Horses To Follow

There is a comprehensive list of horses to follow for the National Hunt season here at CHELTENHAMZONE.COM including five of my own.

Supreme Novices Update: My Tent Or Yours (Huntingdon)

Freezing temperatures and snow are two forecasts which bring dread to those within racing. Sadly, that is what we face and informative cards at Newbury, Wincanton and Taunton are all under threat this week whilst the highest profile meetings on Saturday, at Ascot and Haydock, are also in danger with the loss of the Supreme Novices’ Trial hurdle a real possibility. The Grade 1 Victor Chandler Chase may be a more pressing issue but that will, no doubt, be rearranged, probably on Cheltenham Trials day, whereas the Supreme trial will just be lost and it is events such as these which interest me most in the build up to the Festival. I hope I am being unnecessarily pessimistic and the frost covers will do their job but I find it hard to believe that racing will be unaffected. Fortunately, we did nearly manage a full, if slightly uninspiring, programme this weekend (only Fakenham failed to beat the weather) and the highlight, in terms of the Supreme Novices’ Hurdle build up, came on Friday at Huntingdon.

My Tent Or Yours has been highly touted ever since his bumper debut and he looked a potential Supreme Novice even before his hurdling exploits. The pace and class he exhibited in bumpers, along with his grade 1 form marked him out as strong candidate, then after his hurdling debut, where he defeated subsequent grade 1 winning hurdler Taquin Du Seuil he was rightly among the favourites for Cheltenham’s curtain raiser. His next run at Newbury could be described, harshly in my view, as a blip but there were positives to be garnered from it, especially the improvement in his jumping, and ensuing events have demonstrated that this run was merely a means to an end. In order to qualify for the valuable Betfair Handicap Hurdle, at Newbury in February, My Tent Or Yours had to have run three times over hurdles prior to January 13th. It was clear before the race at Newbury that Henderson would have preferred not to run him, and he would probably have pulled him out on that ground had there not been this ‘plan’ but in order to get a third run in, he had to run that day. As a result, McCoy was hardly aggressive once he knew the winner was not for catching, he had future targets in mind, the most imminent being his third run which was to come at Huntingdon just thirteen days later. This was no ‘gimme’, with a pair of high class bumper performers, namely Population and Royal Guardsman, up against him, as well as God’s Own, an impressive winning debutant over hurdles. Population and Royal Guardsman had been disappointing on their hurdling debuts for different reasons but more was expected on Friday, however neither of them, nor any of his other rivals, were capable of giving meaningful opposition to AP McCoy’s mount.

My Tent Or Yours, as was the case on his two previous starts this season, was consciously held up in rear by McCoy. Under restraint, he was keen again and he pulled his way into midfield almost immediately. Nicky Henderson said after the race that he is concerned about his charge not using his energy in the right way and again here he travelled noticeably strongly but unlike Newbury, McCoy let My Tent Or Yours take him forward. He was eventually taken to the front on the approach to three out and from then on the race looked in safe keeping.

Royal Guardsman was again bitterly disappointing here, with the change of trainer seemingly doing him no favours. It could be that they are struggling to get him fit and he needed his first two runs of the season, in which case it is possible to give him one more chance. I hope he can get back to his bumper form as he treated two high class rivals, Atlantic Roller and Supreme second favourite River Maigue, with contempt at Ascot last season. He should really be a novice hurdler worth following. As should Population, who has recovered from whatever ailed him at Cheltenham and he put in a much more encouraging performance this weekend. We should see improvement from him on better ground as, like My Tent Or Yours, he showed plenty of pace in bumpers.

This was a more than reasonable novices' hurdle and connections of My Tent Or Yours can only take positives from it. In comparison to his hurdling debut, where his jumping was sloppy, he hurdled quickly and barely touched a flight. The only jump one could possibly question was at the final hurdle but he was being eased up almost as soon as he crossed the second last, therefore running down that one obstacle was completely excusable. This performance put him back on track for the Supreme, a track I doubt he was ever off, and nothing this side of the Irish Sea likely to head for the Supreme has left such a striking impression. I would be surprised if there were many faster national hunt horses in training and assuming the ground isn’t heavy, as it was on his last unsuccessful trip to Newbury, I can’t see anything in the entries for the Betfair Hurdle being able to live with him. He is deservedly favourite for that, as I type, and his price for the Supreme can only contract with a strong showing there. My Tent Or Yours still appears to be underestimated by a number of firms with double figure prices widely available.

