Showing posts with label The New One. Show all posts
Showing posts with label The New One. Show all posts

Tuesday, December 18, 2012

Supreme Novices Update: Melodic Rendezvous, Pont Alexandre and Don Cossack


Last week felt somewhat light on potential Supreme Novice hurdlers, with, probably, the most informative race in that sphere coming at Cheltenham on Friday. Village Vic was made favourite primarily on the back of his useful looking second behind The New One at Cheltenham’s Showcase meeting in October and on the assumption that a drop back in trip in bad ground would see improvement from him. Unfortunately for connections, just like when behind Coneygree at Cheltenham’s Open meeting in November, Village Vic was a no show leaving those behind him in the market to fight it out.

On bumper form alone Melodic Rendezvous deserved to be favourite, following a saunter to victory round Chepstow he finished a good, but distant, second to Champagne Fever in Punchestown’s Champion Bumper, crucially, on heavy ground. It was also heavy ground at Cheltenham and there were doubts about most of his opponents in such testing conditions, yet it was still significantly less testing than Melodic Rendezvous had faced at Punchestown. It was strange then that his trainer, Jeremy Scott, made public his concerns over the ground and, although it could be put down to most trainers’ natural cautiousness, that must have contributed to him starting as big as 4/1, that, along with his previous start over hurdles at Exeter. There, he was seemingly beaten by a highly useful prospect in Mr Mole, but he was well beaten next time leaving some doubt over the form, despite the third winning on his next start. At Exeter it was over the same trip as at Cheltenham (2m1f) and he appeared to lack the pace of the winner there, suggesting a step up in trip may benefit him. After his win on Friday connections were of a similar mind, and while he did show pace at the weekend the gruelling conditions will have aided him as it brought out his stamina which, once the ground dries up, will more likely than not be used over trips in excess of two miles, with the expected Festival target at this stage being the Neptune. Were it to be soft in March Jeremy Scott and connections may change their minds but, while it is presumptive to judge the race at this stage, Friday’s contest does not look strong enough to suggest that Melodic Rendezvous deserves to be strongly considered as a major player for the Cheltenham Festival curtain raiser.

It may be harsh to take dim view of the race at this stage but the pace was muddling, with most of the field in relatively close proximity crossing the line. Melodic Rendezvous was quite impressive in the way he moved around and upsides those who had briefly denied him a clear run on approach to the last thus he certainly isn’t without considerable speed, but having been beaten for pace at Exeter it is hard to believe that the Cheltenham race was especially strong. Nick Schofield rode Melodic Rendezvous well on Friday, knowing he had a horse with enough class and experience the jockey brought his horse into the desired position when it necessitated, unlike the eye-catcher of the race, who chased him home in second, ROYAL BOY.

Nicky Henderson’s five-year-old was an easy winner of his point-to-point and joined the star trainer some time ago but a setback forced him out for the whole of last season. Friday was his hurdling debut after a significant layoff, and while he has everything in the looks department it was difficult to know what to expect from this son of Lavirco. After a couple of stuttering leaps he really took to hurdling, attacking the flights with precision, he was quick through the air and he demonstrated just what scope he has, pointing to his real future over the larger obstacles. He travelled strongly through the race but as Barry Geraghty took Royal Boy wide round the home turn, in order to find his favoured stands rail, he was slightly outpaced with a wall of horses in front of him and the Nigel Twiston-Davies runner, Imperial Leader, slowing down on the rail blocking his path through. Once the gap appeared after the last Geraghty went after Royal Boy and he picked up quickly, storming home but never looking like reaching the winner who was already clear, Melodic Rendezvous’ extra experience told.

Royal Boy is an exciting prospect on that evidence and for a winning pointer, much like River Maigue at Cheltenham’s November meeting, the slow pace and sprint up the hill would not have played to his strengths. It is possible that he will be seen to better effect over further but I felt he showed that he had enough toe through the race to suggest that a truly run two miles could suit him, once he gains more experience it could be dangerous to write him off in stronger races over that trip. Despite the winner being well thought of, for whom a fruitful hurdling campaign was expected, the horse to take from the race must be Nicky Henderson’s charge.

Back in third on Friday was Eduard, who having given six pounds to the front two ran a solid race however I am not convinced he ran to his best and there is more to come, possibly up in trip and on better ground. The other main protagonist, who was expected to run well, was Alan King’s flashy chestnut, Valdez, but sadly he was disappointing like Village Vic. Valdez seemed to travel well for a long way but was clearly running too free on that ground and he almost certainly failed to handle the testing conditions. While he may not have been up to this class in any case, Valdez has valuable races in him and Alan King should get back on track without too much difficulty.  

