Supreme Novices Update: Moscow Flyer Novice Hurdle review

We find ourselves with only five weeks until the big day. Before you know it the Festival will have been and gone, leaving us with thoughts of the upcoming flat season. While Aintree will be an entertaining interlude, the prospect of the Cheltenham Festival ending is grim, to say the least. In reality that is still some way off, for all that it won’t feel that way once it arrives, and there are still trial races to digest and consider. One such trial was the Moscow Flyer Novice Hurdle at Punchestown on Sunday won last year by Trifolium, an unlucky third in the Supreme, and previously by Mikael D’Haguenet for Willie Mullins. Mullins won the race once again this season but it would be bold to predict a similarly authoritative display at Cheltenham from this year’s winner, Mozoltov.

Mozoltov was among the best Irish bumper horses last season despite being soundly beaten three times. His defeat at the hands of Clonbanan Lad may give an indication to what level he is capable of reaching in novice hurdles but that would be unfair. Mozoltov has always been highly regarded but he did not quite have the form to back up his reputation until he ran his best race during the Punchestown Festival, where he finished close to Melodic Rendezvous but a significant distance behind Champagne Fever. That looks a level below what is required for a Supreme, despite how strongly or otherwise Melodic Rendezvous is fancied. This weekend’s run also has the appearance of being a level or two below what will be required. On his first outing this season Mozoltov demolished an atrocious field divulging little about himself in the process, other than he could jump. Again on Sunday his hurdling was fluent and brisk and he consistently came away from the hurdles faster than his better fancied rival Don Cossack, even when Davy Russell found the right stride. Willie Mullins said afterwards that the Supreme would be his next race, perhaps surprising given that he had been slightly under the radar in terms of novice hurdlers. There has not been the same hype and talk about him that has befallen some of his stablemates and maybe it was naive not to enter him into one’s calculations for the Festival opener. Yet Mullins did say at the start of the season that Mozoltov was a chaser in the making and even after this weekend I would struggle to make a case for him winning at Cheltenham based on what he’s done, only on what he might do.

The beaten favourite on Sunday was Don Cossack. He is surely destined to be better over further and his jumping can only hold him back over smaller obstacles, particularly at this trip where speed is paramount and slick jumping is necessitated. However, he already proved that he was inferior to the current standard bearer over two-and-a-half miles, Pont Alexandre, last time at Navan and it is difficult to envisage him recreating that awesome impression he left in bumpers, while hurdling over the minimum trip. In bumpers Don Cossack took people’s imagination, he left an indelible, powerful mark leading many to assume his ascent to the top over obstacles would be swift. On debut this season, there was little to dissuade this notion other than a certain sloppiness in his hurdling technique, but the ground was lamentable and it could be quickly brushed aside by connections and onlookers. Unfortunately, next time out against the imperious Neptune bound Pont Alexandre the problem appeared more chronic. There was certainly improvement in that area on Sunday but not enough to suggest that he will reach the heights over hurdles that once seemed inevitable.

The faith shown in him by his talented trainer is tough, possibly foolish, to ignore. This season might appear disappointing when one considers what was expected but Gordon Elliott always maintained he was a future chaser from the top drawer and this is hard to refute especially when taking his physique and running style into account. He is a powerful galloper who gives too much air to his hurdles in the manner of a chaser, with fences between him and his goal there may be a different animal waiting to be unleashed. Don Cossack is not the novice hurdler that many had hoped for but the seemingly limitless potential that he possessed in bumpers could be fulfilled over fences once he begins the job he was bred for. When put into the perspective that Don Cossack is effectively a three mile chaser, his hurdling career to date has been far from underwhelming.