The one concern around him, which has recently arisen, is the high profile acquisition of Supreme Novices’ favourite, Jezki, by JP McManus. Some have suggested this is a sign that he does not fancy what he already has for the Supreme and or that it increases the likelihood of My Tent Or Yours missing the race, in favour of a tilt at the Neptune or Aintree. I take the view that McManus enjoys having a clutch of top class horses, he doesn’t seem to mind running more than one in the best races, and he already has experience of Jezki’s family with the likes of Jered and Jenari proving successful purchases. It could be described as a no-brainer for a man in his position. I also struggle to believe that My Tent Or Yours will stay the Neptune trip, or at least be anywhere near as good over it. Hence, that option is defunct, while McManus has used the Betfair Hurdle as a stepping stone to the Supreme before, with both Get Me Out Of Here and Darlan going on to fill the runners-up berth at Cheltenham, as such there should be no issue with repeating such a feat, just the hope of going one better in March. Nicky Henderson has been convinced since the start of the season that this son of Desert Prince is his best novice hurdle prospect, thus it will take some serious persuasion for him not to run this Supreme Novices’ Hurdle aspirant at Cheltenham.

Supreme Novices Update: Un Atout

Arguably, the horse to take from this weekend with the Supreme in mind didn’t even run. The form of My Tent Or Yours’ commanding win at Ascot was comprehensively boosted by Taquin Du Seuil on Friday when he took the Grade 2 novices’ hurdle at Sandown with consummate ease. The price of My Tent Or Yours for the Supreme collapsed after the event and considering how poorly he jumped against Taquin Du Seuil, one could be forgiven for holding sky high expectations for Nicky Henderson’s charge once he gets his act together. Taquin Du Seuil won on Friday over two-and-a-half miles, he appreciated the soft ground and must be thought of more as a Neptune Investment Management Novices' Hurdle horse. His trainer, Jonjo O’Neil, was not ruling the Supreme out, however, and he may have a difficult decision to make come March.

Another trainer likely to have some tough decisions to make in March is Willie Mullins. He has a host of novice hurdlers capable of running over trips between two and three miles and this weekend we saw another one join the ranks at Navan in the shape of Un Atout.

Un Atout arrived at Willie Mullins’ yard with a tall reputation and he was sent off at 2/7 on his racecourse debut in a bumper at Naas. With Patrick Mullins in the saddle he settled comfortably in front with just the outsider of seven, Foxland, for company. Unsurprisingly, Foxland dropped away relatively early and it was then left to main market rival, Directors Forum, to challenge, but while Mullins sat motionless, content with his mount cruising along, the rider on Directors Forum was hard at work on the final bend and eventually dropped away too, leaving Emily O to give chase. She may have got within four lengths but then at the two furlong pole Mullins nudged him forward and Un Atout stretched clear in a dominant, destructive manner, finishing 24 lengths ahead of the runner-up. This performance in early January was, to my eyes, the most impressive bumper display of last season. Willie Mullins had hoped to run him in one more bumper but he suffered muscle problems and was sensibly put away with a campaign over obstacles in mind.

For anyone who had seen his bumper, Un Atout’s hurdling debut at Navan on Saturday was highly anticipated. Over two miles, like his bumper, he was again happy to settle in front. This time, with Davy Russell on board to dictate the pace, nothing in the race was willing to challenge him for the lead, and he managed to grab a four length advantage. The pace was steady and a number in behind fought for their heads, while Un Atout was left alone able to have a clear sight of his hurdles. He jumped the first quickly but then skied the second and at the fifth he just clipped the top yet he was still sharp over it. He cleared the fourth last in style, making the ideal shape while once again being swift through the air. Russell let the field close up on the approach to the straight with the horse in second moving onto his tail. Then at the third last Un Atout got in too close and as Davy Russell shook him up to just get away from the flight after the sticky jump, Un Atout accelerated, quickly re-extending the lead. Russell sat straight back up and barely moved again as he was able to maintain the four length advantage right to the line with Fickle Fortune finishing well for second.