NAVAN
This blog has become almost exclusively about those horses and races that could have an impact on the Supreme Novices Hurdle but I feel it would be remiss of me not to mention the Navan Novice Hurdle (G1) on Sunday, a race likely to have far more impact on novice hurdles over three miles than two.

The race beforehand was all about Gordon Elliott’s star horse, Don Cossack. Very exciting in bumpers, this giant son of Sholokhov won nicely on hurdling debut, with the odd jumping blemish, and was expected to prove unbeatable over the longer trip with that experience behind him. However, he was comprehensively beaten by Pont Alexandre, an expensive French recruit for Rich Ricci and Willie Mullins, even before he, literally, fell in a hole after the last.

With Ruby Walsh, evidently full of confidence, on board Pont Alexandre set off in front and was never headed. He was brisk over his hurdles nearly throughout, with only a tendency to jump slightly right worth noting, though that is only a very minor concern. This was an impressive performance from a four-year-old in a Grade 1 on only his second hurdling start and first in Ireland. The most striking part of this display was the manner in which he drew away from the hyped-up Gigginstown gelding between two out and the last. Victory was sealed when he cleared the final flight and as Mullins said afterwards ‘he could still be anything.’ There is a chance he needs very soft ground, with him apparently only impressing at home once the ground became heavy but I wouldn’t get too caught up in that and while he should be fully effective in a race like the Neptune, at this moment in time, that looks like the novice event of the Festival. Pont Alexandre ran like a real stayer on Sunday and, despite Coneygree winning with something to spare again at Cheltenham on Saturday, the Albert Bartlett might be his for the taking. 

Don Cossack, known as “The Don” at home, disappointed. He is a big unit who has his own jumping technique, sadly for his supporters that technique is less than desirable and it wouldn’t be harsh to describe his as clumsy. It is too early to write him off, the esteem in which he’s held by his trainer is enough to justify giving him a few more chances, as was the imperious nature of his last three bumper runs. He still has untapped potential over hurdles but unless his jumping improves dramatically, Cheltenham aspirations will have to be put on hold for at least this season. Connections of Don Cossack have been keen to emphasise that they want to tread carefully with him as chasing will be his forte. That will be something to look forward to, but as the jumps season revolves around Cheltenham he could have a major problem when it comes to March, either over hurdles or fences, and that is a need for soft ground. I would be surprised if he acts on anything quicker, and even more surprised if his connections risked him on it. 



Monday, November 5, 2012

Supreme Novices Update: My Tent Or Yours


Normal service was resumed this weekend, as Paul Nicholls and Nicky Henderson dominated the jumping scene on both sides of the Irish Sea. The most visually impressive performance of the weekend was Silviniaco Conti’s rout in the Charlie Hall at Wetherby. He may have beaten overrated and unfit rivals but the style of this performance along with his rock solid novices’ chase form marks him out as a key player in all the major staying chases this season for Paul Nicholls. At Ascot, we saw a performance significantly less impressive but from a horse with arguably just as much potential in his division, the Nicky Henderson trained, My Tent Or Yours.

If pressed for my 2013 Supreme Novices’ Hurdle winner, at the start of this jumps season, I would probably have said My Tent Or Yours. Now, having witnessed his first run over hurdles, I am reluctant to switch allegiances just yet.

As a bumper horse he was always highly regarded, he even started odds-on for his first two starts and second favourite for the Aintree Champion Bumper. In the run-up to Aintree Nicky Henderson made it clear that he felt this son of Desert Prince was his best in that sphere.

For his first start under rules, Henderson sent My Tent Or Yours to Ludlow, a venue where he often likes to test his talented youngsters. Over 1m6f he settled well, surprisingly well considering how keen he has been in all his subsequent starts. This was quite a well run bumper and that surely aided his cause, as did the trip as it put the emphasis far more on speed. As a result, he ran out a supremely comfortable nine length winner displaying his undoubted class (with, the since unbeaten in four, Vegas Cash back in fourth). After a performance worthy of a step up in class, My Tent Or Yours was set the considerably stiffer task of the DBS Sales Bumper at Newbury. On this occasion Nicky Henderson’s charge pulled hard almost throughout and his rider, Barry Geraghty, said he didn’t drop the bit until we were turning in for home. It was, therefore, extremely creditable to finish second to Up To Something (a winner on his hurdling debut this season), beaten barely more than a length. Already a dual bumper winner, Up To Something had the run of the race up front and his trainer Charlie Longsdon sees him as novice hurdler for races over 2m4f+, consequently it was no disgrace for My Tent Or Yours to just be outstayed over an extended two miles. Inexperience also looked to play a part in this defeat as it was only his second ever race and his first ‘battle’.

