. Produced to lead entering the straight, the son of Overbury quickened clear at the furlong pole and saw the race out gamely as challengers plugged on at the one pace. It was a textbook ride and a textbook performance from this five-year-old, one that must not be underestimated as the next three all won on their hurdling debuts, with the second, Gilt Shadow, looking particularly impressive in doing so on Saturday.

Purely in form terms such success could have been predicted, but having seen him in the flesh on each English start last season it did surprise me. The Liquidator was a scrawny, lightly framed, essentially unimposing individual last season and as a result I convinced myself he could not achieve what one might have hoped, particularly over hurdles. If I was going to be against one exciting bumper performer from last season over hurdles it was going to be him yet reports were that he had filled his inconsiderable frame over the summer and developed well. From what I could see of him on television before his introduction to hurdles at Carlisle it was hard to get away from the sense that he had grown and, in relation to his rivals, become a more imposing specimen. He then put in a display that forced me to reconsider and, even at this early stage, I have to see him as a realistic contender for the Supreme, if that is the route they choose to go down.

David Pipe enjoys starting his talented novices in weak events in order to build confidence. For The Liquidator he certainly found a field that lacked any serious dangers. Consequently, it is easy to write this off as a race that The Liquidator should be winning easily and think little more of it however I am keen to be very positive. Unsurprisingly, he cruised through the race and quickened clear in effortless fashion, outclassing his floundering rivals, confirming the impression he left last season. Here it was his jumping that grabbed my attention. While he may lack the scope for a chaser he does not lack the athleticism and it is understandable if that is the ultimate aim. The Liquidator showed a natural aptitude for jumping at Carlisle, making the right shape over each hurdle, treating them with the right mix of respect and attack. His technique is such that it should stand up to the pressure of a stronger pace, in a higher quality field. Very few hurdling debutants will jump with such authority, therefore, while it might feel natural to step him up in distance the greatest advantage to be gained, from this asset, will be over the minimum trip.

I hope The Liquidator will have a campaign geared around the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle. He may lack the raw speed and quality of some but the ability to see out the trip strongly is crucial. There could be a niggling doubt about his suitability for Cheltenham given his two defeats last season came at the venue however one was on ground that played against him while the other was the toughest race of its kind hence it would be remiss of anyone to be too critical of that run and he has improved since.

If you already fancy The Liquidator for the Festival’s traditional curtain raiser the real concern is the prospect of him running instead in the Neptune over two miles and five furlongs. Soft ground round Carlisle would have been a stamina test in and of itself and The Liquidator powered clear up the run-in, with the margin of victory increasing the further he went. This run gave every indication that he would be just as effective, if not more so over further and when one looks back again at the Champion Bumper, he stormed up the Cheltenham hill in a race that traditionally suits stayers. Finally, David Pipe’s strength in the last season’s bumper division may prove significant as he could have an even more exciting prospect for the Supreme, potentially more exciting than any British trained hopeful, in the shape of Red Sherlock. He has a huge amount more to prove than The Liquidator, not least in the jumping department, but he showed an element of brilliance last season that his stablemate just lacks. With such a long way to go I am perhaps getting ahead of myself and I am arguably doing The Liquidator a disservice since even as the season progresses it will be difficult to find a more solid proposition for the top novice hurdle prizes.   

Supreme Novices Update: Clondaw Kaempfer

With the rain softened ground ruling out Overturn for his second start over fences and a lack of fitness ruling out Peddlers Cross for his seasonal reappearance in the Ascot Hurdle, Donald McCain was left without his two biggest guns for a weekend he likes to target with the cream of his crop. He did, however, unleash some of his exciting younger prospects, including Baltimoar and Super Duty, and none were more exciting than Clondaw Kaempfer on Friday in Haydock’s two mile Listed Novices’ Hurdle.

This attractive four-year-old son of Oscar began his life in the point-to-point fields where he was placed twice, finishing third to another exciting Supreme prospect in Sizing Rio on the first occasion at Bennettsbridge, and he was narrowly beaten on the second at Maralin where he apparently struggled in the testing conditions. He was then sent, by his trainer at the time Colin Bowe, to Fairyhouse for their valuable Tattersalls Ireland Sales Bumper. Held up in rear from the off, he travelled strongly thorough race and tracked Snake Eyes, a disappointing second on hurdling debut today, on the outside. Snake Eyes, ridden more prominently, got first run and it took Clondaw Kaempfer a while to get on terms but eventually he stayed on past Henderson’s inmate and comfortably held off The Liquidator, subsequently bought by David Pipe, who ran well in unsuitable conditions in the listed bumper during Cheltenham’s Open Meeting. This understandably left the impression that Clondaw Kaempfer would be suited by longer trips over hurdles, while the way he travelled and picked up smartly to circle the field and follow Snake Eyes into the straight also indicated abundant pace. This was a highly appealing combination and there was no shortage of interest at Cheltenham’s April sale, eventually being knocked down to Donald McCain for £130,000.