Ned Buntline is another well regarded novice but of the well-fancied triumvirate at Punchestown he was the most disappointing. McCoy was at pains to hold him up right off the pace, his keen going tendencies were plain to see, but from last he moved stylishly into third following a big leap two out before fading relatively quickly as the front two quickened clear. Ned Buntline has not looked devoid of pace in his career, hence it could be that he struggled with the ground, failing to pick up as well as his rider might have expected. There will be improvement to come on a sounder surface but this display arguably rules out enough improvement to get competitive in what looks a competitive Supreme and it is possible to say that he, to some extent, holds the form down for the first and second.  A convincing win over Urano (subsequently beaten by the lesser known Legal Exit) on his last run prior to this weekend, Ned Buntline was back on track having shocked connections previously when beaten by Bright New Dawn at Fairyhouse. But, while an extremely useful and still somewhat unexposed novice hurdler, Bright New Dawn was comfortably dispatched by Jezki, current favourite for the Supreme, on his next start. Jessica Harrington’s five-year-old was unextended and Ned Buntline’s conqueror was all of eight lengths behind. Once his chance was gone Ned Buntline was caringly handled by McCoy here and he was only beaten six-and-a-half-lengths. If Mozoltov or even Don Cossack had pretensions on the Supreme crown they needed to pull further clear. The way Jezki has finished off his races over hurdles indicates that we are someway off seeing his limit whereas Mozoltov was all out to see off Don Cossack.

Willie Mullins’ charge may prove to be better than this, with Ruby Walsh suggesting afterwards that he wasn’t entirely enjoying the ground but he has only run so far on soft or heavy ground and his best performance, up until this weekend, had been on essentially unraceable ground at the Punchestown Festival. I wouldn’t be desperate to suggest that he will improve for the quicker ground normally prevalent at Cheltenham. Mozoltov may improve for the faster pace and bigger field in the Supreme, he was ridden quite aggressively at Punchestown and could be more impressive were he to be held up off a stronger gallop, but it is all about how much and while his price may appear tempting on the face of it now, once we have seen next weekend’s events it may well look on the mean side.

Supreme Novices Update: Melodic Rendezvous, Pont Alexandre and Don Cossack

Last week felt somewhat light on potential Supreme Novice hurdlers, with, probably, the most informative race in that sphere coming at Cheltenham on Friday. Village Vic was made favourite primarily on the back of his useful looking second behind The New One at Cheltenham’s Showcase meeting in October and on the assumption that a drop back in trip in bad ground would see improvement from him. Unfortunately for connections, just like when behind Coneygree at Cheltenham’s Open meeting in November, Village Vic was a no show leaving those behind him in the market to fight it out.

On bumper form alone Melodic Rendezvous deserved to be favourite, following a saunter to victory round Chepstow he finished a good, but distant, second to Champagne Fever in Punchestown’s Champion Bumper, crucially, on heavy ground. It was also heavy ground at Cheltenham and there were doubts about most of his opponents in such testing conditions, yet it was still significantly less testing than Melodic Rendezvous had faced at Punchestown. It was strange then that his trainer, Jeremy Scott, made public his concerns over the ground and, although it could be put down to most trainers’ natural cautiousness, that must have contributed to him starting as big as 4/1, that, along with his previous start over hurdles at Exeter. There, he was seemingly beaten by a highly useful prospect in Mr Mole, but he was well beaten next time leaving some doubt over the form, despite the third winning on his next start. At Exeter it was over the same trip as at Cheltenham (2m1f) and he appeared to lack the pace of the winner there, suggesting a step up in trip may benefit him. After his win on Friday connections were of a similar mind, and while he did show pace at the weekend the gruelling conditions will have aided him as it brought out his stamina which, once the ground dries up, will more likely than not be used over trips in excess of two miles, with the expected Festival target at this stage being the Neptune. Were it to be soft in March Jeremy Scott and connections may change their minds but, while it is presumptive to judge the race at this stage, Friday’s contest does not look strong enough to suggest that Melodic Rendezvous deserves to be strongly considered as a major player for the Cheltenham Festival curtain raiser.

It may be harsh to take dim view of the race at this stage but the pace was muddling, with most of the field in relatively close proximity crossing the line. Melodic Rendezvous was quite impressive in the way he moved around and upsides those who had briefly denied him a clear run on approach to the last thus he certainly isn’t without considerable speed, but having been beaten for pace at Exeter it is hard to believe that the Cheltenham race was especially strong. Nick Schofield rode Melodic Rendezvous well on Friday, knowing he had a horse with enough class and experience the jockey brought his horse into the desired position when it necessitated, unlike the eye-catcher of the race, who chased him home in second, ROYAL BOY.