Connections of My Tent Or Yours, understandably, felt he was unlucky at Newbury and headed to Aintree full of confidence. His abundance of speed, shown at Ludlow and Newbury, suggested Aintree would suit. Again, he pulled hard through early stages, although not to the same extent as at Newbury, but this time Geraghty managed to settle him. Due to his strikingly high cruising speed My Tent Or Yours inevitably took himself to the front earlier than ideal and although the rest of the field were under pressure and he was seemingly tanking along, he just couldn’t find enough off the bridle to repel the late charge of The New One. Ostensibly a stayer, The New One was always a possible danger if stamina was brought into play. The Aintree race was also over 2m1f and at the moment it looks as if two miles is My Tent Or Yours’ limit. As such, he did well to finish where he did, ahead of many useful performers and the form of the race has worked out exceptionally well. The New One has already won impressively twice over hurdles, while My Tent Or Yours in second, Court Minstrel (fourth), Ifyousayso (fifth) and Kaysersberg (14th) have all won on their hurdling debuts this season. This, coupled with the way he moved through race, left the impression that My Tent Or Yours would be an exciting prospect for novice hurdles.

J P McManus evidently agreed and he purchased Barry Geraghty’s usual mount thereby leaving the responsibility of guiding this promising novice through his first season over hurdles to A P McCoy. McCoy had in fact ridden My Tent Or Yours on his racecourse debut so he wasn’t unfamiliar with the strong travelling bay gelding.

At Ascot, My Tent Or Yours was sent off a heavily fancied 4/7 favourite. He had plainly been showing the right signs at home and his bumper form entitled him to be where he was in the market. There were however murmurings of support for the opposition he faced, primarily the French import Taquin Du Seuil, a winner at Uttoxeter on his hurdling debut (for McCoy), and the listed class flat performer Chiberta King.

It was clear from the outset that McCoy was in for a battle with My Tent Or Yours as his free going, hard pulling tendencies resurfaced and appeared worse than ever. He was anchored in last place but the race was run at an extremely slow pace which was never likely to suit and after jumping the first well he was by no means foot perfect over his obstacles, making a hash of the fourth, knocking the hurdle flat, and the last, where he was particularly slow. The pace remained steady until My Tent Or Yours, in effect, pulled his way into second just alongside Taquin Du Seuil rounding the final bend. Together they quickly managed to put distance between them and the field. While there were two horses left in with a chance there seemed little doubt that McCoy would come out on top as he approached the last yet to move on My Tent Or Yours while Geraghty, coincidentally replacing McCoy on Taquin Du Seuil, was all out in an attempt to remain alongside. With the mistake at the last and his history of failing to find as much as expected off the bridle, there was a moment’s worry and My Tent Or Yours had to be pushed out until he found the extra gear which he seems to posses. One crack of the whip was all but unnecessary and while he was in receipt of 5lbs from the runner-up and the winning distance was only a length-and-three-quarters, there was no hiding his superiority.

The way he has shaped on each of his four starts, particularly his most recent, suggests he will be at his best when faced with a strong pace in a big field. One cannot fail to be impressed by the way My Tent Or Yours travels so menacingly through a race, very few horses can match his ability to catch the eye, and for a hurdler he looks to be all about speed. Once he gets the strong pace he needs over two miles, he will be a major force to be reckoned with and I will not entertain any doubts over his class.
                                                                                                                                    
While his speed will get him so far, he will need to show that he finds for pressure once he comes off the bridle. I am sure that in previews to his future races people will be desperate to suggest laying him short in running as he has travelled strongly without delivering the anticipated finishing kick on three occasions. Excuses can be found however, and I believe he will have to come across something really smart to be beaten in the near future. At Newbury, the clearest case of him not finding off the bridle, My Tent Or Yours came up against a horse who had controlled the race from the front while Nicky Henderson’s charge showed signs of inexperience. At Aintree, he came across a top class horse in The New One who stays well and it was over a trip that just stretched his stamina to. Whilst, this weekend he came up against a small field with no pace and had to fight out the finish with, a not to be underestimated opponent in Taquin Du Seuil. Having previously shown a decent level of form on the flat in France, Taquin Du Seuil could not have been more impressive at Uttoxeter on his hurdling debut, beating the odds on favourite by fifteen lengths eased down. He has jumped well on both runs over hurdles and is surely one to look out for in future, while it is possible that he lacks the class to challenge in a Supreme Novices’.

It is also possible that he just came across a seriously talented horse in My Tent Or Yours, potentially the best two-mile novice hurdler in the country. Were this to be the case, the 20/1 available now for the Supreme would look very generous but it is so early that I would have to see the whole package to get involved now. He has the speed, the class and there are no doubts over him stepping up in trip. But, the fact remains My Tent Or Yours has had only one run over hurdles and he jumped poorly. If on his next start he jumps well and shows that he has learned from this experience, then the prospect of a double figure price, even months in advance, may become too tempting to resist.