The more I
watch racing the more I think trainer form is important. There are any number
of yards whose horses are different beasts when they turn up to the racecourse
with the yard “in form”. Spotting when a trainer is about to hit form or
acknowledging how well their horses are running at an early stage is an
invaluable tool, as is sensing when a team of horses are starting to struggle.
The problem is, as with almost everything in racing, it’s not an exact science.
Deciding at the right time that a yard is out of form is difficult because
short-term results can be misleading. It is so often the case during the
Cheltenham Festival that a major trainer has a number of fancied runners on one
day which all seem to under-perform, resulting in murmurings of concern about
the yard’s horses. Then the next day they will have winners of the highest
profile. Some take the view that the very best horses can rise above the form
of the yard and it would have been possible to argue that on Sunday had David
Pipe not had a one-two in the opening conditional jockeys’ handicap hurdle. In
reality, too much weight was put on the performances of his runners over the
first two days of Cheltenham’s Open Meeting and evidently questioning the
yard’s form was a far too short-termist approach.
 |
| The Liquidator |
Among David
Pipe’s battalion on Sunday were three of his smartest prospects. All three were
successful but none were more exciting than The Liquidator who confirmed the abundant promise he had shown on hurdling
debut at Carlisle. Much of the talk in the build up to Sunday’s race was
concerning the reappearance of Supreme ante-post favourite, West Wizard. Few
horses have been built up more this season than the son of Westerner but
connections sensibly decided to skip the race in order to give him a simpler
assignment for his first start over hurdles. His presence would naturally have
frightened off a few rivals, hence it was disappointing in his absence for the
race to cut up so badly to only four runners. All four were at least coming
into the race on the back of a win over hurdles, while Sea Lord was looking to
make it seven wins in a row for the Bloomfields operation and was made
favourite to do so.
A small
field increases the likelihood of a tactical, falsely run race and as the
runners trundled to the start nothing looked enamoured with the idea of setting
the pace. Tom Scudamore, keen to avoid the fate which befell Oscar Whisky over
fences on Friday, took the initiative knowing The Liquidator had made all in a
similarly small field at Exeter last season and his bumper performances
suggested he would not excel in a sprint. It did seem odd that Daryl Jacob
decided to track the pace on Lac Fontana
having posted a bloodless victory from the front over the course in October and
given the doubts over two miles being enough of a test for him in decent
company. He cut out very tamely from the third last, however, indicating
perhaps that whatever his rider did he would not have been a factor in the
result. Lac Fontana had never given the impression he was capable of having an
impact in a race as competitive as the Supreme and this display ruled out that
possibility. Whether a problem is found or not one imagines he will be given a
break and return over a longer trip.
Ploughing a
lone furrow out in front was far from ideal for The Liquidator but he has an enviable attitude and gave no hint
that he was anything other than willing. Enthusiastic, accurate jumping
characterised his victory at Carlisle and it was the same at Cheltenham. He has
such tremendous spring in his legs it is hard to envisage him making a mistake.
The only minor issue came at the third last where he jumped impressively, as
ever, but landed in a chewed up piece of turf, nodding slightly as his hooves
dug in. This is particularly pernickety though as one would be hard pushed to
find a novice who jumps better.
For the
first part of the race Scudamore only set steady fractions on The Liquidator, allowing
each runner to take the first three flights in their stride as they travelled
within themselves. He then quickened the pace on the approach to the fourth
hurdle, an injection which his rivals, particularly Sea Lord, struggled to cope
with. Sea Lord’s inability to handle, national hunt bred, The Liquidator’s
speed is ironic given his flat pedigree/past and many felt two miles round
Cheltenham would prove an insufficient test for The Liquidator, not vice versa.
Essentially, the race was settled from that moment on as Sea Lord, Lac Fontana
and Minellaforleisure found the test more and more exacting.
This was a
destructive performance from David Pipe’s charge, he pulled a long way clear of
a group of smart rivals with the winning distance of fifteen lengths
underestimating his superiority. He already looks to have what is required to
win a Supreme Novices’ Hurdle, exemplary jumping, Grade 1 bumper winning form,
he is tactically versatile, handles any ground and has winning form around
Cheltenham over hurdles as well as a prominent showing in the Champion Bumper
like the last three Supreme winners. There was a general feeling before the
season started that The Liquidator was more of a staying type with the Neptune
standing out as his preferred long term target but he proved he had the speed
on Sunday, having won the “Supreme Trial”, and all roads must lead to the
Festival’s opener. The Liquidator is available at 14/1 for the Supreme Novices’
Hurdle at the moment and that appears generous even at this early stage, he is
ready made for the test a Supreme would present and in my opinion deserves to
be favourite.
If there is
a danger of getting carried away with The Liquidator’s stellar performance it
is because the favourite on Sunday, Sea
Lord may not have given his running. He was in trouble from such an early
stage, having been caught out by The Liquidator’s acceleration, that his
ability to handle the track and or wellbeing can come into question but I
prefer to see it as the first time he met a high class rival, in form. The son
of Cape Cross just lacks the substantial ability of the winner and the jockey
reported Sea Lord needs further in this higher company, consequently the
Neptune is now being considered. Improvement can be expected over a longer trip,
in view of his late surge up the demanding Cheltenham hill, but I would be
reluctant to suggest he could make up into a Grade 1 performer and his jumping
would surely come under scrutiny again having made a blunder at the third last
here. He did finish second in the end yet he only just collared the outsider of
the field, Minellaforleisure on the
line. Minellaforleisure easily won an uncompetitive novice event at Wincanton last
time out but he was thought to be some way below this level. An enterprising
ride saw him move through the race like the second best horse and this
performance suggests he was underrated having only recently got over the
physical problems that plagued him last season. The assumption that Sea Lord
was a significantly better animal than Minellaforleisure over this trip seems
inaccurate and the King’s Theatre gelding deserves to be taken seriously this campaign
for all his handicap mark will suffer after this.
The
Liquidator was not the only potential Supreme Novices’ candidate to deliver at
Cheltenham for David Pipe as Red
Sherlock took the traditionally strong bumper in style. The prospect of seeing
him over hurdles is thrilling and if The Liquidator is going to come up short
in the novice hurdle division it will probably be due to the likes of him; the imposing,
flashy performers, replete with talent.
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