The most striking thing about this run was the ease with which Un Atout did it. There appeared to be so little effort involved for the horse, seemingly cantering from start to finish. While he does have room for improvement in his jumping Davy Russell’s mount was actually quite nimble over his hurdles, picking his legs up quickly when in close. He may not have put in the exuberant leaps stablemate Champagne Fever is capable of but he didn’t cede ground to his pursuers and was in fact deceptively fast from one side of the hurdle to another. I am sure as he gains experience his jumping will become an asset, or as they say in French; ‘un atout’.

Often when a heavily odds-on shot readily wins a maiden hurdle there is little of note in behind, only once upped in class can we really see how good he or she is. At Navan, Un Atout did what was expected of him, cruising to victory from an inferior field with a rise in class, no doubt, imminent. On this occasion, though, there were at least two very useful bumper performers with potential to be high class novice hurdlers in against him and they were dismissed with contempt. Noel Meade's Fickle Fortune, in receipt of 7lbs from Un Atout, had looked so exciting when winning her bumper and has been unlucky not to win since. Her problem has always been her inability to settle, but she is a pacey individual who will make her mark over hurdles and she finished a very decent second here. Some Article, purchased by J.P. McManus after convincingly winning the Goffs Land Rover Bumper at the Punchestown Festival, is also expected to make a very useful novice hurdler. While he was keen through the race, Some Article was essentially outclassed by Willie Mullins’ charge, unable to pick up as the leader sauntered away on the bridle. Un Atout was a level above this opposition on Saturday, he is already an exceptional prospect.

Whether he will win the Supreme is another matter as immediately after Saturday’s race Mullins described Un Atout as a stayer. This suggests a preference for stepping up in trip meaning that the Neptune could be the long term target. Nothing he has shown so far indicates a lack of speed for two miles, he has barely come off the bridle in two starts over the trip, conversely he will clearly have no issue over further having finished full of running each time and he is closely related to Sir Des Champs, who is out of Un Atout’s half-sister (both are by Robin Des Champs). He is very likely to be just as effective at both trips, the more important factor might be the other potential runners for the owners and the trainer. Willie Mullins’ main hope for the Neptune at this stage is Champagne Fever, he surely had his final run at two miles over hurdles last time, so unless he goes all the way up to three miles Mullins will have to aim Un Atout at the Supreme to avoid a clash. He did run both Sous Les Cieux and Make Your Mark in the Neptune last year so maybe he won’t mind having more than one runner, the real complication is the owners. They did have two runners in the Supreme last season thus it could be irrelevant but with Don Cossack they have another serious Neptune candidate and I would be very surprised if Gigginstown Stud were not keen to keep him and Un Atout apart. There has been talk of Don Cossack missing Cheltenham altogether with connections’ eyes firmly on chasing next season, leaving the path open for a Un Atout to have a tilt at the Neptune, but I find it hard to believe that Gordon Elliot would skip the meeting with his very best unless the ground was fast.

With such an inexperienced horse, like Un Atout, there will of course be doubts and there are certainly question marks over his suitability for the Cheltenham Festival. For instance, a minor concern is that we don’t know how he’ll cope being in and around horses during a race yet or whether he needs to be in front. I suspect connections have a huge amount of confidence in the horse and they have merely kept things simple in races they expect to win, such is his ability tactics should be immaterial. Another concern is that Un Atout has so far only run in testing conditions apparently relishing them each time, but as a close relative of Sir Des Champs one would expect him to handle the prevailing ground in March and he isn’t a heavy topped horse in the mould of Bog Warrior or Don Cossack. He will probably improve for the quicker ground and if his season turns out how I anticipate then he will head to Cheltenham as Ireland’s best novice hurdler.