At the start of the season McCain suggested that Clondaw Kaempfer would be a strong stayer and consequently headed to Aintree for his hurdling debut over 2½ miles. It was very soft ground that day and after the race it was revealed that McCain had almost pulled his horse out as he believed this bay gelding might struggle in the conditions, in fact the opposite was true.

It was only a four runner event at Aintree but there did seem to be a major rival in the shape of Funny Star, for Paul Nicholls, who had won a big field hurdle race at Auteuil on his only previous start. They were taken along at an appropriately slow pace given the conditions and the two main protagonists sat together, tracking the front pair. Clondaw Kaempfer was a little fresh and keen early, but this was of little concern and he was soon travelling with ease. His jumping slick throughout, with a couple of notably exuberant leaps, and his jockey, Jason Maguire, looked full of confidence rounding the home turn, even prepared to let the field slightly get away from him. Then after the second last he gently nudged his mount and the response was immediate as he smoothly loomed up alongside the leader before stretching clear after the last in striking fashion, marking him out as a high class animal. He was barely tested in this race but it did at least prove that he handled bad ground which was important as McCain had no qualms about stepping him up in class for his next run in similarly testing conditions.

                                                                                                                                                            

Donald McCain had entered Clondaw Kaempfer in the fixed brush novices’ hurdle on Friday as well as the two mile listed event over the standard obstacles and prior to this weekend there was little talk of him being a potential Supreme horse. The ground, as it was at Haydock, persuaded connections to take in the two mile event and it paid off, with the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle now looking a distinct possibility.

Again a small field but this time, over a shorter trip, the pace was noticeably quicker and Clondaw Kaempfer quickly settled into a nice rhythm on the inside. Once more his hurdling was fluid and quick, looking the likeliest winner from some way out with perhaps the most impressive part of the race coming on entry to the final straight. He was briefly asked by Maguire to move through a gap into a share of the lead and he responded instantly, before coming quickly back, hard on the bridle. Finally asked to go and win the race at the second last, he quickened up well putting a gap between him and the second Lienosus. A slow jump out to the right at the last cost him most of the ground he had taken out of the second between the last two hurdles, and the strong staying Lienosus looked a threat as Clondaw Kaempfer drifted right. He seemed to be tiring in the soft to heavy ground, however, Donald McCain’s charge picked up smartly again, in the end winning emphatically by 3¾ lengths from a well regarded and well backed second, who was also receiving 6lbs. Lienosus had shown smart form over further at Chepstow, on his first run for Evan Williams, in the Persian War where he finished behind the hugely exciting French import Wonderful Charm. He is a prospect worth following, particularly back over further as he lacked the speed of Clondaw Kaempfer, and crucially pulled 22 lengths clear of the third, impressive Exeter scorer, Landscape who seemingly had his ideal conditions.

The significant distance back to Landscape is the first point to note when considering Clondaw Kaempfer for the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle as, prior to his impressive win at Exeter, he had finished 14½ lengths behind another contender for Cheltenham’s curtain raiser, Court Minstrel. Yet on Friday he was some 26 lengths behind Clondaw Kaempfer and while testing ground can accentuate winning distances, those conditions were supposed to favour Landscape more than the quicker ground he faced at Cheltenham. His trainer, Paul Nicholls, was also keen to point out that his jumping had improved since then. As a result, this performance from Clondaw Kaempfer must be thought of as a significant Supreme trial.

He beat, what looks, a useful field comfortably and demonstrated, once again, his ability to quicken twice in a race while at the same time proving his tenacity in battle. The Neptune, at this stage, does look the obvious race having finished full of running over 2m4f on soft ground at Aintree and the Neptune, despite being run over 2m5f, is a race for speed horses at the moment with likes of Simonsig and Peddlers Cross winning it in recent years. The presence of Peddlers Cross in its history may well sway McCain that direction, especially with Clondaw Kaempfer possessing so much speed alongside his unquestionable stamina. It is this speed, though, which could encourage Donald McCain to go down the two mile route and if the ground came up soft in March, not unthinkable anymore with the incessant rain in this country, I am confident the Supreme is the race he would chose. His current odds of 16/1 for the race are not unreasonable if one is willing to take a chance and, who knows, as Donald McCain has more time with him Clondaw Kaempfer might become a faster horse. This son of Oscar will likely be even better on good/good to soft ground and under these conditions the longer trip will appeal to connections but the Neptune may also be the tougher race with last season’s top bumper performers, Champagne Fever, Don Cossack, The New One etc. all targeting that race. There are so many factors to consider when making this decision, including his other novices, such as Corrin Wood who ran so well in the aforementioned fixed brush race over the longer trip, and Donald McCain will probably make the right one. Even if he made the wrong decision it might not matter as Clondaw Kaempfer has already indicated that he could have the potential to win either race.