Monday, December 10, 2012

Supreme Novices Update: Un Atout

Arguably, the horse to take from this weekend with the Supreme in mind didn’t even run. The form of My Tent Or Yours’ commanding win at Ascot was comprehensively boosted by Taquin Du Seuil on Friday when he took the Grade 2 novices’ hurdle at Sandown with consummate ease. The price of My Tent Or Yours for the Supreme collapsed after the event and considering how poorly he jumped against Taquin Du Seuil, one could be forgiven for holding sky high expectations for Nicky Henderson’s charge once he gets his act together. Taquin Du Seuil won on Friday over two-and-a-half miles, he appreciated the soft ground and must be thought of more as a Neptune Investment Management Novices' Hurdle horse. His trainer, Jonjo O’Neil, was not ruling the Supreme out, however, and he may have a difficult decision to make come March.

Another trainer likely to have some tough decisions to make in March is Willie Mullins. He has a host of novice hurdlers capable of running over trips between two and three miles and this weekend we saw another one join the ranks at Navan in the shape of Un Atout.

Un Atout arrived at Willie Mullins’ yard with a tall reputation and he was sent off at 2/7 on his racecourse debut in a bumper at Naas. With Patrick Mullins in the saddle he settled comfortably in front with just the outsider of seven, Foxland, for company. Unsurprisingly, Foxland dropped away relatively early and it was then left to main market rival, Directors Forum, to challenge, but while Mullins sat motionless, content with his mount cruising along, the rider on Directors Forum was hard at work on the final bend and eventually dropped away too, leaving Emily O to give chase. She may have got within four lengths but then at the two furlong pole Mullins nudged him forward and Un Atout stretched clear in a dominant, destructive manner, finishing 24 lengths ahead of the runner-up. This performance in early January was, to my eyes, the most impressive bumper display of last season. Willie Mullins had hoped to run him in one more bumper but he suffered muscle problems and was sensibly put away with a campaign over obstacles in mind.

For anyone who had seen his bumper, Un Atout’s hurdling debut at Navan on Saturday was highly anticipated. Over two miles, like his bumper, he was again happy to settle in front. This time, with Davy Russell on board to dictate the pace, nothing in the race was willing to challenge him for the lead, and he managed to grab a four length advantage. The pace was steady and a number in behind fought for their heads, while Un Atout was left alone able to have a clear sight of his hurdles. He jumped the first quickly but then skied the second and at the fifth he just clipped the top yet he was still sharp over it. He cleared the fourth last in style, making the ideal shape while once again being swift through the air. Russell let the field close up on the approach to the straight with the horse in second moving onto his tail. Then at the third last Un Atout got in too close and as Davy Russell shook him up to just get away from the flight after the sticky jump, Un Atout accelerated, quickly re-extending the lead. Russell sat straight back up and barely moved again as he was able to maintain the four length advantage right to the line with Fickle Fortune finishing well for second.

The most striking thing about this run was the ease with which Un Atout did it. There appeared to be so little effort involved for the horse, seemingly cantering from start to finish. While he does have room for improvement in his jumping Davy Russell’s mount was actually quite nimble over his hurdles, picking his legs up quickly when in close. He may not have put in the exuberant leaps stablemate Champagne Fever is capable of but he didn’t cede ground to his pursuers and was in fact deceptively fast from one side of the hurdle to another. I am sure as he gains experience his jumping will become an asset, or as they say in French; ‘un atout’.

Often when a heavily odds-on shot readily wins a maiden hurdle there is little of note in behind, only once upped in class can we really see how good he or she is. At Navan, Un Atout did what was expected of him, cruising to victory from an inferior field with a rise in class, no doubt, imminent. On this occasion, though, there were at least two very useful bumper performers with potential to be high class novice hurdlers in against him and they were dismissed with contempt. Noel Meade's Fickle Fortune, in receipt of 7lbs from Un Atout, had looked so exciting when winning her bumper and has been unlucky not to win since. Her problem has always been her inability to settle, but she is a pacey individual who will make her mark over hurdles and she finished a very decent second here. Some Article, purchased by J.P. McManus after convincingly winning the Goffs Land Rover Bumper at the Punchestown Festival, is also expected to make a very useful novice hurdler. While he was keen through the race, Some Article was essentially outclassed by Willie Mullins’ charge, unable to pick up as the leader sauntered away on the bridle. Un Atout was a level above this opposition on Saturday, he is already an exceptional prospect.

Whether he will win the Supreme is another matter as immediately after Saturday’s race Mullins described Un Atout as a stayer. This suggests a preference for stepping up in trip meaning that the Neptune could be the long term target. Nothing he has shown so far indicates a lack of speed for two miles, he has barely come off the bridle in two starts over the trip, conversely he will clearly have no issue over further having finished full of running each time and he is closely related to Sir Des Champs, who is out of Un Atout’s half-sister (both are by Robin Des Champs). He is very likely to be just as effective at both trips, the more important factor might be the other potential runners for the owners and the trainer. Willie Mullins’ main hope for the Neptune at this stage is Champagne Fever, he surely had his final run at two miles over hurdles last time, so unless he goes all the way up to three miles Mullins will have to aim Un Atout at the Supreme to avoid a clash. He did run both Sous Les Cieux and Make Your Mark in the Neptune last year so maybe he won’t mind having more than one runner, the real complication is the owners. They did have two runners in the Supreme last season thus it could be irrelevant but with Don Cossack they have another serious Neptune candidate and I would be very surprised if Gigginstown Stud were not keen to keep him and Un Atout apart. There has been talk of Don Cossack missing Cheltenham altogether with connections’ eyes firmly on chasing next season, leaving the path open for a Un Atout to have a tilt at the Neptune, but I find it hard to believe that Gordon Elliot would skip the meeting with his very best unless the ground was fast.

With such an inexperienced horse, like Un Atout, there will of course be doubts and there are certainly question marks over his suitability for the Cheltenham Festival. For instance, a minor concern is that we don’t know how he’ll cope being in and around horses during a race yet or whether he needs to be in front. I suspect connections have a huge amount of confidence in the horse and they have merely kept things simple in races they expect to win, such is his ability tactics should be immaterial. Another concern is that Un Atout has so far only run in testing conditions apparently relishing them each time, but as a close relative of Sir Des Champs one would expect him to handle the prevailing ground in March and he isn’t a heavy topped horse in the mould of Bog Warrior or Don Cossack. He will probably improve for the quicker ground and if his season turns out how I anticipate then he will head to Cheltenham as Ireland’s best novice hurdler.

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