Stats and trends are an indication of what has happened, not
necessarily what will happen. I try not to let them dominate my thinking when
it comes to Cheltenham but naturally, some will seep into the consciousness and
have an unintended, though not unhelpful, influence on one’s opinions. Writing
off a horse’s chances because it has run in a race which has failed to produce
the winner of a certain Festival contest, for example, is too arbitrary yet I
generally like a Supreme Novices’ Hurdle candidate to fit a certain profile. Knowing
what it takes to win the race, the test it can provide and therefore what sort
of horse is likely to flourish under those conditions is invaluable to success.
Ideally a Supreme candidate would have looked impressive in
bumpers and or shown strong form in that sphere. Horses to have had a hurdling background
in France also make significant appeal. That may appear vague and does not
narrow down the field particularly but the key point is I would almost
invariably be negative towards those coming off the flat. Not every Supreme is
the same however, not every field is as strong, and while flat recruits usually
struggle to win me over some do and in Saturday’s Dovecote Hurdle, Irving did.
It was a far from stellar line-up and First Mohican, seen as
the leading danger to Irving largely based on his flat form, was weak in the
market beforehand. During the race he made mistakes at his obstacles and was
beaten relatively early, looking awkward and reluctant with his ungainly head
carriage once again in evidence, as it was on hurdling debut at Doncaster. The
rest of the field were unlikely to pose a serious threat to Paul Nicholls’
charge based on what had gone before this season, but Irving still despatched
his rivals with a contemptuous ease that has quite rightly set him atop the
betting for the Festival’s opening contest.
Ridden more prominently than at Ascot in December, Nick Schofield (aboard Irving for the fourth time) was
content to track the leader, Amore Alto and the free-going Germany Calling.
With a smooth passage he travelled sweetly throughout, seemingly giving his
rider a simple job as he jumped soundly in the main and moved from in
contention to in control without the need for coercion. As this six-year-old
has gained his experience it is noticeable how quickly he gets away from his
hurdles (this is especially evident on Channel 4’s coverage, with the fourth last flight providing the best example, Racing
UK only has a head-on view here). This element of his armoury could set him
apart as even the mistakes he has made have yet to halt his momentum; he is
nimble and clever while he can pull out prodigious jump if he meets a hurdle
wrong as he did over the last at Kempton. That was the only semblance of a scare,
he did kick the top out of the second last having tanked into it but Schofield
was reluctant to let him fly it in case he hit the front too soon. Whereas
there would be concerns about some in the Supreme jumping at high speed Irving
isn’t one of them.
A strong pace on faster ground at Cheltenham could really
suit Irving, a picture of him travelling in the slipstream of the leader on the
run to the last (perhaps Vautour) is easy to imagine, and his turn of foot combined
with the acceleration away from the final flight may then prove the difference.
As hinted at above the form of Saturday’s Dovecote hurdle
can be questioned given the lack of strength in depth but this comprehensive
thrashing of Amore Alato on ground that, according to connections, inconvenienced
Irving should not be underestimated. Nick Williams’ gelding is by no means a
Supreme contender, he is not, nor is he ever likely to be a multiple Grade 1
winner à la The Tullow Tank who was so confidently seen off by Vautour. He is a
solid, consistent novice hurdler with a high level of ability. Both his wins
this season, at Wincanton and particularly Kempton, have worked out well. The
ultra-impressive Doncaster winner, Vaniteux was among the vanquished on Boxing
Day. His run prior to Saturday was in a heavy ground handicap at Cheltenham
where he was far from disgraced, finishing third behind the obscenely well
handicapped Lac Fontana and Totalize who is very useful in the conditions. Crucially,
he was taken on for the lead at Cheltenham, unlike at Wincanton or Kempton,
including on Saturday where the son of Winged Love was allowed to dictate the
pace with no competition up front, he was even handed five lengths at the
start. Coupled with a well-executed ride, Amore Alato was a difficult rival to
master, as the rest of the seven strong field showed, yet Irving swept by him unflustered.
It is also worth mentioning the boost given to his Kennell Gate Novices’ Hurdle form at Ascot by the third
that day, Splash Of Ginge in the Betfair Hurdle. Success there came off a lowly
mark and he was ridden (and ridden smartly) by a seven pound claimer but even
then it is hard to believe he ran to the same level behind Irving. He jumped
poorly and out to his left during the first half of the Ascot Grade 2 therefore
this franking is not quite as spectacular as it may appear, nevertheless it
provides some much needed support to a shaky looking piece of form following
the comprehensive blowout of the likely second (before coming to grief) in the rearranged
Tolworth. Prince Siegfried’s fall may have left its mark, however, and as a
consequence that run is easy to ignore, I certainly wouldn’t use him as a stick
to beat Irving with.
Many will have been more excited
by Irving previously than I was and consequently availed themselves of some
attractive antepost prices. The prospect of taking the 3/1 currently available
is therefore soured somewhat but I am now as excited as anybody, outside of the
connections, by this rapid bay gelding and would rather be with him than
Vautour at the same price.
---------------------------------------------------
The notion that Un
Ace could be horse for the Cheltenham Festival was put forward right at the
start of the season by his trainer Kim Bailey. He was for sale at the time and
that is essentially how he was advertised. In an attempt to avoid ground soft
or worse Un Ace was not sighted until last week at Doncaster, thus making the
prospect of a visit to Prestbury Park rather remote. Fortunately for those who
kept the faith with this son of Voix Du Nord their patience was rewarded with
an emphatic display at the Town Moor course. Without the peck on landing at the
third last, which briefly appeared to end his chances, he may not even have
come off the bridle in his defeat of Tom George’s well-regarded prospect,
Stellar Notion.
According to connections he had earned his place at National
Hunt racing’s top table and who can blame them. The Supreme has been muted as
the most likely option and the experience gained there should bring him on
considerably. To compete in such a race on just your second start is an
extremely tall order and quotes of around 66/1 say it all. He is not without
considerable potential though and, hopefully, with the travails of the Festival
safely under his belt he may be one to consider seriously during the concluding
weeks of the season.
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