Nicky Henderson’s five-year-old was an easy winner of his point-to-point and joined the star trainer some time ago but a setback forced him out for the whole of last season. Friday was his hurdling debut after a significant layoff, and while he has everything in the looks department it was difficult to know what to expect from this son of Lavirco. After a couple of stuttering leaps he really took to hurdling, attacking the flights with precision, he was quick through the air and he demonstrated just what scope he has, pointing to his real future over the larger obstacles. He travelled strongly through the race but as Barry Geraghty took Royal Boy wide round the home turn, in order to find his favoured stands rail, he was slightly outpaced with a wall of horses in front of him and the Nigel Twiston-Davies runner, Imperial Leader, slowing down on the rail blocking his path through. Once the gap appeared after the last Geraghty went after Royal Boy and he picked up quickly, storming home but never looking like reaching the winner who was already clear, Melodic Rendezvous’ extra experience told.

Royal Boy is an exciting prospect on that evidence and for a winning pointer, much like River Maigue at Cheltenham’s November meeting, the slow pace and sprint up the hill would not have played to his strengths. It is possible that he will be seen to better effect over further but I felt he showed that he had enough toe through the race to suggest that a truly run two miles could suit him, once he gains more experience it could be dangerous to write him off in stronger races over that trip. Despite the winner being well thought of, for whom a fruitful hurdling campaign was expected, the horse to take from the race must be Nicky Henderson’s charge.

Back in third on Friday was Eduard, who having given six pounds to the front two ran a solid race however I am not convinced he ran to his best and there is more to come, possibly up in trip and on better ground. The other main protagonist, who was expected to run well, was Alan King’s flashy chestnut, Valdez, but sadly he was disappointing like Village Vic. Valdez seemed to travel well for a long way but was clearly running too free on that ground and he almost certainly failed to handle the testing conditions. While he may not have been up to this class in any case, Valdez has valuable races in him and Alan King should get back on track without too much difficulty.  

NAVAN

This blog has become almost exclusively about those horses and races that could have an impact on the Supreme Novices Hurdle but I feel it would be remiss of me not to mention the Navan Novice Hurdle (G1) on Sunday, a race likely to have far more impact on novice hurdles over three miles than two.

The race beforehand was all about Gordon Elliott’s star horse, Don Cossack. Very exciting in bumpers, this giant son of Sholokhov won nicely on hurdling debut, with the odd jumping blemish, and was expected to prove unbeatable over the longer trip with that experience behind him. However, he was comprehensively beaten by Pont Alexandre, an expensive French recruit for Rich Ricci and Willie Mullins, even before he, literally, fell in a hole after the last.

With Ruby Walsh, evidently full of confidence, on board Pont Alexandre set off in front and was never headed. He was brisk over his hurdles nearly throughout, with only a tendency to jump slightly right worth noting, though that is only a very minor concern. This was an impressive performance from a four-year-old in a Grade 1 on only his second hurdling start and first in Ireland. The most striking part of this display was the manner in which he drew away from the hyped-up Gigginstown gelding between two out and the last. Victory was sealed when he cleared the final flight and as Mullins said afterwards ‘he could still be anything.’ There is a chance he needs very soft ground, with him apparently only impressing at home once the ground became heavy but I wouldn’t get too caught up in that and while he should be fully effective in a race like the Neptune, at this moment in time, that looks like the novice event of the Festival. Pont Alexandre ran like a real stayer on Sunday and, despite Coneygree winning with something to spare again at Cheltenham on Saturday, the Albert Bartlett might be his for the taking. 

Don Cossack, known as “The Don” at home, disappointed. He is a big unit who has his own jumping technique, sadly for his supporters that technique is less than desirable and it wouldn’t be harsh to describe his as clumsy. It is too early to write him off, the esteem in which he’s held by his trainer is enough to justify giving him a few more chances, as was the imperious nature of his last three bumper runs. He still has untapped potential over hurdles but unless his jumping improves dramatically, Cheltenham aspirations will have to be put on hold for at least this season. Connections of Don Cossack have been keen to emphasise that they want to tread carefully with him as chasing will be his forte. That will be something to look forward to, but as the jumps season revolves around Cheltenham he could have a major problem when it comes to March, either over hurdles or fences, and that is a need for soft ground. I would be surprised if he acts on anything quicker, and even more surprised if his connections risked him on it.